Moderator – Spence Hoole, President, Mountain Region, IMA Financial Group Panelist – Sam Orme, Managing Director, Bank of America Panelist – Drew Yergensen, President, KeyBank Panelist – Gavin Christensen, Partner, Kickstart Seed Fund

1. BofA Securitiesdoesand seeksto do businesswith issuerscovered in itsresearch reports. Asaresult, investorsshould be aware that the firm may have aconflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity ofthis
report. Investorsshould consider thisreport asonly asingle factorin making theirinvestment decision.Refer to important disclosureson page 37-38.
29 November2023
Global Macro Outlook
Around the world in 5 questions
12632694
Claudio Irigoyen
GlobalEconomist
BofAS
claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com
+1 646 855 1734
GlobalEconomics Team
BofAS
To obtain an accessible version of this document, email dg.rsch_rm_support@bofa.com
Timestamp: 29 November 2023 01:38PM EST

2. Is global growth less synchronized?

3. 3
Global growth less synchronized than inflation
Global forecastsfor main countriesandregions
We forecast a mild deceleration in global growth in2024
Note: Old forecastfrom the YA published in November 2022
Source: BofA Global Research
GDP growth CPI inflation
2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Global 3.5 3.0 2.8 3.0 6.0 4.2 3.1 2.5
US 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.3 8.0 4.1 2.8 2.3
Euro area 3.4 0.5 0.5 1.2 8.4 5.6 2.6 1.4
Japan 0.9 1.7 0.8 1.0 2.5 3.2 3.2 1.6
China 3.0 5.3 4.8 4.6 2.0 0.4 1.4 1.6
Developed Markets 2.6 1.5 0.9 1.2 7.4 4.8 2.8 1.9
Emerging Markets 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.8 3.8 3.3 2.9
Emerging Asia 4.2 5.0 4.8 4.8 3.6 2.2 2.4 2.4
Emerging EMEA 4.6 2.1 3.5 3.8 7.6 9.3 6.6 4.9
Latin America 4.0 2.2 1.8 2.1 7.7 5.0 3.8 3.4

4. 4
Forecast revisions shows the block divergence
Growth forecast revisionsvsyear aheadforecasts
2023and 2024growth forecasts vs 2023YA
Changesin inflation forecastsfor 2023 and2024
Forecasts for 2024have changed the most for China
Note:YA forecasts from November 2022.
Inflation aggregate for EEMEA and LatAm does notinclude Argentinaand Türkiye
Source: BofA Global Research
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
US Euro
area
Japan China EM Asia EEMEA LatAm
2023F 2024F
2.4
2.2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
US Euro
area
Japan China EM Asia EEMEA LatAm
2023F 2024F

5. 5
Growing apart, cutting together
We expect uneven growth dynamicstopersist…
GDP growth and BofA forecasts (%qoq, saar)
… but most countriestosee gradualdisinflation
BofA CPI inflation forecasts (% yoy, avg)
Source: BofA Global Research, Haver
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2023 2024 2025
US EA Japan China
0
2
4
6
8
10
2023 2024
Source: BofA Global Research

6. 6
A tale of a slowdown and surprises
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
The US hasbeen more resilient thanEA, China
US, Eurozone, China, and EM data releases vs. expectations
PMIsshowslowdown across blocks
Composite PMIs
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23
US Eurozone China EM
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23
US China Eurozone

7. 7
China is approaching the end of a growth model
Property marketrecovery disrupted
Long- and medium-term foreign bond holdings (% yoy)
Investmentdeceleratedon propertyslowdown
Real estate FAI growth weakened further in April-July (%yoy)
Source: BofA Global Research, ChinaCustoms, CEIC
-70
-20
30
80
130
180
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Monthly GFA sold Monthly home sales
-40
-20
0
20
40
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Manufacturing Infrastructure Real estate
Source: BofA Global Research, ChinaCustoms, CEIC

8. 8
Japan is gradually coming back
Source: BofA Global Research, Haver
Consumption hasnot fully recoveredyet
BoJ consumption activity index (2019average=100, real, SA, 3mma)
We expect BoJ-style core above 3% through CY23
Factors driving changes in Japan-style core inflation
Source: BofA Global Research, Haver
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2020 2021 2022 2023
Total Consumption Durable
Non-Durable Services
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 Jan 23 Jul 23 Jan 24 Jul 24
US-style core CPI*** non-perishable food
Underlying energy price Policy support
Japan-style core CPI* BoJ-style core CPI**

