The document summarizes key topics from an LGIP quarterly meeting and conference call, including:
1) LGIP and endowment fund performance updates.
2) Proposed changes to the endowment distribution formula to provide smoother, more consistent distributions.
3) A state budget presentation reviewing Arizona's economic outlook and revenue forecasts.
4) Updates on state cash flow trends and the components driving individual income tax growth.
The quarterly meeting agenda included discussing the performance of the LGIP, endowments, and state cash flow. The treasurer's investment philosophy prioritizes safety, liquidity, then yield. LGIP pools performed well in Q4 2012. The endowment market value was $3.52 billion as of June 2012 with unrealized gains of $911 million. A new distribution formula based on a 5-year average was proposed. State cash flow and balances were up significantly year-over-year. Jim Palmer then presented on current market conditions, Fed policy, strategies around the yield curve and duration, and attractive sectors.
The Arizona State Treasurer held a quarterly meeting and conference call on November 1, 2012. The agenda included discussing LGIP and endowment performance, proposed changes to the endowment distribution formula, and an update on state cash flow. Guest speaker Dr. Jim Paulsen also presented on the economic outlook. The Treasurer's investment philosophy emphasizes safety, liquidity, and then yield. LGIP and endowment portfolios achieved positive returns in Q1 FY2013. A smoother distribution formula was proposed that takes the 5-year average of the endowment's market value times 2.5% for the annual distribution amount. The state's cash flow was up 70% in the first quarter year-over-year with the
The document summarizes the agenda and presentations for a quarterly meeting and conference call of the Arizona Local Government Investment Pool (LGIP). Key topics included LGIP and endowment fund performance, earnings, new separately managed account products, and economic updates on the state of Arizona. An economic presentation was also given by Joseph Quinlan of U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management.
The document describes a cloud-based RFP management system called SpeedRFP for the group travel industry. SpeedRFP allows users to create and manage RFPs across multiple websites and channels in one centralized location. It provides benefits such as access to new buyers, improved quality RFP forms, and increased revenue. SpeedRFP currently has over 4,000 hotel users and 31,000 buyer members. The system is growing in adoption and provides benefits to both buyers and suppliers in the group travel industry.
This document contains a summary and analysis of the housing market in Southwest California, including the cities of Temecula, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Wildomar, and Canyon Lake. It provides data on home sales, prices, inventory levels, and market activity from 2010 to 2012. Key findings include declining home prices from 2008 to 2012, with median prices falling over 50% in some areas, as well as an increase in the percentage of short sales and bank-owned homes being sold in December 2012. Available housing inventory levels rose from 2010 to 2012 across the region.
U.S. Airlines: Their Nascent Recovery and the Benefits to the NationAdina Young
The US airline industry is climbing out of huge financial losses from 2001-2011 totalling $62.3 billion and has achieved modest profitability in recent years. However, airlines remain less profitable than other segments of the travel industry value chain. While operational performance is strong with high on-time arrival rates and low passenger complaint rates, the financial condition of most US airlines remains precarious, with only one currently holding investment-grade credit ratings. New regulations proposed for 2012 threaten to undermine the industry's nascent recovery.
This document is the 2008 Annual Report of The Clorox Company. It summarizes the company's financial highlights for fiscal year 2008, including net sales of $5.3 billion, net earnings of $899 million, and net cash provided by operations of $730 million. It discusses the company's focus on its Centennial Strategy, aimed at delivering double-digit annual growth in economic profit. Key accomplishments in fiscal 2008 included sales growth of 9%, cost savings of $93 million, and progress on strategic priorities around engagement, innovation, and growth. The report expresses confidence that Clorox is well-positioned in a challenging cost environment through its trusted brands, consumer insights, and operational focus.
The pending home sales index decreased 18.6% in June compared to the same month last year and fell 2.6% compared to May. All major U.S. regions saw a decrease in pending home sales in June compared to the previous year, with the exception of the South which increased 13.3% year-over-year. Pending home sales provide information on home sales contracts but not closings, making it an indicator of future housing market conditions.
The quarterly meeting agenda included discussing the performance of the LGIP, endowments, and state cash flow. The treasurer's investment philosophy prioritizes safety, liquidity, then yield. LGIP pools performed well in Q4 2012. The endowment market value was $3.52 billion as of June 2012 with unrealized gains of $911 million. A new distribution formula based on a 5-year average was proposed. State cash flow and balances were up significantly year-over-year. Jim Palmer then presented on current market conditions, Fed policy, strategies around the yield curve and duration, and attractive sectors.
The Arizona State Treasurer held a quarterly meeting and conference call on November 1, 2012. The agenda included discussing LGIP and endowment performance, proposed changes to the endowment distribution formula, and an update on state cash flow. Guest speaker Dr. Jim Paulsen also presented on the economic outlook. The Treasurer's investment philosophy emphasizes safety, liquidity, and then yield. LGIP and endowment portfolios achieved positive returns in Q1 FY2013. A smoother distribution formula was proposed that takes the 5-year average of the endowment's market value times 2.5% for the annual distribution amount. The state's cash flow was up 70% in the first quarter year-over-year with the
The document summarizes the agenda and presentations for a quarterly meeting and conference call of the Arizona Local Government Investment Pool (LGIP). Key topics included LGIP and endowment fund performance, earnings, new separately managed account products, and economic updates on the state of Arizona. An economic presentation was also given by Joseph Quinlan of U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management.
The document describes a cloud-based RFP management system called SpeedRFP for the group travel industry. SpeedRFP allows users to create and manage RFPs across multiple websites and channels in one centralized location. It provides benefits such as access to new buyers, improved quality RFP forms, and increased revenue. SpeedRFP currently has over 4,000 hotel users and 31,000 buyer members. The system is growing in adoption and provides benefits to both buyers and suppliers in the group travel industry.
This document contains a summary and analysis of the housing market in Southwest California, including the cities of Temecula, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Wildomar, and Canyon Lake. It provides data on home sales, prices, inventory levels, and market activity from 2010 to 2012. Key findings include declining home prices from 2008 to 2012, with median prices falling over 50% in some areas, as well as an increase in the percentage of short sales and bank-owned homes being sold in December 2012. Available housing inventory levels rose from 2010 to 2012 across the region.
U.S. Airlines: Their Nascent Recovery and the Benefits to the NationAdina Young
The US airline industry is climbing out of huge financial losses from 2001-2011 totalling $62.3 billion and has achieved modest profitability in recent years. However, airlines remain less profitable than other segments of the travel industry value chain. While operational performance is strong with high on-time arrival rates and low passenger complaint rates, the financial condition of most US airlines remains precarious, with only one currently holding investment-grade credit ratings. New regulations proposed for 2012 threaten to undermine the industry's nascent recovery.
