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Assessing the regulatory challenges of emerging
disruptive technologies
Araz Taeihagh , M Ramesh
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Michael Howlett
Department of Political Science, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
Abstract
The past decade has witnessed the emergence of many technologies that have the potential to fundamentally alter our eco-
nomic, social, and indeed personal lives. The problems they pose are in many ways unprecedented, posing serious challenges
for policymakers. How should governments respond to the challenges given that the technologies are still evolving with
unclear trajectories? Are there general principles that can be developed to design governance arrangements for these technolo-
gies? These are questions confronting policymakers around the world and it is the objective of this special issue to offer
insights into answering them both in general and with respect to speciïŹc emerging disruptive technologies. Our objectives are
to help better understand the regulatory challenges posed by disruptive technologies and to develop generalizable propositions
for governments’ responses to them.
Keywords: disruptive technology, emerging technology, governance, policy, regulation, technological disruption.
1. Introduction
How should governments respond to emerging technologies which may fundamentally and quickly change econ-
omies and societies? What ought to be the role of the state in managing the adoption of such disruptive technolo-
gies? Are there generalizable principles about regulation and the construction of regulatory regimes are available
to policy designers as they navigate the challenges posed by these technologies? These are some of the questions
that confront regulators and governments across the world on which the existing literature on regulation and
governance offers little guidance. It is the objective of this paper to contextualize these questions and offer a
framework for conceptualizing and eventually answering them.
Recent emerging disruptive technologies – such as autonomous vehicles, autonomous weapon systems,
blockchain technology, ride-sharing, genomics, and the Internet of Things (IoT) – have triggered changes that
are threatening existing socio-economic systems. The heightened pace of technological innovation poses serious
challenges to governments that must cope with the disruptive speed and scope of the transformations occurring
in many domains. While these technologies offer opportunities for improvements to economic efïŹciency and
quality of life, they also generate many unexpected consequences and pose new forms of risks (Li et al. 2018;
Taeihagh & Lim 2019). Government responses to these technologies must consider citizen’s safety, privacy, and
security as well as protection of their livelihood and health. However, regulating and governing these technologies
is challenging due to high levels of risk and uncertainty associated with them (Li et al. 2020; Tan & Taeihagh,
2020) and that often the beneïŹciaries of these technologies – the investors, producers and users – do not bear the
costs of their risks, transferring them instead to the society at large or to governments. Moreover, the “pacing
problem” or the lag between the state’s regulatory agencies (often slow) responses to challenges of these technolo-
gies further exacerbate the situation (Marchant 2011).
Correspondence: Araz Taeihagh, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 469B Bukit Timah
Road, Li Ka Shing Building, Level 2, #02-10, Singapore 259771. Email: spparaz@nus.edu.sg, araz.taeihagh@new.oxon.org
ConïŹ‚icts of interest: The authors declare that they have no conïŹ‚icts of interest to report.
Accepted for publication 13 February 2021.
© 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided
the original work is properly cited.
Regulation & Governance (2021) doi:10.1111/rego.12392
In the next section, we conceptualize what it is that makes disruptive technologies a challenging policy prob-
lem. Here we abstract away from speciïŹc technologies and focus on the challenges these developments pose to
existing arrangements and actors. In the following section we show the asynchronous use of substantive and pro-
cedural policy tools used by regulators. Further, effectively deploying an asynchronous mix of tools requires
investments in anticipatory policy capacities of regulatory agencies and not just consideration of, for example, the
economic consequences of tighter licensing or privacy laws (Howlett et al. 2018). We conclude with a summary
of the articles that are part of this special issue and brieïŹ‚y highlight their contribution to this analysis and under-
standing of the challenges to existing regulation and governance caused by speciïŹc emerging disruptive
technologies.
In advancing these arguments, this introductory article brings together two disparate bodies of scholarship:
Bernstein’s (1955) life-cycle analogy of regulatory development and the “new” design orientation in the contem-
porary policy sciences to highlight the speciïŹc nature of the different kinds of tools that can be used to address
contemporary policy challenges. It argues the regulatory challenge facing disruptive technologies centers on how
to develop a portfolio of substantive and procedural tools in an asynchronous fashion initially; correcting past
problems while developing anticipatory capacities through the early stages of the regulatory life cycle.
2. Technological disruption as a policy problem
What is it about emerging technologies that makes them a policy “problem” that needs to be tackled? How and
why does “disruption” demand a government regulatory response rather than some other? In answering these
technological innovations it is important to understand the difïŹculties they pose to existing arrangements and the
unique issues and challenges they raise concerning social and economic relationships in society.
2.1. Asymmetries in information
One problem posed by emerging disruptive technologies which poses problems for their dissemination and
control is directly linked to their hi-tech nature and the limited knowledge that most social actors have con-
cerning how it works and why, and what are the possible applications and consequences of its deployment.
That is, in policy terms, the policy environment with respect to emerging technologies is characterized by
asymmetries in information across agents and at multiple levels of society and government. As Becker and
Brownson (1964) and others have pointed out, even when knowledge is already available on a technological
subject, policymakers may not be aware of it and thus undertake decisionmaking in a situation of uninformed
ignorance.
Similar to the situation that exists in other complex sectors such as healthcare, there are gaps in the informa-
tion possessed by different actors in the sector which advantage some actors over others, making equal exchange
problematic (Bali & Ramesh 2015). Just as healthcare providers enjoy innate advantages over users and insurers,
technologists and entrepreneurs enjoy knowledge advantage vis-Ă -vis regulators and consumers. Indeed, techni-
cians enjoy an advantage vis-Ă -vis their business partners with respect to the potential and limitations of the tech-
nology in question.
There are also asymmetries between investors, companies, and consumers and regulators who do not have
complete information on what next steps are possible, feasible or likely, or how a given technology can or may be
scaled up, or what is the ultimate goal of the agent introducing a “technology.” This is relevant as technologies
are continually scaled and improved through an iterative process, and are unlike other services that government
must regulate which tend to be relatively discrete products or services. All of these problems are exacerbated in
the case of new technologies which serve as platforms – such as social media or the internet itself – for additional
systems and functionalities often not imagined at the outset of their deployment.
2.2. Policy uncertainty
More fundamentally, policy design and regulatory action in these sectors takes place in an environment of great
uncertainty (Walker et al. 2013). As Stirling (2010) noted, different kinds of uncertainty exist and not all situa-
tions of knowledge and ignorance demand the same policy response. Parameter and associated “fuzzy”
© 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
2
A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies
uncertainty are of course common in routine policymaking. Thus, policymakers routinely make decisions on, for
example, interest rates without knowing the actual unemployment rate at the time (Schrader et al. 1993; Walker
et al. 2013). Even when causal relationships and future scenarios are relatively well known, there is always some
uncertainty with respect to policy predictions due to data and statistical limitations (Morgan & Henrion 1990;
Manski 2013).
In the case of emerging disruptive technologies, however, uncertainty is much more profound and pervasive.
