JFF Bettersworth 11-22-11

MICHAEL A. BETTERSWORTH
@BETTERSWORTH
MICHAEL.BETTERSWORTH@TSTC.EDU

Credentials That Work Update
Texas State Technical College

Monday, December 5, 11

Burning Glass Example


EMSI Career Coach Example

3

Evolving Real-Time LMI Tools

Labor/Insight™

6

It’s Not About the Tools
It’s What We Do With the Tools


Student*Labor*Market*Outcomes**

Tradi&onal*LMI* Data0driven*
Decisions*
Real0&me*LMI*

Demand*
•  Educa'on*enrollees* •  Qualiﬁed*job*referrals*
•  Educa'on*completers* •  Improved*placements*
•  Unemployed* •  New*hires** •  Improved*employer*
•  Employed* •  Replacement*hires** rela'onships*
•  Improved*counseling*
tools*

Supply* Strategic*
Alignment*

8

Doing Stuff With Real-Time LMI

PLACEMENT) CURRICULUM) FORECASTING)

•  Iden/fy)Hiring)Employers) •  Iden/fy)Current)Skills) •  Iden/fy)Emerging)Skill)&)
•  Find)Job)Openings) Needed)by)Industry) Occupa/ons)
•  Connect)Students)to)Jobs) •  Compare)to)Exis/ng)TSTC) •  Find)Hiring)Employers)
•  Analyze)Regional) Oﬀerings) For)Interviews)
Demand) •  Setup)New)Employer) •  Form)Recommenda/ons)
•  Engage)Ac/ve)Employers) Capstones) Based)on)Market)
•  Recruit)Hiring) Demand)
•  Setup)Internships)
Companies)to)Advisory) •  Drive)New)Curriculum)
•  Obtain)Scholarships)
CommiNees) Investments)

9

Why Real-Time LMI?


Class of 2006

Move d Back Home.
67% Salary.
$3 0,000 S tarting

Sources: Twentysomething Inc, John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development

Class of 2009

n Gradu ation.
70 % Joble ss Upo
ed Back Home.
8 0% Mov
Starting Salary.
$ 27,000 Debt.
$ 23,000 Average

Sources: CollegeGrad.com, New York Times, Heldrich Center for Workforce Development

Class of 2010

d Back Home.
85% Move
verage Debt.
$27,200 A

Source: Twentysomething Inc

Student Loan Debt Now Exceeds Credit Card Debt


Cost of Higher Ed Rising


Tuition Rising Faster Than Other Indices

Source: MyBudget360

College Costs Expected to Continue Increase

Source: College Board

Appropriations Down, Tuition Up
Annual Percentage Changes in State Appropriations for Higher
Education per Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Student and Changes in
Inflation-Adjusted Tuition and Fees at Public Four-Year Institutions,
1980 81 to 2010 11

Source: College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2011, Figure 10A
URCE: The December 5, 11
Monday, College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2011, Figure 10A.!

Disconnect Between College Costs & Earnings
Since 2000, in real terms college costs are now up by 23%
Since 2000, in real terms real pay for college graduates is down by 11%

Ratio


Growing Student Loan Debt


Student Loan Debt Growing Rapidly

Sources: New York Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Student Loan Debt Only Sector Increasing

Source: Federal Reserve

The Next Government Lending Bubble


Unprecedented Gov’t Student Loan Lending


Student Loan Volume & Balances Up

Sources: Equifax, Moody’s Analytics

Defaults Rising


Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent

Source:

DOE National Student Loan Default Rates

“The cohort default rate is the percentage of borrowers who enter
repayment in a fiscal year and default by the end of the next fiscal year.”

Source: US Department of Education. OSFAP

Default Rates at For-Proﬁts Much Higher

Source: Information for Student Aid Professionals (IFAP)

“According to unpublished data obtained by The Chronicle, one
in every five government loans that entered repayment in
1995 has gone into default. The default rate is higher for loans
made to students from two-year colleges [31%], and higher still,
reaching 40 percent, for those who attended for-profit
institutions.”

Source: Kelly Field. Chronicle of Higher Education. “Government Vastly Undercounts Defaults”. July 11, 2010


You Can Run, But You Can’t Hide
The Government Can:
• Garnish up to 15 percent of take-home pay without a
court order for a borrower who is 12 months behind
on student loan payments.
• Intercept federal and state income tax refunds and
lottery winnings.
• Offset up to 15 percent of Social Security disability
and retirement benefit payments.

FACTOID
~72,000 federal student loan borrowers filed for
bankruptcy in 2008. Twenty-nine (.04%) succeeded in
obtaining a full or partial discharge of their loans.
You’re more likely to die of cancer or in a car crash
than to have your loans discharged in bankruptcy.

Why Real-Time LMI Now?


You Have To: Gainful Employment Disclosures
As of July 11, 2011, each program that falls
under these regulations is required to report:
• Occupations, SOC codes, links to occupational
proﬁles on O*NET

• Costs – tuition/fees and books/supplies (may include
additional costs)

• On-time graduation (completion) rate for each
program

• Job placement rate for students completing each
program (if currently required by state or accrediting
body)

• Median loan debt incurred by students as provided
by ED (identiﬁed separately as Title IV loan debt and
private educational loan debt)


Need to Inform Relevant Education Decisions


Harder Hitting than 2001 Recession


17 Million Underemployed in US
Over 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees (over 8,000 of them have
doctoral or professional degrees), along with over 80,000 bartenders, and over 18,000
parking lot attendants. All told, some 17,000,000 Americans with college degrees are
doing jobs that the BLS says require less than the skill levels associated with a bachelor’s
degree.

Source: Richard Vedder. Chronicle of Higher Education. “Why did 17 million students go to college”. October 20, 2010


The colleges that most students
attend "need to streamline
their programs, so they
emphasize employability.”

Anthony P. Carnevale
Director, Georgetown Center
Georgetown University

“At the post-secondary level,
we need a concerted effort to
link work and learning by
providing far more
opportunities for work-based
learning.”

William C. Symonds
Director, Pathways to Prosperity
Harvard Graduate School of Education


Accountability: Coming to a Campus Near You

What’s Measured What Counts

Enrollments Placement Rate
Demographics Earnings
Contact Hours Student Satisfaction
Course Completion Employer Satisfaction
Graduates New Companies
Numbers of Awards Return on Investment
Award Levels Value to Taxpayer
National Benchmarks Efﬁciency
Activity Performance


“If you can't make
people employable,
they are not going
to participate fully
in the life of their
times in this
system.”

Anthony P. Carnevale
Director, Georgetown Center
Georgetown University

JFF Bettersworth 11-22-11

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JFF Bettersworth 11-22-11