Business opportunities of moderate to even light complexity often expose decision makers to hundreds, if not tens of thousands, of coordinated decision options that should be considered thoughtfully before making resource commitments. That complexity is just overwhelming! Unfortunately, the typical response is either analysis paralysis or "shooting from the hip," both of which expose decision makers to unnecessary loss of value and risk. This tutorial teaches decision makers how to tame option complexity to develop creative, valuable decision strategies that range from "mild to wild" with three simple thinking tools.
Small Business Decision Analysis: A View from the TrenchesRobert Brown
Dr. Bush and I describe our experience applying the principles of decision analysis to small business, which typically do not have access to as many informed resources as larger organizations where decision analysis is more routinely applied.
Published in "Decision Analysis Today," newsletter of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society, Volume 29, No. 1, April 2010, pg. 16.
Seven Steps to Better Brainstorming - by Kevin Coyne & Shawn Coyne - McKinsey...Steven Duque
Most attempts at brainstorming are doomed. To generate better ideas—and boost the odds that your organization will act on them— start by asking better questions.
This presentation is based on two books - "The Leader's guide to Radical Management" by Stephen Denning and "Joy Inc" by Richard Sheridan. The problems of Traditional management, and the shift towards Radical management along with Innovative practices followed at Menlo Innovations are covered in this presentation.
Future of Design in Start-Ups Survey 2017 Albert Lee
We launched the Future of Design in Start-Ups survey last year to set a baseline for how design operates in the tech ecosystem and also to begin to track what value is created by design in fast growing companies.
This year, we asked some of the same questions from 2016 to create a trailing data set. We also wanted to dig into the nitty gritty of design teams (structures, salaries, etc.) and squint at where design might be going within start-ups in the future (new skills, new mediums, etc.).
We heard responses from over 350+ companies and this is a summary of what was shared. A sincere thank you to all those that responded!
Steve Denning: Radical Management Vortrag am Internet-Briefing Sep13-2011Walter Schärer
‘Radical Management’ is a set of 5 principles. There are only two types of organizations: The ones that love and delight their customers and the others. Amazon, Apple, Salesforce are organizations that have succeded despite fierce competition due to delighted customers.
What’s their management principles?
Speech by Stephen Denning at Reto Hartinger’s Internet Briefing in Zurich.
Small Business Decision Analysis: A View from the TrenchesRobert Brown
Dr. Bush and I describe our experience applying the principles of decision analysis to small business, which typically do not have access to as many informed resources as larger organizations where decision analysis is more routinely applied.
Published in "Decision Analysis Today," newsletter of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society, Volume 29, No. 1, April 2010, pg. 16.
Seven Steps to Better Brainstorming - by Kevin Coyne & Shawn Coyne - McKinsey...Steven Duque
Most attempts at brainstorming are doomed. To generate better ideas—and boost the odds that your organization will act on them— start by asking better questions.
This presentation is based on two books - "The Leader's guide to Radical Management" by Stephen Denning and "Joy Inc" by Richard Sheridan. The problems of Traditional management, and the shift towards Radical management along with Innovative practices followed at Menlo Innovations are covered in this presentation.
Future of Design in Start-Ups Survey 2017 Albert Lee
We launched the Future of Design in Start-Ups survey last year to set a baseline for how design operates in the tech ecosystem and also to begin to track what value is created by design in fast growing companies.
This year, we asked some of the same questions from 2016 to create a trailing data set. We also wanted to dig into the nitty gritty of design teams (structures, salaries, etc.) and squint at where design might be going within start-ups in the future (new skills, new mediums, etc.).
We heard responses from over 350+ companies and this is a summary of what was shared. A sincere thank you to all those that responded!
Steve Denning: Radical Management Vortrag am Internet-Briefing Sep13-2011Walter Schärer
‘Radical Management’ is a set of 5 principles. There are only two types of organizations: The ones that love and delight their customers and the others. Amazon, Apple, Salesforce are organizations that have succeded despite fierce competition due to delighted customers.
What’s their management principles?
Speech by Stephen Denning at Reto Hartinger’s Internet Briefing in Zurich.
We are proud to announce our fifteenth Innovation Excellence Weekly for Slideshare. Inside you'll find ten of the best innovation-related articles from the past week on Innovation Excellence - the world's most popular innovation web site and home to 5,000+ innovation-related articles.