Governments are typically not entirely aware of the nature of the policy problem they are trying to address and
are unsure of what a regulatory solution might look like. Thus, for example, it took some time for bike-share reg-
ulators to realize the signiïŹcant problems caused by bike abandonment and the difïŹculties in curbing the behav-
ior through regulations. Their experience in regulating abandonment of motor vehicles was of little practical
relevance to shared bikes. This lack of awareness, let alone understanding, of the speciïŹc challenges of disruptive
new technologies pose a major problem for regulators.
Decision makers aware of these gaps may function with an attitude of prudent awareness and deploy proce-
dural policy tools to gather information and continually monitor and learn from experience. However, they may
act with a hubristic attitude or overconïŹdence when they are unaware of their ignorance which may exacerbate
existing problems (Becker & Brownson 1964).
2.3. Structural power dynamics
In addition to the challenges posed by uncertainty and information asymmetries, technological disruptions also
affect different members of society differently. Some sectors of society may beneïŹt from the deployment of
emerging technologies and the disruptions they involve while others lose out. And disputes between winners
(such as technology entrepreneurs and venture capitalists) and losers (such as employees of disrupted industries)
or those positively or negatively impacted can be deep, widespread, abstruse.
Thus, for example, the proliferation of the sharing economy and IT platforms such as Uber, TaskRabbit, and
Amazon Mechanical Turk have brought to the fore regulatory issues such as: whether workers on these platforms
are independent contractors or employees, whether maximum work hours per day and minimum pay thus
applies to these workers, or whether these platforms can have exclusivity clauses that tie workers to them
(Taeihagh 2017). If workers are categorized as employees, they may be subject to regulatory requirements around
contributions to social security programs, unemployment insurance, and other statutory requirements that do
not apply to self-employed contractors. The Fair Work Commission in Australia recently ruled that Uber drivers
were independent contractors and not employees as per the Employment Act in Australia. However, the Unem-
ployment Insurance Appeal Board of the State of New York in a similar case ruled to the contrary and made
Uber liable for contributing to unemployment insurance.
2.4. Errors in design of interventions and policy responses
Regulators must negotiate and balance the economic interests of agents that drive these innovations with those of
citizens and members of societies that are affected by the outcomes of these innovations. But in approving “new”
technologies or regulating a technology, or deciding whether the state should intervene, regulators are often faced
with a trade-off between reducing possible type 1 and type 2 errors – that is overregulating benign technologies
or under-regulating those that are difïŹcult to regulate (Waring et al. 2020).
If we accept the null hypothesis that disruptive technologies are harmful to citizens, two common trajecto-
ries may be expected. The ïŹrst is that the government does not intervene or immediately approves the deploy-
ment of a new technology but remains ready to react when inevitable problems emerge. The second is that the
government intervenes aggressively, establishes safeguards, but delays the deployment of the technology. Type
1 overreaction errors aim to protect the society at large before all the ramiïŹcations of technological deployment
are clear or type 2 errors protects the economic interests of the innovators in the ïŹrst instance, but may cause
damage to society at large. Constant monitoring, data collection, and dissemination are vital under both
scenarios.
© 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. 3
Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett
3. Regulatory responses to disruptive technologies
Addressing the challenges that disruptive technologies pose requires application of a range of policy tools to
shape policy targets, establish governance relationships and norms within the sector. This involves carefully
assembling a combination of “substantive” and “procedural” tools in a policy “mix” or “portfolio” or “package”
(Chapman 2003; Hennicke 2004; Taeihagh et al. 2013; Howlett et al. 2015). Thus, for example, companies that
offer ride-sharing are subject to a combination of many substantive regulatory tools such as licenses and stan-
dards, as well as procedural tools such as structured market competition and stakeholder consultations
(Li et al. 2018, 2020).
There is, however, an overarching preference to rely on regulatory tools to contain the risks posed by technol-
ogies. Regulation may be usefully deïŹned as “a process or activity in which government requires or proscribes
certain activities or behavior on the part of individuals and institutions, mostly private but sometimes public, and
does so through a continuing administrative process
” (Reagan 1987, p. 17). In this view, regulation is largely a
substantive tool – a requirement or prescription – targeted at speciïŹc groups with the intention of changing their
behavior to align with the government’s objectives. However, the deïŹnition also has a procedural component in
the sense that the measures need to be administered through continuing administrative processes. In addition,
organizational and ïŹscal tools are often used to reinforce the regulation in question. Thus, regulations are a
“mix” of substantive and procedural components rather than a single discrete policy tool (Krebs 2004;
Rosenbloom 2007; Leonardi 2010).
These regulatory mixes exist as sectoral “regimes”, that is, enabling legislation and standards established over
time on a sectoral or issue-by-issue basis such as by industry in the case of automotive fuel standard or by-
product or process, such as a ban on toxic chemicals (Hood et al. 1999). In either case, according to Eisner (1994),
the application of the term “regime” to regulatory activity is intended to convey the same sense that it carries in
international relations theory: “implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decisionmaking procedures
around which actors’ expectations converge in a given area” (Krasner 1982, p. 186). A regulatory regime is thus
an institutionalized (though not necessarily codiïŹed) instrument mix which contains a set of behaviors and
expectations on the part of regulators and regulated in which both sets of actors understand the procedural and
substantive rules which affect them and agree to abide by them, albeit often not entirely willingly.
Regulation may come directly from government or its designated government agencies or independent com-
missions, but may also originate in private trade associations or even international organizations (Lilly &
Knepper 1993). Moreover, regulations may take many forms, from command and control regulation to self-
regulation (Howlett 2019) which may appear different but share many similarities. There are also voluntary regu-
latory regimes with no legally binding rules (Whitford & Tucker 2012), regimes with activist government regula-
tors eager to create new rules (Bamberger & Mulligan 2011), and regimes in which the targeted industry beneïŹts
from a captured regulator (Croucher 2011). Which if any of these modes is appropriate in the case of emerging
disruptive technologies and how they should be implemented remain open questions.
Disruptive technologies, although all “recent”, are at various stages of regulatory development and govern-
ments have understandably responded to them with different strategies at different speed, from no response to
prevention, precaution, traditional control, toleration, and adaptation (Li et al. 2018, 2020; Taeihagh &
Lim 2019). Although there is considerable variation within and across different sectors, there is also a common
trajectory for the evolution of regulatory regimes which is as relevant to emerging technologies as their mature
counterparts.
The origin and evolution of regulations entail vital implications for emerging regulation in general and regula-
tion of emerging disruptive technologies in particular. First, for example, it implies that different high-technology
sectors can be expected to be at different stages of regime development depending on the length of time since the
beginning of the cycle and the nature of the crises and responses which have occurred in each case. Moreover,
even in the same sector, there may not be uniformity in progression in regulatory stages and developments if
multiple new technologies are deployed simultaneously, as with the case of the IoT or autonomous vehicles.
Hence, for example, regulation of autonomous vehicles may be at very different stages concerning aspects related
to privacy and cybersecurity and those linked to safety and liability issues (Lim & Taeihagh 2018; Taeihagh &
Lim 2019). As a result, when viewing a regulatory regime in a large umbrella category such as “hi-tech”, one
© 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
4
A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies
should not expect to see a uniform set of practices and processes but rather a pattern of laggards and leaders as
each issue area moves through its own standard-setting process.
