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JLL Columbus Office Outlook Q1 2021
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An in-depth look at the Columbus office market.
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JLL Columbus Office Outlook Q1 2021
1.
Q1 2021 Columbus Office
Outlook
2.
© 2021 Jones
Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. The pandemic and subsequent economic slowdown have impacted several notable employers in the Columbus region. Future office space decisions have been pushed to a later date for many, while others have vacated large blocks and reduced their footprints. Major suburban submarkets have experienced the lion’s share of this activity. Since March 2020, the suburbs have experienced 1.2 m.s.f. of negative net absorption and an 8% rise in total vacancy. There are now 18 competitive buildings with large block availability (50,000 s.f.+ contiguous) in the suburbs. Lane Bryant is the latest tenant to vacate a single- tenant building, resulting in a 135,000 s.f. large block vacancy in Easton. The total square footage of large block vacancies in Easton is now up to 644,000 s.f. across five buildings. Dublin is well above that number at 1.1 m.s.f. Meanwhile, the CBD has been less impacted since the onset of the work-from-home order. Total vacancy has risen 5% with 324,000 s.f. of negative net absorption. There is 600,000 s.f. of speculative product currently under construction in the CBD, 27% is preleased. Outlook Work-from-home flexibility may become the “new normal,” with many employers still likely to maintain office spaces as cultural hubs for employee engagement. Before 2020, the Columbus office market was experiencing rapid leasing in new construction and Class A space, struggling to keep up with demand. Once we arrive at the new normal, maybe as soon as this summer, Columbus will have the quality of supply necessary to create engaging workplaces for expanding tenants. This is due to new construction in both the CBD and suburbs, as well as recently vacated Class A buildings. Columbus was attracting out-of-market employers before the pandemic due to its robust talent base and lower costs compared to larger markets. The market can now offer these companies multiple options. Opportunity knocks for Columbus and the “new normal” • Lane Bryant vacated its 135,000 s.f. building in Easton, the latest single- tenant building vacancy in the suburbs • Since Q2 2020, the CBD has experienced a 5% rise in total vacancy compared to an 8% increase across suburban submarkets • The market struggled to meet demand for Class A space before 2020, but new options abound for the “new normal” Fundamentals Forecast YTD net absorption -633,096 s.f. ▼ Under construction 1,411,374 s.f. ▼ Total vacancy 22.1% ▲ Sublease vacancy 958,227 s.f. ▲ Direct asking rent $21.68 p.s.f. ▼ Sublease asking rent $21.04 p.s.f. ▼ Concessions Rising ▲ -1,000 0 1,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2021 Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption Deliveries 0% 10% 20% 30% 2008 2012 2016 YTD 2021 Total vacancy (%) $0 $30 2008 2012 2016 YTD 2021 Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Direct Sublease thousands Insight
3.
Note: Updates to
