Latin America faces significant challenges in improving its infrastructure to enhance economic growth, with the quality of roads, railroads, bridges, and ports needing urgent attention. Major economies like Brazil, Colombia, and Peru are committing resources to close this infrastructure gap through public-private partnerships and attracting private investment. Despite recent improvements, the region's infrastructure levels lag behind developed countries, significantly affecting economic competitiveness and productivity.

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The Infrastructure Challenges in Latin America - December 2013
executive summary
Latin American economies require substantial improvement to
physical infrastructure to raise potential GDP growth.
As macroeconomic stability has been achieved in the largest
economies, the public sector now aims to prioritize microeconomic
issues.
The region’s major economies must address inadequacies in the
years to come, focusing on the quality of roads, railroads, bridges, airports, and ports.
Governments have started to prioritize the urgency of closing the infrastructure gap, by
allocating more public resources for infrastructure and pursuing public-private partnerships.
Recently, there have been important strides made, with private capital increasingly attracted
to investment opportunities in infrastructure projects in the region.
JAMESTOWN LATIN AMERICA
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www.jamestown-latam.com
Contact:
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The Infrastructure Challenges in Latin America - December 2013
When one considers the major impediments to
This paper addresses the issue of infrastructure in Latin
faster economic growth in Latin America, inadequate
America, with a focus on Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. We
infrastructure is often cited as one of the chief causes
divide the note into the following sections: 1) arguing
mentioned. Here are just a few examples and images
that infrastructure is vital to economic development;
of infrastructure constraints that occur throughout Latin
2) discussing what Latin America needs to do to
America. Transporting a good from the Colombian port
improve its physical capital; 3) highlighting what is
city of Barranquilla to the capital of Bogotá, a distance
being accomplished to improve the infrastructure in
of approximately 1,000 kilometers, can cost more
the various target countries; 4) noting the challenges
than sending it the 15,000 kilometers from China to
encountered in addressing the infrastructure deficit.
Barranquilla. Trucks containing agricultural exports
Finally, we describe the potential impact on the real
often line up for miles, unable to enter Santos port in
estate market from the infrastructure deficit and
São Paulo state of Brazil, as the port is at overcapacity.
initiatives to improve it.
1
Isolated communities in Peru are often economically
and socially disconnected from the rest of the country
because paved roads do not reach these villages.
To begin, we must define infrastructure for the purposes
of our discussion. Definitions vary for describing a
country’s infrastructure, but typically include roads/
However, there have been important advances in the
highways, railroads, bridges, ports, airports, and public
physical infrastructure of Jamestown Latin America’s
transport such as subway systems. Additionally, one
target countries (Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, and
can include electricity/power generation and quality of
Chile). Airports, such as Eldorado Airport in Bogotá
telecommunications.
and Jorge Chavez Airport in Lima, were both recently
renovated; indeed Lima’s airport has won numerous
awards for the quality of its service.2 The Brazilian
government recently privatized a majority stake of
several large airports, which should improve service.3
The interoceanic highway now connects São Paulo state
with the western coast of Peru. Governments in Brazil,
Colombia, and Peru have committed billions of dollars
to infrastructure projects and in many cases are seeking
to follow the emerging public-private partnership (PPP)
model that has achieved some success, both in the
region and internationally, in the past. Furthermore,
private capital from abroad has allocated substantial
resources recently to solving the infrastructure gap, with
private equity firms having dedicated record amounts to
infrastructure in the region this year.
There
is
high
between
clearly
a
correlation
economic
development,
competitiveness, and
GDP per capita and the
quality of a country’s
infrastructure;
this
correlation
Latin American
governments
are recognizing
the necessity of
addressing the
infrastructure deficit
in the region.
not
is
a perfect one however, as the United States is clearly
suffering from infrastructure deficiencies that have
been increasingly exposed in recent years. The World
Economic Forum’s Competitiveness report defines
12 pillars of competitiveness for an economy, with
infrastructure listed as one of the most prominent.
1 According to StratFor, a consultancy, it costs US$30 on average to ship a ton of merchandise from the interior of the country to the coast, but half this amount from a Colombian port to Asia. The total cost of
exporting a shipping container from Colombia costs on average 20% more than from Argentina for example.
2 Skytrax, a UK based commercial aviation consultancy named Lima’s airport the top rated airport in South America in 2012, for the fourth consecutive year. Edward Plaisted, Chairman of Skytrax, stated,
“A perennial favourite with passengers, other airports in the region must be wondering what they have to do to unseat Lima from this top position. http://www.worldairportawards.com/Awards_2012/
”
bestairport_samerica.htm
3 In November 2013, two additional stakes in major airports were sold: Rio’s Galeao airport, and Belo Horizonte’s Confins. R$20.8 billion were raised.
