This document discusses India becoming a trillion dollar economy and the rising value of the rupee. It summarizes that rising inflation led the RBI to raise interest rates, but this caused a surge in capital inflows rather than less borrowing. The RBI then intervened in currency markets, inflating money supply. While a stronger rupee helps reduce inflation, it could hurt exporters if significant. The appreciation has been modest against most currencies but larger recently. Exporter profitability is high but some labor sectors could be impacted. The RBI has options like sterilization to control money supply effects from intervening in markets.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
This presentation consist of the theoretical concepts of interest rate, economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, foreign flow of funds, budget deficit. And further data analysis is given based on 5 years monetary policy statement.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
The document provides an economic and market update for November 2013. It discusses positive performance in global equity markets and stability in the Indian rupee and debt markets in October. The Chief Investment Officer notes that while markets have reached new highs, fundamentals are also improving as earnings growth is catching up to price increases. Some market optimism also reflects speculation around the next elections in India. Overall the outlook is cautiously positive but volatility could increase from unexpected events.
- Global equity markets declined last week due to concerns about the EU economy, while bond yields eased. Emerging markets underperformed.
- In Asia, Chinese exports and imports grew sharply but inflation eased. Several Asian markets rose while others fell.
- European political issues weighed on markets. The ECB expressed concerns over the euro's strength. UK industrial output grew.
- US markets outperformed on positive economic news. Factory orders rose but services growth slowed. Dell will be taken private in a leveraged buyout.
The document provides an economic and market update for investors. It discusses positive macroeconomic data from India including rising industrial production and falling inflation. The budget focuses on infrastructure growth. Globally, the US and Europe are recovering while emerging markets are benefiting from foreign inflows. The document recommends remaining invested in equities and outlines positive views for several sectors like banking, energy, and automobiles. It provides a target of 29,300 for the Sensex by the end of the year based on earnings growth expectations.
- Global equity markets closed July on a positive note due to hopes of strong economic data and expectations that stimulus measures will continue. Emerging markets saw some declines.
- In Asia, Japanese and Chinese markets rose while India, Indonesia, and Taiwan fell. Chinese economic indicators showed some recovery in manufacturing and services.
- European stocks rose on good economic news and central bank support. Unemployment fell in the Eurozone. Central banks in several countries kept rates unchanged.
- US stocks climbed as jobs reports suggested delayed stimulus reduction. GDP growth beat forecasts. Brazil strengthened its currency while a biotech firm was acquired.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
This presentation consist of the theoretical concepts of interest rate, economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, foreign flow of funds, budget deficit. And further data analysis is given based on 5 years monetary policy statement.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
The document provides an economic and market update for November 2013. It discusses positive performance in global equity markets and stability in the Indian rupee and debt markets in October. The Chief Investment Officer notes that while markets have reached new highs, fundamentals are also improving as earnings growth is catching up to price increases. Some market optimism also reflects speculation around the next elections in India. Overall the outlook is cautiously positive but volatility could increase from unexpected events.
- Global equity markets declined last week due to concerns about the EU economy, while bond yields eased. Emerging markets underperformed.
- In Asia, Chinese exports and imports grew sharply but inflation eased. Several Asian markets rose while others fell.
- European political issues weighed on markets. The ECB expressed concerns over the euro's strength. UK industrial output grew.
- US markets outperformed on positive economic news. Factory orders rose but services growth slowed. Dell will be taken private in a leveraged buyout.
The document provides an economic and market update for investors. It discusses positive macroeconomic data from India including rising industrial production and falling inflation. The budget focuses on infrastructure growth. Globally, the US and Europe are recovering while emerging markets are benefiting from foreign inflows. The document recommends remaining invested in equities and outlines positive views for several sectors like banking, energy, and automobiles. It provides a target of 29,300 for the Sensex by the end of the year based on earnings growth expectations.
- Global equity markets closed July on a positive note due to hopes of strong economic data and expectations that stimulus measures will continue. Emerging markets saw some declines.
- In Asia, Japanese and Chinese markets rose while India, Indonesia, and Taiwan fell. Chinese economic indicators showed some recovery in manufacturing and services.
- European stocks rose on good economic news and central bank support. Unemployment fell in the Eurozone. Central banks in several countries kept rates unchanged.
- US stocks climbed as jobs reports suggested delayed stimulus reduction. GDP growth beat forecasts. Brazil strengthened its currency while a biotech firm was acquired.
This document provides a summary of the global market performance in the second quarter of 2017. It discusses the returns of various stock and bond asset classes in the US, international developed markets, and emerging markets. The US stock market posted modest gains while international developed and emerging markets outperformed. Broad market indices in non-US markets and emerging markets recorded similar returns. The value effect was generally negative across all markets. The document also provides country-level performance for selected developed and emerging markets.
This document provides an economic and financial market update for November 2012. It includes numerous charts and graphs analyzing indicators related to the U.S. and global economies, such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, stock and bond markets, housing, jobs, bank lending, exports, and commodity prices. Several charts compare the U.S. to other G10 countries. The document discusses whether the recoveries are sustainable or if new risks may emerge. It also contemplates various economic scenarios and possibilities for 2012-2013.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was estimated at 4.8% for the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's revised rate of 4.7% but still below 5%. Industrial production grew by only 1.0% for the full fiscal year. Inflation rates have fallen, with WPI hitting a 41-month low of 4.89% in April. The RBI recently cut interest rates, citing lower inflation and slowing growth. However, the economic growth outlook remains cautious as investment activity remains subdued.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for various markets including equity, debt, commodities, real estate, and forex. It discusses recent inflation and growth trends in India and globally. Recommendations are given to overweight sectors like healthcare, telecom and IT while remaining neutral or underweight on others given the domestic and international economic environment.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the last quarter. The report also illustrates the performance of globally diversified portfolios and features a topic of the quarter.
1) Australia has experienced the longest period of continuous economic growth of any developed country, averaging 3.3% annual GDP growth for 21 years without a recession.
2) Australia is well positioned to benefit from Asia's economic rise given its proximity and exports of commodities and other goods/services to the region.
3) Despite its dependence on mining and commodities, Australia has a highly developed services sector accounting for over 80% of its GDP, and has a very business friendly climate according to various indices.
