Impact of exports on economic growth of ecowas countries a comparative analysisimpact of exports on economic growth of ecowas countries a comparative analysis
This document is a project report submitted in partial fulfillment of a Master of Business Administration degree. It examines the impact of exports on economic growth in ECOWAS countries through a comparative analysis. The report includes a declaration by the author, a certificate from the project supervisor, acknowledgements, table of contents, list of abbreviations and an abstract. It provides an overview of ECOWAS and profiles key member countries including Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde and Cote d'Ivoire. The report analyzes the composition and contribution of exports in these countries' economies.
This document discusses the relationship between export and economic growth in Nigeria. It begins with an abstract noting that while some economists argue export competition improves productivity, others argue it can negatively impact local industries. The document aims to empirically test the relationship between export and GDP in Nigeria. It provides background on Nigeria's economic history, including a reliance on oil exports. It reviews theories on how export can impact growth, including Ricardo's comparative advantage model. Tables show Nigeria's weak manufacturing exports as a percentage of total exports. The document aims to analyze problems with Nigeria's exports and propose solutions to strengthen manufacturing exports and economic growth.
- The document analyzes the relationship between export, import, and economic growth in Sri Lanka from 1970 to 2010.
- It finds that export and import have a significant positive relationship with each other and both have a significant impact on economic growth. Export and import are associated at 98%, indicating a strong positive association.
- The study uses time series analysis and regression analysis on data from 1970 to 2010. The results show export and import significantly influence economic growth in Sri Lanka.
This document summarizes a research thesis that assesses Nigeria's trade policy between 1984 and 2011. It begins by providing background on Nigeria's pursuit of trade as an engine for development and the historical shifts in its trade policies from protectionism to liberalization. It describes the country's import substitution strategy in early independence, followed by a shift towards exports promotion in 1981. Further policy changes introduced greater trade restrictions and licensing in the 1980s in response to economic pressures. Recent trade policies under NEEDS since 2003 have aimed to gradually liberalize the trade regime while ensuring domestic adjustment costs do not outweigh benefits. However, the research finds that trade policies over this period have not significantly contributed to Nigeria's development.
Foreign trade and economic growth in nigeria (1980 2010)Alexander Decker
1. The document discusses foreign trade and economic growth in Nigeria from 1980-2010. It analyzes how foreign trade has impacted Nigeria's economy and growth over this period.
2. Nigeria traditionally relied on agricultural exports like cocoa, palm oil, and groundnuts, but since the 1960s oil has dominated exports. Oil exports now account for over 90% of total exports.
3. While foreign trade can promote growth, Nigeria still faces economic instability and import dependence. The heavy reliance on oil exports has also neglected development of other sectors like agriculture.
Public policy and trade liberalisation in nigerian economic developmentAlexander Decker
This document discusses public policy and trade liberalization in Nigerian economic development. It provides background on Nigeria's trade policies since 1986, which centered on greater market openness and integration into the global economy. It analyzes the impacts of specific trade liberalization policies like trade openness, privatization, investment flows, and import tariffs on Nigeria's economic development. The analysis finds that trade liberalization has not had a positive impact on Nigeria's economic development. Accountability, transparency, and good governance are recommended to improve economic policy and encourage self-reliance through export promotion and import substitution.
Effect of international trade on economic growth in kenyaAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the effect of international trade on economic growth in Kenya from 1960 to 2010. It uses a multiple linear regression model to examine the relationship between GDP growth rate and several independent variables including exchange rate, inflation, and final government consumption. The findings show that exchange rate had no significant effect on GDP growth, while inflation had a negative and significant effect. Final government consumption had a positive effect on GDP growth in Kenya. The study recommends policies to promote exports, maintain low inflation, and encourage government expenditure on development projects.
The document presents an empirical study investigating the nexus between Nigeria's agricultural sector export base and economic growth from 1980 to 2017. It finds that:
1) A cointegrating relationship exists between economic growth, agricultural raw material exports, and food exports in the long run.
2) In the long run, agricultural raw material exports have an inverse effect on economic growth, while food exports have a positive effect.
3) In the short run, positive dynamic influences run from both agricultural raw material and food exports to economic growth.