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According to the 2012-13 report, “Extensive and efficient
woeful in most measures of the quality of its physical
infrastructure is critical for ensuring the effective
infrastructure, which is a key component of the “custo
functioning of the economy and is an important factor
Brazil, or cost of doing business in the country. As the
”
in determining the location of economic activity and the
country’s economy has grown impressively over the last
kinds of activities that can develop within a country. 4
”
two decades, bottlenecks have formed on a large scale,
The report goes on to state that quality infrastructure:
thanks in part to the issues in the table below:
1) reduces the effect of distance between regions; 2)
integrates the national market; 3) connects an economy
Table 1: Brazil
country
ranking
at a low cost to markets in other countries and regions;
4) is a prerequisite for access of less developed
Quality of overall infrastructure
114
communities to core economic activities and services.
Quality of roads
120
Efficient modes of transport, whether via rail, highway,
Quality of railroad infrastructure
103
or water, enable businesses to get their goods and
Quality of port infrastructure
131
Quality of air transport infrastructure
123
services to market in a secure and timely manner.
Available airline seats (km/week)
9
Judging the quality of a country’s infrastructure can be
Quality of electricity supply
76
subjective; the aforementioned World Competitiveness
Mobile phone subscriptions per capita
45
Fixed telephone lines per capita
52
Overall ranking
71
Report
Latin American
countries rank low
in global surveys
that measure
the quality of
infrastructure.
ranks
148
countries on the basis
of a number of inputs
Source: World Competitiveness Report, 2012-2013.
presumed to influence
the
competitiveness
Similarly, Colombia rates well in terms of availability
of
an
of air seats, but the ratings highlight the country’s poor
economy.
Infrastructure
is
roads, railroads, and ports.
one of the pillars as
mentioned
above.
Table 2: colombia
country
ranking
Unfortunately Latin America does not stack up well
compared to the other regions across the globe in terms
Quality of overall infrastructure
117
of infrastructure. Brazil is rated 71st for its infrastructure,
Quality of roads
130
Colombia 92nd, and Peru 91st. While this report should
Quality of railroad infrastructure
113
not be considered the only means for judging a country’s
Quality of port infrastructure
110
Quality of air transport infrastructure
96
Available airline seats (km/week)
39
Quality of electricity supply
63
infrastructure, it does add credence to the view that
the quality of Latin America’s infrastructure falls well
short of developed country standards, even possibly
Mobile phone subscriptions per capita
Emerging Asia and Europe.
87
Fixed telephone lines per capita
84
Turning to the country rankings, Brazil rates well on air
Overall ranking
92
travel capacity and telecommunications, but is rather
Source: World Competitiveness Report, 2012-2013.
4 http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-competitiveness
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Meanwhile the rankings in Peru reflect a similar situation:
a reflection of decades of underinvestment in the
physical capital base of the countries. In prior decades,
Table 3: peru
country
ranking
low levels of public investment were a function of
economic
underdevelopment,
and
incapable
and
101
inefficient public administrators. When these countries
Quality of roads
98
lacked macroeconomic stability, it was impossible
Quality of railroad infrastructure
102
to attract meaningful private capital to infrastructure
Quality of port infrastructure
93
Quality of air transport infrastructure
development projects; furthermore, when sovereign
85
Available airline seats (km/week)
40
Quality of electricity supply
73
Mobile phone subscriptions per capita
93
Fixed telephone lines per capita
87
backdrop has changed, and governments can be more
Overall ranking
91
active in infrastructure development. Cost of capital for
Quality of overall infrastructure
Source: World Competitiveness Report, 2012-2013.
balance sheets were overly leveraged, the public sector
had limited capability to dedicate resources to the
building of roads and ports. More recently, the macro
the public and private sector in Latin America has fallen
markedly, allowing for deeper and more varied methods
The World Bank also publishes data on a number of
of financing infrastructure projects.
infrastructure-related categories, which allow a further
As Latin American countries have become wealthier,
quantitative assessment of how Latin America stacks up
with established middle classes, world class exporters
versus the rest of the world and its Emerging Market
of commodities to Asia, and larger populations, the
peers. Here is a sampling of statistics:
deficit has become particularly pronounced – and the
• The percent of total roads that are paved in Brazil is
necessity to address the deficiencies has become more
14%, as of 2010. This compares to 23% in Chile, 36%
for Mexico, and 100% in the UK and USA. Some
other Emerging Markets: Turkey (89%), Poland (70%),
and Malaysia (80%) display much higher percentages
than Latin American countries.5
• For rail lines, Brazil has 29,000 km of tracks, Colombia
under 2,000, and Peru slightly above 2,000. In
comparison, China (a similar landmass to Brazil) has
66,000 km of tracks, India (with 20% less GDP than
Brazil) 64,000 km, while Poland (similar geographic
size as Colombia and Peru and 20% larger GDP than
Colombia) possesses 20,000 km. In fact Mozambique
has more rail track, at 3,100 km than Colombia or
Peru.