This document is the 2008 Annual Report of The Clorox Company. It summarizes the company's financial highlights for fiscal year 2008, including net sales of $5.3 billion, net earnings of $899 million, and net cash provided by operations of $730 million. It discusses the company's focus on its Centennial Strategy, aimed at delivering double-digit annual growth in economic profit. Key accomplishments in fiscal 2008 included sales growth of 9%, cost savings of $93 million, and progress on strategic priorities around engagement, innovation, and growth. The report expresses confidence that Clorox is well-positioned in a challenging cost environment through its trusted brands, consumer insights, and operational focus.
The pending home sales index decreased 18.6% in June compared to the same month last year and fell 2.6% compared to May. All major U.S. regions saw a decrease in pending home sales in June compared to the previous year, with the exception of the South which increased 13.3% year-over-year. Pending home sales provide information on home sales contracts but not closings, making it an indicator of future housing market conditions.
ASX SPI 200TM Futures are derivatives that allow traders to take positions on movements in Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index, which tracks the top 200 companies on the Australian stock market. The futures contracts can be traded on electronic platforms for almost 24 hours a day. Volume in 2010 averaged $4.5 billion daily with over 10 million contracts traded. Key benefits of the futures include price transparency, lower fees than trading underlying stocks, and reduced counterparty risk through centralized clearing.
- In the third quarter of 2012, the company saw revenues of $1.874 million, up 7% from the third quarter of 2011, though net profits declined to $129,000 from $44,000 in the prior year period.
- Growth products including proprietary table games and enhanced table systems experienced increases in both unit installations and quarterly revenue compared to a year ago.
- Short term growth is anticipated from returning clients and market expansion, while mid and long term growth will depend on expanded product placements, new product releases, and targeted acquisitions.
- Recent litigation has been resolved without significant financial impact to the company.
The document provides a monthly market report for Maricopa County real estate from October 2012. It includes data on closed sales, pending sales, distressed sales, average sales price, days on market, and list to sales price ratio over the past 36 months. The report finds that closed sales increased 7.4% in October compared to the prior month. The average sales price reached its highest point since 2010 at $211,537, continuing an upward trend. Days on market decreased slightly. Non-distressed sales accounted for 61.2% of sales, the highest percentage in the reporting period.
plains all american pipeline Annual Reports2007 finance13
- Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) is a master limited partnership engaged in oil and gas transportation, storage, and marketing.
- In 2007, PAA achieved or exceeded its goals by delivering record financial results, successfully integrating its acquisition of Pacific Energy Partners, completing its largest capital program and acquisitions to date, and increasing distributions paid to unitholders by 14.4%.
- Looking ahead, PAA's goals for 2008 are to deliver strong operating and financial performance, successfully execute its capital program and pursue strategic acquisitions, and increase distributions year-over-year by $0.20 to $0.25 per unit.
The document summarizes the IDeA Program, which includes several components aimed at supporting biomedical research in US states that historically receive lower levels of NIH funding. The key components are the Centers of Biomedical Research Excellence (COBRE) program, which provides funding to establish multidisciplinary research centers focused on a specific scientific theme and mentoring junior researchers; the IDeA Networks of Biomedical Research Excellence (INBRE) program, which supports statewide networks; and the IDeA Clinical and Translational Research program. Examples are provided of specific COBRE centers established in Oklahoma that have helped increase biomedical research funding and capacity in the state.
The document discusses content delivery network (CDN) technology trends. It provides an overview of the CDN market size and share from 2010 to 2014. It also describes basic CDN functionality, including how content is cached at edge servers close to users to improve performance. New entrants are aggregating unused infrastructure while some smaller CDNs use Amazon CloudFront.
Enterprise and Government Mobility Solutions - Market Update & Outlook 2010VDC Research Group
The document provides an overview and outlook of the enterprise mobility solutions market for 2010. It discusses:
- The market is expected to improve in 2010 after a challenging 2009, though the first half will likely remain difficult.
- Aging device installed bases are driving up failure rates and costs.
- Demand is increasing for next-generation devices that meet new user and application requirements.
- Managing mobile solutions remains a top priority for organizations.
- VDC Research will track the enterprise mobility market across hardware, software, services and vertical markets to help clients stay informed in 2010.
This document provides an overview of Newmont Mining Corporation and the gold mining industry. It summarizes Newmont's financial and operating performance in 2006, provides production and cost guidance for 2007, and discusses trends of rising costs and declining production industry-wide. It also outlines Newmont's project pipeline and exploration activities.
This presentation discusses capitalizing on the gold bull market. It provides an overview of Newmont Mining Corporation, including that it is a world leading gold company and the only major US gold company. It also provides financial and operating highlights for 2006, including equity gold sales and costs applicable to sales. Projections and opportunities for 2007 are discussed for various regions and mines, with costs applicable to sales expected to increase approximately 25% compared to 2006 due to rising input costs.
ASIAN CAPITAL FLOWS – INTO, OUT OF, AND WITHIN ASIA (Paige Mueller) - ULI fal...Virtual ULI
This document discusses capital flows to and within Asia from a global investor's perspective. It provides data showing trends in commercial real estate sales in Asia, with sales growing significantly since 2007. A survey of large asset managers and pension funds found that the top factors considered in making country allocation decisions are economic growth, sovereign debt issues, inflation prospects, and interest rate differentials between countries. Charts are included showing projections for economic growth in major countries and regions through 2030, with significant growth expected in China, India, and other developing economies. The rise of the global middle class is also discussed, particularly in Asia Pacific and other developing areas.
The document discusses the state of the U.S. economy and small business credit environment. It provides data and charts on topics such as the federal budget deficit, GDP growth, employment, inflation, housing market, and small business sentiment. The economy is showing some signs of recovery but growth remains weak, unemployment is high, and small businesses continue to struggle with access to credit.
As the impact of healthcare reform on the U.S. delivery system comes into focus, there is little doubt that it is a “game changer” for clinical engineering and biomedical equipment technology. Carol will describe and discuss the future of the CE and BMET professions under new regulations and a new payment system. She will address why medical devices will cost much more, why equipment must have longer life cycles, why CEs and BMETs will and must have more involvement in IT-related activities, how CEs’ and BMETs’ responsibilities in regulatory compliance will expand and how you can prepare for this new environment.
About Carol Davis-Smith, CCE
Career Summary
Carol Davis-Smith is a Director in Premier’s Consulting Solution Division with responsibility for the development and deployment of capital lifecycle management processes and tools to Premier staff and owners.
Education and Affiliations
Ms. Davis-Smith received a B.S. in bioengineering technology
from the University of Dayton and an M.S. in engineering from the University of Arizona. She is a certified clinical engineer and a member of the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation (AAMI). Over the past 20 years, she has presented and published papers on a variety of clinical engineering and capital contracting topics. In 2009, Ms. Davis-Smith received the AAMI Clinical Engineering Achievement Award.
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Pending Home Sales StatisticsNAR Research
The November 2010 pending home sales statistics document contains the following key points:
1) The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index decreased 5.0% in November 2010 compared to November 2009.