We are proud to announce our twenty-seventh Innovation Excellence Weekly for Slideshare. Inside you'll find ten of the best innovation-related articles from the past week on Innovation Excellence - the world's most popular innovation web site and home to 5,000+ innovation-related articles.
We are proud to announce our twenty-first Innovation Excellence Weekly for Slideshare. Inside you'll find ten of the best innovation-related articles from the past week on Innovation Excellence - the world's most popular innovation web site and home to 5,000+ innovation-related articles.
Lean Analytics for Intrapreneurs (Lean Startup Conf 2013)Lean Analytics
Lean Analytics for Intrapreneurs workshop by Alistair Croll, based on Lean Analytics book and research done with dozens of large organizations on how they're using data, analytics and Lean principles to innovate and improve.
The Creative State North West hosted a Discovery Session for Creative Businesses June 7th 2012.
Dr Judy Scully, Aston Business School presented an overview of the Creative Credits B2B Innovation Vouchers. And shares the U.K. experience of match making creative and traditional businesses.
Watch the video of this presentation on http://creativestatenorthwest.com
Cognitive psychology and design, they are two closely related fields. Cognitive bias should be a powerful tool in the designer’s belt. Because we can take advantage of it.
Attached is the deck I presented at the UQ Business School during one of my visits as a guest lecturer.
In this lecture, I discuss centralised vs. collaborative decision-making approach through a case study and the share some tools to facilitate the best outcome from a decision-making process.
PLUS THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS12LikeLikeTweet 4.docxLeilaniPoolsy
PLUS: THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS
12LikeLike
Tweet 4
2
MAY 29, 2009
Document
We selected a six step decision making process that synthesized the decision making models
used in existing training, not just ethics training.
The model is descriptive of how people intuitively make decisions and makes the steps
explicit.
The six steps of this natural, intuitive decision-making process are:
• Step 1:
Define the problem (#1)
• Step 2:
Identify available alternative solutions to the problem (#2)
• Step 3:
Evaluate the identified alternatives (#3)
• Step 4:
Make the decision (#4)
• Step 5:
Implement the decision (#5)
• Step 6:
Evaluate the decision (#6)
Step 1: Define the problem
The most significant step in any decision making process is describing why a decision is called for and identifying the
most desired outcome(s) of the decision making process.
One way of deciding if a problem exists is to couch the problem in terms of what one wanted or expected and the actual
situation. In this way a problem is defined as the difference between expected and/or desired outcomes and actual
outcomes.
This careful attention to definition in terms of outcomes allows one to clearly state the problem. This is a critical
consideration because how one defines a problem determines how one defines causes and where one searches for
solutions.
The limiting aspect of the problem definition step is not widely appreciated. Consider this example.
Your company owns an old, downtown office building. Tenants are complaining that their employees are getting angry
and frustrated because there is always a long delay getting an elevator to the lobby at rush hour.
You are asked for a reaction on how to solve this problem. As with most problem situations there are several ways to
define the situation and several solutions that suggest themselves.
This scenario has been presented to over 200 groups in a training environment. The most common alternatives these
groups offered were:
• Flexible hours- so all the tenants' employees wouldn't be at the elevators at the same time.
• Faster elevators - so each elevator could carry more people in a given time period.
• Bigger elevators - so each elevator could carry more people per trip.
• Elevator banks- so each elevator would only stop on certain floors, increasing efficiency.
• Better elevator controls - so each eltor would be used more efficiently.
• More elevators - so that overall carrying capacity could be increased.
• Improved elevator maintenance - so each elevator would be more efficient.
• Encourage employees to use the stairs - so fewer people would use the elevators.
PLUS: The Decision Making Process | Ethics Resource Center
If you examine each alternative you will see that several different definitions of the problem must have existed.
• If the solution is "flexible hours" the problem must have been defined as, "Too many people getting off work at a
given ti.
We are proud to announce our fifteenth Innovation Excellence Weekly for Slideshare. Inside you'll find ten of the best innovation-related articles from the past week on Innovation Excellence - the world's most popular innovation web site and home to 5,000+ innovation-related articles.
We are proud to announce our twenty-seventh Innovation Excellence Weekly for Slideshare. Inside you'll find ten of the best innovation-related articles from the past week on Innovation Excellence - the world's most popular innovation web site and home to 5,000+ innovation-related articles.
We are proud to announce our twenty-first Innovation Excellence Weekly for Slideshare. Inside you'll find ten of the best innovation-related articles from the past week on Innovation Excellence - the world's most popular innovation web site and home to 5,000+ innovation-related articles.
