This document provides context for a presentation on stock flow consistent models and agent based models. It discusses the stock flow consistent methodology, which models the economy based on flows of funds between sectors using balance sheets and transaction matrices. The goal is to build macroeconomic models that are internally consistent and can be used to simulate policy experiments. Two applications are discussed: an Irish macroeconomic model that looks at the economy from a balance sheet perspective, and an earlier stock flow consistent agent based model. Further work plans to estimate these types of models.
Chris Caton, Chief Economist at BT Financial Group, presented his economic preview for AIM NSW & ACT this week. "Share markets are still slightly cheap" is just one of the key findings. Read more in the attached slide show.
Chris Caton, Chief Economist at BT Financial Group, presented his economic preview for AIM NSW & ACT this week. "Share markets are still slightly cheap" is just one of the key findings. Read more in the attached slide show.
NCA's market research: 77% of consumers are confident about their consumer rights, supermarkets and shops selling clothing/footwear have highest satisfaction levels for customer service, airlines have lowest.
Scania Year-end Report, January-December 2012Scania Group
Scania's earnings for the full year 2012 amounted to SEK 8,300 m. Lower vehicle volume, lower capacity utilisation and a higher level of costs pulled down earnings. Order bookings for trucks rose during the fourth quarter of 2012.
Chelan PUD commissioners heard a recommendation on March 18, 2013, for changes to PUD water and sewer rates that will continue the move to sustainable, stable finances for those utility services.
Presented by:
Patrick Duffy MCR
President | Houston
Chairman Colliers Retail Specialty Group
Direct +1 713 830 2112 | Mobile +1 727 460 3215
Main +1 713 222 2111 |
NCA's market research: 77% of consumers are confident about their consumer rights, supermarkets and shops selling clothing/footwear have highest satisfaction levels for customer service, airlines have lowest.
Scania Year-end Report, January-December 2012Scania Group
Scania's earnings for the full year 2012 amounted to SEK 8,300 m. Lower vehicle volume, lower capacity utilisation and a higher level of costs pulled down earnings. Order bookings for trucks rose during the fourth quarter of 2012.
Chelan PUD commissioners heard a recommendation on March 18, 2013, for changes to PUD water and sewer rates that will continue the move to sustainable, stable finances for those utility services.
Presented by:
Patrick Duffy MCR
President | Houston
Chairman Colliers Retail Specialty Group
Direct +1 713 830 2112 | Mobile +1 727 460 3215
Main +1 713 222 2111 |
Rikvin offers Singapore Company Registration service including securing your Singapore Employment Pass and Singapore EntrePass Visa for Singapore Business Migration.
This initiative was designed to examine the city\’s historic paradigm and help establish our city as the most sustainable city in the country. It is designed to unify and empower our efforts and instill constancy of purpose in all that we do.
This initiative was designed to examine the city's historic paradigm and help establish our city as the most sustainable city in the country. It is designed to unify and empower our efforts and instill constancy of purpose in all that we do.
Nowadays, a Quality testing team is facing challenges to sustain its core activities and the same level of quality while new features, new platforms, more complex use cases are to covered.The Glassfish Quality Community is an initiative which intends to build a testing community around the Glassfish project and attempts to address the above challenges.
This session will present in details what the Glassfish Quality community is all about and what directions have been taken to meet its objectives
Social Media as a Bridge between Teaching and ResearchStephen Kinsella
Here's a talk I gave on Tuesday to a symposium on Social Media with Prof. Gerry McKiernan, revolving around using social media tools like this blog, the text messaging software, and The Twitter, etc, to communicate and interact with my students.
A Matching Model with Friction and Multiple CriteriaStephen Kinsella
We present a model of matching based on two character measures.
There are two classes of individual. Each individual
observes a sequence of potential partners from the opposite class.
One
measure describes the "attractiveness" of an individual.
Preferences are common according to
this measure: i.e. each individual prefers highly attractive partners and all individuals
of a given class agree as to how attractive individuals of the opposite class are. Preferences are
homotypic with respect to the second measure, referred to as "character" i.e.
all individuals prefer partners of a similar character.
Such a problem may be interpreted as e.g. a job search problem in which the classes
are employer and employee, or a mate choice problem in which the classes are male and
female.
It is assumed that
attractiveness is easy to measure and observable with certainty. However,
in order to observe the character of an individual, an interview (or courtship) is required.
