INCLUSIVE TRANSFORMATION IN THE DAIRY SECTOR

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This document summarizes data from a survey of Ethiopian dairy farmers regarding transformations in the dairy sector. The survey included 955 farms in major dairy producing areas supplying Addis Ababa. It found that over time, dairy farms have increased adoption of modern inputs like cross-bred cows, artificial insemination, and purchased feeds. However, remote and small farms of 1-2 cows still lag behind in access to services and adoption. While the dairy sector has grown positively, continued efforts are needed to further stimulate growth and make transformations more inclusive of all farmers.

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INCLUSIVE TRANSFORMATION IN THE
DAIRY SECTOR
Bart M., Yetimwork H., Seneshaw T., and Agajie T.
Inclusive Transformation of Rural Ethiopia: Patterns and Options
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
May 2, 2019

INTRODUCTION
• Transformation in
Ethiopia
• Drivers:
GDP growth
Urbanization
Infrastructure
• Dairy sector?
Policy
Lack of good data

DATA
• Primary data: survey fielded in
January – February 2018
• Focus: major producing areas
supplying Addis
• Stratified by distance to Addis:
• Addis Ababa: 97 farms;
• Suburban: 256 farms;
• Rural (North and West
Shewa): 602 farms

DATA
• Look at :
• 1/ Remote vs non-remote farms
• 2/ Small vs large dairy farms

DAIRY CONSUMPTION ADDIS DAIRY PROCESSING COMPANIES
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005 2011 2016
USD/capita
Dairy consumption per capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Totalnumber

Upstream
- Yields
- Access to services
- Adoption of modern inputs

Yield
200400600800
1000
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
200040006000
yield(l/year/cow)
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

Services
- Extension:
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.2.4.6.8
1
ShareDAs(mostly)available
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

Adoption
- Cross bred cows
0
.1.2.3
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
.2.4.6.8
1
sharecross-bredcows
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

Adoption
- A.I.
0
.2.4.6
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.2.4.6.8
1
ShareAI(mostly)available
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

Feed
- Grazing only
.2.3.4.5.6.7
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.1.2.3.4.5
Shareusinggrazingonly
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

Feed
-Purchased Wheat Bran
0
.1.2.3.4.5
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
.2.4.6.8
1
Shareusingpurchasedwheatbran
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

Feed
-Purchased Premixed brands
0
.2.4.6.8
Shareusingpre-mixedfeedbrands
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.05
.1
.15
.2
.25
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier

Health
-Distance to nearest pharmacy
406080
100120140
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
20406080
100
Walkingtime(minutes)togetmedicine
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

Conclusion
• Large changes in the dairy sector in Ethiopia
• Implications:
(1) Positive dynamics, but from a low base - more effort
needed to further stimulate dynamics
(2) Increasing importance of purchased feed
(3) The role of market access
(4) Inclusiveness of remote and small dairy farms

DISCUSSION PAPER (ESSP WP 129):
“TRANSFORMING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS IN ETHIOPIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE DAIRY SECTOR”
BART M. (IFPRI), YETIMWORK H. (PSI), SENESHAW T.(KULEUVEN) AND AGAJIE TESFAYE (EIAR)
THANK YOU

Adoption
- Artificial Insemination (A.I)
0.1.2.3.4.5
ShareusingA.I.
0 50 100 150
travel costs (birr/person)
95% CI at time of survey
95% CI ten years earlier

SUPPLY ADDIS ABABA
37%
32%
31%
Supply liquid milk
Rural Sub-urban Urban
44
28
11
16
Supply pasteurized milk (%)
Rural Sub-urban Urban Large farms

DAIRY CONSUMPTION ADDIS
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Poorest
quintile
quintile
2
quintile
3
quintile
4
Richest
quintile
USD/capita
Liquid milk expenditures (2016)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005 2011 2016
USD/capita
Dairy consumption per capita

