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A visual analysis of
 relationships between GSAT
  Grade 7 & 9 Diagnostic and
     CSEC performance in
secondary schools in Jamaica
                 2008-2011
  JTA Education Conference 2012
        Robert Philips, Education Specialist

           e-Learning Jamaica Company
                    April 2012

                 www.e-ljam.net
Background
• The e-Learning Jamaica Project is a collaboration
  between the Ministry of Science Technology Energy
  and Mining and the Ministry of Education to
  systematically strengthen inputs to instruction in
  high schools.

• Information and communications technologies and
  instructor capabilities are being enhanced, with a
  view to increasing success of students at the CSEC
  level
Glossary
•   GSAT-- the national terminal    •   GNDT—Grade 9 diagnostic
    examination for the primary         test—an examination
    curriculum serving as the           designed by CXC to provide
    placement tool for secondary        planning and intervention
    school
                                        information to schools and
•   PSLE—the equivalent exam in         individual students, adopted
    Singapore                           by the MOE for national
•   Communication task—the two          implementation
    part writing component of the
    GSAT examination                •   All-Age Schools—schools
•   CXC—Caribbean                       with some secondary grades
    Examinations Council—               in addition to full primary
    regional authority for school   •   Primary and Junior High—
    examinations                        another type of school with
•   CSEC—CXC exams typically            secondary grades in addition
    done at the end of 11th grade       to full primary
    providing a basis for college
    matriculation
Project Components
•   Infrastructure
•   Materials
•   Assessment
•   Remediation
•   Training
Organisation
•   Context
•   Vision
•   Practice
•   Results
•   Analysis
•   Lessons learned
•   Sustainability strategies
Context
      •   GOOGLE search on
          “GSAT ANXIETY”
          has 79,400 hits



      •   Search on
          “PSLE ANXIETY”
          has 46,600 hits
Vision


If you want to improve a system over
   time you will get surprises if you
   don’t have a tracking process
Practice
• Ministry of Education agreed to a
  National 9th grade Diagnostic
  implemented by e-Ljam
• Caribbean Examinations Council contracted to
  organise and deliver
   – End-of-year multiple choice test with
   – Continuous internal assessment
   – Voluntary 7th grade assessment
The roots of school performance
                  r=0.99 !!!!
               Math      Math                                      Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSAT
School Name    2008      2009

Aabuthnott                                          120
Gallimore
High             58.88     53.13
                                                    100


                                   Math GSAT 2009
                                                    80
Albert Town                                         60
High             46.73     44.73
                                                    40
                                                    20
Annotto Bay      53.96     50.62
                                                     0
Ardenne High                                              0   20         40        60          80   100   120
School           94.39     93.63                                              Math GSAT 2008


Ascot High       48.52     45.29
A school perception index ?
                                Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSAT
                                                                             •   Intake GSAT Math means for two
                                                                                 consecutive years for high schools
                 120
                 100                                                         •   Explanation invited
                  80                                                         •   Submission that school perception
                  60                                                             as indexed by selection and/or
                                                                                 placement is the main determinant
Math GSAT 2009




                  40                                                             of future performance

                  20                                                         •   Visual anomalies are technical
                                                                                 schools which became normal
                   0                                                             clients of GSAT in 2009
                       0   20         40        60          80   100   120
                                                                             •   Source :MOE data
                                           Math GSAT 2008
A school perception index ?
                                Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSAT

                 120                                                         •   Intake GSAT scores are
                 100                                                             technically independent of
                 80
                                                                                 the internals of schools
                 60
Math GSAT 2009




                                                                             •   Schools with lowest intake
                 40
                                                                                 GSAT scores have lowest
                 20                                                              levels of academic success
                  0                                                          •   A new rationale for
                       0   20         40        60          80   100   120       placement may be required
                                           Math GSAT 2008
Results of Assessment Component

Growth in participation
2        7000 pilot grade 9          30 schools
3       30000 national grade 9      150 schools
4       64000 grade 9 and grade 7   173 schools *
5       82000 projected             180 schools