2) By region, pending home sales decreased the most in the West at 17.6% year-over-year, followed by the Midwest at 7.7% and the South at 7.2%.
3) Pending home sales increased 3.5% from October 2010 to November 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
1. The presenter discussed the state of the US economy and housing market, noting growth is expected to increase to 2.7% in 2013.
2. Consumer confidence and spending are strong, supported by restored wealth and low debt levels. Business profits are high with low borrowing costs and available credit.
3. However, long-term budget problems threaten as the national debt rises unsustainably, projected to reach 186% of GDP by 2030 without reforms to curb deficits. Solutions are needed to shrink the deficit by 4% of GDP.
Plenary session 1 the tricks and trials of investing in nut production - da...MacadamiaSociety
The document discusses macadamias and opals. It includes charts showing the share price of Select Harvests Ltd over time, the acreage of orchards owned and leased and managed by Select Harvests Ltd over the years, and normalized Google search trends for almonds and macadamias from 2004 to 2012 which show macadamias are most searched for in Australia and New Zealand while almonds are most searched for in the United States. The document also discusses future sources of industry investment and global macadamia kernel production growth rates by country.
The document discusses trends in US debt levels from 1966-2012 under different presidential administrations. It notes that debt incurred per dollar of GDP grew substantially under Reagan, reaching 50 cents per dollar of GDP by the end of his term. Under George W. Bush, debt levels grew further to 66 cents per dollar of GDP. Under Obama, debt has grown the fastest of any president, reaching $1.02 per dollar of GDP currently and $2.84 total for his first term. However, economic indicators like jobs, incomes and stock prices have not improved commensurately with the increased borrowing.
This document discusses a local Maori perspective on international trade deals, climate policy, and the global financial crisis in New Zealand. It outlines several sustainable development projects for Ngati Porou lands, including land-based aquaculture, manuka honey, renewable energy, and protected cultivation using greenhouse technology. Projections show that best practice management could significantly increase Ngati Porou wealth, jobs, and salaries over the next 20 years compared to doing nothing.
The document provides an overview of Barrick Gold Corporation's presentation at the Scotia Capital's Precious Metals Conference on November 27, 2007. It includes summaries of Barrick's financial performance in Q3 2007, outlook for 2007, focus on project execution including the Nevada power plant and Yanacocha gold mill, exploration and development pipeline including Conga and Akyem, and the proposed acquisition of Miramar Mining and its Hope Bay project. Charts are included showing historical gold prices, gold ETF holdings, Barrick's costs applicable to sales and equity gold sales in Q3 2007.
The document provides an overview of Barrick Gold Corporation's presentation at the Scotia Capital's Precious Metals Conference on November 27, 2007. It includes summaries of Barrick's financial performance in Q3 2007, outlook for 2007, focus on project execution including the Nevada power plant and Yanacocha gold mill, exploration and development pipeline including Conga and Akyem, and the proposed acquisition of Miramar Mining and its Hope Bay project. Charts are included showing historical gold prices, gold ETF holdings, Barrick's costs applicable to sales and equity gold sales in Q3 2007.
The document analyzes freight costs and identifies store direct shipments as a major factor. Specifically, store direct shipments of non-toy items like optical drives significantly increase freight costs due to their high average sales price compared to toy items. Actions are recommended to stop shipping non-toy items store direct, ship toy items in 10-packs to lower costs, and change the metric for toy item freight out from a percentage of revenue to a cost per unit.
The document shows monthly total sales figures for an unnamed company from December 2010 through December 2011 and January through May 2012. Total sales for 2010-2011 were $342,445.63 with the highest monthly sales of $42,938.54 in September 2011. Sales for the first five months of 2012 totaled $138,984.48 with the highest monthly sales of $43,442.50 in January 2012.
ASX SPI 200TM Futures are derivatives that allow traders to take positions on movements in Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index, which tracks the top 200 companies on the Australian stock market. The futures contracts can be traded on electronic platforms for almost 24 hours a day. Volume in 2010 averaged $4.5 billion daily with over 10 million contracts traded. Key benefits of the futures include price transparency, lower fees than trading underlying stocks, and reduced counterparty risk through centralized clearing.
- In the third quarter of 2012, the company saw revenues of $1.874 million, up 7% from the third quarter of 2011, though net profits declined to $129,000 from $44,000 in the prior year period.
- Growth products including proprietary table games and enhanced table systems experienced increases in both unit installations and quarterly revenue compared to a year ago.
- Short term growth is anticipated from returning clients and market expansion, while mid and long term growth will depend on expanded product placements, new product releases, and targeted acquisitions.
- Recent litigation has been resolved without significant financial impact to the company.
The document provides a monthly market report for Maricopa County real estate from October 2012. It includes data on closed sales, pending sales, distressed sales, average sales price, days on market, and list to sales price ratio over the past 36 months. The report finds that closed sales increased 7.4% in October compared to the prior month. The average sales price reached its highest point since 2010 at $211,537, continuing an upward trend. Days on market decreased slightly. Non-distressed sales accounted for 61.2% of sales, the highest percentage in the reporting period.
plains all american pipeline Annual Reports2007 finance13
- Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) is a master limited partnership engaged in oil and gas transportation, storage, and marketing.
- In 2007, PAA achieved or exceeded its goals by delivering record financial results, successfully integrating its acquisition of Pacific Energy Partners, completing its largest capital program and acquisitions to date, and increasing distributions paid to unitholders by 14.4%.
- Looking ahead, PAA's goals for 2008 are to deliver strong operating and financial performance, successfully execute its capital program and pursue strategic acquisitions, and increase distributions year-over-year by $0.20 to $0.25 per unit.
The document summarizes the IDeA Program, which includes several components aimed at supporting biomedical research in US states that historically receive lower levels of NIH funding. The key components are the Centers of Biomedical Research Excellence (COBRE) program, which provides funding to establish multidisciplinary research centers focused on a specific scientific theme and mentoring junior researchers; the IDeA Networks of Biomedical Research Excellence (INBRE) program, which supports statewide networks; and the IDeA Clinical and Translational Research program. Examples are provided of specific COBRE centers established in Oklahoma that have helped increase biomedical research funding and capacity in the state.
The document discusses content delivery network (CDN) technology trends. It provides an overview of the CDN market size and share from 2010 to 2014. It also describes basic CDN functionality, including how content is cached at edge servers close to users to improve performance. New entrants are aggregating unused infrastructure while some smaller CDNs use Amazon CloudFront.
Enterprise and Government Mobility Solutions - Market Update & Outlook 2010VDC Research Group
The document provides an overview and outlook of the enterprise mobility solutions market for 2010. It discusses:
- The market is expected to improve in 2010 after a challenging 2009, though the first half will likely remain difficult.
- Aging device installed bases are driving up failure rates and costs.
- Demand is increasing for next-generation devices that meet new user and application requirements.
