The document discusses investment strategies and ideas that carry significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. It notes that BofA Securities does business with issuers covered in its research reports, so there may be a conflict of interest. Investors should consider this report as just one factor when making investment decisions. The rest of the document provides analysis and forecasts regarding the stock market, sectors, interest rates, consumer spending trends, labor market, and corporate strategies for reducing carbon emissions.

1. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to
absorb any losses arising from applying theseideas orstrategies.
BofA Securitiesdoesand seeksto do businesswith issuerscovered in itsresearch reports. Asaresult, investorsshould be aware that the firm may have aconflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity ofthis
report. Investorsshould consider thisreport asonly asingle factorin making theirinvestment decision.Refer to important disclosureson page 27-28.
30 November2022
Investing in 2023 and beyond
12492445
Savita Subramanian
Equity& Quant Strategist
BofAS
savita.subramanian@bofa.com
+1 646 855 3878
To obtain an accessible version of this document, email dg.rsch_rm_support@bofa.com
Savita Subramanian
Head of US Equity & Quant Strategy | Head of GlobalESG Research
Timestamp: 30 November 2022 05:54PM EST
Unauthorized
redistribution
of
this
report
is
prohibited.
This
report
is
intended
for
victoria.roloff@bofa.com

2. 2
Disclaimer: TheSell SideIndicatoraboveis intendedto bean indicativemetric only and may notbeused forreferencepurposes oras a measureofperformanceforany financialinstrument or
contract, orotherwiserelied uponby third parties forany otherpurpose, without thepriorwritten consentofBofA GlobalResearch. This indicatorwas not created toact asa benchmark.
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy. Note:Buy and Sellsignals arebased on rolling15-year+/-1 standard deviation from therolling15-yearmean. A readingabovethered lineindicates a Sell
signaland a readingbelow thegreen lineindicates a Buy signal
Sell Side Indicator (avg. recommendedallocation tostocksin a balancedfund) dropped by 6ppt
Sell Side Indicator (SSI), as of 10/2022
Wall Street is bearish. This is bullish.
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
EXTREME BULLISHNESS
BEARISHFOR STOCKS
EXTREME BEARISHNESS
BULLISHFOR STOCKS
Latest = 52.8%
Current Statistics:
15-Year Average = 55.1%
Sell Threshold= 58.7%
Buy Threshold= 51.5%

3. 3
2023 and beyond: the numbers
• S&P 5002023year-end target: 4000
• S&P 500floor in 2023:3000
• S&P 500in 10 years: 6000+
• S&P 500in 10 years total return equivalent: 9000+
• EPS: $200in 2023(-9% YoY, typical recession -20%)
• Sectors to own: Energy,Staples, Utilities (+), Financials
• Sectors to avoid: Tech (-), Discretionary, Materials,Communication Services
• De-globalization,reshoring and capex resilience
• Net Zero transition + War: fossil fuels and renewables can both outperform
• Changingleadership: Buy S&P 450,sell Nifty 50
• Total return decade: from high dividend yield to dividend growth
• Quality: secular and cyclicalcase
• Value> Growth; Smallcompanies > Large companies; cash, IG credit, lower duration stocks

4. 4
Source: BofA GlobalInvestment Strategy, Bank ofEngland, GlobalFinancialData, Homerand Sylla "A History ofInterest Rates" (2005)
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
3000BC 300 1720 1755 1790 1825 1860 1895 1930 1965 2000 2035
Short-term rates Long-term rates
2020s:rising cost of capital
Interest ratessince 3000 BC

5. 5
Who holds the leverage bag? The Fed and Uncle Sam
+$4.6T in Fedbalance sheet &+6.4T in M2 since 2019
Fed balance sheet and M2 money supply ($T; 2002-present)
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, Bloomberg
US Government holdsthe debt burden
US public debt to GDP, US non-financial corporate debt/GDP, and
US household debt/GDP, fiscal years 1930-present
Source: HaverAnalytics/FederalReserve, BofA US Equity &US Quant Strategy
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
02 04 05 06 07 09 10 11 12 14 15 16 17 19 20 21
Fed balance sheet
M2(RHS)
0
40
80
120
160
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
Govt Non-Fin Corps Households