Hence, on observing the attractiveness of a prospective partner an individual must decide whether he/she wishes
to proceed to the interview stage. Interviews only occur by mutual consent. A pair can only be formed
after an interview. During the interview phase the prospective pair
observe each other's
character, and then decide whether they wish to form a pair.
It is assumed that mutual acceptance is required for pair formation to
occur. An individual stops searching on finding a partner.
This paper
presents a general model of such a matching process. A particular case is
considered in which character "forms a ring" and has a uniform distribution.
A set of criteria based on the concept of a subgame
perfect Nash equilibrium is used to define the solution of this particular game. It is shown that
such a solution is unique. The general form of the solution is derived and a procedure for finding
the solution of such a game is given.
We all have good and bad thoughts from time to time and situation to situation. We are bombarded daily with spiraling thoughts(both negative and positive) creating all-consuming feel , making us difficult to manage with associated suffering. Good thoughts are like our Mob Signal (Positive thought) amidst noise(negative thought) in the atmosphere. Negative thoughts like noise outweigh positive thoughts. These thoughts often create unwanted confusion, trouble, stress and frustration in our mind as well as chaos in our physical world. Negative thoughts are also known as “distorted thinking”.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
Students, digital devices and success - Andreas Schleicher - 27 May 2024..pptxEduSkills OECD
Andreas Schleicher presents at the OECD webinar ‘Digital devices in schools: detrimental distraction or secret to success?’ on 27 May 2024. The presentation was based on findings from PISA 2022 results and the webinar helped launch the PISA in Focus ‘Managing screen time: How to protect and equip students against distraction’ https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/managing-screen-time_7c225af4-en and the OECD Education Policy Perspective ‘Students, digital devices and success’ can be found here - https://oe.cd/il/5yV
Ethnobotany and Ethnopharmacology:
Ethnobotany in herbal drug evaluation,
Impact of Ethnobotany in traditional medicine,
New development in herbals,
Bio-prospecting tools for drug discovery,
Role of Ethnopharmacology in drug evaluation,
Reverse Pharmacology.
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
How to Split Bills in the Odoo 17 POS ModuleCeline George
Bills have a main role in point of sale procedure. It will help to track sales, handling payments and giving receipts to customers. Bill splitting also has an important role in POS. For example, If some friends come together for dinner and if they want to divide the bill then it is possible by POS bill splitting. This slide will show how to split bills in odoo 17 POS.
2. Agent
based
models
and
stock
flow
consistent
models:
a
coherent
alterna@ve?
Stephen
Kinsella
University
of
Limerick
3. • Funded
with
a
series
of
grants
from
the
Ins@tute
for
New
Economic
Thinking,
INET,
Rannis,
Sta@s@cs
Iceland,
and
Irish
Research
Council.
• Overarching
goal
is
to
build
a
workable
model
comparable
to
models
used
in
CBs/Govt
Departments
for
policy
evalua@on/
counterfactual
scenario
tes@ng.
4. Today
• Context.
• Stock
flow
consistent
methodology.
What
is
it?
• SFC+ABM:
Why
connect
SFC
models
to
agent
Based
Models?
• 2
Applica@ons
– Irish
INET
model
basics
• Irish
economic
situa@on
from
a
balance
sheet
perspec@ve
– SFC
ABM
(Kinsella
et
al,
EEJ,
2011)
• Plan
of
Further
Work
8. SFC:
Horrible
name,
good
idea.
• Tobin
(1982)
in
his
Nobel
Lecture
and
Godley
and
Lavoie
(2007),
illustrated
the
generality
of
these
concepts
by
se`ng
out
a
model
of
the
economy
based
on
a
flow-‐of-‐funds
matrix.
• Each
column
shows
a
sector’s
balance
sheet
(for
stocks)
or
sources
and
uses
of
funds
(flows).
• Meanwhile,
a
row
shows
the
stock
or
flow
of
an
asset
as
it
is
distributed
among
the
supplying
and
demanding
sectors.
• Approach
now
common
in
simula@ng
models,
but
macro-‐
econometric
applica@ons
are
scarce
because
of
the
consistency
of
the
data
mainly
from
balance
sheet
with
those
of
the
real
economy
(Na@onal
Accounts).
9. Stock
flow
consistent
models
• Morris
A.
Copeland
(1949)
is
the
father
of
the
Flow
of
Funds
accoun@ng.
(Federal
Reserve
Bureau
Z.1
Release).
