Victor Farlie's opening keynote at Jisc WBL ACL Conference, 28 March 2024

1. JISC Conference
Technology Innovation & Success:
Making sense of the future....
Vic Farlie
Exec Chair LWBLA
28th March 2014

2. Why me?
• Every time I change job the organisation keeps
getting smaller…………………….
• Should my 15 year old son be giving this
presentation?
• What’s the point of the LWBLA

3. What does the LWBLA do?
What we deliver is……………..
• Networking & Information
What we value is our ………...
• Transparency & Advocacy
In future we will promote…..
• Showcasing & Services

4. Making sense of our future
• The future for London’s economy?
• A looming fiscal crisis for Post-16 education?
• Can we survive - if so how?
• How important is technology in all of this?

5. London’s Economy: it’s business
structure
Business
Size
No of
Employees
% off all
businesses
Employment % of
Total
Turnover
£ m.
Share of
Total
No
employees
615,995 76% 660,000 15% 49,516 5%
Micro (1-9) 156,965 19% 578,000 13% 123,925 14%
Small (10-
49)
27,185 3% 520,000 11% 135,196 15%
Medium
(50-249)
4,940 1% 497,000 11% 121,186 13%
Large
(250+)
1,345 0.2% 2,227,000 50% 471,704 52%
Total 806,430 100% 4,482,000 100% 901,527 100%
London Councils - March 2014 Source: Business Population Estimates, BIS

6. London’s Economic ‘crane index’
• London’s employment rate has risen to 71.3 per cent – one of the highest
employment rates for London since 1992.
• London accounted for 29 per cent of the increase in the UK’s total
employment in the quarter to December 2013.
• Nearly a third of this rise occurring within the professional, scientific and
technical sector alone.
• The number of jobs in London stood at 5.353 million in the three months
to September 2013 (the highest since this measure began in 1996).
• London’s ILO unemployment rate in the three months to December 2013
was 8.1 per cent. This is down 0.6 percentage points on the previous
quarter and down 0.4 percentage points on the year.
Source: GLA Economics February 2014

7. Uneven spatial implications of
London’s changing labour market
• Core inner London Boroughs net employment
grew during the recession.
• Over 50% of new jobs assume/require a
degree as an entry level requirement.
• Suburbs with structural unemployment in
significant areas of North and South London.
• Are there Boroughs failing to educate and
employ - Croydon?

8. Some philosophical questions
• What’s the point of public policy in the
absence of public money ?
• Can institutional freedom + technology
resolve the complex trade off between ‘wants
and needs’?
• What shape will London’s education be in 10
years time?

9. Who said:
“it is not the strongest or the most intelligent
that will survive but those who can best manage
change.”
Charles Darwin

10. London’s Post – 16 education Today
Annually allocated over £1bn of tax payers
money on Post 16 education providers across:
• 400+ secondary schools.
• 40+ independent FE Colleges.
• 100+ apprenticeship providers.

11. London’s has 2 Vocational Pathways
• 80% classroom based.
• 20% work based.
But
• 75% at or below level 2.
Source; OECD 2013; A Skills beyond School Review of England (Page 19).
• London has the wrong balance and range of
vocational offer not the wrong funding model
‘per se’.
• Yet Apprenticeships are 5% only the funding
‘cake’.

12. London’s Looming Fiscal Crisis in Post-
16 education.
• Not one budget cut but the aggregation of
accumulated reductions in funding per learner
continuing over the next 4 years.
• Delivery models that require higher levels of
expenditure to sustain both direct and indirect
costs.
• Customers voting with their feet in an era
commentators describe as ‘rampant
gentrification’.

13. Investment in Technology: A
transitional model
Traditionally:
• Designed to reduce costs.
• Drive qualitative improvement in the service
offer.
• Invest in organisational ethos.
Giving way to
Transformative:
• Radical structural change.
• New organisational models.

14. London by 2024: My prediction
• London’s LEA’s shrink down from 32 to
between 5 and 8 sub-regional commissioning
areas.
• The number of independent FE Colleges
shrinks to under 20.
• Employers and businesses routinely purchase
training from specialist vocational experts.
• Self funding is the primary driver of
learner/customer decision making.