the property set were made based on market dynamics. Historical data points included in this report reflect the updated property set. © 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Statistics Class Inventory (s.f.) Total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (% of stock) Direct vacancy (%) Total vacancy (%) Average direct asking rent ($ p.s.f.) YTD Completions (s.f.) Under Development (s.f.) Arena District / Pen West Totals 2,147,363 44,194 44,194 2.1% 12.7% 16.6% $28.75 66,243 207,000 Brewery District / River South Totals 1,147,284 -20,362 -20,362 -1.8% 11.3% 13.7% $22.95 0 0 Capitol Square Totals 5,355,446 8,342 8,342 0.2% 26.1% 26.4% $21.71 0 0 Other Totals 441,027 0 0 0.0% 5.2% 5.2% $23.12 0 811,538 Short North / Warehouse District Totals 1,211,813 -7,282 -7,282 -0.6% 7.1% 8.8% $24.62 0 0 CBD Totals 10,302,933 24,892 24,892 0.2% 18.5% 19.9% $22.67 66,243 1,018,538 Campus / Clintonville Totals 372,480 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 Polaris Totals 2,511,084 6,902 6,902 0.3% 25.9% 26.9% $20.68 0 0 Worthington Totals 3,014,900 -63,824 -63,824 -2.1% 18.1% 20.6% $18.20 0 0 North Totals 5,898,464 -56,922 -56,922 -1.0% 20.2% 22.0% $19.61 0 0 Airport / I-670 Totals 575,962 -1,259 -1,259 -0.2% 7.2% 7.2% $15.37 0 0 East I-70 Corridor Totals 134,096 0 0 0.0% 74.1% 74.1% $0.00 0 0 Easton Totals 2,586,657 -183,167 -183,167 -7.1% 18.1% 29.4% $23.55 0 0 Gahanna Totals 661,592 -161,305 -161,305 -24.4% 25.0% 45.9% $20.74 0 0 New Albany Totals 1,467,416 -58,832 -58,832 -4.0% 9.2% 12.6% $22.19 0 134,211 Northeast Columbus / Westerville Totals 1,690,118 -4,660 -4,660 -0.3% 23.4% 33.3% $16.12 0 0 Northeast Totals 7,115,841 -409,223 -409,223 -5.8% 18.3% 27.4% $20.61 0 134,211 Bethel Totals 473,736 -10,269 -10,269 -2.2% 4.7% 9.8% $16.75 0 0 Dublin Totals 6,252,833 -184,427 -184,427 -2.9% 25.0% 25.5% $22.43 25,000 0 Grandview / Arlington Totals 1,042,903 0 0 0.0% 3.8% 4.4% $24.75 0 258,625 Hilliard / West Totals 940,417 2,853 2,853 0.3% 8.1% 8.1% $19.98 0 0 Northwest Totals 8,709,889 -191,843 -191,843 -2.2% 19.5% 20.2% $22.53 25,000 258,625 Columbus Totals 32,027,127 -633,096 -633,096 -2.0% 19.1% 22.1% $21.68 91,243 1,411,374 Arena District / Pen West A 1,782,115 45,243 45,243 2.5% 12.0% 16.2% $29.07 66,243 207,000 Brewery District / River South A 243,547 20 20 0.0% 7.5% 8.6% $24.50 0 0 Capitol Square A 1,741,841 2,781 2,781 0.2% 14.1% 15.0% $25.30 0 0 Other A 48,000 0 0 0.0% 22.9% 22.9% $26.50 0 811,538 Short North / Warehouse District A 273,000 0 0 0.0% 5.8% 5.8% $35.00 0 0 CBD A 4,088,503 48,044 48,044 1.2% 12.3% 14.6% $26.00 66,243 1,018,538 Polaris A 1,922,418 7,102 7,102 0.4% 21.8% 23.1% $21.15 0 0 Worthington A 250,169 -15,685 -15,685 -6.3% 15.0% 32.6% $20.00 0 0 North A 2,172,587 -8,583 -8,583 -0.4% 21.0% 24.2% $21.03 0 0 Airport / I-670 A 124,922 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 Easton A 2,501,563 -183,167 -183,167 -7.3% 18.7% 30.4% $23.55 0 0 Gahanna A 220,357 -28,115 -28,115 -12.8% 21.4% 21.4% $20.95 0 0 New Albany A 1,261,371 -58,832 -58,832 -4.7% 10.7% 10.7% $22.19 0 134,211 Northeast Columbus / Westerville A 155,500 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 Northeast A 4,263,713 -270,114 -270,114 -6.3% 15.2% 22.1% $22.74 0 134,211 Dublin A 4,187,618 -125,482 -125,482 -3.0% 27.0% 27.3% $23.37 25,000 0 Grandview / Arlington A 312,053 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% $26.50 0 258,625 Hilliard / West A 440,882 -7,943 -7,943 -1.8% 6.8% 6.8% $20.98 0 0 Northwest A 4,940,553 -133,425 -133,425 -2.7% 23.5% 23.9% $23.66 25,000 258,625 Columbus A 15,465,356 -364,078 -364,078 -2.4% 17.9% 21.0% $23.41 91,243 1,411,374 Arena District / Pen West B 365,248 -1,049 -1,049 -0.3% 16.4% 18.2% $28.52 0 0 Brewery District / River South B 903,737 -20,382 -20,382 -2.3% 12.4% 15.1% $21.67 0 0 Capitol Square B 3,613,605 5,561 5,561 0.2% 31.8% 31.8% $20.85 0 0 Other B 393,027 0 0 0.0% 3.1% 3.1% $20.02 0 0 Short North / Warehouse District B 938,813 -7,282 -7,282 -0.8% 7.5% 9.6% $23.05 0 0 CBD B 6,214,430 -23,152 -23,152 -0.4% 22.6% 