6. 6
S&P 500 has the duration risk of a 30-yr zero coupon bond
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy
10bp increase in discount rate = 2%hit (allelse equal)
S&P 5002022fair value sensitivity to real risk-free rate and ERP
assumptions (bold = currenttrading range)
Near recordduration risk in S&P 500
S&P 500duration based on bottom-up DDM (as of 10/22)
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
01 02 03 04 05 06 08 09 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 22
4,167 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
1.2% 5,860 5,435 5,068 4,747 4,465 4,214 3,990 3,788 3,606
1.3% 5,682 5,282 4,935 4,630 4,361 4,121 3,907 3,713 3,538
1.4% 5,515 5,137 4,808 4,518 4,262 4,033 3,827 3,641 3,473
1.5% 5,358 5,000 4,688 4,412 4,167 3,948 3,750 3,572 3,409
1.6% 5,209 4,871 4,574 4,311 4,076 3,866 3,677 3,505 3,349
1.7% 5,068 4,747 4,465 4,214 3,990 3,788 3,606 3,441 3,290
1.8% 4,935 4,630 4,361 4,121 3,907 3,713 3,538 3,379 3,233
1.9% 4,808 4,518 4,262 4,033 3,827 3,641 3,473 3,319 3,178
2.0% 4,688 4,412 4,167 3,948 3,750 3,572 3,409 3,261 3,125
Equity Risk Premium (ERP)
Normalized
Real
Risk-Free
Rate

7. 7
Sector andselect industry groupspectrum from short duration (highpayout/lowgrowth)tolong duration(high
growth/lowpayout)
S&P 500dividend payout ratios and projected long-term growth rates as of 11/3/22
Long duration hurt by rising rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Utilities
Real
Estate
Staples
Telecomm.
Svcs.*
Industrials
Health
Care
Materials
Old
Media*
Discretionary
ex.
AMZN
&
TSLA
Energy
Financials
Technology
New
Media*
AMZN
TSLA
Long-term
growth
Dividend
payout
Dividend payout (LHS) Projected Long-term Growth Rate (RHS)
Source: FactSet, BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy. *denotes industry groups/industriesin Communication Services;“New Media” includesEntertainment andInteractiveMedia &Services
industries;“Old Media”includes Media industry.

8. 8
Household spending shifting back toservices:goods consumption remainswell above pre-pandemictrendline, but
the overshoot isbeginning toreverse. Servicesiscatching up.
From goods to services to staples
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jul-21 Nov-21 Mar-22 Jul-22
Services Goods
Gap between currentspending and extension of pre-covid trend (%)
Note: Pre-pandemic trendlineis estimated by applyingtheaveragemonthly changein thespecified category from 2018-2019 to end-2019 value. Thegap is calculatedas current spendingless the
estimated trend, in percent.
Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, BofA GlobalResearch

9. 9
The surplus in services trade has been slow to recover
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Foreign visitors by air to the US
US citizen air traffic abroad
Persons, thous
Source: Census Bureau, HaverAnalytics, BofA GlobalResearch
US citizen travelabroadoutpacing visitstothe US
Foreign visitors by air to the US vs. US citizen air traffic abroad

10. 10
Staples spendingis eating away discretionaryspending
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, FactSet
2022 consensussales for Staples, Discretionary, andIndustrials(12/31/2021-11/4/2022)
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22
Discretionary Staples Industrials
Start of earnings season: 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22

11. 11
Mandatory capex cycle in the works
Source: FederalReserve, ISM, HaverAnalytics, BofA GlobalResearch
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
80
85
90
95
100
105
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
IP-Manufacturing ex-autos (lhs)
Capacity utilization: Manufactring (rhs)
Index %
Tight manufacturing capacity
Capacity utilization atan alltime high
IP-manufacturing ex-autos (lhs) vs. capacity utilization: Manufacturing(rhs)

