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IPICD 2019 (the value of a systems perspective)
This document provides an overview of a presentation on systems thinking and complexity as applied to policing. It discusses how policing deals with "wicked problems" and complexity on a daily basis. It encourages shifting from a problem-solution mindset to understanding the system as a whole before determining solutions. The document presents various concepts including systems thinking, bias, heuristics, limits, and case studies to illustrate how visualizing systems and understanding all influencing factors can provide a richer perspective for determining effective strategies and solutions. The key messages are to seek diverse perspectives, think critically, be aware of biases, and welcome exploring problems as complex systems rather than isolated issues.
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IPICD 2019 (the value of a systems perspective)
- 1. Seeking to understandcomplexity, systems, and how we can interact with them better… Presenter: Dr. John R. Black @ johnblack@aragonnational.com ©Aragon National Inc.
- 2. Overview/Outline 2©Aragon National Inc. Bianchi,C., & Williams, D. (2013) Introduction Terms, perspectives & understandings Thank you…. So What…What Next… Summary The idea of systems, wickedness & complexity…their value A case study… Adjusting for leaning (Bias & our shortcuts)…
- 3. The reality ofour problems today… Russell L. Ackoff Managers are not confronted with problems that are independent of each other, but with dynamic situations that consist of complex systems of changing problems that interact with each other. I call such situations messes. Problems are extracted from messes by analysis. Managers do not solve problems, they manage messes. 3©Aragon National Inc.
- 4. Why systems thinking… 4©AragonNational Inc. Albert Einstein We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
- 5. Our world isone of interconnected systems …and there are problems ! • Social Media connects one instantly, across the globe, to both real and skewed information. • A school shooting in one state combined with a mass shooting in another state across the nation has the ability to influence policy at your local agency. • In the world of health analytics, social determinants such as poverty, the ability to have transportation, and loneliness are proving to be an even greater influence on a person’s health than genetics. 5©Aragon National Inc.
- 6. These problems (your problems),require a systems approach … • The traditional approach fails when attempting to understand/solve a systems based problem. • Nonlinear, complex, wicked, or systems based challenges require a different way of thinking… we cannot use the same thinking that created the problem to solve these types of problems. • Policing is faced with system problems every day… • Use of force • Crime control policies • The balancing of governmental interests versus the right of the individual 6©Aragon National Inc.
- 7. Often this isa question of focus…so lets shift the focus. If the focus is problem --> solution mindset (linear thinking)… • The problem is reduced to a steppingstone; it is defined quickly to get to the solution. • Often creates singular focus on details with a greater chance for cognitive bias distortions. VS. If the focus is problem --> solution mindset (nonlinear thinking)… • Focus is on a dynamic and shared understanding of the system and its exploration. • Allows for understanding the problem from multiple perspectives. • Creates empathy of other perspectives. • Can allow for an initial greater awareness of biases. A Systems Approach /Perspective… 7©Aragon National Inc.
- 8. So…why this presentation? 1st…it is not going to provide the latest fad or cure-all for the problems we face as a law enforcement community. Today we are faced with complex problems that require long-term approaches, commitment, and sheer will… And even then we may not be able to solve them. 2nd …It is but the briefest of overviews, it will give you a glimpse and a way to continue forward with the concept if you feel it has value…it is not the final answer. The idea is…by adding tools to our toolbox, to include different ways of understanding the problems we face… maybe we can make the situation better and prevent the next problem. My goal is 1. To give you additional tools… 2. An alternative perspective… 3. To start & keep the conversation going… 8©Aragon National Inc.
- 9. Donella Meadows “Systems thinkerssee the world as a collection of stocks along with the mechanisms for regulating the levels in the stocks by manipulating flows.” 9©Aragon National Inc. Terms, perspectives & understandings
- 10. Mental models &Perspectives (become visible)… 12©Aragon National Inc. TED talk from Tom Wujec and his site www.drawtoast.com
- 11. A Systems Approach (Visualizations)… 13©AragonNational Inc. Recognizing that systems are built on their connections, certain visualizations lend themselves to their understanding. • Causal design loops • Stock and flow diagrams • Ishikawa diagrams (Fishbone diagrams) Some of the benefits or value of the visualizations is that they depict the interconnections in such a way that the viewer cannot walk away with the understanding that only a single thing is the cause of the current outcome or problem. Additionally, the use of these visualizations have been found to potentially increase collaboration and ownership of future solutions for strategies.
