2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro


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2012 State Of The Capital Markets: DC Metro

  1. 1. State of the Capital Markets Washington, DC
  2. 2. Dear Colleagues,As I sit back and reflect on 2011, I can’t help but hear the Grateful Dead singing “What a Long Strange Trip it’s Been.” Last January, I wassure we were on the path to strong upward growth where every sale transaction would establish stronger and better results than the onebefore. I was correct through the first six months of the year, but then both domestic and foreign events seemed to give way to a majorloss of confidence which affected buyers, sellers and lenders alike. So what does 2012 portend? More of the same or more changes?Optimism seems to be too strong a description for my current mood. Perhaps guarded optimism better describes my feelings rightnow. We have the unknown of the presidential election hanging over our heads until later this year and the direction (and velocity?)of federal spending attached to that outcome. No matter what the results, a decision will be made – something almost unheardof in this town of late.Average is what I expect in terms of results next year. Average sales activity, average leasing activity and average lendingactivity. Average isn’t bad, but who likes to be average? I feel this could be the case for the next 24 months followed by aprolonged strong recovery in both private and public spending. Predictions: • Yes, we will have job growth and reduced unemployment which will be positive for all real estate product types. • Investors and companies will find it more important than ever to be physically close to the federal actors for both offensive and defensive reasons. • The bulk of the sales activity will stay in core to core plus properties, but those investors willing to stray from the safest bets and assume future leasing exposure will be rewarded three years from now as the economy turns the corner and demand for space turns robust. • The debt market will be fundamental to the success of the real estate market, but it will be very much dependent on the return of a much healthier CMBS market.So, my conclusion is markets are never as good or as bad as we might believe them to be, but one thingthat is certain is that the economy is making steady upward progress and those who take the position thatthe glass is half full will be rewarded. Best regards, William M. Collins Executive Managing Director, Principal Capital Markets Group
  3. 3. DC - Top Performing Investment MarketThe U.S. economy began – and ended – 2011 on an upbeat– with robust job growth, a declining unemployment rate,and improving consumer confidence. But 2011 was aroller-coaster ride.Throughout the year, a number of major political and economic Nevertheless, the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% – remainingevents shocked the U.S. economy including a volatile stock the lowest among major metros in the country.market, the federal debt ceiling crisis, Moody’s downgrade of In the first quarter of 2011, the District’s economy continuedU.S. credit, near shutdowns of the Federal Government, the to benefit from the Federal Government’s expanded role in thefederal deficit debate, and the European sovereign debt crisis. economy. As crisis after crisis hit in 2011, employment andNonetheless, the economy created jobs; full-time nonfarm leasing activity from the public sector waned. Employment (andpayrolls increased by 842,000 in 2011 after having declined by net leasing) shifted to the private sector which added enough920,000 in 2010. The national unemployment rate decreased nonfarm payrolls to offset the downturn in Federal Governmentby 0.9% over the year to end 2011 at 8.5% on a seasonally jobs. Of the 17,900 jobs added in 2011 (January throughadjusted basis. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased December, not seasonally adjusted), 16,900 were in the privateevery single quarter of 2011 and ended the year at 2.8%. sector. The DC economy continues to diversify as private sectorStill, despite the upbeat year-end, there are still many reasons corporations are attracted to DC’s status as a world capital, itsto be skeptical of any robust U.S. economy in 2012. Although cultural diversity, and a highly educated population. Amongthe economy is creating jobs, there is still a long way to go the notable companies relocating their headquarters to the areato recover the 9.4 million full-time payrolls lost in the three in 2011 were Bechtel’s global operations and Siemens USA.years 2008 to 2010. With the ongoing saga of the Europeansovereign debt crisis and upcoming U.S. presidential andcongressional elections in November, the U.S. economy will Job Growth By Metro 2011 Employment Gains / Losses, Non-Seasonally Adjustedmost likely have its set of ups and downs over the coming year. 70During the Great Recession and into 2010, the DC Metro 60 50 Thousands of Jobseconomy outperformed other parts of the nation. The Federal 40Government fueled economic expansion as the private sector 30slowly gained steam. DC Metro has been one of the top 20performers in terms of job creation during the past few years. In 102010, the DC Metro economy added 10,900 nonfarm payrolls, 0 NY City Dallas Santa Ana Warren, MI Seattle Houston Milwaukee Fort Worth Chicago Phoenix Pittsburgh San Diego Washington, San Jose, CA Los Angelesranking it #2 behind New York City for total job creation. The DCregion is starting to function more like markets in the rest of Total Nonfarm Job Growththe nation. During 2011, the DC economy did add more jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics– 17,900 – though its job-creation ranking fell to #10 behindcities fueled by growth in the technology and energy sectors.2 | Cassidy Turley