*10 Benchmark All-Age and Primary Jnr High included in 2011
Scanning Technology
          •   Examview
          •   Use scanners supplied by
              project
          •   Local, decentralised solution
          •    Automatic Document feed
          •   Powerful reporting suite
          •   Replaced CXC registration
              strategy and MOE
              centralized scanning
          •   7 day turnaround
Performance Trends 2010
• 10% of schools don’t participate
• 11% of students in participating schools
  miss exams
• 81% of participants score 45% or
  greater on multiple choice test for
  English
• 38% of participants score 45% or
  greater on Maths test
2010---Math—level 1
          •   Fairly good performance is seen on statistics
              items, with an average of 70%.
          •   Many students missed items on Number &
              Computation such as: order of operations (70%
              of students), place value (5-digits (60%),
              decimal – hundredths (70%)) (easily Grades 6-7
              objectives).
          •   Students answered correctly, on average, only
              one-third of the items on Measurement &
              Geometry and Algebra.




          •   Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam Consultant
          •
2010—math level 1
         •   Females students performed
             better than male students in all
             sub-topics except in
             Measurement and Geometry.
         •   The average difference is 2%.
         •   The largest differences are in
             Statistics (7.6%) and Consumer
             Arithmetic (4.1%)
         •   The difference in favour of
             males in Measurement and
             Geometry is 0.5%.
         •   36.4% of female students and
             31.6 % of male students scored
             45% or more.

         •   Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam
             Consultant
Math 2010—level 2
         •   All sub-topics, except Algebra have
             mean percent scores above 40%.
         •   Statistics, Consumer Arithmetic and
             Relations & Graphs have the
             highest mean percent scores.
         •   Algebra has the lowest scores on
             this paper.
         •   Students need more work in the
             following areas: Number and
             Computation, Measurement and
             Geometry and Algebra.



         •   Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam Consultant
Select schools 2010




•   School A has been closed
Select schools 2010




•   School B labelled as failing
Select schools 2010




School X a classic outlier GSAT scores >95 or +3 standard deviations
Select schools 2010
          • Ecological validity of the
            assessment system
            tested using six Catholic
            high schools


          • English > Math
Select schools 2010
          • Ecological validity of the
            assessment system
            tested using six Catholic
            high schools


          • “posh” vs “poor” *
                x,c vs a,b

          * after Miller
Select schools 2010
          • Ecological validity of the
            assessment system
            tested using six Catholic
            high schools


          • girls vs boys

                  y,c vs z
Summary results
                     Grade 9
                        2011
•   Available cohort                41946
•   Patricipation                   37362
•   Scoring less than 45% English    8816
•   National Means
     – Math                         37.06
     – English                      54.99
     – Integrated Science           44.65
     – Social Studies               51.53
Summary results
                     Grade 7--2011

•   Available cohort    est.        45000
•   Patricipation                   27000
•   Scoring less than 45% English    6800
•   Scoring less than 45% Math      11900

• National Means
   – Math                           45.7
   – English                        55.8
   – Integrated Science             50.6
   – Social Studies                 50.5
Grade 9 Math vs English 2011
                                                                    how schools math and language performance covary at grade 9


                                                 90

                                                 80

•   140+ of 173                                  70


    schools
                          test mean for school
                                                 60

                                                 50
•
                                                                                                                                                   math_9_2011
    Gap in raw scores                            40
                                                                                                                                                   eng_9_2011


    lowest for outliers                          30

                                                 20

                                                 10

                                                  0
                                                      1   8   15   22   29   36   43   50   57   64   71   78   85   92   99 106 113 120 127 134
                                                                                                 school no.
GSAT scores 2008 vs Grade 9 2011


                      •   Same cohort after 3
                          years
                      •   GSAT means of 80
                          give ca 100%
                          probability of ninth
                          grade success for
                          English
                      •   Math performance
                          would be interesting to
                          track
English GSAT vs Math GSAT 2010

