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Future of Work and Skills by Dr Martin Rhisiart, University of South Wales - University Alliance Summit 2015

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Future of Work and Skills by Dr Martin Rhisiart, University of South Wales - University Alliance Summit 2015

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Future of Work and Skills
Presentation by Dr Martin Rhisiart, University of South Wales
at University Alliance Summit 2015, Anticipation. Disruption. Excellence.
4 June 2015
University of South Wales

Future of Work and Skills
Presentation by Dr Martin Rhisiart, University of South Wales
at University Alliance Summit 2015, Anticipation. Disruption. Excellence.
4 June 2015
University of South Wales

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Future of Work and Skills by Dr Martin Rhisiart, University of South Wales - University Alliance Summit 2015

  1. 1. University Alliance Summit, 4th June 2015 Dr Martin Rhisiart, Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation, University of South Wales The Future of Work: trends, disruptions and implications for HE
  2. 2. The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030. Context and Brief The UK Commission for Employment and Skills is a publicly funded, industry led organisation providing strategic leadership on skills and employment issues in the four home nations of the UK. Overall aim of the study to “enable key groups in the UK labour market to position themselves effectively by building their understanding of key emerging trends and the implications for the future of jobs and skills for the medium to the long term (up to 2030).” Strategic foresight/futures project – to complement quantitative research (Working Futures labour market projections) Not prediction but structured anticipation 2
  3. 3. Guiding questions for the project What are the main assumptions regarding the future global economic development and performance of UK jobs and skills? What are the potential future disruptions? Which key factors are driving the development of jobs and skills in the UK? Which uncertainties do they feature? What are possible and plausible pictures of the future of UK jobs and skills, and how might they develop? What are the scenarios’ implications for the key actors in the field of UK jobs and skills? 3
  4. 4. Study Methodology 4 • Evidence-based approach • 13 trends and 10 disruptions • 23 interviews • 12 key factors • 3-4 projections of alternative future developments for each key factor • Consistency analysis • 4 scenarios • 7 economic sectors • 4 stakeholder groups • Derivation of strategic implications and action needs Key Factor Analysis Projec ons Development Scenario Construc on Scenario Wri ng What are the key trends and disrup ons that affect the UK labour market un l 2030? What are the main factors that influence the subject? What are plausible developments of each key factor? Key Factors (KF) KF + Projec ons Raw Scenarios Dra Scenarios What are consistent combina ons of projec ons? PR 1 KF 1 PR 2 PR 3 PR 4 PR 1 KF 2 PR 2 PR 3 PR 4 PR 1 KF 3 PR 2 PR 3 PR 4 KF 1 KF 2 KF 3 PR 1 KF 1 PR 2 PR 3 PR 4 PR 1 KF 2 PR 2 PR 3 PR 4 PR 1 KF 3 PR 2 PR 3 PR 4 Environmental Analysis Which important factors will influence the future development of UK Jobs and Skills? Influencing Factors IF 1 IF 4 IF 7 IF 10 IF 2 IF 5 IF 8 IF 11 IF 3 IF 6 IF 9 IF 12 Implica ons & Ac on Needs What are key implica ons for stakeholders in the labour market? Sector Sector Sector Jobs Impl2 Skills Impl4 Impl6 Impl1 Impl3 Impl5 Implica ons and Ac on Needs Trend and Disrup on Report UKCES WS UKCES Confe- rence What are possible paths towards these futures? Trend and Disrup on Report Steps Guiding Ques on Outcome
  5. 5. Trends Shaping UK Jobs & Skills to 2030 5 The UKCES trend radar • Demographic change, especially an ageing population • Growing diversity, representation of gender and ethnic groups • Rising insecurities in long-term household income perspectives, including income and regional inequalities • Growing desire for better work-life balance • Changing work environment, shaped by ICT, outsourcing, internationalisation and the need for greater flexibility • Converging cross-discipline technologies, particularly the combination of biotechnology, information and communications technology, nanotechnology and cognitive science • Digitalisation of production: automated and additive manufacturing processes, involving 3D printing • ICT development and the Age of Big Data, the power of digital devices and the potential to capture and use vast amounts of data • Changed economic perspectives, particularly the volatility and uncertainties in the period post the 2008 crash • Shift to Asia, growing economic power and influence of countries in the East • New business ecosystems: generating value by creating new business relationships and cooperating in networks • Growing scarcity of resources and ecosystem services: finite environmental resourced pressurised by current models of development • Decreasing fiscal scope for political action: the focus on austerity and debt reduction limits resources for education and skills initiatives.
