Mariam Raouf POLICY SEMINAR Virtual Event - COVID-19’s Short-term Impacts on Economies, Food Systems and Poverty in African and Asian Countries: Economywide Estimates from Economywide Models Co-Organized by IFPRI and the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) AUG 11, 2020 - 09:30 AM TO 10:45 AM EDT

1. SUDAN
The Impacts of COVID-19 on
the Economy, Jobs and
Household Incomes
Mariam Raouf
Senior Research Associate
IFPRI - Cairo Office
August 11, 2020

2. Sudan followed a relatively light lockdown and number of official cases are low
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 3-Apr 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 1-May 8-May 15-May 22-May 29-May 5-Jun 12-Jun 19-Jun 26-Jun 3-Jul 10-Jul 17-Jul 24-Jul 31-Jul 7-Aug
Newconfirmedcases
First
confirmed
case and
all flights
suspended
Secondary school
final exams
postponed to July
and all business
to close at 4 pm
• Private and commercial inter-state
travel is banned
• Government increases salaries for
public sector employees
• 3-week lockdown in Khartoum and
Omdurman
• Government increased the health
budget from SDG 51.4 bn to SDG 81.4
bn
• Allocated SDG 12 bn in cash transfers
to the poorest households over a
period of 3 months
• Allocated SDG 10 bn for essential
commodity production support
program “Selaaty” (my commodity)
• Government allocates
unemployment assistance to
workers affected by the
pandemic
• 3-month tax break to small
businesses
• All land borders closed except for
humanitarian and cargo shipments
• All schools and universities closed
• Ban on all mass gatherings, including
religious celebrations, sports, and
restaurants
• Curfew from 20:00 to 6:00
• All long-haul bus services suspended
Government
distributed food
baskets to 600,000
households in
Khartoum
Sorghum
exports banned
• WHO trained 42 individuals in 14 states
(increasing the total number of trained health
care workers to 3,00 across the country).
• The 5-day training covered COVID-19
surveillance and contact tracing systems,
infection prevention and control practices,
case management methods, and how to
collect samples and arrange shipment to the
national laboratory in Khartoum.
• Participants were also trained on how to use
PPE safely and how best to wash their hands.
Phase-out
measure:
• Curfew
reduced to be
from 15:00 to
6:00
International
donations to Sudan
reached USD 1.8 bn
Phase-out measure:
• Public transportation
to resume operations
at 30% capacity
• International flights
started operating out
of Khartoum

3. GDP Losses During Lockdown
• National GDP dropped
by 13.8% during
lockdown period (most losses
occur in the services and industry
sectors)
Source: Sudan SAM Multiplier Results
Change in Total GDP during lockdown period (%)
• Food supply was
exempt from most
restrictions, but still
indirectly affected by
falling consumer
incomes & other
shocks
Food services are directly
affected by the closing of
hotels, restaurants & bars.
Change in agri-food GDP during lockdown period (%)
-13.8
-3.7
-15.4
-20.0
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Total Agriculture Industry Services
Changeduringlockdown
(%)
-13.8
-5.1 -3.7
-6.4
-4.2
-30.2
-20.8
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Total Agriculture
Food trade and
transport
Outside agri-food
system
Changeduringlockdown
Percentage change

4. Sources of GDP Losses
Restricting
trade and
transport
account for
around one
third of GDP
losses
Source: Sudan SAM Multiplier Results
Contribution of lockdown
restrictions & shocks to loss
in GDP during lockdown (sums to 100%)
Falling remittances reduce
household incomes &
consumption
Large knock-on effect on
goods producing sectors
(incl. suppliers of inputs to
all sectors)
20.3
13.6
13.0
12.3
8.4
8.4
6.3
5.4
5.1
3.7
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.5
0 5 10 15 20 25
Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade
Transport/travel restrictions
Closing non-essential business services
Limiting construction activities
Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
Direct restrictions on farming
Closing non-essential manufacturing operations
Falling government revenues
Limiting mining operations
Banning sports & other entertainment
Falling foreign remittances
Disruptions to hospitals and clinics
Reduced export demand
Closing all schools in the country
Contribution to change in total GDP (% | sums to 100%)

5. Impacts on Temporary Job Losses
Source: Sudan SAM Multiplier Results
Change in Employment during lockdown period (%)
-21.3
-19.8
-21.9
-13.1
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Total nonfarm Industry Services Total national
Changeduringlockdown(%)
Percentage change
Reduction in economic activity
may have led to a temporary job
loss of around 1.4 million jobs,
mainly driven by the decline in
service and manufacturing
activities.

6. Impacts on Household Incomes & Poverty
Source: Sudan SAM Multiplier Results
Change in household incomes during lockdown (%)
-14.7%
-14.0%
-14.9%
-12.1%
-17.7%
-20%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
All households Poor Non-poor Rural Urban
 All households experience income
losses (14.7 % of income)
 Urban and nonpoor households are
relatively more affected
 Incomes of rural & lower-income
households also fall (mainly due to
effects of food system disruptions on
farmer incomes)
 But poor households may find it
harder to cope and recover

7. COVID-19 Likely Pushes Sudan’s Economy into a
Recession and Increase Poverty in 2020
 Negative growth related to Covid-
19 is expected for 2020, ranging
from -3.7%-6.6%.
 Adding the negative impacts of
the desert locust crisis, we
estimate the negative growth rate
to reach -4.8%- 9.8%, under both
fast and slow recovery.
 Challenges related to political
transition may make the slow
recovery scenario more likely.
Predicted quarterly and annual growth rates in GDP for FY
2020 under different recovery scenarios
(compared with same period in 2019)
-2.1%
-0.3%
-3.7%
-6.0%
-3.9%
-6.6%-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
Q3 Q4 2020
Annual
Hundreds
Fast Recovery Slow recovery
Source: Sudan SAM Multiplier Results