  4. 4. 1331 L Street, Washington, DCIncreased federal spending was a major driver of economicgrowth during 2011. Indeed, the Federal Governmentaccounts for almost 40% of the DC regional economy, andrelated government procurement accounts for 19% of theregion’s economy, according to research from George MasonUniversity (GMU). Total Federal Government spending rose to$169 billion in 2010 – a resulting 5.4% annual increase forthe DC region. But growth in government spending has slowed.While final figures for last year have not yet been released,2011 is expected to show an increase of approximately 2%according to GMU. Ambiguous federal deficit reduction plansand uncertainties related to the 2012 presidential electionare hindering confidence in the local economy. The near-termoutlook for federal spending is that it will continue to slowuntil there is more clarity on spending. GMU forecasts federaloutlays in the DC region to grow at a significantly slower pace– from 0% to 1.5% annually through 2015 – compared to the7.2% average annual growth rate over the past 25 years.Despite uncertainty about Federal Government spendingactivity, the resiliency of the DC economy continues to attracthighly educated people to the region. Net migration to theDC area is expected to be 37,000 people over the next threeyears. Additionally, the difference between local and nationalincomes has continued to widen. The median DC householdincome is currently $89,000 – 76% above the national medianincome. That is good news for the region’s economy as its poolof highly educated workers have money to spend, supportingfuture demand for multifamily housing, retail, and office space. cassidyturley.com | 3
  5. 5. Investment Sales - DC MetroDC remains one of the top metros for real estate. The UrbanLand Institute’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2012 surveyranked the DC market as the #1 “U.S. Market to Watch” forcommercial real estate investment. Due to the economicvolatility in 2011, investors remained focused on “gateway”markets such as Washington, DC.DC region office sales volume totaled $7.2 billion last year – Partners for a record-breaking $904 psf. The same downtownan increase of 68% over 2010 while far exceeding the $5.4 submarket saw Liberty Place and the Executive Tower tradebillion historical average. DC metro ranked second – behind hands for $884 psf and $846 psf, respectively.Manhattan – in sales volume among all office markets. The Returns on commercial real estate proved to be a good choiceyear ended with 73 transactions completed – a 33% increase for investors as the spread above the risk-free rate increasedover 2010. to reach 400 to 550 bps above the 10-year treasury (historyThe region not only posted strong sales volume during the shows that the average spread is closer to 350 bps). Whileyear, but also performed well on a price per square foot (psf) most market watchers thought the 10-year treasury in 2010basis. The average price for office property in DC Metro was was “as low as you can go,” it continued to decline to historic$400 psf—the second highest per square foot price on record. lows ending 2011 at 1.98%. In comparison, cap rates for DCMoreover, office prices in the District itself averaged $503 psf – office properties stabilized. The average office cap rate in thethe highest average price in any city in the U.S. Core downtown DC region was 6.8%, shrinking by only 10 basis points fromtransactions set new records. Wells Real Estate acquired 6.9% in 2010. Cap rates in the District averaged 6.0%, thoseMarket Square in the District’s East End from Beacon Capital in Northern Virginia averaged 6.9%, and cap rates in suburban Major Metros Dominate Sales Activity Office Sales Continue Climbing 2011 Office Sales Volume Washington, DC Metro Area $18.0 10% $16.0 9% $16 $14.0 8% $14.1 $14 7% $12.5 $12.0 $12 6% $10.2 $10.0 Billions $10 5% Billions $8.0 $8 $7.3 $7.2 4% Historical Avg = $5.4b $6.4 $6.0 $6 Sales Vol Avg Cap Rate 3% $4.9 $4.3 $3.7 $4.0 $3.9 $4.0 2% $4 $2.8 $3.4 $2.7 $2.0 $2.3 $2.0 1% $2 $1.1 $0.0 0% $0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Du s At s Ch ro a an tl e is rk on An n Ph r o Sa n ix o am h/ ou i Sa s l la an s e nt eg ag o ol et le ga nv Yo Fr st Lo ust at la oe Da ap rh Di M ge ic l e t. L Ve Bo De Se n ew o DC n H S s N di La s ig In Ra Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Cassidy Turley4 | Cassidy Turley