- Managing mobile solutions remains a top priority for organizations.
- VDC Research will track the enterprise mobility market across hardware, software, services and vertical markets to help clients stay informed in 2010.
This document provides an overview of Newmont Mining Corporation and the gold mining industry. It summarizes Newmont's financial and operating performance in 2006, provides production and cost guidance for 2007, and discusses trends of rising costs and declining production industry-wide. It also outlines Newmont's project pipeline and exploration activities.
This presentation discusses capitalizing on the gold bull market. It provides an overview of Newmont Mining Corporation, including that it is a world leading gold company and the only major US gold company. It also provides financial and operating highlights for 2006, including equity gold sales and costs applicable to sales. Projections and opportunities for 2007 are discussed for various regions and mines, with costs applicable to sales expected to increase approximately 25% compared to 2006 due to rising input costs.
ASIAN CAPITAL FLOWS – INTO, OUT OF, AND WITHIN ASIA (Paige Mueller) - ULI fal...Virtual ULI
This document discusses capital flows to and within Asia from a global investor's perspective. It provides data showing trends in commercial real estate sales in Asia, with sales growing significantly since 2007. A survey of large asset managers and pension funds found that the top factors considered in making country allocation decisions are economic growth, sovereign debt issues, inflation prospects, and interest rate differentials between countries. Charts are included showing projections for economic growth in major countries and regions through 2030, with significant growth expected in China, India, and other developing economies. The rise of the global middle class is also discussed, particularly in Asia Pacific and other developing areas.
The document discusses the state of the U.S. economy and small business credit environment. It provides data and charts on topics such as the federal budget deficit, GDP growth, employment, inflation, housing market, and small business sentiment. The economy is showing some signs of recovery but growth remains weak, unemployment is high, and small businesses continue to struggle with access to credit.
As the impact of healthcare reform on the U.S. delivery system comes into focus, there is little doubt that it is a “game changer” for clinical engineering and biomedical equipment technology. Carol will describe and discuss the future of the CE and BMET professions under new regulations and a new payment system. She will address why medical devices will cost much more, why equipment must have longer life cycles, why CEs and BMETs will and must have more involvement in IT-related activities, how CEs’ and BMETs’ responsibilities in regulatory compliance will expand and how you can prepare for this new environment.
About Carol Davis-Smith, CCE
Career Summary
Carol Davis-Smith is a Director in Premier’s Consulting Solution Division with responsibility for the development and deployment of capital lifecycle management processes and tools to Premier staff and owners.
Education and Affiliations
Ms. Davis-Smith received a B.S. in bioengineering technology
from the University of Dayton and an M.S. in engineering from the University of Arizona. She is a certified clinical engineer and a member of the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation (AAMI). Over the past 20 years, she has presented and published papers on a variety of clinical engineering and capital contracting topics. In 2009, Ms. Davis-Smith received the AAMI Clinical Engineering Achievement Award.
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Pending Home Sales StatisticsNAR Research
The November 2010 pending home sales statistics document contains the following key points:
1) The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index decreased 5.0% in November 2010 compared to November 2009.
2) By region, pending home sales decreased the most in the West at 17.6% year-over-year, followed by the Midwest at 7.7% and the South at 7.2%.
3) Pending home sales increased 3.5% from October 2010 to November 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
1. The presenter discussed the state of the US economy and housing market, noting growth is expected to increase to 2.7% in 2013.
2. Consumer confidence and spending are strong, supported by restored wealth and low debt levels. Business profits are high with low borrowing costs and available credit.
3. However, long-term budget problems threaten as the national debt rises unsustainably, projected to reach 186% of GDP by 2030 without reforms to curb deficits. Solutions are needed to shrink the deficit by 4% of GDP.
Plenary session 1 the tricks and trials of investing in nut production - da...MacadamiaSociety
The document discusses macadamias and opals. It includes charts showing the share price of Select Harvests Ltd over time, the acreage of orchards owned and leased and managed by Select Harvests Ltd over the years, and normalized Google search trends for almonds and macadamias from 2004 to 2012 which show macadamias are most searched for in Australia and New Zealand while almonds are most searched for in the United States. The document also discusses future sources of industry investment and global macadamia kernel production growth rates by country.
The document discusses trends in US debt levels from 1966-2012 under different presidential administrations. It notes that debt incurred per dollar of GDP grew substantially under Reagan, reaching 50 cents per dollar of GDP by the end of his term. Under George W. Bush, debt levels grew further to 66 cents per dollar of GDP. Under Obama, debt has grown the fastest of any president, reaching $1.02 per dollar of GDP currently and $2.84 total for his first term. However, economic indicators like jobs, incomes and stock prices have not improved commensurately with the increased borrowing.
This document discusses a local Maori perspective on international trade deals, climate policy, and the global financial crisis in New Zealand. It outlines several sustainable development projects for Ngati Porou lands, including land-based aquaculture, manuka honey, renewable energy, and protected cultivation using greenhouse technology. Projections show that best practice management could significantly increase Ngati Porou wealth, jobs, and salaries over the next 20 years compared to doing nothing.
The document provides an overview of Barrick Gold Corporation's presentation at the Scotia Capital's Precious Metals Conference on November 27, 2007. It includes summaries of Barrick's financial performance in Q3 2007, outlook for 2007, focus on project execution including the Nevada power plant and Yanacocha gold mill, exploration and development pipeline including Conga and Akyem, and the proposed acquisition of Miramar Mining and its Hope Bay project. Charts are included showing historical gold prices, gold ETF holdings, Barrick's costs applicable to sales and equity gold sales in Q3 2007.
The document provides an overview of Barrick Gold Corporation's presentation at the Scotia Capital's Precious Metals Conference on November 27, 2007. It includes summaries of Barrick's financial performance in Q3 2007, outlook for 2007, focus on project execution including the Nevada power plant and Yanacocha gold mill, exploration and development pipeline including Conga and Akyem, and the proposed acquisition of Miramar Mining and its Hope Bay project. Charts are included showing historical gold prices, gold ETF holdings, Barrick's costs applicable to sales and equity gold sales in Q3 2007.
The document analyzes freight costs and identifies store direct shipments as a major factor. Specifically, store direct shipments of non-toy items like optical drives significantly increase freight costs due to their high average sales price compared to toy items. Actions are recommended to stop shipping non-toy items store direct, ship toy items in 10-packs to lower costs, and change the metric for toy item freight out from a percentage of revenue to a cost per unit.
The document shows monthly total sales figures for an unnamed company from December 2010 through December 2011 and January through May 2012. Total sales for 2010-2011 were $342,445.63 with the highest monthly sales of $42,938.54 in September 2011. Sales for the first five months of 2012 totaled $138,984.48 with the highest monthly sales of $43,442.50 in January 2012.