This study investigates specifically the effect of Imports and Exports on Balance of Foreign Trade in Nigeria (GDP). Data were collected for period 2007 – 2016. Multiple Regressions Approach and Correlation Analysis was used, defining Imports, Exports and Openness as independent variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as dependent variable. From the analysis, Imports, Exports and Openness contributes immensely to the Nigeria Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Contrary, Imports is positively and significant on Balance of Foreign Trade in Nigeria (GDP), Exports has positively and insignificant on Balance of Foreign Trade in Nigeria (GDP) and Openness has positively and insignificant on Balance of Foreign Trade in Nigeria (GDP). Also, there is a perfect positive association on gross domestic product between imports on the balance of foreign trade in Nigeria and it is significant, with a perfect positive association on gross domestic product and imports between exports on the balance of foreign trade in Nigeria and it is significant and there is a negative moderate association on gross domestic product, imports and exports between openness on the balance of foreign trade in Nigeria and it is insignificant. This study therefore recommends that Nigeria should enhance her Imports & Exports promotion strategies and expanding the Import sector for easy importation.
This document discusses the relationship between export and economic growth in Nigeria. It begins with an abstract noting that while some economists argue export competition improves productivity, others argue it can negatively impact local industries. The document aims to empirically test the relationship between export and GDP in Nigeria. It provides background on Nigeria's economic history, including a reliance on oil exports. It reviews theories on how export can impact growth, including Ricardo's comparative advantage model. Tables show Nigeria's weak manufacturing exports as a percentage of total exports. The document aims to analyze problems with Nigeria's exports and propose solutions to strengthen manufacturing exports and economic growth.
- The document analyzes the relationship between export, import, and economic growth in Sri Lanka from 1970 to 2010.
- It finds that export and import have a significant positive relationship with each other and both have a significant impact on economic growth. Export and import are associated at 98%, indicating a strong positive association.
- The study uses time series analysis and regression analysis on data from 1970 to 2010. The results show export and import significantly influence economic growth in Sri Lanka.
This document summarizes a research thesis that assesses Nigeria's trade policy between 1984 and 2011. It begins by providing background on Nigeria's pursuit of trade as an engine for development and the historical shifts in its trade policies from protectionism to liberalization. It describes the country's import substitution strategy in early independence, followed by a shift towards exports promotion in 1981. Further policy changes introduced greater trade restrictions and licensing in the 1980s in response to economic pressures. Recent trade policies under NEEDS since 2003 have aimed to gradually liberalize the trade regime while ensuring domestic adjustment costs do not outweigh benefits. However, the research finds that trade policies over this period have not significantly contributed to Nigeria's development.
Foreign trade and economic growth in nigeria (1980 2010)Alexander Decker
1. The document discusses foreign trade and economic growth in Nigeria from 1980-2010. It analyzes how foreign trade has impacted Nigeria's economy and growth over this period.
2. Nigeria traditionally relied on agricultural exports like cocoa, palm oil, and groundnuts, but since the 1960s oil has dominated exports. Oil exports now account for over 90% of total exports.
3. While foreign trade can promote growth, Nigeria still faces economic instability and import dependence. The heavy reliance on oil exports has also neglected development of other sectors like agriculture.
Public policy and trade liberalisation in nigerian economic developmentAlexander Decker
This document discusses public policy and trade liberalization in Nigerian economic development. It provides background on Nigeria's trade policies since 1986, which centered on greater market openness and integration into the global economy. It analyzes the impacts of specific trade liberalization policies like trade openness, privatization, investment flows, and import tariffs on Nigeria's economic development. The analysis finds that trade liberalization has not had a positive impact on Nigeria's economic development. Accountability, transparency, and good governance are recommended to improve economic policy and encourage self-reliance through export promotion and import substitution.
Effect of international trade on economic growth in kenyaAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the effect of international trade on economic growth in Kenya from 1960 to 2010. It uses a multiple linear regression model to examine the relationship between GDP growth rate and several independent variables including exchange rate, inflation, and final government consumption. The findings show that exchange rate had no significant effect on GDP growth, while inflation had a negative and significant effect. Final government consumption had a positive effect on GDP growth in Kenya. The study recommends policies to promote exports, maintain low inflation, and encourage government expenditure on development projects.
The document presents an empirical study investigating the nexus between Nigeria's agricultural sector export base and economic growth from 1980 to 2017. It finds that:
1) A cointegrating relationship exists between economic growth, agricultural raw material exports, and food exports in the long run.
2) In the long run, agricultural raw material exports have an inverse effect on economic growth, while food exports have a positive effect.
3) In the short run, positive dynamic influences run from both agricultural raw material and food exports to economic growth.