A second signiïŹcant characteristic of efforts to regulate emerging technologies is asynchronous application of
different types of regulatory tools. That is, regulation involves both substantive and procedural policy tools. The
former relative to substantive requirements and prohibitions, backed by rewards and punishment, while latter
includes participatory decision processes designed to produce better substantive decisions for the future
(Howlett 2000).
While the substantive tools are “in the now”, in the sense that the level and type of regulation relates directly
to resolving problems which occurred in past phases, the procedural tools are more anticipatory and are typically
geared towards the future. The latter are intended to anticipate the next crisis and the kinds of substantive tools
that would be needed to deal with it. Thus, for example, current inquiries about the challenges posed by Autono-
mous Vehicles portend the development of remedial substantive tools to deal with cybersecurity issues prior to
need for their adoption (Lim & Taeihagh 2018) while the actual regulations in place deal mainly with health and
safety challenges and liabilities which featured prominently in earlier eras. This asynchonicity between procedural
and substantive tools remains the case until the regime matures and stabilizes as new problems diminish, all-
owing both kinds of tools to synchronize.
4. Application of regulatory life cycle theory to disruptive technologies
While regulations have been the subject of intense study for decades, much of the existing research concentrates
on answering basic questions such as whether or not regulation should be deployed in the ïŹrst place
(e.g. Demsetz 1968) or examining the mature stages of a regulatory body in which the regulators have been “cap-
tured” by the industry they regulate (e.g. Bernauer 2003; Dal Bo 2006; Carpenter 2010). Less attention has been
paid to the other stages of a regulatory regime, including the processes through which regulatory standards
develop in speciïŹc issue area. This has not always been the case, however, as some of the earliest works on regula-
tion did adopt a temporal perspective which can be usefully deployed to examine the case of disruptive technolo-
gies. In his pathbreaking 1955 work, Regulating Business by Independent Commission, for example, Marver
Bernstein noted the signiïŹcance of time in the process of regulatory development and suggested that regulatory
agencies tend to follow a set pattern of evolution or lifecycle, one which roughly parallels a human life
(Bernstein 1955).
The history of regulatory activity with respect to new technologies – from food and drug administration to
automobile safety standards – reveals a typical life-cycle process through which standards emerge and become
institutionalized in a mature regulatory regime (Bernstein 1955; Howlett & Newman 2013). As pointed by Bern-
stein (1955) over a half century ago, in general, evolution of regulations may be viewed as analogous to a genea-
logical process through which a regime moves from creation to death, with recognizable stages and punctuations
along the way.
In this work, Bernstein postulated that regulatory regimes go through four distinct phases: gestation, in which
a public problem is ïŹrst perceived by its relevant stakeholders, and organized advocacy for a solution begins;
youth, in which an activist, autonomous, regulatory body struggles to deïŹne its powers and jurisdiction amid legal
opposition from industry groups. Next, regulations reach maturity, where a stable regime emerges whose powers
and duties are agreed upon by all sides and in which the autonomous regulatory body acts mechanically as a tri-
bunal of the regime. Finally they reach old age, when an industry has fully captured the regime and the regulatory
body’s main role is to ïŹght to retain the status quo. Each stage in this regime life-cycle is linked to the often very
slow process of the development of what ultimately emerges as a set of court-supported standards administered
by government agencies and maintained over a long period of time. Movement through these stages is not auto-
matic but rather crisis-driven. That is, in general, movement stalls at one stage unless there is some crisis
highlighting its inadequacy, ratcheting up the regulatory spiral (Howlett & Newman 2013). Without a crisis, the
existing regime is likely to remain in place unaltered.
Over the 65 years since Bernstein’s work ïŹrst appeared, some stages of the regulatory regime lifecycle have
been well-explored, while others have remained under-explored. The moment of regulatory birth, for example,
has been examined in studies focusing on the question of whose interests were served by the creation of a
© 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. 5
Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett
particular regime (Stigler 1971, 1975). Similarly, the maturity stage has been examined by scholars of issues such
as regulatory capture and by students of administrative law examining the role of the judiciary in regulatory
review (e.g. May & Winter 1999; McGarity 2001). The stages of regulatory decline have also been analyzed in
works focusing on policy termination (Bardach 1976; DeLeon 1983; Lewis 2002) or de-regulation (Derthick &
Quirk 1985; Collier 1998; Lazer & Mayer-Schonberger 2002).
However, the stages between what Bernstein termed “gestation” and “maturity” – or what he called the
“youth” phase of regulatory regime development – remain very much underexplored. This is a critical period,
however, one in which the agencies and rules which go on to comprise an often very long-lasting mature regime
are created and put into place. We argue that understanding regulatory processes for emerging novel technologies
require an understanding of the forces and processes at work in these early stages of regime development.
The recent wave of disruptive technologies have been affected by the development of various decision tech-
nologies such as Crowdsourcing and Big Data Analytics (Prpi
c et al. 2015; Athey 2017; Taeihagh 2017b) that cre-
ate both new problems and opportunities for governments. For instance, policy responses to the Covid-19
pandemic have ranged from the use of established technologies such as GPS to improve quarantine enforcement;
introducing mobile applications that use Bluetooth to measure propinquity and improve contact-tracing; to more
sophisticated technologies that use a combination of mobile-phone-tower data and machine learning to develop
social graphs. The latter can measure the propensity and frequency with which people meet or pass through a
certain location (The Economist 2020). While these technologies inform and aid policy implementation and the
decisionmaking practices, they also give rise to a series of concerns around privacy and civil liberties. Given their
disruptive nature, novel technologies inevitably draw government attention and generate pressures to contain
their adverse effects. This can already be seen developing in areas such as data protection, privacy, ride-sharing,
autonomous vehicles, healthcare and a variety of other sectors (Bygrave 2010; Li et al. 2018; Taeihagh 
Lim 2019; Tan  Taeihagh, 2020).
5. Papers in this special issue
The challenges of regulating emerging disruptive technologies highlight the need for regulatory regimes which
feature not just effective corrections to apparent problems but also anticipatory capacities which allow govern-
ments to identify and react appropriately to new challenges. The policy challenges posed by disruptive technolo-
gies thus require a range of regulatory policy tools – both procedural and substantive – to address them. It is the
question of how this has been managed and how governments have dealt with information and uncertainty chal-
lenges in different spheres to which the articles in this special issue are addressed. The articles in the special issue
tackles the issue of evolving disruptive technology regulation through case studies and comparative analyses. They
do so as illustrated in Figure 1.
The articles are categorized under three themes: (i) challenges of regulating emerging disruptive technologies,
(ii) the policy process and disruptive technologies, and (iii) regulatory responses to technological disruptions.
5.1. Theme 1: Challenges of regulating emerging disruptive technologies
This article, “Assessing the Regulatory Challenges of Emerging Disruptive Technologies”, examines technological
disruption as a policy problem and the development of new regulatory regimes. The article revisits the regulatory
life-cycle concept ïŹrst proposed by Bernstein (1955), and offers insights into the evolution of the regulatory
regimes in the context of emerging disruptive technologies. It proposes adaptable responsive regulations as a
promising strategy for responding to emerging technological disruptions.