9. 9
Commodity prices have led part of the disinflation so far
Commodity prices are offtheir peaks, but oil priceshave threatenedtorise again
Oil, copper, and grain prices (USD)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
0
100
200
300
400
500
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Brent Copper Grains

10. 10
LatAm hiked more than any other region, and is already cutting
LatAmhashikedmore than anyotherregion
Cumulative hikes since January 2020, regional average (bp)
Inflation spikesacrossthe globe
Cumulative inflation since2020, regional average (%)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
Jan-20 Aug-20 Mar-21 Oct-21 May-22 Dec-22 Jul-23
G10 ex. US LatAm APAC EEMEA US
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Jan-20 Aug-20 Mar-21 Oct-21 May-22 Dec-22 Jul-23
DM excl US Latam APAC EMEA US

11. 11
US rates led to a repricing of market-implied policy rates
Market-impliedpolicy ratesrose above BofA forecastsin many EM
Market-impliedchanges in policy rates vs BofA forecasts over the next12 months (bp)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
10 9 6 4
-54
-114 -130 -145 -158
-197
-303 -316
-340
-633 -700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
Malaysia
Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
S.Africa
Israel
Poland
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
Czech
Chile
Colombia
Hungary
Hikes Cuts BofA

12. Why is the US economy so resilient?

13. 13
Bye bye recession, hello soft landing
We nowexpect a soft landing in the US
GDP growth forecasts (%, qoq saar)
Interest rate sensitive sectorsmay have bottomed
Contributions to GDP growth (%)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Source: BofA Global Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver
2.2
2.1
4.9
1.5
0.5 0.5 0.5
1.0
1.5 1.5
2.0 2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
GDP growth, % qoq saar
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 2023 2024 2025
PCE Bus fixed inv Residential inv
Gov Inventories Net exports

14. 14
Healthy consumer fundamentals…
Consumers have seen realincome growth
Real household income (USD tn, 2012chained)
Excess savingsare shrinking, but remain
Total stock and flow of excess savings (USD bn)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Source: BofA Global Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver
12
14
16
18
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real disposable income
Real disposable income ex-transfer payments
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Monthly excess saving (lhs) Total excess saving (rhs)

15. 15
… including balance sheets
Household financesremain solid
Debt service and financial obligations ratios (%)
Balance sheetsremain strongerthan pre-pandemic
Household total assets and liquid asset to liabilities ratios (%)
Source: BofA Global Research, Federal Reserve Board, Haver Source: BofA Global Research, Federal Reserve Board, Haver
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Debt-service ratio
Financial obligations ratio (rhs)
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
1100%
Household assets /liabilities
Household liquid assets / liabilities (rhs)

16. 16
The labor market is still too tight for comfort
Still far more jobs openingsthan unemployed
Vacancy-to-unemployment ratio
NFP stillmore than offset population growth
Non-farm payroll changes (thousands)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Federal Reserve Bankof Atlanta, Haver
Source: BofA Global Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Federal Reserve Bankof Atlanta, Haver
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23
NFP ch. thous.
Upper bound of pace needed to offset population growth

17. 17
Labor supply has been better than expected
Prime-age labor supply hasrecovered
Employment-to-population ratio (%)
Internationalmigrationrecoveredsharply
Net international migration (thousands)
Source: BofA Global Research Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Source: BofA Global Research, Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
30
32
34
36
38
40
60
65
70
75
80
85
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
16-64 25-54 55+ (RHS)

18. 18
ARM vs FRM affects the transmission of monetary policy…
A cross-country comparison of severalkey metrics
Latestdata for the major economies
Source: BofA Global Research, European Mortgage Federation, Haver
NO AU SE CA NZ KR UK US JP EA
Mortgage loans with floating rate, % 94% 63% 75% 33% 58% 72% 40% 15% 65% 30%
% of HH with mortgage 51% 32% 44% 39% 34% - 28% 40% 30% 17%
Mortgage rate, % 4.8% 8.5% 4.5% 5.9% 8.5% 4.2% 7.5% 6.7% 0.4% 4.1%
Additional CB rate hikes priced (ppts) 29 16 33 14 11 17 50 0 3 16
HH debt service ratio 13% 16% 13% 14% 5% 14% 9% 8% 8% 6%
HH debt-to-disposable income ratio 227% 197% 180% 171% 168% 166% 130% 94% 113% 104%
House prices increase Q4 2019-latest 19% 31% 18% 38% 35% 16% 25% 41% 13% 14%
Effective mortgage rate 5% 5% 4% 4% 6% 4% 3% 4% 0% 2%
Housing investment (% chg since Q42019) 2% 1% 6% -6% 6% -1% 9% -12% -13% 4%
Real consumerspending (% chg since Q4
2019) 3% 6% 2% 5% 10% 3% -2% 9% 1% -1%

