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IRI Ukraine Survey: September 2013
This document presents the findings of a public opinion survey conducted in Ukraine from August 27 to September 9, 2013, with a sample of 1,200 residents aged 18 and older. The survey focused on various aspects such as the direction of the country, economic expectations, acceptance of protest methods, and perspectives on integration with the European Union and customs unions. Key issues identified by respondents included unemployment, low industrial production, and corruption, reflecting the economic concerns prevalent among the population.
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IRI Ukraine Survey: September 2013
- 1. Public Opinion Survey Residentsof Ukraine August 27-September 9, 2013 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization Rating Group Ukraine with funding from the United States Agency for International Development 1
- 2. Methodology The survey wasconducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. The main sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion. Data were collected on August 27 – September 9, 2013 through face-to-face interviews with the respondents. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. The response rate was 64 percent. The sample design was a multi-stage random sample. The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the respondent. The households were selected using the random route method. • Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 27 official administrative regions (25 regions of Ukraine, Kiev and Sevastopol). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed. • Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size: • City more than one million residents • City 500,000-999,000 • City 100,000-499,000 • City 50,000-99,000 • City to 50,000 • Village • Stage three: primary sampling units were described. IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 2
- 3. MOOD OF UKRAINE IRI,USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 3
- 4. Generally speaking, doyou think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? September 2013 15% May 2013 15% August 2012 67% 69% 24% May 2012 20% 73% 13% 0% 18% 66% 13% November 2011 16% 58% 14% March 2012 18% 14% 71% 20% 40% Right direction IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 16% 60% Wrong direction 80% 100% DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 4
- 5. Over the last12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed? 1% September 2013 9% 41% 30% 17% 2% 1% May 2013 8% 46% 30% 14% 1% 1% August 2012 14% 37% 27% 15% 5% 0.2% May 2012 9% 45% 30% 13% 3% 1% March 2012 6% 39% 34% 18% 2% 18% 2% 1% November 2011 6% 0% Improved a lot 37% 36% 20% Improved somewhat 40% Stayed the same IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 60% Worsened somewhat 80% Worsened a lot UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 100% DK/NA 5
- 6. In the next12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to change? 2% 12% September 2013 27% 29% 17% 13% 0.4% May 2013 8% 38% 29% 12% 12% 2% 17% August 2012 31% 24% 11% 16% 1% May 2012 13% 35% 26% 11% 14% 1% 8% March 2012 32% 32% 15% 12% 1% Nov 2011 7% 0% Improve a lot 30% 20% Improve somewhat 32% 40% Stay the same IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 17% 60% Worsen somewhat 80% Worsen a lot UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 13% 100% DK/NA 6
- 7. ISSUES IRI, USAID, BalticSurveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 7
- 8. Do you thinkit is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms? Collecting signatures for petition, letter 76% Legal demonstrations 69% Legal strikes 27% 51% Demonstrations without permission 32% 24% Acceptable IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 11% 53% 12% 55% 13% 62% Not acceptable 9% 14% 50% 35% 8% 9% 35% 34% Strikes without permission Occupation of buildings or enterprises 22% 64% Boycott Blocking of major roads 16% 14% DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 8
- 9. Do you thinkit is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms? May 2013 Collecting signatures for petition, letter 73% 18% 64% Legal demonstrations 29% 54% Legal strikes Demonstrations without permission 7% 38% 48% Boycott 8% 40% 28% 12% 60% Strikes without permission 24% Blocking of major roads 23% 11% 63% 66% Occupation of buildings or enterprises 17% Acceptable IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 8% 13% 11% 71% Not acceptable 12% DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 9
