1. Umair Ahmed
Umair Abbas
Shahid Anwar
Ali Mardan
Muneeb Ahsan
University of Central punjab
Introduction
According to the Marshall principle of the economics, economist have been trained to believe that
market competition maximize the welfare of the consumer in here us monopoly and market power
create economic result that market produces better off; some economists try to apply this notion
on political market and technique which is used is benchmark to evaluate the performance of
political equilibrium. The benchmarking which we make cover weakness are meet threats with
this techniques. The little activities is conducting in Italy city the people gives the right to those
the policy of the market and work under their choices but the policy didn’t works. The people
didn’t measure exact benchmarking and data to work properly.
Concern with the mass poverty of the different countries make a theoretical and empirica l
literature. Our mean purpose is to measure the political instability impact on economic growth and
dictatorship is the main key element of poverty the money is not revolves and the poor people
2. didn’t get the job and money is not rotate. Political instability reduces the investment in which it
is a primary engine of growth. In our theoretical from work the political instability and dictation
regimes. We believes that traditional political instability measures the capture things in addition
to such transaction are too broad in scope may be subjective to measurement errors. The democracy
with high degree of inequality the government has to meet huge demands of the majority of
redistribution from the rich to the poor. In this result the people who belongs to poor level remains
poor and elite goes high and high. When inequality is high then redistribution policies made by
the dictator is not enough to meet the revolution. In our theoretical frame work the three main
purpose of our study the first one is inequality is the key explanatory variables and democracy is
effected directly to accounts for fluctuation for country and we make a alternative link between
political instability and economic growth and development.
If a country had suffered tremendous economic and human losses due to political instabilit y
political divisions, civil wars, poor country, weak and underdeveloped. The economic benefits of
political stability can hardly be overstated by a casual, reading of the news many reasons to worry
about Inflation and unemployment are on the rise. Political instability as a rising power and the
largest emerging economy, many challenges or threats from an increasingly. Analysts have
focused on political stability for many years political stability was an issue because there had not
been much of it. One can carefully and consciously identify major social and economic problems
that would threaten political stability or point to serious institutional weaknesses. Bold predictions
about future are likely to turn out to be not true, studying, assessing and understanding politica l
stability.
The tax and economic growth has been major area of research can affect the political stability and
shadow economy. The present study attempted to analyze how the PS and economic growth affects
3. the taxes, Government Effectiveness, Freedom of Corruption, Macroeconomic control variables.
Which neglects the extreme relationship between variables with the help of quintile regression fit
a regression line through the conditional quintiles of a distribution. Application of quintile
regression one can examine the relationship between a set of independent variables & distribut ion
of the dependent variable. Regression technique also overcomes some of the disadvantages of the
conditional mean framework. The use of quintile regression approach is chosen also because of
skewed distribution of GDP and PS since in such case the usual assumption of normally distributed
error terms is not warranted variability in these variables is even higher for high-GDP and
politically unstable countries. , identifies many taxation determinants:
The levels of economic development and GDP per capita tax reform by using cross-sectional data
for 79 countries. Applying panel data analysis on a large sample of OECD countries for the period
1965–1995, investigated the relationship between tax structure and political climate. Found that
the efficiency of tax collection is affected by the greater polarization and political instability. the
reduced political stability determines a low efficiency of tax collection. a rise in the level of
political instability generate decrease in the level of resources (i.e., taxes) available to next
period’s. He concluded that an explaining factor for low taxation in Argentina is politica l
instability.
In Adam Smith Wealth of Nations. Recent growth theories have brought back into focus the
significant role played by two factors ( which were central to even with classic analysis) scale
economics and sill formation the contrasting development experiences of countries like
fundamental questions about the determinants of economic growth and about the effectiveness of
economic growth in improving the quality of life also the relative roles of institutions and interest
groups in policy for-mulation and implementation has assumed critical importance in view of the
4. contrasting development experiences of these countries. The present paper attempts to analyze
these issues by mainly drawing upon the development experience of India. This analysis is also
important for charting the future directions of reforms in India. The objectives of the present study
are to Examine the link between economic growth and quality of life. understand the relative roles
of political institutions and interest groups in policy making drawing a broad framework of
analysis opportunities are normally provided by our economic growth while development of
capabilities needs positive action mainly by the state. In our analysis, we focus mainly on the
instrumental value of capabilities as a means to achieving ends like economics growth, leaving out
the aspects of their intrinsic importance as ends in themselves, which is essentially a philosophica l
issue.