5.1.1. Spillovers and boundary issues
“Emerging Technologies and Problem DeïŹnition Uncertainty: The Case of Cybersecurity” by Lewallen (2021)
examines how regulatory issues in disruptive technology sectors expand and change as they cross over existing
sectoral boundaries. The article focuses on boundary spanning problems using historical data from the US Con-
gress to examine how regulatory authority has been allocated and re-allocated in the cybersecurity area as its
impact and challenges have come to be better understood.
© 2021 The Authors. Regulation  Governance published by John Wiley  Sons Australia, Ltd.
6
A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies
Figure
1
Summary
of
the
articles
in
this
special
issue
on
the
governance
of
emerging
disruptive
technologies.
© 2021 The Authors. Regulation  Governance published by John Wiley  Sons Australia, Ltd. 7
Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett
5.2. Theme 2. The policy process and disruptive technologies
Following on the discussions about the challenges of regulating emerging disruptive technologies, a set of articles
examine aspects of the policy process and actors’ behavior in the context of emergence of disruptive technologies.
5.2.1. The policy process and the regulation of emerging disruptive technologies
“An analysis of the creation of the General Data Protection Regulation regime” by Goyal et al. (2021) examines
how regulation of disruptive technologies occurs and who is involved in the process. It details the emergence and
nature of the actors involved in regulating disruptive technologies using the multiple streams framework. Draw-
ing insights from the literature on regulation, science and technology studies, the authors posit that new technol-
ogy regulations are adopted when a window of opportunity allows actors to push for changes, the exact nature of
which depends on the dynamics between actors within and across the streams. The model is illustrated by a case
study on the creation of the General Data Protection Regime (GDPR) in the European Union. The ïŹndings cor-
roborate the important roles played by various governmental and non-governmental actors in the adoption of
GDPR, and how crises helped overcome strong resistance from information technology ïŹrms.
5.2.2. The role of epistemic communities
How regulators and policy actors frame regulatory challenges is also the theme and focus of the next article,
“Adaptive Governance for the Internet of Things (IoT): Coping with Emerging Risks” by Brass and Sowell (2021).
The article provides an overview of IoT risks and critically examines the existing regulations in the sector in
terms of their (in)effectiveness as policy responses to the risks of the new technology. The article provides a
framework to assist the framing and regulation of IoT.
5.2.3. The interest group ecology of emerging disruptive technologies
“Emerging Governance for Emerging Technologies: The Case of Cryptocurrencies” by Whitford and Ander-
son (2021) examines integrative regulation and governance logics in the case of cryptocurrencies and explores the
landscape of actors present in the cryptocurrency regulatory space. The article examines the current state of the
regulation for cryptocurrencies and examines the regulatory environment around it, highlighting how self-
governance is a common operating modality in the early stages of regulation of an emerging technology and why
this is the case.
5.3. Theme 3. Regulatory responses to technological disruptions
5.3.1. Regulatory response in face of uncertainty from emerging disruptive technologies
“Uncertainty, Institutions and Regulatory Responses to Emerging Technologies: CRISPR Gene Editing in the US
and the EU (2012–2019)” by Asquer and Krachkovskaya (2021) examines the development of regulatory
responses to the CRISPR gene-editing technology in the EU and USA. It uses the comparison between the two
case studies to demonstrate how path dependencies quickly develop in these sectors but also how they are under-
mined by future development of the technology. It engages the life-cycle theory of regulation to explain the gen-
eral pattern of the regulatory trajectories identiïŹed in these two cases.
“Procedurally-Robust Risk Assessment Framework for novel genetically engineered organisms and gene
drives” by Kuzma (2021) proposes a new Procedurally Robust Risk Assessment Framework (PRRAF) for improv-
ing risk assessments of novel genetically engineered organisms (GEOs) in a variety of institutional, regulatory
and governance contexts. The framework enhances risk assessment protocols for GEOs under high degree of
uncertainty and is applied to the case of a genetically engineered mosquito designed for decreasing disease trans-
mission through killing its wild population. The case study demonstrates that the regulatory approval of this
genetically engineered insect fall short under PPRAF criteria. The article highlights the importance of bolstering
risk analysis methods used by regulatory agencies and technology developers prior to ïŹeld testing.
5.3.2. The challenges of regulatory oversight and supervision
“Regulating human control over autonomous systems” by Firlej and Taeihagh (2021) examines how challenges of
regulatory oversight and supervision can be handled by regulators as technologies change and develop. It exam-
ines the growth and emergence of regulatory frame around the continuing need for “human control” in the con-
text of the increased use of automated and quasi-autonomous systems in these two critical policy domains:
© 2021 The Authors. Regulation  Governance published by John Wiley  Sons Australia, Ltd.
8
A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies
warfare and transportation. The study highlights relevant regulatory gaps and issues in the governance of autono-
mous systems and how retaining human control over them has been identiïŹed as a solution to them. It examines
the conceptualization and operationalization of “human control” and offers a typology of direct and indirect con-
trol using a comparative policy perspective.
5.3.3. The role of policy experiments and regulatory sandboxes
In their article, Philipsen et al. (2021) discuss the use of procedural tools in emerging technology regulation, nota-
bly the use of legal enclaves to test innovative products and the regulatory issues they raise. This procedural tool
aids in the development of regulation by fostering regulatory innovation. The article examines regulatory sand-
boxes from legality, equality, accountability and certainty perspectives and provides guidelines for opening,
granting and post permission phases in their deployment: contributing to the understanding of how regulators
and entrepreneurs can mutually beneïŹt from their interactions.
Acknowledgments
The special issue editors acknowledge the support provided by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy,
National University of Singapore through the TRC grant scheme. The special issue editors would like to thank
the editors of Regulation  Governance and all the anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback and sup-
port for this and other articles in the special issue on Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies.
Data availability statement
Not applicable.