- 10. If Ukraine wasable to enter only one international economic union, with whom should it be? September 2013 42% May 2013 37% 40% August 2012 5% 37% 32% 5% 42% 16% 18% 6% 20% May 2012 37% 41% 5% 17% March 2012 36% 43% 4% 17% November 2011 42% 0% 10% European Union 20% 40% 30% 40% 50% 60% Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 3% 70% 80% Other 15% 90% 100% DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 10
- 11. What is yourexpectation, will Ukraine and the European Union sign the Association Agreement in November 2013? Definitely yes 9% DK/NA 26% Probably yes 30% Definitely no 9% Probably no 26% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 11
- 12. Which side willbenefit more from the possible integration of Ukraine to the European Union? DK/NA 19% Ukraine 17% It is disadvantageous for both sides 8% European Union 26% It is beneficial for both sides 30% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 12
- 13. Which side willbenefit more from the possible integration of Ukraine to the Customs Union with Russia? DK/NA 16% Ukraine 8% It is disadvantageous for both sides 2% Russia 34% It is beneficial for both sides 40% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 13
- 14. If signed inNovember 2013, do you think the Association Agreement with the European Union will have positive or negative consequences for Ukraine? Definitely positive 12% DK/NA 23% Definitely negative 9% Somewhat positive 35% Somewhat negative 21% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 14
- 15. What possible consequenceswill the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union have for Ukraine in these particular areas? Freedom of movement in the European Union for Ukrainian citizens 31% 39% 8% 3% Protection of human rights and freedoms 20% Standard of living of citizens 18% 30% Fight against corruption 16% 33% 16% Protection of territorial integrity of Ukraine 15% 34% 18% Economic development 14% 35% 0% Definitely positive Rather positive IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 37% 16% 21% 21% 6% 8% 6% 19% 21% 23% 29% 7% 10% 26% 20% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Rather negative Definitely negative DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 15
- 16. How would youevaluate your attitude towards the following entities? 50% Russia European Union 41% Poland 32% 40% 45% 0% 10% Warm 8% 49% 26% United States 15% 7% 54% 20% 30% 40% Neutral IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 50% 16% 60% Cold 70% 80% 90% 3% 6% 4% 4% 100% DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 16
- 17. Which of thefollowing issues are the most important for Ukraine? (Three mentioned issues) Unemployment 55% Low industry production 44% Corruption within the state bodies 42% Control over price growth 35% Social protection for poor 30% Government incompetence 17% Crime 15% Political instability 14% Delay in salary/Pension payments 10% Relations with Russia 10% Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 7% Hryvnia devaluation 6% 5% Rights to land ownership Russian language status Russian Black Sea Navy presence Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 2% 1% 3% 1% UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 17
- 18. Which of thefollowing issues are the most important for Ukraine? (Three mentioned issues, by gender and age) Male Unemployment Female 18-29 years 30-49 years 56% 62% 61% 54% Low industry production 48% 41% 43% Corruption within the state bodies 47% 37% 44% Control over price growth 29% 39% Social protection for poor 24% 35% Government incompetence 18% 16% 34% 21% 19% 50 years and older 47% 49% 40% 42% 40% 31% 39% 24% 20% 40% 13% Crime 17% 13% 19% 13% 14% Political instability 16% 13% 16% 15% 12% Delay in salary/Pension payments 10% 11% 10% 9% 12% Relations with Russia 11% 9% 9% 10% 10% Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 5% 8% 7% 5% 7% Hryvnia devaluation 6% 6% 4% 8% 5% Rights to land ownership 6% 5% 4% 5% 6% Russian language status 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% Russian Black Sea Navy presence 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% Other 2% 4% 2% 2% 4% DK/NA 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 18