This study investigates specifically the effect of Imports and Exports on Balance of Foreign Trade in Nigeria (GDP). Data were collected for period 2007 – 2016. Multiple Regressions Approach and Correlation Analysis was used, defining Imports, Exports and Openness as independent variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as dependent variable. From the analysis, Imports, Exports and Openness contributes immensely to the Nigeria Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Contrary, Imports is positively and significant on Balance of Foreign Trade in Nigeria (GDP), Exports has positively and insignificant on Balance of Foreign Trade in Nigeria (GDP) and Openness has positively and insignificant on Balance of Foreign Trade in Nigeria (GDP). Also, there is a perfect positive association on gross domestic product between imports on the balance of foreign trade in Nigeria and it is significant, with a perfect positive association on gross domestic product and imports between exports on the balance of foreign trade in Nigeria and it is significant and there is a negative moderate association on gross domestic product, imports and exports between openness on the balance of foreign trade in Nigeria and it is insignificant. This study therefore recommends that Nigeria should enhance her Imports & Exports promotion strategies and expanding the Import sector for easy importation.
Effecto exchange rate fluctuations on manufacturing sector in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1985 to 2010. It uses variables like manufacturing GDP, foreign investment, employment, and exchange rates. The study found that exchange rates and foreign investment have a positive impact on manufacturing GDP. It recommends that the government promote export diversification, restrict imports of goods also made in Nigeria, and maintain a stable exchange rate to improve the manufacturing sector performance. The paper provides context on Nigeria's fluctuating exchange rates over time and reviews several other studies that also found exchange rates influence economic growth and agricultural exports.
This document discusses exports, imports, and economic growth in India based on a study conducted by Dr. K. Sathiya. It summarizes the literature on export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses and examines the causal relationship between exports, imports, and GDP in India from 1951/52 to 2003/2004. The results show that exports and imports individually and jointly Granger-cause GDP, supporting export-led growth and import-led growth. There is also some evidence that GDP jointly Granger-causes imports and exports. The findings imply that both exports and imports have positively impacted India's economic growth.
Agricultural Export, Oil Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Multivariate ...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
Abstract—Sustaining of nation’s economic growth for better footing and outlook is very crucial for the globe of recent, most especially for developing countries like Nigeria. The country as a vivid example of a developing nation is oil based economy, which adopts export promotion policy as the essentialtactic for growth. Yet the nation has not maximized her abundance of resources to aids growth, despite notable economic growth being experienced. In this view, there is an attempt to examine the relationship among agricultural export, oil export and output growth in Nigeria. The causal relationship among the variables was investigated by using times series data for the period between 1981 and 2014. All the macroeconomic variables were found to be stationary. The study revealed that there is significant relationship between economic growth and the agricultural export and oil export. Based on the findings, government of the country is being advised to initiate new and re-defined old policies that will diversify the export base. Likewise, policies that will improveand aid the nation’s domestic production is being encouraged, since long run relationship has been established among the macroeconomic variables.
Trade Liberalization and Trade Flows in Nigeria An Aggregated Analysisijtsrd
This study examines the impact of trade liberalization and trade flows in Nigeria using an econometric regression model of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . From the result of the OLS, it is observed that trade flows and export subsidies have a positive relationship with economic growth. This means that when trade flows and export subsidies are increasing, it will bring about more growth in Nigerian economy. On the other hand, import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes have a negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This means that if import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes are falling, there will be increase in economic growth. From the empirical work reviewed, some authors argued that trade liberalization and trade flows is positively related to economic growth while some authors argued that it is negatively related. The findings of the study also show that trade flows, import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes are statistically significant in explaining the Nigerian economy while export subsidy is statistically insignificant. The study therefore recommends that government should encourage import liberalization through reduction in tariff rates, gradual removal of Non-Tariff Barriers NTB , outright banning of certain goods which will ensure that our imports, following trade liberalization, is directed mainly on intermediate and capital goods. Imports of consumables would be brought to nil and therefore there would be a corresponding increase in the production of competitive import. Finally, the government should vigorously seek to improve the international stand of the economy with other economies of the world so as to enlarge the market for Nigerian exports. It should also re-orient its policy towards the external sector and ensure that the sector contribute optimally to output growth. Anionwu, Carol "Trade Liberalization and Trade Flows in Nigeria: An Aggregated Analysis" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-2 | Issue-6 , October 2018, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd18911.pdf
foreign trade as an engine of economic growthMitikaAnjel
Foreign trade acts as an "engine" of economic growth in three key ways: 1) It enlarges a country's market for exports, leading to greater production and utilization of resources; 2) Expanding exports provides more employment opportunities and economies of scale, lowering costs; 3) Access to global markets encourages innovation as businesses compete with international counterparts, improving efficiency and productivity. For example, the opening of the Suez Canal increased India's exports of commercial crops like cotton and tea, fueling economic growth. Export processing zones also create jobs and incomes, stimulating demand and further domestic manufacturing. Overall, specialization, competition and technological adoption spurred by foreign trade can power economic expansion.
