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11confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
22confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Jonny Protheroe
Head of Marketing Insights UK
Google
Lindsey Clay
CEO
Thinkbox
Michael Barrett
adidas GLITCH
Sally Taplin
Managing Partner
iris Concise
Sophie Lewis
Head of Planning,
iris
Chair:
Paul Bainsfair
Director General
IPA
Ben Essen
Executive Planning Director
iris
33confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Latest
thinking
from
the IPA In association with
LES BINET ADAM & EVE DDB
PETER FIELD PETER FIELD CONSULTING
NEW LEARNINGS FROM THE IPA DATABANK
MARKETING EFFECTIVENESS
IN THE DIGITAL ERA
IN F CUS
44confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
What do we mean by effectiveness?
55confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
24/10/2017
Successful delivery against business objectives.
Driven by an evidenced view of what is and isn’t working.
Active decision
making
KPIs
Consistent
measurement
Learning
culture
66confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
How is your organisation doing?
24/10/2017
Self-assessed
‘scores out of 10’
Source: IPA Culture First
77confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
However overall levels of effectiveness are falling
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Numberofverylargebusiness
effects
10 years ending
Source: IPA Databank
88confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
So what’s going on?
99confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Source: Companies; Jefferies analysis
Organic sales growth in Global Foods & HPC since Q1 2009
1 Average of Nestle, Unilever, Danone, Kraft, Mondelez, P&G, Colgate, RB & L’Oreal
(1.9%)
(0.2%)
1.4%
4.9%
6.3%
5.7%
5.0%
4.6%
3.7%
3.0%
2.2%
1.5%
2.0%
2.6%
1.6%
2.4%
2.4%
4.0%
3.2%
2.7%
2.0%
1.5%
0.2%
0.5%
0.0%
(0.1%)
0.2%
0.1%
1.5%
1.6%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.3%
5.1%
2.7%
1.8%
(0.4%)
(1.3%)
(1.3%)
(0.6%)
(0.0%)
1.1%
3.6%
4.0%
4.7%
4.0%
2.3%
2.4%
2.0%
1.9%
0.6%
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
1.7%
2.8%
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
3.5%
1.6%
1.4%
1.5%
1.2%
1.3%
1.1%
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
Volum e Price/m ix
With growth slowing, efficiency trumps effectiveness
1010confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Brands are spending less on media
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
AveESOV
10 years ending
ESOV all
ESOV long cases
Source: IPA Databank
1111confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Sales activation has grown
40% - 50%
advertising spend.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000 2015
Analogue Digital
Direct response ad expenditure (£m)
Source: Enders Analysis
Harnessing opportunities to activate immediate sales
1212confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Source: Emma Harris, IPA breakfast
86
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Months
1984 2013
65% decline in length
of agency tenures
Exacerbated by shorter tenures
1313confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Increased activation of sales, lack of investment in
brand
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
%casesreportingverylargeeffects
10 years ending
Activation
effects
Brand
awareness
growth
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
1414confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Effectiveness Unit within Marketing but separate from Insight/Analytics
Effectiveness Unit within Marketing inside Insight/Analytics
Effectiveness Unit inside Commercial Department
Responsibility split across Marketing and Insight
Responsibility split across Marketing and Insight and Finance functions
Finance are far more involved
“We are focussing
more on this now.
The budget is
as big as the capex
but has none of the
rigour”
Commercial Finance
Manager
1515confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
“Putting a financial outcome on our brand campaign is virtually
impossible, because it’s not driving a specific customer to come in and
buy xyz – it’s driving a brand halo effect.”
Marketing Finance Controller
We’re failing to justify ‘the fluffy stuff’
“I am a Finance person. I like certainty. Marketing also look at – I can’t quite
remember the name of it – something to do with brand equity. If I’m really honest
from a finance point of view I don’t give much weight to the softer ones – the brand
equity stuff.”
Finance Director. Source: IPA Culture First
1616confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Sales	uplift	over	base
Time
Source: Binet & Field 2013
Sales activation
Short term sales uplifts
Brand building
Long term sales growth
Short term effects dominate ~6 months
We need clearer distinction between short and long term levers
1717confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
“It’s about equilibrium and balance. Finance gives you an indication of
the current health of the company. The brand is an indication of the
future performance.”
Corporate Innovation and Strategy Director.
“We need to think of marketing as less of a cost centre but as a
strategic growth driver.”
Lindsey Clay, Thinkbox.
Source: IPA Culture First, iris Eff Event
We need clearer distinction between short and long term levers
1818confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
So what do we need to do?
