The document discusses scenario planning, which involves generating potential future scenarios to help organizations prepare for an uncertain future. It provides details on the 10 step scenario planning process, which includes framing the challenge, gathering information, identifying driving forces, defining critical uncertainties, generating scenarios, fleshing out story lines, validating scenarios, assessing implications, identifying signposts, and monitoring scenarios over time. It also gives examples of defining uncertainties and generating different scenarios based on how those uncertainties may play out. The overall goal of scenario planning is to create detailed descriptions of potential future situations to help inform present-day decision making.

1. CURSO
INNOVACIÓN /
DESIGN THINKING
CURSO: INNOVACIÓN CENTRADA EN EL USUARIO: DESIGN THINKING Sesión 08

2. Future Thinking
CURSO: INNOVACIÓN / DESIGN THINKING

3. Scenario Planning
CURSO: INNOVACIÓN CENTRADA EN EL USUARIO: DESIGN THINKING Sesión 04

4. Scenarios are detailed descriptions of an intended experience from the
individual´s perspective. They go hand-in-hand with storyboards, but are
text-based rather than illustrated. Since no drawings is involved, the barrier to
create them is even lower than with storyboards.
Jim Kalbach. Mapping Experiences.

5. The Process
1. Framing the challenge.
2. Gathering information.
3. Identifying driving forces.
4. Defining the future´s critical “either/or” uncertainties.
5. Generating the scenarios.
6. Fleshing them out and creating story lines.
7. Validating the scenarios and identifying further research needed.
8. Assessing their implications and defining possible responses.
9. Identifying signposts.
10. Monitoring and updating the scenarios as time goes on.
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.

6. Step 1. Framing the challenge.
Mission:
● Industry Association. What are the possibilities for the future of our
industry?
Project or goal:
● A health food company. How can we introduce our best-selling
product in a new geographic market?
Crisis situation:
● An airline. A low-cost competitor just launched a service on our most
profitable route. How should we respond?
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.

7. Step 2. Gathering information
If you could see 10 years into the future, what two or three things would you
look for that would help you understand how the future has turned out?
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.

8. Step 3. Identifying driving forces
● Social
● Technological
● Economic
● Business methods
● Natural resources
● Political
● Demographic
● International
● Legal
● Environmental
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.

9. Step 4. Defining the future´s critical “either/or” uncertainties
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.
Today
Tomorrow
Short term
Long term
R
Extreme Scenario +
Extreme Scenario -
Time
RExtrapolation

10. Step 4. Defining the future´s critical “either/or” uncertainties
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.
PREDETERMINED ELEMENTS/TRENDS
CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES
SECONDARY ELEMENTS
High
Low
Low HighUncertainly
Potential
impact

11. Step 4. Defining the future´s critical “either/or” uncertainties
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.
Cost of energy
Cheap energy Expensive energy
Regulatory
environment
Relaxed Strict
Primary growth
market
Domestic market
International
markets
Educational tools and
techniques
Traditionals
methods dominate
Technology-based
methods dominate

12. Step 5. Generating the scenarios
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.
Domestic market
International
markets
Traditionals
methods dominate
Technology-based
methods dominate
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Educationaltoolsandtechniques
Primary growth market

13. Step 6. Fleshing them out and creating story lines
The ideal result is a description of the future end state, a detailed picture of
what that world looks like and feels like - along with a story explaining how it
came into being (i.e., the developments taking place over the next 10 years that
lead to that end state).
Woody Wade. Scenario Planning. A Field Guide to the Future.

14. “The entertainment system was belting out the Beatles’ “We Can Work It Out”
when the phone rang. When Pete answered, his phone turned the sound down
by sending a message to all the other local devices that had a volume control.
His sister, Lucy, was on the line from the doctor’s office: “Mom needs to see a
specialist and then has to have a series of physical therapy sessions. Biweekly
or something. I’m going to have my agent set up the appointments.” Pete
immediately agreed to share the chauffeuring”.
Tim Berners-Lee. The Semantic Web.
Jim Kalbach. Mapping Experiences.

15. @omarvite