Import, Export and Economic Growth: the Case of Lower Income CountryIOSRJBM
Bangladesh is now considered as a lower middle-incomecountry by the blessing of international trade.Therefore, Bangladesh needs to take an effective policymaking decision in terms of international trade fortheirfurther development. Hence it is important to check whether Bangladesh needs more import or export for its further development. As a result, current research tries to see the relationship between import and GDP growth of Bangladesh by taking 32 years (1981-1992) of time series data.Relevant data were collected from the Bangladesh Bank website and World Bank Database. From the analysis, theresearcherconcludes that import is negatively related with GPD growth as well as GDP growth rate is also negatively related with Import.
A survey of foreign exchange rate determinants in nigeriaAlexander Decker
The document presents a study that investigates factors that determine foreign exchange rates in Nigeria over the period 1960-2011. Regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the foreign exchange rate and several independent macroeconomic variables including GDP, balance of payments, external reserves, inflation, deposit rates, and lending rates. The results of the regression showed no statistically significant relationship between the foreign exchange rate and any of the independent variables over the time period analyzed.
11.[27 40]the impact of macroeconomic variables on non-oil exports performanc...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, interest rate, government capital expenditure, government recurrent expenditure) on non-oil exports, the agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, and GDP in Nigeria from 1986-2010. The study used ordinary least squares regression and cointegration analysis. The results showed that exchange rate, government capital expenditure, and government recurrent expenditure were positively related to non-oil exports, agriculture, manufacturing, and GDP, while interest rate was negatively related. Based on these findings, the study recommends increasing investment in non-oil exports, agriculture, and manufacturing, as well as decreasing interest rates and increasing government expenditures.
Extant literature revealed that international trade plays a key role to address the economic phenomena and can help to earn foreign exchange. Despite the accruable benefits from international trade and the countrys huge oil export that account for about 90 of its foreign exchange earnings, Nigerias trade balance and exchange rate remain unfavourable. The persistent rise in Nigerias exchange rate and unfavourable trade balance in recent time warrants an empirical probe. This study therefore examines the effect of exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income, consumption expenditure, money supply and interest rate on trade balance using a secondary time series data covering a period of thirty years from 1991 2020. The study employed a regression technique of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . All data used were secondary data obtained from the statistical bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria CBN and National Bureau of Statistics NBS annual publications. After determining stationarity of the study variables using the ADF Statistic, it was discovered that the variables were all integrated at level, first and second difference, and found out to be stationary at their first difference. The study also using Johansen Cointegration Test, found that there is a long run relationship between the variables. Hence, the implication of this result is that there is a long run relationship between trade balance and other variables used in the model. From the result of the OLS, it is observed that exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income and money supply have a positive and significant impact on trade balance in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should fixed or peg on the exchange rate through the central bank. This will enable the government to buy and sell its own currency against the currency to which it is pegged. The government should strive to reduce inflation to make exports more competitive. The government should also enhance supply side policies to increase long term competitiveness. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Nexus" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45079.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45079/exchange-rate-and-trade-balance-nexus/edokobi-tonna-david
This document summarizes a study that investigated the effects of capital goods imports on physical capital formation and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa countries from 1985 to 2018. The study used data from various sources and employed descriptive statistics, panel Granger causality tests, and panel co-integration as estimation techniques. The results showed that capital goods imports had a positive but small contribution to economic growth and physical capital formation. Panel Granger causality tests also found bi-directional causality between economic growth and capital goods imports, but only uni-directional causality from capital goods imports to physical capital formation. The study concludes that capital goods imports are not large enough to effectively influence growth and capital formation in sub-Saharan Africa,
Export-Oriented Industrialization (EOI): Arguments for and Against What Have ...Dr.Choen Krainara
This document discusses export-oriented industrialization (EOI) strategies adopted by developing countries. It provides background on global industrial trends, the state of industrial development in developing countries and least developed countries. It notes that while EOI helped some countries like Japan and South Korea industrialize rapidly, the impacts have been mixed in other developing nations. The document aims to analyze the arguments for and against EOI strategies, and experiences of different countries in applying these policies to promote development.