Clearly, Latin America has a major infrastructure deficit,
urgent. In the cases of Colombia and Peru, there is
ample space in future
government budgets
to dedicate resources
to public investment;
Brazil faces a more
challenging
backdrop
more
fiscal
to
direct
resources
to
this need. In all cases,
financial
Macroeconomic
stability equates to
lower cost of capital
and flexibility on
the fiscal side to
fund infrastructure
projects.
resources
are still limited, which speaks to the need to carry forth
with PPPs.
The opening paragraph of this note provides some
examples of the infrastructure deficit, but the issue
5 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS
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extends beyond some of the interesting anecdotes
and Atlantic. For example, it takes 3-4 hours for an
mentioned there. A casual visitor to any of the region’s
item that arrives at Buenaventura port to reach Cali,
capitals is of course overwhelmed by traffic congestion,
even though the distance is just 78 miles. Driving from
which while obviously annoying, also entails a large
Medellin to Bogotá, the country’s two largest, cities
economic cost (in terms of lost man hours for the
separated by 274 miles, takes approximately six hours. In
workforce, additional costs of transporting goods, etc.).
other words, road quality is highly inadequate; decades
Traffic jams in cities such as São Paulo, Lima, and Bogotá
of internal conflict with the FARC and other guerrilla
are legendary. In fact many senior Brazilian business
movements have made it unfeasible to develop much
executives hop from meeting to meeting in helicopters
of the country’s national transport infrastructure but as
rather than face the
the security situation has stabilized, capital is flowing
unpredictable
traffic
into this area. When economists explain the recent
Geographical
obstacles toward
improving
infrastructure are
substantial.
patterns
São
subpar performance of Colombia’s manufacturing
may
sector, among the reasons cited – along with the
be the only city in
appreciation of the peso – is that transport infrastructure
the world where the
is inadequate and this inadequacy is highly detrimental
total amount of traffic
to the competitiveness of industry. On the positive side,
congestion,
known
however, a city such as Barranquilla has seen substantial
as lentidao, is almost continuously broadcast on the
development in recent years as the city’s last two mayors
news and in elevator videos, and can sometimes
have emphasized infrastructure investment, focused on
total into the hundreds of kilometers. While traffic
public roads, facilitating transport, and encouraging
congestion is a symptom of a growing middle class,
trade promotion.
Paulo,
of
which
6
with access to credit, stable jobs and hence the ability
to purchase autos, it is also a result of insufficient public
investment in infrastructure and a major detriment to
economic productivity in urban areas. Clearly the pace
of construction of bridges, subway lines, and highways
in a city such as São Paulo has not been sufficient to
keep pace with population growth, economic vibrance
in recent years, and the number of autos on the road.
The challenges that Peru faces in terms of improving
its infrastructure are massive, due in part to the vast
socioeconomic divide that exists between the coast
and the more remote jungles and sierra regions. Given
that nearly half the country’s GDP is concentrated in the
metropolitan area of Lima, the quality of the country’s
infrastructure is weighted toward the capital and its
immediate surroundings. Similar to Colombia, Peru’s
Beyond the topic of economic costs related to the
geography presents a major obstacle to connecting
absence of urban infrastructure, one can also observe
disparate regions of the country while it also faced
the consequences of poor connectivity within countries.
security issues in prior decades (namely from the
Colombia faces massive geographical obstacles, as
Sendero Luminoso, i.e., Shining Path movement), which
within its borders there are Andean mountain ranges,
made development of large-scale projects in certain
dense jungle, and ultimately coastline with the Pacific
parts of the country unfeasible.