Lean Analytics for Intrapreneurs (Lean Startup Conf 2013)Lean Analytics
Lean Analytics for Intrapreneurs workshop by Alistair Croll, based on Lean Analytics book and research done with dozens of large organizations on how they're using data, analytics and Lean principles to innovate and improve.
The Creative State North West hosted a Discovery Session for Creative Businesses June 7th 2012.
Dr Judy Scully, Aston Business School presented an overview of the Creative Credits B2B Innovation Vouchers. And shares the U.K. experience of match making creative and traditional businesses.
Watch the video of this presentation on http://creativestatenorthwest.com
Cognitive psychology and design, they are two closely related fields. Cognitive bias should be a powerful tool in the designer’s belt. Because we can take advantage of it.
Attached is the deck I presented at the UQ Business School during one of my visits as a guest lecturer.
In this lecture, I discuss centralised vs. collaborative decision-making approach through a case study and the share some tools to facilitate the best outcome from a decision-making process.
PLUS THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS12LikeLikeTweet 4.docxLeilaniPoolsy
PLUS: THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS
12LikeLike
Tweet 4
2
MAY 29, 2009
Document
We selected a six step decision making process that synthesized the decision making models
used in existing training, not just ethics training.
The model is descriptive of how people intuitively make decisions and makes the steps
explicit.
The six steps of this natural, intuitive decision-making process are:
• Step 1:
Define the problem (#1)
• Step 2:
Identify available alternative solutions to the problem (#2)
• Step 3:
Evaluate the identified alternatives (#3)
• Step 4:
Make the decision (#4)
• Step 5:
Implement the decision (#5)
• Step 6:
Evaluate the decision (#6)
Step 1: Define the problem
The most significant step in any decision making process is describing why a decision is called for and identifying the
most desired outcome(s) of the decision making process.
One way of deciding if a problem exists is to couch the problem in terms of what one wanted or expected and the actual
situation. In this way a problem is defined as the difference between expected and/or desired outcomes and actual
outcomes.
This careful attention to definition in terms of outcomes allows one to clearly state the problem. This is a critical
consideration because how one defines a problem determines how one defines causes and where one searches for
solutions.
The limiting aspect of the problem definition step is not widely appreciated. Consider this example.
Your company owns an old, downtown office building. Tenants are complaining that their employees are getting angry
and frustrated because there is always a long delay getting an elevator to the lobby at rush hour.
You are asked for a reaction on how to solve this problem. As with most problem situations there are several ways to
define the situation and several solutions that suggest themselves.
This scenario has been presented to over 200 groups in a training environment. The most common alternatives these
groups offered were:
• Flexible hours- so all the tenants' employees wouldn't be at the elevators at the same time.
• Faster elevators - so each elevator could carry more people in a given time period.
• Bigger elevators - so each elevator could carry more people per trip.
• Elevator banks- so each elevator would only stop on certain floors, increasing efficiency.
• Better elevator controls - so each eltor would be used more efficiently.
• More elevators - so that overall carrying capacity could be increased.
• Improved elevator maintenance - so each elevator would be more efficient.
• Encourage employees to use the stairs - so fewer people would use the elevators.
PLUS: The Decision Making Process | Ethics Resource Center
If you examine each alternative you will see that several different definitions of the problem must have existed.
• If the solution is "flexible hours" the problem must have been defined as, "Too many people getting off work at a
given ti.
Decision Making
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7 cognitive biases that impact conversion rates and how to leverage them to y...Conversion Fanatics
Our brains make mistakes. They judge. They like to take shortcuts, also known as heuristics, to process information more quickly. And our brains are swayed by biased and circumstantial factors.
A consideration of what might happen if cognitive automation reversed the underlying complexification trend of modern life with examples and sample scenario axis. The approach is then applied to appreciative inquiry and scenario planning along with a discussion of future research opportunities.