The Relation Between Exports of Main Products And Economic Growth of Key Econ...inventionjournals
This paper clarifies the literature of key product export growth and regional economic growth. The paper analyses impacts of key product export on regional economic growth and vice versa. The paper provides recent empirical evidence of the relation. Besides an evaluation of the recent relation between export growth and economic growth in Viet Nam, the paper assesses the relation between key product export and economic growth during 1996-2012 period based on quantitative and qualitative approaches. With constructed models, the paper examines the relation between key product export and economic growth and concludes that it is positive. The research findings show that key product export in every economic region contributes positively to regional economic growth although it varies in different regions. Based on existing literature and empirical analysis, the paper provides a number of strategies to improve key product export contribution to key economic regions in the most effective manner and vice versa. The paper creates a fundament for researchers and policy makers both regionally and nationally in order for developing effective orientations, policies and measures for promoting export and sustainable eoconomic development.
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for UgandaPremier Publishers
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Uganda analyzes the long-run relationship between trade and economic growth in Uganda from 1982 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results show that in the short-run, imports reduced economic growth while exports increased it. However, in the long-run, inflation reduced economic growth. Unit root tests confirmed the variables were integrated of order one (I(1)), allowing for cointegration tests which found a long-run relationship between the variables.
Post Deregulation Evaluation of Non-Oil Export and Economic Growth Nexus in N...iosrjce
The impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria has been one of the most debated issues
in recent years. This study examines the role of non-oil export on economic growth since deregulation between
1986 when deregulation took effect and 2012 which previous studies might have ignored. In achieving the
objectives of the study, Ordinary Least Square Methods was employed. The study reveals that the impact of nonoil
export on the economic growth was significant and positive as a unit increase in non-oil export impacted
positively by 43% on the productive capacity of goods and services in Nigeria during the period. This is evident
in the study that the contribution of non-oil sector during the period in Nigeria has improved above the results
of other studies carried out from the pre-deregulation era. The study among other things encourages the
government to further reinforce the legislative and supervisory framework of the non-oil sectors in Nigeria and
diversify the economy to ensure utmost contributions from all faces of the non-sector to economic growth of Nigeria.
The document summarizes the foreign trade of Bangladesh, including its composition, performance, trends, and policies. Some key points:
- Exports have grown faster than imports in recent decades, driven by growth in manufactured goods like garments and knitwear rather than primary commodities. However, Bangladesh still runs a large trade deficit.
- Compared to other countries, Bangladesh's export growth has exceeded world and regional averages since the 1990s, but its exports remain a small share of world and regional trade. Imports have also grown rapidly.
- Both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have increased substantially, indicating growing openness and importance of trade to the economy. However, the trade deficit remains high at
Analysis Influence Exchange Rates and Exports on Economic Growth in Indonesiaiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) discourages theoretical articles that are limited to axiomatics or that discuss minor variations of familiar models. Similarly, IOSR-JEF has little interest in empirical papers that do not explain the model's theoretical foundations or that exhausts themselves in applying a new or established technique (such as cointegration) to another data set without providing very good reasons why this research is important.
Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in NigeriaYogeshIJTSRD
Nigeria apex bank Central Bank of Nigeria CBN has continued to battle with the job of reviving the ailing economy and putting it on the path of growth. The economy has witnessed unprecedented job loss, rising poverty level, accelerating inflation, sluggish economic growth and disequilibrium in the balance of trade. The study therefore examine the effect of monetary policy on trade balance in Nigeria. Specifically the study ascertained the extent to which inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria using an econometric regression model of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . From the result of the OLS, it is observed that monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate have a significant positive impact on foreign trade in Nigeria. This means that increases in monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate, will lead to increase in foreign trade in Nigeria. On the other, inflation rate and interest rate has a significant negative impact on foreign trade in Nigeria, meaning that as inflation rate and interest rate increases, will be bring about a decline in foreign trade in Nigeria. Based on the findings of this study, the study recommends that the government should employ a contractionary monetary policy to fight inflation by reducing the money supply in the country through decreased bond price. inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria. The government should intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to build reserves for themselves or provide them to the bank to help stabilize the exchange rate. The government should strive to improve trade performance in the short and long run. They should also reduce government spending and tax capital inflow. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45080.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45080/monetary-policy-and-trade-balance-in-nigeria/edokobi-tonna-david
structural transformation in Ethiopia: Enhancing the transition from Agrarian...frankbill
This document discusses Ethiopia's development strategies and structural transformation. It provides background on Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI), Ethiopia's initial strategy to achieve growth through agricultural transformation. While ADLI has helped reduce poverty and increase growth, the industrial sector share remains low. The document argues for a policy transition from ADLI to industrialization-led development to accelerate structural change and establish industry as an economic leader. It examines the experiences of East Asian countries and conditions needed to promote industrialization.
