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JLL Columbus Office Outlook - Q4 2020
- 1. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
JLL Research
Columbus | Q2 2018
Office
Outlook
An in-depth look at the
Columbus office market.
Analysis includes leasing,
sales, construction and
employment.
JLL Research
Office Outlook
Columbus | Q4 2020
An in-depth look at the Columbus office
market. Analysis includes leasing, sales,
construction and employment.
- 2. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Insight
Columbus Office Outlook
The future of office space will undoubtedly be impacted by COVID-19. Users
are reexamining their office footprints and trying to identify what works best
for their employee base. The influx of vacant sublease space, which is now up
to over 800,000 s.f. in Class A and B product across the Columbus region, has
portrayed a story of uncertainty throughout 2020. However, construction and
preleasing activity in Q4 indicate that both developers and users envision
reentry as imminent.
Three speculative projects broke ground in Q4 totaling 489,000 s.f. Two
projects, the Scioto Peninsula Phase I (231,000 s.f.) and Hamilton Quarter
(134,000 s.f.), announced that construction began with preleasing in place.
The third project to break ground is Wagenbrenner’s second phase of
Grandview Crossing, which now includes two 124,000 s.f. speculative office
buildings. Of the 1 m.s.f. of speculative product under construction, 238,000
s.f. is preleased. There were also three completions in Q4 that included
preleasing activity. Pointe at Polaris II (145,000 s.f.) delivered at 42%
occupancy, The Hayden (82,000 s.f.) delivered at 26% occupancy, and Bridge
Park Block D (81,000 s.f.) delivered at 44% occupancy.
Outlook
Net absorption in 2020 hit a record low at negative 969,000 s.f., which resulted
in a 4.4% rise in total vacancy. Sublease space accounted for 70% of the
negative activity. Over 80% of vacant sublease space is spread across major
suburban submarkets with large corporate users accounting for a significant
share. It is unclear how some of these users will handle their space if reentry is
accelerated in 2021. The market appears to have weathered the brunt of the
storm with both Q3 and Q4 experiencing a significant increase in total leasing
activity compared to Q2, the start of nearly universal remote working. Direct
asking rates have risen over $1.00 p.s.f. in 2020 despite unfavorable demand
metrics. This trend will likely continue in 2021 alongside speculative
deliveries.
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption
Deliveries
Construction activity reveals positive outlook for reentry
5%
15%
25%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Total vacancy
$10
$15
$20
$25
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
Direct Sublease
• Three speculative buildings broke ground totaling 489,000 s.f. and three
buildings delivered with 120,000 s.f. preleased between them
• Total leasing activity reached 344,000 s.f. in Q4, which is a 120,000 s.f. increase
compared to Q3
• Despite negative 1.1 m.s.f. net absorption and a 4.4% rise in total vacancy, direct
asking rates increased over $1.00 p.s.f. to $21.48
Fundamentals Forecast
YTD net absorption -969,935 s.f. ▲
Under construction 1,078,649 s.f. ▼
Total vacancy 19.3%
▲
Sublease vacancy 803,170 s.f. ▲
Direct asking rent $21.59 p.s.f. ▲
Sublease asking rent $21.45 p.s.f. ▼
Concessions Increasing ▲
- 3. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Statistics
Columbus Office Outlook
Note: There was an update to historical figures based on new methodology. Historical data points included in this report reflect the updated property set.
Class Inventory (s.f.)
Total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD total net
absorption (s.f.)
YTD total net
absorption (% of
stock)
Direct vacancy
(%)
Total vacancy
(%)
Average direct
asking rent ($
p.s.f.)
YTD Completions
(s.f.)
Under
Development
(s.f.)