12. 12
Labor market still tight
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Quits rate, private sector (lhs)
Quits, private sector (rhs)
% of jobs Jobs (mn)
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Openings rate, private sector (lhs)
Openings, private sector (rhs)
% of jobs Jobs (mn)
Source: Bureau ofLaborServices, HaverAnalytics, BofA GlobalResearch
Quitsandopeningshave moderatedsomewhatin
recent months…
Quitrate, private sector (lhs) vs. Quits, private sector (rhs)
…but both remain wellabove that observedin prior
expansions
Openings rate, private sector (lhs) vs. openings, private sector (rhs)

13. 13
Tight labor drives automation spend
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Labor
productivity
(2-yr
lag)
Wage inflation (y/y%)
R² = 0.44
Wage inflation hashistorically drivenlabor productivitygrowthon a laggedbasis
US manufacturing wage inflation and labor productivity y/y
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BofA Global Research
Note:Quarterlydata of US manufacturing labor productivity versus average hourlyearnings of production & nonsupervisoryemployees

14. 14
Enhancing
energy
efficiency
Switching to
clean energy
/ renewables
Carbon
offset
schemes
Re-shoring/
near-shoring
of supply
chains
Automation Digitalization
Sustainable
packaging
Carbon
capture and
storage (CCS)
technologies
Restructuring
Autos      
Cons Durables     
Consumer Services    
Retailing     
Food/Staples Retail    
Food Beverage    
Household Products    
Energy     
Materials      
Capital Goods       
Commercial Services     
Transportation   
Utilities     
Semis    
Software   
Tech Hard/Equip     
Telecom  
Media & Ent.   
Health Care Equip/Svc    
Pharma & Biotech      
Real Estate     
Banks    
Div Financials     
Insurance    
Source: BofA Global Research
Specific approachesrange fromcarbon offsetstoautomation, digitization andnear-shoring
Enhancing energy efficiency, switching to clean energy or renewables, carbon offsets and re-shoring/near-shoring of supply chains are most
commonly used strategies (05/22)
Why now? Geopolitics, COVID, Net Zero

15. 15
100%
47%
17%
10% 10%
0%
40%
80%
120%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
Fewer companiesare on track tomeet net-zerogoals
Percentage companies in S&P500on track to meeting their net zero target (YTD as of 10/2022)
Source: ICE DataServices, BofA US Equity& QuantStrategy. *Targetupdates are typically published annually.
Pressure is on to reduce emissions

16. 16
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, ICEData Services
Grand irony: traditional capex cycle + green capex = more oil demand
Nosupply response in Energy
S&P 500Energy capex as % of operating cash flow (1990to present)
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, FactSet
20%
50%
80%
110%
90 92 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 16 18 20
LTM Energy Capex as % ofOperating CashFlow
Avg.
Energy leadsin aligning CEO short-termcompensation
toESG metrics
% of S&P 500 companies with ESG metrics as part of CEO short-term
incentive compensation plan
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%

17. 17
Inequality gap closing
Newhome inventorieshave risensharply assales
have fallen
New home inventory (lhs) vs. Months’ supply (rhs)
Home pricestrack growth in realdisposable personal
income per capita
Real DPI per capital less transfers(lhs) vs. Real SP CoreLogic Case
Shiller National Home Price Index (rhs)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
12 14 16 18 20 22
New home inventory (lhs)
Months' supply (rhs)
thous, saar months
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
9.5
9.7
9.9
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.9
76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11 16 21
RealDPI per capita less transfers (lhs)
RealSP CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index
Loglevel Loglevel
Source: Census Bureau, HaverAnalytics, BofA GlobalResearch Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, HaverAnalytics, BofA GlobalResearch
Wealth effect from housing impact in the works

18. 18
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, Sensortower
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/18 7/18 1/19 7/19 1/20 7/20 1/21 7/21 1/22
App MAU (RHS) (mn)
Robinhoodusers still elevatedversuspre-COVID
Robinhoodmonthlyactiveuserssince2018(millions)asofOctober2022
2022 losses tracking ~$22tn
YTD returnsand cumulative losses for differentasset classes
Source: Bloomberg, PRNewswire, BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy
Democratization of financial asset inflation