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© 2021 The Authors. Regulation  Governance published by John Wiley  Sons Australia, Ltd. 11
Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett

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Assessing the regulatory challenges of emerging disruptive technologies

  • 1. Assessing the regulatory challenges of emerging disruptive technologies Araz Taeihagh , M Ramesh Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore Michael Howlett Department of Political Science, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada Abstract The past decade has witnessed the emergence of many technologies that have the potential to fundamentally alter our eco- nomic, social, and indeed personal lives. The problems they pose are in many ways unprecedented, posing serious challenges for policymakers. How should governments respond to the challenges given that the technologies are still evolving with unclear trajectories? Are there general principles that can be developed to design governance arrangements for these technolo- gies? These are questions confronting policymakers around the world and it is the objective of this special issue to offer insights into answering them both in general and with respect to speciïŹc emerging disruptive technologies. Our objectives are to help better understand the regulatory challenges posed by disruptive technologies and to develop generalizable propositions for governments’ responses to them. Keywords: disruptive technology, emerging technology, governance, policy, regulation, technological disruption. 1. Introduction How should governments respond to emerging technologies which may fundamentally and quickly change econ- omies and societies? What ought to be the role of the state in managing the adoption of such disruptive technolo- gies? Are there generalizable principles about regulation and the construction of regulatory regimes are available to policy designers as they navigate the challenges posed by these technologies? These are some of the questions that confront regulators and governments across the world on which the existing literature on regulation and governance offers little guidance. It is the objective of this paper to contextualize these questions and offer a framework for conceptualizing and eventually answering them. Recent emerging disruptive technologies – such as autonomous vehicles, autonomous weapon systems, blockchain technology, ride-sharing, genomics, and the Internet of Things (IoT) – have triggered changes that are threatening existing socio-economic systems. The heightened pace of technological innovation poses serious challenges to governments that must cope with the disruptive speed and scope of the transformations occurring in many domains. While these technologies offer opportunities for improvements to economic efïŹciency and quality of life, they also generate many unexpected consequences and pose new forms of risks (Li et al. 2018; Taeihagh & Lim 2019). Government responses to these technologies must consider citizen’s safety, privacy, and security as well as protection of their livelihood and health. However, regulating and governing these technologies is challenging due to high levels of risk and uncertainty associated with them (Li et al. 2020; Tan & Taeihagh, 2020) and that often the beneïŹciaries of these technologies – the investors, producers and users – do not bear the costs of their risks, transferring them instead to the society at large or to governments. Moreover, the “pacing problem” or the lag between the state’s regulatory agencies (often slow) responses to challenges of these technolo- gies further exacerbate the situation (Marchant 2011). Correspondence: Araz Taeihagh, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 469B Bukit Timah Road, Li Ka Shing Building, Level 2, #02-10, Singapore 259771. Email: spparaz@nus.edu.sg, araz.taeihagh@new.oxon.org ConïŹ‚icts of interest: The authors declare that they have no conïŹ‚icts of interest to report. Accepted for publication 13 February 2021. © 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Regulation & Governance (2021) doi:10.1111/rego.12392
  • 2. In the next section, we conceptualize what it is that makes disruptive technologies a challenging policy prob- lem. Here we abstract away from speciïŹc technologies and focus on the challenges these developments pose to existing arrangements and actors. In the following section we show the asynchronous use of substantive and pro- cedural policy tools used by regulators. Further, effectively deploying an asynchronous mix of tools requires investments in anticipatory policy capacities of regulatory agencies and not just consideration of, for example, the economic consequences of tighter licensing or privacy laws (Howlett et al. 2018). We conclude with a summary of the articles that are part of this special issue and brieïŹ‚y highlight their contribution to this analysis and under- standing of the challenges to existing regulation and governance caused by speciïŹc emerging disruptive technologies. In advancing these arguments, this introductory article brings together two disparate bodies of scholarship: Bernstein’s (1955) life-cycle analogy of regulatory development and the “new” design orientation in the contem- porary policy sciences to highlight the speciïŹc nature of the different kinds of tools that can be used to address contemporary policy challenges. It argues the regulatory challenge facing disruptive technologies centers on how to develop a portfolio of substantive and procedural tools in an asynchronous fashion initially; correcting past problems while developing anticipatory capacities through the early stages of the regulatory life cycle. 2. Technological disruption as a policy problem What is it about emerging technologies that makes them a policy “problem” that needs to be tackled? How and why does “disruption” demand a government regulatory response rather than some other? In answering these technological innovations it is important to understand the difïŹculties they pose to existing arrangements and the unique issues and challenges they raise concerning social and economic relationships in society. 2.1. Asymmetries in information One problem posed by emerging disruptive technologies which poses problems for their dissemination and control is directly linked to their hi-tech nature and the limited knowledge that most social actors have con- cerning how it works and why, and what are the possible applications and consequences of its deployment. That is, in policy terms, the policy environment with respect to emerging technologies is characterized by asymmetries in information across agents and at multiple levels of society and government. As Becker and Brownson (1964) and others have pointed out, even when knowledge is already available on a technological subject, policymakers may not be aware of it and thus undertake decisionmaking in a situation of uninformed ignorance. Similar to the situation that exists in other complex sectors such as healthcare, there are gaps in the informa- tion possessed by different actors in the sector which advantage some actors over others, making equal exchange problematic (Bali & Ramesh 2015). Just as healthcare providers enjoy innate advantages over users and insurers, technologists and entrepreneurs enjoy knowledge advantage vis-Ă -vis regulators and consumers. Indeed, techni- cians enjoy an advantage vis-Ă -vis their business partners with respect to the potential and limitations of the tech- nology in question. There are also asymmetries between investors, companies, and consumers and regulators who do not have complete information on what next steps are possible, feasible or likely, or how a given technology can or may be scaled up, or what is the ultimate goal of the agent introducing a “technology.” This is relevant as technologies are continually scaled and improved through an iterative process, and are unlike other services that government must regulate which tend to be relatively discrete products or services. All of these problems are exacerbated in the case of new technologies which serve as platforms – such as social media or the internet itself – for additional systems and functionalities often not imagined at the outset of their deployment. 2.2. Policy uncertainty More fundamentally, policy design and regulatory action in these sectors takes place in an environment of great uncertainty (Walker et al. 2013). As Stirling (2010) noted, different kinds of uncertainty exist and not all situa- tions of knowledge and ignorance demand the same policy response. Parameter and associated “fuzzy” © 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. 2 A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies
  • 3. uncertainty are of course common in routine policymaking. Thus, policymakers routinely make decisions on, for example, interest rates without knowing the actual unemployment rate at the time (Schrader et al. 1993; Walker et al. 2013). Even when causal relationships and future scenarios are relatively well known, there is always some uncertainty with respect to policy predictions due to data and statistical limitations (Morgan & Henrion 1990; Manski 2013). In the case of emerging disruptive technologies, however, uncertainty is much more profound and pervasive. Governments are typically not entirely aware of the nature of the policy problem they are trying to address and are unsure of what a regulatory solution might look like. Thus, for example, it took some time for bike-share reg- ulators to realize the signiïŹcant problems caused by bike abandonment and the difïŹculties in curbing the behav- ior through regulations. Their experience in regulating abandonment of motor vehicles was of little practical relevance to shared bikes. This lack of awareness, let alone understanding, of the speciïŹc challenges of disruptive new technologies pose a major problem for regulators. Decision makers aware of these gaps may function with an attitude of prudent awareness and deploy proce- dural policy tools to gather information and continually monitor and learn from experience. However, they may act with a hubristic attitude or overconïŹdence when they are unaware of their ignorance which may exacerbate existing problems (Becker & Brownson 1964). 2.3. Structural power dynamics In addition to the challenges posed by uncertainty and information asymmetries, technological disruptions also affect different members of society differently. Some sectors of society may beneïŹt from the deployment of emerging technologies and the disruptions they involve while others lose out. And disputes between winners (such as technology entrepreneurs and venture capitalists) and losers (such as employees of disrupted industries) or those positively or negatively impacted can be deep, widespread, abstruse. Thus, for example, the proliferation of the sharing economy and IT platforms such as Uber, TaskRabbit, and Amazon Mechanical Turk have brought to the fore regulatory issues such as: whether workers on these platforms are independent contractors or employees, whether maximum work hours per day and minimum pay thus applies to these workers, or whether these platforms can have exclusivity clauses that tie workers to them (Taeihagh 2017). If workers are categorized as employees, they may be subject to regulatory requirements around contributions to social security programs, unemployment insurance, and other statutory requirements that do not apply to self-employed contractors. The Fair Work Commission in Australia recently ruled that Uber drivers were independent contractors and not employees as per the Employment Act in Australia. However, the Unem- ployment Insurance Appeal Board of the State of New York in a similar case ruled to the contrary and made Uber liable for contributing to unemployment insurance. 2.4. Errors in design of interventions and policy responses Regulators must negotiate and balance the economic interests of agents that drive these innovations with those of citizens and members of societies that are affected by the outcomes of these innovations. But in approving “new” technologies or regulating a technology, or deciding whether the state should intervene, regulators are often faced with a trade-off between reducing possible type 1 and type 2 errors – that is overregulating benign technologies or under-regulating those that are difïŹcult to regulate (Waring et al. 2020). If we accept the null hypothesis that disruptive technologies are harmful to citizens, two common trajecto- ries may be expected. The ïŹrst is that the government does not intervene or immediately approves the deploy- ment of a new technology but remains ready to react when inevitable problems emerge. The second is that the government intervenes aggressively, establishes safeguards, but delays the deployment of the technology. Type 1 overreaction errors aim to protect the society at large before all the ramiïŹcations of technological deployment are clear or type 2 errors protects the economic interests of the innovators in the ïŹrst instance, but may cause damage to society at large. Constant monitoring, data collection, and dissemination are vital under both scenarios. © 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. 3 Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett
  • 4. 3. Regulatory responses to disruptive technologies Addressing the challenges that disruptive technologies pose requires application of a range of policy tools to shape policy targets, establish governance relationships and norms within the sector. This involves carefully assembling a combination of “substantive” and “procedural” tools in a policy “mix” or “portfolio” or “package” (Chapman 2003; Hennicke 2004; Taeihagh et al. 2013; Howlett et al. 2015). Thus, for example, companies that offer ride-sharing are subject to a combination of many substantive regulatory tools such as licenses and stan- dards, as well as procedural tools such as structured market competition and stakeholder consultations (Li et al. 2018, 2020). There is, however, an overarching preference to rely on regulatory tools to contain the risks posed by technol- ogies. Regulation may be usefully deïŹned as “a process or activity in which government requires or proscribes certain activities or behavior on the part of individuals and institutions, mostly private but sometimes public, and does so through a continuing administrative process
” (Reagan 1987, p. 17). In this view, regulation is largely a substantive tool – a requirement or prescription – targeted at speciïŹc groups with the intention of changing their behavior to align with the government’s objectives. However, the deïŹnition also has a procedural component in the sense that the measures need to be administered through continuing administrative processes. In addition, organizational and ïŹscal tools are often used to reinforce the regulation in question. Thus, regulations are a “mix” of substantive and procedural components rather than a single discrete policy tool (Krebs 2004; Rosenbloom 2007; Leonardi 2010). These regulatory mixes exist as sectoral “regimes”, that is, enabling legislation and standards established over time on a sectoral or issue-by-issue basis such as by industry in the case of automotive fuel standard or by- product or process, such as a ban on toxic chemicals (Hood et al. 1999). In either case, according to Eisner (1994), the application of the term “regime” to regulatory activity is intended to convey the same sense that it carries in international relations theory: “implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decisionmaking procedures around which actors’ expectations converge in a given area” (Krasner 1982, p. 186). A regulatory regime is thus an institutionalized (though not necessarily codiïŹed) instrument mix which contains a set of behaviors and expectations on the part of regulators and regulated in which both sets of actors understand the procedural and substantive rules which affect them and agree to abide by them, albeit often not entirely willingly. Regulation may come directly from government or its designated government agencies or independent com- missions, but may also originate in private trade associations or even international organizations (Lilly & Knepper 1993). Moreover, regulations may take many forms, from command and control regulation to self- regulation (Howlett 2019) which may appear different but share many similarities. There are also voluntary regu- latory regimes with no legally binding rules (Whitford & Tucker 2012), regimes with activist government regula- tors eager to create new rules (Bamberger & Mulligan 2011), and regimes in which the targeted industry beneïŹts from a captured regulator (Croucher 2011). Which if any of these modes is appropriate in the case of emerging disruptive technologies and how they should be implemented remain open questions. Disruptive technologies, although all “recent”, are at various stages of regulatory development and govern- ments have understandably responded to them with different strategies at different speed, from no response to prevention, precaution, traditional control, toleration, and adaptation (Li et al. 2018, 2020; Taeihagh & Lim 2019). Although there is considerable variation within and across different sectors, there is also a common trajectory for the evolution of regulatory regimes which is as relevant to emerging technologies as their mature counterparts. The origin and evolution of regulations entail vital implications for emerging regulation in general and regula- tion of emerging disruptive technologies in particular. First, for example, it implies that different high-technology sectors can be expected to be at different stages of regime development depending on the length of time since the beginning of the cycle and the nature of the crises and responses which have occurred in each case. Moreover, even in the same sector, there may not be uniformity in progression in regulatory stages and developments if multiple new technologies are deployed simultaneously, as with the case of the IoT or autonomous vehicles. Hence, for example, regulation of autonomous vehicles may be at very different stages concerning aspects related to privacy and cybersecurity and those linked to safety and liability issues (Lim & Taeihagh 2018; Taeihagh & Lim 2019). As a result, when viewing a regulatory regime in a large umbrella category such as “hi-tech”, one © 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. 4 A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies
  • 5. should not expect to see a uniform set of practices and processes but rather a pattern of laggards and leaders as each issue area moves through its own standard-setting process. A second signiïŹcant characteristic of efforts to regulate emerging technologies is asynchronous application of different types of regulatory tools. That is, regulation involves both substantive and procedural policy tools. The former relative to substantive requirements and prohibitions, backed by rewards and punishment, while latter includes participatory decision processes designed to produce better substantive decisions for the future (Howlett 2000). While the substantive tools are “in the now”, in the sense that the level and type of regulation relates directly to resolving problems which occurred in past phases, the procedural tools are more anticipatory and are typically geared towards the future. The latter are intended to anticipate the next crisis and the kinds of substantive tools that would be needed to deal with it. Thus, for example, current inquiries about the challenges posed by Autono- mous Vehicles portend the development of remedial substantive tools to deal with cybersecurity issues prior to need for their adoption (Lim & Taeihagh 2018) while the actual regulations in place deal mainly with health and safety challenges and liabilities which featured prominently in earlier eras. This asynchonicity between procedural and substantive tools remains the case until the regime matures and stabilizes as new problems diminish, all- owing both kinds of tools to synchronize. 4. Application of regulatory life cycle theory to disruptive technologies While regulations have been the subject of intense study for decades, much of the existing research concentrates on answering basic questions such as whether or not regulation should be deployed in the ïŹrst place (e.g. Demsetz 1968) or examining the mature stages of a regulatory body in which the regulators have been “cap- tured” by the industry they regulate (e.g. Bernauer 2003; Dal Bo 2006; Carpenter 2010). Less attention has been paid to the other stages of a regulatory regime, including the processes through which regulatory standards develop in speciïŹc issue area. This has not always been the case, however, as some of the earliest works on regula- tion did adopt a temporal perspective which can be usefully deployed to examine the case of disruptive technolo- gies. In his pathbreaking 1955 work, Regulating Business by Independent Commission, for example, Marver Bernstein noted the signiïŹcance of time in the process of regulatory development and suggested that regulatory agencies tend to follow a set pattern of evolution or lifecycle, one which roughly parallels a human life (Bernstein 1955). The history of regulatory activity with respect to new technologies – from food and drug administration to automobile safety standards – reveals a typical life-cycle process through which standards emerge and become institutionalized in a mature regulatory regime (Bernstein 1955; Howlett & Newman 2013). As pointed by Bern- stein (1955) over a half century ago, in general, evolution of regulations may be viewed as analogous to a genea- logical process through which a regime moves from creation to death, with recognizable stages and punctuations along the way. In this work, Bernstein postulated that regulatory regimes go through four distinct phases: gestation, in which a public problem is ïŹrst perceived by its relevant stakeholders, and organized advocacy for a solution begins; youth, in which an activist, autonomous, regulatory body struggles to deïŹne its powers and jurisdiction amid legal opposition from industry groups. Next, regulations reach maturity, where a stable regime emerges whose powers and duties are agreed upon by all sides and in which the autonomous regulatory body acts mechanically as a tri- bunal of the regime. Finally they reach old age, when an industry has fully captured the regime and the regulatory body’s main role is to ïŹght to retain the status quo. Each stage in this regime life-cycle is linked to the often very slow process of the development of what ultimately emerges as a set of court-supported standards administered by government agencies and maintained over a long period of time. Movement through these stages is not auto- matic but rather crisis-driven. That is, in general, movement stalls at one stage unless there is some crisis highlighting its inadequacy, ratcheting up the regulatory spiral (Howlett & Newman 2013). Without a crisis, the existing regime is likely to remain in place unaltered. Over the 65 years since Bernstein’s work ïŹrst appeared, some stages of the regulatory regime lifecycle have been well-explored, while others have remained under-explored. The moment of regulatory birth, for example, has been examined in studies focusing on the question of whose interests were served by the creation of a © 2021 The Authors. Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. 5 Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett
  • 6. particular regime (Stigler 1971, 1975). Similarly, the maturity stage has been examined by scholars of issues such as regulatory capture and by students of administrative law examining the role of the judiciary in regulatory review (e.g. May & Winter 1999; McGarity 2001). The stages of regulatory decline have also been analyzed in works focusing on policy termination (Bardach 1976; DeLeon 1983; Lewis 2002) or de-regulation (Derthick & Quirk 1985; Collier 1998; Lazer & Mayer-Schonberger 2002). However, the stages between what Bernstein termed “gestation” and “maturity” – or what he called the “youth” phase of regulatory regime development – remain very much underexplored. This is a critical period, however, one in which the agencies and rules which go on to comprise an often very long-lasting mature regime are created and put into place. We argue that understanding regulatory processes for emerging novel technologies require an understanding of the forces and processes at work in these early stages of regime development. The recent wave of disruptive technologies have been affected by the development of various decision tech- nologies such as Crowdsourcing and Big Data Analytics (Prpi c et al. 2015; Athey 2017; Taeihagh 2017b) that cre- ate both new problems and opportunities for governments. For instance, policy responses to the Covid-19 pandemic have ranged from the use of established technologies such as GPS to improve quarantine enforcement; introducing mobile applications that use Bluetooth to measure propinquity and improve contact-tracing; to more sophisticated technologies that use a combination of mobile-phone-tower data and machine learning to develop social graphs. The latter can measure the propensity and frequency with which people meet or pass through a certain location (The Economist 2020). While these technologies inform and aid policy implementation and the decisionmaking practices, they also give rise to a series of concerns around privacy and civil liberties. Given their disruptive nature, novel technologies inevitably draw government attention and generate pressures to contain their adverse effects. This can already be seen developing in areas such as data protection, privacy, ride-sharing, autonomous vehicles, healthcare and a variety of other sectors (Bygrave 2010; Li et al. 2018; Taeihagh Lim 2019; Tan Taeihagh, 2020). 5. Papers in this special issue The challenges of regulating emerging disruptive technologies highlight the need for regulatory regimes which feature not just effective corrections to apparent problems but also anticipatory capacities which allow govern- ments to identify and react appropriately to new challenges. The policy challenges posed by disruptive technolo- gies thus require a range of regulatory policy tools – both procedural and substantive – to address them. It is the question of how this has been managed and how governments have dealt with information and uncertainty chal- lenges in different spheres to which the articles in this special issue are addressed. The articles in the special issue tackles the issue of evolving disruptive technology regulation through case studies and comparative analyses. They do so as illustrated in Figure 1. The articles are categorized under three themes: (i) challenges of regulating emerging disruptive technologies, (ii) the policy process and disruptive technologies, and (iii) regulatory responses to technological disruptions. 5.1. Theme 1: Challenges of regulating emerging disruptive technologies This article, “Assessing the Regulatory Challenges of Emerging Disruptive Technologies”, examines technological disruption as a policy problem and the development of new regulatory regimes. The article revisits the regulatory life-cycle concept ïŹrst proposed by Bernstein (1955), and offers insights into the evolution of the regulatory regimes in the context of emerging disruptive technologies. It proposes adaptable responsive regulations as a promising strategy for responding to emerging technological disruptions. 5.1.1. Spillovers and boundary issues “Emerging Technologies and Problem DeïŹnition Uncertainty: The Case of Cybersecurity” by Lewallen (2021) examines how regulatory issues in disruptive technology sectors expand and change as they cross over existing sectoral boundaries. The article focuses on boundary spanning problems using historical data from the US Con- gress to examine how regulatory authority has been allocated and re-allocated in the cybersecurity area as its impact and challenges have come to be better understood. © 2021 The Authors. Regulation Governance published by John Wiley Sons Australia, Ltd. 6 A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies
  • 7. Figure 1 Summary of the articles in this special issue on the governance of emerging disruptive technologies. © 2021 The Authors. Regulation Governance published by John Wiley Sons Australia, Ltd. 7 Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett
  • 8. 5.2. Theme 2. The policy process and disruptive technologies Following on the discussions about the challenges of regulating emerging disruptive technologies, a set of articles examine aspects of the policy process and actors’ behavior in the context of emergence of disruptive technologies. 5.2.1. The policy process and the regulation of emerging disruptive technologies “An analysis of the creation of the General Data Protection Regulation regime” by Goyal et al. (2021) examines how regulation of disruptive technologies occurs and who is involved in the process. It details the emergence and nature of the actors involved in regulating disruptive technologies using the multiple streams framework. Draw- ing insights from the literature on regulation, science and technology studies, the authors posit that new technol- ogy regulations are adopted when a window of opportunity allows actors to push for changes, the exact nature of which depends on the dynamics between actors within and across the streams. The model is illustrated by a case study on the creation of the General Data Protection Regime (GDPR) in the European Union. The ïŹndings cor- roborate the important roles played by various governmental and non-governmental actors in the adoption of GDPR, and how crises helped overcome strong resistance from information technology ïŹrms. 5.2.2. The role of epistemic communities How regulators and policy actors frame regulatory challenges is also the theme and focus of the next article, “Adaptive Governance for the Internet of Things (IoT): Coping with Emerging Risks” by Brass and Sowell (2021). The article provides an overview of IoT risks and critically examines the existing regulations in the sector in terms of their (in)effectiveness as policy responses to the risks of the new technology. The article provides a framework to assist the framing and regulation of IoT. 5.2.3. The interest group ecology of emerging disruptive technologies “Emerging Governance for Emerging Technologies: The Case of Cryptocurrencies” by Whitford and Ander- son (2021) examines integrative regulation and governance logics in the case of cryptocurrencies and explores the landscape of actors present in the cryptocurrency regulatory space. The article examines the current state of the regulation for cryptocurrencies and examines the regulatory environment around it, highlighting how self- governance is a common operating modality in the early stages of regulation of an emerging technology and why this is the case. 5.3. Theme 3. Regulatory responses to technological disruptions 5.3.1. Regulatory response in face of uncertainty from emerging disruptive technologies “Uncertainty, Institutions and Regulatory Responses to Emerging Technologies: CRISPR Gene Editing in the US and the EU (2012–2019)” by Asquer and Krachkovskaya (2021) examines the development of regulatory responses to the CRISPR gene-editing technology in the EU and USA. It uses the comparison between the two case studies to demonstrate how path dependencies quickly develop in these sectors but also how they are under- mined by future development of the technology. It engages the life-cycle theory of regulation to explain the gen- eral pattern of the regulatory trajectories identiïŹed in these two cases. “Procedurally-Robust Risk Assessment Framework for novel genetically engineered organisms and gene drives” by Kuzma (2021) proposes a new Procedurally Robust Risk Assessment Framework (PRRAF) for improv- ing risk assessments of novel genetically engineered organisms (GEOs) in a variety of institutional, regulatory and governance contexts. The framework enhances risk assessment protocols for GEOs under high degree of uncertainty and is applied to the case of a genetically engineered mosquito designed for decreasing disease trans- mission through killing its wild population. The case study demonstrates that the regulatory approval of this genetically engineered insect fall short under PPRAF criteria. The article highlights the importance of bolstering risk analysis methods used by regulatory agencies and technology developers prior to ïŹeld testing. 5.3.2. The challenges of regulatory oversight and supervision “Regulating human control over autonomous systems” by Firlej and Taeihagh (2021) examines how challenges of regulatory oversight and supervision can be handled by regulators as technologies change and develop. It exam- ines the growth and emergence of regulatory frame around the continuing need for “human control” in the con- text of the increased use of automated and quasi-autonomous systems in these two critical policy domains: © 2021 The Authors. Regulation Governance published by John Wiley Sons Australia, Ltd. 8 A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies
  • 9. warfare and transportation. The study highlights relevant regulatory gaps and issues in the governance of autono- mous systems and how retaining human control over them has been identiïŹed as a solution to them. It examines the conceptualization and operationalization of “human control” and offers a typology of direct and indirect con- trol using a comparative policy perspective. 5.3.3. The role of policy experiments and regulatory sandboxes In their article, Philipsen et al. (2021) discuss the use of procedural tools in emerging technology regulation, nota- bly the use of legal enclaves to test innovative products and the regulatory issues they raise. This procedural tool aids in the development of regulation by fostering regulatory innovation. The article examines regulatory sand- boxes from legality, equality, accountability and certainty perspectives and provides guidelines for opening, granting and post permission phases in their deployment: contributing to the understanding of how regulators and entrepreneurs can mutually beneïŹt from their interactions. Acknowledgments The special issue editors acknowledge the support provided by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore through the TRC grant scheme. The special issue editors would like to thank the editors of Regulation Governance and all the anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback and sup- port for this and other articles in the special issue on Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies. Data availability statement Not applicable. References Asquer A, Krachkovskaya I (2021) Uncertainty, Institutions and Regulatory Responses to Emerging Technologies: CRISPR Gene Editing in the US and the EU (2012–2019). Regulation and Governance xxx, xxx–xxx. Athey S (2017) Beyond Prediction: Using Big Data for Policy Problems. Science 355(6324), 483–485. Bali AS, Ramesh M (2015) Healthcare Reforms in India: Getting It Wrong. Public Policy Administration 30(3–4), 300–319. Bamberger KA, Mulligan DK (2011) Privacy on the Books and on the Ground. Stanford Law Review 63, 247–316. Bardach E (1976) Policy Termination as a Political Process. Policy Sciences 7(2), 123–131. Becker SW, Brownson FO (1964) What Price Ambiguity? Or the Role of Ambiguity in Decision-Making. Journal of Political Economy 72(1), 62–73. Bernauer T (2003) Genes, Trade and Regulation: The Seeds of ConïŹ‚ict in Food Biotechnology. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Bernstein MH (1955) Regulating Business by Independent Commission. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Brass I, Sowell JH (2021) Adaptive Governance for the Internet of Things: Coping with Emerging Security Risks. Regulation and Governance xxx, xxx–xxx. Bygrave LA (2010) Privacy and Data Protection in an International Perspective. Scandinavian Studies in Law 56(8), 165–200. Carpenter D (2010) Reputation and Power: Organizational Image and Pharmaceutical Regulation at the FDA, 1st edn. Prince- ton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Chapman R (2003) A Policy Mix for Environmentally Sustainable Development – Learning from the Dutch Experience. New Zealand Journal of Environmental Law 7(1), 29–51. Collier U (1998) Deregulation in the European Union: Environmental Perspectives. Routledge, London. Croucher M (2011) Are Energy EfïŹciency Standards within the Electricity Sector a Form of Regulatory Capture? Energy Policy 39, 3602–3604. Dal Bo E (2006) Regulatory Capture: A Review. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 22(2), 203–225. DeLeon P (1983) Policy Evaluation and Program Termination. Review of Policy Research 2(4), 631–647. Demsetz H (1968) Why Regulate Utilities? Journal of Law and Economics 11(1), 55–65. Derthick M, Quirk PJ (1985) The Politics of Deregulation. Brookings Institute, Washington, DC. Eisner MA (1994) Discovering Patterns in Regulatory History: Continuity, Change and Regulatory Regimes. Journal of Policy History 6(2), 157–187. Firlej M, Taeihagh A (2021) Regulating Human Control over Autonomous Systems. Regulation and Governance xxx, xxx–xxx. Goyal N, Howlett M, Taeihagh A (2021) Why and How Does the Regulation of Emerging Technologies Occur? Explaining the Adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation Using the Multiple Streams Framework. Regulation and Gover- nance xxx, xxx–xxx. © 2021 The Authors. Regulation Governance published by John Wiley Sons Australia, Ltd. 9 Regulating Emerging Disruptive Technologies A. Taeihagh, M. Ramesh, and M. Howlett
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