Arena District / Pen West Totals 2,081,120 -59,931 -176,734 -8.5% 12.1% 16.0% $28.26 0 273,000
Brewery District / River South Totals 1,147,284 -36,117 -62,463 -5.4% 9.6% 12.0% $23.20 0 0
Capitol Square Totals 5,355,446 3,918 -63,307 -1.2% 25.8% 26.1% $21.57 82,103 0
Other Totals 441,027 -4,900 -16,230 -3.7% 10.2% 10.2% $24.77 0 397,938
Short North / Warehouse District Totals 1,211,813 -9,545 -18,742 -1.5% 7.4% 8.2% $24.95 45,000 0
CBD Totals 10,236,690 -106,575 -337,476 -3.3% 18.4% 19.7% $22.56 127,103 670,938
Campus / Clintonville Totals 372,480 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0
Polaris Totals 2,400,084 81,625 93,662 3.9% 25.3% 25.8% $21.05 145,000 0
Worthington Totals 3,014,900 -7,569 -88,716 -2.9% 16.3% 19.2% $18.56 0 0
North Totals 5,787,464 74,056 4,946 0.1% 19.0% 20.7% $20.06 145,000 0
Airport / I-670 Totals 575,962 0 2,249 0.4% 6.4% 6.4% $15.19 0 0
East I-70 Corridor Totals 134,096 0 26,576 19.8% 74.1% 74.1% $0.00 0 0
Easton Totals 2,586,657 -22,382 -157,294 -6.1% 12.6% 22.3% $23.08 199,470 0
Gahanna Totals 661,592 -86,365 -72,756 -11.0% 8.3% 21.5% $20.56 0 0
New Albany Totals 1,424,733 2,314 -58,835 -4.1% 5.3% 8.9% $22.09 0 134,211
Northeast Columbus / Westerville Totals 1,557,814 5,064 -245,704 -15.8% 25.1% 32.9% $16.74 0 0
Northeast Totals 6,940,854 -101,369 -505,764 -7.3% 14.2% 21.5% $19.93 199,470 134,211
Bethel Totals 473,736 -14,396 -3,812 -0.8% 4.7% 7.6% $16.75 0 0
Dublin Totals 6,227,833 11,362 -151,876 -2.4% 20.2% 20.8% $22.46 81,456 25,000
Grandview / Arlington Totals 1,042,903 6,030 6,413 0.6% 3.8% 4.4% $19.54 34,000 248,500
Hilliard / West Totals 940,417 -1,155 18,634 2.0% 8.4% 8.4% $19.07 0 0
Northwest Totals 8,684,889 1,841 -130,641 -1.5% 16.1% 16.8% $22.22 115,456 273,500
Columbus Totals 31,649,897 -132,047 -968,935 -3.1% 16.9% 19.5% $21.59 587,029 1,078,649
Arena District / Pen West A 1,715,872 -47,349 -117,107 -6.8% 11.2% 15.6% $29.07 0 273,000
Brewery District / River South A 243,547 -7,266 5,983 2.5% 7.6% 8.6% $24.50 0 0
Capitol Square A 1,741,841 8,307 229 0.0% 14.3% 15.1% $25.30 82,103 0
Other A 48,000 -4,900 -4,900 -10.2% 68.5% 68.5% $26.50 0 397,938
Short North / Warehouse District A 273,000 0 42,122 15.4% 5.8% 5.8% $34.78 45,000 0
CBD A 4,022,260 -51,208 -73,673 -1.8% 12.6% 14.9% $26.06 127,103 670,938
Polaris A 1,811,418 76,616 110,890 6.1% 23.4% 24.0% $21.61 145,000 0
Worthington A 250,169 -6,210 -53,578 -21.4% 6.3% 26.3% $22.00 0 0
North A 2,061,587 70,406 57,312 2.8% 21.3% 24.3% $21.66 145,000 0
Airport / I-670 A 124,922 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0
Easton A 2,501,563 -22,382 -157,294 -6.3% 13.0% 23.1% $23.08 199,470 0
Gahanna A 220,357 0 9,960 4.5% 8.6% 8.6% $20.95 0 0
New Albany A 1,218,688 0 -8,290 -0.7% 6.2% 6.2% $22.09 0 134,211
Northeast Columbus / Westerville A 155,500 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0
Northeast A 4,221,030 -22,382 -155,624 -3.7% 10.0% 15.9% $22.50 199,470 134,211
Dublin A 4,162,618 27,131 -111,739 -2.7% 23.7% 23.9% $23.43 81,456 25,000
Grandview / Arlington A 312,053 6,030 30,177 9.7% 0.0% 2.3% $0.00 34,000 248,500
Hilliard / West A 440,882 -1,155 17,600 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% $19.83 0 0
Northwest A 4,915,553 32,006 -63,962 -1.3% 20.5% 20.8% $23.35 115,456 273,500
Columbus A 15,220,430 28,822 -235,947 -1.6% 15.6% 18.4% $23.44 587,029 1,078,649
Arena District / Pen West B 365,248 -12,582 -59,627 -16.3% 16.1% 17.9% $27.72 0 0
Brewery District / River South B 903,737 -28,851 -68,446 -7.6% 10.1% 12.9% $21.75 0 0
Capitol Square B 3,613,605 -4,389 -63,536 -1.8% 31.4% 31.4% $20.83 0 0
Other B 393,027 0 -11,330 -2.9% 3.1% 3.1% $20.02 0 0
Short North / Warehouse District B 938,813 -9,545 -60,864 -6.5% 7.9% 8.8% $23.09 0 0
CBD B 6,214,430 -55,367 -263,803 -4.2% 22.1% 22.7% $21.46 0 0
Campus / Clintonville B 372,480 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0
Polaris B 588,666 5,009 -17,228 -2.9% 31.3% 31.3% $20.07 0 0
Worthington B 2,764,731 -1,359 -35,138 -1.3% 17.2% 18.6% $18.01 0 0
North B 3,725,877 3,650 -52,366 -1.4% 17.7% 18.7% $18.81 0 0
Airport / I-670 B 451,040 0 2,249 0.5% 8.2% 8.2% $15.19 0 0
East I-70 Corridor B 134,096 0 26,576 19.8% 74.1% 74.1% $0.00 0 0
Easton B 85,094 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0
Gahanna B 441,235 -86,365 -82,716 -18.7% 8.1% 27.9% $20.36 0 0
New Albany B 206,045 2,314 -50,545 -24.5% 0.0% 24.5% $0.00 0 0
Northeast Columbus / Westerville B 1,402,314 5,064 -245,704 -17.5% 27.8% 36.6% $16.74 0 0
Northeast B 2,719,824 -78,987 -350,140 -12.9% 20.7% 30.2% $17.02 0 0
Bethel B 473,736 -14,396 -3,812 -0.8% 4.7% 7.6% $16.75 0 0
Dublin B 2,065,215 -15,769 -40,137 -1.9% 13.1% 14.7% $20.67 0 0
Grandview / Arlington B 730,850 0 -23,764 -3.3% 5.4% 5.4% $19.54 0 0
Hilliard / West B 499,535 0 1,034 0.2% 11.4% 11.4% $18.24 0 0
Northwest B 3,769,336 -30,165 -66,679 -1.8% 10.3% 11.5% $20.38 0 0
Columbus B 16,429,467 -160,869 -732,988 -4.5% 18.2% 20.5% $20.16 0 0
- 4. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Leasing in Q4
Columbus Office Outlook
2
2
Address: 330 Rush Alley
Square Feet: 45,000 s.f.
Tenant: Burgess & Niple Inc
Type: New Lease
5
Address: 350 Worthington Rd
Square Feet: 25,212 s.f.
Tenant: Health Mgmt Systems
Type: Renewal
5
4
Address: 9200 Worthington Rd
Square Feet: 28,377 s.f.
Tenant: Quest Business Centers
Type: New Lease
4
1
Address: 180 E Broad St
Square Feet: 126,168 s.f.
Tenant: Hexion
Type: Renewal
3
3
Address: 4960 E Dublin Rd
Square Feet: 28,836 s.f.
Tenant: White Oak Partners
Type: New Lease
1
- 5. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Sales
Columbus Office Outlook
Noteable sales transactions
Size (s.f.) $ p.s.f. Sale date
407,472 $150 Oct-19
65 E State St Group RMC Hertz Investment Group 495,000 $36,800,000 $74 Oct-20
145,000 $228 Mar-20
Starwood Capital 173,254 $179 Oct-19
142,315 $24,050,000 $169 Oct-19
2 Easton Oval 128,674 $163 Oct-19
125,031 $163 Oct-19
380 Polaris Pkwy Champion Cos Daimler 110,000 $15,750,000 $143 Dec-20
Ravinia Capital CapRocq 107,682 $13,750,000 $128 Oct-19
Amcor Holdings, Inc. The Opus Group 93,000 $11,900,000 $128 Oct-19
$31,075,336Daimler
Garrison Investment Group
Garrison Investment Group
CapRocq
$20,997,235
$20,402,765
855 Grandview Ave
600 N Cleveland Ave
500 S Front St
1 Easton Oval Founders Properties
80 E Rich St
625 Africa Rd
Founders Properties
Ravinia Capital
$33,100,000VEREIT DHL International
10 W Broad St Square Deal Capital The Hearn Company $61,000,000
Seller Sales priceBuilding address Buyer
Number of owner-user sales 1
Transactions details
Average price per square footSales volume by submarket (s.f.)
