INCLUSIVE TRANSFORMATION IN THE DAIRY SECTOR

1. Photo Credit Goes Here
INCLUSIVE TRANSFORMATION IN THE
DAIRY SECTOR
Bart M., Yetimwork H., Seneshaw T., and Agajie T.
July 18, 2019
17th International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy
EEA, Addis Ababa

2. INTRODUCTION
• Transformation in
Ethiopia
• Drivers:
GDP growth
Urbanization
Infrastructure
• Dairy sector?
Policy
Lack of good data

3. DATA
• Primary data: survey fielded in
January – February 2018
• Focus: major producing areas
supplying Addis
• Stratified by distance to Addis:
• Addis Ababa: 97 farms;
• Suburban: 256 farms;
• Rural (North and West
Shewa): 602 farms

4. DATA
• Look at :
• 1/ Remote vs non-remote farms
• 2/ Small vs large dairy farms

6. Upstream
- Yields
- Access to services
- Adoption of modern inputs

7. Yield
200400600800
1000
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
200040006000
yield(l/year/cow)
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

8. Services
- Extension:
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.2.4.6.8
1
ShareDAs(mostly)available
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

9. Adoption
- Cross bred cows
0
.1.2.3
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
.2.4.6.8
1
sharecross-bredcows
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

10. Adoption
- A.I.
0
.2.4.6
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.2.4.6.8
1
ShareAI(mostly)available
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

11. Feed
- Grazing only
.2.3.4.5.6.7
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.1.2.3.4.5
Shareusinggrazingonly
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

12. Feed
-Purchased Wheat Bran
0
.1.2.3.4.5
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
.2.4.6.8
1
Shareusingpurchasedwheatbran
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

13. Feed
-Purchased Premixed brands
0
.2.4.6.8
Shareusingpre-mixedfeedbrands
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.05
.1
.15
.2
.25
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier

14. Health
-Distance to nearest pharmacy
406080
100120140
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
20406080
100
Walkingtime(minutes)togetmedicine
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

15. Conclusion
• Large changes in the dairy sector in Ethiopia
• Implications:
(1) Positive dynamics, but from a low base - more effort
needed to further stimulate dynamics
(2) Increasing importance of purchased feed
(3) The role of market access
(4) Inclusiveness of remote and small dairy farms

16. THANK YOU
DISCUSSION PAPER (ESSP WP 129):
“TRANSFORMING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS IN ETHIOPIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE DAIRY SECTOR”
BART M. (IFPRI), YETIMWORK H. (PSI), SENESHAW T.(KULEUVEN) AND AGAJIE TESFAYE (EIAR)

17. Adoption
- Artificial Insemination (A.I)
0.1.2.3.4.5
ShareusingA.I.
0 50 100 150
travel costs (birr/person)
95% CI at time of survey
95% CI ten years earlier

18. SUPPLY ADDIS ABABA
37%
32%
31%
Supply liquid milk
Rural Sub-urban Urban
44
28
11
16
Supply pasteurized milk (%)
Rural Sub-urban Urban Large farms

19. DAIRY CONSUMPTION ADDIS
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Poorest
quintile
quintile
2
quintile
3
quintile
4
Richest
quintile
USD/capita
Liquid milk expenditures (2016)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005 2011 2016
USD/capita
Dairy consumption per capita

20. DAIRY PROCESSING COMPANIES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Totalnumberofdairy
processingcompanies
- 100 200 300 400
Capacity
Actual
Liter/dayShola
Family milk
Sebeta agro-industry/Mama
Elemtu
Holland dairy plc
Etete
Ada cooperative

21. ADOPTION – PRE-MIXED FEEDS

22. SERVICES – EXTENSION

23. ARTIFICIAL INSEMINATION
Region Year Production Distribution Insemination Pregnancy Calves born
A.I. at the national level national 2007 118,948 124,246 71,103 25,190 24,181
3-year moving average national 2016 842,185 825,335 386,049 166,370 229,618
A.I. in the Oromia region Oromia 2012 13,912
levels Oromia 2017 232,144

24. ADOPTION – CROSS-BRED COWS