Trade barriers and its effect in Bangladesh economy.Fardeen Ahmed
In this research project I did primary and secondary research to find out the effect of trade barriers( recent increase in tariff, quota) in Bangladesh.
Import Substitution in India: Issues, Challenges and PromotionAakriti Agarwal
This document provides an overview of import substitution in India. It discusses India's economic situation in the pre-liberalization and post-liberalization eras, including factors that led to India's balance of payments crisis in 1991. It then defines import substitution industrialization and explains how India has extensively launched its Make in India program to reduce imports and promote domestic production. The document goes on to analyze opportunities for import substitution in India's top four import commodities: oil, gold, electronics, and machinery.
The document discusses several theories of international trade:
1. Mercantilism held that a nation's wealth depended on accumulating gold and silver through trade surpluses. It advocated subsidies for exports and tariffs/quotas on imports.
2. Adam Smith's absolute advantage theory argued that countries should specialize in goods they produce most efficiently and trade for other goods. Both countries can benefit through specialization and trade.
3. David Ricardo's comparative advantage theory extended this, showing that trade can benefit both sides even if one country is more efficient overall. Countries should import goods they have a comparative - not absolute - disadvantage in.
4. Later theories examined factors like differences in factor endowments
Mercantilism encouraged exports and discouraged imports to accumulate wealth, usually in gold and silver. Adam Smith argued that free trade and specializing in absolute advantages benefits countries more. Comparative advantage theory extended this by showing even without absolute advantages, all countries gain from trade. Porter's diamond model explains how national competitive advantages arise from factor conditions, demand conditions, related/supporting industries, and firm strategy/rivalry within a country.
Effecto exchange rate fluctuations on manufacturing sector in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1985 to 2010. It uses variables like manufacturing GDP, foreign investment, employment, and exchange rates. The study found that exchange rates and foreign investment have a positive impact on manufacturing GDP. It recommends that the government promote export diversification, restrict imports of goods also made in Nigeria, and maintain a stable exchange rate to improve the manufacturing sector performance. The paper provides context on Nigeria's fluctuating exchange rates over time and reviews several other studies that also found exchange rates influence economic growth and agricultural exports.
This document discusses exports, imports, and economic growth in India based on a study conducted by Dr. K. Sathiya. It summarizes the literature on export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses and examines the causal relationship between exports, imports, and GDP in India from 1951/52 to 2003/2004. The results show that exports and imports individually and jointly Granger-cause GDP, supporting export-led growth and import-led growth. There is also some evidence that GDP jointly Granger-causes imports and exports. The findings imply that both exports and imports have positively impacted India's economic growth.
Agricultural Export, Oil Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Multivariate ...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
Abstract—Sustaining of nation’s economic growth for better footing and outlook is very crucial for the globe of recent, most especially for developing countries like Nigeria. The country as a vivid example of a developing nation is oil based economy, which adopts export promotion policy as the essentialtactic for growth. Yet the nation has not maximized her abundance of resources to aids growth, despite notable economic growth being experienced. In this view, there is an attempt to examine the relationship among agricultural export, oil export and output growth in Nigeria. The causal relationship among the variables was investigated by using times series data for the period between 1981 and 2014. All the macroeconomic variables were found to be stationary. The study revealed that there is significant relationship between economic growth and the agricultural export and oil export. Based on the findings, government of the country is being advised to initiate new and re-defined old policies that will diversify the export base. Likewise, policies that will improveand aid the nation’s domestic production is being encouraged, since long run relationship has been established among the macroeconomic variables.