19. 19
…and the lock-in effect explains house prices resiliency
Still low effective mortgage rateslimit MP
Marginal vs effective mortgages rates acrosscountries (%)
House prices remain resilient despite ratehikes
Home price growth, 2019-peakvs 2019-latest (%)
Source: BofA Global Research, Haver, National statistical agencies and central banks Source: BofA Global Research, Haver
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
NZ AU NO KR SE CA US UK EA JP
Marginal Effective
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
US AU NZ CA NO EA UK SE JP CH
Peak Latest

20. 20
The goods vs services divergence: Focus on wages
We expect core inflation toslowly grindlower
Contributions to headline CPI (%)
Labor cost growth moderatedbut remainshigh
Measures of labor cost growth (%yoy)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Source: BofA Global Research, Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Median Wage Growth Unit Labor Cost
Employment Cost Index
-3.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Energy Food Core Goods
Core Services Headline

21. 21
Financial tightening and higher for longer
Excess tightening remainedwellbelowGFC levels
Excess tightening of lending standards (%)
A soft landing impliesa delayedeasing cycle
Fed Funds Rate, market-implied vs BofA forecasts
Source: BofA Global Research, BLS, FRBATL,Haver Source: BofA Global Research, BLS, FRBATL,Haver
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Unanticipated tightening Standard error
1Q
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
Jul 23 Nov 23 Jan 24 May 24 Jul 24 Nov 24
Market pricing BofA forecast

22. What is so different about Europe?

23. 23
The Europe vs US divergence: A tale of two shocks
Consumption in Europe lags the US recovery
Real consumption (4Q2019=100)
Employment adjustedthrough intensivemargin
Employment level (4Q2019=100)
Source: BofA Global Research, GDELT Project Source: BofA Global Research, GDELT Project
70
80
90
100
110
120
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Euro Area UK US
80
86
92
98
104
110
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Euro area UK US

24. 24
Inflation remains high while fiscal woes could be looming
We expect EA Core inflation at2%by end-2024
Euro Area core inflation, observed and BofA forecasts (%)
Debt rule prescribes big fiscal tightening
Prescribed adjustments in primary balance vs 2022(%of GDP)
Source: BofA Global Research, ECB Source: BofA Global Research, Bruegel data, European Commission, Governmentof France, IMF WEO
Note:Debtstabilization/0.5%/1.0% GDP debtreduction are computed as the primary balances
consistent with ayearly decline in the debtratio byat least0.0%/0.5%/1.0% GDP between 2029 and
2060 for countries with adebtratio above 60% in 2029.
-1
0
1
2
3
France Germany Italy Spain
Debt stabilization 0.5% GDP debt reduction
1.0% GDP debt reduction
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
NEIG Services Core

25. Can you see geopolitics in the data?

26. 26
Reshoring is here to stay
US manufacturing skyrocketed…
Construction spending (USD mn), job openings (thousands, 12mma)
China exportsare shifting away fromthe West
Share in China total exports, 12m sum (%)
Source: BofA Global Research, Haver Source: BofA Global Research, Haver
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
Exports to Belt and Road countries
Exports to US, EU and Japan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
US construction spending, manufacturing
Job openings, manufacturing (rhs)

27. 27
At the same time, nearshoring emerges as an alternative
China’sloss hasbeen Mexico’sgain in USimports
Share in US total imports, 12mma (%)
Investmentin machineryevidencesnearshoring
Investment by categories (SA, 3mma, Jan-2012=100)
Source: BofA Global Research, Haver, US Census Bureau Source: BofA Global Research, INEGI
0
5
10
15
20
25
1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023
Mexico China
US/China
trade war
NAFTA China Shock COVID-19
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Domestic machinery and equipment
Imported machinery and equipment
Construction
Investment

28. 28
Geopolitics has been leading shifts in FDI since 2017
Since President Trumpwaselected, US investmenthasclearly shiftedout ofChina intoASEANandLatAm
Change in FDI outflows from USA, 2017-2021(USD millions)
Note:2021 vs 2017 change in USDmn. Includes reinvestment of retained profits in FDI.
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
4,257
3,406
1,200
1,143
1,140
880
589
543
528
495
96
82
-120
-126
-257
-383
-828
-1,022
-1,290
-1,658
-1,715
-3,010
-5,095
-412
-647
-2,452
3,204
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000