DAIRY PROCESSING COMPANIES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Totalnumberofdairy
processingcompanies
- 100 200 300 400
Capacity
Actual
Liter/dayShola
Family milk
Sebeta agro-industry/Mama
Elemtu
Holland dairy plc
Etete
Ada cooperative

ARTIFICIAL INSEMINATION
Region Year Production Distribution Insemination Pregnancy Calves born
A.I. at the national level national 2007 118,948 124,246 71,103 25,190 24,181
3-year moving average national 2016 842,185 825,335 386,049 166,370 229,618
A.I. in the Oromia region Oromia 2012 13,912
levels Oromia 2017 232,144

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This document discusses constrained multiplier analysis by relaxing the assumption of unlimited factor resources. It introduces the concept of constraining some sectors' production levels to model resource constraints in agriculture, mining, and government services. The constrained multiplier formula is derived, distinguishing between supply-unconstrained and constrained sectors. A matrix format is used to represent the formula, with the constrained multiplier calculated as the inverse of the identity matrix minus an adjusted coefficient matrix, multiplied by the exogenous components matrix. Readers are directed to a worksheet exercise to calculate constrained multipliers using the mathematical equations and Excel functions.

Unconstrained Multiplier Analysis.pptx

essp2

This document provides an introduction to multiplier analysis using social accounting matrices (SAM). It outlines how economic linkages transmit the effects of exogenous demand shocks through an economy. The direct and indirect effects are explained, with indirect effects including consumption and production linkages. An unconstrained SAM multiplier model is presented, with formulas derived to calculate economy-wide output, income, and sectoral responses to exogenous changes in demand. Exercises are provided to build a multiplier model in Excel and calculate multipliers.

1.Introduction to SAMs.pptx

essp2

The document provides an introduction to social accounting matrices (SAM) and economywide analysis. It discusses key concepts such as: - SAMs capture the circular flow of income and expenditures between households, firms, government, and the rest of the world. - Economywide analysis considers how changes in one sector can impact other sectors through economic linkages. - A SAM shows payments by columns and receipts by rows to ensure double-entry bookkeeping and macroeconomic consistency. - Building a SAM requires data from various sources like national accounts and household surveys, which are reconciled using statistical techniques.

ESS Data from a Users Perspective

essp2

Sustainable Food Systems

essp2

This document discusses sustainable food systems. It defines a food system as encompassing all actors and activities involved in food production, processing, distribution, consumption and disposal. A sustainable food system is one that provides food security and nutrition for current and future generations without compromising economic, social or environmental sustainability. It must be economically viable, socially equitable, and have neutral or positive environmental impacts. The food system is driven by biophysical, demographic, technological, political, economic and socio-cultural factors.

Impact of the PSNP (2006-2021)

essp2

The document summarizes Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), a large social protection program that aims to smooth food consumption and protect assets for chronically food insecure communities. Key points: - The PSNP provides direct transfers and public works projects to build community assets like roads and irrigation. It supports up to 8 million beneficiaries with a budget of $0.5 billion annually. - Independent evaluations show the PSNP improved household food security and dietary diversity but had little impact on child nutrition outcomes. It did not reduce labor supply or crowd out private transfers. - While the PSNP enhanced resilience, graduation remains a challenge. Targeting in lowland areas also proved difficult. Ensuring timely payments

Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-19 in Ethiopia

essp2

1) The study examines the impacts of COVID-19 on food marketing margins in Ethiopia using phone surveys of farmers, wholesalers, and retailers conducted in February 2020 and May 2020. 2) The surveys found that over 50% of farmers reported receiving less income in May compared to usual times, though most planned to continue vegetable production. Wholesalers reported decreased transport options and client numbers but stable or lower costs, while most retailers saw lower client numbers but stable or lower costs and losses. 3) Retail prices for the main vegetables remained quite stable between February and May, suggesting marketing margins absorbed most impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on vegetable supply chains in Ethiopia during the

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Food Security in Ethiopia – An Interim Analysis

essp2

This document summarizes the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security in Ethiopia. It finds that the pandemic is likely to have large short-term negative economic effects through impacts on exports, imports, remittances and domestic lockdown measures. This will reduce GDP, household incomes, employment and agricultural market functioning. Many households are already experiencing income losses, higher food prices and shifts away from nutritious foods. Recommendations include continuing the government's response, addressing misinformation, expanding social safety nets and implementing selective lockdowns.

