Lecture 3 _CLIMATE CHANGE.pptx

WEATHER VS CLIMATE
• Weather consists of short-term changes in atmospheric variables such
as the temperature and precipitation in a given area over a period of
hours or days
• Climate is determined by the average weather conditions of the earth
or of a particular area, especially temperature and precipitation, over
decades to thousands of years.
The minimum period considered is usually 3 decades

COMPONENTS OF CLIMATE SYSTEM
• Atmosphere
• Oceans (Hydrosphere)
• Ice sheets (Cryosphere)
• Living organisms (Biosphere)
• Soils, sediments and rocks (Geosphere)

STUDY OF CLIMATE ON GEOGRAPHICAL SCALES
• LOCAL CLIMATE
• Influences areas maybe only a few miles or tens of miles across
• sea breezes and urban heating
• REGIONAL CLIMATE
• Picture of particular patterns of weather within individual countries, or
within climate zones that exist at different latitudes on the Earth
• Indian Monsoon
• GLOBAL CLIMATE
• Important to study past and predict future climate
• Sixteen of the last 17 warmest years on record have occurred in the 21st century. According
to NASA, 2016 was the warmest year on record

PAKISTAN’S CLIMATE
Climatic division of
Pakistan is as follows:
• Highland climate
• Lowland climate
• Coastal climate
• Arid climate

CLIMATE ZONES/ BELTS
• Climate zones are divisions of the Earth's climates into general climate
zones according to average temperatures and average rainfall
• Major climate zones are
• Tropical
• Temperate
• Polar

REGIONAL CLIMATE
South Asia’s climate:
• Tropical
• A tropical climate is also known as ‘equatorial’
• High temperature and precipitation
• Dry
• Temperate

TEMPERATE
• Temperate climates are those without extremes
of temperature and precipitation.
• There are two types of temperate climate: maritime and continental
• The maritime climate is strongly influenced by the oceans, which
maintain fairly steady temperatures across the seasons.
• Continentality increases inland, with warmer summers and colder
winters as the effect of land on heat receipt and loss increases.

DRY/ DESERT CLIMATE
• Deserts are areas where the rainfall is too low to sustain any vegetation at
all, or only very scanty scrub.
• Less than 250 mm or 10 inches per year, and some years may experience
no rainfall at all
• The hot deserts are situated in the subtropical climate zone where there is
unbroken sunshine for the whole year due to the stable descending air and
high pressure

FACTORS ON WHICH LOCAL CLIMATE DEPENDS
• Latitude
• Ocean currents
• Land-sea distribution
• Mountain ranges

Latitude
• More sunlight near the equator – warmer than poles
• Latitudinal temp. gradient -> atmospheric pressure difference ->
winds (general circulation of the atmosphere) –> transfer of
equatorial heat towards poles
• Coriolis force (effect) deflects the northerly and southerly
components of this atmospheric circulation, due to the Earth's
rotation

Ocean Currents
• Affects regional and global climate
• The Gulf Stream in the Atlantic influences the weather of Northwest
Europe. The periodic El Niño current in the equatorial Pacific can have
drastic consequences for the weather in parts of South America and
Australasia.

Land-Sea Distribution
• Coastal regions generally experience mild and humid maritime
climates, whilst the interiors of large land masses have
more continental climates, with warmer summers and colder winters.
Mountain Ranges
• Mountains not only affect local climates but can influence regional
climate as well, by diverting the course of the prevailing winds.

CLIMATE TYPES/ CLASSIFICATION
Thornthwaite’s climate classification
• Microthermal
• Mesothermal
• Megathermal

KOPPEN CLIMATE CLASSIFICATION
• TROPICAL/ HOT CLIMATE
• SUBTROPICAL CLIMATE
• ARID/ SEMI-ARID CLIMATE
• TEMPERATE CLIMATE
• POLAR CLIMATE
• HIGHLAND CLIMATE

TROPICAL/ HOT CLIMATE
TROPICAL RAINFOREST
• ALL AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPS GREATER THAN 18OC/64.4OF
• DRIEST MONTH WITH AT LEAST 6CM/2.40" OF PRECIPITATION
TROPICAL WET-DRY/ SAVANNA
• MORE THAN 2 MONTHS HAVE LESS THAN 6CM/2.40" PRECIPITATION
TROPICAL MONSOON
• ONE OR MORE MONTHS LESS THAN 6CM/2.40" PRECIPITATION
• EXCESSIVELY WET DURING RAINY SEASON

