- M&A and capital markets activity increased in Q4 2020, with global M&A deal value reaching over $1 trillion for the full year despite economic challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Median middle market deal values and EV/EBITDA multiples remained steady between 2019 and 2020, while private equity buyout multiples reached new highs and add-on deals made up a record percentage of leveraged buyouts.
- Debt multiples and pricing were largely unchanged in Q4, while private equity fundraising saw its lowest annual total since 2015.
Pitch Deck Teardown: RAW Dating App's $3M Angel deck
4Q20 Forbes Market Update
1. M & A a n d C a p i t a l M a r k e t s U p d a t e – 4 Q 2 0 2 0
CONFIDENTIAL
M&AandCapitalMarketsUpdate
1
4 Q 2 0 2 0
2. M & A a n d C a p i t a l M a r k e t s U p d a t e – 4 Q 2 0 2 0
CONFIDENTIAL
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2
CautiouslyOptimisticRecoveryContinues…
7.1x
Avg. Middle Market
EV/EBITDA Multiple(1)
84%
of Deals Closed Had an EV
Below $250 Million
$2.8 Trillion
Current Cash Balance of S&P
500 Companies
Note: (1) Middle market defined as transactions with values at or below $250 million. Source: GF Data, Capital IQ
Unemployment Continued to Decline but are Still Above YoY Levels Due to COVID Impact
Jan 20: 3.6%
Dec 20: 6.7%
↑86%
“Despite the tremendous growth in Q3 and sustained recovery in Q4, the damage done to
the economy through nine months of COVID was insurmountable. To put things in
perspective, GDP decreased in 2020 by 3.5% from 2019, marking the worst decline since
1946 (World War II), and it was the first time GDP declined since the financial crisis in
2009. The one bright spot was the M&A market that seemingly turned a blind eye to the
events around it and produced strong value and volume.
Looking ahead to 2021, uncertainty and cautious optimism abound as a new
administration takes office and the COVID vaccine is rolled out.”
JJ Lane – Vice President
Apr 20: 14.7%
3. M & A a n d C a p i t a l M a r k e t s U p d a t e – 4 Q 2 0 2 0
CONFIDENTIAL
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Capital IQ, St. Louis Fed, European Central Bank, U.S. Department of the Treasury as of 12/31/2020
3
0.09%
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
…Buta Lotof GroundtoCatchUpAftera Damaging2020
2Q 2020: 3,100
3Q 2020: 3,363
↑11.7%
S&P 500 Maintained Steady Growth and Closed the Year Strong… …While U.S. Real GDP Remained Markedly Behind 2019
Fed Funds Rate Held Flat… …As Treasury Yields Followed a Similar Path
Q2:
-9.5%
Q3:
-2.9%
4Q 2020: 3,756
Q4:
-2.9%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10 Year 20 Year 30 Year
4. M & A a n d C a p i t a l M a r k e t s U p d a t e – 4 Q 2 0 2 0
CONFIDENTIAL
…With the U.S. M&A Market Mirroring the Global Increase
Global M&A Activity Carries Surged…
U.S. Middle Market Deal Volume Continued to Rise in 4Q(1) Cash Reserves Dipped as Corporates Began Spending Again
4
($ in billions)
Note: (1) Middle market defined as transactions with values at or below $250 million. Source: GF Data, Capital IQ
($ in billions)
($ in billions)
M&AContinuedtoRoll Followinga StrongReboundin 3Q…
$736 $766 $902 $939 $655 $852 $544 $303 $849 $1,133
12,275
13,254 12,354
11,690
11,917
12,731
11,656
8,538
11,187
14,205
7,500
9,500
11,500
13,500
15,500
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2018 2019 2020
Deal Value Deal Count
$339 $325 $411 $501 $284 $281 $154
$58
$309 $370
1,396 1,456
1,342 1,312
1,428 1,476
1,304
654
1,005
1,222
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2018 2019 2020
Deal Value Deal Count
1,042 1,091 1,046 992 1,108 1,099 1,022
548
768 860
252 263 220 220
228 250
221
79
151
247
102 102
76 100
92 127