6 On November 14, 2013, a record of 309 km in total traffic congestion occurred in São Paulo, as Paulistas headed out of town for a three day weekend. http://www.tribunahoje.com/noticia/83853/brasil/2013/11/14/
so-paulo-tem-lentido-recorde-com-309-km-de-filas.html
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The Challenges – country by country
Brazil
Ask any Brazilian economist what is most needed to
raise the country’s potential GDP growth, and improved
infrastructure ranks high on the list of responses. In
The Financial Times recently published a survey
describing some of the challenges that Brazil faces
regarding infrastructure.7 Below are some telling figures
and statistics from this report and other sources:
• The asset stock of Brazil’s infrastructure is equal
to 16% of GDP versus the global average of 70%,
short, Brazil has invested well short of what is necessary
according to a McKinsey study.
to update and modernize its physical infrastructure, and
this has created important bottlenecks that affect all
• On an annual basis, Brazil invests just 2% of its GDP
in infrastructure which, according to Credit Suisse
major sectors of the economy.
economists, is half the amount needed to sustain 4%
Domestic demand has been strong for years, and
annual GDP growth. In comparison, China invests
combined with incentives provided by the government,
13% of GDP in infrastructure, Colombia 6%, and India
has led to a massive surge in car ownership. Yet as any
5%.
visitor to São Paulo or Rio can attest, traffic congestion
has worsened dramatically because the pace of urban
• São Paulo has a
infrastructure development, i.e., roads and subways,
population
40%
has not kept pace with the population growth and
greater
than
increased number of cars on the road. Meanwhile as
London
Brazil has become an export powerhouse in recent
metro has 1/6 the
years, the port capacity has also not kept pace with
capacity of that in
this growth. Given the large geography of the country,
the UK capital.
in the best of times it would be a challenge to link the
• On
yet
average
its
it
For years, Brazil’s
investment in
infrastructure has
been inadequate,
a prime cause of
GDP growth below
the regional average
in recent years.
various regions of the country by rail and highway; but,
takes a container
as demand for agricultural products from the hinterland
ship 21 days to
has soared, exporters have encountered greater
clear Santos port in São Paulo state; in comparison,
challenges moving their goods to market. Perhaps the
according to global shipping company Maersk, in
most instructive example of infrastructure deficiencies
Rotterdam it takes just two days.
relates to mining giant Vale, which actually built its
own railroad in the northeast region of Brazil to move
• Over the last decade, annual light vehicle sales rose
by 2.5x, yet the number of paved roads increased by
its iron ore to port rather than relying on government
just half.
to do so. In a nutshell, for Brazil to burst through the
low GDP growth equilibrium that it now experiences,
It is estimated that Brazil has double the dependence
infrastructure improvement is the number one priority;
on road transport that the United States does, due to
a massive program to improve roads, ports and so on
its inadequate railroad infrastructure. In fact President
would lift potential GDP remove bottlenecks, lower the
,
Dilma Rousseff, when recently officiating at a railway
custo Brazil and also reduce inflation.
project in Mato Grosso, stated that Brazil was “two
centuries” behind with regard to building rail networks.8
7 http://www.ft.com/intl/reports/brazil-infrastructure-2013. September 9, 2013.
8 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f2296aa8-2373-11e3-98a1-00144feab7de.html#axzz2l6cRF8XI. September 9, 2013.
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As the economy has expanded and developed over
Group, which operates, according to some surveys,
the past decade, the government has recognized the
the highest quality airport in the world in Singapore,
inadequacy of the current infrastructure. In 2007, the Lula
paid R$19 billion, (for a 51% stake) or four times the
administration launched PAC (Programa de Aceleracao
minimum bid, for Rio’s Galeao Airport.9 The Aerobrasil
de Crescimento), a program with a four-year budget
group formed by Brazilian construction company CCR
through 2010 equivalent to R$650 bn. The Rousseff
and the operators of the Zurich and Munich airports paid
administration followed up with PAC 2, a R$965 bn plan,
almost R$2 billion for Belo Horizonte’s Confins airport,
of which over 1/3 has already been invested. However,
or double the minimum bid for the 30 year concession.10
according to the Financial Times survey, just R$33 bn
One issue that the government has faced with regards
of PAC 2 has gone into infrastructure, with a greater
focus on energy and housing. Since the initiation of the
first PAC program, only R$101 bn has been dedicated
to infrastructure, a reflection of the government’s
inability to properly execute investment plans related to
infrastructure.
to the auction of highway concessions relates to
allowing adequate rates of return; to attract private
investment, the government faces a tug of war between
keeping tariffs low on toll roads and allowing the private
sector an ample internal rate of return. One auction in
fact attracted no bidders since the government did not
More recently, the government has moved forward with
allow an IRR deemed sufficient by potentially interested
a program intended to allow greater involvement of the
parties.
private sector in infrastructure development. Its R$133
For Brazil to make inroads will require involvement of
bn intended concessions program is meant to construct
7,500 km of toll roads and 12,000 km of railroads. Other
tenders will also include light rail and bus lines. There
have been examples of success so far via the auctions
of
participation
various
The current
administration has
had some recent
successes, especially
the privatization of
several airports.
in
airports.