- 19. Which of thefollowing issues are the most important for Ukraine? (Three mentioned issues, by region) West Unemployment Low industry production 71% Social protection for poor Crime 11% 23% Political instability 12% Delay in salary/Pension payments 9% Relations with Russia 4% Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 3% Hryvnia devaluation 6% 39% 34% 41% 40% 30% 17% 17% 37% 32% 29% 19% Government incompetence 45% 57% 43% 28% East 65% 47% 52% 35% South 47% 37% Corruption within the state bodies Control over price growth Center 20% 11% 26% 12% 11% 7% 17% 10% 9% 14% 8% 10% 15% 10% 1% 9% 6% 3% 8% 6% 3% 8% Rights to land ownership 4% Russian language status 1% 1% 3% 5% Russian Black Sea Navy presence 0% 1% 1% 3% Other 1% 1% 1% DK/NA 2% 1% 0% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 8% 1% UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 19
- 20. What are themost important problems facing Ukraine? (Top four issues identified) 100% Unemployment Low industry production 90% Corruption within the state bodies Control over price growth 80% 70% 60% 52% 54% 50% 44% 40% 42% 54% 48% 43% 43% 50% 53% 51% 55% 39% 40% 45% 44% 42% 39% 34% 37% 30% 26% 20% 10% 0% Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine Aug-12 May-13 Sept-13 UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 20
- 21. Which of thefollowing issues are the most important for you personally? (Three mentioned issues) Control over price growth 58% Unemployment 51% Social protection for poor 40% Corruption within the state bodies 25% Low industry production 23% Delay in salary/Pension payments 20% Crime 13% Hryvnia devaluation 12% Government incompetence 8% Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 8% Political instability 6% Relations with Russia 6% 5% Rights to land ownership Russian language status Russian Black Sea Navy presence 4% 1% Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 6% 2% UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 21
- 22. Which of thefollowing issues are the most important for you personally? (Three mentioned issues, by gender and age) Male Control over price growth 52% Unemployment Female 51% Social protection for poor 18-29 years 64% 52% 51% 35% 45% 57% 65% 62% 28% 29% 22% 30% 26% Low industry production 26% 21% 25% 29% 19% 63% 34% 31% Corruption within the state bodies Delay in salary/Pension payments 21% 50 years and older 30-49 years 18% 17% 55% 22% 18% 22% Crime 14% 12% 14% 14% 12% Hryvnia devaluation 12% 11% 15% 13% 9% 6% 8% 7% 9% 9% 6% 7% 10% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% Relations with Russia 8% 5% 4% 4% 10% Government incompetence 10% Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 8% Political instability Rights to land ownership 6% 5% 3% 6% 5% Russian language status 3% 5% 4% 4% 4% Russian Black Sea Navy presence 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 5% 5% 6% 2% 2% 2% Other 4% DK/NA 3% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 7% 1% UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 22
- 23. Which of thefollowing issues are the most important for you personally? (Three mentioned issues, by region) West Center South Control over price growth 62% 53% 57% Unemployment 63% 57% East 55% Social protection for poor 35% 50% Corruption within the state bodies 26% 25% Low industry production 16% Crime 10% 24% 19% 32% 47% 19% Delay in salary/Pension payments 18% 63% 22% 39% 12% 30% 27% 22% 22% 12% 10% Hryvnia devaluation 20% 9% 4% 13% Government incompetence 10% 7% 10% 6% Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 4% 13% 2% 11% Political instability 6% 5% 3% 7% Relations with Russia 2% 4% Rights to land ownership 5% 5% 4% 6% Russian language status 3% 1% 4% 8% Russian Black Sea Navy presence 0% 1% 0% Other 1% 1% 2% DK/NA 2% 2% 2% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 9% 10% 1% 17% 2% UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 23
- 24. What are themost important problems facing residents of Ukraine? (Top three issues identified) 100% 90% Control over price growth Unemployment Social protection for poor 80% 70% 60% 56% 57% 40% 46% 41% 58% 34% 54% 54% 51% 51% 50% 59% 50% 49% 51% 36% 39% 40% 37% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine Aug-12 May-13 Sept-13 UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 24
- 25. POLITICS IRI, USAID, BalticSurveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 25
- 26. If pre-term parliamentaryelections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? September 2013 34% 34% May 2013 33% 36% 0% Definitely yes 20% Rather yes IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 40% Rather no 7% 20% 8% 60% Definitely no 19% 80% 5% 4% 100% DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 26
- 27. If Ukrainian presidentialelections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections? September 2013 38% May 2013 38% 0% Definitely yes 20% Rather yes 32% 7% 36% 40% Rather no IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 17% 5% 60% Definitely no 80% 17% 6% 4% 100% DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 27