  6. 6. Trends shaping jobs and skills - examples 6
  7. 7. Four Scenarios for Work 2030 7
  8. 8. Scenario 1: Forced Flexibility 8 Greater business flexibility and incremental innovation bring the UK economy back on the growth path - but flexibility is often gained at the expense of the low skilled. Key Elements • Volatile world economy • Business flexibility and innovation bring growth back to the UK economy • Hourglass shaped labour market • Security of employment is important – but also work life balance • Wide variety of education and training channels Implications for Skills • Demand for medium to high technology literacy • Combine technical or e-skills with business skills • Analyse and use vast amounts of data • Entrepreneurial and self-organisation skills • Decreasing demand for many rote skills
  9. 9. Scenario 1: Forced Flexibility 9 Short Vignette: Fashination – The Future of Showrooming Key implications Entrepreneurism as a lifestyle: demographics; micro-preneurism Collaborative business models and project-based employment: project management; risk management; marketing; negotiation
  10. 10. Disruptions challenging Jobs & Skills 2030 10 The UKCES disruption* radar • Reverse migration • Changing values of employees, where workers select employers on the basis of alignment with own values • Fragmented zero-hour contracts • Anytime, anywhere skills delivery, enabled by virtual and peer-to-peer learning • Artificial intelligence and robots, penetration of AI and automation into highly skilled occupations • De-globalisation • Geographically alternative centres of excellence, the UK’s leading position in key economic sectors lost to high growth economies • Disrupted Internet developments • Resource conflicts/climate disasters threaten supply • Partial fragmentation of the EU * Disruptions represent a significant divergence from or a marked acceleration of current trends or expected developments
  11. 11. Examples of disruptions 11 UK: 35 per cent of jobs are at high risk of automation (Osborne, Frey, Deloitte, 2014) Resilience against computerisation: •Creativity •Social intelligence •Perception and manipulation
  12. 12. Scenario 3: Skills Activism 12 Innovation in technology drives automation of professional work, leading to large-scale job losses and prompting an extensive government-led skills programme Key Elements • Steady incremental economic growth after a slow recovery process from 2008/9 crisis. • Tech innovation hollows out professional work • Government proactively provides skills support • A project-based economy develops • Health and social sector and micropreneurism offer job opportunities Implications for Skills • Learn new skills quickly • Creativity and problem solving skills • Cross-discipline skill-sets • Data management, analysis and visualisation skills • Decreased demand for some professional skills
  13. 13. Scenario 3: Skills Activism Short Vignette: Meta-Accountability Quality Assurance by MGPC Key implications Recombination with technical validation skills demographics; micropreneurism Rise of the cyber doc Smart factories
  14. 14. Key messages 14
  15. 15. Key messages 15
  16. 16. Some implications for Universities 16 • Four generational workplaces – significant opportunities • Automation/computerisation: threats and opportunities • Core skills + interdisciplinary • Project and networking skills • Business model innovation? Delivery, MOOCs and beyond • Specialisation vs. diversification: the importance of related variety
  17. 17. 17 Reports https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/jobs-and-skills-in-2030

Editor's Notes

  • Frey and Osborne (2013) developed methodology to assess susceptibility of computerisation, applying it to US data set with 702 occupations (SOC). Approx 47 per cent of US employment is at risk of computerisation over the next decade or two

    Frey and Osborne, Deloitte (2014) similar study for the UK. 35 per cent of jobs are at high risk of automation, 43 per cent at low risk

    Finland: 2014 study (ETLA) suggests one third of jobs is susceptible to computerisation in the next 10-20 years

    Creativity, social intelligence, perception and manipulation tasks

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