The document discusses the shifting global economic landscape, with emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) contributing increasingly to global output. It analyzes GDP and economic growth projections for BRIC nations and other emerging markets over the next 40-50 years. Publishers are finding opportunities in these growing markets through expanding operations, accessing new talent pools and responding to rising research and education levels.
The document provides an analysis of global macroeconomic and market trends. It discusses the Fed potentially shifting from quantitative easing to forward guidance in early 2014, and China beginning belated deleveraging. Excess liquidity has driven asset prices higher globally. The document also examines structural shifts impacting the US labor market and challenges related to the Fed's exit from quantitative easing.
Crude shocks keep India in smiles - Dr B. Yerram Raju, Nitin GuptaD Murali ☆
Crude shocks keep India in smiles - Dr B. Yerram Raju, Nitin Gupta - Article published in Business Advisor, dated - December 25, 2014 http://www.magzter.com/IN/Shrinikethan/Business-Advisor/Business/
The document summarizes the key factors that have contributed to the rise of the Nifty index past 10,000 points and an outlook on its future trajectory. It notes that strong corporate earnings growth, positive macroeconomic conditions in India, and rising domestic investments from mutual funds are likely to support the market going forward. Some risks like a slowdown in reforms or rising NPAs are also mentioned. The document concludes by projecting the Nifty to continue its northward trend over the next year, reaching over 11,800 points by December 2018.
The document provides a weekly market review covering international and domestic (India) equity, debt, currency and macroeconomic trends.
Key developments internationally included a boost to global markets from a US debt deal and Chinese economic data, with easing expectations of US tapering. In Asia, most markets gained and Chinese GDP growth was higher than expected. European markets rallied on positive sentiment and UK data showed better employment. In the Americas, the US resolution of its budget issues supported markets.
Domestically, Indian equity markets ended the week higher despite mid and small caps underperforming. Bond markets weakened on higher inflation data stoking rate hike expectations. The rupee weakened marginally against the dollar.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
On October 15, 2015 Tracey McNaughton from UBS Wealth Management presented an educational webinar at netwealth. Tracey is Executive Director and Head of Investment Strategy, Global Investment Solutions at UBS.
This document discusses whether the current market conditions represent a correction or bear market. It notes that the Sensex has corrected close to 20% over the past 7 months, meeting the definition of a correction. True bear markets are fewer and involve declines of over 30% lasting more than 9 months. While global factors are negatively impacting markets, many are ultimately positive for India. The document argues this is a correction providing an opportunity to increase allocations to quality Indian equities, as India should emerge stronger once the external headwinds pass.
This document discusses Indonesia's experience with the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the current global financial crisis. [1] Indonesia was severely impacted by the 1997 crisis, with its GDP dropping by 13.5% and inflation reaching 77%. [2] However, Indonesia recovered well and saw strong economic growth and stock market performance in the early 2000s. [3] The global financial crisis has again impacted Indonesia through declining commodity prices and trade, but the government has implemented stimulus measures and monetary policy to reduce inflation and support domestic demand.
cushman & wakefield the economy cre and investment ideas -Matthew Marshall
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis of the commercial real estate market by the Chief Economist. It summarizes recent volatility in the stock market and factors contributing to it like China's equity plunge and falling oil prices. While these factors have caused discomfort, a continued economic downturn is not expected as U.S. job growth remains strong and negative interest rates are driving more foreign capital into the U.S. The outlook remains positive for commercial real estate as recent fundraising has been strong and major U.S. job markets continue to see strong transaction volumes.
Trans pacific strategic economic partnership agreement - SingaporeNouman Khan
The document provides information about the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPSEP), an international trade agreement, and details regarding Singapore, one of the signatory countries. It discusses key aspects of Singapore's economy, including its position as a global trade hub, highly skilled workforce, low taxes, and foreign investment. Major imports and exports are also summarized, with electronics, machinery, and oil comprising significant trade volumes with partners like China, the US, and within Southeast Asia.
Presentation of the Global Mobile Market and opportunities to finalist Mobile Computing students at Aveiro 's University.
Trillion dollar toothbrushes - a quick intro to the amazing Mobile World.
How mobile are we? In this talk you'll learn about what's going on in this wonderful World, why you should care and what this means to you in the near future.
You have a business idea, but what's next?Daniel Mcgaw
This document discusses the steps a business founder should take after having an initial business idea. It recommends defining personal goals and validating the business idea with customers before proceeding. The key steps are to create a list of questions to ask target customers, conduct interviews asking open-ended questions and "why" repeatedly, take notes, look for patterns in the feedback, and refine the idea based on what is learned. It advises iterating this customer validation process until the idea proves viable or is discarded.
This document provides a summary of the global market performance in the second quarter of 2017. It discusses the returns of various stock and bond asset classes in the US, international developed markets, and emerging markets. The US stock market posted modest gains while international developed and emerging markets outperformed. Broad market indices in non-US markets and emerging markets recorded similar returns. The value effect was generally negative across all markets. The document also provides country-level performance for selected developed and emerging markets.
This document provides an economic and financial market update for November 2012. It includes numerous charts and graphs analyzing indicators related to the U.S. and global economies, such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, stock and bond markets, housing, jobs, bank lending, exports, and commodity prices. Several charts compare the U.S. to other G10 countries. The document discusses whether the recoveries are sustainable or if new risks may emerge. It also contemplates various economic scenarios and possibilities for 2012-2013.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was estimated at 4.8% for the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's revised rate of 4.7% but still below 5%. Industrial production grew by only 1.0% for the full fiscal year. Inflation rates have fallen, with WPI hitting a 41-month low of 4.89% in April. The RBI recently cut interest rates, citing lower inflation and slowing growth. However, the economic growth outlook remains cautious as investment activity remains subdued.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for various markets including equity, debt, commodities, real estate, and forex. It discusses recent inflation and growth trends in India and globally. Recommendations are given to overweight sectors like healthcare, telecom and IT while remaining neutral or underweight on others given the domestic and international economic environment.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the last quarter. The report also illustrates the performance of globally diversified portfolios and features a topic of the quarter.
1) Australia has experienced the longest period of continuous economic growth of any developed country, averaging 3.3% annual GDP growth for 21 years without a recession.