- 12. Wicked problems and the messiness… Anotherterm used, is that of “wicked problems”. This term was first proposed in 1973 from a landscape planner who was trying to figure out all of the variables when planning for such things as a city park and what it would look like, become, it’s utility and purpose 20 years later… the old model of solving linear problems simply didn’t work. Some basic principles were proposed and are still used today… 1. It’s not possible to write a well-defined statement of the wicked type of problem. 2. Wicked problems and no stopping rule, one is always searching for their solution. 3. Solutions to wicked problems are not right or wrong they are often simply better or worse in their consequences. 4. Solutions to wicked problems generate unexpected consequences over time, so how does one measure their effectiveness? 5. Every wicked problem can be considered a symptom of another problem, they are intertwined and not self-contained. 14©Aragon National Inc.
- 13. A Wicked problem… 15©AragonNational Inc. Information (pipe) is gathered, distributed, processed, and displayed to support planning and decision-making. Criminal action leads to information on crime incidents, these are reported to the CPF after a time delay. The other source of information is suspicious activity reported by patrols. The value of information for effective action decays over time. Oosthuizen & Pretorius (2016)
- 14. Bias, Heuristics, andLimits (BHL)… Bias, heuristics, and the physical limits of human performance under stress are all different yet interrelated. All potentially influence both the understanding and the outcome of an event. All have the ability to influence one’s “frame”, or perspective. Bias = is one’s leaning towards a perspective or belief. Bias in of itself is not necessarily good or bad. Often bias is confused with concepts such as prejudice. 16©Aragon National Inc.
- 15. Bias, Heuristics, andLimits (BHL)… Heuristics = think of heuristics as a shortcut or subroutine within your figurative Rolodex of possible responses. Sometimes the subroutines can save your life especially one focused on risk. Other times the subroutines may limit or constrain. 17©Aragon National Inc.
- 16. Bias, Heuristics, andLimits (BHL)… Limits = limits in this sense, are the limits of the human organism commonly associated with performance; 1. Sensory limits ( vision, hearing, attentional load, cognitive processing, motor skills, etc.)… Think force science factors in research. 2. Environmental limits (friction coefficients, temperature, ambient light, distracting stimuli, etc.). 18©Aragon National Inc.
- 17. The value ofa framework… Peter Senge Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. Is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing “patterns of change” rather than “static snapshots”. 19©Aragon National Inc.
- 18. The “Wickedness” and “Complexity”in policing… Policing is part of a social system through time and through ever-changing problems. The challenges we deal with (internal/external) involve ever-changing expectations, goals, resources, and actors. We manage things like crime rates, public expectation, compliance with outside standards, and the wellness of our employees daily yet often we have no control over the outside influences. Things and problems emerge out of the systems that are unexpected in both scale and importance. The solution we apply today is often novel, and its unintended consequences become tomorrow’s problem. In short, we deal daily with complexity and wickedness and understanding these concepts better will help us. In short, BHL will always be with us…So what now… 20©Aragon National Inc.
- 19. Adjusting for our“leaning”… 21©Aragon National Inc. John Maynard Keynes The difficulty lies, not in new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.
- 20. Bias, Heuristics, & Limits… 22©AragonNational Inc. “Leanings” Actor-LE Actor -SUBJ Observer -LE Observer -WIT Investigator Mgmt. Community, Public Bias Anchoring, Loss Aversion, Hindsight, Confirmation, Attentional, Dunning- Kruger, actor observer bias Anchoring, Confirmation, Attentional, Dunning- Kruger, False consensus, Baader- Meinhof, actor observer bias Anchoring, attentional, Primacy effect, recency effect, anchoring, confirmation, attentional, actor observer bias Primacy effect, recency effect, anchoring, confirmation, attentional, actor observer bias False consensus, Confirmation, Bias blind spot, suggestibility, implicit associations Baader- Meinhof, anchoring, confirmation, bias blind spot, hindsight, after observer bias Baader-Meinhof, anchoring, false consensus, hindsight, actor observer bias, availability heuristic, conformity bias Heuristic Availability, consistency, authority, rule of thumb, common sense, greatest risk, anomaly detection, subroutines created via training, subroutines created via experience. Limit Sensory limitations (vision, hearing, tactile, smell, taste), environmental limitations (temperature, light, surface), performance/skills limitations.
- 21. Possible mitigation strategies… De-biasing (Soll,Milkman, & Payne, 2013) Two general approaches available for debiasing decisions: (1)Debiasing by modifying the decision maker (e.g., through education and the provision of tools). Seeks to provide people with some combination of knowledge and tools to help them overcome their limitations and dispositions. (2)Debiasing by modifying the environment (e.g., by creating optimal conditions to support wise judgment). Seeks to alter the setting where judgments are made in a way that either encourages better strategies or is a better match for the decision strategies that people naturally apply. This approach accepts that there is bias, but strives to create situations in which a bias is either irrelevant or may even be helpful. 23©Aragon National Inc.