29. 29
Increasing globalpolicy uncertainty
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
A wave of presidential elections in a highly polarized world
Note:* indicates regional elections, ** indicates constitutional referendum
0
100
200
300
400
500
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Date Country Date Country
1-Sep-23 Singapore 24-May-23 India
14-Oct-23 New Zealand 24-May-23 South Africa
15-Oct-23 Ecuador 5-May-24 Panama
15-Oct-23 Poland 19-May-24 DomRep
22-Oct-23 Switzerland 2-Jun-24 Mexico
22-Oct-23 Argentina 6/9June-24 European Union
29-Oct-23 Colombia* 9-Jun-24 Belgium
19-Nov-23 Argentina 26-Jun-24 Indonesia
22-Nov-23 Netherlands Autumn-24 Austria
10-Dec-23 Egypt 24-Oct-23 Tunisia
20-Dec-23 Chile** 6-Oct-24 Brazil*
13-Jan-24 Taiwan 27-Oct-24 Brazil*
4-Feb-24 El Salvador 27-Oct-24 Uruguay
14-Feb-24 Indonesia 27-Oct-24 Chile*
25-Feb-24 Senegal 5-Nov-24 USA
17-Mar-24 Russia 24-Dec-23 Ghana
31-Mar-24 Türkiye* 2024 Venezuela
Mar-24 Ukraine 2025 UK
10-Apr-24 South Korea

30. 30
More than half of the world GDP goes to elections in 2023-2024
Countrieswith electionsreach 63%ofworldGDP…
Cumulative share of world GDP (%)
… and65%of world market cap
Cumulative share of world market capitalization (%)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
USA
EU
India
UK
Brazil
Russia
S
Korea
Mexico
Indonesia
Netherlands
Türkiye
Switzerland
Taiwan
Poland
Argentina
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
USA
EU
India
UK
Switzerland
Taiwan
S
Korea
Netherlands
Brazil
Indonesia
Russia
Mexico
Türkiye
Poland
Argentina

31. What are the limits of fiscal policy?

32. 32
Fiscal policy is losing power to fight the next recession
Government deficitsare much larger thanpre-GFC…
Government deficits (% of GDP)
… andgovernmentdebt hasjumpedaccordingly
Debt-to-GDP ratios (%)
Source: BofA Global Research, IMF WEO, Haver Source: BofA Global Research, IMF WEO, Haver
0
50
100
150
200
250
2023F 2007
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2023F primary deficit Interest 2007

33. 33
The long end of the curve has been selling off across the globe…
The selloff in US rateshascoincidedwith higher long-endratesacrossthe world
Changes in 10yyields of nominal and inflation-linked government bonds since 5/1/2023(bp)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
US Europe Japan Canada Australia UK China Korea Mexico
Nominal Real

34. 34
Is r* rising as DMs increasingly resemble EMs?
Latest estimatesput r*between 0.5-1.0%
Estimates of the real neutral rate of interest for the US (%)
EM spreads compressed amidhigher globalrates
Global yields (%), EM LDM and EXD spreads vs US (bp)
Source: BofA Global Research Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
Holston-Laubach-Williams estimates
Laubach-Williams estimates
-2
0
2
4
6
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
EM LDM, spread vs US 10y EM EXD, spread vs US 10y
US 10y (rhs) Japan 10y (rhs)
Bunds 10y (rhs)

35. 35
Global imbalances have increased and the USD strengthened
Current accountsin widening mode (up or down)
Current account balances (% of World GDP)
USD remainshistorically very strong
Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate (Jan-2009=100)
Source: BofA Global Research, BIS, IMFWEO Haver Source: BofA Global Research, BIS, IMFWEO Haver
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
US Euro Area Japan
UK China EEMEA
EM Asia MEast and CAsia SSA
LatAm
50
70
90
110
130
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
US China Euro Area Japan

36. 36
The dollar still holds its lead
The USD dominatesSWIFT, EURfell from itspeak
Share of SWIFT payments by currency (%)
The USD remainsthe world’smain reserve currency
IMF composition of allocated reserves (%)
Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg Source: BofA Global Research, IMF COER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
USD EUR GBP JPY CHF
CAD AUD Other CNY
0
15
30
45
60
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
USD EUR GBP JPY
AUD CAD CNY

37. 37
Important Disclosures
BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s)responsible for this report) receive compensation basedupon, among other factors, the overall profitability
of Bank ofAmerica Corporation, including profits derivedfrom investment banking. The analyst(s)responsible for this report mayalsoreceive compensation based
upon, among other factors, the overall profitabilityof the Bank’s sales and tradingbusinesses relating to the classof securities or financial instruments for whichsuch
analyst is responsible.

38. 38
Other Important Disclosures
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