THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA & NETWORK GOVERNANCE ON STATE STABILITY IN TIMES OF TURBULENCE EGYPT AFTER THE 2011 REVOLUTION

1. THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA & NETWORK
GOVERNANCE ON STATE STABILITY IN TIMES
OF TURBULENCE
EGYPT AFTER THE 2011 REVOLUTION
Faculteit Economische, Politieke en Sociale
Wetenschappen en Solvay Business School
Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen
By
Karim Hamza

2. Egyptian Revolution 2011
21 Feb.2013 Karim Hamza 2
During the revolution it appeared that social media as
well as network governance played an important
steering role as instruments that can impact state
stability, but they were not used adequately.

3. Problem Definition
• There is a growing attention toward political analysis models
that can:
– Assess state governance situation.
– Consider non-state actors influence
– Consider other non-western forms of organisation, rule-making and
conflict resolution (OECD, 2008).
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4. Main Objectives
• Develop a model to describe the state governance situation
with respect to state stability in times of turbulence
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5. Contribution of the Study
Circle of State Stability Model (CSS)

6. Circle of State Stability Model – Why?
• The proposed model represents an improvement of
existing models because it is:
– Simpler and easier for policy-makers to understand.
– Covers the macro level.
– Tailored for different state conditions.
– Functions as a general conceptual framework.
– Other models can be embedded inside it.
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7. Circle of State Stability Model – What ?
• The model was designed to represent the impact of network
governance on state stability in a specific state or country
based on the following assumptions.
1. The main types of governance structure in the country:
hierarchy and network.
2. State instability appears due to four main categories of
instability conditions: confrontation, dictatorship, anarchy and
failed state (P.77-79 and P.87).
3. State stability can be achieved if the state governance structure
can achieve a reasonable balance between legal, democratic
and economic values (P.44-47).
• CSS is designed as a conceptual model to help describe and
document Egypt’s political situation after the 2011 revolution.
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8. Governance Analysis Framework (GAF)
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Phase /
Component
Phase I
Scope Map
Phase II
Stakeholder Map
Phase III
Process Map
Phase IV
Governance Map
Objective Describe the main
streams:
• Problem Stream
• Solution Stream
• Political Stream
Describe who are the
main actors and their
relation with each
other inside the
governance model.
• Citizen Power
• Executive Authority
• Judicial Authority
• Legislative Authority
• Non-state Political
Power
Identify policy networks
collations and their usage
of social media.
• Identify Control level of
main actors on social
media.
• Identify Confrontation
level on social media.
Describe the progress
(or not) of the state
transformation from
transition state
toward a state
stability.
Based on Multiple Stream
Model, (Kingdom,
Porter, 1984/1995)
Policy Network
Analysis [PNA],
(Rhodes, 1995)
Advocacy Coalition
Framework [ACF],
(Sabatier & Jenkins-Smith,
1999)
and
Social media
Circle of State
Stability

9. Case Study Analysis
• Different drivers influence state stability.
• Focus on the impact of social media on state stability by
considering :
– Control over social media
and
– Confrontation over social media.
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10. Case Study Analysis
Egyptian Constitutional
Referendum 2011
February 2011 - March 2011
• Result
– Proponents (YES): 77.27%
(Brotherhood, Salafis
movement, Old Regime
supporters)
– Opponents (NO): 22.73%
(Liberal , Kefaya, 6th April,
Baradei, Amr Mousa,
Christians)
Fig. 9 P.125
Egyptian Parliamentary 2012
elections
October 2011 – March 2012
• Result
– Islamic Ideology Parties
(Al Horreya Wel Adala, Al-Nour)
Aprox. 70%
– Liberal Ideology Parties
(Egyptian Bloc)
Aprox. 15%
– New Revolutionary Parties
(Revolution Continues Alliance)
Aprox. 1.38%
P. 145, 147, Fig 5 P. 151
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11. 21 Feb.2013 Karim Hamza 11
High
Hierarchy
High
Netw
ork
AnarchyState
Dictatorship
State
Network Governance control level
HierarchyGovernanceControllevel
Tendency to
State Control
Circle of State
Stability
Tendency to Non-
State Control
Tendency to
Revolution
Tendency to State
Failure
Circle of State Stability
Low
Netw
ork&
Hierarchy
No Control
Extreme
State Control
State Control
against Policy
Network Control
High
Netw
ork&
Hierarchy
Extreme Network control
Confrontation
State
Failed
State
EGYPT
2
EGYPT
3
EGYPT
1
Egypt during the 2011
Revolution
Jan’11- March’11
Egypt after the 2011
Revolution
March’11-Dec’12
Egypt before 2011
Revolution
Confrontation level
with Network
Confrontation
level with
Hierarchy
Governance
transformation in
Egypt after 2011
revolution