1919confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Commit to the KPIs that matter
Methods
(
2020confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Start talking the language of finance
24/10/2017
‘If we change the
language, Financial
Directors will start
paying attention’
Jonny Protheroe, Google
2121confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Non working media
Brand halo effect
Soft metrics
Longer term spend
Asset Creation
Value/Margin protection
Levers to unlock future growth
Margin defence /Share protection
Start talking the language of finance
2222confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Pushing the effectiveness agenda forward
2323confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
98.6%99.8%
no
data
targeting
with
data
targeting
1. Move beyond
effectiveness
by increments
2424confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
1. Move beyond
effectiveness
by increments
2525confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
1. Move beyond
effectiveness
by increments
“We need old forms of measurement for new forms of
media”
Lindsay Clay, Thinkbox
“Sometimes you need to throw all the cards in the air to
try something else. Rather than optimise towards the
middle, ask yourself what was special about the top 1%?”
Jonny Protheroe, Google
2626confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
“If everyone were to
advertise effectively,
then advertising
wouldn’t be effective”
Ivan Spiegel, Snapchat
2. Treat
effectiveness as a
competitive sport
2727confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
2. Treat
effectiveness as a
competitive sport
2828confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
“For any brand with competitors,
there’s no such thing as the no-risk
option. If you don’t do it someone
else will do it…
But a small controlled experiment can
demonstrate that it can work”
Michael Barrett, adidas Glitch
Source: iris Eff Event
2929confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
“This £ spend is worth £xx in its
lifetime”
• Beyond direct sales returns
• Create proxys for long term profit growth
• Don’t underestimate the unmeasurables
• More focus on price elasticity
3. A more holistic
view of ROI
3030confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
“Don’t be too quick to judge short term measures. They tell you that you’re doing
something right now that is working. It’s ok to embrace the pragmatic within the big
picture.”
Michael Barrett, Adidas Glitch
“How do you give quantifiable value to the brand in the future? How demonstrate
its value vs quick fire returns?”
Sophie Lewis, iris
“Back in 2007 Marketing in the Era of Accountability identified the most accurate
predictor of effectiveness was likeability. That’s not a bad measure”
Lindsay Clay, Thinkbox
Source: iris Eff Event
3131confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
4. Introduce the
language of risk
and reward
3232confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
“Risk taking isn’t gambling. It’s having a culture that is prepared to
look forward and plan. If you don’t have the planning you can’t
confidently take a risk.”
Sally Taplin, iris
“Brand response means we’re doing it for brand reasons but we’ll
measure it using response metrics”
Jonny Protheroe, Google
Source: iris Eff Event
3333confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016
Jonny Protheroe
Head of Marketing Insights UK
Google
Lindsey Clay
CEO
Thinkbox
Michael Barrett
adidas GLITCH
Sally Taplin
Managing Partner
iris Concise
TODAY’S PANEL
Sophie Lewis
Head of Planning,
iris
Chair:

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Iris & IPA Eff Week

  • 2. 22confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Jonny Protheroe Head of Marketing Insights UK Google Lindsey Clay CEO Thinkbox Michael Barrett adidas GLITCH Sally Taplin Managing Partner iris Concise Sophie Lewis Head of Planning, iris Chair: Paul Bainsfair Director General IPA Ben Essen Executive Planning Director iris
  • 3. 33confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Latest thinking from the IPA In association with LES BINET ADAM & EVE DDB PETER FIELD PETER FIELD CONSULTING NEW LEARNINGS FROM THE IPA DATABANK MARKETING EFFECTIVENESS IN THE DIGITAL ERA IN F CUS
  • 4. 44confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 What do we mean by effectiveness?
  • 5. 55confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 24/10/2017 Successful delivery against business objectives. Driven by an evidenced view of what is and isn’t working. Active decision making KPIs Consistent measurement Learning culture
  • 6. 66confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 How is your organisation doing? 24/10/2017 Self-assessed ‘scores out of 10’ Source: IPA Culture First
  • 7. 77confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 However overall levels of effectiveness are falling 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Numberofverylargebusiness effects 10 years ending Source: IPA Databank
  • 8. 88confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 So what’s going on?