Building and sustaining ethical nonprofits toolkit (handout 1 of 1)Greenlights
Tom Sechrest, Ph.D., Program Director, Master of Science in Organizational Leadership and Ethics and Associate Dean, School of Management and Business, St. Edward's University and Ann Hume Wilson, Executive Director, Conspirare
ReadySetPresent (Decision Making PowerPoint Presentation Content): 100+ PowerPoint presentation content slides. Successful and effective strategic decision making is a guarantee to increase productivity in every workplace. Decision Making PowerPoint Presentation Content slides include topics such as: the 6 C’s of decision making, inherent personal and system traps, 10+ slides on decision trees, 10+ slides on decision making methods and tips, 4 slides on the GOR approach to decision making, 8 slides on common pitfalls in decision making, 4 slides on effective strategies in making decisions, 35+ slides on the 8 major decision making traps and how to effectively minimize each, 7 slides on different decision making perspectives, 25 slides on the 3 different types of analysis (grid analysis – paired comparison analysis, and cost/benefit analysis), 4 slides on utilizing planning and overarching questions, 4 modes of decision making and 6 factors in decision making and more!
What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesSynapseIndia
Stay ahead of the curve with our premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions. Our expert developers utilize MongoDB, Express.js, AngularJS, and Node.js to create modern and responsive web applications. Trust us for cutting-edge solutions that drive your business growth and success.
Know more: https://www.synapseindia.com/technology/mean-stack-development-company.html
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
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Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
This insightful presentation is designed to equip entrepreneurs with the essential knowledge and tools needed to accurately value their businesses. Understanding business valuation is crucial for making informed decisions, whether you're seeking investment, planning to sell, or simply want to gauge your company's worth.
Implicitly or explicitly all competing businesses employ a strategy to select a mix
of marketing resources. Formulating such competitive strategies fundamentally
involves recognizing relationships between elements of the marketing mix (e.g.,
price and product quality), as well as assessing competitive and market conditions
(i.e., industry structure in the language of economics).
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Lviv Startup Club
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to make small projects with small budgets profitable for the company (UA)
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Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
What is Enterprise Excellence?
Enterprise Excellence is a holistic approach that's aimed at achieving world-class performance across all aspects of the organization.
What might I learn?
A way to engage all in creating Inclusive Excellence. Lessons from the US military and their parallels to the story of Harry Potter. How belt systems and CI teams can destroy inclusive practices. How leadership language invites people to the party. There are three things leaders can do to engage everyone every day: maximizing psychological safety to create environments where folks learn, contribute, and challenge the status quo.
Who might benefit? Anyone and everyone leading folks from the shop floor to top floor.
Dr. William Harvey is a seasoned Operations Leader with extensive experience in chemical processing, manufacturing, and operations management. At Michelman, he currently oversees multiple sites, leading teams in strategic planning and coaching/practicing continuous improvement. William is set to start his eighth year of teaching at the University of Cincinnati where he teaches marketing, finance, and management. William holds various certifications in change management, quality, leadership, operational excellence, team building, and DiSC, among others.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
3. Tweet This Book!
Please help Robert D. Brown III by spreading the word about this book on Twitter!
The suggested hashtag for this book is #strategytable.
Find out what other people are saying about the book by clicking on this link to search for this
hashtag on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/search/#strategytable
4. Also By Robert D. Brown III
Business Case Analysis with R
7. 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Acknowledgments
• This publication includes material (C) 1983-2002 by Kenneth R. Oppenheimer.
• Thanks to Wendy Brown Davis, who generously donated the beautiful photograph of the
gray squirrel for the cover. “peek a boo, oh yeah I see you” (C) Wendy Brown Davis ∼Canon
5D Mark III & EF 70-200 mm/ f2.8 L IS II USM∼
1.2 “What Should I Do?”
A few years ago, a friend of mine asked me to help him think through how to grow his business.
He had successfully operated a small boutique professional services firm for several years at that
point, but he was concerned about the demands on his personal time, ability to save for retirement
and his children’s education, and just a sense that things were getting stale. Maybe he needed a new
strategy, he thought. As we discussed his current situation, he expressed the following concerns:
• It’s difficult to scale my company’s growth.
• It’s hard to find and keep the right people.
• My personal interest in creating a business are not yet realized.
• How can my company establish a means to generate ongoing revenue and equity value?
• How can my company make a much bigger and positive lasting effect on clients?
Once we clarified those concerns, we restated them as a strategic question.
“How can we facilitate our clients’ business development activity for maximum profit
in such a way that our clients enjoy the way they create business, we track our clients’
evolution of needs, and our services become a ‘must-have’ habit in order for my
company to grow a profitable, sustainable, and scalable business that I enjoy?”
“But how do I get there, Rob? What should I do? There are still so many decision to make. I keep
thinking about the risks and benefits of each, but I don’t quite know how to handle the complexity
of all their possible interactions.”
