10 trends for 2015 - from Havas

1. 10 2015for
TRENDS
December 2014

2. 2
(Brought to you in Pantone’s Color of the Year
for 2015, Marsala, chosen because it “enriches
our mind, body and soul, exuding confidence
and stability.” We could all definitely use that
in 2015. Find out why …)

3. 3
1 Self-Everything
NOW
• Self- is in the zeitgeist, today’s must-have
ingredient in ...
–– -confidence, -esteem, -discipline, -respect, –regard
–– -doubt, -pity, -compassion, -acceptance,
-improvement
–– -employment, -publishing, -promotion,
-preservation
–– -awareness, -knowledge, -tracking
Next
• Self- (and other language equivalents) will be
the anchor
• In an uncertain world, self is the one person
we can rely on

4. 4
1 Self-Tracking
NOW
• Self-tracking used to be for geeks and nerds,
but no more
• Fitness wearables and data sharing are
mainstream
• Smartphones track sleep, mood, exercise and
more
• Apple is making it chic with HealthKit and the
upcoming Watch
Next
• Self-tracking will become a typical healthcare
tool, making key data—blood pressure, blood
sugar, heart rate variability—visible to users
and healthcare professionals

5. 5
1 Self-Education and Self-Improvement
NOW
• Everyone needs to upskill to avoid
replacement by robots
• So learning has to become a lifelong process
• But formal education is becoming really
expensive
• Solutions are proliferating—everything from
MOOCs to self-help
• Mindfulness is the ultimate in self-control, one
session at a time
Next
• Parents, students, governments and
corporations will be looking hard at
educational value for the money
• A decline in internships and growth of paid
formal apprenticeship schemes will serve the
self-interest of employees and employers

6. 6
1 Self-Policing: We the Police
NOW
• Digital technology and social media make
police of us all
• Smartphones and security cameras capture
all behavior
• Sharing the evidence is just a link away
• Domestic violence, police brutality, animal
mistreatment …
Next
• Digital capture will be the norm, not the
exception
• Frequent exposure of immoral, illegal,
embarrassing or questionable behavior
• Storms of public outrage that rise fast and
blow over faster

7. 7
1 Self-Everything
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• The growing importance of self- means that
people are becoming more self-centered, not
necessarily more selfish
• The yin is self- as the steady reference point
in life and the target for marketing (“you’re
worth it,” “have it your way) and technology
• The yang is people’s need to connect with
one another and to mean something to other
people
• Brands need a deeper understanding of the
evolving self in a digital world
Longer term
• Brands need to help consumers with that
yang

8. 8
2 Middle Class Redefined
NOW
• The U.S. middle class median household
income of $51,107 is $664 below 1989
• The cost of a U.S. college education is up 1,120
percent since 1978
• Healthcare costs are up 601 percent since
1978
• Automation and outsourcing is hitting
employment and wages
• We’re seeing a relentless push to upskill or
trade down for less money
Next
• The middle class growing globally: up to 3.2
billion in 2020 from 1.8 billion in 2009
• We’ll see a shift in what it means to be middle
class

9. 9
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• Higher living costs and stagnant/falling incomes make for
limited consumer spending power in developed markets
• Lower incomes => more demand for “value” products =>
corporate cost-cutting => lower employment and incomes
• There is a growing “middle class” in emerging markets—but at
lower income levels and higher savings rates than developed
markets’ middle classes
• Many more brands target consumers for middle-class services
(e.g., insurance, healthcare) but at a lower per-capita spend
Longer term
• Emerging-market brands and corporations will be better
placed to develop “value” products and services for the
global middle class
• Growth of accessible luxury
2 Middle Class Redefined

10. 10
3 Internet Upping the Look-at-Me Ante
NOW
• The Internet now means anyone can post—
and see—anything
• Now everyone is competing for attention
• What grabs attention influences/shapes the
wider culture
• It’s not just kittens, quotes and funny clips
–– Also porn => sexting, twerking, “breaking the
Internet”
–– Also violence => beheadings, TV shows, real life
Next
• Unbearably shocking => horribly fascinating
=> nasty normal