12. 21 Feb.2013 Karim Hamza 12
High
Hierarchy
High
Netw
ork
AnarchyState
Dictatorship
State
Network Governance control level
HierarchyGovernanceControllevel
Tendency to
State Control
Circle of State
Stability
Tendency to Non-
State Control
Tendency to
Revolution
Tendency to State
Failure
Low
Netw
ork&
Hierarchy
No Control
Absolute
State Control
State Control
against Policy
Network Control
High
Netw
ork&
Hierarchy
Absolute Policy Network control
Confrontation
State
Failed
State
EGYPT
EGYPT
EGYPT
EGYPT
2011 Revolution
Jan’11- March’11
Constitution Referendum
February’11-April’11
Parliamentary Elections
October’11-March’12
Presidential Elections
April’12 - June’12
Circle of State Stability
Confrontation level
with Network
Confrontation
level with
Hierarchy
Egypt ideal
Positions on the
Circle of State
Stability Model

13. 21 Feb.2013 Karim Hamza 13
High
Hierarchy
High
Netw
ork
AnarchyState
Dictatorship
State
Network Governance control level
HierarchyGovernanceControllevel
Tendency to
State Control
Circle of State
Stability
Tendency to Non-
State Control
Tendency to
Revolution
Tendency to State
Failure
Low
Netw
ork&
Hierarchy
No Control
Absolute
State Control
State Control
against Policy
Network Control
High
Netw
ork&
Hierarchy
Absolute Policy Network control
Confrontation
State
Failed
State
EGYPT
EGYPT
EGYPT
EGYPT
2011 Revolution
Jan’11- March’11
Constitution Referendum
February’11-April’11
Dissolving the Parliament
June’12
Presidential Elections
April’12 - June’12
Circle of State Stability Model
Confrontation level
with Network
Confrontation
level with
Hierarchy
EGYPT
Parliamentary Elections
October’11-March’12
EGYPT
Constitution
Reformation
March’12-
November’12
EGYPT
scenario A: networks confrontation
scenario B: State control
Egypt’s Actual
Progress on CSS
since 2011

14. Conclusion
• The role of social media in Egypt after the 2011 revolution can be
understood through its relationship with the creation of policy networks,
organisations, communications and mobilisation mechanisms for mass
protest.
• Social media provided the space and tools to form and expand networks
that the Egyptian authorities could not easily control during the time
frame of the two case studies.
• Despite debate on impact of social media, it actually helped different
policy networks by facilitating new connections among the middle-class
youth and supporting the circulation of stories, videos, blogs, tweets,
posts that promoted the interests of these policy networks.
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15. Future Discussions
• Address the role that market governance plays with regard to state
stability.
• Outline the role of different drivers, like culture and societal
structure.
• State stability prioritisation issues must be reviewed more carefully
and in detail for each country because needs such as security
safeguards, welfare, food and others differ across countries.
• The effect of external influences on state stability requires
additional study from an international relations prospective.
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16. Thank You
Questions