Literature Review
(Naguib & Smucker, 2009) In this article relate to when Economic Growth Rhymes with Social
Development and it’s depend upon national development and its good positive result is expansion
of human freedom to live the kind of lives that people have reason to value"
(Overland, Simons, & Spagat, 2005) This article refers to Political instability and growth in
dictatorships and it’s depend upon dictatorship because its positive image assumption about the
relationship between the capital stock and political stability has good empirical grounding.
(Chu, 2009) In this Article Effects of political competition on economic growth it’s depend upon
economic growth it is a positive relation conditions under which economic growth is higher under
political fragmentation than under political unification.
5. (Bar-El, 2008) This article relates to Dictators, development, and the virtue of political instabilit y
and depends upon political stability and its negative impact. This model also show that threats on
the political stability of a doctorial regime may be advantages to the population.
(Padovano & Ricciuti, 2008) This article refers to Political competition and economic performance
it’s also depend upon economic performances and they will conclude the positive result in
economic performance predictions of the theoretical literature on the political competition
economic performance.
(Zubair, 2014) The Good Governance of Any country will effect there economic Growth. In this
Article they use regression analysis Model to conclude that out of the four dimensions of good
governance, political stability contributes highly towards economic growth. This will fall between
1981 to 2014.
(Brunetti, 1995) This Article indicate that the Political Instability will affect the Democracy of that
country. The investment climate model is used to conclude that our own efforts have been directed
at taking a further step in this direction by not relying on expert opinions but by systematica l ly
asking the concerned entrepreneurs about their expectation of policy surprises.
(Ahmad & Zaman, 2011) This article refers to economic growth depend upon the parameterizes
the dynamic behavior of a country. They will use global business research model to conclude that
The present study investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption per capita
and real per capita income and total primary energy consumption and real per capital income in
Pakistan. This will fall in between 1981 to 2011.
6. (Soh, 1988) Political Instability will affect the economic fluctuations of a country. There they will
use Gross National Product Model to conclude result that dependent upon the created political data
set. Future research must evolve around obtaining and analyzing more objective political data.
(Sekhar, 2005) This Article refers that social Development effect Economic Growth. They will
conclude that the state can provide the enabling environment and produce desired results through
a judicious mix of market-excluding and market-complementing interventions depending on
whether the type of error by the market is a commission or an omission.
(Dutt & We, 2008) Economic Growth always depend upon the Political stability of a country. Here
they use Regressed on inequality model to conclude that strong evidence of a channel that starts
from inequality which then affects political instability which in turn affects policy volatility and
then output volatility. This will fall in between period 1996 to 2008.
(Kisangani, 2006) Here Democracy is independent that will affect the depend variable Economic
Growth. Here they apply Endogenous Model to conclude that the results from co-integration and
VECMs suggest that in ignoring countries' particularities, previous studies have missed both the
existence and the absence of the low-frequency information between economic performance and
democracy. This will fall in between year 1881 to 2006.
(Ali, 2001) This Article indicate the effect of independent variable on dependent variable. Here
Political instability effect the economic growth of a country. They use regression model to
conclude that The results show that policy instability has a more dramatic and significant impact
on growth than political instability.
(Januky, 2013) Article related to how a Democracy effect on the Economic Growth of a country.
The Regression Techniques Model is used to get main idea. The results, free and fair elections and
7. a reliable democratic system are important ingredients to ensure not only peace and politica l
stability but also part and parcel of a sound and smooth running economy.
(Tiwari, 2013) Political instability of a country will change the Economic Growth of a country.
Here he will use PS and GE model to conclude that the marginal effects of PS, GE, GDP, and FC
for all percentage points of the quintiles in the Tax distribution can not just be consider the
relationship between Tax and PS, GE, GDP, and FC in the conditional mean model.
(Zheng, 2012) Here in this article he will use Economic as a dependent variable who depend upon
the independent variable Political stability. They will conclude that the China is ranked better than
average on four instability/fragility.
(Panzera & Postiglione, 2014) This Article show how Structural instability effect the economic
Growth of a country. They will apply specification model to conclude the result that the
composition of the derived clusters, the obtained results are not completely consistent with the
theories highlighting the north–south dualism. The presence of different growth paths among
Italian provinces has been derived in previous empirical contributions. This will fall in between
the time span of 1988 to 2014.
(Libman, 2012) Sub-National Political System will cause a change in Economic Growth of a
country. They will apply Regressions model to conclude that the results hold after excluding the
regions with a very large share of bureaucracy in the population, one can conclude that even a
small bureaucracy can be harmful for growth even during a generally favorable economic
environment.