• Copeland’s
idea
was
to
enlarge
the
social
accoun@ng
perspec@ve
-‐
up
to
that
moment
used
mainly
in
the
study
of
na@onal
income
-‐
to
the
study
of
money
flows.
• Essen@ally
trying
to
find
an
answer
to
fundamental
economic
ques@on:
‘when
total
purchases
of
our
na@onal
product
increase,
where
does
the
money
come
from
to
finance
them?
When
purchases
of
our
na@onal
product
decline,
what
becomes
of
the
money
that
is
not
spent?’
(Copeland,
1949,
p.
254)
10. Tobin
1982,
Nobel
Lecture
These
models
should
have
1.
Precision
regarding
@me.
2.
Tracking
of
stocks.
3.
Several
assets
and
rates
of
return.
4.
Modeling
of
financial
and
monetary
policy
opera@ons.
5.
Walras’s
Law
and
adding
up
constraints.
J.
Tobin.
Money
and
finance
in
the
macroeconomic
process.
Journal
of
Money,
Credit
and
Banking,
14(2):171–204,
1982.
11. Joan
Robinson
“Before
a
model
can
be
confronted
with
empirical
tests,
it
has
to
be
examined
for
internal
consistency
and
for
the
a
priori
plausibility
of
its
assump@ons”
-‐-‐-‐Joan
Robinson,
What
are
the
quesFons?
JEL
14(4)
1977,
pp.
1319-‐1320.
12. Godley
&
Lavoie
• Sectoral
models
• Set
up
balance
and
transac@on
matrices
• Build
a
model’s
equa@ons
from
the
balance
sheet
rela@ons
(Behavioural
and
Iden@ty
rela@ons)
• Solve
for
steady
state
• Shock
using
‘policy
experiments’
through
simula@on.
• Lem
open
the
ques@on
of
es@ma@ng
these
models.
• This
is
my
group’s
central
problem.
13. Evolu@on
of
stock
flow
models:
sectors
Godin
et
al,
2013
Stock
flow
consistent
modeling
through
the
ages,
Levy
Ins@tute
WP
745
17. Issues/Problems
to
solve
• Consistency/ • Es@ma@ng
SFC
Frequency/Bubble
models
is
very
issues/Transfer
hard,
especially
pricing
porpolio
balance
equa@ons.
Data
Es@ma@on
Applica@on
Equa@ons
• Want
this
to
be
as
• Constantly
policy-‐relevant
as
balancing
possible
completeness
off
against
complexity
18. Real
world
balance
sheet.
2011Q1 NFC FC G HH ROW
Balance sheet A L A L A L A L A L
G & SDRs 841 841
Deposits 34,461 358,423 17,907 122,776 183,280 1
Bonds 233 451,093 69,945 455 381,371 -1
Loans 84,852 602,826 46,207 184,912 286,855 0
Equities 150,940 557,115 17,539 46,261 644,255 0
ITR 3,511 208,755 125,895 79,349 0
Other 10,489 1,045 2,304 5,553 14,783 0
Wealth (A-L) -208,542 -70,578 -78,402 104,922 253,441 -841
Sum (A-L) 0 0 0 0 0 0
19. Simplified
2011Q1 NFC FC G HH ROW
Balance sheet A L A L A L A L A L
Deposits 34,461 358,423 17,907 122,776 183,280 1
Bonds 233 451,093 69,945 455 381,371 -1
Loans 84,852 602,826 46,207 184,912 286,855 0
Equities 150,940 557,115 17,539 46,261 644,255 0
Wealth (A-L) -201,564 138,381 -80,706 -15,420 159,309 0
Sum (A-L) 0 0 0 0 0 0
21. Simula@on
studies
• Kinsella
&
Khalil
2011
Debt
Defla@on
Traps
within
Small
Open
Economies
• Kinsella
&
Khalil
2011
Bad
Banks
Choking
Good
Banks:
Simula@ng
Balance
Sheet
Contagion
• Kinsella
&
Godin
2012
Leverage,
Liquidity
and
Crisis:
A
Simula@on
Study
22. Es@ma@on
Studies
• O’Shea
&
Kinsella
(2010)
Solu@on
and
Simula@on
of
Large
Stock
Flow
Consistent
Monetary
Produc@on
Models
Via
the
Gauss
Seidel
Algorithm
• Godin
et
al
(2012)
Method
to
Simultaneously
Determine
Stock,
Flow,
and
Parameter
Values
in
Large
Stock
Flow
Consistent
Models
• Work
in
progress
w/
Rudi
Von
Arim
(UTAH)
on
‘solving’
and
studying
SFC
matrices
numerically.