The document outlines a person's monthly budget for the first six months of the year. It includes categories for mortgage, car payment, insurance, phone, credit card, groceries, and gas. The total monthly expenses are listed for each month, along with total income and savings. The percent of income saved each month is also shown, ranging from 40% to 100% over the six month period outlined.
The document summarizes the installation costs for the company "Patito S.A de C.V" over the first quarter. It shows the costs of internet, electricity, water, air conditioning, and gas for July, August and September. The total installation costs for the quarter were $19,404. A chart shows that in August, air conditioning accounted for 33% of costs, while electricity was 16% and gas was 14%.
North American venture capital investment in clean technology grew substantially between 1999 and 2008, rising from $0.279 billion annually in 1999 to $5.9 billion in 2008. Investment was lowest in the first quarters and highest in the fourth quarters of each year. Total annual investment more than doubled between 2005 and 2006, and again between 2006 and 2007.
The document reports annual performance data for a diversified asset management portfolio and the S&P 500 from 1999-2008. It shows the portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 in most years, with gains in 1999, 2000, 2003-2007 and losses in 2001-2002 and 2008. Asset allocations within the portfolio are also provided for several years.
The document shows monthly expense tracking sheets for January, February, and March. It demonstrates how to link cells across worksheets to calculate running totals for expenses by using formulas that reference cell values from the previous month's worksheet. This allows the user to see year-to-date expense totals that automatically update as new monthly data is added each period.
The document contains sales data for MP3s and mobile services by category and year. It also includes budget data for an environmental club by quarter. The MP3 sales were highest in the West region and for the video category. Sales of standard mobile phones decreased from 2005 to 2008 while music phones increased. The environmental club spent the most on travel and the least on refreshments, with expenditures varying by quarter.
The document appears to be a presentation reviewing the business performance of a company from 2003-2008. It includes graphs and data on revenues, costs, profits, sales mix, product mix, growth, and market share over this period. The presentation discusses strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and lays out a strategic plan and vision to diversify products, reengineer operations, and strengthen marketing efforts going forward.
This document summarizes the financial situation of the CUSD school district. It shows that for 2010-2011, revenue was $82.6 million while expenses were $84.22 million, resulting in a $1.62 million deficit. For 2011-2012, projected revenue is $71.25 million while expenses are projected to be $82.2 million, resulting in a projected $10.95 million deficit. To close this deficit, the document outlines over $11 million in potential expense reductions, including increasing class sizes, reducing staff through layoffs and furloughs, cutting programs and transportation, and closing an elementary school. It recommends approving the prior year's financial report and a resolution adopting financial limits.
Commercial Real Estate and Economic OutlookNar Res
The document summarizes trends in the US commercial real estate market. It shows that while sales of large, expensive properties are slowly recovering, apartment investment has seen a fast comeback. Office and retail property investment are also increasing gradually. Commercial property prices have been rising overall with apartments gaining the strongest. Vacancy rates are falling across major property types and rents are rising, with apartment rents increasing the most. The economy is expected to continue modest growth, supporting further recovery in the commercial real estate market.
Writing changedmylife.com automated ms excel invoicedfreelancer
The document provides instructions for using an automated invoice template for a writing business. It explains that the template calculates totals automatically each month based on the number of articles and rate per article entered for each client. The overall monthly income is also calculated automatically. The template is meant to simplify the monthly invoicing process.
The document provides an overview of key economic indicators and performance of the Indian market from 2008 to 2012. It summarizes annual GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, current account deficit, FII activity, and performance of the Sensex index relative to global peers. Selected companies are also analyzed over the 5-year period based on factors like revenue and profit growth, valuations, debt levels, and concerns.
The document outlines the costs, profits, and expenses for a small grocery store business over the course of a year. It details the individual items sold, total costs and profits, employee and advertising expenses, monthly and yearly income and profits both with and without taking out a loan. The document also includes a repayment schedule showing the monthly payments over a year to pay back the $2,500 loan plus $42.50 in annual interest.
The document outlines the costs, profits, and expenses for a small grocery store business over the course of a year. It details the individual items sold, total costs and profits, employee and advertising expenses, monthly and yearly income and profits both with and without taking out a loan. The document also includes a repayment schedule showing the monthly payments over a year to pay back the $2,500 loan plus $42.50 in annual interest.
- The document discusses Monsanto's third-quarter 2008 financial results and outlook.
- Monsanto reported strong earnings growth of 41% in the third quarter of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007, with ongoing diluted earnings per share of $1.45.
- For the full year 2008, Monsanto expects ongoing diluted earnings per share to increase approximately 70% over 2007, reaching around $3.40 per share.
- The document discusses Monsanto's third-quarter 2008 financial results and outlook.
- Monsanto reported strong earnings growth of 41% in the third quarter of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007, with ongoing diluted earnings per share of $1.45.
- For the full year 2008, Monsanto expects ongoing diluted earnings per share to increase approximately 70% over 2007, reaching around $3.40 per share.
This document provides an economic and financial market update for November 2012. It includes numerous charts and graphs analyzing indicators related to the U.S. and global economies, such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, stock and bond markets, housing, jobs, bank lending, exports, and commodity prices. Several charts compare the U.S. to other G10 countries. The document discusses whether the recoveries are sustainable or if new risks may emerge. It also contemplates various economic scenarios and possibilities for 2012-2013.
The document summarizes the performance and allocation of Arizona's endowment fund as of February 2012. It notes that the fund was updated in 2011 from a 50/50 to a 60/40 stock to bond allocation, increasing expected returns from 6% to 6.4% while also increasing risk. As of February 2012, the fund was valued at $3.52 billion and provided a record K-12 distribution of $77.8 million for fiscal year 2012. The document also discusses exploring changing the distribution formula to provide more stable annual distributions.
This document presents proposed asset allocation options for the Arizona Permanent State Land Fund. It reviews restricted and unrestricted policy portfolios, comparing them to the fund's current policy. Alternative policies are expected to produce more efficient risk-return outcomes through increased diversification, including exposure to international markets, fixed income, real assets, and private markets. Peer funds in other states have adopted broader allocation strategies incorporating illiquid asset classes. Risk analyses of the options are provided to help trustees evaluate the tradeoffs.
The document provides an agenda and summaries from an LGIP quarterly meeting and conference call. It discusses LGIP earnings, performance of various pools, a new separately managed account product, endowment performance and market value exceeding $3 billion, K-12 distributions reaching a new record, and state cash flow trends including a 14% increase in the operating account average monthly balance year-over-year. It concludes with a question and answer session.
The document provides an agenda for an LGIP quarterly meeting and conference call. It includes discussions on LGIP and endowment performance, new LGIP products, endowment distribution formulas, state cash flow, and an Arizona economic update. A special presentation will be given by Alex Roever of JP Morgan Securities on the US short-term credit outlook. Time will also be provided for questions.