2) Australia is well positioned to benefit from Asia's economic rise given its proximity and exports of commodities and other goods/services to the region.
3) Despite its dependence on mining and commodities, Australia has a highly developed services sector accounting for over 80% of its GDP, and has a very business friendly climate according to various indices.
The document discusses the shifting global economic landscape, with emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) contributing increasingly to global output. It analyzes GDP and economic growth projections for BRIC nations and other emerging markets over the next 40-50 years. Publishers are finding opportunities in these growing markets through expanding operations, accessing new talent pools and responding to rising research and education levels.
The document provides an analysis of global macroeconomic and market trends. It discusses the Fed potentially shifting from quantitative easing to forward guidance in early 2014, and China beginning belated deleveraging. Excess liquidity has driven asset prices higher globally. The document also examines structural shifts impacting the US labor market and challenges related to the Fed's exit from quantitative easing.
Crude shocks keep India in smiles - Dr B. Yerram Raju, Nitin GuptaD Murali ☆
Crude shocks keep India in smiles - Dr B. Yerram Raju, Nitin Gupta - Article published in Business Advisor, dated - December 25, 2014 http://www.magzter.com/IN/Shrinikethan/Business-Advisor/Business/
The document summarizes the key factors that have contributed to the rise of the Nifty index past 10,000 points and an outlook on its future trajectory. It notes that strong corporate earnings growth, positive macroeconomic conditions in India, and rising domestic investments from mutual funds are likely to support the market going forward. Some risks like a slowdown in reforms or rising NPAs are also mentioned. The document concludes by projecting the Nifty to continue its northward trend over the next year, reaching over 11,800 points by December 2018.
The document provides a weekly market review covering international and domestic (India) equity, debt, currency and macroeconomic trends.
Key developments internationally included a boost to global markets from a US debt deal and Chinese economic data, with easing expectations of US tapering. In Asia, most markets gained and Chinese GDP growth was higher than expected. European markets rallied on positive sentiment and UK data showed better employment. In the Americas, the US resolution of its budget issues supported markets.
Domestically, Indian equity markets ended the week higher despite mid and small caps underperforming. Bond markets weakened on higher inflation data stoking rate hike expectations. The rupee weakened marginally against the dollar.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
On October 15, 2015 Tracey McNaughton from UBS Wealth Management presented an educational webinar at netwealth. Tracey is Executive Director and Head of Investment Strategy, Global Investment Solutions at UBS.
This document discusses whether the current market conditions represent a correction or bear market. It notes that the Sensex has corrected close to 20% over the past 7 months, meeting the definition of a correction. True bear markets are fewer and involve declines of over 30% lasting more than 9 months. While global factors are negatively impacting markets, many are ultimately positive for India. The document argues this is a correction providing an opportunity to increase allocations to quality Indian equities, as India should emerge stronger once the external headwinds pass.
This document discusses Indonesia's experience with the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the current global financial crisis. [1] Indonesia was severely impacted by the 1997 crisis, with its GDP dropping by 13.5% and inflation reaching 77%. [2] However, Indonesia recovered well and saw strong economic growth and stock market performance in the early 2000s. [3] The global financial crisis has again impacted Indonesia through declining commodity prices and trade, but the government has implemented stimulus measures and monetary policy to reduce inflation and support domestic demand.
cushman & wakefield the economy cre and investment ideas -Matthew Marshall
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis of the commercial real estate market by the Chief Economist. It summarizes recent volatility in the stock market and factors contributing to it like China's equity plunge and falling oil prices. While these factors have caused discomfort, a continued economic downturn is not expected as U.S. job growth remains strong and negative interest rates are driving more foreign capital into the U.S. The outlook remains positive for commercial real estate as recent fundraising has been strong and major U.S. job markets continue to see strong transaction volumes.
Trans pacific strategic economic partnership agreement - SingaporeNouman Khan
The document provides information about the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPSEP), an international trade agreement, and details regarding Singapore, one of the signatory countries. It discusses key aspects of Singapore's economy, including its position as a global trade hub, highly skilled workforce, low taxes, and foreign investment. Major imports and exports are also summarized, with electronics, machinery, and oil comprising significant trade volumes with partners like China, the US, and within Southeast Asia.
Presentation of the Global Mobile Market and opportunities to finalist Mobile Computing students at Aveiro 's University.
Trillion dollar toothbrushes - a quick intro to the amazing Mobile World.
How mobile are we? In this talk you'll learn about what's going on in this wonderful World, why you should care and what this means to you in the near future.
You have a business idea, but what's next?Daniel Mcgaw
This document discusses the steps a business founder should take after having an initial business idea. It recommends defining personal goals and validating the business idea with customers before proceeding. The key steps are to create a list of questions to ask target customers, conduct interviews asking open-ended questions and "why" repeatedly, take notes, look for patterns in the feedback, and refine the idea based on what is learned. It advises iterating this customer validation process until the idea proves viable or is discarded.
your role in generating billion ideas of greenVisualBee.com
This document outlines several key factors that contribute to environmental degradation, including deforestation, waste, soil erosion, global warming, air pollution, water pollution, overpopulation, and nuclear accidents. It then discusses each of these factors in more detail. Specifically, it explains how deforestation removes trees, waste pollutes air and water, soil erosion is caused by various natural forces, global warming is driven by greenhouse gases, air pollution harms health and ecosystems, water pollution contaminates water bodies, overpopulation strains resources, and radiation accidents release harmful materials. Finally, it recommends several practices to promote a cleaner environment, such as afforestation, waste reduction, infrastructure improvements, proper waste disposal, reduced radiation, and lower pollution.
Shirish Andhare's presentation at eComm 2008eComm2008
The document discusses new opportunities for telecommunications companies to generate revenue through opening up their platforms and services to developers and new types of applications. It suggests that telecom companies could unlock over $1 trillion in value by shifting from closed business models to more open models that allow for multi-play services and by addressing challenges like understanding customer needs and overcoming reluctance to change. The presentation advocates for an approach of cooperation between telecom companies and startups to drive innovation in new user experiences and communication services.