In
2012, majority stakes
in
airports
in
São
Paulo, Campinas, and
Brasilia
were
sold
to private operators
who assumed shares
from Infraero. These
auctions
raised
R$24.5 billion in 2012, attracting prominent international
bidders. More recently, on November 22nd, control of
Rio’s international airport and Belo Horizonte’s were
successfully auctioned. Singapore’s Changi Airport
the private sector and improved implementation from
the notoriously bureaucratic public sector. The current
PT government has had, at times, a less than amicable
relationship with parts of the private sector; but there
are signs that the current Administration is looking to
provide adequate incentives to encourage more privatesector involvement in infrastructure development.
Delays are natural for these types of projects. But on the
positive side, as Itau's economic team writes:
“There is no shortage of investment opportunities.
In addition to large sports events such as the World
Cup and the Olympic Games, there is the need for
infrastructure updates and crude oil exploration in
pre-salt fields. Favorable dynamics in government
debt create room for increases in public investment.
Additionally, equilibrium interest rates are lower than in
the past. Hence, investments (as a share of GDP) should
increase to about 20% of GDP and the expansion in the
9 The Economist, “Taking off at last: Some serious private money for airports and roads, November 30, 2013.
”
10 http://www.aviationpros.com/news/11247976/brazil-gets-9-billion-in-airport-auction, November 25, 2013.
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The Infrastructure Challenges in Latin America - December 2013
capital stock will likely be the main driver of growth in
on which construction is expected to be initiated within
the next few years.
”
the next couple of years. The total investment required
is over US$12 billion for these projects. They include
peru
electric trains in Lima that would presumably alleviate
Peru’s economy has been the region’s fastest growing
congestion in the capital, docks at Callao port near
over the last decade, among major economies, despite
Lima,
– not due to – its infrastructure. A sampling of figures
facilitate the transport
provides some information which highlights the urgency
of minerals, and a
of the matter:
number of highways
• According to national statistics agency INEI, 88% of
that would penetrate
the
homes in rural zones lack adequate sanitation.
• Over half of rural homes lack access to clean water.
• The
country’s
estimated
infrastructure
needs
which
less
would
accessible
regions
of
the
country. From a real
estate
Peru’s economy has
been fast-growing,
despite major
bottlenecks related
to subpar ports and
roads.
perspective,
between 2012-21 amount to US$88 billion, over 1/3
improved capacity at
of annual GDP
.
the port of Callao can result in substantial demand for
• While for 2007-12 the budget for infrastructure grew
warehouse space and logistics. Over the 2013-16 time
17% on an annualized basis, the country has a history
period, public investment in infrastructure is estimated
of inefficient execution of public investment. Notably
to total over US$43 billion, equal to 20% of annual GDP;
36% (total of 69 bn soles) of the resources intended
this compares to US$27 billion in the prior four years.
for public investment projects between 2005-12 were
Peru’s improving economic track record should help it
never utilized according to the Ministry of Economy
attract more foreign capital for infrastructure projects
and Finance.
under its PPP framework. The country’s senior economic
Along with a lack of financial resources until recently,
officials have held numerous roadshows throughout
Apoyo Consultoria, a local economic consulting firm,
Europe, the US, and Asia, in recent months, in a bid
also notes lack of human capital to carry out projects,
to further deepen relations with institutional investors.
and inadequate rules and regulations to attract capital.
While there are questions about the ability of public
Apoyo recommends that the state moves from providing
officials to carry out these projects, the overall macro
infrastructure to becoming a purchaser and regulator
backdrop and business environment in Peru looks to be
of infrastructure services while also following the PPP
supportive of the attempts to attract private capital into
model.11
infrastructure projects.
However, there are some signs of improvement, as Peru
Colombia
has a long list of infrastructure projects in its pipeline.