• Between school                                                          Chart Title           y = 0.9262x + 5.2538

  means of English
                                                                                                       2
                                                                                                     R = 0.9935
                                            100


  and Math                                  90
                                            80


  abnormally linear                         70




                        english gsat 2010
                                            60
                                                                                                       egs2010
                                            50

• Explanation invited                       40
                                            30
                                                                                                       Linear (egs2010)




• Is reading the                            20
                                            10


  common factor?                              0
                                                  0   20   40        60          80     100   120
                                                                math gsat 2010

• Is there a variable
  called test taking?
GSAT means 2010 vs Gseven 2011


                                                             y = 0.7231x + 10.42
                                                                                           • Low contribution of
                                  gsat 2010 vs gseven 2011       R2 = 0.9327
                                                                                             instruction to the
              90.0


              80.0
                                                                                             variance after a year in
              70.0                                                                           high school
              60.0
gseven 2011




              50.0


              40.0
                                                                                           • R (g6 vs g7) > .95
              30.0


              20.0


              10.0


               0.0
                     0.0   20.0      40.0      60.0      80.0         100.0        120.0
                                                                                           •   Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e-
                                             gsat 2010                                         Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
GSAT communication task


•   Currently the only production test
    in GSAT
•   Divides schools into two quadrants
•   Communication task of 7 and
    below associated with lower overall
    performance
•   Planned for replacement by a book
    report

•   Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and
    e-Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
GSAT communication task


•   Currently the only production test
    in GSAT
•   Divides schools into two quadrants
•   Communication task of 7 and
    below associated with lower overall
    performance
•   Planned for replacement by a book
    report



•   Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e-Ljam
    grade 7 exams 2011
GSAT communication task
          one year later


•   Urgent review of the future of
    the communication task is
    recommended
•   No evidence that book reports
    are going to represent
    students work given the
    behavior with CSEC SBAs



•   Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results
    and e-Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
Indices of CSEC performance
•   Bill Johnson—Ralph Thompson
    –Gleaner 2020 index
•   Adopted by e-Ljam ,with some
    reservations as a meaningful
    index
•   Simply – school score is 100 if
    every student in cohort scores a
    Grade 1
•   Grade 1 is valued at 4
•   Grade 2 is valued at 2
•   Grade 3 is valued at 1
Tracking variables for six select
                                        schools
                                      tracking variables for selected schools

                            80
                            70
                            60
                                                                                 mgs2008
                                                                                 egs2008
                                                                                               •   GSAT
                            50
                                                                                 math_9_2011
                                                                                               •   GNINE
percent or index for gsat
       or gnine or csec




                            40
                                                                                 eng_9_2011
                            30
                            20
                            10
                                                                                 e10
                                                                                 m10
                                                                                               •   CSEC english
                             0
                                 o1   o2       b1            h1   s1        t1
                                                                                 avg_gsat
                                                                                 av_g9
                                                                                               •   CSEC math
                                                    school
Visual analysis—grade 7--2011
                                                     schools by comm task score

                        120
                                                                                                         mgs2010
                        100                                                                              egs2010
gsat gseven cxc index




                                                                                                         scigs2010
                        80                                                                               socgs2010
                                                                                                         math_7_2011
                                                                                                         eng_7_2011
                        60
                                                                                                         sci_7_2011
                                                                                                         soc_7_2011
                        40
                                                                                                         eng-jt_2007
                                                                                                         math-jt_2007
                        20
                                                                                                         e09
                                                                                                         m09
                         0                                                                               e10
                              1   8   15   22   29    36   43    50   57   64   71   78   85   92   99   m10
                                                                school
Visual analysis Grade 7--2011




• CSEC indices m 10—math 2010 e 10---- english 2010
• GSAT mgs 2010 egs 2010
• Grade 7 –math_7_2011 eng_7_2011
Visual analysis
        •   Partially cross-sectional
            2010 GSAT vs CSEC
        •    partially longitudinal
            2010—2011 GSAT vs G7
        •   Intake GSAT scores trend
            similarly to CSEC indices
        •   Floor CSEC results for more
            than half the schools
        •   GSAT placement reinforces
            a culture of failure in the
            majority
Conclusions
•      GSAT intake means are a measure of the perception of schools