New Great Startup ideas 2015 that can make you millionaireRishiRaj Purohit
The document lists 21 potential startup ideas across a variety of industries including energy, artificial intelligence, robots, biotechnology, healthcare, education, transportation, and telecommunications. It suggests that startups developing new sources of clean energy, advancing artificial intelligence applications, making healthcare more affordable and preventative, and improving education access could be revolutionary. Overall, the document proposes that startups tackling major problems in these industries have strong potential to be highly successful.
La teoría del color describe dos sistemas de colores primarios: colores primarios de luz y colores primarios de pigmento. La teoría del color también incluye conceptos como el círculo cromático, la saturación, el tono y las escalas y gamas de colores.
The document outlines the process of taking an idea to a successful business. It discusses that the process is non-linear and involves multiple phases, including business design, feasibility analysis, business planning, launching the business, growing the business, and exiting the business. It provides overviews of articles on different phases of the process and recommends developing a staged, gated process to plan innovations.
The document discusses the daily deals industry, which has grown into a trillion dollar industry by offering consumers discounted deals and merchants a way to attract new customers. Some key points made include that daily deal sites have high merchant satisfaction and repeat rates, with 43% of merchants in May having run a prior deal. The industry could continue growing by expanding into new geographies, demographic groups, and categories. The document also suggests the industry may move beyond email deals and pre-paid models, reducing friction for users. It remains uncertain which companies like Google, Amazon or existing daily deal sites will dominate the future of the industry.
Starting Lean: How to Find Out If Your Business Idea Has Potential In Days an...Kissmetrics on SlideShare
Starting Lean: How to Find Out If Your Idea Has Potential In Days Not Years October 2014 Trevor Owens, Founder of QuickMVP and Lean Startup Machine
Startups Are NOT Small Versions of Big Companies
The Startup Curve Initial Enthusiasm Reality Sets In TROUGH OF SORROW Before Startup Scale Product/ Market Fit! Starts Working Experimenting & Pivoting Source: Paul Graham; avc.com Time Happiness
STARTUPS SEARCH
COMPANIES EXECUTE
A NEW MANAGEMENT
Principles of Lean Startup 1 Minimum Viable Products 2 Pivots 3 Early Adopters
1. Minimum Viable Products
2. Pivots
Famous Pivots
3. Early Adopters
Now for the good stuff…
EXPERIMENT = MVP 1 Hypothesis 2 Riskiest Assumption 3 Method 4 Success Criteria
1. Hypothesis “I BELIEVE customer HAS A PROBLEM WITH problem.”
2. Riskiest Assumption
3. Three Methods
Interview Pre-Sell Concierge
4. Success Criteria
Start Your Free KISSmetrics Trial LOG IN WITH GOOGLE
EXPERIMENT = MVP 1 Hypothesis 2 Riskiest Assumption 3 Method 4 Success Criteria
Problem Solution Riskiest Assumption Success Criterion Result & Decision Learning Limit: 5 Min Limit: 10 Min result least to the is... # of strong customers. CARE ABOUT ENVIRONMENT INTERVIEW 5 / 20 GET OUT OF THE BUILDING! 0/20 INVALID ! PIVOT! SKINNY TIE ! BUYING LIFESTYLE
RISKIEST ASSUMPTIONS 1 Is there demand in other cities? 2 Is there demand abroad? 3 Are people satisfied with the method? 4 Can we do workshops frequently enough?
KEY METRICS 1 Pain 2 Customer Acquisition Cost 3 Margin / Virality 44 Market Size
“I don’t look for five-foot fences to jump over, I look for one-foot fences to step over.” -Warren Buffet
RISKIEST ASSUMPTIONS 1 Four Key Metrics? 2 Will they launch a page? 3 Will they place an ad? 4 Can we acquire 500 paid users?
A Trillion Dollar Market By the People, For the Peoplefoundationcap
The document discusses the rise of marketplace lending as an alternative to traditional banking. It predicts that marketplace lending will become a trillion dollar market by 2025. Marketplace lending platforms allow borrowers and lenders to connect directly, removing traditional banks from the process. This lowers costs for borrowers through lower interest rates and provides higher returns for lenders. The document argues that consumers are dissatisfied with traditional banks and increasingly turning to marketplace lending platforms for their improved convenience, lower costs, and higher yields. Securitization of loans through these platforms will further validate and grow the marketplace lending industry.
- Banks have become inefficient and unloved by customers, particularly millennials, yet still generate large profits due to the net interest spread between low borrowing costs and high lending rates.
- New financial technology companies are poised to disrupt and replace banks by developing products that are simpler, more transparent, reduce friction, and provide better analytics/customization for customers.
- The author identifies several emerging areas for financial technology innovation that could revolutionize industries like lending, payments, insurance, and investing if concepts like near-zero origination costs, real-time underwriting, distributed ownership models, and eliminating transaction clearinghouses are realized.
This document summarizes the key elements that top angel investors in Canada look for in evaluating business opportunities based on research into their decision making processes. The 8 elements identified are: 1) Market potential, 2) Product adoption, 3) Protectability, 4) Business experience, 5) Product status, 6) Route to market, 7) Customer engagement, and 8) Financial projections. The document provides a high-level description of what top angel investors look for in terms of each of these 8 elements when evaluating a potential business opportunity.
The document summarizes techniques for generating great business ideas:
1. Combining existing products or ideas in novel ways. Examples include combining online food sales with gourmet products.
2. Leveraging industry knowledge and expertise to identify opportunities. Drawing on work history and areas of deep knowledge.
3. Copying proven business models that have worked for others. Many successful companies have been copies of innovations.
4. Getting ideas from "lead users" who develop solutions to their own needs before others. Users often innovate to solve their own problems.
5. Carefully observing problems or trends in areas like newspapers to identify opportunities. Innovations often come from spotting issues others have not addressed.
The document discusses Accounting Standard 3 on Cash Flow Statements in India. It defines key terms like cash, cash equivalents and cash flows. It describes the different types of cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities and how they should be classified. It provides guidance on treatment of interest, dividends, taxes, foreign currency transactions and other items in the cash flow statement.