Usually, my clients face the very important issue of not really knowing what they want to achieve by
making decisions, but in this case my friend knew his objectives fairly well. Where he was getting
mired down was in conceiving effective ways to coordinate multiple decisions to achieve those
objectives.
8. INTRODUCTION 2
1.3 Why You Need This Tutorial
When we make decisions, we usually speak of choosing among a known set of options, a choice
between a This or a That. We may think about choosing between
• Vanilla ice cream or chocolate or the new wasabi cream flavor
• Pirelli tires or Michelin or Goodyear
• A vacation in the Bahamas or one in Las Vegas
If the options are not mutually exclusive, we may even talk about choosing between a This, a That,
or some of This and some of That. These are the simpler decisions in life. Even if they are not
routine, their consequences are usually limited in scope and magnitude. We usually address these
decisions by weighing in our mind the net effect of the relative pros and cons of each choice without
generally worrying that the consequences will be beyond our ability to handle them should they turn
out contrary to our preferences, even significantly so. If you do choose the wasabi cream flavored
ice cream and it’s just awful (as I can assure you that it actually was), it’s not an outcome you will
regret the rest of your life. You’ll gag a little and be a few dollars poorer—no big deal.
However, when we find ourselves facing complex personal or business situations, we very rarely find
ourselves limited to the choices within the scope of a single decision category. Instead, we usually
find ourselves thinking about the consequences of choosing among multiple coordinated options
across multiple decision categories. The number of potential decision options we can choose from
can lead to an overwhelming, swarming beehive of what-ifs in our minds.
For example, consider that you are a key decision maker within a company that develops biomedical
devices. Choosing whether or not to launch a new product does not usually have a simple Go or
No Go set of options. For a new product launch, you might have to think through the combined
effects of choices about a new product’s geographic distribution, pricing level, product configuration,
packaging, staging, specific disease application, etc. Each choice within a decision set generates a
set of implied consequences that, as a responsible decision maker, you ought to consider to the
satisfaction of your fiduciary responsibilities. While the associated economic analysis will represent
enough complexity of its own¹, more immediately you might face some degree of confusion about
which decision scenarios you should even consider. You will probably not have time to consider all
of them.
Just among the decision categories listed in the biomedical device situation above, there exist
hundreds, if not thousands, of possible decision scenarios worth considering. What if each of the six
categories contained three options? The decision makers would face 36
combinations (3x3x3x3x3x3)
or 729 scenarios in their analysis. What decision makers face is choice complexity, which is a
significant contributor to two common decision failures: “analysis paralysis” and “shooting from
the hip.”
¹Business Case Analysis with R provides a tutorial for modeling and communicating the complexities of business decisions under risk and
uncertainty.
9. INTRODUCTION 3
Some decision-makers forge ahead believing they ought to and can conquer the complexity by
testing every possible scenario. However, as both the number of decision sets increase or the number
of options increase, the number of testable scenarios can approach the number of atoms in the
universe! Clearly, no one will ever commit to a decision while there is always one more scenario to
test in this case. (I’m convinced that many people actually use analysis paralysis to avoid making
decisions as a CYA approach to managing their own career risk.) In the end, if anything ever gets
done, it’s usually too late to take advantage of the best part of the available value the opportunity
provides.
Unfortunately, other decision makers opt to “shoot from the hip” as they assume that their gut is a
better guide than the looming detailed analysis. Selective bias convinces them that their intuition
is usually right (Isn’t that what everyone thinks Blink! taught us?), or they reason that committing
now and fixing things later (regardless of what the unforeseen costs might be) is at least movement,
and movement is valuable for its own sake – until the bill for the unforeseen costs or unintended
consequences comes due.
Is there a reasonable way to tame the choice complexity that you face as a decision maker in your real
world, complex decision situations? There is by using three simple integrated thinking tools called a
Decision Hierarchy, a Strategy Table, and a Strategy Rationale Table. You should consider using
these tools when…
1. You experience a sense of being stuck about how to generate creative alternatives.
2. You lack a reasonable number of decision scenarios with clearly understood descriptions that
are not immediately recognized as worthy of consideration by key stakeholders, resulting in
a general confusion about what to do.
3. You face a number of decision categories, each with two or more sub-options, such that
you could reasonably combine the sub-options into a broad array of decision scenarios. The
scenarios present the potential for a broad spectrum of resultant value.