Trade Liberalization and Trade Flows in Nigeria An Aggregated Analysisijtsrd
This study examines the impact of trade liberalization and trade flows in Nigeria using an econometric regression model of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . From the result of the OLS, it is observed that trade flows and export subsidies have a positive relationship with economic growth. This means that when trade flows and export subsidies are increasing, it will bring about more growth in Nigerian economy. On the other hand, import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes have a negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This means that if import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes are falling, there will be increase in economic growth. From the empirical work reviewed, some authors argued that trade liberalization and trade flows is positively related to economic growth while some authors argued that it is negatively related. The findings of the study also show that trade flows, import tariffs, import quotas and export taxes are statistically significant in explaining the Nigerian economy while export subsidy is statistically insignificant. The study therefore recommends that government should encourage import liberalization through reduction in tariff rates, gradual removal of Non-Tariff Barriers NTB , outright banning of certain goods which will ensure that our imports, following trade liberalization, is directed mainly on intermediate and capital goods. Imports of consumables would be brought to nil and therefore there would be a corresponding increase in the production of competitive import. Finally, the government should vigorously seek to improve the international stand of the economy with other economies of the world so as to enlarge the market for Nigerian exports. It should also re-orient its policy towards the external sector and ensure that the sector contribute optimally to output growth. Anionwu, Carol "Trade Liberalization and Trade Flows in Nigeria: An Aggregated Analysis" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-2 | Issue-6 , October 2018, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd18911.pdf
foreign trade as an engine of economic growthMitikaAnjel
Foreign trade acts as an "engine" of economic growth in three key ways: 1) It enlarges a country's market for exports, leading to greater production and utilization of resources; 2) Expanding exports provides more employment opportunities and economies of scale, lowering costs; 3) Access to global markets encourages innovation as businesses compete with international counterparts, improving efficiency and productivity. For example, the opening of the Suez Canal increased India's exports of commercial crops like cotton and tea, fueling economic growth. Export processing zones also create jobs and incomes, stimulating demand and further domestic manufacturing. Overall, specialization, competition and technological adoption spurred by foreign trade can power economic expansion.
Import, Export and Economic Growth: the Case of Lower Income CountryIOSRJBM
Bangladesh is now considered as a lower middle-incomecountry by the blessing of international trade.Therefore, Bangladesh needs to take an effective policymaking decision in terms of international trade fortheirfurther development. Hence it is important to check whether Bangladesh needs more import or export for its further development. As a result, current research tries to see the relationship between import and GDP growth of Bangladesh by taking 32 years (1981-1992) of time series data.Relevant data were collected from the Bangladesh Bank website and World Bank Database. From the analysis, theresearcherconcludes that import is negatively related with GPD growth as well as GDP growth rate is also negatively related with Import.
A survey of foreign exchange rate determinants in nigeriaAlexander Decker
The document presents a study that investigates factors that determine foreign exchange rates in Nigeria over the period 1960-2011. Regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the foreign exchange rate and several independent macroeconomic variables including GDP, balance of payments, external reserves, inflation, deposit rates, and lending rates. The results of the regression showed no statistically significant relationship between the foreign exchange rate and any of the independent variables over the time period analyzed.
11.[27 40]the impact of macroeconomic variables on non-oil exports performanc...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, interest rate, government capital expenditure, government recurrent expenditure) on non-oil exports, the agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, and GDP in Nigeria from 1986-2010. The study used ordinary least squares regression and cointegration analysis. The results showed that exchange rate, government capital expenditure, and government recurrent expenditure were positively related to non-oil exports, agriculture, manufacturing, and GDP, while interest rate was negatively related. Based on these findings, the study recommends increasing investment in non-oil exports, agriculture, and manufacturing, as well as decreasing interest rates and increasing government expenditures.