•      GSAT means forecast Grade 7 Grade 9 and CSEC performance with the robustness of physical science measures

•      Maths and English gap is evident from grade 7

•      Geometry and algebra weaknesses are evident

    Contrary to the view that GSAT is too hard, there are not enough moderate to high performance students to share among
       the 170+ schools

•      Students scoring less than 80 could be placed on geography and some of those above could receive advanced
       placement and seek to complete high school in four years

•      The GSAT communication task should be reviewed for retention as independent writing is encouraged

•      The communication task discriminates and is associated with varying levels of terminal secondary performance

•      Data is available to inform policy and strategy choices

•      An education system that does not acknowledge the foundations of literacy will have low levels of success
Lessons learned
• Jamaican teachers are eager to incorporate
  technology into their professional practice,
  including assessment

• The consistent placement of weaker students
  in the same schools reinforces the culture of
  failure
• Assessment at ninth grade indicates that
  even at current levels of primary school
  output quality, higher levels of success in
  CSEC Math and English are achievable
Sustainability
• The Ministry of Education has
  contracted a supplier for the strategic
  overhaul of the lower secondary
  curriculum and related assessment
  processes
• E-Learning Jamaica has been
  requested to liaise with the supplier
Question Time

Robert Philips, Education Specialist


   www.e-ljam.net

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Jta conference2012

  • 1. A visual analysis of relationships between GSAT Grade 7 & 9 Diagnostic and CSEC performance in secondary schools in Jamaica 2008-2011 JTA Education Conference 2012 Robert Philips, Education Specialist e-Learning Jamaica Company April 2012 www.e-ljam.net
  • 2. Background • The e-Learning Jamaica Project is a collaboration between the Ministry of Science Technology Energy and Mining and the Ministry of Education to systematically strengthen inputs to instruction in high schools. • Information and communications technologies and instructor capabilities are being enhanced, with a view to increasing success of students at the CSEC level
  • 3. Glossary • GSAT-- the national terminal • GNDT—Grade 9 diagnostic examination for the primary test—an examination curriculum serving as the designed by CXC to provide placement tool for secondary planning and intervention school information to schools and • PSLE—the equivalent exam in individual students, adopted Singapore by the MOE for national • Communication task—the two implementation part writing component of the GSAT examination • All-Age Schools—schools • CXC—Caribbean with some secondary grades Examinations Council— in addition to full primary regional authority for school • Primary and Junior High— examinations another type of school with • CSEC—CXC exams typically secondary grades in addition done at the end of 11th grade to full primary providing a basis for college matriculation
  • 4. Project Components • Infrastructure • Materials • Assessment • Remediation • Training
  • 5. Organisation • Context • Vision • Practice • Results • Analysis • Lessons learned • Sustainability strategies
  • 6. Context • GOOGLE search on “GSAT ANXIETY” has 79,400 hits • Search on “PSLE ANXIETY” has 46,600 hits
  • 7. Vision If you want to improve a system over time you will get surprises if you don’t have a tracking process
  • 8. Practice • Ministry of Education agreed to a National 9th grade Diagnostic implemented by e-Ljam • Caribbean Examinations Council contracted to organise and deliver – End-of-year multiple choice test with – Continuous internal assessment – Voluntary 7th grade assessment
  • 9. The roots of school performance r=0.99 !!!! Math Math Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSAT School Name 2008 2009 Aabuthnott 120 Gallimore High 58.88 53.13 100 Math GSAT 2009 80 Albert Town 60 High 46.73 44.73 40 20 Annotto Bay 53.96 50.62 0 Ardenne High 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 School 94.39 93.63 Math GSAT 2008 Ascot High 48.52 45.29
  • 10. A school perception index ? Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSAT • Intake GSAT Math means for two consecutive years for high schools 120 100 • Explanation invited 80 • Submission that school perception 60 as indexed by selection and/or placement is the main determinant Math GSAT 2009 40 of future performance 20 • Visual anomalies are technical schools which became normal 0 clients of GSAT in 2009 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 • Source :MOE data Math GSAT 2008