- 22. A case study… 25©AragonNational Inc.
- 23. A common approachor Perspective (Solution-centric)… 27©Aragon National Inc.
- 24. An alternative approach (Understanding- centric)… Itfocuses on creating both a rich and a shared understanding of the event prior to moving into a solution mindset… It is augmented & enhanced by visualizations that serve as a vehicle to increase and evolve knowledge and comprehension of the entirety of the event… It is not a 1/other approach. It is simply a shift in emphasis… Realizes that the event is an effect/outcome of a multitude of variables, causes, and influences... 28©Aragon National Inc.
- 25. An alternative approach (Visualizing & Understanding) … 29©AragonNational Inc. Whenever possible try to visualize systems as systems… Increase the richness and shared aspects of understanding & insight **Full views of the diagrams are in the handouts
- 26. What you willgain… • A richer and more nuanced understanding of the event and all of the factors that influence; • The actors actions, • The public’s response, • The influence of such variables as policy or training, • The ability apply solutions against relevant areas, • The ability to apply resources in a more effective manner. • Shift in focus/emphasis…asking the right question may in fact be more important than the solution. • Layered understanding…its not linear OR systems, its systems understanding and linear execution. • Recognizing that BHL may have influenced the outcome, investigating the same, and developing strategies to improve for the next time. 30©Aragon National Inc.
- 27. Albert Einstein If Ihad only 1 hour to save the world I would spend 55 minutes defining the problem and only 5 minutes finding the solution. 31©Aragon National Inc.
- 28. Applications & Value… Someexamples of the art of the possible… Change the frame, alter the perspective, focus on a systems approach recognizing that multiple causes result in effect and ultimately require solution or decision. A barricaded or suicidal subject. Changing and evolving a mindset, (as an individual or an organization). Critical Thinking. Subsequent remedial measures focusing on agency improvement. 32©Aragon National Inc.
- 29. Concrete steps and principles… 33©AragonNational Inc.
- 30. Concrete steps and principles… 35©AragonNational Inc. Think and learn to think critically… Why a critical thinker, what skills do they possess, how do they look at the world? Deductive, inference, numeracy, induction, analysis, evaluation (Delphi project) Multiple perspectives Systems thinking Diversity in thought, view of the world vs a shallow understanding of diversity Healthy skeptic Seek diverse perspective and thought… Yet, we in LE often punish such people… They slow us down, uncomfortable, cause us to question our own assumptions, not like us, don’t fit the mold…
- 31. Concrete steps and principles… 36©AragonNational Inc. Exploring and evolving via the use of subsequent remedial measures (SRM)… • SRM allow for critical reflection of incidents with a focus on future self-improvement and correction. • SRM(s) and principles as related to liability protection are well documented and in use in most major industries. • Law enforcement is still learning on how to implement sound SRM practices. Education and exploration of our individual and organizational biases (both those that are beneficial and those that may require retraining)… • Live in and swim in uncertainty, complexity, and exploration / discovery… • Cognitive codex…
- 32. Herbert Simon Human beings,viewed as behaving systems, are quite simple. The apparent complexity of our behavior over time is largely a reflection of the complexity of environment in which we find ourselves. 37©Aragon National Inc.
- 33. If I couldhave you only take away 3 thoughts… • Seek first to understand your environment and the systems in play…focus on sensemaking and exploration… • We know in today's complexity our single perspective will be lacking…the world will become more complex… • Now is the time to learn and adopt a systems approach. • Think critically whenever possible.. • Be aware of yours and others “leaning”… • There is almost always more time than you think there is to think… • Live and swim in system…welcome and seek the next question… 38©Aragon National Inc.
- 34. Address: 915 SW RimrockWay; Ste 201-403 Redmond, OR 97756 Contact Number: (+01) 503.707.5107 Email Address: johnblack@aragonnational.com ThankYou 39 “In the emerging paradigm…something new is happening… in place of individual efforts, the problem-solving process is now clearly social; in place of basing decisions on (just) facts, we base them on stories that give us a more coherent sense of meaning. In place of finding the ‘right answer’, we seek to gain a shared understanding of possible solutions (Christensen, 2009).”