11. 11
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• A growing temptation for brands to push
the envelope and go outrageous to grab
attention might be right for some brands
• It’s important to distinguish between “look
at me” tactics and “value me” strategy
• Brands need to learn deeply from “look at
me” successes—but remember that they are
short-lived and quickly eclipsed
Longer term
• The challenge will be engaging the attention
of generations raised on “Grand Theft Auto”
and “Call of Duty”
3 Internet Upping the Look-at-Me Ante

12. 12
4 Bugged About Bugs
NOW
• In West Africa, the Ebola outbreak has killed
thousands
• In the U.S., Ebola caused panic but few deaths
• People are primed for drastic action to
prevent more
• Fears of terrorists or criminals developing
killer bugs
• Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands routinely
die from flu and MRSA
Next
• Biological infections the main threat in
developing countries
• Digital infections the main threat in
developed countries
• Which will cause the first major catastrophe
of the 21st century?

13. 13
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• Fear of spectacular killer bugs driven by general sense
of anxiety and threat; like fear of terrorism, it’s much
higher than the real risk level
• The reverse is true for many real risk factors (weight,
inactivity, etc.): Concern is lower than the real risk level
• Net-net: Consistent consumer misunderstanding of risk
drives sentiment
• If anxiety is the thing, then maybe business should just
go with the flow (e.g., marketing hazmat protection)
Longer term
• Opportunities for special “anxiety relief” packages
to insure against high-impact/low-probability events
(pandemic infection, terrorism, shark attack and more)
4 Bugged About Bugs

14. 14
5 Safe Eating: What’s Left?
NOW
• Is sugar to blame for the epidemic of obesity
and diabetes?
• “Sugar” also comes from typical staples,
including corn
• The case isn’t definitive, but the weight of
opinion is building
• Growing concerns about intolerance to wheat
(gluten), soy, dairy (lactose)
• Escalating healthcare budgets
Next
• Support for taxes on unhealthy food and
drinks, à la tobacco
• Support for more regulation of the food
industry

15. 15
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• Little substantial threat to business; consumers
might fuss but will always prefer easy options
• The “case” against Big Food is much less clear-
cut than the case against tobacco—and even that
took decades
• Marketers must stay ahead of “latest research
says” and changing dietary beliefs
• Corporations need to keep products
reformulated in the light of emerging health
research
Longer term
• Compromising internal documents will be leaked
• Risk of punitive lawsuits from organizations with
lots of money at stake
5 Safe Eating: What’s Left?

16. 16
6 Friend/Enemy Confusion
NOW
• ISIS is the enemy, and Iran is against them =>
Iran a friend?
• Love technology, but it’s addictive and might
be killing jobs
• Is online friendship the enemy of face-to-face
friendship?
• Does security surveillance make us safer or
more vulnerable to abuses of power?
• Why did the U.S. spy on its close ally Germany?
Next
• Modern life is complex, and people prefer
simplicity
• Watch for simple rule-of-thumb responses
(X good, Y bad) in everything from food and
health to politics
• Volatile flip-flops will occur as people cycle
through embracing/rejecting/embracing
(brands, products, celebrities, politicians …)

17. 17
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• Marketing-savvy consumers are on the
alert for untrustworthy behavior from
brands, corporations and causes (and
politicians)
• They are not sentimental about the
relationship between them and brands
• They know that whatever brands
say, business priorities usually trump
customer needs (they are frenemies)
Longer term
• Trust in brands and corporations is likely
to decline further in developed countries
6 Friend/Enemy Confusion

18. 18
7 Women Prevail
NOW
• Women are taking leadership roles
• In politics: Angela Merkel in Germany, with
strong contenders Theresa May (U.K.) and
Hillary Clinton (U.S.)
• In business: Virginia Rometty (IBM), Ursula
Burns (Xerox), Meg Whitman (HP), Marissa
Mayer (Yahoo!)
• In agenda-setting: Nobel Laureate Malala
Yousafzai, champion of female education
Next
• Increasing “denormalization” of casual sexism
• Growing activism over domestic violence,
sexual crimes, harassment and gender
equality