23.4% $21.59 0 0 Campus / Clintonville B 372,480 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 Polaris B 588,666 -200 -200 0.0% 39.2% 39.2% $19.74 0 0 Worthington B 2,764,731 -48,139 -48,139 -1.7% 18.3% 19.5% $18.00 0 0 North B 3,725,877 -48,339 -48,339 -1.3% 19.8% 20.7% $18.57 0 0 Airport / I-670 B 451,040 -1,259 -1,259 -0.3% 9.2% 9.2% $15.37 0 0 East I-70 Corridor B 134,096 0 0 0.0% 74.1% 74.1% $0.00 0 0 Easton B 85,094 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 Gahanna B 441,235 -133,190 -133,190 -30.2% 26.9% 58.1% $20.66 0 0 New Albany B 206,045 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 24.5% $0.00 0 0 Northeast Columbus / Westerville B 1,534,618 -4,660 -4,660 -0.3% 25.7% 36.6% $16.12 0 0 Northeast B 2,852,128 -139,109 -139,109 -4.9% 22.9% 35.4% $17.10 0 0 Bethel B 473,736 -10,269 -10,269 -2.2% 4.7% 9.8% $16.75 0 0 Dublin B 2,065,215 -58,945 -58,945 -2.9% 20.9% 21.7% $20.32 0 0 Grandview / Arlington B 730,850 0 0 0.0% 5.4% 5.4% $19.32 0 0 Hilliard / West B 499,535 10,796 10,796 2.2% 9.3% 9.3% $17.99 0 0 Northwest B 3,769,336 -58,418 -58,418 -1.6% 14.3% 15.4% $20.03 0 0 Columbus B 16,561,771 -269,018 -269,018 -1.6% 20.1% 23.0% $20.00 0 0
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1 2 © 2021 Jones
Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. 2 Address: 3675 Corporate Dr Size: 18,172 Tenant: WOW Type: Renewal 1 Address: 3 Easton Oval Size: 18,731 s.f. Tenant: Northwest Bank Type: New Lease 4 Address: 191 W Nationwide Blvd Size: 16,630 s.f. Tenant: KPMG Type: Renewal 5 Address: 445 Hutchinson Ave Size: 11,075 s.f. Tenant: Maxim Healthcare Services Type: New Lease 5 4 3 Address: 5000 Bradenton Ave Size: 17,125 s.f. Tenant: Weltman, Weinberg & Reis Type: New Lease 3 Leasing in Q1
5.
© 2021 Jones
Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Construction This dashboard analyzes office developments >20,000 s.f. Total available at delivery (%) 49.0% Total leased at delivery (%) 51.0% Average floor plate (s.f.) 20,750 Average number of stories 4 Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) $29.50 Notable 12-month deliveries Building Submarket RBA (s.f.) Delivered Leased at delivery (%) Pt at Polaris II Polaris VanTrust 145,000 Speculative Q4 2020 41% 4131 Worth Ave Easton The Georgetown Company 98,769 Speculative Q3 2020 61% The Hayden Capitol Square Tomko 82,103 Speculative Q4 2020 26% Bridge Park Block D Dublin Crawford Hoying 81,456 Speculative Q4 2020 44% Reach on Goodale Arena District Elford 66,243 Speculative Q1 2021 68% Total pre-leased (%) 41.3% Total under construction (s.f.) 1,334,374 Total under renovation (s.f.) 77,000 Average floor plate (s.f.) 26,929 Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) $29.25 Notable projects under construction Building RBA (s.f.) Estimated delivery Pre-leased (%) Scioto Peninsula Phase I Franklinton Daimler 230,938 Speculative Q3 2022 19% CoverMyMeds Bldg 1 Franklinton Cambridge Holdings 220,000 BTS Q3 2021 100% CoverMyMeds Bldg 2 Franklinton Cambridge Holdings 193,600 BTS Q1 2022 100% Gravity 2.0 Franklinton Kaufman 167,000 Speculative Q4 2021 0% Arlington Gateway Upper Arlington Continental Real Estate 134,375 Speculative Q1 2023 0% Owner/developer Spec or BTS Submarket Under construction/renovation 1,411,374 Under construction/renovation (s.f.) At a glance Upcoming deliveries by type (s.f., excludes YTD completions) Spec/BTS Owner/developer Historical completions Deliveries At a glance 91,243 YTD deliveries (s.f.) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 BTS Speculative 488,085 669,256 304,176 587,029 91,243 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2021
6.