  • 11. A school perception index ? Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSAT 120 • Intake GSAT scores are 100 technically independent of 80 the internals of schools 60 Math GSAT 2009 • Schools with lowest intake 40 GSAT scores have lowest 20 levels of academic success 0 • A new rationale for 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 placement may be required Math GSAT 2008
  • 12. Results of Assessment Component Growth in participation 2 7000 pilot grade 9 30 schools 3 30000 national grade 9 150 schools 4 64000 grade 9 and grade 7 173 schools * 5 82000 projected 180 schools *10 Benchmark All-Age and Primary Jnr High included in 2011
  • 13. Scanning Technology • Examview • Use scanners supplied by project • Local, decentralised solution • Automatic Document feed • Powerful reporting suite • Replaced CXC registration strategy and MOE centralized scanning • 7 day turnaround
  • 14. Performance Trends 2010 • 10% of schools don’t participate • 11% of students in participating schools miss exams • 81% of participants score 45% or greater on multiple choice test for English • 38% of participants score 45% or greater on Maths test
  • 15. 2010---Math—level 1 • Fairly good performance is seen on statistics items, with an average of 70%. • Many students missed items on Number & Computation such as: order of operations (70% of students), place value (5-digits (60%), decimal – hundredths (70%)) (easily Grades 6-7 objectives). • Students answered correctly, on average, only one-third of the items on Measurement & Geometry and Algebra. • Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam Consultant •
  • 16. 2010—math level 1 • Females students performed better than male students in all sub-topics except in Measurement and Geometry. • The average difference is 2%. • The largest differences are in Statistics (7.6%) and Consumer Arithmetic (4.1%) • The difference in favour of males in Measurement and Geometry is 0.5%. • 36.4% of female students and 31.6 % of male students scored 45% or more. • Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam Consultant
  • 17. Math 2010—level 2 • All sub-topics, except Algebra have mean percent scores above 40%. • Statistics, Consumer Arithmetic and Relations & Graphs have the highest mean percent scores. • Algebra has the lowest scores on this paper. • Students need more work in the following areas: Number and Computation, Measurement and Geometry and Algebra. • Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam Consultant
  • 18. Select schools 2010 • School A has been closed
  • 19. Select schools 2010 • School B labelled as failing
  • 20. Select schools 2010 School X a classic outlier GSAT scores >95 or +3 standard deviations
  • 21. Select schools 2010 • Ecological validity of the assessment system tested using six Catholic high schools • English > Math
  • 22. Select schools 2010 • Ecological validity of the assessment system tested using six Catholic high schools • “posh” vs “poor” * x,c vs a,b * after Miller
  • 23. Select schools 2010 • Ecological validity of the assessment system tested using six Catholic high schools • girls vs boys y,c vs z
  • 24. Summary results Grade 9 2011 • Available cohort 41946 • Patricipation 37362 • Scoring less than 45% English 8816 • National Means – Math 37.06 – English 54.99 – Integrated Science 44.65 – Social Studies 51.53
  • 25. Summary results Grade 7--2011 • Available cohort est. 45000 • Patricipation 27000 • Scoring less than 45% English 6800 • Scoring less than 45% Math 11900 • National Means – Math 45.7 – English 55.8 – Integrated Science 50.6 – Social Studies 50.5
  • 26. Grade 9 Math vs English 2011 how schools math and language performance covary at grade 9 90 80 • 140+ of 173 70 schools test mean for school 60 50 • math_9_2011 Gap in raw scores 40 eng_9_2011 lowest for outliers 30 20 10 0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 school no.
  • 27. GSAT scores 2008 vs Grade 9 2011 • Same cohort after 3 years • GSAT means of 80 give ca 100% probability of ninth grade success for English • Math performance would be interesting to track
  • 28. English GSAT vs Math GSAT 2010 • Between school Chart Title y = 0.9262x + 5.2538 means of English 2 R = 0.9935 100 and Math 90 80 abnormally linear 70 english gsat 2010 60 egs2010 50 • Explanation invited 40 30 Linear (egs2010) • Is reading the 20 10 common factor? 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 math gsat 2010 • Is there a variable called test taking?