23. Agent
based
Studies
• Kinsella,
Greiff
&
Nell
Income
Distribu@on
in
a
Stock-‐Flow
Consistent
Model
with
Educa@on
and
Technological
Change
Eastern
Economic
Journal,
Vol.
37,
Issue
1,
pp.
134-‐149,
2011
• New
IRC
&
INET
grants
w/
Mauro
Gallega@
&
Joe
S@glitz
to
bring
ABM
approach
closer
to
SFC
&
Vice
versa.
24. Pure
Dynamic
Empirical
Es9mated
SFC
Pure
Sta9c
Simula9on
simula9on
Model
Simula9on
• Calibra@on
• Empirical
• No
balance
• Calibra@on
• Dynamic
calibra@on
sheets,
par@al
• Sta@c
parameters
∆
• Real
world
data
es@ma@on
parameters
period
by
• Dynamic
• No
balance
• No
empirical
period
parameters
sheets,
full
data
• No
Empirical
• Natural
macro
es@ma@on
• Coherent
data
ra@o
coherent
• Par@al
Balance
macro
ra@o
criteria,
eg.
• Coherent
• More
sheets,
full
Debt/GDP
macro
ra@o
constraints
in
es@ma@on.
criteria,
e.g.
calibra@on
• Full
balance
Debt/GDP
• Use
country
sheets,
full
balance
sheets.
es@ma@on.
25. A
word
on
closures.
Lance
Taylor
(1991:
41):
‘Formally,
prescribing
closure
boils
down
to
sta@ng
which
variables
are
endogenous
or
exogenous
in
an
equa@on
system
largely
based
upon
macroeconomic
accoun@ng
iden@@es,
and
figuring
out
how
they
influence
one
another
...
.
A
sense
of
ins@tu@ons
and
history
necessarily
enters
into
any
serious
discussion
of
macro
causality’
26. Adjustment
Processes.
The
adjustment
processes
within
the
model
towards
the
steady
state
will
be
based
on
simple
reac@on
func@ons
to
disequilibria.
27. Note
that
the
empirical
values
for
adjusted
GDP,
and
GNP,
are
not
directly
comparable
to
standard
SNA
95
defini@ons.
An
example
will
show
you
why.
34. SFC
ABM
Much
more
developed,
connec@ons
to
Sectoral
complexity/network
theory/etc
No
black
holes
Individual
rather
than
sectoral
Avoids
lots
of
neoclassical
modeling
Porpolio
es@ma@on/simula@on
v.
easy
problems
Focus
on
closures
Models
agent
interac@ons
more
naturally
Focus
on
empirical
regulari@es
eg
power
Needs
solu@on
methods
laws
36. SFC
model
with
interac@ng
agents
• 4
Sectors,
households,
firms,
banks,
government.
• Workers...
– search
for
work.
– work
for
a
wage
or
get
dole.
– spend
money
on
consump@on.
– spend
money
on
educa@on.
• Firms...
– hire
workers.
– pay
wages.
– receive
revenue
from
selling
output.
• Government:
collects
taxes
and
provides
dole.
• Banks
lend
out,
can
go
broke.
• Model
allows
for
changes
in
educa@on/employment/income/
wealth
37. Nice
features
• no
representa@ve
agent
• no
u@lity
func@on
• no
ra@onal
expecta@ons
• large
number
of
heterogeneous
agents
• individual
behavior
is
unpredictable
• individuals
follow
simple
rules
• indeterminacy
at
the
micro
level
(random
selec@on
from
a
given
distribu@on)
• SFC
Adding
up
constraints.
41. Cool
stuff:
Measuring
Mobility
• Via
G.S.
Fields
&
E.A.
Ok,
“Measuring
Movement
of
Income”,
Economica
(1999).
• Mb=1/N*∑
|log
m_{0}−log
m_{1}|
• Implies
Higher
savings
→
lower
mobility.
42.
43. Conclusion
&
Further
Work
• Promising
connec@ons/crossovers
• Benchmark
model
to
be
built,
an
INET
group
exists
for
this
now.
• Lots
of
unexplored
areas,
open
ques@ons,
low
hanging
and
high-‐hanging
fruit.
• Fun
@mes
ahead!