19. 19
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• Increased sensitivity to gender/sex issues isn’t
just a passing fad
• It’s a deep shift in social attitudes, and
marketing must stay ahead of it
• Women will get seriously down on brands
that don’t take them seriously
• Brands that only pay lip service to respecting
women will get exposed
Longer term
• Sexism in brands and business will become as
irrelevant as nondigital thinking
• We’ll see a rising appetite for new variations
on feminine and feminism
7 Women Prevail

20. 20
8 The Call of What’s Wild
NOW
• Life is increasingly urban, indoors, digital
and virtual, automated, air-conditioned and
mediated—in other words, tame
• Meanwhile, wildlife is dying off fast
• There’s a growing appeal for “rewilding”
ecosystems
• And reconnecting with “wild” through paleo
diet, hiking, barefoot running, pets, adventure
trips and large urban parks
Next
• In the 1960s, baby boomers cut loose and
went wild
• Faced with climate change, debt and paying
for boomers, will millennials also rebel and
get wild?

21. 21
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• Yang of adventure and outdoors versus yin of
comfort and indoors
• Attraction of cities with easy access to
nature/wilderness
• Growing appeal of back-to-nature products
and imagery
• Adventure marketing to women is shattering
any remaining gender stereotypes
Longer term
• Thoreau redux with scientific underpinnings
• “Rewilding” in food, leisure and healthcare,
taking paleo further and deeper—eating insects,
treatments with wild microbiota and more
8 The Call of What’s Wild

22. 22
9 Small (Business) Is the New Big
NOW
• Small businesses account for 75 percent of U.S.
businesses
• Most start out home-based; more than half stay that way
• Most don’t earn big; the average revenues are
$44,000 per year
• But they enjoy freedom from commuting and freedom
to choose work hours, suppliers and good causes
• And there’s more job security than with cost-cutting
corporations
• There’s the sense that big organizations—corporate
or political—don’t work (for regular people) anymore
Next
• Technology, culture and mindset will drive small-
business formation
• Growing challenges to big organizations from
startups and breakaways

23. 23
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• Growing mistrust of Big Business motives and
methods in many countries, including U.S.
• Resentment at Big Business “tax sheltering”
income while small business pays up
Longer term
• Watch for consumer preference for small/local
business offerings that compete well enough
on price and quality
9 Small (Business) Is the New Big

24. 24
10 Home Is Where Everything Is
NOW
• Global is now in the palm of everybody’s
hand—images, news, interactions from around
the world
• Less need to travel far to work or to connect
with global people, places, things
• This has made local more important—flesh-
and-blood friends, handymen, community
and causes
• Now people are seeking the right balance of
global and local for their needs
Next
• As more possessions become digital, less
space is needed
• Homes becoming smaller and even portable

25. 25
BUSINESS AND MARKETING IMPLICATIONS
Short and medium term
• Brands/corporations need to get physically
and emotionally closer to consumers—closer
to home
• Decreasing living space affecting type, size
and quantity of products bought
• More interest in (trans)portability
Longer term
• Shift away from owning costly big homes
(e.g., McMansions) and possessions (e.g.,
SUVs)
• Shift toward co- or fractional ownership
10 Home Is Where Everything Is

26. 26
•• News stories and social media updates pour in a deluge of information
that’s like drinking from a fire hose.
•• We see scary events unfold in real time halfway around the world and
feel involved and threatened, yet powerless to do anything.
•• Time and distance have become irrelevant, and everything is moving
at warp speed, making individuals easily feel overwhelmed and lost.
One important strategy: Focusing on what’s small and local (which is
both comforting and compelling) is a great way to find—what else, in
2015?—a sense of self.
What It All Means

27. 27
Stay local.
Think virtual.
Stay healthy.
27

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Thank you