Apoyo Consultoria provides a list of 17 major projects
– nine highways, four ports, one airport, and two
railroads – that are either in phases of construction or
Colombia
faces
major
geographic
obstacles
to
improving its infrastructure. For years, the interior of
the country faced security issues, causing the country’s
major cities to lack the internal transport links that
11 Apoyo Consultora, “Cuatro medidas para incentivar el uso iniciativas privadas confinanciadas, September 2013.
”
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exist in most other countries. Meanwhile geographical
of the decade, with potential growth likely to increase
barriers add to the complexity. Colombian territory
from 4.6% currently to 5.3% by 2024 as a result.12 With
includes the Andes mountain range, dense jungle, and
the improved highway network, according to official
inaccessible coastlines. According to a recent survey of
sources, the estimated time to transport items from
the Colombian economy by the Financial Times, Luis
Bogotá to Medellin would be reduced by 28%, while
Carlos Villegas, the head of the national industry group,
from Bogotá to Cali there would be a 27% improvement,
likens the infrastructure deficit to a 10%-15% tax on
26% from Cartagena to Bogotá, and 33% from Cali to
business.
Cartagena.13 Vehicle transport costs between cities
While the Colombian
The current Santos
administration
is dedicating
increased resources
to infrastructure,
especially roads and
highways.
government has been
investing only 0.6%
would fall between 16%-30%. Currently the government
is looking to move forward with these concessions in
the next few months.
of GDP in transport
Aside from the planned improvements to roads,
and communications,
there are also expectations that the country’s minimal
this
is
railroad system will be expanded. The government’s
rising and the level
plan includes railroads from Bogotá to the Caribbean
of
of
coast, theoretically linking the economic center of the
percentage
execution
infrastructure projects
country with the main ports serving the United States
is showing some signs of improvement. According to
at Barranquilla and Santa Marta (and a function of the
the Agencia Nacional de Infraestructura, between 2011-
accompanying free trade agreement between the two
14 investment in infrastructure should reach 1.2% of
countries).
GDP by the public sector alone. While 3 trillion pesos
Overall the government aims to invest US$100 bn in
were invested in infrastructure in 2010, it is expected
that up to 9 trillion will be dedicated to infrastructure
investment this year overall.
infrastructure by 2021, and as Luis Fernando Andrade,
director of Agencia Nacional de Infraestructura says,
“Nowhere else in the world is there such an ambitious
Fortunately
as
the
security
situation
The country’s infrastructure plan focuses first on
program. 14
”
highways as roads account for 80% of internal
improves, the government can divert resources away
transportation in Colombia. According to the Ministry of
from defense toward more productive uses such as
Transportation, the next generation program to develop
capital projects.
highways would add 8,000 km of roads, 1,200 of which
In addition, there is a focus on improving the infrastructure
would be two-laned. A four-lane road from Bogotá to
Buenaventura, which will cost US$4 bn is a highlight of
this plan. Another top priority is connecting Medellin
directly to Pacific and Caribbean ports. As these
highways are constructed, the government estimates a
1%-2% direct and indirect influence on GDP over the rest
along the country’s rivers. Semama magazine recently
described plans to invest 2.1 trillion pesos, or around
US$1.1 billion in new ports along the Magdalena River,
Colombia’s most important, as well as on maintenance
of canals and on dredging of them. River transport in
Colombia can be a more efficient method of transporting
12 At a seminar around the IMF meetings in Washington in October 2013, Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas also mentioned that potential GDP for Colombia could increase by 0.7% per annum if certain
infrastructure projects were realized.
13 The aforementioned FT survey quotes a truck driver who states that the 410 km between Bogotá and Cali can take 14 hours, on one of the “better routes.
”
14 www.ani.gov.co provides information on the country’s infrastructure plans.
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The Infrastructure Challenges in Latin America - December 2013
goods, given the aforementioned challenges that the
of at least 60 km/h. On top of funding from FONDES,
country’s geography presents. Semana reports that it
private capital will be invested alongside, via debt and
costs US$3,200 to move a container from the center
equity, from the firms that win bidding processes, as
of the country to the Atlantic ports, but just US$1,800
part of a PPP model.
if transported by the Magdalena River. A concession
will be auctioned, via a PPP format with the national
Final thoughts and impact on the real estate market
government, local governments, and state oil firm
For Latin American economies to increase their level
Ecopetrol to make these improvements. Investment in
of productivity and potential GDP growth, lifting the
ports is also a prime focus for the Caribbean coastal
quality and quantity of infrastructure is a necessity.
cities of Cartagena, Santa Marta, and Barranquilla,
Inadequate infrastructure has become a political issue
thanks to the emergence of the free trade agreement
too, as the recent protests in Brazil showed. The next
with the United States. For example, the port capacity
half decade will be crucial as governments have drawn
at Cartagena is expected to double by 2017, to move 5
up proposals for improving infrastructure; whether
million containers per year, thanks to expansion plans.
private sector concessionaires will provide the capital
Investors in the industrial space are already expressing
remains to be seen.