Number of sale-leasebacks 0
Q4 2019 - Q4 2020 Sales volume by building type
Total volume ($) $288,937,336
Total volume (s.f.) 2,280,728
Number of transactions 15
Number of investment sales 14
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000
Capitol Square
Polaris
Easton
Westerville
Brewery…
Grandview
Worthington
Dublin
1,000,000
2,000,000
$0
$55,000,000
$110,000,000
$165,000,000
$220,000,000
Class A Class B
Total volume ($) Total volume (s.f.)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Class A Class B
- 6. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Construction
Columbus Office Outlook
This dashboard analyzes office developments >20,000 s.f.
Total available at delivery (%) 52.0%
Total leased at delivery (%) 48.0%
Average floor plate (s.f.) 18,657
Average number of stories 4
Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) $29.50
Notable 12-month deliveries
Building Submarket RBA (s.f.) Delivered
Leased at delivery
(%)
Pt at Polaris II Polaris VanTrust 145,000 Speculative Q4 2020 41%
4131 Worth Ave Easton The Georgetown Company 98,769 Speculative Q3 2020 61%
The Hayden Capitol Square Tomko 82,103 Speculative Q4 2020 26%
Bridge Park Block D Dublin Crawford Hoying 81,456 Speculative Q4 2020 44%
4111 Worth Ave Easton The Georgetown Company 71,085 Speculative Q3 2020 53%
Total pre-leased (%) 22.0%
Total under construction (s.f.) 1,001,649
Total under renovation (s.f.) 77,000
Average floor plate (s.f.) 26,015
Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) $29.25
Notable projects under construction
Building RBA (s.f.)
Estimated
delivery
Pre-leased (%)
Scioto Peninsula Phase I Franklinton Daimler 230,938 Speculative Q3 2022 19%
Gravity 2.0 Franklinton Kaufman 167,000 Speculative Q4 2021 0%
Hamilton Quarter I New Albany Daimler 134,211 Speculative Q3 2021 20%
200 Vine St Arena District NRI 130,000 Speculative Q2 2021 75%
Grandview Crossing I Grandview Wagenbrenner 124,250 Speculative Q2 2021 0%
Owner/developer Spec or BTSSubmarket
Under construction/renovation
1,078,649
Under construction/renovation (s.f.)
At a glance
Upcoming deliveries by type (s.f., excludes YTD completions)
Spec/BTSOwner/developer
Historical completions
Deliveries
At a glance
587,029
YTD deliveries (s.f.)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Speculative
677,400
488,085
669,256
304,176
587,029
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
- 7. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Employment
Columbus Office Outlook
Job growth by sector (12-month change)
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Columbus U.S.
-26,800
-17,600
-10,000
-5,400
-4,700
-3,800
-3,000
-2,300
-1,300
-700
-30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0
Leisure & Hospitality
Educational & Health Services
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Other Services
Mining, Logging & Construction
Professional & Business Services
Manufacturing
Government
Financial Activities
Information
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment
Job growth (12-month change)
Job growth by sector (12-month change)Employment vs. unemployment rate
Employment by industry Employment trends (12-month change, 000s)
19%
17%
17%
15%
8%
8%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Government
Professional & Business Services
Educational & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Mining, Logging & Construction
Other Services
Information
*Represents 12-month change in employment. All charts represent economic conditions through January 2020, which was the latest data available at the time of publishing this report.
6.7%U.S. unemployment
-7.0%U.S. 12-month job growth
4.9%Columbus unemployment
-6.7%Columbus 12-month job growth
5.6%Ohio unemployment
-6.3%Ohio 12-month job growth
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Professional and Business Services Information
Government Financial Activities
- 8. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Andrew Batson
Vice President, Director of Research
+1 216 937 4374
andrew.batson@am.jll.com
Sam Stouffer
Senior Research Analyst
+1 614 460 4419
sam.stouffer@am.jll.com
Contact
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