- 35. References Used orConsulted Aveni, T. J. (2008). A Critical Analysis of Police Shootings Under Ambiguous Circumstances The MMRMA Deadly Force Project (pp. 44). Spofford, NH: The Police Policy Studies Council. Azar, O. H. (2014). The default heuristic in strategic decision making: When is it optimal to choose the default without investing in information search? Journal of Business Research, 67(8), 1744-1748. Barabasi, A.-L. (2014). Linked : how everything is connected to everything else and what it means for business, science, and everyday life. New York City, NY: Basic Books. Benson, B. (2016, 2019-04-23). Cognitive bias cheat sheet. Retrieved June 09, 2017, from https://medium.com/better-humans/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet- 55a472476b18 Berger, W. (2014). A more beautiful question : the power of inquiry to spark breakthrough ideas. New York, NY: Bloomsbury USA. Black, J. (2018). The relationship between data visualization and insight: An examination through the lens of critical thinking. (Doctoral dissertation), Capella University, Minneapolis, MN. Available from ProQuest Dissertation & Theses Global Black, J. R. (2016). Suicidal/Barricade Response Considerations. Graphic Aid. WCSO. Washington County Sheriff's Office. Oregon, USA. Bryant, D. J. (2006). Rethinking OODA: toward a modern cognitive framework of command decision making... Observe-Orient-Decide-Act. Military Psychology, 18(3), 183-206. Camillus, J. C. (2011). Strategy as a wicked problem. HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW, 86(5), 98-+. Christensen, K. (2009). Building Shared Understanding of Wicked Problems. Rotman, 17-20. De Fiore, A. (2014). The Insight-Driven Organization. Rotman Management(Fall 2014). De Martino, B. (2006). Frames, Biases, and Rational Decision-Making in the Human Brain. Science, 313(5787), 684-687. doi: 10.1126/science.1128356 40 Eppler, M. J. & Andreas Pfister, R. (2014). Best of both worlds: hybrid knowledge visualization in police crime fighting and military operations. Journal of Knowledge Management, 18(4), 824-840. doi: 10.1108/JKM-11-2013-0462 Fiedler, K. (2010). How to study cognitive decision algorithms: The case of the priority heuristic. Judgment and Decision Making, 5(1), 21-32. Fridell, L. A. (2017). Producing Bias-Free Policing; A Science-Based Approach. Tampa, FL: Springer. Gigerenzer, G., & Gaissmaier, W. (2011). Heuristic Decision Making. Annual Review of Psychology, 62(1), 451-482. doi: 10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346 Gordon Cone, J. (2019). Cultivating and unstuck mind: Four steps to new insights. Rotman Management(Fall 2019), 81-85. Gregory, R. W., & Muntermann, J. (2014). Heuristic Theorizing: Proactively Generating Design Theories. Information Systems Research, 25(3), 639. Hilbig, B. E. (2008). One-reason decision making in risky choice? A closer look at the priority heuristic. Judgment and Decision Making, 3(6), 457-462. Holt, R., & Cornelissen, J. (2014). Sensemaking revisited. Management Learning, 45(5), 525-539. doi: 10.1177/1350507613486422 Johnson, D. D. P., Blumstein, D. T., Fowler, J. H., & Haselton, M. G. (2013). The evolution of error: error management, cognitive constraints, and adaptive decision-making biases. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 28(8), 474-481. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.014 Klein, G. (1997). Developing Expertise in Decision Making. Thinking & Reasoning, 3(4), 337-352. doi: 10.1080/135467897394329 Klein, G. A. (2013). Seeing what others don't : the remarkable ways we gain insights (First edition. ed.). New York: PublicAffairs. Kudesia, R. S. (2017). Organizational Sensemaking Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Psychology. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/36443274/Organizational_Sensemaking. doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190236557.013.78
- 36. References Used orConsulted Lejarraga, T., & Hertwig, R. (2017). How the threat of losses makes people explore more than the promise of gains. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 24(3), 708- 720. doi: 10.3758/sl 3423-016-1158-7 Lima, M. (2011). Visual complexity : mapping patterns of information. New York: Princeton Architectural Press. Lima, M. (2015). Manuel Lima: A visual history of human knowledge. Retrieved March, 2015, from https://www.ted.com/talks/manuel_lima_a_visual_history_of_human_knowle dge#t-371736 Martin Garcia, J. (2019). Feedbacks; From Causal Loop Diagrams to System Thinking Methodology (pp. 92). Meadows, D. H., & Wright, D. (2008). Thinking in systems : a primer. White River Junction, Vt.: Chelsea Green Pub. Moore, T. (2011). Critical thinking: seven definitions in search of a concept. Studies in Higher Education, 38(4), 1-17. doi: 10.1080/03075079.2011.586995 Mousavi, S., & Gigerenzer, G. (2014). Risk, uncertainty, and heuristics. Journal of Business Research, 67(8), 1671-1678. Ockie, B., Nam, N., & Daowei, S. (2013). Addressing the Critical Need for “New Ways of Thinking” in Managing Complex Issues in a Socially Responsible Way. Business Systems Review, 2(2), 48-70. doi: 10.7350/BSR.V05.2013 Orquin, J. L., Perkovic, S., & Grunert, K. G. (2018). Visual Biases in Decision Making. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 40(4), 523-537. Oosthuizen, R., & Pretorius, L. (2016). Assessing the impact of new technology on complex sociotechnical systems. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 27(2). doi: 10.7166/27-2-1144 Palmberg, K. (2009). Complex adaptive systems as metaphors for organizational management. The Learning Organization, 16(6), 483-498. doi: 10.1108/09696470910993954 Police Executive Research Forum. (2019). ICAT Module 2. Retrieved September 12, 2019, from https://www.policeforum.org/icat-module-2 41 Rittel, H., & Webber, M. (1973). Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning. Policy Sciences, 4(2), 155-169. Ross, K. G., Klein, G. A., Thunholm, P., Schmitt, J. F., & Baxter, H. C. (2004). The Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Miltary Review(July-August), 5. Sacha, D., Stoffel, A., Stoffel, F., Kwon, B. C., Ellis, G., & Keim, D. A. (2014). Knowledge Generation Model for Visual Analytics. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 20(12), 1604-1613. doi: 10.1109/TVCG.2014.2346481 Skarzauskiene, A. (2010). Managing complexity: systems thinking as a catalyst of the organization performance. Measuring Business Excellence, 14(4), 49-64. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/13683041011093758 Soll, J., Milkman, K., & Payne, J. (2013). A User's Guide to Debiasing. Strough, J., Karns, T. E., & Schlosnagle, L. (2011). Decision-making heuristics and biases across the life span. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1235(1), 57-74. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06208.x The Systems Thinker. (2011, 2015-11-11). Systems Archetypes at a Glance - The Systems Thinker. Retrieved March 3, 2018, from https://thesystemsthinker.com/systems-archetypes-at-a-glance/ Waddell, S. (2016). Societal Change Systems: A Framework to Address Wicked Problems. The Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, 52(4), 422-449. doi: 10.1177/0021886316666374 Weisberg, R. W. (2015). Toward an integrated theory of insight in problem solving. Thinking & Reasoning, 21(1), 5-39. doi: 10.1080/13546783.2014.886625
Editor's Notes
- #3 Intro; Thank you, I know what is like and for those in the field, you have my thanks, appreciation and ongoing support. I can appreciate it because I spent 23 yrs. in LE and also 30 years in the military (unconventional warfare/special operations), often living in both worlds at the same time. Went up the ranks in both arenas, became an expert witness…and kept seeing the same thing… What I saw was a world of its interconnections and the ripple effects of actions/consequences… That understanding a situation is often more important then how we act on it… And that we often underestimate the effects and influence of the connections and intertwined effects in a problem we are dealing with, the ripples.. So, I went back to school and got my doctorate, focusing on research in how insight (understanding) shifts to decision making, and how we might become better at this thing called insightdecision. What I found was that a systems approach is needed for many of the problems you are dealing with… Some housekeeping, this will go quick-I am available to discuss any/all Some slides will be slightly different—this was to allow for a better presentation. 95% are the same, the concept and ideas are still there.
- #5 3MIN Our current and past thinking is primarily from a linear perspective and dealt with what was, referred to as tame problems. Yet, today we are more interconnected than ever and we live in an ecosystem of systems within systems. Because of this our thinking must change and evolve. I served 30 years in the military, all of which was with in the special operations community, and was continuously involved in different cultures, the interrelationships of decisions as well as how one moves from tactical to strategic thought. I was a senior instructor the military as well as taught leadership in these areas. Additionally, and law enforcement are started in patrol, and evolve my way through training, operations, made in executive management, corrections, as well as currently am a recognized expert witness in both federal and state courts on police practices, officer involved shootings, and training. Yet throughout all of these experiences, I’ve come to recognize that the way humans make decisions, is that we are more like than we are different and we must evolve our thought processes and framing in order to adapt future changes.
- #6 Take a moment to think about the effect of an incident in a limited geographical area now as compared to 20 years ago… Everything affects and is connected to everything else. We are a world of complexity, connections and are better represented visually by the idea of a web that we are of the old hierarchal or linear view of the world. As shown by Lima, we are now a web of belief and knowledge as compared to hierarchal tree of knowledge and constantly forming new connections and finding the similarity in patterns versus the older model of step down in linear connections. The human systems, the sociological aspects, now present us with problems that are managed but not solved. We prescribed treatments, similar to medicine, to the problem and observe the effects and then modify the treatment/solution… if this is the evolution should not the idea of understanding become the primary focus and similar to medicine the idea of first do no harm versus a constant focus on the one solution. For those martial artists in the audience, a similar analogy would be the choice between trying to achieve the best possible position knowing ultimately that it will result in an advantage and a potential win on the mat as compared to simply looking for the finishing move… often a strategy that results in a loss.