This document summarizes the quarterly meeting of the LGIP (Local Government Investment Pool). It discusses the earnings, performance, and asset allocation of various investment pools including Pool 5, Pool 7, Pool 500, and Pool 700. It also summarizes the performance of the State Endowment and discusses its asset allocation, unrealized gains, distribution formula, and economic outlook for Arizona.
12. Billions
$0.50
$0.00
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
December 2006
February 2007
April 2007
June 2007
August 2007
October 2007
December 2007
February 2008
April 2008
June 2008
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
August 2008
October 2008
December 2008
February 2009
April 2009
June 2009
August 2009
October 2009
December 2009
Endowment Market Value
February 2010
April 2010
June 2010
August 2010
October 2010
December 2010
ENDOWMENT MARKET VALUE
February 2011
$3.57
April 2011
Billion
June 2011
August 2011
October 2011
December 2011
February 2012
13. Millions
$600.00
$1,000.00
$1,200.00
-$200.00
$0.00
$200.00
$400.00
$800.00
December 2006
February 2007
April 2007
June 2007
August 2007
October 2007
December 2007
February 2008
April 2008
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
June 2008
August 2008
October 2008
December 2008
February 2009
April 2009
June 2009
August 2009
October 2009
December 2009
February 2010
April 2010
June 2010
Total Endowment Unrealized gains/losses
August 2010
October 2010
December 2010
February 2011
April 2011
ENDOWMENT UNREALIZED GAINS
June 2011
August 2011
October 2011
$960
December 2011
million
February 2012
15. ASSET ALLOCATION: MARCH 2003 - FEB 2011
50% 50%
STOCKS BONDS
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
16. ENDOWMENT ASSET ALLOCATION
8.8%
$3.57 Billion
Fixed Income
$1,549.4 million
$542.2 million
15.3% $1,600.04M
40.2%
$502.79M
S&P 500
S&P 400
35.7% $1,122.1 million
$1,052.42M
S&P 600
As of 3/31/2012
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
19. CURRENT DISTRIBUTION FORMULA
FY 2008 AVG. TOTAL RETURN FY 2008 AVG. TOTAL INFLATION
+ +
FY 2009 AVG. TOTAL RETURN FY 2009 AVG. TOTAL INFLATION
+ +
FY 2010 AVG. TOTAL RETURN FY 2010 AVG. TOTAL INFLATION
+ +
FY 2011 AVG. TOTAL RETURN 20% FY 2011 AVG. TOTAL INFLATION 20%
+ +
FY 2012 AVG. TOTAL RETURN FY 2012 AVG. TOTAL INFLATION
FY 2008 MARKET VALUE
+
FY 2009 MARKET VALUE
+
FY 2010 MARKET VALUE
+
FY 2011 MARKET VALUE
+
20%
FY 2012 MARKET VALUE
ANNUAL DISTRIBUTION
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
20. SMOOTHER, CONSISTENT DISTRIBUTIONS
5-Year
Average
Market Value
X
2.5%
Annual
Distribution
Takes 2.5% of the average monthly market value from
each of the previous five years
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
22. MODERATE MARKET SCENARIO
1,200
Current, Complicated Formula New, Simple Formula
1,000
Annual Distribution ($ Millions)
800
600
Years with $0 Distribution Using Current Formula
400
200
0
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
23. OPTIMISTIC MARKET SCENARIO
1,200
Current, Complicated Formula New, Simple Formula
1,000
$0
Annual Distribution ($ Millions)
Years with Distribution Using Current Formula
800
600
400
200
0
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
24. PESSIMISTIC MARKET SCENARIO
1,200
Current, Complicated Formula New, Simple Formula
1,000
Annual Distribution ($ Millions)
