This document summarizes a presentation on climate change given to the Michigan Energy Forum. It addresses the following key points: - The presentation discusses the four central questions around climate change: is it occurring, what is causing it, what will be the consequences, and what should we do about it. - It reviews evidence from the IPCC and other scientific studies that warming trends are unequivocal and human activity is extremely likely the dominant cause of warming since 1950. - Examples of effects like rising temperatures, sea levels, and shrinking glaciers and ice sheets are presented. - The presentation discusses potential economic and environmental consequences of climate change if left unaddressed. - It argues that transition

1. Michigan Energy Forum:
A Pragmatic Approach to Climate
Change
January 6, 2014

2. Ann Arbor Spark
Michigan Energy Forum
Henry Pollack
University of Michigan
6 February 2014

3. Four central questions:
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Is the climate changing?
What is causing it?
What will be the consequences?
What should we be doing about it?

4. The 2013 IPCC Assessment
“Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, and since the 1950s,
many of the observed changes are
unprecedented over decades to
millennia. The atmosphere and ocean
have warmed, the amounts of snow and
ice have diminished, sea level has
risen, and the concentrations of
greenhouse gases have increased.”

5. Relative to 1951-1980 mean
Global surface temperature anomalies
5

6. September 1979

9. Jakobshavn Glacier and Greenland Ice Cap
Circa 2003

10. Jakobshavn Glacier circa 2003
10 km

11. 40 m/day

13. Observed Antarctic Warming Trend (°C/decade) from 1957-2006
Steig, E. J. et al., Nature 457, 459-462, 2009

14. Pine Island Glacier
West Antarctica
25 km
2012
2012

16. A. Shepherd et al. Science 2012; 338:1183-1189

17. Robert Rhode: Global Warming Art

18. The 2013 IPCC Assessment
This evidence for human influence has
grown since AR4. It is extremely likely
(>95% probability) that human influence
has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th
century. century.

19. Global Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Boden et al., CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2010)

20. > 2 ppm/yr
1.5 ppm/yr
< 1 ppm/yr

21. End of century
The big inadvertent
human experiment
with Earth’s climate
Today

22. Solar Cycles

23. 80
Observed
Observed
Scenario
Projections
60
40
20
0
inches above 1992 level
centimeters above 1992 level
Global Mean Sea Level Rise Scenarios
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2012)

24. 1 meter rise

25. 1 meter rise

26. If you do not change
direction,
you will likely end up where
you are heading.
Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century B.C.E.

27. 2000
2050
2100

28. A Pragmatic Approach to Climate Change
Skip Pruss, Principal, 5 Lakes Energy
pruss@5lakesenergy.com
www.5lakesenergy.com

29. 
The EIA and IEA
forecast that world
energy consumption
will grow by over 50
percent between
2010 and 2040

2010
◦ 500 “quads”

2040
◦ 770 “quads”

30. 
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Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
192 countries are parties (United
States, Canada, Andorra, South Sudan)
Developed countries generally have target of 80 percent
reductions by 2050
Developing countries do not have prescribed targets
Capitalization of the Green Climate Fund will begin in 2014.

32. 1.
2.
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7.
8.
NREL, Renewable Energy Futures Study (4 Vols) 2012 - Renewable energy
sources, accessed with commercially available technologies, could adequately supply 80%
of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/52409-1.pdf
Deng, et al, Transition to a Fully Sustainable Global Energy System, 2012 - Sourcing 95%
of global energy needs by 2050 from sustainable energy systems is technically feasible.
http://www.wrec2011.com/docs/Keynote_paper-Blok.pdf
RMI, Reinventing Fire 2012 - A $4.5-trillion investment would save $9.5 trillion, for a 2010net-present-valued saving of $5 trillion during 2010–2050.
http://www.rmi.org/ReinventingFire
United Nations IPCC, Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation 2011- Multiple options exist for lowering GHG emissions from the energy
systems while still satisfying the global demand for energy services. http://srren.ipccwg3.de/
International Energy Agency- Clean Energy Progress Report 2011 – A clean energy
revolution is achievable through a comprehensive policy approach.
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,3973,en.html
WWF ECOFYS The Energy Report: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050 2011 – Global
transition to clean energy sources technically feasible and economically advantageous; cost
saving equilibrium by 2040; $6.5 trillion in annual savings by 2050.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&
Google – The Impact of Clean Energy Innovation 2011 – Reductions of GHG emissions by
55 – 63% with positive effects on the economy and job growth.
http://www.google.org/energyinnovation/The_Impact_of_Clean_Energy_Innovation.pdf
Jacobson and DeLucchi, WWS (Wind, Water, Solar) Plan (2 Vol), 2010 - Produce all new
energy with WWS by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the
plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic.
http://www.sjsu.edu/people/dustin.mulvaney/courses/envs133/s2/JDEnPolicyPt1.pdf

