The document discusses the implications of various tax cut scenarios on the commercial real estate industry. Extending current income tax cuts for two years is the most likely outcome and would cost between $200-500 billion. This could shift some commercial real estate transactions to 2010 due to potentially higher capital gains taxes in 2011. Limiting itemized deductions and changes to estate tax laws could also impact commercial real estate markets and property values. Both short-term and long-term tax cuts carry economic and public debt implications.
The 2014 Essential Tax and Wealth Planning Guide discusses opportunities available through the final few months of 2013, and the planning environment beyond as policymakers continue a tax reform debate that could fundamentally change how individual taxpayers compute their taxes.
The tax-related decisions you make today, and at various points in your career, may have a marked effect on how you save for retirement and how much you will have down the road to support your goals. Many tax decisions you make about retirement are one-time choices that can be very costly to change, so it pays to plan.
For more information, visit http://www.deloitte.com/us/taxandwealthguide
Learn about the expiring tax breaks and automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the end of 2012 in the United States, including the forecasted economic impact and where Democrats and Republicans stand.
The 2014 Essential Tax and Wealth Planning Guide discusses opportunities available through the final few months of 2013, and the planning environment beyond as policymakers continue a tax reform debate that could fundamentally change how individual taxpayers compute their taxes.
The tax-related decisions you make today, and at various points in your career, may have a marked effect on how you save for retirement and how much you will have down the road to support your goals. Many tax decisions you make about retirement are one-time choices that can be very costly to change, so it pays to plan.
For more information, visit http://www.deloitte.com/us/taxandwealthguide
Learn about the expiring tax breaks and automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the end of 2012 in the United States, including the forecasted economic impact and where Democrats and Republicans stand.
What is the "fiscal cliff"? It's the term being used by many to describe the unique combination of tax
increases and spending cuts scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2013.
Estate Planning Under the 2010 Tax Relief ActLewis Rice
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On December 17, 2010, President Obama signed the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Authorization & Job Creation Act of 2010 (the โ2010 Tax Relief Actโ) into law. The 2010 Tax Relief Act provides temporary estate and gift tax guidance for the next two years. It increases the estate, gift and generation-skipping tax exemption amounts to $5 million and reduces the estate tax rate to 35%.
The professional consultants of the Collaborative Campus Project gave this presentation to show the group's progress through Week 5 in creating a design deliverable for Cleveland's Campus District.
The Future of Real Estate in Ohio: Walkable Urban Placesmarianneep
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Chris Leinberger of LOCUS - a national network of real estate developers and investors that advocates for sustainable, walkable urban development in Americaโs metropolitan areas - gave this presentation at a series of events, โAdvancing Ohioโs Urban Agenda: Walkable Communities for Globally Competitive Cities,โ co-hosted by Greater Ohio Policy Center, the Urban Land Institute (ULI) district councils of Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus, and LOCUS. The events took place in Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus on January 16th and 17th of 2013.
The three groups built the case for walkable development based on market demand and the need for Ohio cities to act now to take advantage of current demographic shifts to remain globally competitive. These events provided a forum to connect developers from urban centers across the state to discuss the demand for sustainable communities.
What is the "fiscal cliff"? It's the term being used by many to describe the unique combination of tax
increases and spending cuts scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2013.
Estate Planning Under the 2010 Tax Relief ActLewis Rice
ย
On December 17, 2010, President Obama signed the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Authorization & Job Creation Act of 2010 (the โ2010 Tax Relief Actโ) into law. The 2010 Tax Relief Act provides temporary estate and gift tax guidance for the next two years. It increases the estate, gift and generation-skipping tax exemption amounts to $5 million and reduces the estate tax rate to 35%.
The professional consultants of the Collaborative Campus Project gave this presentation to show the group's progress through Week 5 in creating a design deliverable for Cleveland's Campus District.
The Future of Real Estate in Ohio: Walkable Urban Placesmarianneep
ย
Chris Leinberger of LOCUS - a national network of real estate developers and investors that advocates for sustainable, walkable urban development in Americaโs metropolitan areas - gave this presentation at a series of events, โAdvancing Ohioโs Urban Agenda: Walkable Communities for Globally Competitive Cities,โ co-hosted by Greater Ohio Policy Center, the Urban Land Institute (ULI) district councils of Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus, and LOCUS. The events took place in Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus on January 16th and 17th of 2013.