(Pose & Tselios, 2010) Here they will apply Time Invariant Control Model by using education
inequality as independent variable and economic growth as dependent variable to conclude that
8. our results indicate that both income and educational inequality matter for regional growth. This
will fall between time span of 1990 to 2010.
(Eayissa & Nsiah, 2010) In this article they will show the effect of Economic Growth on Workers
Remittances. They will use Random Effect model to conclude that The main goal of this study is
to investigate the effect of remittances relative to the other extreme sources of capital such as
foreign aid and foreign direct investment on the economic growth and development.
(Fosu, 2012) This article refer to show the impact of Political Instability on Economic Growth.
They will apply Appended Error model to conclude that successful coups and coup plots appeared
to be non-monotonic: negative generally but positive at very low levels of investment.
(Haan, 2007) The Political institutions depend on economic growth and model of specification &
result of the article to be a more promising approach of analyzing the relationship between politica l
institutions.
(Lalvani, 2003) The Political instability depend on the growth and fiscal health of the Indian
economy& model Politico-economic& now the result of article suggest that a constitutional
amendment should be introduced in favor of fixed electoral terms.
(Alesina & Ozler, 1996) The Political Instability and Economic Growth& article result of this
paper is that in countries and time periods with a high propensity of government collapse, growt h
is significantly lower.
(Fatima & Waheed, 2011) The Fiscal policy depend on the Uncertainty on Investment and model
(GARCH)& result of the article high investment and sustainable economic growth in the country.
9. (Polacheka & Sevastianova, 2012) The international conflict depend on empirical economic
growth& result of the article using the alternative specification testing Model confirmed that Asian
Tigers, African, and poor countries experience large negative effects of wars, while high- income
countries and democracies, mostly face growth-reducing effects from international wars.
(Gudaro, Chhapra, & Sheikh, 2010) this Article refers to the effect of foreign direct investment on
Gross domestic product of a country. They will use Regression model to conclude that positive
and significant association of GDP and FDI while a negative and significant relationship found
between GDP and inflation. This will be fall between 1981 to 2010.
(Zheng, China’s Political Stability, 2011) In this theoretical work show that the stability of a
country effect the Economic Growth by using Regression model they will conclude that our study
has shown that China is ranked better than average on four instability/fragility
Steps for Theoretical Frame Work
Step – 1 Inventory Variables
Independent Variable :-
Political Instability
Dependent Variable :-
Economic Growth
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Gross National Product(GNP)
Standard of Living
10. Step – 2 Directions
Change in Political Instability Change in Gross Domestic Product
Change in Gross National Product
Change in Standards of Living
Change in Economic Growth
Step – 3 Logics
Logic – 1
When a country did not have stability in his political environment in a country. then they
did not boost up his economic growth according to there willing.
Logic – 2
Whenever there is instability in political environment of a country. It will effect directly
towards stock market of that country which result in stop running project of that country. Investors
are not willing to invest there in such instable environment.
Logic – 3
During the period of instability of political environment of a country. The standard of living
of people is poor. That’s indicating that the growth of the country is going backward.
Logic – 4
11. If the country face instability in there political environment. The GDP is getting lower.
People get low rate of their product that will directly reduce there earning. So, as a result people
don’t have much to meet there expenses.
Logic – 5
Gross National Product means the overall earning of the country by mean of export and
some other means. It will be highly effect when a country has instable positions in there politic
Environment. Then as a result the GNP is also getting lower and growth overall disturbed.
Step – 4 Proposition of Inventory
Change in Political stability result in change in Economic Growth.
By stabling the Political environment the employment, GDP & GNP are increase.
If the GDP & GNP is increasing. There will be more employment opportunities available
for the people of that country. People earning increase that will enhance there living
standard. That will result that country will on way to start progressing by leap and bounds.
Step – 5 Sequence of Proposition
Change in Political stability result in change in Economic Growth.
By stabling the Political environment the employment, GDP & GNP are increase.
If the GDP & GNP is increasing. There will be more employment opportunit ies
available for the people of that country. People earning increase that will enhance
their living standard. That will result that country will on way to start progressing
by leap and bounds.
Step – 6 Diagram
12. Hypothesis
Political
Stability
Economic
Growth
Political
Stability
Economic
Growth
H1= If political instability increases then economic growth will be decreases
H0= If the political instability decreases then the economic activity will be increases
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