© 2021 Jones
Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Sales Noteable sales transactions Building address Seller Size (s.f.) Sales price $ p.s.f. Sale date 65 E State St Group RMC Hertz Investment Group 495,000 $36,800,000 $74 Oct-20 625 Africa Rd VEREIT DHL International 145,000 $33,100,000 $228 Mar-20 3100 Easton Square Pl Viking Partners Colony Capital, Inc. 199,264 $18,600,000 $93 Jan-21 380 Polaris Pkwy Champion Cos Daimler 110,000 $15,750,000 $143 Dec-20 6670 Perimeter Dr Dublin 6670 APL RKC Hammes Partners 50,238 $14,500,000 $289 Jan-21 2800 Corporate Exchange Dr IMC Real Estate Joseph Skilken Realty 117,674 $5,600,000 $48 Oct-20 501 W Schrock Rd 5005 Horizons Dr LLC Walnut Limited II, LP 60,665 $5,575,000 $92 Dec-20 355 E Campus View Blvd Lawrence Solomon Real Capital Solutions 80,017 $3,822,000 $48 Nov-20 Number of owner-user sales 1 Transactions details Buyer Average price per square foot Sales volume by submarket (s.f.) Number of sale-leasebacks 0 Q1 2020 - Q1 2021 Sales volume by building type Total volume ($) $133,747,000 Total volume (s.f.) 1,257,858 Number of transactions 8 Number of investment sales 7 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 Capitol Square Polaris Easton Westerville Grandview Worthington Dublin 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 $0 $55,000,000 $110,000,000 Class A Class B Total volume ($) Total volume (s.f.) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Class A Class B
7.
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 2010 2012 2014
2016 2018 YTD 2021 Historical sublease vacancy (s.f.) Sublease availability by size (# of availabilities) Available sublease space by submarket (s.f.) Sublease availability by lease expiration (s.f.) Top sublease availabilities Current sublease availabilities 69 Available sublease space 1,123,770 s.f. Sublease vacancy 3.0% Sublease rent discount 2.5% Median sublease size 17,006 s.f. Average remaining lease term 52 months Fundamentals This analysis includes available sublease space with at least one year of term remaining. Coworking space was excluded. © 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Sublease 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 Easton Westerville Worthington CBD Gahanna Airport / I-670 Dublin Polaris Grandview Property Term s.f. Rent ADS Easton Dec 2031 240,000 TBD 4590 E Broad St Dec 2027 103,161 TBD 220 W Schrock July 2024 100,800 $14.00 MG 775 Taylor Rd Aug 2024 87,500 $16.00 FS 825 Tech Center Dr Mar 2022 34,310 $15.00 MG 400 W Nationwide Jan 2027 29,000 TBD 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 8 spaces 5 spaces 19 spaces 17 spaces 20 spaces ≥ 35,000 s.f. 20,000-34,999 s.f. 10,000-19,999 s.f. 5,000-9,999 s.f. < 5,000 s.f.
8.
Job growth* Job growth
by sector* Historical employment Industrial employment* Employment by industry *Represents 12-month change in employment. All charts represent the latest economic data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics as of March 2021. © 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Economy 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nonfarm employment Unemployment -22,500 -10,900 -4,400 -3,100 -2,400 -1,900 0 500 500 6,100 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 Leisure & Hospitality Government Educational & Health Services Other Services Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities 21% 16% 16% 15% 8% 8% Trade, Transportation & Utilities Professional & Business Services Government Educational & Health Services Financial Activities Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Mining, Logging & Construction Other Services Information 6.2% U.S. unemployment -6.0% U.S. 12-month job growth 4.7% Columbus unemployment -3.5% Columbus 12-month job growth 5.3% Ohio unemployment -5.5% Ohio 12-month job growth -35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Professional and Business Services Information Government Financial Activities -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Columbus U.S.
9.
Sam Stouffer Senior Research
Analyst +1 614 460 4419 sam.stouffer@am.jll.com Andrew Batson Senior Vice President, Research +1 216 937 4374 andrew.batson@am.jll.com About JLL JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. JLL shapes the future of real estate for a better world by using the most advanced technology to create rewarding opportunities, amazing spaces and sustainable real estate solutions for our clients, our people and our communities. JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of $16.6 billion, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of more than 91,000 as of December 31, 2020. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit jll.com. About JLL Research JLL’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis and insight through market-leading reports and services that illuminate today’s commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities. Our more than 400 global research professionals track and analyze economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries, producing unrivalled local and global perspectives. Our research and expertise, fueled by real-time information and innovative thinking around the world, creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions. © 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Contact For more information, please contact:
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