Before you use these tools, you should be aware of its limitations. It will not tell you what to do or
how to choose. It’s only purpose is to help you create choices when you are stuck and feel as if you
lack the creativity to do so with your own acumen. However, after some practice and repeated use,
you will be surprised at how creative it allows you to be with the information you have at hand. You
will come to see that the seeds of a problem solution usually lie within the definition of the problem
itself. The three tools taken together will help you define and frame the problems or opportunities
you face with greater clarity and creativity.
1.4 The Full Scope of Effective Decision-Making
“Alice came to a fork in the road. ‘Which road do I take?’ she asked. ‘Where do you
want to go?’ responded the Cheshire Cat. ‘I don’t know,’ Alice answered. ‘Then,’ said
the Cat, ‘it doesn’t matter.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
10. INTRODUCTION 4
Before I go further, I want to be clear about the value of this tutorial. It serves most effectively
within a broader, more comprehensive framework for executive decision-making. For such decision-
making to demonstrate the principles of a quality system, certain key questions need to be answered
according to a process that refines and clarifies important information to those held accountable for
making decisions prior to the commitment of resources that are intended to resolve the problem or
capture the value associated with an opportunity.
The flow chart above demonstrates a cartoon version of the process with many of the key questions
associated with each phase of clarification and refinement. We understand the process to be a
collaborative and open ended effort within a commitment to make decisions in the best interests
of the stakeholders that the decision makers have been entrusted to represent. When the leaders of
an organization adopt and incorporate this quality process into their managerial decision-making
activities, they can reasonably certify with specific warranties that they have met their fiduciary
duty of care².
²Howard, Ronald A. “Heathens, Heretics, and Cults”. Interfaces 22:6. November-December 1992. pp. 15-27.
11. INTRODUCTION 5
From the perspective of a full decision management process, this tutorial will help you satisfy a
small slice of the process and warranties described above, namely:
• Framing: “What are the decision boundaries and open decisions?”
• Warranty of Thoroughly Considered Consequences: “A creative set of alternatives are
considered.”
1.5 Definitions
Throughout this tutorial, we will use several terms that are colloquially interchangeable. To facilitate
clear communication here, we will use the following words with these stricter meanings.
1. Decision: An irrevocable allocation of a resource. A decision is not merely a mental disposition
about what you might do. It represents an actual commitment to use of time, energy, money,
or personnel.
12. INTRODUCTION 6
2. Decision type: A classification for whether a decision is policy (foregone), strategic (open for
consideration), or tactical (deferred). We will discuss this more in the section on using the
decision hierarchy.
3. Decision hierarchy: The set of decisions available for consideration in the context of the given
problem or opportunity, each element of which has been assigned to their appropriate decision
types.
4. Strategic (or Open) decision set: A decision that is being considered in the current analysis
that may contain several sub-choices. The kind of dessert one might consider prior to dinner
could be thought of as an open decision.
5. Option: one of the mutually exclusive choices available within a given strategic, or open,
decision. Blueberry cobbler, apple cheesecake, or Boston cream pie might represent the
available options in the open “dessert decision.”
6. Decision strategy: A complex decision is one in which multiple open decision sets are
considered in a coordinated manner under the effects of uncertainty. The set of selections
of given options within each of the open decisions under consideration represents a decision
strategy. For example, thinking about a dinner decision strategy might include the following
open decisions: drink, salad, meat, vegetable, dessert. The drink options might be drink{water,
wine, iced tea, Coca-Cola}. The salad might be salad{Waldorf, carrot and raisin, iceberg
wedge}; meat{beef, bbq pork, salmon}; vegetable{green beans, sweet potatoes, boiled radishes};
dessert{blueberry cobbler, apple cheesecake, or Boston cream pie}. A decision strategy is based
on the selection of one option from each open decision. The effects of uncertainty on a given
dinner decision strategy might be how much you will enjoy the combined tastes of the food
after their preparation, whether or not you will experience heartburn, or the level you will
increase your blood sugar or contribute to your continued elevated cholesterol. Some people
refer to a decision strategy as a decision scenario.
1.6 Complementary Resource: Integrated Decision
Hierarchy and Strategy Table Template
To follow this discussion more effectively and to provide you with a template that you can use
in your own organization, I have provided the three tools in an integrated Excel workbook that I
developed and use in my own client engagements. You will be able to download that file at the
beginning of the next chapter.