SUBTROPICAL CLIMATE
HUMID SUBTROPICAL – EAST COAST
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF WARMEST MONTH AVERAGES OVER 22OC/72OF
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF COLDEST MONTH IS UNDER 18C/64.4F AND ABOVE -3C/26.6F
• YEAR AROUND RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
HUMID SUBTROPICAL – MEDITERRANEAN
• COOL WITH DISTINCTLY DRY COOL SUMMER W/STRONG MARITIME INFLUENCE
• AVERAGE TEMP OF COLDEST MONTH IS UNDER 18C/64.4F AND ABOVE -3C/26.6F
• AT LEAST 3 TIMES AS MUCH PRECIPITATION DURING WETTEST WINTER MONTH AS IN DRIEST
SUMMER MONTH
• NO MONTH WITH AVERAGE TEMP OVER 22C/71.6F

SUBTROPICAL CLIMATE (Contd.)
MARINE WEST COAST – MILD
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ALL MONTHS IS BELOW 22C/71.6C
• AT LEAST 4 MONTHS WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ABOVE 10C/50F
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF COLDEST MONTH IS UNDER 18C/64.4F AND ABOVE -3C/26.6C
• RAINFALL EQUALLY SPREAD THROUGHOUT YEAR
MARINE WEST COAST – COOL
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ALL MONTHS IS BELOW 22C/71.6C
• 1 TO 3 MONTHS WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ABOVE 10C/50F
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF COLDEST MONTH IS UNDER 18C/64.4F AND ABOVE -3C/26.6F

ARID/ SEMI-ARID CLIMATE
DRY/ARID (HOT) - LOW LATITUDE DESERTS
• EVAPORATION EXCEEDS PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE
• USUALLY LOWER LATITUDE, HOT DESERT CLIMATE
• MEAN AVERAGE TEMP IS OVER 18C/64.4F; FROST ABSENT OR INFREQUENT WINTER
DRY/ARID (COOL) - MIDDLE LATITUDE DESERTS
• USUALLY MID-LATITUDE, COOLER DESERT CLIMATE
• MEAN AVERAGE TEMP IS BELOW 18C/64.4F; BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WINTER

ARID/ SEMI-ARID CLIMATE
SEMI-ARID, STEPPE (HOT)
• EVAPORATION EXCEEDS PRECIPITATION
• STEPPE/GRASSLAND/BUNCH GRASSES
• MEAN AVERAGE TEMP IS OVER 18C/64.4F
SEMI-ARID, STEPPE (COOL)
• PRECIPITATION IS MORE THAN HALF BUT LESS THAN POTENTIAL EVAPORATION
• USUALLY MID-LATITUDE, STEPPE/GRASSLAND/BUNCH GRASSES
• MEAN AVERAGE TEMP IS BELOW 18C/64.4F

TEMPERATE CLIMATE
HUMID CONTINENTAL HOT SUMMERS W/YEAR AROUND PRECIPITATION
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF COLDEST MONTH IS -3C/26.6F OR BELOW
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF WARMEST MONTH IS GREATER THAN 10C/50F
HUMID CONTINENTAL HOT SUMMERS W/DRY WINTERS
• WINTERS DRY
HUMID CONTINENTAL MILD SUMMER WITH YEAR AROUND RAINFALL
• NO MONTH WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER 22C/71.6F

TEMPERATE CLIMATE (Contd.)
HUMID CONTINENTAL MILD SUMMER WITH DRY WINTERS
• NO MONTH WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER 22C/71.6F
SUBARCTIC WITH COOL SUMMERS AND YEAR AROUND RAINFALL
• 1 TO 3 MONTHS WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 10C/50F

TEMPERATE CLIMATE (Contd.)
SUBARCTIC WITH COLD WINTERS AND YEAR AROUND RAINFALL
• COLDEST MONTH HAS AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -38C/-36.4F OR BELOW
SUBARCTIC WITH COOL SUMMERS AND DRY WINTERS
• AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF COLDEST MONTH OF -3C/26.6F OR BELOW
• 1 TO 3 MONTHS WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 10C/50F
SUBARCTIC WITH COLD WINTERS AND DRY WINTERS
• COLDEST MONTH HAS AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -38C/-36.4F OR BELOW

POLAR CLIMATE
TUNDRA CLIMATE (Arctic Ocean Borderlands of North America)
• AVERAGE TEMP OF WARMEST MONTH IS BELOW 10C/50F BUT IS GREATER THAN 0C/32F
• PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS POTENTIAL EVAPORATION
ICECAP CLIMATE (Greenland, Antarctica)
• AVERAGE TEMP OF WARMEST MONTH IS 0C/32F OR BELOW
• PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS POTENTIAL EVAPORATION
HIGHLAND CLIMATE
• DUE TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS, CAN ENCOMPASS ANY OF THE ABOVE CLIMATE CLASSIFICATIONS
• VERY COMPLEX AND TIGHT KNIT CLIMATIC ZONE
• TEMPERATURE DECREASE WITH INCREASING ALTITUDE