  6. 6. Waterfront Station, Washington, DC Office Price Per Square Foot Office Cap Rates District of Columbia Washington, DC Metro Area $600 10.5% $544 $503 9.5% $500 $491 $461 $451 $423 8.5% $403 $400 Price Per Square Foot $363 7.5% $323 $300 $267 $277 6.5% $245 5.5% $200 4.5% $100 3.5% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 DC MD VA Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Cassidy Turley cassidyturley.com | 5
  7. 7. Investment Sales - DC MetroMaryland averaged 7.6%. Investors continued to show interest Washington Metroin well-located, close-in submarkets. Average cap rates inside Office Leasing Fundamentalsthe Beltway compressed 50 bps over the year, while outside theBeltway rates increased by 50 bps. 18 16%In 2011, institutional investors remained the dominant players 16 14% 14in the region’s office building sales. Institutional investors 12 12% Square Feet (millions)accounted for 47% of DC Metro transactions last year, compared 10 10% 8 Vacancyto a 36% share for the U.S. as a whole. Private investors 8% 6made a comeback in DC last year, accounting for approximately 4 6%one in four purchase transactions. With fiscal troubles in the 2 4% 0Eurozone and the slowing growth in Asian markets, foreign 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2% -2investors again turned to the U.S. for investment alternatives. -4 0%International (cross-border) buyers continued to show strong New Deliveries Net Absorption Vacancy Rateinterest in the DC Metro. The Association of Foreign Investorsin Real Estate (AFIRE) ranked DC as the #3 top global city forforeign investment, behind New York City and London. Composition of DC Metro Office Buyers 100% 90% 20% 31% Institutional 80% 46% 47% 70% 64% 23% Cross-Border 8% 60% 10% 50% 15% Public 12% 12% Listed/REITs 40% 4% 12% Private 39% 17% 30% 7% 34% 20% 12% 23% 25% User/Other 10% 12% 12% 8% 5% 0% 2% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Real Capital Analytics6 | Cassidy Turley
  8. 8. Office LeasingOffice demand in DC Metro departed from its accelerated smallest amount of new space delivered to the market sincelevel of 2010. Metro-wide, a net 1.2 million square feet 1994. New deliveries will continue to be limited over thewere absorbed in 2011 compared to 5.7 million square feet next two years, giving the market a chance to recover andabsorbed a year earlier. However, it should be remembered that absorb excess space. An average 2.5 million square feet will2010 figures were inflated due to higher than normal leasing deliver annually in 2012/2013 metro-wide – that representsactivity by public sector tenants. Vigorous federal leasing approximately one-third of the 25-year annual average.velocity continued into the first quarter of 2011, but private Additionally, the supply of available sublet space also declinedbusinesses accounted for a significant share of leasing activity – up to 20 bps metro-wide – as tenants placed less space onfrom the second quarter through the end of the year. DC Metro the market in anticipation of future growth.ended 2011 with almost 700,000 square feet of government Asking rental rates for the region increased 1.5% during 2011net absorption in privately owned buildings, while the private to an average $35.45 psf. Still, this is well below the averagesector absorbed 530,000 square feet. annual increase of 2.9%. With slow net demand in 2012,Regional vacancy at year-end 2011 was 13.0% – exactly we expect asking rents to rise in the neighborhood of 1% towhere it was one year ago. Although net demand significantly 3%, metro-wide. Additionally, vacancy rates will not decreaseslowed compared to its level in 2010, vacancy rates were kept significantly over the next two years. Consequently, significantin check by a thin development pipeline. Metro-wide new rental increases will not occur until the 2013-2014 timeframe.building deliveries totaled only 1.3 million square feet—the AnnuAL ABSORPtiOn – VACAnCy – RentAL RAteS: DC MetRO MARketS 2008 2009 2010 2011WAShinGtOn DCAbsorption 755,000 116,000 3,873,000 799,000Vacancy 7.8% 11.7% 10.4% 10.4%Asking Rates $47.60 $47.50 $48.72 $49.53nORtheRn ViRGiniAAbsorption 1,239,000 (1,713,000) 1,759,000 (120,000)Vacancy 12.9% 14.8% 14.0% 14.2%Asking Rates $31.24 $29.72 $29.56 $30.25SuBuRBAn MARyLAnDAbsorption (900,000) (686,000) 107,000 553,000Vacancy 12.9% 15.2% 15.2% 15.1%Asking Rates $27.15 $26.77 $26.54 $26.57 cassidyturley.com | 7
  9. 9. Regional Markets2011 will enter the books as a year of volatility anduncertainty. As such, buyers were – and continue tobe – attracted to quality assets in core markets ratherthan those in secondary or tertiary markets.DistrictThe District of Columbia was one such Compared to the District’s 3.9 million still signed the top three largest leasesmarket and it continued to build on square feet of net absorption in 2010, in 2011: the Office of the Comptrollermomentum from 2010. The District 2011 seemed like a slow year. The of the Currency (OCC) for 650,000saw over $3.6 billion in office sales – a Washington, DC office leasing market square feet (backfilling some of the$1 billion increase over the sales total in ended 2011 just shy of 800,000 square unneeded space signed by the SEC2010. By the end of 2011, there were feet of