19. 19
Source: HaverAnalytics, BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy
Widest gapever between actualandnormalizedEPS,
from max buybacks, max stimulus, min financing
costs andpeak globalization
S&P 500operating EPS vs. normalized EPS (1977-present;light
blue dots = 2022-23Enormalized earnings)
Cyclically peaked earnings and secular pressures
Globalization (which drove margin growth)isslowing
2021net margin (ex-Financials) expansion waterfall vs. 1995-2004
levels (factors related to globalization circled in red)
Source: BofA US Equity &US Quant Strategy, FactSet
6.9%
12.8%
+2.9%
-0.7%
-0.2%
-0.8%+0.4%
-0.2%
+2.4%
+0.7%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
0
50
100
150
200
250
77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22
Trailing 4-qtrOperating EPS
Normalized EPS

20. 20
Volatility likely to rise
Volatilityslated to increase further
CBOE VIX and Inverted Slope of Yield Curve (1986to 10/2022)
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
-80
-30
20
70
120
170
220
270
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
2-10 yr Tsy spread 3-yr lead (lhs, inverted) VIX Index (rhs)
Corr. -46%
Source: CBOE, BEA, BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy

21. 21
Liquidityrisk in odd places
AndFedasset base normalizationhasjust begun
R-sq of Fed Fed balance sheet + BofA projection ($T)
Source: Bloomberg, BofA GlobalResearch
Source: Bloomberg, BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy
One ofthe largest asset classes in the worldhas
liquidity risk
1-mo. avg. in US Government Securities Liquidity Index (2010-
11/18/22)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Fed balance sheet BofA projection

22. 22
If QE mattered, QT will matter
Over halfofnon-earningsdrivenmarketcapchanges
wasexplainedby the Fedbalance sheet expansion since
GFC
R-sq of Fed balance sheet YoY vs. YoY change in S&P 500market cap
that is not driven by earnings (5/97-12/21)
Source: FactSet, BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy
*Non-earnings driven market cap change= [totalmarket cap change] – [historicalavg. fwd P/E] x
[chg. in fwd EPS]
48%
23%
0%
20%
40%
60%
1997-2009 2010-2021
Source: FactSet, BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy
Earningsexplainednearly 50%ofmarket returnspre-
GFC, but only 23% of post-GFCreturns
R-sq of S&P 500 fwd EPS YoY vs. S&P 500price returnson a monthly
basis (5/97-12/21)
0%
51%
0%
20%
40%
60%
1997-2009 2010-2021

23. 23
New equity barbell: passiveand private
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Liquid Illiquid
Source: Pensions &Investments, BofA US Equity &US Quant Strategy
Note: Based on US pension fundswithin thetop 1000that haveavailableasset
allocations. Liquid= domesticequity, domestic fixedincome, internationalequity, global
equity, global/internationalfixed income(includesmortgages/credit strategies/leveraged
loans) and cash. Illiquid = Privateequity, realestate, otheralternativeinvestments.
Teachersandfirefighters’liquidityrisk tripled
Pension Plan Asset Allocation (% liquid vs. illiquid assets)
Public equity exposure hasshiftedfromactive toindex
US AUM allocation active vs. passive (‘09-9/22)
Source: Strategic Insights, SimFund, BofA US Equity &US Quant Strategy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Today
49% Active
51% Passive

24. 24
Valuation isalmost allthat mattersfor long-termstock
returns
S&P 500annualized forward ten-year returns(forecast versusactual)
(since 1987)
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, FactSet, HaverAnalytics
Valuationcurrently suggests~5ppt-per-annumprice
returnsover thenextdecade
S&P 500normalized P/E versus subsequent annualized returns(since
1987, as of October 2022)
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, FactSet, HaverAnalytics
0%
30%
60%
90%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Holdingperiod (#of years)
Variabilityof Returns Explainedby
Price toNormalizedEPS(R-Squared
of NormalizedP/Eversus
Subsequent S&P500Returns)
R
2
of
Norm.
P/E
vs.
Subs.
Returns
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Annualized
Forward
10-yr
Return
Forecast Actual
Current
10yrforecast
Better setup for next 10 years