61
27
86
125
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2018 2019 2020
Under $100M $100M-$500M +$500M
$2,392
$1,994 $2,103 $2,164 $2,188 $2,078
$2,968
$3,368 $3,345
$2,755
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2018 2019 2020
SP 500 Cash Balance
5. M & A a n d C a p i t a l M a r k e t s U p d a t e – 4 Q 2 0 2 0
CONFIDENTIAL 5
$34.3M Historical
Average
(1) Middle market defined as transactions with values at or below $250 million. Source: Pitchbook, GF Data, Capital IQ
6.6x
7.1x
8.4x
9.3x
7.1x 7.0x
10.0x
6.7x
7.1x
7.9x
6.9x
7.7x 8.3x
7.6x
Manufacturing Business Services Health Care Consumer Distribution Media & Telecom Technology
2019 2020 5 Year Average
…WhileM&AValuationsRemainedFairly Consistent
Median Middle Market M&A Deal Values Increased Slightly(1)…
($ in millions)
…But U.S. Middle Market EV / EBITDA Multiples Remained Steady
$31.0 $30.9 $30.1 $31.0 $32.2 $35.0 $37.5 $40.0 $37.0 $38.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Median Deal Value Average
6.7x
7.2x 7.2x
7.1x 7.1x
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EV / EBITDA Multiples
Middle Market EV / EBITDA Multiples Stayed Strong with Media & Telecom Deals Experiencing the Largest Increase
6. M & A a n d C a p i t a l M a r k e t s U p d a t e – 4 Q 2 0 2 0
CONFIDENTIAL
PE buyout multiples continued to grow to new all-time highs as
more software deals are getting done, elevating overall
multiples
Add-on deals remained strong in 4Q 2020 at 72%, as they
accounted for the highest percentage of LBOs in history
Fundraising saw its worst year since 2015, raising just over $200
billion across only 231 new funds, the lowest since 2012
U.S.PrivateEquityM&AEnvironment
6
($ in billions)
Source: Pitchbook, GF Data, Capital IQ
PE Buyout Multiples Finish Strong
PE Fundraising Closes with Worst Year Since 2015 PE Add-On Deals Continued to Increase as a % of Total Deals
4.6x 4.4x 5.7x 6.5x 5.3x 5.7x 5.7x 5.9x 6.0x 6.3x
4.6x 4.2x
4.1x
5.7x
4.6x 5.9x 5.4x 5.6x 6.7x 7.8x
9.1x 8.6x
9.7x
12.2x
9.8x
11.6x 11.1x 11.5x
12.7x
14.1x
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Debt/EBITDA Equity/EBITDA
$70 $103 $159 $179 $156 $225 $258 $221 $321 $203
179
205
297
377 376 392
443
397
375
231
0
100
200
300
400
500
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Capital Raised Number of Funds
1,391 1,610 1,539 2,027 2,121 2,223 2,440 2,973 3,072
2,533
993
1,183 956
1,171 1,292 1,217
1,327
1,488 1,413
962
58%
58%
62% 63%
62%
65%
65%
67%
68%
72%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Add-On Non Add-On Add-On %
7. M & A a n d C a p i t a l M a r k e t s U p d a t e – 4 Q 2 0 2 0
CONFIDENTIAL
Debt Multiples
Debt Pricing(1)
LeverageMultiples&Pricing
Debt & Equity Contribution
7
Debt Type
Company Size /
Lender Type
3Q 2020 4Q 2020
Senior Cash Flow Debt
Bank L+ 3.25% - 4.25% L+ 3.25% - 4.25%
Non-Bank <$7.5 Million
EBITDA
L+ 6.5% - 8.0% L+ 6.5% - 8.0%
Non-Bank >$15.0 Million
EBITDA
L+ 655% - 7.5% L+ 5.5% - 7.5%
<$5.0 Million EBITDA L+ 9.0% - 10.5% L+ 9.0% - 10.5%
Unitranche Debt >$10.0 Million EBITDA L+ 7.0% - 8.5% L+ 7.0% - 8.5%
>$20.0 Million EBITDA L+ 6.5% - 7.5% L+ 6.5% - 7.5%
Subordinated /
Mezzanine Debt
<$5.0 Million EBITDA 13.0% - 14.5% 13.0% - 14.5%
>$10.0 Million EBITDA 11.0% - 12.5% 11.0% - 12.5%
>$20.0 Million EBITDA 10.5% - 11.5% 10.5% - 11.5%
Source: GF Data, Capital IQ LCD, SPP Capital
3.0x 3.3x 3.0x 3.2x 3.1x
0.8x
0.9x
0.8x 0.8x 0.6x
3.8x
4.2x
3.8x 4.0x
3.7x
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Senior Debt / EBITDA Sub Debt / EBITDA
35.3% 33.2% 33.1%
41.7%
13.0% 11.2% 7.6%
8.4%
37.8% 38.6% 41.1%
33.6%
13.9% 17.0% 18.2% 16.3%
$10-$25mm $25-$50mm $50-$100mm $100-$250mm
Senior Debt Sub Debt Equity Rollover Equity