In 2014 LMAX Exchange traded over $1 trillion dollars. The Sunday Times named us the fastest growing tech company in the UK and we won Oracle’s Duke's Choice Award for the most innovative programming framework.In this talk we reveal how we develop software. We cover all aspects from our design philosophy, how we practice agile to our continuous integration pipeline and show how far you can go with automatically testing everything.
Antonio Molina
Antonio is a senior software developer at LMAX Exchange. He has 10+ years of software development experience in consulting services, e-commerce and financial companies. He is a software and business enthusiast who has promoted various projects related to information technology from conferences to startups.He loves working in crazy and challenging environments where high-quality software development and a clever group of engineers can make the difference and win the game.
Nick Zeeb
Nick is a senior Java developer at LMAX Exchange. He has expertise in high-performance Java systems and is passionate about continually improving the way we build software.Nick is a leader in the London Java Community and holds a Master’s degree in Engineering and Computer Science from the University of Oxford
The document outlines a new recipe for turning an idea into a successful business venture. It contrasts the old recipe of working alone in a garage with limited resources to the new recipe of building a team, securing funding, validating the market, and iterating based on customer feedback. The new recipe is presented as a 20 step process that emphasizes learning, adapting, selling, securing investment, and eventually scaling and selling the business for profit. While success is not guaranteed, following this rigorous process combined with a great idea, team, and resources can lead to meaningful success, though it will require many years of hard work.
This document discusses problems faced by women entrepreneurs in India and organizations that support them. It outlines 11 common problems women entrepreneurs face including shortage of finance, raw materials, marketing facilities, and mobility. It also notes family responsibilities, lack of education/training, low risk tolerance, and social attitudes as challenges. The document then describes 8 organizations that provide various forms of support to women entrepreneurs in India such as financial assistance, training programs, technology upgrades, and marketing/export support. These organizations include SIDBI, SIDO, CWEI, WIT, SEWA, SHGs, FIWE, and NABARD.
The Internet of Things: Are Organizations Ready For A Multi-Trillion Dollar P...Capgemini
The potential of IoT is immense, with a trillion dollar potential. Gartner predicts the lion part of the IoT market to come from Apps and Analytics. New capabilities are needed to take position in IoT. Leaders are now investing in becoming data driven enterprises – IoT bring enablers across an organization.
Individual packets of tea and coffee are commonly sold, but creating a mixed powder of both tea and coffee in varying proportions would be a new product with massive potential. Selling this tea-coffee mix idea to large fast-moving consumer goods companies could generate trillions of dollars in revenue as they market the blend globally. Further brand building ideas are available by contacting the author.
Affect of Money supply on inflation and GDP.................how our GDP and inflation vary with our Indian economy going up or down...................know thru did prez.........
Dealing With Divergences - Blackrock 2015 OutlookJoão Pinto
2015 Investment Outlook
Economic growth and monetary policies are diverging across the world. Get ready for volatility spikes in 2015—and new opportunities.
We debated this at our 2015 Outlook Forum in mid-November in London. The semi-annual event, the seventh of its kind, was marked by intense investment debates in small and large groups.
The 20-page piece includes: our 2015 base case (see chart below); top investment ideas; in-depth sections on valuations, volatility and currencies; five interactive graphics; and spotlights on key regional investment trends.
This document provides BlackRock's outlook for 2015 global markets and economies. It identifies divergence as a key theme, with the US and UK tightening monetary policy while other regions maintain stimulus. Volatility is expected to increase from low levels as valuations are high and investor confidence in monetary policy is stretched. Geopolitical risks also remain. The outlook calls for active risk management and hedging given low potential returns and the diminished ability of bonds to offset equity declines.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US and global economies in 2014 and an outlook for 2015. In 2014, US GDP growth recovered from a weak first quarter, driven by strong growth in the second and third quarters. Unemployment continued to decline. For 2015, the outlook expects US GDP growth to reach 3.0% due to continued job growth, increased consumer spending power from lower oil prices, and a pickup in business investment. However, weakness abroad and a strong dollar may impact trade.
SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller Briefs Chamber Members on Economic Trends
Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Bank, gave the keynote address at the 2015 Economic Outlook Briefing presented by Town of Chapel Hill Economic Development, describing trends and the latest economic issues facing the nation and the region.
As SunTrust’s chief economist, Gregory Miller analyzes the U.S. and global economies and forecasts the U.S. national economy. He advises corporate and bank boards of directors, as well as making frequent presentations to SunTrust business and wealth management clients. He sits on committees charged with interest rate setting, corporate investment, and benefits policy. He is a policy advisor for Private Wealth and Corporate Investment Banking groups.
Mr. Miller comments frequently in business media, including CNBC News, Bloomberg News, Fox Business, Reuters, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Blue Chip Financial Forecast, and other local news media platforms.
In addition to Miller’s economic forecast, Chamber President & CEO Aaron Nelson presented the results of the Chamber’s annual Economic Conditions Survey, an online survey that gauges our community’s thoughts on the current economy based on Chamber member response.
For more information, visit carolinachamber.org or contact Kristen Smith at (919) 357-9988.
###
The Chapel Hill-Carrboro (NC) Chamber of Commerce is a business leadership organization serving the greater Chapel Hill, NC community. The Chamber serves and supports the business interests of its more than 1,200 members and helps create a sustainable community where they can thrive. Chamber members employ more than 80,000 in the Research Triangle region.
Investment Opportunity In Indonesia 12 November 2011Adrian Teja
This document discusses several global and Indonesian economic issues:
1) It analyzes balance sheet recessions, quantitative easing, China's role, and the risk of a US Treasury bond bubble bursting.
2) It provides an overview of Indonesia's strong GDP growth drivers like demographics and domestic demand, noting Indonesia may become a safe haven.
3) It outlines Indonesia's "hot issues" for 2012 like demographic bonuses and efficiency-driven growth supporting continued strong capital inflows.
The document discusses India's strong economic growth in recent years, with GDP growth averaging over 8.5% since 2003 and expected to be around 8.5% in 2007-2008. Inflation has also increased but remains under control at around 5%. Interest rates are expected to rise to control inflation. The strengthening economy has boosted investor confidence but India still faces challenges in sustaining growth, reducing poverty and population growth, and developing infrastructure and education.