“Climate is what you expect; the weather is what you get”
Robert Heinlein
“A long-term change in the earth's climate, especially a change due to
an increase in the average atmospheric temperature”
Particularly, this change is apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards and
attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced
by the use of fossil fuels

CLIMATE CHANGE
• Apparent at many geographical scales
• Local
• Regional
• Global
• Time scale could be
• Generation(s) or more
• Thousands or millions of years
Palaeoclimatology is the study of climate and climate change prior to the period
of direct measurements
At the end of the last Ice Age 14,000 years ago, 5oC warming that occurred over a
period of about 5,000 years

MAJOR FINDINGS OF IPCC AR4, 2007
• 0.6oC increase in average global temperature during the last century
• Much of the rise occurred since the 1980s
• Further increase by 1.8 – 4.0oC projected over the 21st Century
• Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature
and precipitation in different world regions
• Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods,
droughts etc.) will increase considerably
• Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic
• Substantial rise in sea level

CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Causes of climate change could be
• Natural - processes which influence the flows of energy into, out of and
within the climate system
• changes in ocean circulation
• changes in the amount of energy received by the Sun
• Anthropogenic - mankind's pollution of the atmosphere causing changes at
global and regional scale
• burning of fossil fuels
• deforestation

• Annual GHG Index
• Arctic Sea Ice Extent
• Atmospheric CO2
• Forest Cover
• Frost-free Season
• Global Surface Temperatures
• Ocean Chlorophyll Concentrations
• Sea Surface Temperatures

• Ocean Acidity
• Sea-level Rise
• Vibrio Infections
• More Droughts and Famines
• Climate Forcing
• Intense Heat Waves
• Forest Fires
• Agriculture and Food Security

DRIVERS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Natural
Man-made
Economic

NATURAL DRIVERS
• Volcanic Activity
• Radiative Forcing
• Solar irradiance
• Orbital variation of Earth
• Surface Reflectivity (Albedo)

MAN-MADE DRIVERS
• GHGs and Global Warming
• Ozone Depletion
• Overpopulation
• Land-use changes
• Fossil fuel combustion
• Unsustainable consumption behaviours

ECONOMIC DRIVERS
• Industrial Revolution
• Increased use of Fertilizers, Pesticides and Insecticides
• Increased Consumption and Production
• Air Pollution
• Reducing Green Spaces
• Extraction of minerals
• Globalization, etc.

ON NATURAL SYSTEMS
• Decreasing water quality
• Lack of fresh and clean air
• Loss of biodiversity
• More frequent famines and droughts
• Severe weather conditions
Heat waves Severe storms Heavy downpour
• Melting of cryosphere
• Submergence of coasts

ON SOCIETAL SYSTEM
• Less crop yield
• Starvation and food insecurity
• Economic losses
• More frequent Climate disasters
• High influx of Climate refugees
• Loss of infrastructure
• Increased burden of death and disease
• Outbreak of new diseases
• More incidence of vector-borne diseases
• Lack of potable drinking water, etc.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IN PAKISTAN

MAJOR CC RELATED CONCERNS
• Increased variability of Monsoon;
• Increased risks of floods and droughts;
• Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid region;
• Food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity;
• More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers;
• Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline;
• Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to
mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish;

VULNERABILITY OF PAKISTAN TO CC
• Economy largely based on agriculture, which is climate sensitive –
livelihoods and food security depend on it
• Rising sea levels by melting of Himalayan glaciers
• Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with
floods and droughts are expected to rise. Increases in coastal water
temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera.
• The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing social
inequalities of resource use and intensify social factors leading to
instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in migration
patterns

VULNERABILITY OF PAKISTAN TO CC (Contd.)
• Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to
biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for the
population.
• Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will
be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some
cases, the rivers
• Low technological and scientific base and limited access to
knowledge;
• Weak institutional mechanism and low financial resources to
undertake appropriate adaptation measures.

RESEARCH NEEDS OF PAKISTAN
• Proper understanding of the past trends of:
• Region-wise Climate Change
• Changes in flow patterns of IRS
• Changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events
• Recession of Karakoram Glaciers
• Degradation of the Indus delta region
• Fine resolution projections of climate change in Pakistan in line with global trends
• Scientific assessment of likely future impacts of climate change on country’s key
sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture
• Identification of appropriate adaptation measures to cope with adverse impacts

OTHER MEASURES NEEDED TO COPE WITH CC
• Increasing access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change
• Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information
systems to enhance disaster preparedness
• Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses
• Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infra-structural changes
• Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and
adaptation
• Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop varieties and
irrigation techniques
• Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation
• Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability
assessment and implementation of adaptation
• Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors

• ADAPTATION
Adapting to the climate change
already in the pipeline
• MITIGATION
Reducing emissions of and
stabilizing levels of heat- trapping
GHGs in the atmosphere