COVID-19 and its impact on Ethiopia’s agri-food system, food security, and nu...

essp2

The document summarizes the effects of COVID-19 on agricultural value chains in Ethiopia. It discusses how measures taken to prevent spread of the virus, such as closing land borders and restricting movement between regional states, have reduced economic activity. It then outlines an assessment of local rural-urban value chains to understand how the pandemic is impacting farmers' incomes, market access, and food security. The assessment will focus on commodities like potatoes, onions, and tomatoes that rely on transportation between rural and urban areas. Recommendations will be made on how to minimize disruptions to the agricultural sector during this crisis.

Key Reforms in Agricultural Sector

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Parental Aspirations for Children's Education: Is There a "Girl Effect"? Expe...

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AFFORDABILITY OF Nutritious foods IN ETHIOPIA

essp2

This document summarizes research on the affordability of nutritious diets in Ethiopia. It finds that between 2001 and 2017, the cost of the least expensive diet providing adequate calories and nutrients for an adult woman increased 67% from $0.91 to $1.52. While real prices of some staple foods have decreased in recent years, prices of nutrient-rich foods like dairy, eggs, and meat have increased substantially. However, overall affordability has improved due to rising incomes. Still, ensuring adequate supply of nutritious foods is important to keep their prices low.

The EAT Lancet Publication: Implications for Nutrition Health and Planet

essp2

The document discusses a publication by the EAT-Lancet Commission that aimed to define global scientific targets for healthy diets from sustainable food systems. It established a reference diet of 2500 calories per day consisting of vegetables, fruits, whole grains, plant proteins, unsaturated fats, and limited red meat and sugar. Current diets vary widely from this target. The commission also set planetary boundaries related to greenhouse gas emissions, land and water use, and nutrient flows to define a safe operating space for food production. Global modeling was used to identify combinations of measures needed to meet dietary targets sustainably by 2050, such as shifting diets, reducing food waste, and improving agricultural practices.

Sustainable Undernutrition Reduction in Ethiopia (SURE): Evaluation studies

essp2

The SURE program is a government-led multisectoral intervention in Ethiopia that aims to reduce undernutrition through a package of interventions like joint household visits, cooking demonstrations, and media campaigns. Evaluation studies of SURE used a quasi-experimental design and found that children's dietary diversity is positively associated with reduced stunting, and that household production of fruits and vegetables was linked to increased child dietary diversity and reduced stunting. However, the studies also found variability in the delivery of nutrition messages across households and limited awareness of nutrition guidelines among local officials.

Policies and Programs on food and Nutrition in Ethiopia

essp2

This document outlines policies and programs on food and nutrition in Ethiopia. It discusses nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions, and the pathways through which nutrition-sensitive interventions can affect diet and food systems. It then provides an overview of Ethiopia's policy landscape on food and nutrition, outlining various strategies and policies that aim to improve nutrition, including the Food, Nutrition and Policy, Agriculture Growth Program Phase II, Productive Safety Net Program, and National Nutrition Program. The document concludes that Ethiopia has a favorable policy environment for improving diets and nutrition, but effective implementation, coordination, evidence-based scaling up of interventions, and strong monitoring and evaluation are still needed.

