Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines and will take office on July 1, 2016. He has been likened to Donald Trump due to his rough, tough image, though his language and views are even more extreme. Duterte brags about his womanizing and has pledged to kill tens of thousands of criminals. However, unlike Trump, Duterte has extensive political experience as a mayor for 22 years and congressman. As president, he aims to improve lives of ordinary Filipinos, but his unpredictable style and potential approach to foreign policy, especially regarding China, remain a concern.

1. R
odrigo Duterte was elected in
May to take over as President
of the Philippines from 1st July
2016. Many commentators have likened
his rough, tough image to that of Donald
Trump but such a comparison is almost
offensive to Trump. Duterte’s utterings
would make Trump sound like a Sunday
School teacher in comparison. Duterte
brags about his Viagra-fuelled womanising,
revels in the nickname of “The Punisher”
and has run a foul-mouthed campaign,
vowing to kill 100,000 criminals and
feed their bodies to the fish in Manila
Bay. He has made jokes about raping
a dead Australian missionary and called
the Pope’s mother a prostitute. He has
also been called “Dirty Harry”, likened to
the part played by Clint Eastwood in the
movie of that name.
On the other hand, Trump is an
outsider with no political experience.
Duterte has been Mayor of Davao City,
the largest city on the island of Mindanao,
for 22 years. He is both an Arts and
a Law Graduate and was a practising
attorney for many years before entering
politics. He has also been an elected
member of the country’s Congress and
as such does not come to government
without an elected pedigree. Duterte is
an experienced leader whose crude and
outrageous style hides a cunning political
brain. His election has also revealed
much about Filipinos’ despair with what
are disdainfully referred to as “trapos”
or traditional politicians. The outgoing
President oversaw 6 per cent growth,
one of the highest in Asia, but failed to
convince ordinary Filipinos that he was
improving their lives. In this way, Duterte
mirrors Trump’s appeal in that American
people seem to be attracted to someone
who has had considerable success in
business and many believe he could do
the same in Washington.
The Philippines is a sovereign island
country situated in the Western Pacific
and has a population of 100 million
spread over some 7,641 islands
somewhere between 4 degrees and
21 degrees north of the Equator. It also
has an additional 12 million people living
overseas who make a major contribution
to the strength of the economy with
their remittances to families at home,
a boost to the economy which has no
comparator in any country that I have
studied. Of considerable concern is the
likely approach Duterte will have to
foreign policy in general and to China in
particular. The Philippines is a key US ally
standing up to Chinese expansion in the
South China Sea, where both Beijing and
Manila claim ownership to the resource-
rich Spratly Islands which are much closer
to the Philippines than to China. The
current President Benigno Aquino III who
was ineligible for re-election, recently
agreed to ramp up US troop rotations on
Philippines military bases. Manila is vital to
Washington’s “rebalancing to Asia” policy.
The big question is whether America
and the rest of the world can rely on
someone who to date has shown himself
to be a loose cannon, at least verbally,
with little training to suggest he can play a
“straight bat” to the meddling Chinese in a
game in which he is unfamiliar.
There are two good things going
at the start of the Duterte presidency.
First the macroeconomic fundamentals
are very sound. GDP growth is at 6.2
per cent or better; inflation is less than
2 per cent, budget deficit and public
debt are less than 4 per cent and 50 per
cent of GDP and the country enjoys
an investment grade credit rating in the
world’s debt markets. Second, the eight-
point economic programme drawn up
by Duterte’s economic advisers has been
well received by the business community.
He has made it plain that he will leave
the management of the economy to
professionals.
To understand the Philippines one has
to recognise the extensive gap between
the rich and the poor. The elite rarely
mix with ordinary folk, apart from maids,
chauffeurs and farm hands. The share of
Filipinos living below the national poverty
line in the first half of 2015 was 26.3 per
cent, the same as it was in 2009 before
five years of considerable economic
growth. It is against this back drop that
Duterte has made his candidacy attractive.
He most certainly understands the plight
of the poor. The big question remains as
to whether he can manage a country of
100 million people as well as he managed
the City of Davao with 1.5 million people.
It is a big ask.
66 NI Chamber
columnist
A maverick
leader
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Ian Rainey,
current CEO of
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and former
international
banker, assesses
the possibility.
President of the Philippines
Rodrigo Duterte has been
likened to ‘Dirty Harry’,
the part played by Clint
Eastwood in the movie of
that name. Picture credit:
Moviestore/Rex/Shutterstock