33. 
Replacement of fossil fuels for
electricity, transportation, heating & cooling, and industry
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Technical feasibility
Cost (economic feasibility)
Economic impact
Job creation
Reliability and resiliency of power supply
Availability of resources; commodity impacts
Not included: Innovation, future cost reductions, political and
social barriers
Not included: Stranded costs

34. 
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80 percent by2050 renewable electricity penetration requires
renewable energy capacity additions of 20–45GW per year
Can be achieved with existing technologies – innovation and
future cost reductions were not modeled
Costs for transmission, distribution and smart-grid
deployment are in line with recent expenditures
◦ Needed: $5.7 – $8.5 billion per year
◦ Actual (1995-2008) $2 – $9 billion per year
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Supply chain is adequate to meet technology demand
Adequate supply and demand side resources to meet hourly
demand in every region under all modelled scenarios

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3,800,000 wind turbines – 5 MW
49,000 solar thermal plants – 300 MW
40,000 solar PV plants – 300 MW
1,700,000,000 rooftop PV – .003 MW
490,000 tidal turbines – 1 MW
5,350 geothermal plants – 100 MW
900 hydroelectric plants – 1,300 MW
http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/DJEnPolicyPt2.pdf

37. 
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Geographical dispersion of variable distributed energy
resources
Use non-variable energy resources to smooth loads
Demand response management to shift flexible loads
Utility scale energy storage
EV storage
Deploy additional renewable generation resources
Produce fuel sources from excess electrical resources
Improved forecasting systems

38. International Energy Agency
forecast in 2000:
◦ Wind capacity by 2010: 34 GW
◦ 2010 actual capacity: 200 GW
World Bank China forecast in
1996:
◦ 2020:
◦ 2020:

9 GW wind
0.5 GW solar
2011 actual capacity:
◦ Wind:
◦ Solar:
62 GW
3 GW
EIA Annual Energy Outlook
in 2005:
Projected Wind Capacity:
◦ 2025 reference Case: 11.3 GW
◦ 2025 PTC Case:
63 GW
◦ 2012 actual capacity: 60 GW
Projected Solar Capacity:
◦ 2025:
400 MW
◦ 2012 actual capacity: 7.3 GW

40. 
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By 2020, up to 700,000 MWs of unsubsidized solar energy will
be at retail price parity with grid-delivered electricity.
(McKinsey & Company)
Wind energy, already at wholesale cost parity in many parts
of the nation, will be at or below the cost of all other new
electric generation resources.
Over 700 U.S. companies are now deriving 100 percent of
their electricity from green power sources, including
Intel, Kohl’s and Staples. (2013 EPA Green Power Partnership)
A survey of 100 U.S. companies with revenues in excess of $1
billion found that 60% are implementing energy efficiency
measures and 51% intend to increase company-owned
renewable generation. (Ernst and Young 2012)

45. CE non-renewable $74.40
DTE non-renewable $68.60
City of Holland wind $45.72
www.5lakesenergy.com

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Market opportunities and investment trends
Fossil fuel costs and market volatility
Energy economics
Standards and codes – ZNE
Stockholder concerns
Insurance and finance
Distributed generation
Resiliency
Sustainability
Environmental concerns
Water availability
Energy security
Climate change

47. 
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Distributed energy resources, demand-side management
technologies, and energy efficiency measures pose an
existential threat to today’s utility business models.
Customer adoption of DER and EE reduce utility sales and
spread fixed costs among declining base of ratepayers.
Investment community may react restricting access to capital
in the future.
Investor owned utilities (IOUs) face a “Kodak moment”
IOUs must identify new business models and service
paradigms
Edison Electric Institute 2013

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380,000 clean energy jobs
26% of electricity generation from renewables today
40% by 2020
Most solar deployment in the world
Successfully “reindustrialized” the German economy
Cost of wholesale electricity going down (17% in
2012)
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Bloomberg

49. www.5lakesenergy.com

50. Next Michigan Energy Forum Program:
The Michigan Energy
Entrepreneurial Ecosystem
Moderator: Todd Nelson