- #7 If all things are interconnected, and if you push on one and it ripples out throughout the system, the search for a single thing to fix to cure the ills of the system will most likely fail. Yet, it is not uncommon for management to seek the single reductionist item to solve in the illusion of fixing the problems within the system. Policing is never ending, under resourced, time pressured, and rewards the immediate and tactical thinker while often punishing the strategic thinker/critical thinker. Yet system problems require understanding first (which means slowing down, taking additional time, and critically and brutally examining ones own leanings) prior to the decision whenever possible.
- #8 Ultimately, a systems approach is a question of focus…. If the getting to the solution (the ends) is first as the goal (Solution-centric, hierarchal, linear, end state, explore only to the minimum needed), then only the min understanding necessary. Creates.. Defensiveness vs shared ownership *caution collaboration is not consensus This can causes another set of problems because the understanding aspect or exploration aspect is then over/door shut and instead the focus rapidly shifts into solutions. This mindset can cause defensiveness. Exploration & Learning VS Elimination/Solve/Move on Additionally, once decision-makers think they have understood the problem they often shift into the problem-solving, too soon and it limits the possibilities for understanding and solutions. STAY and SWIM in the problem understanding space a little longer…
- #9 Ultimately, the goal is to give you an alternative perspective… A different way of looking at things, and the permission to not be immediate in your solution. Research has shown (Doerner) that when a human imposes their solution on a complex system they have it best of 50/50 chance of making it better. Our goal should be to build the mindset and team that is ready to solve the next problem knowing that today solution will always evolve into the next problem. This is not a 1/0 ultimatum… The construction of a model is a long and costly process. It can’t be justified if there are other more simple ways of obtaining the same results. There are essentially two other ways - statistics and intuition. – Intuition has got you where you are today, so don’t underestimate it. For many problems, intuition provides the right answers, drawing on our experience and knowledge. Intuition is cheap and fast. Keep using it as often as possible. Martín García PhD, Juan. System Dynamics Fast Guide: A basic tutorial with examples for modeling, analysis and simulate the complexity of business and environmental systems. (System Thinking Book 2019) (Page 17). INNOVA BOOKS. Kindle Edition.
- #10 Think of a swimming pool, pipes and valves, inflows out flows, what is effecting the rate of flow (external) what can we do about it (adjust valves, pipe sizes, build a new pipe, circumvent the pipes, how do we know (feedback loops, gauges, etc.) are feedback lops accurate, do they measure reality, is there an unseen loop or one we don’t want to see/admit…
- #11 EBO handbook, 2006 (Give a real example from COP world next A systems thinking or approach is now accepted practice in such fields as management/decision-making, medicine, and engineering. It is also found in the after action reviews or “murder boards” in the same industries. It is interconnected, therefore it often cannot be reduced to a single cause but instead a series of interrelated causes and effects that constantly interact with each other. Interconnected systems, especially social systems such as criminal justice, mental health, or things that involve people naturally have weird, and unanticipated things occur within them… This is the idea of emergence and part of complexity theory. As a solution is applied against the system, the system adapts… Think of the human body and modifying medications over time, or how criminal tactics react to police intervention… In short the system is always dynamic and the problem is always changing therefore one must always monitor their last perspective the problem as well as ask the question what is my current perspective of the situation of today's problem.
- #12 EBO handbook, 2006 (Give a real example from COP world next A systems thinking or approach is now accepted practice in such fields as management/decision-making, medicine, and engineering. It is also found in the after action reviews or “murder boards” in the same industries. It is interconnected, therefore it often cannot be reduced to a single cause but instead a series of interrelated causes and effects that constantly interact with each other. Interconnected systems, especially social systems such as criminal justice, mental health, or things that involve people naturally have weird, and unanticipated things occur within them… This is the idea of emergence and part of complexity theory. As a solution is applied against the system, the system adapts… Think of the human body and modifying medications over time, or how criminal tactics react to police intervention… In short the system is always dynamic and the problem is always changing therefore one must always monitor their last perspective the problem as well as ask the question what is my current perspective of the situation of today's problem.