net absorption – half of its 10- in 2010); NASA for almost 600,00030 sales transactions in the District – year historical average. Leasing activity square feet; and the U.S. Department ofan increase of 25% from 2010. Buyers shifted from the public to private sector State consolidation for 463,000 squarechasing assets in core markets like after the second quarter of 2011. feet. Alternatively, law firm HowreyDC drove up the average psf to $503 Whereas government leases accounted LLP’s dissolution left 320,000 square– the second highest average price in for over 80% of all space absorbed feet in the East End submarket.DC history. Three transactions over in 2010, only 52% of net leasing Despite diminishing net demand over$800 psf in the East End helped push in 2011 was from the public sector. the year, limited new building deliveriesaverages up. Nonetheless, the Federal Government helped keep vacancy rates in check. Vacancy ended the year exactly where it started – at 10.4%. With moderate demand, rental rates have flattened. Average asking rates in DC rose a few National Press Building, Washington, DC pennies over the past four quarters to end the year at $49.39 psf compared to $49.36 psf a year ago. Tenant incentive packages increased slightly toward the end of 2011, but are expected to remain stable in 2012 with landlords offering tenant improvements for new space in the $65 to $85 psf range with three to nine months of rental abatement.8 | Cassidy Turley
  10. 10. One Virginia Square, Arlington, VAnorthern VirginiaNorthern Virginia sales volume increased significantly in2011, totaling $3.2 billion in sales – more than double2010’s volume. In the fourth quarter of last year, one portfoliotransaction of $1.2 billion accounted for most of the entireyear’s growth: Goldman Sachs acquired a 90% ownership often properties from bankrupt Lehman Brothers. The average$345 psf sales rate was up $91 compared to that in 2010, asa mix of properties sold both inside and outside the Beltway.Three properties exceeded the $500 psf range: the VerisignBuilding in Reston ($533 psf), One Virginia Square in theRosslyn-Ballston Corridor ($533 psf), and 1300 N 17th Streetin Rosslyn ($529 psf).Northern Virginia leasing activity was a mixed bag during 2011.After what seemed like a positive recovery in the second andthird quarters, fourth quarter leasing hit a down note and broughtannual net absorption in the market to a negative 125,000square feet. Verizon’s consolidation into DC and other NorthernVirginia locations left the Arlington submarket with 300,000sf of vacant space in 1Q 2011. Additional consolidationsand moves at Accenture, the U.S. Postal Service, and NorthropGrumman weighed heavily on net demand figures. Fortunately,only 269,000 square feet of new building space delivered tothe market – the smallest amount in 17 years. With limitednew supply, vacancy increased to 14.2% by the end of 2011,0.2% higher than one year ago. The dichotomy betweenmarkets inside and outside the Beltway continued, but pasttrends were reversed. Net absorption outside the Beltway waspositive, ending 2011 at 816,000 square feet; inside theBeltway net absorption was a negative 941,000 square feet.Reston Town Center and other toll road markets experiencedstrong demand from the technology sector. Though BRAC-related move-outs had a limited effect on market performancein Arlington, consolidations and relocations were enough toincrease Arlington’s vacancy rate to 10.6% at the end of 2011,up from 7.9% in 4Q 2010. Developers are still focused onthe long-term resiliency of the Northern Virginia markets asevidenced by groundbreakings in Arlington and Tysons Corner.Despite the bad news on net demand, Northern Virginia’saverage rental rate rose 2.3% to end the year at $30.25 psf. cassidyturley.com | 9
  11. 11. Regional MarketsNorthern Virginia will remain relatively quiet throughout 2012 feet, proof of the private sector continuing to lease up spaceas defense contractors try to figure out the impact of proposed in suburban Maryland. As a result of these developments,federal budget cuts on their businesses and space requirements. the vacancy rate inched down 0.1% over the year and stoodTechnology and financial services will remain active players in at 15.1% at the end of 2011. After three years of declines,the market. Additionally, Northern Virginia will continue to be asking rents increased slightly to $26.57 by the end of thea magnet, attracting new private sector businesses to the region year, three pennies higher than they were a year ago.as evidenced by Bechtel’s global operations relocation from The suburban Maryland economy continues to recover slowly.Frederick, MD to Reston. Still, until more certainty is gained Suburban Maryland saw an additional 3,400 nonfarm payrollsafter the November elections, hiring (and, therefore, office in 2011 – the most jobs added since 2006. The Educationspace absorption) will be subdued for the next 12-18 months. and Health sectors continued to lead local job growth, while theSuburban Maryland Professional and Business Services sector added approximately 1,000 jobs over the year. Additionally, the Financial