growing demand for warehouses to attend to this
Furthermore, efficient
increase port capacity.
public administration
Additionally, the government is looking to privatize
is mandatory for these
assets as a way of financing infrastructure development.
projects to be carried
In the first half of 2014, the government intends to
out in a timely and
sell-off its participation in utility firm Isagen, which is
transparent manner.
expected to raise US$2.6 billion. The proceeds of the
There is a long path
sale would then be transferred to the National Fund for
ahead. Logistics costs
Infrastructure Development (FONDES), a vehicle which
as a percentage of GDP for the region dwarf those in
can then spend the proceeds on infrastructure without
other major economies: for Peru 32%, Brazil 26%,
negatively impacting the central government’s fiscal
Colombia 23%, Mexico 20%, and Chile 18% compared
position.15 Eventually funds raised from potential sales
to 10% for the United States and 9% in the OECD. The
of the government’s stake in Ecopetrol could also fund
upside for the region is that if even semi-adequate
FONDES.
infrastructure can be established, the potential returns
According to a recent Global Source report, FONDES
over the long run can be huge in economic terms.
will become a crucial vehicle to support the success of
Despite the mixed outlook on infrastructure, there are
the upcoming wave of road infrastructure projects to be
impressive achievements occurring. For example, Rio
developed through public-private partnerships, better
de Janeiro’s landscape is changing, in anticipation of the
known as the “4G program”; the main goal of the 4G
World Cup and Olympics. Specifically, the city accounts
initiative is to give Colombia a set of strategic highways
for over R$2 billion of funds earmarked for urban
through which trucks will be able to travel at a speed
transport from the government’s credit line for World Cup
Positive strides are
being made, but
investments take
years to mature and
impact economic
outcomes.
15 Escobar, Andres and Veronica Navas. Global Source Partners Monthly Report. “Boring Race, Known Outcomes. Section titled “Selling assets to build new ones, December 2, 2013.
”
”
16 Financial Times, “Rio’s Olympic deadline forces transport upgrades, September 10, 2013.
”
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transport projects.16 The state government is investing
paved roads versus total roads, more kilometers of rail
R$8.5 billion to double the capacity of underground rail
lines, and increased numbers of subway lines.
that connects Barra, which will host the Olympic village,
with the rest of the city. The city of Rio has dedicated
another R$5.6 billion to an express bus system which
will connect disparate areas such as the Galeao airport
with Barra and Santa Cruz. In Lima, the city government
is also in the midst of an ambitious infrastructure
development plan. One new metro line is slated to be
completed in 2014, with other additions to Metro Linea
2 scheduled for 2019.
Infrastructure
improvements can
literally change the
face of certain cities
and shift trends of
demand for real estate
to certain areas.
Additionally, the city
has embarked on the
construction of five
new lines of electric
trains,
totaling
130
km of track, according
to
Consorcio
Eletronico.17
number
of
Tren
A
new
highways are under construction, many under the PPP
format, intended to ease the city’s notorious congestion
as estimates show that the number of autos in the
Lima metro area will reach 1 million by 2017, double
the level of 2002. One major project is the Via Parque
Rimac requiring US$700 million dollars of investment
connecting the port area of Callao with Javier Prado,
one of the major thoroughfares in the central city.
While the track record of infrastructure improvements in
Latin America is poor, and skeptics can point to years of
failed attempts to improve roads, ports, airports, etc., the
next half decade will be particularly telling, to determine
if the region’s major economies reverse years of
disappointment in this area. One can point to a number
of ways to measure infrastructure improvements,
ranging from increased public investment to GDP
,
growing capacity of airports, larger percentages of
For the real estate investor in Latin America, closing
the infrastructure deficit has important ramifications—
both macro and micro. On the macro side, clearly if
infrastructure improvements are realized, potential
GDP growth will increase. Substantial improvements
to these countries’ capital stock would raise potential
GDP by 1% per year according to the estimates of
various economists. Higher GDP of course means
more productive businesses, more demand for labor,
additional job creation, and higher standards of
living; these all positively impact real estate demand.
Since these countries are starting from a low base,
even marginal improvements to infrastructure can
have outsized benefits for economic activity – and
hence demand for real estate. Improved business
competitiveness and productivity, all things equal,
should boost real wages.
On the micro side, greater connectivity within cities would
also result. Better urban transport can enable people to
live further away from their jobs. For example, in São
Paulo there is great demand for finance professionals to
live near Faria Lima, the financial district. If there was a
better urban transport network, this could allow finance
professionals to live further away and hence the trends
of demand for real estate could shift as a result. Urban
plans and zoning could be potentially adjusted, and the
idea of suburbs would develop further.