- #15 1 There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem. It’s not possible to write a well-defined statement of the problem, as can be done with an ordinary problem. 2 Wicked problems have no stopping rule. You can tell when cornucopia you’ve reached a solution with an ordinary problem. With a wicked problem, the search for solutions never stops. 3 Solutions to wicked problems are not true or false, but good or bad. Ordinary problems have solutions that can be objectively evaluated as right or wrong. Choosing a solution to a wicked problem is largely a matter of judgment. 4 There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem. It’s possible to determine right away if a solution to an ordinary problem is working. But solutions to wicked problems generate unexpected consequences over time, making it difficult to measure their effectiveness. 5 Every solution to a wicked problem is a “one-shot” operation; because there is no opportunity to learn by trial and error, every attempt counts significantly. Solutions to ordinary problems can be easily tried and abandoned. With wicked problems, every implemented solution has consequences that cannot be undone. 6 Wicked problems do not have an exhaustively describable set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into the plan. Ordinary problems come with a limited set of potential solutions, by contrast. 7 Every wicked problem is essentially unique. An ordinary problem belongs to a class of similar problems that are all solved in the same way. A wicked problem is substantially without precedent; experience does not help you address it. 8 Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem. While an ordinary problem is self-contained, a wicked problem is entwined with other problems. However, those problems don’t have one root cause. 9 The existence of a discrepancy representing a wicked problem can be explained in numerous ways. A wicked problem involves many stakeholders, who all will have different ideas about what the problem really is and what its causes are. 10 The planner has no right to be wrong. Problem solvers dealing with a wicked issue are held liable for the consequences of any actions they take, because those actions will have such a large impact and are hard to justify.
- #17 Heuristics/Biases are often made/created from: Experience ≠ reality (and often has the bias of hindsight or anchoring) May be created from another story (culture of the workplace, urban legend, poor training, etc. and also not a true picture of reality Locked in time ≠ and yet things may have changed ( subject to the concept of fossilization) Biases can be managed by awareness, elimination of bias is unrealistic and not necessarily desirable…
- #18 Heuristics/Biases are often made/created from: Experience ≠ reality (and often has the bias of hindsight or anchoring) May be created from another story (culture of the workplace, urban legend, poor training, etc. and also not a true picture of reality Locked in time ≠ and yet things may have changed ( subject to the concept of fossilization) Example is the concept of control…can we control/influence without the need for domination? Do we need to evolve what we mean by control?
- #19 Heuristics/Biases are often made/created from: Experience ≠ reality (and often has the bias of hindsight or anchoring) May be created from another story (culture of the workplace, urban legend, poor training, etc. and also not a true picture of reality Locked in time ≠ and yet things may have changed ( subject to the concept of fossilization)
- #21 Social = BHL will be present
- #23 Action bias: when faced with ambiguity (creative fuzzy-front-end) favoring doing something or anything without any prior analysis even if it is counterproductive: “I have to do something, even if I don’t know what to do”. Team members can feel that they need to take action regardless of whether it is a good idea or not. This can be an issue when under time pressure in strict design sprint workshops for example. Actor Observer Bias The way we perceive others and how we attribute their actions hinges on a variety of variables, but it can be heavily influenced by whether we are the actor or the observer in a situation. When it comes to our own actions, we are often far too likely to attribute things to external influences. You might complain that you botched an important meeting because you had jet lag or that you failed an exam because the teacher posed too many trick questions. When it comes to explaining other people’s actions, however, we are far more likely to attribute their behaviors to internal causes. Ambiguity bias: favoring options where the outcome is more knowable over those which it is not. This bias has dire impacts innovation outcomes because the process is fundamentally risky and unknown process. Anchoring Bias We also tend to be overly influenced by the first piece of information that we hear, a phenomenon referred to as the anchoring bias or anchoring effect. Authority bias: favoring authority figure opinions ideas within innovation teams. This means that innovative ideas coming from senior team members trump or better all others, even if other concepts, ideas, and inputs could be more creative and relevant to problem-solving. Availability Heuristic After seeing several news reports of car thefts in your neighborhood, you might start to believe that such crimes are more common than they are. This tendency to estimate the probability of something happening based on how many examples readily come to mind is known as the availability heuristic. Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon is the phenomenon where something you recently learned suddenly appears 'everywhere'. Also called Frequency Bias (or Illusion), the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon is the seeming appearance of a newly-learned (or paid attention to) concept in unexpected places. Confirmation Bias The confirmation bias is based on finding that people tend to listen more often to information that confirms the beliefs they already have. Through this bias, people tend to favor information that confirms their previously held beliefs. Conformity bias: choices of mass populations influence how we think, even if against independent personal judgments. This can result in poor decision making and lead to groupthink which is particularly detrimental to creativity as outside opinions can become suppressed leading to self-censorship and loss of independent thought. The Dunning-Kruger Effect: This is when people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are when they can't recognize their own incompetence. False-Consensus Effect People also have a surprising tendency to overestimate how much other people agree with their own beliefs, behaviors, attitudes, and values, an inclination known as the false consensus effect. This can lead people not only to incorrectly think that everyone else agrees with them—it can sometimes lead them to overvalue their own opinions. Framing bias: being influenced by the way in which information is presented rather than the information itself. People will avoid risk if presented well and seek risk if presented poorly meaning that decision making logic can easily be skewed. Halo Effect Researchers have found that students tend to rate good-looking teachers as smarter, kinder, and funnier than less attractive instructors. This tendency for our initial impression of a person to influence what we think of them overall is known as the halo effect. Hindsight Bias The hindsight bias is a common cognitive bias that involved the tendency of people to see events, even random ones, as more predictable than they are. Loss-aversion bias: once a decision has been made, sticking to it rather than taking risks due to the fear of losing what you gained in starting something and wishing to see it finished. We also attach more value to something once we have made an emotional investment in it. A consequence of effort, time and energy put into creative thinking, team members can become biased and become emotionally attached to their outcomes. To remedy this, the 11th commandment: “thou shalt not fall in love with thy solutions”. Misinformation Effect Our memories of particular events also tend to be heavily influenced by things that happened after the actual event itself, a phenomenon known as the misinformation effect. A person who witnesses a car accident or crime might believe that their recollection is crystal clear, but researchers have found that memory is surprisingly susceptible to even very subtle influences. Optimism Bias Another cognitive bias that has its roots in the availability heuristic is known as the optimism bias. Essentially, we tend to be too optimistic for our own good. We overestimate the likelihood that good things will happen to us while underestimating the probability that negative events will impact our lives. Self-Serving Bias Another tricky cognitive bias that distorts your thinking is known as the self-serving bias. Basically, people tend to give themselves credit for successes but lay the blame for failures on outside causes. Loss-aversion bias: once a decision has been made, sticking to it rather than taking risks due to the fear of losing what you gained in starting something and wishing to see it finished. We also attach more value to something once we have made an emotional investment in it. A consequence of effort, time and anybody that moved energy, put into creative thinking, team members can become biased and become emotionally attached to their outcomes. To remedy this, the 11th commandment: “thou shalt not fall in love with thy solutions”.
- #24 Approach 1 = looking inwards; awareness Approach 2 = Expand the context; change the frame = expand ones awareness
- #25 Bullet two…from the Bias class on Monday…
- #28 Procedure/Process (+) A linear process is a proven way to move from point A to point B and get things done… In short it offers a blueprint. (-) Linear processes tend to close one aspect and then move to the next; not designed to evolve an understanding but instead focus on getting to the end of the process. (+/-) Adherence to a process can help to ensure objectivity and completeness. Conversely, adherence to a process may inaccurately address the inherent uniqueness of each situation. People Management has a blueprint to accomplish a task which helps to ensure the task is completed to a standard. Conversely, management can easily become more focused on adherence to the blueprint and deadlines then understanding and creating insight. Line officers may simply become part of the process, implying that the process is more important than the people involved or the actual event attempting to be understood and investigated. The media has a blueprint which is often beneficial when it comes to “feeding the beast”. Conversely, the media may attempt to shoehorn in each and every event, even if the blueprint does not fit. The public and the community have a standard/procedure that may evolve into an expectation. Yet, loss of confidence, especially from the public, is often facilitated by a lack of understanding. Suggested, is that taking additional time in gaining insight and then communicating it, as compared to executing the linear blueprint, might result in greater empathy from both sides.
- #29 Relate all the above statements to an officer involved shooting, police culture, and the investigation of the officer involved shooting.
- #30 Link and go to Vensim
- #32 Often the worst thing you can do with a difficult question is to try to answer it too quickly. When the mind is coming up with What If possibilities, these fresh, new ideas can take time to percolate and form. They often result from connecting existing ideas in unusual and interesting ways. Einstein was an early believer in this form of “combinatorial thinking”; today it is widely accepted as one of the primary sources of creativity. Since this type of thinking involves both connections and questions,
- #34 Go to ScB aid
- #39 Add Joubert, don’t take away the idea that … debating a question being better than not in many instances – but not all. There are many questions that come up in everyday management that are not mission critical and the consequences of a wrong decision are not serious. In those cases, a quick decision is useful and appropriate so that the mission can be carried out. Everyone has limited time and resources, and it is important to recognize that not everything is a wicked problem deserving of this level of analysis. Sometimes you just have to make a snap decision about whether to have the chicken or shredded beef – in either case lunch is unlikely to be a catastrophe.
- #40 50MIN