ActivitiesMomentum returned to the suburban Maryland market in 2011. sector reversed its trend of consecutive annual job losses thatOffice sales more than doubled from their pace in 2010. Sales have been taking place since 2006. With continued, steadyvolume ended 2011 with $507 million in transactions. Thirteen job growth, measured office leasing activity, and limited supply,deals closed during the year, although that number is well below we expect vacancy rates to remain relatively flat over the nextthe historical average of 24 transactions in a typical year. Price three years. Mass transit and amenity-rich submarkets such aspsf increased significantly to $275 in 2011 compared to $178 Bethesda-Chevy Chase and the Rockville Pike corridor will leadin 2010. Strength was particularly evident in well-located Maryland’s recovery. Locations lacking public transportationbuildings closer to the urban core. The most notable deal was access will struggle to compete.JBG’s sale of One Bethesda Metro in Bethesda, which tradedhands for just over $90 million, or $500 psf. JBG purchasedthe building two years ago for $71 million.The suburban Maryland office leasing market saw markedimprovement last year. Absorption for 2011 totaled 553,000square feet, outperforming its 10-year average by almost 50%.The largest non-renewal transactions were preleases by theNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)and Choice Hotels in new buildings yet to be delivered. Alsonotable were a 105,000 square foot lease signed by Meso ScaleDiagnostics and one by IFC Macro that took 98,000 square10 | Cassidy Turley
  12. 12. One Washingtonian Center, Gaithersburg, MD cassidyturley.com | 11
  13. 13. Looking AheadWith many changes in both the public and private sectors,2011 can be summarized as both volatile and uncertain.Even though the metro economy went through many upsand downs in 2011, 17,900 jobs were added.Still, this is about half of the historical average. Compared • Employment will continue to grow slowly throughout theto prior years, job growth has been slower to translate into year (a year of a presidential election) and into 2013.leasing activity. This is due to the large amount of “shadow Hiring will come primarily from the private sector as thespace” that businesses have had to absorb. The good news is Federal Government reduces payrolls through attrition andthat sublet inventory has declined – an indication that tenants retirement. Expect employment gains to reach a moreare absorbing their current space and planning expansions “normal” pace in the second half of 2013 and into 2014.for the future. Additionally, investors continue to find DC • On average, total federal outlays in the DC area haveMetro an attractive area to invest due to its strong economic increased by 7.2% annually over the past 25 years.fundamentals. Federal outlays have increased every single year for DCMoving forward, we expect the region to continue a slow, but Metro, despite some years of decreases on a nationalsteady recovery: basis. With a focus on deficit reduction, regional spending will definitely slow. The final outcomes of proposed• As focus shifted some to core plus properties and federal spending cuts are uncertain. Federal agencies and secondary / tertiary markets during 2011, momentum will contractors will be hesitant to make long-term decisions gravitate back to core properties in prime locations due until deficit reduction details are ironed out and the to uncertainties in the markets during 2012. Investors national election takes place in November. will still focus on major metro areas such as Washington, • With moderate demand in the near term coupled with DC and New York, NY due to their market stability and the DC region’s thin office supply pipeline over the next potential for future growth. In DC Metro, expect the three years (2012-2014), we expect office vacancy rates majority of office sales to occur inside the Beltway and in in metro DC to tick down moderately to 12.9% by the end core markets during 2012. of 2012.• After $7.2 billion in office sales in 2011, strong market • Leasing concessions started to stabilize in most of the fundamentals remain for the DC Metro market. We DC metro area in 2011, though they increased slightly forecast 2012 office investment sales volume to revert by year’s end. With subdued leasing activity over the back towards the historical average of $5.4 billion in sales, near term, vacancy rates are not expected to decrease metro-wide. significantly. Thus, the region will not see sizable rental• Cap rates appear to have stabilized with nowhere to increases across the board until the 2013 timeframe and go but up. Still, with 10-year treasuries hovering beyond. around 2%, some economists forecast a further • Bush tax cuts are set to expire by year’s end, prompting decline approaching 1.5% in 2012. If so, this some investors to consider completing transactions in provides more room for further cap rate compression. 2012 to take advantage of the lower tax rates.12 | Cassidy Turley