Integrated Use of Social and Behaviour Change Interventions Improved Compleme...

essp2

Bottlenecks for healthy diets in Ethiopia

essp2

1) Access to nutritious foods is challenging for many households in Ethiopia, especially low-income households, due to high costs and an inability to afford animal-source proteins, zinc, iron, and other micronutrients that are critical for young children's development. 2) A study found that households in Ethiopia spend around 25,000 birr per year on food, with 14,535 birr from purchases and 11,000 birr from own production, but still struggle to meet half of nutritional requirements for children under two. 3) Factors like religious fasting practices and lack of separate feeding plates for children can negatively impact children's diet diversity in Ethiopia. Increased investment in small and

Diets and stunting in Ethiopia

essp2

Kaleab Baye presented on diets and stunting in Ethiopia. Stunting rates have declined overall but inequalities persist, with the lowest wealth quintile having the highest rates. Complementary foods in Ethiopia are often low in quantity, diversity, and quality. Improving maternal and child nutrition requires interventions across food systems to increase availability, accessibility, and affordability of nutrient-dense foods as well as improving caregiver feeding practices and maternal health. Comprehensive measures are needed to assess diet quality and reduce consumption of unhealthy foods and risks to food safety.

Irrigation-Nutrition Linkages

essp2

This document discusses the linkages between irrigation and nutrition in Ethiopia. It notes that Ethiopia's Food and Nutrition Policy and Nutrition Sensitive Agricultural Strategy recognize the role of irrigation in improving nutritional outcomes. There are several pathways through which irrigation can impact nutrition, such as increasing food production, household income, access to water, and women's empowerment. Studies show that children and women in irrigating households in Ethiopia have better dietary diversity and nutrient intake, as well as reduced stunting and wasting, compared to non-irrigating households. Therefore, promoting irrigation can help improve nutrition in addition to increasing income and agricultural yields.

Access to health and agricultural extension services

essp2

The document summarizes research on access to health and agricultural extension services in rural Ethiopia. It finds that the most remote rural households have less exposure and access to these important services. Remote farmers and those in remote villages are less likely to be visited by Development Agents and receive advice on agriculture. While Health Extension Workers do not vary as much by remoteness of villages, the most remote households within villages have less contact with HEWs. The research concludes that remoteness negatively impacts both nutritional outcomes and delivery of services, suggesting investments in rural roads and incentives for extension agents in remote areas could help address this challenge.

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一比一原版(theauckland毕业证书)新西兰奥克兰大学毕业证成绩单如何办理

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原版定制【微信:741003700】《(theauckland毕业证书)新西兰奥克兰大学毕业证学位证成绩单》【微信:741003700】成绩单、雅思、外壳、留信学历认证永久存档查询，采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。【业务选择办理准则】一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份毕业证【Q微信741003700】文凭即可二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【Q微信741003700】即可三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。

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一比一原版(theauckland毕业证书)新西兰奥克兰大学毕业证成绩单如何办理

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INCLUSIVE TRANSFORMATION IN THE DAIRY SECTOR

1. Photo Credit Goes Here INCLUSIVE TRANSFORMATION IN THE DAIRY SECTOR Bart M., Yetimwork H., Seneshaw T., and Agajie T. Inclusive Transformation of Rural Ethiopia: Patterns and Options Addis Ababa, Ethiopia May 2, 2019

2. INTRODUCTION • Transformation in Ethiopia • Drivers: GDP growth Urbanization Infrastructure • Dairy sector? Policy Lack of good data

3. DATA • Primary data: survey fielded in January – February 2018 • Focus: major producing areas supplying Addis • Stratified by distance to Addis: • Addis Ababa: 97 farms; • Suburban: 256 farms; • Rural (North and West Shewa): 602 farms

4. DATA • Look at : • 1/ Remote vs non-remote farms • 2/ Small vs large dairy farms

5. Dairy Marketing Farmers

6. DAIRY CONSUMPTION ADDIS DAIRY PROCESSING COMPANIES - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2005 2011 2016 USD/capita Dairy consumption per capita 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Totalnumber

7. Upstream - Yields - Access to services - Adoption of modern inputs

8. Yield 200400600800 1000 0 50 100 150 Travel costs (birr/person) at time of survey 10 years earlier 0 200040006000 yield(l/year/cow) 1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows at time of survey 10 years earlier