25. 25
Welcome to a total return world
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
'00 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 '20
Avg. 52%
Room to raise dividends
S&P 500dividend payout ratio, 1900-3Q22
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, S&P
Dividendshave contributed36%oftotalreturns(but just
14%in the last decade)
S&P 500price returnand dividend contributions to total return
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, FactSet
Price Return
64%
Dividend
Return
36%
Price
Return
86%
Dividend
Return
14%
Since 1936 Since 2013
Source: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy, Russell
Note: Average 12-month performance in the above exhibit is based on backtested results from 1/31/84 through 9/28/10
and actual performance from 9/28/10 to present. And does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund.
Highest isn’t alwaysbest
Avg. returnvs.loss risk of Russell 1000trailing 12-mth dividend yield
quintiles and no yield basket – monthly rebalance (1/31/84-10/31/22)
NoDividend
Quintile 1
(Highest)
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4 Quintile 5
(Lowest)
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25%
Avg
12-Mth
Rolling
Returns
Risk- Probabilityof Loss
0
30
60
90
120
150
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Newdividendshave scarcity value
Number of Russell 3000companies initiating dividends 1986-YTD ’22
Source: BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy, FactSet, Bloomberg

26. 26
Time is literally on your side for stocks
As time horizonshave grown, equity losseshave plummeted
Probability of negative returns, based on S&P 500 total returnsfrom1929to October 2022
Source: S&P, Bloomberg, BofA US Equity &Quant Strategy
46%
38%
32%
26%
16%
10%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 Day 1 Month 1 Qtr 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10Yr

27. 27
Important Disclosures
Due to the nature ofstrategic analysis, the issuers or securitiesrecommended or discussedinthis report are not continuouslyfollowed. Accordingly, investors must
regard thisreport as providing stand-alone analysisandshouldnot expect continuing analysis or additional reports relatingto suchissuers and/or securities.
Due to the nature ofquantitative analysis, the issuers or securities recommendedor discussedin thisreport are not continuouslyfollowed. Accordingly, investors
must regardthis report as providingstand-alone analysis and shouldnot expect continuinganalysisor additional reports relating to such issuers and/or securities.
BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s)responsible for this report) receive compensation basedupon, among other factors, the overall profitability
of Bank ofAmerica Corporation, including profits derivedfrom investment banking. The analyst(s)responsible for this report mayalsoreceive compensation based
upon, among other factors, the overall profitabilityof the Bank’s sales and tradingbusinesses relating to the classof securities or financial instruments for whichsuch
analyst is responsible.

28. 28
Other Important Disclosures
Prices are indicative and for information purposes only.Except as otherwise stated in thereport, for anyrecommendation in relation to an equitysecurity, the price referenced is the publicly traded price of thesecurity as of close of business on the dayprior to thedate of the report or,if thereport is published duringintraday trading, the price referenced is indicative of
thetraded price as of thedate and time of thereport and in relation to a debt security (including equity preferred and CDS), prices are indicative as of thedate and time of thereport and are from various sources including BofA Securities trading desks.
​This report may refer to fixed income securities or other financial instruments that may not beoffered or sold in one or more states or jurisdictions, or to certain categories of investors, including retail investors. Readers of this report are advised that any discussion, recommendation or other mention of such instruments is not asolicitation or offer to transact in such
instruments. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Management financial advisor for information relating to such instruments.
Officers of BofASor oneor more of its affiliates (other than research analysts) may have afinancial interest in securities of theissuer(s) or in related investments.
Refer to BofA Global Research policies relating to conflicts of interest.
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Taiwan Readers: Neither the information nor anyopinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or asolicitation of an offer to transact in any securities or other financial instrument. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by thepress or any other person without theexpress written consent of BofA Securities.
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This report may contain ashort-term trading idea or recommendation, which highlights a specific near-term catalyst or event impacting the issuer or themarket that is anticipated to have ashort-term price impact on the equity securities of theissuer. Short-term trading ideas and recommendations are different from and do not affect a stock's fundamental equity rating,
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