800
600
Years with $0 Distribution Using Current Formula
400
200
0
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
26. STATE CASH FLOW
TOTAL OPERATING ACCOUNT AVERAGE MONTHLY BALANCE
$3,000
Up 50% in First 9 months YOY
Dec'07-June '09
Recession
$2,500 Mar'01-Nov '01
Recession
$2,000
$1.37 billion
in March
$1,500
Jul '90-Mar '91
$1,000 Recession
$500
Millions
$0
-$500
-$1,000
ARIZONA STATE TREASURER DOUG DUCEY
32. Key Economic Measures
- Current Arizona Status
Withholding Growth 2.6%
3 Month Average Compared to Prior Year
Retail Sales Tax Growth
5.1%
3 Month Average Compared to Prior Year
Pending Maricopa Foreclosures 17,800
Arizona Single Family Permits 11,400
Arizona Underwater Mortgages 48%
32
JLBC
33. Arizona Forecasters Are Optimistic Compared
to Other Western States
Blue Chip Forecast - % Personal Income Growth
CY 2012 CY 2013
Texas 5.1% Arizona 5.8%
Arizona 4.9% Utah 5.8%
Utah 4.8% Texas 5.4%
Washington 4.5% Washington 5.2%
Wyoming 4.5% Colorado 4.7%
Colorado 4.4% Oregon 4.4%
Oregon 4.4% California 4.1%
California 4.0% Idaho 3.8%
New Mexico 3.3% Nevada 3.2%
Idaho 2.8% New Mexico 3.4%
Nevada 2.4% Wyoming N/A
33
JLBC
34. Where Are We Headed Over the Next Few Years?
- Four-Sector Consensus Forecast Incorporates
Different Economic Views, Including the FAC
4-sector forecast equally weights:
JLBC UA - Low
FAC average 25% 25%
UofA model – base
UofA model – low
JLBC Staff forecast
Remaining revenues (10% of
total) are staff forecast
FAC UA - Base
Consensus 25%
25%
* Includes Big 3 categories of sales tax,
individual income and corporate income taxes 34
JLBC
35. Sales Tax
- The Consensus Forecasts Growth of 5.8% in FY ’12
and 4.2% in FY ’13
15%
Y/Y Change (without 1-Cent Tax)
10% 7.5%
5.8% 5.5%
5.6% 4.2%
5% 1.8%
0%
-3.5%
-5%
-10% ’11 Actual = $3.45 Billion
-10.0%
-13.7%
-15%
’12 YTD = 5.1%
-20%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Fiscal Year
Historical 4-Sector Forecast
Percent Change in Base Revenue Excluding
35
JLBC Tax Law Changes and 1-Cent Sales Tax
36. Sales Tax Growth Rate Has Slowed
Throughout Year
- Comparison to FY ’11 Helps Explain FY ’12 Path
10%
FY 2011 FY
6.9% 2012
% Growth From Prior Yr
6.3%
4.8%
5%
3.6%
2.4%
2.0%
0%
-2.8%
-5%
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd
Collections by Quarter
36
JLBC
37. June 2013 TPT Estimated Payment
Businesses with an annual sales tax liability above a certain
threshold are required make a single estimated advance
payment in June of each year
Legislature lowered liability threshold for estimated
payment from $1 million to $100,000 for FY ‘10 thru FY ‘12
The reduced liability threshold generated a one-time
revenue gain of $48 million in FY ‘10
When threshold reverts to $1 million in FY ‘13, state will
incur an estimated one-time revenue loss of $(52) million
37
JLBC
38. Individual Income Tax
- The Consensus Forecasts Growth of 6.2% in FY ’12
Dropping to 2.9% in FY ’13
20%
18.0%
10% 6.3% 6.2% 6.5%
5.5%
2.9%
Y/Y Change
0%
-4.1%
-10% -5.5%
’11 Actual = $2.86 Billion
-20%
-24.5% ’12 YTD = 7.2%
-30%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Fiscal Year
Historical 4-Sector Forecast
Percent Change in Base Revenue Excluding
Tax Law and One-Time Changes 38
JLBC
39. Components of Individual Income Tax Growth
- First Three Quarters of FY ’12
Growth appears to be in line
with job and wage growth
Withholding 3.1%
Payment increase overstated
Payments 29.5% due to large one-time
payment in January – absent
Refunds 4.5% this payment, growth would
be 12.3%
Net 7.2% Refunds appear to be on
track for first increase since
FY ‘09
39
JLBC
40. Corporate Income Tax
- The Consensus Forecasts Growth of 14.0% in FY ’12
Dropping to 3.9% in FY ’13
50%
38.2%
25% 14.1% 14.0% 14.8%
9.3%
Y/Y Change
3.9%
0%
-25% -14.4% ’11 Actual = $560.2 Million
-20.7%
-24.6%
’12 YTD = 33.6%
-50%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Fiscal Year
Historical 4-Sector Forecast
Percent Change in Base Revenue Excluding
Tax Law and One-Time Changes 40
JLBC
41. Corporate Income Tax
- Forecast Remains Substantially Below FY ’07 High Point
1,200
$986
1,000
$874
$785
800
$711
$681
$ in Millions
$632 $636
$592
600 $560
$413
400
200
0
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
4-Sector Forecast
Total dollar collections include enacted tax law changes and one-time adjustments. 41
JLBC
42. Consensus Predicts Base Growth Rate of
5.6% in FY ’12 *
10%
FY ’12 YTD collections:
8.2%
8% 7.3% • 6.7% greater than FY
6.6%
’11 collections
6%
4.5% • $17 million or 0.3%
4% over the January
Baseline forecast
2%
0%
UA Base UA Low FAC JLBC
Details in Appendix A
* Weighted Big 3 average growth prior to 1-Cent sales tax is 6.6% in FY ’12 . After adjusting for small tax
categories, the base growth rate is 5.6% in FY ’12.
42
JLBC
43. Consensus Predicts Base Growth Rate Declining from
5.6% in FY ’12 to 3.4% in FY ’13*
FY ’12 FY ’13
10%
8.2%
8% 7.3%
6.9%
6.6%
5.6%
6%
4.5% 4.4%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-2.5%
-4%
UA Base UA Low FAC JLBC UA Base UA Low FAC JLBC
Details in Appendix A
* Weighted Big 3 average growth prior to 1-Cent sales tax is 6.6% in FY ’12 and 3.6% in FY ’13. After 43
JLBC adjusting for small tax categories, the base growth rate is 5.6% in FY ’12 and 3.4% in FY ’13.
44. FY ’13 4-Sector Forecast
- April Components Compared to January
10%
7.6% 7.8%
8% 6.9%
6% 5.6%
5.0%
4.4%
4%
2% 1.4%
0%
-2%
-2.5%
-4%
UA Base UA Low FAC JLBC
January April
44
JLBC
45. Consensus Forecasts Steadily Rising Revenue
Growth Rate Through FY ’15
30%
20.1%
18.1%
Year over Year Percent Change
20%
9.4% 10.1%
6.9% 7.2%
10% 5.6% 6.3%
3.4%
0%
-10% -4.6%
-10.3%
-20%
-18.2%
-30%
FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15
Percent Change in Base revenues excluding balance forward, tax law changes, one-
time revenues, and urban revenue sharing 45
JLBC
46. Two Potential Issues With 4-Sector
1) 3.4% FY ’13 projection reflects slower
average growth than many general economic
projections
2) 4-Sector growth rates accelerate in out-years
– budget forecasts usually become more
cautious in the long run
46
JLBC
47. An Alternate Scenario Assumes 5% Annual Growth
through FY ’15
- In the FY ’12-’15 Cycle, Produces Total Revenue Comparable to 4-Sector
10%
Year over Year Percent Change
8% 7.2%
6.3%
6% 5.6%
5.0%
5.0% 5.0%
4%
3.4%
2%
0%
FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15
Percent Change in Base revenues excluding balance forward, tax law changes, one-
time revenues, and urban revenue sharing 47
JLBC
48. Comparison of Revenue Forecasts
- Base General Fund Percentage Revenue Growth
FY ‘12 FY ‘13 FY ‘14 FY ‘15
January 4-Sector 5.3% 5.1% 6.9% 7.9%
April 4-Sector 5.6% 3.4% 6.3% 7.2%
April – Alternate 5.6% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Executive 1/ 5.3% 6.5% 7.3% 6.4%
-The April estimate has slow FY ’13 growth, followed by accelerating economy in FY ’14 and FY ’15.
-- The FY ’13 4-sector may be too low and out-year budgets are not usually based on accelerating
growth.
-- The Alternative scenario produces a comparable amount of revenue to the April 4-sector.
1/ Stated relative to January FAC prior year estimate for comparability.
48
JLBC
49. Consensus Forecast Remains Below FY ’07 High
12
9.62
10 9.26
8.76 8.59 8.75 8.80
8.28
7.72 8.05
8
6.97
$ in Billions
6.29
6
4
2
0
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Base 1 ¢ Sales Tax
Excludes balance forward and other one-time revenues. Includes tax law
changes and Urban Revenue Sharing.