The three groups built the case for walkable development based on market demand and the need for Ohio cities to act now to take advantage of current demographic shifts to remain globally competitive. These events provided a forum to connect developers from urban centers across the state to discuss the demand for sustainable communities.
Advancing Ohio's Urban Agenda: Walkable Communities for Globally Competitive ...marianneep
ย
Greater Ohio Policy Center partnered with the Urban Land Institute (ULI) district councils of Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus, as well as LOCUS to host โAdvancing Ohioโs Urban Agenda: Walkable Communities for Globally Competitive Cities,โ an exclusive series of events hosted in Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus on January 16th and 17th of 2013.
The three groups built the case for walkable development based on market demand and the need for Ohio cities to act now to take advantage of current demographic shifts to remain globally competitive. These events provided a forum to connect developers from urban centers across the state to discuss the demand for sustainable communities.
Highlights of the Final Tax Cuts and Jobs ActSarah Cuddy
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The combined tax reform bill includes plans to lower tax rates on individuals and businesses and change many deductions. Those hoping for tax simplification, however, may be disappointed.
This presentation provides an overview of the agencyโs most recent budget and economic projections, which incorporate the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged. In those projections, federal debt held by the public grows sharply over the next 30 years, reaching unprecedented levels. The presentation also includes a discussion of the effects of the 2017 tax act and recent changes to federal spending policy on the projections. In addition, the presentation touches on budgetary outcomes under scenarios that include future changes to current law.
Presentation by John McClelland, CBOโs Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at the International Tax Policy Forum.
Biden Administration Provides Further Details on Tax PlanCBIZ, Inc.
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On May 28 the Treasury Department released the General Explanations of the Administrationโs Fiscal Year 2022 Revenue Proposals. While final legislation could vary significantly in both the major points and the final detailsโreviewing this document, traditionally known as the Green Book, may assist your tax planning efforts. CBIZ National Tax Office advisors describe and comment on key business and individual provisions and identify significant omissions. Learn more.
The National Association of Realtors Fiscal Cliff Summary for Mortgage Interest Deductions, Mortgage Relief for Short Sales, Leasehold Improvements, Energy Efficiency Tax Credit summary
What does the new Tax Cuts and Jobs Act mean for you? Our January Investment Insights explores the key points of the most significant overhaul of the tax system since '86, reviewing the new tax brackets, deductions and exemptions, and the effects on the economy.
IT and the Federal Government - Doing More with Lesskottmeier
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The Federal Government spends a significant amount of money on information technology. Indeed, an estimated $78.9 billion is budgeted for IT in Fiscal Year (FY) 2013. For every $100 in federal discretionary spending, over $6 is spent on information technology. Federal government IT spending has the potential to impact local IT employment and thus demand for industrial and office space.
The U.S. economy created 227,000 seasonally adjusted, non-farm jobs in February, according to the latest employment report from the BLS. This is the third consecutive month of net job gains over 200,000. After flirting with a retrenchment in payroll growth this past summer, the U.S. economy has added 201,000 monthly payrolls, on average, since September. The latest metropolitan area employment figures show that the DC region added 13,400 office-using jobs on an annual basis in 2011.
Why has multifamily investment been so hot, especially in D.C.? What are some of the underlying economic and demographic fundamentals driving the multifamily market?
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Implications of Tax Cuts on Commercial Real Estate
1. Implications of Tax Cuts on
Commercial Real Estate
December 2010
Jeffrey Kottmeier, Director of Research, DC Region
As the 2001 and 2003 Bush era income tax cuts near expiration on December 31,
Congress and the President are rushing to reach consensus on extending those tax cuts
before the start of a new year. With the federal debt climbing to $13.9 trillion, up 14
percent compared to a year ago, many are concerned about what impact any tax cuts
will have on a slowly recovering economy.
Additionally, the longevity of those tax cuts is a major factor in the current ๏ฌscal and
political debate. One argument posits that allowing them to become โpermanentโ could
have long-term effects on the federal de๏ฌcit. Extending current income tax cuts would
cost the Federal Government an estimated $3.7 trillion over 10 years. Many politicians
regardless of party af๏ฌliation support extending tax cuts for a shorter period of two
years. That would reopen the tax debate during the 2012 elections.
2011 Tax Brackets The President and leaders of the Republican Party crafted a bipartisan proposal to
extend most of the current tax cuts for two years. This proposal has yet to be voted
Expire Current Extend Current Expire Current on by Congress. No matter what the outcome is, tax regulations have signi๏ฌcant
Cuts for All Cuts for All Cuts for Wealthy*
implications on the US economy and commercial real estate. Below we take a look at a
10.0% 10.0%
couple of possible scenarios.
