The 2010 mid-term elections resulted in Republican control of the House while Democrats retained the presidency, dividing government. This document discusses several implications for commercial real estate, including that a divided government may delay decisions around fiscal stimulus and employment, prolonging recovery in real estate markets. Additionally, debates around tax cuts, federal spending, healthcare reform, and financial reform could impact demand for office and medical space. While employment is slowly improving, decisions made by Congress will influence future projections and commercial real estate demand over the next 5 years is estimated at 550-925 million square feet of office space.
IN THIS SUMMARY
Within the past 10 years, China has evolved from a third world country into one of the most economically powerful countries in the world, second only to the United States. With China’s government-backed development of industry and excellent trade balance, they are on the path to passing the U.S. and becoming the most powerful nation on earth. The United States’ continuous outsourcing of jobs, weakening industries, and consumer focused culture are crippling the country economically and increasing the need for imports from China, further boosting Chinese industry. In Chinamerica, Handel Jones outlines what China is doing to further itself as an economic powerhouse, and what America can do to further its economic future while maintaining positive trade balances.
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http://www.bizsum.com/summaries/chinamerica
This is a PPT that I created for a discussion of the US Federal Budget, the Deficit, and the Debt. Many of the slides are public domain items for Heritage Foundation and Concord Coalition. It led to some very good non-partisan discussions. There is hope!
IT and the Federal Government - Doing More with Lesskottmeier
The Federal Government spends a significant amount of money on information technology. Indeed, an estimated $78.9 billion is budgeted for IT in Fiscal Year (FY) 2013. For every $100 in federal discretionary spending, over $6 is spent on information technology. Federal government IT spending has the potential to impact local IT employment and thus demand for industrial and office space.
We’re all trying to find that idea or spark that will turn a good project into a great project. Creativity plays a huge role in the outcome of our work. Harnessing the power of collaboration and open source, we can make great strides towards excellence. Not just for designers, this talk can be applicable to many different roles – even development. In this talk, Seasoned Creative Director Sara Cannon is going to share some secrets about creative methodology, collaboration, and the strong role that open source can play in our work.
IN THIS SUMMARY
Within the past 10 years, China has evolved from a third world country into one of the most economically powerful countries in the world, second only to the United States. With China’s government-backed development of industry and excellent trade balance, they are on the path to passing the U.S. and becoming the most powerful nation on earth. The United States’ continuous outsourcing of jobs, weakening industries, and consumer focused culture are crippling the country economically and increasing the need for imports from China, further boosting Chinese industry. In Chinamerica, Handel Jones outlines what China is doing to further itself as an economic powerhouse, and what America can do to further its economic future while maintaining positive trade balances.
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
http://www.bizsum.com/summaries/chinamerica
This is a PPT that I created for a discussion of the US Federal Budget, the Deficit, and the Debt. Many of the slides are public domain items for Heritage Foundation and Concord Coalition. It led to some very good non-partisan discussions. There is hope!
IT and the Federal Government - Doing More with Lesskottmeier
The Federal Government spends a significant amount of money on information technology. Indeed, an estimated $78.9 billion is budgeted for IT in Fiscal Year (FY) 2013. For every $100 in federal discretionary spending, over $6 is spent on information technology. Federal government IT spending has the potential to impact local IT employment and thus demand for industrial and office space.
We’re all trying to find that idea or spark that will turn a good project into a great project. Creativity plays a huge role in the outcome of our work. Harnessing the power of collaboration and open source, we can make great strides towards excellence. Not just for designers, this talk can be applicable to many different roles – even development. In this talk, Seasoned Creative Director Sara Cannon is going to share some secrets about creative methodology, collaboration, and the strong role that open source can play in our work.
The impact of innovation on travel and tourism industries (World Travel Marke...Brian Solis
From the impact of Pokemon Go on Silicon Valley to artificial intelligence, futurist Brian Solis talks to Mathew Parsons of World Travel Market about the future of travel, tourism and hospitality.
After the US dollar replaced gold, the US debt became the attention worldwide, thus the demand for the US dollar continued, furthermore the extremely low interest of the dollar. This helped the US government to borrow great amounts of debt as well as kept the creditors pleased. Due to the pandemic, the US economy retrograded because of the tax cut and unproductive rescue spending plan plus surpassing spending of the government. The rising inflation starts to increase to high levels, which certainly the government must cut back spending or its patterns, while this will lead to uncertain consequences for the long future. This paper discusses several different perspectives on the US government's sustainability as its ability to settle the debt in future, the fate of growth burdened with that debt through the neoclassical mode of growth, and also the effect of anxiety of defaults and unfunded obligations. Inversely, it explores the strength of the dollar with a low-interest rate and its sustainability worldwide. We also propose ways helping of strengthen the fiscal government position and solutions to help the economy recover in long term and to easiest the situation. In the synopsis, we propose something that could affect and shake the global market.
Economists See Clouds in the Silver LiningYardi Matrix
Download the full report: https://goo.gl/5jwDS5
At a time when optimism is rampant in the real estate industry, and the stock market is near all-time highs after a massive run-up, economists lived up to their billing as dismal scientists at the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) annual policy conference in Washington, D.C., last week.
Although the immediate state of the economy is healthy, economists lamented the country’s long-term fiscal situation, recently made worse by the tax reform passed by Congress. They were also pessimistic about the prospects for policy solutions, which include prudent immigration reform and fewer—not more—restrictions on global trade, given the growing populism that is producing an electorate with increasingly polarized views in the U.S. and Europe.
“I’m concerned that the political system has not come to grips with sensible fiscal policy,” said Alice Rivlin, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former vice chair of the Federal Reserve and director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.
Running hHead UNITED STATES NATIONAL DEBT1UNITED STATES N.docxrtodd599
Running hHead: UNITED STATES NATIONAL DEBT
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UNITED STATES NATIONAL DEBT 4
UNITED STATES NATIONAL DEBT Comment by Writing Center: Not in all caps
Akhil Gadiparthi
BUS 505 Managerial Economics
Jun 30, 2019
Simin Hojat
Westcliff University
United States National Debt Comment by Writing Center: Great, just not bolded
Latest reports indicate that the United States nNational dDebt has now hit $22 tTrillion. This being is the highest point it has ever reached in the country’s history. Over the years, we have witnessed a drastic drop in tax revenue and a significant rise in federal spending. From the time President Trump assumed office in 2017, the nNational dDebt has increased by approximately $2 trillion in two years (Hallender, 2019). Despite the country being the most powerful country in the world, annual budget deficits keep on increasing, leaving the national dDebt to soaring. up. Comment by Writing Center: Where did you find this fact? Cite
(Author’s Last Name, year) Comment by Writing Center: Thesis statement? Remember: https://edpuzzle.com/media/5abe932cff173e40f02ef96d
History of the United States National Debt
The American Revolutionary War saw the first instance when the United Statescountry incurred national dDebt. This was undertaken by the first United States tTreasurer, Michael Hillegas. From this time, the Public Debt has been escalating significantly, although it did but decreased between 1835 and 1836. It is was during the periods of recessions and wars, that the country has seen high national debts. It has, therefore, been measured against the country’s GDP. Under these measurements, the National Debt had reached its highest during Truman’s pPresidential term, which was subsequently after World Wwar II 11 (Hall & Sargent, 2015). When Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton came into power, there was seen a significantly low level of Public Debt. Comment by Writing Center: What is this? Specify Comment by Writing Center: Not capitalized Comment by Writing Center: Specify what ‘it’ refers to Comment by Writing Center: Not capitalized Comment by Writing Center: Not capitalized
Decreased military expenditure in the subsequent years made the dDebt to drop significantly (Hall & Sargent, 2015). Over those years, the public debt graph has been erratic with instances of high and low states. In the 1980s, there was an increase ind military spending, especially during the reign of President Reagan. Under President’s George W. Bush reign, the national debt went up by $5.9 trillion, which was the second largest. The 9/11 terrorist attacks dramatically reshaped the U.S. economy. Military spending surged to $600 billion/year, and thus, the wWar on terror attributed greatly to this the rise in national debt (Hall & Sargent, 2015). Further, Tax Relief and .
OBJECTIVE
The Budget of the United States Government is a collection of documents that contains the budget message of the President, information about the President's budget proposals for a given fiscal year, and other budgetary publications that have been issued throughout the fiscal year. The budget for the Fiscal Year 2021 was issued by the Office of Management and Budget on February 10th 2020. This webinar shall highlight the backdrop of the budget proposals and the subsequent outcome.
Similar to Mid Term Elections & Commercial Real Estate (20)
The U.S. economy created 227,000 seasonally adjusted, non-farm jobs in February, according to the latest employment report from the BLS. This is the third consecutive month of net job gains over 200,000. After flirting with a retrenchment in payroll growth this past summer, the U.S. economy has added 201,000 monthly payrolls, on average, since September. The latest metropolitan area employment figures show that the DC region added 13,400 office-using jobs on an annual basis in 2011.
Why has multifamily investment been so hot, especially in D.C.? What are some of the underlying economic and demographic fundamentals driving the multifamily market?
1. 2010 Mid-Term Elections:
Implications for Commercial Real Estate
cassidyturley.com | 1
US Total Public Debt Outstanding
Since World War II, the US House of Representatives has changed political parties
seven times. Last week’s mid-term elections turned the shift of political power for the
next two years in favor of the Republican Party in the House. With a divided Congress
and opposing political parties controlling the Executive and Legislative branches, there
are numerous implications for commercial real estate. Cassidy Turley Research provides
a brief outlook on the mid-term elections in relation to federal debt, legislation, US
employment, and the commercial real estate markets.
Federal Debt, Income & Expenditures: Large national debt is a hot topic for the 112th
Congress. Currently, public debt is estimated at $13.7 trillion, equating to $116,647
for every US household. The ratio of total public debt to national GDP stands at
approximately 94 percent, compared to the 30-year average of 58 percent. To address
debt, government will need to examine federal revenues and spending.
Future tax revenues will factor heavily on public debt. Bush era tax cuts are set to
expire on December 31, 2010. Extension of these tax cuts will have a significant impact
on future federal income projections. Federal receipts decreased from 2001 to 2003
following the implementation of President Bush’s tax cuts, but have risen 4.3% annually,
on average, since 2003. Though no definitive decisions have been made by Congress,
it appears that some form of continuing tax cuts will be implemented, at least in the
short-term.
There is no doubt that federal spending plays a significant role in the US economy.
Federal outlays currently account for an estimated 19% of national GDP. Federal
spending continues to grow. Over the past year, federal outlays increased 2.7%
annually, slightly higher than the 30-year average increase of 2.5%. A divided
government will need to decide how to address federal spending and determine its
impacts on the economy.
Implications: The 112th Congress is faced with a considerable amount of federal debt.
Large programs, such as defense, are targets for spending cuts. Funding for specific
programs significantly impacts procurement expenditures for private sector contractors.
Additionally, changes in federal government employment affect the private sector.
History shows that 1.1 to 3 contractor jobs are created for every federal government job.
Depending on how aggressively Congress implements spending cuts, locations that rely
heavily on federal contracting could be strongly impacted.
Looking back over the past 25 years, a divided or unified government has not made
a significant impact in federal spending. The Federal Government has continued to
increase spending, regardless of political party control. The main issue continues to be
which federal programs or initiatives are retained or cut.
Legislation: In addition to debating extended tax cuts, Republicans and Democrats
will continue to deliberate major legislation such as healthcare reform and Wall Street
reform/consumer protection. The Federal Government and some private sector
companies have started to gear up for implementation of these bills, though programs
related to these bills have not been fully funded. For example, the US Securities and
Exchange Commission signed a 900,000 square foot office lease in Washington, DC in
anticipation of increased employment for financial oversight and consumer protection.
November 2010
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
Jan-80Jan-82Jan-84Jan-86Jan-88Jan-90Jan-92Jan-94Jan-96Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10
billions$
Federal Government Receipts & Outlays
(in constant FY 2000 dollars)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
e
2008
e
2010
e
billions$
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
Receipts Outlays Outlays as Percentage of GDP
Sources: Bureau of the Public Debt Online, Moody’s Analytics
Sources: Government Printing Office (GPO)
2. 2010 Mid-Term Elections:
Implications for Commercial Real Estate
cassidyturley.com | 2
National Office Using Employment (SA)
November 2010
Implications: The outcomes of issues such as these will affect both public and
private sector hiring and thus demand for commercial real estate. Implementation
of healthcare and financial reform could affect the medical, IT, accounting, and legal
sectors, driving demand for office and medical space and data processing centers.
Additionally, changes in income and capital gains taxes could affect when and how
commercial property is acquired and sold.
Employment: The national employment outlook remains mixed. Though still plagued
by a record-high 9.6% unemployment rate, US non-farm employment improved in
October 2010 by adding 829,000 jobs on a seasonally-adjusted basis compared to
a year ago. After reaching a low point in 3Q 2009, national office-using employment
(mainly the Professional & Business Services and Financial Activities sectors) is
projected to improve, adding an estimated 700,000 to 800,000 jobs annually over the
next five years. However, there is the likelihood that national office employment will
continue to decline for the next two to four quarters if the economy is slow to recover.
Implications: Decisions made by a split government regarding additional financial
stimulus and public spending will impact employment projections. Chances are many
major decisions will not happen in the near-term with a divided government. As a result,
this may only delay decisions by some companies to hire new employees and acquire
additional space.
A “lame duck” government may also hinder improvement of consumer and business
confidence. Business and consumer confidence have demonstrated to be highly
correlated with employment and office space demand. Prolonged levels of low
confidence will only delay a full recovery in the commercial real estate markets.
Nonetheless, national office-using employment will add an estimated 3.7 million jobs
over the next five years. This equates to 550 million to 925 million square feet of
demand for existing or additional office space.
Disclaimer
This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.cassidyturley.com. This is a
research document of Cassidy Turley in Washington, DC. Questions related to information herein should be
directed to the Research Department at 202-463-2100. Information contained herein has been obtained from
sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Cassidy Turley is a leading
commercial real estate services provider with over 2,800 professionals in 60 offi ces nationwide. The fi rm
completed transactions valued over $13 billion in 2009, manages over 420 million square feet on behalf of
private, institutional and corporate clients and supports over 25,000 domestic corporate services locations.
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
2000Q
12001Q
12002Q
12003Q
12004Q
12005Q
12006Q
12007Q
12008Q
12009Q
12010Q
12011Q
12012Q
12013Q
12014Q
12015Q
1
MillionsEmployed
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
2000Q
12001Q
12002Q
12003Q
12004Q
12005Q
12006Q
12007Q
12008Q
12009Q
12010Q
12011Q
12012Q
12013Q
12014Q
12015Q
1
MillionsEmployed
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics
Divided Government Doesn’t Matter
Change in Total Federal Outlays
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
YearoverYearChange
Republican
Controlled
House
Democrat
Controlled
House
Reagan Bush I Bush IIClinton Obama
Shaded Bar =
Opposite Party
President0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
YearoverYearChange
Republican
Controlled
House
Democrat
Controlled
House
Reagan Bush I Bush IIClinton Obama
Shaded Bar =
Opposite Party
President
Sources: Government Printing Office (GPO), Cassidy Turley