  14. 14. 12061 Bluemont Way, Reston, VA OFFiCe LeASinG VACAnCy FOReCASt WAShinGtOn MetRO AReA MARketS 2011 2012 2013 10 year Average DC 10.4% 10.1% 10.0% 8.0% NoVA 14.2% 14.0% 13.7% 13.5% Suburban MD 15.2% 15.1% 15.0% 12.1% DC Metro 13.0% 12.9% 12.6% 11.2% cassidyturley.com | 13
  15. 15. 2011 Office Sales TransactionsWASHINGTON, DCBuilding Address Total Price Total SF Price / SF1399 New York Avenue NW $104,000,0002131 K Street NW $28,800,000740 15th Street NW $69,250,0001100 1st Street NE $180,000,0001400 Eye Street NW $58,450,0001100 17th Street NW $49,750,0002600 Virginia Avenue NW $76,000,0001130 Connecticut Avenue NW $105,500,0001200 17th Street NW $39,650,000700 13th Street NW $120,000,0001301 Connecticut Avenue NW $25,309,6221200 1st Street NE $149,500,000529 14th Street NW $167,500,000325 7th Street NW $139,000,000700 6th Street NW $191,000,0001140 & 1146 19th Street NW $39,500,0001100 & 1101 4th Street SW $356,000,000601 New Jersey Avenue NW $106,000,0001227 25th Street NW $47,000,000840 1st Street NE $90,000,0001101 K Street NW $199,000,000701 & 801 Pennsylvania Avenue NW $615,000,0002115 & 2121 Wisconsin Avenue NW $66,500,0001600 K Street NW $35,000,0002300 N Street NW $140,000,0001331 L Street NW $101,000,0001331 H Street NW $23,000,0001255 23rd Street NW $137,400,0001155 15th Street NW $29,200,0001140 Connecticut Avenue NW $80,250,0002011 TOTAL (34 Buildings) $3,568,559,622Notes:1. Bold/Italic indicates Cassidy Turley transaction2. The information contained in the 2011 Office Sales Transaction charts was obtained from sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or representation is made to the accuracy thereof. This infromation is provided subject to correction of errors and omissions. Includes buildings 50,000 square feet or more.14 | Cassidy Turley
  16. 16. Seller Buyer Sales Transaction details available in printed version For copy of brochure, please click here and include your full contact information. cassidyturley.com | 15
  17. 17. 2011 Office Sales Transactions NOrTHerN VIrGINIA Building Address Total Price Total SF Price / SF 4050 & 4000 Legato Road $128,700,000 2675-2677 Prosperity Avenue $105,000,000 12061 Bluemont Way $118,000,000 1400 Wilson Boulevard $52,650,000 3601 Wilson Boulevard $61,850,000 12930 Worldgate Drive $65,000,000 1000, 1100, 1101, 1200, 1401, 1501 & 1515 Wilson Blvd; 1812 N Moore St, $1,221,650,419 1400 Key Blvd; 1701 N Fort Myer Dr 601 North Fairfax Street $21,000,000 1555 Wilson Boulevard $67,000,000 11130, 11180 & 11190 Sunrise Valley Drive $63,000,000 8283 Greensboro Drive $73,500,000 1310, 1320, 1330 & 1340 Braddock Place $101,000,000 14420, 14428 & 14426 Albemarle Point Place * $28,713,126 2000 & 2002 Edmund Halley Drive $50,500,000 1616 N Fort Myer Drive $145,500,000 1881 Campus Commons Drive $64,400,000 1764A, 1764, 1768, 1755-1757 & 1761 Old Meadow Road $138,550,000 7700 Leesburg Pike $15,000,000 6400 & 6402 Arlington Boulevard $81,526,000 44084 Riverside Parkway $8,250,000 12700 Sunrise Valley Drive $16,600,000 8000 Westpark Drive $27,200,000 45335 Vintage Park Plaza $5,284,000 1300 N 17th Street $205,000,000 700 S Washington Street $12,125,000 2050 Ballenger Avenue $24,696,000 4114 Legato Road $60,250,000 2300 Dulles Station Boulevard $58,800,000 2222 & 2216 Gallows Road $22,800,000 4755 Meadows Wood Lane $23,775,000 3150 Fairview Park Drive $89,250,000 2011 TOTAL (56 Buildings) $3,156,569,545 * Includes office portion only of WRIT portfolio sale. Sales price allocated as part of total portfolio transaction.16 | Cassidy Turley
  18. 18. Seller Buyer Sales Transaction details available in printed version For copy of brochure, please click here and include your full contact information. cassidyturley.com | 17
  19. 19. 2011 Office Sales Transactions SuBurBAN MArYLAND Building Address Total Price Total SF Price / SF 4800 Hampden Lane $90,300,000 3 Bethesda Metro Center $150,100,000 20271 Goldenrod Lane $15,035,688 11141 Georgia Avenue $8,280,000 1400 Spring Street $11,500,000 8301 Professional Place $23,300,000 15245 Shady Grove Road $32,036,000 540 Gaither Road $35,230,000 9801 Washingtonian Boulevard $90,000,000 6010 Executive Boulevard $14,350,000 8181 Professional Place $5,250,000 9841 Washingtonian Boulevard $32,000,000 2011 TOTAL (12 Buildings) $507,381,688 2011 TOTAL DC METRO $7,232,510,85518 | Cassidy Turley
  20. 20. Seller Buyer Sales Transaction details available in printed version For copy of brochure, please click here and include your full contact information. cassidyturley.com | 19