15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
28.0% 25.0% 25.0% Income Taxes โ Bush era income tax cuts are extended for some or all. Most
31.0% 28.0% 28.0% politicians have agreed on tax cuts for the middle class, but those for the wealthy
36.0% 33.0% 36.0%
(individuals earning $200,000+ annually or $250,000+ for couples) have been more
39.6% 35.0% 39.6%
controversial. Cutting taxes for wealthy households would mean that the top two income
tax rate brackets would increase from 33 and 35 percent to 36 and 39.6 percent. The
* Single with income over $200,000 or Married Filing Jointly
with household income over $250,000
US Treasury estimates the cost of permanent tax cuts for all taxpayers would equal
Note: Taxable income ranges change, depending upon law $3.7 trillion over 10 years, of which $700 billion would be from cuts for the wealthy.
approved
The most likely outcome appears to be that tax cuts will be extended for everyone, but
Source: Tax Policy Center only short-term. Cost estimates for a one to two year tax cut for all households range
between $200 billion to $500 billion.
Capital Gains โ Long-term capital gains and quali๏ฌed dividends taxes remain
unchanged. Currently, long-term capital gains and quali๏ฌed dividends are taxed up to
Maximum Tax Rates
15 percent. If the present tax cuts expire, the rates would revert to pre-2003 levels
80% of 20 percent for capital gains and regular income tax rates (up to 39.6 percent)
70%
60%
for dividend income. That could encourage high-income taxpayers to change their
50% investment strategies. Those anticipating higher taxes in the future may realize more
40% long-term gains in 2010 and fewer in 2011. This could shift some commercial real
30%
20%
estate transactions into 2010, as capital gains are taxed at a lower rate. The latest
10% bipartisan proposal is a short-term extension of the current capital gains tax laws.
0%
Mortgage Interest Deductions โ Residential mortgage interest deductions are phased
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
Personal Income Long-Term Capital Gains
out or eliminated. With a housing market struggling to recover, the elimination or
Sources: Department of Treasury, Of๏ฌce of Tax Analysis; Tax
phase out of mortgage interest deductions (MID) is highly contested. Changes in the
Foundation MID would have many implications on housing markets and federal tax revenues. We
estimate the total amount of interest deductions for existing US condominium and co-
op sales in 2009 is to have been $1.3 billion, based on an average unit sales price of
$217,000.
cassidyturley.com | 1
2. Implications of Tax Cuts on
Commercial Real Estate
December 2010
Limiting Itemized Deductions โ Another proposal to limit the value of itemized
deductions to 28 percent would affect high-income earners. The Tax Policy Center
estimates limiting deductions to 28 percent would increase federal taxes by $27,000, on
average, for those earning over $1 million.
Estate Taxes โ The top estate tax rate decreases to 35 percent and exemptions
increase to $5 million. In 2010, there are no federal estate taxes due to a phase-out
schedule established in 2001. In 2009, couples quali๏ฌed for a $7 million tax exemption
($3.5 million for individuals) to distribute their estates, and amounts over $7 million were
taxed up to a top 45 percent tax rate. Current law has the estate tax resuming in 2011,
which includes a lower tax-free allowance of $1 million per person and a higher top tax
rate of 55 percent. Making the estate tax permanent using 2009 parameters would cost
$265 billion.
Implications
Debt/GDP
Public debt has increased signi๏ฌcantly over the past few years due to increased federal
spending. Currently, federal debt accounts for approximately 64 percent of GDP. A
congressional panel on debt reduction recently suggested recommendations that would
cut $4 trillion from the federal de๏ฌcit through 2020, reducing the de๏ฌcit to 2.3 percent
of GDP by 2015, and reducing public debt to 40 percent of GDP by 2035. Concerns
over the tax cuts stem from how heavily debt will weigh on the nationโs economic output.
Short-term, economists estimate that the proposed temporary tax cuts and spending
increases will help boost the economy in 2011. The latest estimates by Moodyโs
Analytics show that extending tax cuts would accelerate real GDP growth to 4 percent
in 20111 . Longer-term tax cuts would add to the public debt. Making the 2009 tax code
permanent would decrease federal revenues by $234 billion over 10 years according to
the Tax Policy Center.