49
JLBC
50. Risks to the Economic Forecasts
Impact of international economy uncertain
• Difficult to predict outcome, leading some national
forecasters to place recession risk at 20%
Cannot predict natural disasters or political events
ahead of time
• Iran and Israel
• Gasoline prices
Effect of future federal tax and spending decisions
50
JLBC
52. Baseline Revision in Long Term Spending Estimates
- Relative to Appropriation Committee Estimates
Federal Health Care cost has been re-estimated from
$421 M to $210 M in FY ‘15
• Reflects further analysis of Executive’s $421 M estimate
• Assumes childless adult enrollment returns to pre-freeze
levels plus 50% participation of currently eligible but not
participating individuals
FY ’15 New School construction costs projections have
declined from $150 M to $56 M
• Reflects reduction in SFB’s projection of new school openings
See Attachment B for more details
52
JLBC
53. FY ’12 – ’15 Projections
The projections include the April 4-sector revenue estimates and the
spending plan approved by the Appropriations Committee in February
The ending balance estimates are affected by whether the prior year
budget has a surplus or shortfall
’12 ’13 ’14 ’15
Revenues $8.7 B $8.5 B $8.3 B $8.8 B
Spending $8.5 B $8.5 B $8.7 B $9.2 B
Balance $187 M $ 80 M $(402) M $(410) M
(W/O Carryforward)
Balance $187 M $267 M $(134) M $(545) M
(W/Carryforward)
53
JLBC
54. Change in Ending Balance Projections
The lower April 4-sector revenue estimates would lower the projected FY ’13
ending balance and increase the FY ’15 shortfall
’12 ’13 ’14 ’15
Balance with
$137 M $303 M $ 69 M $(380) M
January Revenue
Balance with
$187 M $267 M $(134) M $(545) M
April Revenue
Includes carryforward from prior year
54
JLBC
56. The Caveats
New permanent initiatives would reduce the FY ‘13
balance and increase the FY ’14 and FY ’15 shortfalls
A 3-Year budget forecast is inherently unreliable
• A 2% error could change revenues by $500 M in the
3rd year
Serious federal deficit reduction could increase
state costs
Pending Supreme Court decision on federal health
care and other state “budget” lawsuits could affect
long term costs
56
JLBC
57. Appendix A: April 2012 4-Sector Forecast
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
Sales Tax
JLBC Forecast 5.7% 5.2% 6.8% 7.2%
UA – Low 5.2% 0.2% 3.7% 8.1%
UA – Base 7.0% 4.5% 6.3% 8.7%
FAC 5.4% 6.7% 5.1% 6.1%
Average: 5.8% 4.2% 5.5% 7.5%
Individual Income Tax
JLBC Forecast 5.8% 6.4% 7.0% 7.0%
UA – Low 4.2% -4.9% 3.9% 6.0%
UA – Base 9.6% 3.9% 5.6% 6.8%
FAC 5.1% 6.2% 5.2% 5.9%
Average: 6.2% 2.9% 5.5% 6.5%
Corporate Income Tax
JLBC Forecast 25.0% 3.7% 4.8% 3.0%
UA – Low 1.2% -7.4% 22.5% 15.9%
UA – Base 8.5% 6.8% 24.5% 13.5%
FAC 21.1% 11.0% 10.8% 6.0%
Average: 14.0% 3.9% 14.8% 9.3%
JLBC Weighted Average: 7.3% 5.6% 6.7% 6.8%
UA Low Weighted Average 4.5% -2.5% 5.1% 7.9%
UA Base Weighted Average 8.2% 4.4% 7.5% 8.3%
FAC Weighted Average: 6.6% 6.9% 5.7% 6.0%
“Big-3” Weighted Average 6.6% 3.6% 6.3% 7.2%
Consensus Weighted Average:* 5.6% 3.4% 6.3% 7.2%
Adjusted Consensus Weighted Average:** 5.6% 2.9% 6.0% 6.0%
* Consensus Big-3 Categories adjusted for small revenue categories 57
JLBC ** Consensus Weighted Average adjusted for tax law changes
58. Appendix B: Summary of Baseline Spending Adjustments
The budget proposal heard in the House and Senate Appropriations Committees originally assumed an FY 2015 shortfall of $(675)
million. This shortfall estimate included $421 million for costs associated with federal healthcare requirements and $150 for School
Facilities Board new construction costs.
Based on further analysis of these issues, the estimate of federal healthcare requirement costs has been reduced to $210 million, while
the SFB cost projection has been reduced to $56 million.
The following summary provides further detail of these estimates.
AHCCCS
FY 14 Federal Health Care Projection - $40M
Program starts in January 2014.
New enrollees include:
o Newly eligible – Any person with income from 100 to 133% FPL.
o Currently eligible – Any person with income from 0 to 100% FPL, who is not a childless adult. Publicity of federal
health care is expected to encourage some of these already eligible people to enroll.
o Previously eligible childless adults – An adult without children 18 years and younger who has income from 0 to 100%
FPL.
165,000 new enrollees in Medicaid in FY 14 as a result of federal health care changes, about half of the total expected to
ultimately enroll.
o 40,000 (35%) of the newly eligible.
o 65,000 (25%) of the currently eligible.
o 60,000 (50%) of the previously eligible childless adults from 0 to 100%.
The federal government covers 100% of costs for the newly eligible, 65% for the currently eligible, and 82% for restored childless
adults.
58
JLBC
59. Appendix B (continued)
A partially offsetting savings is realized from the enhanced federal match of 82% (up from 65%) for 120,000 still enrolled
childless adults.
Capitation rates increase 5% in FY 14.
FY 15 Federal Health Care Projection - $210M
First full year of implementation.
The remaining portion of expected enrollees comes onto Medicaid, resulting in a total of 325,000 new enrollees from federal
health care changes.
o 75,000 (70%) of the newly eligible.
o 135,000 (50%) of the currently eligible.
o 115,000 (100%) of the previously eligible childless adults from 0 to 100% FPL.
The federal match for previously eligible childless adults increases from 82 to 85% of costs.
A partially offsetting savings is realized from the enhanced federal match of 85% for 120,000 still enrolled childless adults.
Capitation rates increase 5% in FY 15.
School Facilities Board
FY 15 New School Construction Projection - $56 M
Estimate based on projects requested by the School Facilities Board in FY 2013 budget request.
Eliminates projects which have been cancelled due to lower than expected enrollment forecasts.
Cost estimate incorporates all new construction projects scheduled to open through FY 16. Assumes entire funding amount is
appropriated in FY 15.
59
JLBC
61. Contents
Slide:
3……Total Non-Farm Employment
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Single Family Building Permits
8……Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures
9……Coincident Index
61
JLBC
62. Total Non-Farm Employment
2,800
2,700
2,600
Thousands of Jobs
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
62
JLBC Not seasonally adjusted
63. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
45,000
40,000
Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
AUG
AUG
MAY
MAY
APR
MAR
APR
MAR
FEB
FEB
OCT
OCT
JAN
JUN
JAN
JUN
JAN
JUN
NOV
NOV
NOV
JUL
JUL
SEP
SEP
DEC
DEC
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
63
JLBC Not seasonally adjusted
64. JLBC
$ in Millions
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
July 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
July 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
July 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
July 09
Oct 09
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax
Jan 10
Apr 10
July 10
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
July 11
Oct 11
Jan 12
State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
64
65. JLBC
$ in Millions
$100
$0
$25
$50
$75
July 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
July 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
July 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
July 09
Oct 09
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax
Jan 10
Apr 10
July 10
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
July 11
Oct 11
Jan 12
65
State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
66. Single Family Building Permits
100,000
90,000
80,000
Single Family Building Permits
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
66
JLBC 12-Month Moving Sum
67. Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
67
JLBC An initial notice of trustee sale has been recorded but final sale has not yet occurred
68. Economic Activity Index
210
200
Coincident Index Value
190
180
170
160
150
140
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
JUL
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators 68
JLBC (employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.