The APM Risk SIG presented a Quantitative Risk Analysis event that provided perspectives across the project stakeholder spectrum, from client decision-makers to risk analysts and consultants.

2. Agenda
• Organisation
• Risk Management Development
• QRA Process
• QRA Outputs
• 4 Projects
• Common Implementation Challenges
• Success Stories
• Future Focus Areas

3. The Organisation
• African energy utility
• Challenges
– facing the country
– facing the organisation
• Project Management
history

4. Risk Management Development
• Where we were
• Where we are
• Where we are heading

5. QRA Process

6. Typical QRA Output – Distributions

7. Typical QRA Output – Tornado Graph

8. Project A
• Pump storage scheme
• Late stage of Execution
• Implementation Approach
• Receptiveness of QRA and results
• Implementation lessons
o Successes
o Challenges

9. Project B
• Rail Project
• Early stage of Execution
• Implementation Approach
• Receptiveness of QRA and results
• Implementation lessons
o Successes
o Challenges

10. Project C
• Gas Turbine Power Station
• Definition phase
• Implementation Approach
• Receptiveness of QRA and results
• Implementation lessons
o Successes
o Challenges

11. Project D
• Coal fired power station
• Early stage of Execution
• Implementation Approach
• Receptiveness of QRA and results
• Implementation lessons
o Successes
o Challenges

12. Common Implementation Challenges
• Understanding uncertainty, risk and statistics
• Planners reluctant to take ownership of the uncertainty
data
• Management acceptance that QRA is a different way of
analysing risk
• Educating project stakeholders on using percentiles for
decision-making (P80)
• Implementation capacity
• Continuity of QRA process – lack of project-based
resources
• How to get QRA onto a project earlier enough for it to be
beneficial

13. Success Stories
• Collaboration with the project team pays dividends
• Treatment plans starting to be built into schedule
• “You have empowered me to challenge the imposed schedule
deadline”
• “I don’t like what your analysis is showing but it’s a realistic
picture that I have to accept”
• “I now know what is driving my schedule and I can
concentrate on lowering the uncertainty and risks in these
areas”
• “I can now manage my stakeholder expectations. These are
more realistic end dates.”
• “Risk Management was always just a compliance exercise.
Now I can use it for management decisions”

14. Future Focus Areas
• Correlation between activities
• Getting planners to understand and buy in to correlation
• Taking QRA to investment committee
• IWBS / Control Accounts
• Wider implementation
• QRA capacity increase
• Converting project scales to corporate scales for
reporting

15. And Finally …
• Built up QRA capability from scratch
• QRA is helping to raise the profile of project risk
management
• Building relationships of trust
• Don’t be afraid of implementing QRA – it has been an
exciting and rewarding journey so far

16. THANK YOU
Contact
Egan Naidoo
+27 (0)79 509 9523
+27 (0)11 516 7187
naidooeg@gmail.com
Any Questions?

17. This presentation was delivered
at an APM event
To find out more about
upcoming events please visit our
website www.apm.org.uk/events