  • 9. 99confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Source: Companies; Jefferies analysis Organic sales growth in Global Foods & HPC since Q1 2009 1 Average of Nestle, Unilever, Danone, Kraft, Mondelez, P&G, Colgate, RB & L’Oreal (1.9%) (0.2%) 1.4% 4.9% 6.3% 5.7% 5.0% 4.6% 3.7% 3.0% 2.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.4% 4.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% (0.1%) 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 5.1% 2.7% 1.8% (0.4%) (1.3%) (1.3%) (0.6%) (0.0%) 1.1% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 4.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Volum e Price/m ix With growth slowing, efficiency trumps effectiveness
  • 10. 1010confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Brands are spending less on media 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 AveESOV 10 years ending ESOV all ESOV long cases Source: IPA Databank
  • 11. 1111confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Sales activation has grown 40% - 50% advertising spend. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2000 2015 Analogue Digital Direct response ad expenditure (£m) Source: Enders Analysis Harnessing opportunities to activate immediate sales
  • 12. 1212confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Source: Emma Harris, IPA breakfast 86 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Months 1984 2013 65% decline in length of agency tenures Exacerbated by shorter tenures
  • 13. 1313confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Increased activation of sales, lack of investment in brand 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 %casesreportingverylargeeffects 10 years ending Activation effects Brand awareness growth Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
  • 14. 1414confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Effectiveness Unit within Marketing but separate from Insight/Analytics Effectiveness Unit within Marketing inside Insight/Analytics Effectiveness Unit inside Commercial Department Responsibility split across Marketing and Insight Responsibility split across Marketing and Insight and Finance functions Finance are far more involved “We are focussing more on this now. The budget is as big as the capex but has none of the rigour” Commercial Finance Manager
  • 15. 1515confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “Putting a financial outcome on our brand campaign is virtually impossible, because it’s not driving a specific customer to come in and buy xyz – it’s driving a brand halo effect.” Marketing Finance Controller We’re failing to justify ‘the fluffy stuff’ “I am a Finance person. I like certainty. Marketing also look at – I can’t quite remember the name of it – something to do with brand equity. If I’m really honest from a finance point of view I don’t give much weight to the softer ones – the brand equity stuff.” Finance Director. Source: IPA Culture First
  • 16. 1616confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Sales uplift over base Time Source: Binet & Field 2013 Sales activation Short term sales uplifts Brand building Long term sales growth Short term effects dominate ~6 months We need clearer distinction between short and long term levers
  • 17. 1717confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “It’s about equilibrium and balance. Finance gives you an indication of the current health of the company. The brand is an indication of the future performance.” Corporate Innovation and Strategy Director. “We need to think of marketing as less of a cost centre but as a strategic growth driver.” Lindsey Clay, Thinkbox. Source: IPA Culture First, iris Eff Event We need clearer distinction between short and long term levers
  • 18. 1818confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 So what do we need to do?
  • 19. 1919confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Commit to the KPIs that matter Methods (
  • 20. 2020confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Start talking the language of finance 24/10/2017 ‘If we change the language, Financial Directors will start paying attention’ Jonny Protheroe, Google
  • 21. 2121confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Non working media Brand halo effect Soft metrics Longer term spend Asset Creation Value/Margin protection Levers to unlock future growth Margin defence /Share protection Start talking the language of finance
  • 22. 2222confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Pushing the effectiveness agenda forward
  • 23. 2323confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 98.6%99.8% no data targeting with data targeting 1. Move beyond effectiveness by increments
  • 24. 2424confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 1. Move beyond effectiveness by increments
  • 25. 2525confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 1. Move beyond effectiveness by increments “We need old forms of measurement for new forms of media” Lindsay Clay, Thinkbox “Sometimes you need to throw all the cards in the air to try something else. Rather than optimise towards the middle, ask yourself what was special about the top 1%?” Jonny Protheroe, Google
  • 26. 2626confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “If everyone were to advertise effectively, then advertising wouldn’t be effective” Ivan Spiegel, Snapchat 2. Treat effectiveness as a competitive sport
  • 27. 2727confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 2. Treat effectiveness as a competitive sport
  • 28. 2828confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “For any brand with competitors, there’s no such thing as the no-risk option. If you don’t do it someone else will do it… But a small controlled experiment can demonstrate that it can work” Michael Barrett, adidas Glitch Source: iris Eff Event
  • 29. 2929confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “This £ spend is worth £xx in its lifetime” • Beyond direct sales returns • Create proxys for long term profit growth • Don’t underestimate the unmeasurables • More focus on price elasticity 3. A more holistic view of ROI
  • 30. 3030confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “Don’t be too quick to judge short term measures. They tell you that you’re doing something right now that is working. It’s ok to embrace the pragmatic within the big picture.” Michael Barrett, Adidas Glitch “How do you give quantifiable value to the brand in the future? How demonstrate its value vs quick fire returns?” Sophie Lewis, iris “Back in 2007 Marketing in the Era of Accountability identified the most accurate predictor of effectiveness was likeability. That’s not a bad measure” Lindsay Clay, Thinkbox Source: iris Eff Event
  • 31. 3131confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 4. Introduce the language of risk and reward
  • 32. 3232confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “Risk taking isn’t gambling. It’s having a culture that is prepared to look forward and plan. If you don’t have the planning you can’t confidently take a risk.” Sally Taplin, iris “Brand response means we’re doing it for brand reasons but we’ll measure it using response metrics” Jonny Protheroe, Google Source: iris Eff Event
  • 33. 3333confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 Jonny Protheroe Head of Marketing Insights UK Google Lindsey Clay CEO Thinkbox Michael Barrett adidas GLITCH Sally Taplin Managing Partner iris Concise TODAY’S PANEL Sophie Lewis Head of Planning, iris Chair: