International Experience with Electric and Zero Emission Buses
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A presentation to the International Seminar on Electricmobility applied to public transport through urban buses
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International Experience with Electric and Zero Emission Buses
- 1. International Experience with Electric and Zero Emission Buses Ray Minjares International Seminar Electric Mobility in Public Bus Transport: Challenges, Benefits and Opportunities 9 May 2018 Ministry of Cities - Brazil
- 2. Buses are a visible entry point for cleaner fuels and vehicles
- 3. Old diesel technology can give the best BRT the worst image
- 5. 9 out of 10 people breathe polluted air
- 6. But we also face a climate challenge
- 7. 7 Energy consumption of on-road diesel engines* has increased more than 400% since 1980 Based on IEA data from the World Energy Balances Data Service © OECD/IEA 2017, www.iea.org/statistics. Licence: www.iea.org/t&c; as modified by ICCT. *Diesel engines consume diesel fuel and biodiesel.
- 8. China Airpocalypse (2013 Jan)
- 9. 60% of new buses in major cities must be NEVs Battery electric Plug-in Hybrid Electric Fuel Cell Electric China National Ten Measures (2013) Figure 1. Vehicle population in China’s provinces and municipalities in 2014 (10,000 units)
- 10. China Industrial Policy: 48 Billion USD in NEV Subsidies since 2009 Cui, H. Adjustment to Subsidies for New Energy Vehicles in China. Policy Update ICCT 2017, 1–11.
- 11. Chinese manufacturers dominate sales Electric Buses in Cities; Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018; pp 1–63.
- 12. California Source: Frank Schulenburg, CC BY-SA 4.0,
- 13. Meet federal ozone air quality standards in 2023 and 2031 40% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 by 2030 80 % reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 by 2050 50 % reduction in petroleum consumption by 2030 Requires maximum deployment of zero emission technologies California statewide goals
- 15. California Statewide Fiscal Incentives
- 16. Los Angeles
- 17. CARB’s goal is that by 2040 only ZEB’s are in service. LA Metro’s 2030 ZEB plan would be ten years ahead of CARB goals. 17 City of Los Angeles: 100% ZEB Goal by 2030
- 18. 18 1. Long-term demand for equal or greater service and operating performance 1. 400+ km range in stop/go driving with 1.4 passenger load factor 2. Less than 14,000 kg curb weight for 12m ZEB 3. 400km range throughout the 12 year vehicle life 4. 100km/h top speed; ability to sustain 10% grade 2. New Up Front Investment in Charging Equipment and Infrastructure 3. Known and unknown technology risks, particularly batteries 4. Additional funding needed to deploy 100% ZEB program. Impacts to other capital and operating costs, deployment schedule and/or service levels and reliability. May require replacement on greater than 1:1 ratio. Challenges Transitioning to 100% Zero Emissions
- 19. 19 Phase 1: Electrify 2 BRT lines Continue replacing existing fleet with low-NOx CNG engines (~ 200 per year) Develop ZEB Technology Assessment and Master Plan (2019-2020) Phase 2: Implement ZEB Master Plan to deploy 100% zero emission buses. Los Angeles – Two Phase Plan
- 20. Metro Orange Line – Project Details 40 New Flyer All Electric Buses 18m, and 5 BYD 18m buses 2 - Shop Chargers Installed at Division 8 in Chatsworth 8 - En-Route Opportunity Chargers Installed at MOL Terminals in Chatsworth, Canoga and North Hollywood 20
- 22. Santiago Principle: Diesel Equivalent Operation Routes with highest potential to meet the following: Productivity: the size of the fleet and the number of drivers must be the same with BEB, and TCO must not be much higher Operation: BEB must operate with same frequencies and regularity Reliability System of buses and recharging solutions must run with similar reliability
- 23. Criteria for route selection Data base (8 julio 2017) 1.- Route length (<20 km/one direction & <20 km/returning 2.- Must run all week long 3.- Must run >11 hr/day 4.- Fleet > 15 buses <% Opportunity Charging Data base (8 julio 2017) 1.- Roure Length* (<180 km bus/day) 2.- Must run all week long 3.- Must run >11 hr/day 4.- Fleet > 15 buses 5.- < Nigth operation <% Depot Charging
- 24. Google earth UN Ruta Longitud (km) Operación (hr/día) Flota mínima necesaria (bus/día) Pendiente promedio % Pendiente máxima % 1 103Ida 13.22 20 17 0.9 -1.1 4.2 -6.4 1 103Ret 14.95 20 17 1.1 -0.8 6.3 -3.0 1 104Ida 19.72 24 43 1.3 -1 6.1 -3.8 1 104Ret 19.33 24 43 1 -1.4 2.1 -9.1 1 121Ida 16.95 19 19 0.8 -0.6 3.9 -4.8 1 121Ret 18.46 19 19 0.7 -0.9 5.4 -3.9 2 G11Ida 14.62 20 15 1 -1 3.4 -5.9 2 G11Ret 17.99 20 15 1.1 1 5.9 -4.1 2 G13Ida 12.33 19 27 1 -0.7 5.5 -4.1 2 G13Ret 11.8 19 27 0.6 -1 2.9 -6.6 2 G22Ida 13.24 19 19 0.9 -0.9 5.5 -4.8 2 G22Ret 14.59 19 19 0.7 -0.7 2.8 -4.6 3 I08Ida 8.71 19 20 0.7 -0.7 3.7 -2.7 3 I08Ret 8.0225 22 20 0.9 -1.1 5.1 -4.2 3 I09Ida 17.55 20 22 0.8 -0.6 5.1 -4.7 3 I09Ret 18.1 20 22 0.6 -0.9 4.7 -6.9 3 E04Ida 14.25 19 15 0.6 -1.1 2.9 5.7 3 E04Ret 14.57 19 15 0.9 -0.7 4.2 -2.7 3 301cIda 15.93 24 15 0.5 -0.7 2.7 -5.0 3 301cRet 15.72 22 15 0.7 -0.7 4.2 -4.4 4 402Ida 14.37 20 22 1.4 -1.2 8 -6.4 4 402Ret 14.97 20 22 1.1 -1.3 4.2 -8.4 4 403Ida 18.45 24 16 2 -1.2 9 -4.3 4 403Ret 16.7 24 16 0.8 -1.8 3.7 -8.0 4 D05Ida 16.72 20 23 1.6 -0.7 7.2 -3.8 4 D05Ret 17.2 20 23 0.7 -1.5 3.8 -7.2 5 501Ida 11.08 19 28 2.3 -1.4 11.9 -14.8 5 501Ret 10.84 18 28 1.8 -2 15.3 -13.4 6 B03Ida 17.37 23 18 1.2 -0.9 4.5 -6.4 6 B03Ret 14.82 21 18 0.9 -1.2 3.5 -9.0 6 B06Ida 16.91 20 20 1.1 -1 8.9 -4.8 6 B06Ret 16.16 19 20 1.1 -1.2 5.3 -9.2 6 C05Ida 14.85 20 22 2.8 -2.2 9.3 -13.5 6 C05Ret 16.03 20 22 2.1 -2.2 8.6 -12.3 7 F10Ida 14.02 21 20 1.2 -1 5.1 -4.4 7 F10Ret 13.93 20 20 1.1 -1.4 3.1 -5.1 7 F13Ida 9.42 19 21 1.3 -1.1 5.6 -6.5 7 F13Ret 9.88 19 21 0.9 -1 2.9 -3.5 7 F14Ida 14.42 20 28 1 -1.1 4.9 -4.3 7 F14Ret 15.4 20 28 1.1 -1.2 7.1 -8.1 • Ten routes selected for TCO analysis • Final recommendations under development
- 25. Shenzhen, China: 16,359 electric buses https://qz.com/1169690/shenzhen-in-china-has-16359-electric- buses-more-than-americas-biggest-citiess-conventional-bus- fleet/
- 26. China City Targets for NEV Buses City Target Scope Base Year Target Year Beijing 60% Existing fleet 2017 2020 Shaanxi 7000 Existing fleet 2020 Hainan 90% New and replacement buses 2020 Guangdong 75% Existing Fleet 2020 Pearl River Delta 90% New and replacement 2019 Chongming Island 100% Existing Fleet 2020 Harbin 80% Existing Fleet 2020 Changsha 100% Existing Fleet 2020
- 27. National Actions Fiscal incentives National targets Evaluation Local Actions 1. Demonstration 2. Route electrification 3. ZEB Strategy % ZEB Target Implementation Plan Conclusions: Dual Transition Strategy
- 29. Supplementary
- 30. Metro Orange Line 3-4 Chargers 1-2 Chargers 2-3 Chargers Div 8 Chatsworth (Shop chargers) 30
- 31. Dallmann, T. R., Du, L., & Minjares, R. (2017). Low-Carbon Technology Pathways for Soot-Free Urban Bus Fleets in 20 Megacities (No. Working Paper 2017-11). International Council on Clean Transportation (Vol. 356, pp. 493–494). Washington, DC. Retrieved from http://www.theicct.org/publications/low-carbon-technology-pathways-soot-free-urban-bus-fleets-20-megacities No room for high carbon fuels in a low-carbon fleet
- 32. Electric drive is cleaner than the cleanest diesel 32 Stages of Black Carbon Emissions Control Based on European Regulatory Approach in Urban Bus Fleets Source: COPERT Emissions Model
- 37. [Show Marissa graph of Europe HD CO2 pathtways] [Show Josh graph of on-road diesel consumption] Energy Transition in Transport
- 38. Technology Neutral Fuels and Vehicles a Single System Performance-Based Maximum Achievable, Cost-Effective Bellagio Principles
- 39. Inherent Advantages of Electric Drive
- 40. Story of India
- 41. Electric Drive versus Zero Emission
- 42. [Electric bus charging from diesel generator] Lifecycle Analysis and Zero Emissions
- 43. [CCAC Report on SLCP Reductions in Latin America] Near-Term Climate Benefits
Editor's Notes
- Buses contribute about one quarter (25%) of the emissions of outdoor PM in the transport sector and these are mostly diesel. We want and need to invest more in low-carbon public transportation, but not at the expense outdoor air pollution. Mayor Penyalosa returned to office with a system that was in disrepair. His staff spent nearly two years preparing a tender for more than 1,400 buses. The tender specifications were released in March of this year. The tender required Euro V diesel technology, which under national law is already required. And the tender gives to operators a small incentive to present an economic offer that supports Euro 6, gas, or electric engines. But overall the tender presented no vision. The emphasis of the Mayor was on rapidly replacing and adding to the capacity of the fleet. The Mayor experienced a strong public reaction to the proposal. Local experts gave interviews on the radio arguing for a clean transport vision for the fleet. The Mayor was defensive. On twitter he argued that 9 percent of the PM emissions were from TransMilenio. And he explained that dust is a more important contributor to air pollution. Finally 12 national members of Congress intervened and demanded that he revoke the tender. At first he defended himself. But then three days later he announced he would revise the tender specifications and virtually guarantee a switch to Euro 6 diesel, gas, or electric drive engines. The lesson from this story is that the public is aware of the health and environmental impact of diesel in particular and buses in general. With each new procurement an operator or the city have an opportunity to transition to cleaner fuels and technologies.
- Let’s start first by talking about air pollution, because this clearly motivates interest in electric buses. More than 90 percent breathe air that does not meet the WHO guidelines. WHO released a database and a report last week of the most polluted cities. It is running a campaign called Breathelife. And it will hold a World Congress on Air Pollution and Health in late October.
- But our challenges are greater than clean air. We face an existential challenge to address climate change. And this requires complete decarbonization of society. What does this mean for the transport sector in general and for buses specifically? It means we make an energy transition and move away from high carbon fuels towards low-carbon renewable fuels.
- Air pollution accelerated the introduction of alternative fueled vehicles in 2013.
- After a large swath of China was hit by severe air pollution in January 2013, the State Council announced a National Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (hereafter called the National Ten Measures) to curb air pollution. The National Ten Measures stipulates more ambitious air quality improvement goals and demands more progressive measures for the three key regions, than the rest of the country. These three regions, namely the “Jing-Jin-Ji” (Bejing, Tianjin and Hebei) region, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD), are economically highly developed, and are also where over half of China’s vehicle population is registered (Figure 1). Following the announcement of the National Ten Measures, major Chinese cities and provinces issued detailed city or provincial clean air action plans. The National Ten Measures rightly places a priority on the three key regions, where air pollution problem is more serious, and the local governments have the wherewithal to tackle air pollution. The National Ten Measures outlined four key strategies. Among these strategies was the following: Promote the use of new energy vehicles (NEVs) or clean fuel vehicles The plan encourages local governments to adopt more NEVs (including plug-in electrics or fuel cell vehicles) or clean fuel vehicles in the city fleet (such as buses, sanitation and postal trucks); it also mandates that over 60% of new bus purchases in mega cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, are NEVs or clean fuel vehicles. Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Guangdong required as of 2015 that 60% of new bus purchases to be electric vehicles or alternative fuel vehicles, in line with the requirements in the National Ten Measures. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shandong set more progressive goals for NEVs and alternative fuel vehicles, which go beyond those stipulated in the National Ten Measures.
- These subsidy amounts are multiplied by the battery capacity and the adjustment factors up to the national subsidy ceilings. Sub-national governments can deliver up to 50% of the national subsidy. 500000 CNY Fuel Cell bus subsidy equals 78,000 USD or 280,000 Brazilian Reais. Subsidies are paid to the manufacturer only after sales of qualified NEVs. Data is collected by the national government from local invoices and registrations. Regular or random checks are undertaken. Non-private vehicles must also accumulate 30,000 km before receiving the subsidy. All vehicles must have on-board real-time monitoring device.
- - In the last year twelve cities have committed to transition to a 100% zero emission bus fleet including London, Paris, Mexico City, and Los Angeles. Mexico City is electrifying one line first - Eje 8 - with support from the C40 Finance Facility. - The state of California is in the process of adopting a zero emission bus rule that will require 100% of bus purchases to be zero emission by 2029. - The state will provide incentives to fleet operators equal to 150,000 USD per battery electric bus and 350,000 USD per fuel cell bus - The state is requiring that the electric utility providers invest 750 million in charging infrastructure and propose a strategy to support electrification of the bus fleet. The state expects some utilities will decide to cover the full cost of the installation and maintenance of charging infrastructure for buses. In North America an alliance of fleet operators called “ZEBRA” shares experiences among operators and does not include the participation of industry voices unless invited
- - The City of Los Angeles has committed to transition its fleet of 2,300 buses to zero emission by 2030. - The city will first electrify two bus rapid transition lines using opportunity charging. The buses will be produced by BYD and by New Flyer. - The city at the same time is in the process of hiring a technical consultancy to design its roll-out of a 100% electrification strategy for the rest of the fleet. - The city expects cost savings that come from fewer consumables (no oil changes, fewer parts to replace, fewer maintenance staff needed). - But the city has high uncertainty around the infrastructure requirements including space needed for charging and space needed for buses if additional buses are needed to compensate for the lower range of current electric buses. - The city estimates that the total cost of electrification will be between 0.5 and 1.0 Billion USD
- - The City of Santiago, Chile is pursuing an electrification of TranSantiago - In the most recent tender of 1,200 new buses, TranSantiago requires Euro VI emissions and it will require each operator to integrate 15 zero emission buses into their operations. - The Government of Chile together with UN Environment is pursuing financial support from the Green Climate Fund to assist the electrification of 25% of its bus fleet by 2025. - Santiago is receiving technical assistance from the Finnish national research laboratory VTT on the selection of bus lines for electrification and the operational and technology deployment strategy.
- Los datos de medición de los indicadores de frecuencia y regularidad se obtienen a partir del sistema de georreferenciación instalado en cada bus, lo que permite registrar la ubicación de éstos en puntos predefinidos de la ruta, a partir de lo cual se calcula la operación real de cada una de las expediciones realizadas, en relación a lo programado en el Plan de Operaciones de cada empresa. Frecuencia: Mide la cantidad real de buses que cada empresa dispuso para sus recorridos y lo compara con el número de buses planificado, según lo indicado en los Programas de Operación aceptados por el Directorio de Transporte Público Metropolitano. La frecuencia de cada empresa concesionaria mide las salidas de buses efectivamente realizadas desde el punto de inicio de cada recorrido (cabezales y terminales). Regularidad: Mide el cumplimiento del intervalo existente entre buses de un mismo recorrido, y lo compara con lo indicado en los Programas de Operación aceptados por el Directorio de Transporte Público Metropolitano. El Indicador de Cumplimiento de Regularidad tiene por objetivo prevenir que se produzcan tiempos excesivos entre buses respecto a lo planificado, lográndose así menores tiempos de espera para los usuarios.
- The central government chose Shenzhen as a pilot city for electric transit in 2009. [List of cities committed] China faced a severe airpocalypse in 2013. China took dramatic measures. The government defined “10 key measures” for cities to implement. Among these was to require that 60 percent of new buses be ‘alternative fueled’ vehicles. This means a shift away from dedicated diesel engines. Why? Because nearly all buses sold in China at that time were diesel-powered. And China had only implemented Euro IV emission standards up until that point. (For comparison Brazil today has implemented Euro V). Many cities throughout China have now adopted zero emission targets. The national government continues its support for zero emission through subsidies and a crediting scheme. Shenzhen the first city in China to electrify their fleet using battery-electric buses. We are looking closely at Shenzhen to understand what lessons we can learn from their experience. Also important to note that zero emission buses were not the only solution. China implemented and today continues to implement measures to clean up the diesel fleet through a combination of 10ppm S fuels and emission standards equal to Euro VI, which requires the diesel particulate filter and real-world compliance with NOx controls. China promotes three forms of electric mobility. These are: battery-electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCV). Together these are called ‘new energy vehicles.’ China has been promoting NEVs since 2009 with a goal to put 5 million of these on the road by 2020. Fiscal policies are among the most important measures China uses to implement this. By end of 2015 the Central government spent 4.8 billion USD and NEV sales have increased dramatically, making China the largest market for such vehicles. Issues of subsidy fraud and poor product quality have placed doubt in the effectiveness of these policies. These subsidies were reformed in Dec 2016 for implementation during the period 2017-2020. Under the new policy, subsidies are available to buses and other vehicles types. To qualify, vehicles must meet minimum technical requirements. The size of the incentives are scaled to utility and performance of the vehicle technologies. To quality for subsidies, battery-electric buses must meet minimum energy efficiency, (Wh/kmXkg), minimum electric range, minimum battery mass as a percentage of vehicle curb mass, minimum battery energy density, and minimum charging speed of batteries. Incentives are scaled to vehicle length, battery capacity, battery energy density, and charging speed of batteries. Fuel cell buses received subisides for minimum range. And Plug-in Hybrid Electric receive a variety of subsidies as well. Furthermore, sub-national governments cannot provide more than 50% matching subsidy.
- We know that national and local action are required. We are still learning the right approach to electrification of the bus fleet so it is important to share lessons and to learn from each other - The process of fleet electrification should be managed in the following ways: - Step 1: The operator deploys a fleet of 3-5 buses to become familiar with technology. These buses are deployed along different routes to experience different operational challenges and gain confidence and experience with the technology - Step 2: The operator plans for the full electrification of a single route or line - Step 3: The operator plans for the electrification of multiple lines served by a single bus depot - Step 4: The operator plans for the electrification of all remaining lines and depots - This process is necessary to accommodate a variety of challenges. Zero emission buses, particularly dedicated battery electric buses, introduce operational challenges that require careful planning and management to avoid impacts on service and reliability. A scaled-up deployment focusing on electrification of lines and depots minimizes the impact on other lines and depots. - Technology change requires a whole process of change management. This includes not only bus drivers and maintenance staff but also the public through public awareness campaigns. Human behavior resists change and we should expect challenges along the way. But we must prepare for constant change, because the only thing that is constant is change.
- Globally around 80 percent or more of buses use diesel engines. Most of the rest use fossil gas engines. The electric drive engine is dramatically more energy efficient than a diesel engine
- Euro 0 to Euro VI. We have been moving incrementally to make combustion engines cleaner. Today a diesel bus engine is X percent cleaner than an engine sold X years ago.
- - What does a zero emission bus cost? - Give estimates from ARB, ICCT, and others - Discuss lifecycle cost estimates for individual buses - Discuss the importance of looking at lifecycle cost for the operation of a fleet of buses along a bus line or depot and not simply a single bus - Discuss approaches to financing - Basic challenge is to see how operational savings can cover capital costs. In many countries these two funding streams are separated. But in countries that use private concessions this is more feasible. Changing how we pay for buses can accelerate the introduction of zero emission buses. - Direct subsidies from government, as with India and United States, are being used actively. - Joint procurement as with fuel cell buses in Europe - Vehicle leasing or battery leasing - Brazilian development bank reductions to import tariffs on electric buses - Involve the electricity utility in the discussions - A properly designed charging strategy can benefit the utility provider and increase their profits. A negotiation with the utility provider should result in lower electricity rates as a benefit of this.
- - What is the range of an electric bus? - Give different examples from different manufacturers, such as Proterra and BYD. Discuss relationship between battery size and range. - Explain that operators should electrify the shortest routes first, because these will allow a 1:1 replacement with diesels. Explain that each operator should assess the average distance each bus travels along each line in a single day and focus the replacement of buses from the shortest range to the longest range buses. Longer routes may require more than 1 electric bus for each diesel bus replaced. - As costs of buses come down and range improves, this will become less of an issue over time. - Explain the trade-off between range and operations. Larger range requires more batteries. More batteries increase the weight of the bus and reduce the available space for passengers. - Explain that opportunity charging eliminates these trade-offs, but introduces new trade-offs. Opportunity charging buses are less flexible in their deployment and can only operate along lines with fast charging capability. Opportunity charging also introduces demand charging and adds stress on the electrical grid that must be managed. Charging is the other factor to consider. And arranging for the distribution of electricity at the right price is another factor.
- [If we are going to reduce the fleet-wide emissions of CO2 in the transport sector and still allow for growth, we need more than just efficiency measures. We need a fuel switch.
- We see certain inherent advantages of electric drive engines that go beyond climate. The first is that these can be zero emission at the tailpipe. Because these engines have no combustion, we do not need to worry about whether the emission control systems are designed properly, or whether they are properly maintained. We do not need a compliance and enforcement program. We do not need an inspection and maintenance program. We get zero tailpipe emissions over the life of the vehicle. We do not need to worry about: Durability Real-world versus laboratory Malfunction Removal of the emission control device Maintenance of the emission control device
- The Government of India has committed to 100% electrification of new buses by 2030. State of Karnataka has an EV policy. The Society of Indian Automakers has endorsed this strategy. Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation is procuring zero emission buses. - The government has provided funds to 11 cities to each procure 40 electric buses - India is more seriously exploring battery swapping strategies
- A pure dedicated electric drive bus will produce zero emissions from the tailpipe. But there are some important distinctions to make: An electric drive combined with a combustion engine (diesel or gas) is not zero emissions Electric drive can receive power from multiple sources On-Board Storage Batteries Hydrogen No Storage Induction Catenary
- We must be careful about the use of this phrase ‘zero emissions’. It is not enough to look at the emissions from the tailpipe. We must consider the emissions produced in the production of electricity – both the emissions damaging to climate and also to public health. For CO2 we must look at the carbon intensity, which is the CO2 emissions produced per unit energy. Other pollutants have a health and climate impact similar to a vehicle tailpipe. Brazil is a country, unlike so many others, where the upstream emissions from electricity production are low. The opportunities presented today to decarbonize the bus fleet are significant at the national level. But we must also be wary of other non-fossil fuels. The problem after all is not so much with fossil fuels being fossil, but that all fossil fuels are high in carbon. From a lifecycle perspective this can also be true of non-fossil high carbon fuels. This can be the case with certain biofuels, particularly biodiesel.