  21. 21. MultifamilyMultifamily investment performed extremely well in 2011.With strong economic and employment fundamentals, largemetros like Washington, DC have attracted investors.Real Capital Analytics reports that from January through types of renters. Additionally, strains on the currentDecember 2011, the DC Metro market saw 25,500 multifamily transportation infrastructure will not improve sufficiently,units trade hands for $4.7 billion, thus ranking DC Metro thus demand for transit-oriented locations and those close#1 nationally for total sales volume. DC investment sales to major work centers will remain high.had a record year, surpassing 2006 totals by $600 million.Institutional investors have helped fuel this growth, accounting • Homeownership rates peaked several years ago. In the near term, homeownership rates will remain at lower levels.for 44% of multifamily purchases in the DC market. Average Expect more households to rent by choice (especially truecap rates have compressed, and they are delivering returns of of the Gen-Y population). At least in the short to medium350 to 400 bps above the ultra-low 10-year treasury. term, many will continue to have difficulties qualifying forMultifamily vacancy rates have been declining. Vacancy rates a mortgage, saving for a down payment, and strugglingwere 3.5% in Northern Virginia, 4.5% in suburban Maryland, with home affordability. That supports increased demandand 5.2% in the District. Strong market fundamentals have for rental units.attracted not only investors but developers as well. After alull in activity, multifamily building permits in the DC regionare approaching levels not seen since 2006. The difference Composition of DC Metro Multifamily Buyersbetween permits issued in 2006 compared to those issued in 100% 9%2011 is that multifamily permits last year have been primarily 90% 29% 9% Institutionalfor rental housing instead of for-sale condominiums. 80% 43% 44% 17% 70% Cross-BorderOutlook 60% 31% 1% 6% Public• Market fundamentals remain strong for the DC multifamily 50% Listed/REITs 40% 32% market. With uncertainties in the economy and political 61% 25% Private 30% climate, investment dollars will be attracted to stable 38% 20% metro markets such as DC. 19% User/Other 10% 24%• Population supports multifamily demand in DC. Over 0% 2% 4% 6% 2008 2009 2010 2011 67,000 people are expected to migrate to the DC metro Source: Real Capital Analytics area over the next five years. Varying product types across the region will be needed to accommodate different20 | Cassidy Turley
  22. 22. Multifamily Chris Doerr, Managing Director Corner After years of relative anonymity, multifamily has risen2011 Multifamily Sales Volume to prominence as one of the top asset classes of choice $5.0 9% among Washington DC Metro area investors. It seems $4.5 8% like every day we read about multifamily assets trading $4.0 at very aggressive pricing. More and more buyers have 7% $3.5 begun focusing on this asset type and the large majority 6% $3.0 of them ask me the same question, “Are you worried 5% about oversupply?” The short answer to this question isBillions $2.5 $2.0 Sales Vol Avg Cap Rate 4% “No I am not worried about oversupply,” and there are 3% three primary reasons why. $1.5 $1.0 2% The first reason I am not concerned with oversupply $0.5 1% is that there has been a drastic movement away from $0.0 0% homeownership. Homeownership rates peaked several years ago and have been declining steadily ever since. By s ro a an e rk on er on go o x s l la nt ni tl eg et le nv Yo Fr a st st at la oe Da M Di ge ic De Bo ou Se At n ew Ch Ph An the numbers, there were 33.7 million rental households DC Sa n H Sa N s LoSources: Real Capital Analytics, Cassidy Turley in the U.S. in 2000 and there are expected to be 46.8 million rental households by 2015. I expect this trend to continue and even accelerate in years to come. Gone also is the stigma of being a “renter” as more people,net Demand for Apartments increasing especially those in urban areas, have become “rentersDC Metro, Net Absorption by choice.” Renters love the flexibility of not being 9,000 tied down to a 30 year mortgage and the hassles and responsibilities that come with home ownership. This 7,000 evolution toward renting makes it impossible to use past 5,000 performance as an indicator of the future. People focus# of Units 3,000 on “future pipeline vs. past absorption” but that is not 1,000 an “apples to apples” comparison. -1,000 The second reason I am not concerned with oversupply -3,000 is that many of the predicted pipeline of units will never -5,000 materialize. Delta Associates predicts that 34,500 units 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 are in the 36 month pipeline, which looks harrowing at DC NoVA MD first blush. However, when you dig a little deeper, a large majority of projects in the pipeline are suburban / rural deals that do not have any of their required approvals in place. Also, a significant portion of the “approved” deals in the pipeline are the wrong product type forApartment Vacancy Rates their submarket and will never be able to get financed.DC Metro So after further review, when you consider the deals in 8.0% the pipeline that are likely to move forward, oversupply 7.0% shouldn’t come into play. The final, and perhaps most important reason, is that 6.0% 5.0% urban / multifamily living is becoming the new normal. 4.0% The younger generation is looking for a 24/7 lifestyle 3.0% where they can live, work, and play in a single location. 2.0% Rising gas prices and long commutes have contributed 1.0% to this change as well, as more young families seek an urban lifestyle. The age of suburbanization and 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 growing homeownership is over. Those who fail to understand these new trends will miss opportunities or DC MD VA find themselves building / buying what is no longer in demand.
  23. 23. FinanceDebt MarketsCassidy Turley’s debt specialists answer key questions affecting commercial real estate lending.John Campanella & Christian MilesSenior Managing DirectorsQ: Who are the active borrowers in today’s debt markets? Q: Can properties that are still in lease-up or have significant lease roll get financing?JC: We are seeing strong activity from private equity funds. TheOpportunity and Core Plus funds are focused on securing short- CM: Cassidy Turley has had significant success financingterm debt (5 years or less) with maximum flexibility. properties still in lease-up or with potential lease roll in the next 12 to 24 months. The secret for us has been tapping theMore specifically, the funds are looking for loans with no resources of our leasing and research teams and getting theprepayment penalties or restrictions, flexible release provisions, “behind-the-scenes” story about how the property competes inand additional proceeds that are funded over the loan term its submarket. Lenders really appreciate knowing the detailsfor the TI/LC or capital expenses necessary to complete their of a specific property’s competitive advantages. This givesbusiness plans. lenders a good feeling for the likely risks, and they will then respond more forcefully with how they will structure the loanIn order to achieve that level of flexibility, we have been working to address those risks. On five different transactions in 2011,with bank balance sheets. The current macro environment has our ability to provide insight to lenders about tenants in thepushed the banks to be conservative on leverage, topping out at market and specific tenant inclinations about staying or leaving65% LTV. The pricing for these types of loans is 200-300 basis a property was the difference in our ability to get good financingpoints over Libor depending on the product type and market. terms for our clients.If a transaction requires leverage beyond 65% LTV, we are Q: What do you expect out of the debt markets in 2012?looking to the mezzanine market which can potentially pushthe combined LTV to 80%. The pricing for these types of JC: The CMBS market will continue to tighten along with steadymezzanine loans has been between 8% and 10%. increase in demand in 2012. The CMBS pricing has been volatile this past year. In the first quarter of 2011, we sawOn the other end of the spectrum, the Core funds are targeting pricing in the 5.25% - 5.50% range.the lowest cost of capital at 50% LTV. They prefer the longer-term money. Today, the lower leveraged 10-year loan is pricing Over the summer, the market became unstable and pricingin the 4% range. The key strategy for the Core funds has been increased to 6.25% - 6.50%, then it started to stabilize into keep overall fund leverage in the 30% range. September. Since November, the 10-year pricing has dropped back to the 5% range, showing that the market is stabilizing. 2011 FinAnCe PARAMeteRS Product type LtV DSC Rate Amortization Life Company 65% - 70% 1.25x 4.00% - 4.75% 25 - 30 years Bank 70% - 75% 1.25x 2.75% - 3.25% I/O then 30 years CMBS 70% - 75% 1.25x – 1.30x 5.25% - 5.75% I/O then 30 years Agency 55% - 80% 1.25x- 1.55x 3.85% - 4.25% 30 years22 | Cassidy Turley
  24. 24. 1001 Fleet Street, Baltimore, MD For the most part, life companies have increased allocations for banks return to the market later this year. When you combine 2012. They will continue to dominate the larger transactions the capital-rich domestic banks and the reemergence of the inside the beltway focusing on placing longer-term money. We international banks, the result should be a very competitive will see 10-year pricing in the 4% - 4.5% range. loan environment in the second half of 2012. The smaller life companies will become more creative with Q: Are historically strong lender appetites for Multifamily loans structures by providing shorter-term loans (3-5 years) with ebbing in 2012? floating and fixed rates. We expect them to begin pushing CM: On the contrary, multifamily (MF) remains a highly sought- leverage to win the higher quality suburban deals with good after property type by many lenders. Freddie originated 15% sponsorship. Pricing for 10-year deals will be in the 4.5% - 5% more MF loans in 2011 (vs. 2010), and they are forecasting range with LTV at 70% - 75%. Keep in mind, the larger life another 10% jump in volume in 2012. Insurance companies companies will continue to be conservative on leverage, but will remain underweighted in MF loans, so they will be competing win the larger Core deals, with the sweet spot at 60% LTV and for this business. CMBS typically doesn’t try to compete with 4% pricing for 10-year money. the agencies, but they are very effective financing student Domestic Banks will continue to be active in 2012, as they housing and second-tier locations. The only cautionary note is are flush with capital. The 5-year terms are more attractive that lenders know that Washington’s strong rental growth during than ever with private equity funds, but the banks do have the first half of 2011 has slowed. Lenders are asking tough size restrictions. The typical bank will only hold $30 to $50 questions about new supply. And lenders are also looking at million and will syndicate out to other banks the remaining loan whether MF properties generate enough net operating income balance. Today, the bank syndications are done post closing, to provide good coverage at loan maturity in a higher interest protecting the borrower from little, if any exposure. For a bank rate environment – say 5.5% or 6.0%. For MF properties in to stay competitive in 2012, they will need to be comfortable transition or being repositioned following a renovation, many with mezzanine financing. of the banks are bidding aggressively for their business. The banks bring some expertise and confidence to such programs As long as we see CMBS staying healthy and providing the if they have agency lending programs of their own. All-in-all, market with liquidity, the domestic banks will continue to be 2012 should be another good year for MF finance. an excellent source of capital. We expect to see the European cassidyturley.com | 23