9. Services - Extension: 0 .2.4.6.8 1 0 50 100 150 Travel costs (birr/person) at time of survey 10 years earlier 0 .2.4.6.8 1 ShareDAs(mostly)available 1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows at time of survey 10 years earlier

10. Adoption - Cross bred cows 0 .1.2.3 0 50 100 150 Travel costs (birr/person) at time of survey 10 years earlier .2.4.6.8 1 sharecross-bredcows 1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows at time of survey 10 years earlier

11. Adoption - A.I. 0 .2.4.6 0 50 100 150 Travel costs (birr/person) at time of survey 10 years earlier 0 .2.4.6.8 1 ShareAI(mostly)available 1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows at time of survey 10 years earlier

12. Feed - Grazing only .2.3.4.5.6.7 0 50 100 150 Travel costs (birr/person) at time of survey 10 years earlier 0 .1.2.3.4.5 Shareusinggrazingonly 1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows at time of survey 10 years earlier

13. Feed -Purchased Wheat Bran 0 .1.2.3.4.5 0 50 100 150 Travel costs (birr/person) at time of survey 10 years earlier .2.4.6.8 1 Shareusingpurchasedwheatbran 1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows at time of survey 10 years earlier

14. Feed -Purchased Premixed brands 0 .2.4.6.8 Shareusingpre-mixedfeedbrands 1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows at time of survey 10 years earlier 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 0 50 100 150 Travel costs (birr/person) at time of survey 10 years earlier

15. Health -Distance to nearest pharmacy 406080 100120140 0 50 100 150 Travel costs (birr/person) at time of survey 10 years earlier 20406080 100 Walkingtime(minutes)togetmedicine 1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows at time of survey 10 years earlier

16. Conclusion • Large changes in the dairy sector in Ethiopia • Implications: (1) Positive dynamics, but from a low base - more effort needed to further stimulate dynamics (2) Increasing importance of purchased feed (3) The role of market access (4) Inclusiveness of remote and small dairy farms

17. DISCUSSION PAPER (ESSP WP 129): “TRANSFORMING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS IN ETHIOPIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE DAIRY SECTOR” BART M. (IFPRI), YETIMWORK H. (PSI), SENESHAW T.(KULEUVEN) AND AGAJIE TESFAYE (EIAR) THANK YOU

18. Adoption - Artificial Insemination (A.I) 0.1.2.3.4.5 ShareusingA.I. 0 50 100 150 travel costs (birr/person) 95% CI at time of survey 95% CI ten years earlier

19. SUPPLY ADDIS ABABA 37% 32% 31% Supply liquid milk Rural Sub-urban Urban 44 28 11 16 Supply pasteurized milk (%) Rural Sub-urban Urban Large farms

20. DAIRY CONSUMPTION ADDIS - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Poorest quintile quintile 2 quintile 3 quintile 4 Richest quintile USD/capita Liquid milk expenditures (2016) - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2005 2011 2016 USD/capita Dairy consumption per capita

21. DAIRY PROCESSING COMPANIES 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Totalnumberofdairy processingcompanies - 100 200 300 400 Capacity Actual Liter/dayShola Family milk Sebeta agro-industry/Mama Elemtu Holland dairy plc Etete Ada cooperative

22. ADOPTION – PRE-MIXED FEEDS

23. SERVICES – EXTENSION

24. ARTIFICIAL INSEMINATION Region Year Production Distribution Insemination Pregnancy Calves born A.I. at the national level national 2007 118,948 124,246 71,103 25,190 24,181 3-year moving average national 2016 842,185 825,335 386,049 166,370 229,618 A.I. in the Oromia region Oromia 2012 13,912 levels Oromia 2017 232,144

25. ADOPTION – CROSS-BRED COWS

INCLUSIVE TRANSFORMATION IN THE DAIRY SECTOR

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