1
Mark Zandi, โTax Deal Improves Odds for U.S. Economy in 2011โ, Moodyโs Analytics, 7 December 2010.
GDP & Tax Rates
โ81 Tax Cuts Revenue Reconciliation Act โ93
10% 18%
โ01 & โ03 Bush Tax Cuts
Tax Reform Act โ86
8% 16%
14%
6%
Real GDP, Y/Y Change
12%
4%
Tax Rate
10%
2%
8%
0%
6%
-2%
4%
-4% 2%
-6% 0%
19 1
19 1
19 1
19 1
19 1
19 1
19 1
19 1
19 1
20 1
20 1
20 1
20 1
20 1
20 1
1
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
19
US GDP (Ch. 2005 $, SAAR) Average Income Tax Rate
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moodyโs, Bureau of the Public Debt Online
cassidyturley.com | 2
3. Implications of Tax Cuts on
Commercial Real Estate
December 2010
Employment
Commercial real estate demand is highly dependent upon job creation. Employment
National Employment dropped drastically during the 2007-2009 recession. National employment levels
for Professional & Business Services, a key driver of of๏ฌce sector demand, bottomed
18 out in 3Q 2009, while employment in the retail and manufacturing sectors troughed
17
in 4Q 2009. Since then, employment has improved in all three sectors. Changes
Millions Employed (SA)
16
15
in the tax code could affect the outlook of businesses toward hiring additional, full-
14 time employees, thus altering demand for commercial real estate. Moodyโs Analytics
13
12
estimates that an additional 1.6 million jobs could be added in 2011 by extending tax
11 cuts and increased spending. Historically, of๏ฌce using jobs account for 20 percent of
10
job growth. This would equate to an additional 320,000 of๏ฌce using jobs for the US
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
economy.
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Retail Professional & Business Services Manufacturing
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Small Businesses
Many small business owners could be signi๏ฌcantly affected if some current tax laws are
allowed to expire on December 31. If personal income tax rates and capital gains rates
increase, capital expenditures and small business employment could suffer. Nationally,
employment for small businesses with fewer than 50 employees has already decreased
Income Taxes Down, Small Business by 1.9 million workers over the past two years. Placing a larger tax burden on small
Employment Up
business owners could spur a continuation of this downward trend.
40% 15
14.5
Consumer Spending
39%
38%
14 Many argue that an increase in taxes will restrain consumer spending, hampering a
Millions Employed
Income Tax Rate
13.5
37% 13 full economic recovery. History shows that decreases in the average income tax rate
36% 12.5
35% 12
have coincided with increased consumer spending. With a recent pick-up in consumer
34%
11.5
11
demand, the retail and manufacturing sectors have shown some signs of improvement
33% 10.5 that could fade if tax rates suddenly increase.
32% 10
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Other Implications
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
Total Employed (Businesses <50 Employees) Top Income Tax Rate
There are many other issues about current tax laws being debated that could impact
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moodyโs, Internal
Revenue Service the decisions businesses make about hiring, investing and operating. One such issue
is whether or not to extend tax deferrals on pro๏ฌts. Companies could use this deferral
to ๏ฌnance equipment or other large purchases. Another issue is higher taxes on carried
interest. In investment partnerships, carried interest is a form of pro๏ฌt-sharing for the
๏ฌrmsโ general partners. Carried interest can qualify for lower capital gains rates. These
Income Taxes Affect Consumer policies and others will affect the amount of money businesses, investors, and owners
Expenditures retain, and thus have an impact on business activities including the investing in and
leasing of real estate. With the ๏ฌnal verdict still out on tax laws, the clock is ticking
$60,000 18%
$50,000
16% quickly towards midnight on New Yearโs Eve.
14%
$40,000 12%
10%
$30,000
8%
$20,000 6% Disclaimer
4%
$10,000 This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.cassidyturley.com. This is a
2%
$0 0% research document of Cassidy Turley in Washington, DC. Questions related to information herein should be
directed to the Research Department at 202-463-2100. Information contained herein has been obtained
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
Av Annual Consumer Expenditures ($) from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Cassidy Turley is a
Av Federal Income Tax Rate (%)
leading commercial real estate services provider with over 2,800 professionals in 60 of๏ฌces nationwide. The
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moodyโs, Tax
Foundation
๏ฌrm completed transactions valued over $13 billion in 2009, manages over 420 million square feet on behalf of
private, institutional and corporate clients and supports over 25,000 domestic corporate services locations.
cassidyturley.com | 3