This document discusses various aspects of inflation including definitions, types, measurement, causes and effects. It explains key inflation concepts like demand-pull and cost-push inflation. It also discusses the stages of inflation and inflation's relationship to GDP and currency valuation. The document provides examples of inflation rates in India and outlines some monetary and fiscal policy measures to control inflation.
The document discusses several challenges facing the US economy that contradict the view that it can decouple from global economic trends. It argues that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies had less impact on interest rates than commonly believed, and that interest rates were destined to fall due to a global capital glut. It also argues that the US employment situation indicates long-term problems like declining labor force participation and increasing low-wage jobs. Additionally, it states that household debt remains high and deflation is a global issue impacting the US through factors like a strong dollar.
- Global equity markets saw sharp corrections in January led by a steep fall in crude oil prices. The Nifty breached 7500 support level touching a 52-week low.
- Third quarter Indian company results were mixed, with some benefiting from lower commodities while banks may need more time to recover.
- The budget will be a key upcoming event, with the government expected to focus on rural spending, manufacturing, and fiscal reforms.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's plans to potentially raise interest rates in 2015 after keeping them at historic lows since 2008. It notes that while higher rates may benefit savers, they also pose risks and it is difficult to predict how markets will react. The document also analyzes global economic indicators and unemployment data to provide context around the challenges facing the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate policy.
The latest quarterly strategic report that gives a summary of top market trends impacting major spend categories, and gives actionable insights to drive strategic value for your organization.
The report summarizes trends seen in major categories of corporate spending in Q1 2015. For logistics spending, it notes that unprecedented volatility in oil prices and other market factors has required logistics teams to adapt rapidly to changing conditions. For IT spending, it highlights that mobile data usage is exploding due to increased adoption of smartphones and data-heavy mobile apps, creating challenges for enterprises in managing rising mobile telecom costs. The report provides insights and recommendations for how organizations can optimize spending in these and other categories in the current market environment.
4th Qtr Year End 2011 Economic Review Feb 15 [Autosaved] [Autosaved]Gary Crosbie
- Economic growth in 2011 was sluggish at around 1.7% GDP, below the level needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate. While some improvements were seen, job growth and the labor participation rate remained problematic.
- The Federal Reserve implemented several quantitative easing programs aimed at stimulating growth by lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity, but these have had limited success in spurring lending and investment.
- Continued policy uncertainty around taxes, regulations, healthcare, and the European fiscal crisis have contributed to risk aversion among businesses and investors, limiting hiring and capital expenditures. The economic outlook for 2012 remains tepid.
Avant Garde Wealth Mgmt - Quarterly letter - 1409Gaurav Jalan
- India's market capitalization to GDP ratio has increased from 83% to 88% in the last 4 months and is close to one standard deviation above its historic average. Globally, market cap to GDP ratios range from 45-115% over the past 25 years.
- India's market cap to GDP ratio relative to the global ratio is currently at 1.05x, above its average of 0.6x. A decline in this relative ratio could lead to a significant decline in Indian equities.
- Inflation expectations globally have been declining and now sit at around 1.4%, diverging from the rise in stock market indices over the past year. Historically, rising stock markets have coincided with
The fundamental theme of the newsletter remains the same -- to dive deeper into economic issues that affect our investors. However to keep it interesting, the analysis has been kept at a macro level without getting into minute details.
We received encouraging feedback on the inaugural issue and we have used the same to improve this edition.
We hope you find the newsletter interesting.
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The notion of Dwayne Johnson kidnapping seems straight out of a Hollywood thriller. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, known for his larger-than-life persona, immense popularity. and action-packed filmography, is the last person anyone would envision being a victim of kidnapping. Yet, the bizarre and riveting tale of such an incident, filled with twists and turns. has captured the imagination of many. In this article, we delve into the intricate details of this astonishing event. exploring every aspect, from the dramatic rescue operation to the aftermath and the lessons learned.
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The Origins of the Dwayne Johnson Kidnapping Saga
Dwayne Johnson: A Brief Background
Before discussing the specifics of the kidnapping. it is crucial to understand who Dwayne Johnson is and why his kidnapping would be so significant. Born May 2, 1972, Dwayne Douglas Johnson is an American actor, producer, businessman. and former professional wrestler. Known by his ring name, "The Rock," he gained fame in the World Wrestling Federation (WWF, now WWE) before transitioning to a successful career in Hollywood.
Johnson's filmography includes blockbuster hits such as "The Fast and the Furious" series, "Jumanji," "Moana," and "San Andreas." His charismatic personality, impressive physique. and action-star status have made him a beloved figure worldwide. Thus, the news of his kidnapping would send shockwaves across the globe.
Setting the Scene: The Day of the Kidnapping
The incident of Dwayne Johnson's kidnapping began on an ordinary day. Johnson was filming his latest high-octane action film set to break box office records. The location was a remote yet scenic area. chosen for its rugged terrain and breathtaking vistas. perfect for the film's climactic scenes.
But, beneath the veneer of normalcy, a sinister plot was unfolding. Unbeknownst to Johnson and his team, a group of criminals had planned his abduction. hoping to leverage his celebrity status for a hefty ransom. The stage was set for an event that would soon dominate worldwide headlines and social media feeds.
The Abduction: Unfolding the Dwayne Johnson Kidnapping
The Moment of Capture
On the day of the kidnapping, everything seemed to be proceeding as usual on set. Johnson and his co-stars and crew were engrossed in shooting a particularly demanding scene. As the day wore on, the production team took a short break. providing the kidnappers with the perfect opportunity to strike.
The abduction was executed with military precision. A group of masked men, armed and organized, infiltrated the set. They created chaos, taking advantage of the confusion to isolate Johnson. Johnson was outnumbered and caught off guard despite his formidable strength and fighting skills. The kidnappers overpowered him, bundled him into a waiting vehicle. and sped away, leaving everyone on set in a state of shock and disbelief.
The Immediate Aftermath
The immediate aftermath of the Dwayne Johnson kidnappin
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Early Life and Backgrounds
Orpah Winfrey: From Humble Beginnings to Media Mogul
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Winfrey's journey to success began with a scholarship to Tennessee State University. where she studied communication. Her first job in media was as a co-anchor for the local evening news in Nashville. This role paved the way for her eventual transition to talk show hosting. where she found her true calling.