- 28. Do you feelthat the next presidential election will be free and fair? Absolutely free and fair 2% DK/NA 16% Rather free and fair 17% Absolutely not free and fair 26% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine Rather not free and fair 39% UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 28
- 29. In the pasttwo years, has the situation in the following areas improved or worsened? Prices 74% Employment 59% Healthcare 21% 59% Economy of Ukraine 29% 50% Government competence 49% Housing and communal services 49% Agriculture Small and medium business Rights to land ownership Situation with languages 6% 43% 9% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 6% 14% 60% Stayed the same 10% 22% 21% 40% 4% 23% 53% 20% Worsened 5% 51% 17% 0% 8% 37% 17% 6% 13% 28% 30% European integration of Ukraine 12% 38% 34% Salary/Pension payments 14% 38% 35% Stability of hryvnia 8% 35% 43% 7% 5% 6% 31% 44% 8% 10% 40% Improved 3% 19% 13% 60% 3% 7% 12% 34% 45% Fight against criminality 8% 30% 47% Social protection 13% 35% 47% Political stability 6% 4% 30% 50% Relations with Russia 7% 6% 31% 54% Fight against corruption 3% 2% 10% 80% 100% DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 29
- 30. How many timesper week do you access the Internet? September 2013 28% May 2013 6% 24% August 2012 19% 6% 9% 8% 8% 9% 6% 42% 5% 47% 5% 5% 6% 5% 24% 6% March 2012 25% 4% 4% 6% 4% November 2011 19% 0% Every day 10% 6% 20% 5-6 times per week 7% 7% 30% 6% 5% 49% 2% 50% 60% 1% 54% 5% 40% 3% 56% 3-4 times per week IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 1% 57% May 2012 9% 1% 2% 70% 1-2 times per week 80% 90% 100% Less often Never DK/NA UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 30
- 31. How many timesper week do you access the Internet? Every day 5-6 times per week ALL RESPONDENTS 28 3-4 times per week 6 9 8 6 42 1 1-2 times per week Less often ALL RESPONDENTS 28 Never 6 9 8 6 DK/NA 42 1 GENDER REGIONS Male Female 32 6 11 8 6 35 2 67 8 6 48 1 AGE 18-29 years 51 West 25 57 65 Center 24 25 7 11 8 9 36 51 50 years and older 36 9 3 5 43 4 11 13 10 4 11 South 30-49 years 1 7 10 12 10 73 32 8 9 45 41 East 31 5 7 11 3 41 23 2 3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine 0% 2 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 31
- 32. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS IRI, USAID, BalticSurveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 32
- 33. Gender 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 55% Female Male 45% Age groups 100% 80% 43% 50+ 60% 30-49 40% 35% 18-29 20% 23% 0% IRI, USAID,Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 33
- 34. Education University, higher 100% 27% Non-complete higher 6% 80% Vocationalsecondary 40% General secondary 60% 40% 20% 0% Non-complete secondary 23% 4% Religion 100% 80% 9% 9% 3% 3% 2% Atheist Other 60% 40% DK/NA 74% 20% 0% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine Believe in God but don't belong to any religion Greek Catholic Orthodox UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 34
- 35. Sector of employment 100% Donot work 80% 50% 60% 1% 40% Public nongovernment sector State sector 19% Private sector 20% 29% 0% Other Occupation 100% 80% 5% 8% 8% 4% Unemployed Housewife Student 40% 20% 29% Pensioner 1% 20% 1% Higher and medium level executive White collar 24% 60% Farmer 0% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine Blue collar UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 35
- 36. Ethnicity 100% 3% 17% 80% Other 60% 40% Russian 80% Ukrainian 20% 0% Language usually spokenat home 100% 1% 19% Other 80% 60% 40% Russian 40% 20% Ukrainian and Russian equally 40% Ukrainian 0% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 36
- 37. Membership in apolitical party or nongovernmental organization 1% 100% 3% Member of nongovernmental organization 80% 60% Member of a party 96% 40% None 20% 0% Regions* 35% 30% 30% 25% 29% 22% 19% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% West Ukraine Center Ukraine South Ukraine East Ukraine *Oblasts included in each region: West Ukraine – Volyn, Zakarpartia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnitskiy, Chernivtsi Center Ukraine – Vinnitsya, Zhitomyr, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv City South Ukraine – Crimea Autonomous Region, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson East Ukraine – Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013 37