  • 29. GSAT means 2010 vs Gseven 2011 y = 0.7231x + 10.42 • Low contribution of gsat 2010 vs gseven 2011 R2 = 0.9327 instruction to the 90.0 80.0 variance after a year in 70.0 high school 60.0 gseven 2011 50.0 40.0 • R (g6 vs g7) > .95 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 • Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e- gsat 2010 Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
  • 30. GSAT communication task • Currently the only production test in GSAT • Divides schools into two quadrants • Communication task of 7 and below associated with lower overall performance • Planned for replacement by a book report • Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e-Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
  • 31. GSAT communication task • Currently the only production test in GSAT • Divides schools into two quadrants • Communication task of 7 and below associated with lower overall performance • Planned for replacement by a book report • Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e-Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
  • 32. GSAT communication task one year later • Urgent review of the future of the communication task is recommended • No evidence that book reports are going to represent students work given the behavior with CSEC SBAs • Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e-Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
  • 33. Indices of CSEC performance • Bill Johnson—Ralph Thompson –Gleaner 2020 index • Adopted by e-Ljam ,with some reservations as a meaningful index • Simply – school score is 100 if every student in cohort scores a Grade 1 • Grade 1 is valued at 4 • Grade 2 is valued at 2 • Grade 3 is valued at 1
  • 34. Tracking variables for six select schools tracking variables for selected schools 80 70 60 mgs2008 egs2008 • GSAT 50 math_9_2011 • GNINE percent or index for gsat or gnine or csec 40 eng_9_2011 30 20 10 e10 m10 • CSEC english 0 o1 o2 b1 h1 s1 t1 avg_gsat av_g9 • CSEC math school
  • 35. Visual analysis—grade 7--2011 schools by comm task score 120 mgs2010 100 egs2010 gsat gseven cxc index scigs2010 80 socgs2010 math_7_2011 eng_7_2011 60 sci_7_2011 soc_7_2011 40 eng-jt_2007 math-jt_2007 20 e09 m09 0 e10 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 m10 school
  • 36. Visual analysis Grade 7--2011 • CSEC indices m 10—math 2010 e 10---- english 2010 • GSAT mgs 2010 egs 2010 • Grade 7 –math_7_2011 eng_7_2011
  • 37. Visual analysis • Partially cross-sectional 2010 GSAT vs CSEC • partially longitudinal 2010—2011 GSAT vs G7 • Intake GSAT scores trend similarly to CSEC indices • Floor CSEC results for more than half the schools • GSAT placement reinforces a culture of failure in the majority
  • 38. Conclusions • GSAT intake means are a measure of the perception of schools • GSAT means forecast Grade 7 Grade 9 and CSEC performance with the robustness of physical science measures • Maths and English gap is evident from grade 7 • Geometry and algebra weaknesses are evident Contrary to the view that GSAT is too hard, there are not enough moderate to high performance students to share among the 170+ schools • Students scoring less than 80 could be placed on geography and some of those above could receive advanced placement and seek to complete high school in four years • The GSAT communication task should be reviewed for retention as independent writing is encouraged • The communication task discriminates and is associated with varying levels of terminal secondary performance • Data is available to inform policy and strategy choices • An education system that does not acknowledge the foundations of literacy will have low levels of success
  • 39. Lessons learned • Jamaican teachers are eager to incorporate technology into their professional practice, including assessment • The consistent placement of weaker students in the same schools reinforces the culture of failure • Assessment at ninth grade indicates that even at current levels of primary school output quality, higher levels of success in CSEC Math and English are achievable
  • 40. Sustainability • The Ministry of Education has contracted a supplier for the strategic overhaul of the lower secondary curriculum and related assessment processes • E-Learning Jamaica has been requested to liaise with the supplier
  • 41. Question Time Robert Philips, Education Specialist www.e-ljam.net