Dwayne Johnson: From Wrestling Royalty to Hollywood Superstar
Dwayne Johnson, also known by his ring name "The Rock," was born on May 2, 1972, in Hayward, California. He comes from a family of professional wrestlers, with both his father, Rocky Johnson. and his grandfather, Peter Maivia, being notable figures in the wrestling world. Johnson's early life was spent moving between New Zealand and the United States. experiencing a variety of cultural influences.
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2. A disclaimer!
The views expressed in this presentation
are personal. They are not necessarily
shared by the IMF, its Executive Board, or
its management.
3. Last week…
There was a major piece of economic
news
So important that newspapers put it on
page 1
Almost overnight, while the nation was
sleeping….
4. India became a trillion dollar
economy
India's Nominal GDP (US $ billion)
400
600
800
1000
1200 2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
5. The trillion-dollar club
There are only 10 other countries with trillion-dollar economies
U.S.
Japan
Germany
China
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Spain
Canada
Brazil
Russia
While “large economy” and “rich” are not synonymous, per capita
income will soon surpass $1,000, vaulting India into the ranks of the
middle-income countries
6. How did this happen?
The arithmetic:
In 2006/07, GDP was Rs 41 trillion
Dividing by the average exchange rate for last
year, we get $926 billion
So, how did we get to $1 trillion already?
The rupee GDP is growing
What happened to the exchange rate?
9. Roadmap of Presentation
Why is the exchange rate appreciating?
The trillion-dollar question: is the rising
rupee a good thing – or a problem?
What are the RBI’s options?
10. Roadmap of Presentation
Why is the exchange rate appreciating?
The trillion-dollar question: is the rising
rupee a good thing – or a problem?
What are the RBI’s options?
11. The inflation problem
To understand why the exchange rate is
appreciating today, you have to go back to
2006
Last year, economic growth spurted to 9
percent and the economy began to overheat
Production reached full capacity
Housing prices soared
Most serious, inflation started to rise
13. At the root of the problem
Supply shortages
Food prices increased sharply because of
poor harvests and increases in world prices
Excess demand
Credit was rising rapidly – by 30 percent
per year for 3 consecutive years
“Too much money chasing too few goods”
15. To slow credit, the RBI raised
interest rates
Repo and Reverse Repo Rates (in percent)
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate
16. But then something
unexpected happened…
In the past, whenever the RBI raised
interest rates, firms borrowed less, and
so spending and inflation slowed
But this time, firms merely turned
around and borrowed from abroad
Capital inflows into India surged to
unprecedented levels
17. Inflows reached $6 billion
a month – excluding ECBs!
Foreign Capital Inflows, (US $ mn, 2006-07P)
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
FDI Portfolio NR deposits
21. The “impossible trinity”
The RBI had just fallen victim to the
“impossible trinity”
Not possible to simultaneously:
Target interest rates
Target the exchange rate
Maintain an open capital account
Previously, this was not a problem
Capital account was tightly controlled
What changed?
22. India is globalizing rapidly
The statistics on India’s financial integration
with the rest of the world are astonishing:
Total two-way gross flows on balance of payments
transactions were $101 billion in 1992/93
They were $237 billion in 2001/02
And $657 billion in 2005/06
In other words:
Doubling took nine years
Near-tripling took only four
23. India’s globalization
More statistics:
External flows were 47 percent of GDP in 1992/93
And 91 percent of GDP in 2005/06.
This tremendous flow of funds across India’s
borders is rapidly eroding the country’s
capital controls
The “impossible trinity” is beginning to bite
24. How should the RBI respond?
Two options:
Do something
Do nothing
The appropriate response depends on
whether rupee appreciation is good for
the economy, or not
Once we have answered the question,
we can consider the RBI’s options
25. Roadmap of Presentation
Why is the exchange rate appreciating?
The trillion-dollar question: is the rising
rupee a good thing – or a problem?
What are the RBI’s options?
26. Advantages of rupee
appreciation
As we have seen, appreciation makes India richer:
rupee assets are worth more in dollars
Also, a strong rupee helps reduce inflation
Lowers import prices, notably for oil, other raw materials,
and capital goods, lowering the cost of production
It also reduces the prices of import-competing products, like
steel
So, a strong rupee helps consumers
27. Disadvantages of rupee
appreciation
A stronger rupee hurts exporters
Export earnings are worth less in rupees
Though this is partly offset by lower input costs
Also, to the extent that a stronger rupee relieves
inflationary pressure, it reduces the need for
interest rate increases
Still, on balance, export profitability is
likely to suffer and exports may slow
28. Significance test
How to balance these considerations?
Obviously, difficult to balance consumers
and producers
Perhaps the issue can be side-stepped
Is the appreciation significant?
Small appreciation = minor issue
To assess this, cannot just look at the
rupee/dollar rate, because India exports to
many countries
30. Measuring the “real exchange
rate”
To get a comprehensive picture, we average the
various exchange rates, weighted by exports to
different countries
This is called the nominal effective exchange rate
(NEER)
Then the NEER is adjusted by differences in inflation,
because if a country has appreciated in nominal
terms because its inflation is lower, then it hasn’t lost
any real competitiveness
This adjusted rate is called the real effective
exchange rate (REER)
31. How has the REER moved?
Through January – before the recent
sharp appreciation – the NEER had
actually been depreciating
But inflation has been higher than in
other countries
So, the REER has been rising, implying
a slight loss in competitiveness
32. Until January, the REER
appreciation has been modest
.
REER IMF
Revised
NEER
Relative CPI
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000Jan
2000Jul
2001Jan
2001Jul
2002Jan
2002Jul
2003Jan
2003Jul
2004Jan
2004Jul
2005Jan
2005Jul
2006Jan
2006Jul
2007Jan
Figure II.5. CPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate and Its Components
(1993=100)
33. India’s appreciation has been
amongst the smallest in Asia
-8 -4 0 4 8 12
Hong Kong SAR
India
Singapore
China
Korea
Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Source: IMF, INS database.
Real Effective Exchange Rates
(Percent changes, January 2006-January 2007)
AppreciationDepreciation
34. But the appreciation since
January has been significant
Exchange rate has appreciated by 7
percent against the dollar and 4½
percent against the euro
So, the REER is probably around 10
percent higher than its 1993/94 “base”
35. How would this appreciation
affect exporters?
Depends on the existing level of
profitability
If corporate profitability high, then a
moderate appreciation will not
materially change their competitiveness
But if profits are low, there could be
difficulties
What is the current situation?
37. More recent data
Analysis of October-December 2006
quarterly results of 808 companies
(Business Standard) showed a:
67 per cent increase in net profits, and
35 per cent increase in net sales.
January-March results are still coming in,
but they show a similar story
38. Exporters have been gaining
global market share
IVIIIVIIIVIIIVIIIVIIIVII
200620052004200320022001
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Share of Global Exports of Goods
indbp02g
(In percent)
40. To summarize
Weighing the advantages and
disadvantages is difficult
RBI’s (and public’s) priority now is
controlling inflation
But the REER appreciation is significant,
and could hurt some key sectors
What are the RBI’s options?
41. Roadmap of Presentation
Why is the exchange rate appreciating?
The trillion-dollar question: is the rising
rupee a good thing – or a problem?
What are the RBI’s options?
42. Sterilization: the first line of
defence
Go back to the earlier problem: intervention
to defend the exchange rate fueled an
unwanted increase in the money supply
Is there any way to prevent this money
supply increase?
Yes! It’s called “sterilization”
RBI can buy up the excess rupees by issuing
bonds (MSS)
Or it can force banks to deposit these rupees at
the central bank, so they can’t lend them out
(CRR)
43. In fact, the RBI has issued MSS
bonds…
Outstanding MSS (Rs billion, 2006-07)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
Data for April upto 20 only
44. …and it has increased the CRR
Reserve Requirements
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
23rd Dec 6th Jan. 17th Feb. 3rd Mar. 14th April 28th April
45. … moderating the increase in
reserve money
Reserve money growth (percent)
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07
Actual
Implied
46. So, does sterilization solve the
problem?
Not really!
Sterilization creates problems of its own
47. Problems with CRR increases
A tax on the banking system, as banks are
forced to place funds in non-interest bearing
accounts, rather than loan them out
Imposes a large and disruptive shock to the
system: all banks are forced to come up with
funds to deposit at the RBI
Not a problem for those which brought in foreign
exchange and now have excess rupees.
But what about the others?
48. Problems with MSS
MSS is less disruptive and more market-
friendly, since bonds will be bought (only) by
banks with excess funds
But then the government has to pay interest
on the bonds, potentially forever
The interest costs mount with each dollar of
intervention
This spending could be put to other uses,
such as building roads, hospitals, and schools
49. Cost of sterilization
The annual “carrying cost” of the
December-February intervention is
about Rs 25 billion
If intervention continued at this rate for
another three months, the annual cost
would be Rs 50 billion
If it continued for a year, the annual
cost would be Rs 100 billion!
50. How does China do it?
After all, China has intervened much
more than India
They have kept their exchange rate
very stable against the dollar, amassing
huge amounts of reserves, while
keeping reserve money growth below
India’s level!
52. Do they have a special
technique of sterilization?
Not really. They also sell bonds and
increase the CRR
Key difference: Chinese interest rates
are much lower.
53. China actually earns more on its reserves
than it pays on its sterilization bonds
Interest differential on Chinese and US securities
China (3 mth central
bank bill rate)
US (10 year treasury
note yield)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
54. But there are hidden costs
Chinese interest rates are low partly because
they control the banking sector
They force banks to accept low interest rates
and make loans to public enterprises
Then they recapitalize the banks when they
make losses. Recapitalization has cost billions
of dollars.
55. Also, intervention and
sterilization create market risks
Interest rate risk
IMF calculations in 2004 showed that a 100 bps increase in
U.S./Euro bond yields would reduce the capital value of
China’s foreign bond holdings by 10 percent, implying a
capital loss of 2 percent of GDP
Now, reserves are roughly twice as large
Currency risk
Also, each additional $100 billion in reserves would imply
losses of 2/3 percent of GDP if the exchange rate
appreciated by 10 percent
56. Implications
A sterilization policy would be costly and risky
for India
So, it may not be sustainable
If not, it could be disruptive when the policy
is abandoned
In that case, it might be better not to embark
on a policy of “guaranteeing” the exchange
rate in the first place
Firms could still hedge their exchange rate risk in
the forward market
59. The second line of defense:
capital account regulations
Some small steps have already been take to discourage
inflows:
Reinterpretation of pre-IPO capital inflows in real estate sector, to
disqualify them as FII investment
But major changes would be difficult
Now that India is so highly integrated with the rest of the world,
major capital account restrictions would be highly disruptive
It would also send a damaging signal to the business community
that even fundamental reforms can be reversed
Earlier this year, Thailand imposed some partial capital controls
The stock market fell 15 percent on the first day, forcing the
authorities to repeal many of the measures
60. Capital account regulations/2
A more promising alternative would be to
liberalize some of the remaining controls on
outflows
The RBI has been doing this, raising overseas
investment limits:
For individuals, to $50,000 (October) and then
$1,00,000 (April)
For companies, to 300 percent of net worth.
For mutual funds, to $3 bn (October) and then $4
bn (April)
61. Conclusion
India is now living in a Brave New World, a globalized one,
where the old policy approaches may no longer apply
In particular, one of the problems of success is that India is
attracting large capital inflows
Dealing with these inflows is difficult; no country has found the
magic solution
Intervening to defend the exchange rate can help preserve
export competitiveness, but it can endanger the inflation target
Sterilization can “square the circle”, but is costly and ultimately
not sustainable
Liberalizing capital inflows is one possibility, but it is not a
complete solution
So, the Reserve Bank has some difficult choices to make
64. Also, competitiveness is not just
a matter of the exchange rate
The REER has been rising since 2002
But exports of goods and services have
roughly tripled
And profits soared
65. How did this happen?
Many explanations
Customs duties were reduced
Capital controls were relaxed
Transport and communications
infrastructure improved
In short, India developed, and as this
occurs REERs naturally tend to rise
66.
67. Exporting is not an end
It is a means to achieving competitive
firms
It is this process that generates growth