If urban infrastructure could be improved, we would
expect lower price differentials between locations with
proximity to the central business district and more
dispersed locations. For example in São Paulo, prices
of residences near the central business district can
command prices 2x-3x those located 10 kilometers away
due to the massive challenges of public transport and
17 Apoyo Consultoria, “Inversiones en Transporte en Lima, December 2012.
”
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traffic. The same phenomenon occurs in Lima where
in the southwest region of the city, near the financial
prices in San Isidro and Miraflores have appreciated
and business districts of Faria Lima, Avenida Paulista,
dramatically, in direct correlation with the increase
and Berrini tend to be priced 40%-50% above the city’s
in traffic congestion in that city. Thus far, these urban
average, partially for their proximity to the workplace,
agglomerations have centered around the business
and this trend could be exacerbated further if urban
and financial centers and extended outward; aside from
transport is not improved enough to meet demand. We
Santiago and Buenos Aires, where public transport is
see similar trends emerging in cities such as Bogotá
generally better than the rest of the region, we have yet
and Lima; prices in higher end areas such as Rosales
to see true suburbs emerge in major Latin American
in Bogotá and San Isidro in Lima have outperformed
urban areas. In the United States, we see that cities with
the city average thanks to their close proximity to the
good urban connectivity tend to exhibit smaller price
central business districts in each city; if infrastructure
gaps between central business locations and suburbs.
constraints are aggravated we would expect this gap to
This is not to suggest that all suburbs of a city such as
widen. Another trend that has evolved in São Paulo is
New York exhibit prices similar to Manhattan. But for
the increased demand for microapartments, as young,
example, Greenwich, CT which has a train that connects
urban professionals sacrifice space – these units are
professionals to Grand Central Station in New York in
typically 35-45 square
under 45 minutes has an average home price of $1.1
meters – for the ability
million (versus $1.6 million for an average dwelling in
to walk to work, hence
Manhattan).
18
Vienna, VA is connected to Washington
avoiding
extremely
DC by that city’s metro line. The average home in Vienna
long
sells for $865,000, compared to $480,000 in the nation’s
times.
capital, and $1.2 million in Georgetown, the ritziest
microapartments
neighborhood of Washington.
has
If infrastructure remains sub-standard, we can also
Given poor
standards of urban
transport, residents
of certain cities pay
large premiums for
proximity to offices.
the Avenida Paulista
commute
A
series
emerged
of
near
identify some impacts. As mentioned, traffic congestion
business center.
in major Latin American capitals is a major urban issue,
Lack
due in part to inadequate highways, roads, and public
congestion, also impact zoning regulations. In São
transportation. If we see continued inability to improve
Paulo, specifically, the current mayor has pushed in
subways, roads, and other urban transport, there will
the direction of fewer high density projects that are not
be even stronger demand from urban professionals to
in close proximity to public transport. Furthermore, as
live near their places of work, especially in a city such
new transport nodes are being developed over time, the
as São Paulo. As mentioned above, those who work in
city’s urban plan will allow for higher density projects
the financial center of Faria Lima tend to prefer to live
that are near these points. Consequently, there may be
near their office, to avoid long commute times. This
fewer new developments in the future in areas without
has pushed up the value of property in neighborhoods
immediate access to public transportation, while more
with close proximity to Faria Lima. Indeed homes
supply can be expected in zones that are located near
of
infrastructure,
and
the
resulting
traffic
18 Based on figures provided by Zillow.com.
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subways, bus lines, and other transportation. This concept has been implemented in a number of cities across the
globe, such as Los Angeles, where new high density development zones are placed around transport hubs.
Table 4: Planned infrastructure improvements to Rio de Janeiro
Transport mode
From/to
% of work
complete
Trans Oeste
BRT (express bus)
Jardim Oceanico / Santa Cruz
Trans Carioca
BRT (express bus)
Barra / Deodoro
Trans Olimpica
BRT (express bus)
Int'l Airport / Ipanema
Trans Brasil
BRT (express bus)
Light rail
Metro
VLT
Line 4
cost
(R$ mn)
budget executed
(R$ mn)
100
900
700
70
1,600
800
0.5
1,550
70
Santos Dumont Airport / Santa Cruz
0
1,500
0
Downtown area
0
1,164
0
Connects to line 1 at Ipanema
32
8,500
2,600
Source: Rio Negocios, Rio Municipal Secretary. Rio 2016.
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