ADAPTATION
Adapting to life in a changing climate – involves adjusting to
actual or expected future climate

GOALS OF ADAPTATION
• Reduce our vulnerability to the harmful effects of climate change (like sea-
level encroachment, more intense extreme weather events or food
insecurity) – Protective
• Make the most of any potential beneficial opportunities associated with
climate change (for example, longer growing seasons or increased yields in
some regions) – Opportunistic

METHODS OF ADAPTATION
• Enhancing Adaptive Capacity
• Drought-tolerant Crop Varieties
• Adopt Sustainable Agriculture
• Forest Resources
• Increase Energy Efficiency
• Improve Health Infrastructure esp. during Extreme Weather Events
• Invest in Disaster Risk and Management practices
• Rainwater Storage/ Harvesting
• Damming Glacial Lakes
• Assisting Disadvantaged Nations
• Migration

MITIGATION
Reducing Climate Change - Reducing the flow of heat-trapping GHGs
into the atmosphere by:
• Reducing sources of these gases
• Enhancing sinks that accumulate and store these gases

GOALS OF MITIGATION
• Avoid significant human interference with climate system
• Stabilize greenhouse gas levels in a timeframe sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change
• Ensure that food production is not threatened
• Enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
- 2014 report on Mitigation of Climate Change from the UN IPCC

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION PLAN
• Many climate mitigation plans
presented
• Most famous is ‘wedge’ approach
called Climate Stabilization Wedge
• Put forth by Steven Pacala and
Robert Socolow
• 15 wedges - 15 strategies already
available that could each be scaled
up over the next 50 years to reduce
global carbon emissions by 1 billion
tons per year

CATEGORY I: EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATION
1. Efficient Vehicles
2. Reduced use of vehicles
3. Efficient buildings
4. Efficient electricity production
CATEGORY II: DECARBONISATION OF ELECTRICITY AND FUELS
5. Fuel switching (coal to gas)
6. Fossil-based electricity with carbon capture & storage (CCS)
7. Coal synfuels with CCS
8. Fossil-based hydrogen fuel with CCS
9. Nuclear power for coal power

10. Wind power for coal power
11. Photovoltaic (PV) power for coal power
12. Biofuels
13. Wind generated Hydrogen fuel
CATEGORY III: NATURAL SINKS
14. Reduced deforestation, plus reforestation and afforestation
15. Conservation tillage: Soil storage

CARBON
SEQUESTRATION
CARBON CAPTURE
AND STORAGE - CCS

DEFINITION
Natural and deliberate processes by which CO2 is either removed from
the atmosphere or diverted from emission sources and stored in the
ocean, terrestrial environments (vegetation, soils, and sediments), and
geologic formations
WHY?
To mitigate or defer global warming

CARBON SINKS
• NATURAL
• Oceans
• Forests
• Soil
• ARTIFICIAL
• Depleted oil reserves
• Unmineable coal beds, etc.

STEPS OF CCS
• Trapping and separating CO2 from other gases
• Transporting this captured CO2 to a storage location
• Storing that CO2 far away from atmosphere
• Underground
• Deep in the ocean

TYPES
Ocean Sequestration
• Carbon stored in oceans through direct injection or fertilization
Geologic Sequestration
• Natural pore spaces in geologic formations serve as reservoirs for long-term
carbon dioxide storage
Terrestrial Sequestration
• A large amount of carbon is stored in soils and vegetation, which are our
natural carbon sinks.
• Increasing carbon fixation through photosynthesis, and changing land use
practices can enhance carbon uptake in these natural sinks

Geologic Sequestration
• Hydrodynamic Trapping: Carbon dioxide can be trapped as a gas
under low-permeability cap rock (much like natural gas is stored in
gas reservoirs).
• Solubility Trapping: Carbon dioxide can be dissolved into a liquid,
such as water or oil.
• Mineral Carbonation: Carbon dioxide can react with the minerals,
fluids, and organic matter in a geologic formation to form stable
compounds/minerals; largely calcium, iron, and magnesium
carbonates.

BLACK CARBON – from SPM
BROWN CARBON – from gaseous air pollution
GREEN CARBON
• Carbon removed by photosynthesis
• Afforestation, Reforestation
BLUE CARBON
• Coastal, aquatic and marine carbon sinks
• Vegetation, marine organisms, sediments

SCOPE OF CCS IN POLICY MAKING
• Energy supply
• Transportation
• Buildings
• Industry
• Agriculture
• Forests
• Waste management

Recommended Readings
• Book: Acing CSS – Chapter 6 (on how
modern day capitalism has shaped
climate change)
• ‘Asking China for Help’ (on how to
tackle air pollution)

"Wishing to order well their states, they first
regulated their families. Wishing to regulate their
families, they first cultivated their persons“
- Confucius

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