Extant literature revealed that international trade plays a key role to address the economic phenomena and can help to earn foreign exchange. Despite the accruable benefits from international trade and the countrys huge oil export that account for about 90 of its foreign exchange earnings, Nigerias trade balance and exchange rate remain unfavourable. The persistent rise in Nigerias exchange rate and unfavourable trade balance in recent time warrants an empirical probe. This study therefore examines the effect of exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income, consumption expenditure, money supply and interest rate on trade balance using a secondary time series data covering a period of thirty years from 1991 2020. The study employed a regression technique of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . All data used were secondary data obtained from the statistical bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria CBN and National Bureau of Statistics NBS annual publications. After determining stationarity of the study variables using the ADF Statistic, it was discovered that the variables were all integrated at level, first and second difference, and found out to be stationary at their first difference. The study also using Johansen Cointegration Test, found that there is a long run relationship between the variables. Hence, the implication of this result is that there is a long run relationship between trade balance and other variables used in the model. From the result of the OLS, it is observed that exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income and money supply have a positive and significant impact on trade balance in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should fixed or peg on the exchange rate through the central bank. This will enable the government to buy and sell its own currency against the currency to which it is pegged. The government should strive to reduce inflation to make exports more competitive. The government should also enhance supply side policies to increase long term competitiveness. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Nexus" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45079.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45079/exchange-rate-and-trade-balance-nexus/edokobi-tonna-david
This document summarizes a study that investigated the effects of capital goods imports on physical capital formation and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa countries from 1985 to 2018. The study used data from various sources and employed descriptive statistics, panel Granger causality tests, and panel co-integration as estimation techniques. The results showed that capital goods imports had a positive but small contribution to economic growth and physical capital formation. Panel Granger causality tests also found bi-directional causality between economic growth and capital goods imports, but only uni-directional causality from capital goods imports to physical capital formation. The study concludes that capital goods imports are not large enough to effectively influence growth and capital formation in sub-Saharan Africa,
Export-Oriented Industrialization (EOI): Arguments for and Against What Have ...Dr.Choen Krainara
This document discusses export-oriented industrialization (EOI) strategies adopted by developing countries. It provides background on global industrial trends, the state of industrial development in developing countries and least developed countries. It notes that while EOI helped some countries like Japan and South Korea industrialize rapidly, the impacts have been mixed in other developing nations. The document aims to analyze the arguments for and against EOI strategies, and experiences of different countries in applying these policies to promote development.
The Relation Between Exports of Main Products And Economic Growth of Key Econ...inventionjournals
This paper clarifies the literature of key product export growth and regional economic growth. The paper analyses impacts of key product export on regional economic growth and vice versa. The paper provides recent empirical evidence of the relation. Besides an evaluation of the recent relation between export growth and economic growth in Viet Nam, the paper assesses the relation between key product export and economic growth during 1996-2012 period based on quantitative and qualitative approaches. With constructed models, the paper examines the relation between key product export and economic growth and concludes that it is positive. The research findings show that key product export in every economic region contributes positively to regional economic growth although it varies in different regions. Based on existing literature and empirical analysis, the paper provides a number of strategies to improve key product export contribution to key economic regions in the most effective manner and vice versa. The paper creates a fundament for researchers and policy makers both regionally and nationally in order for developing effective orientations, policies and measures for promoting export and sustainable eoconomic development.
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for UgandaPremier Publishers
International Trade and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Uganda analyzes the long-run relationship between trade and economic growth in Uganda from 1982 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results show that in the short-run, imports reduced economic growth while exports increased it. However, in the long-run, inflation reduced economic growth. Unit root tests confirmed the variables were integrated of order one (I(1)), allowing for cointegration tests which found a long-run relationship between the variables.
Post Deregulation Evaluation of Non-Oil Export and Economic Growth Nexus in N...iosrjce
The impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria has been one of the most debated issues
in recent years. This study examines the role of non-oil export on economic growth since deregulation between
1986 when deregulation took effect and 2012 which previous studies might have ignored. In achieving the
objectives of the study, Ordinary Least Square Methods was employed. The study reveals that the impact of nonoil
export on the economic growth was significant and positive as a unit increase in non-oil export impacted
positively by 43% on the productive capacity of goods and services in Nigeria during the period. This is evident
in the study that the contribution of non-oil sector during the period in Nigeria has improved above the results
of other studies carried out from the pre-deregulation era. The study among other things encourages the
government to further reinforce the legislative and supervisory framework of the non-oil sectors in Nigeria and
diversify the economy to ensure utmost contributions from all faces of the non-sector to economic growth of Nigeria.
The document summarizes the foreign trade of Bangladesh, including its composition, performance, trends, and policies. Some key points:
- Exports have grown faster than imports in recent decades, driven by growth in manufactured goods like garments and knitwear rather than primary commodities. However, Bangladesh still runs a large trade deficit.
- Compared to other countries, Bangladesh's export growth has exceeded world and regional averages since the 1990s, but its exports remain a small share of world and regional trade. Imports have also grown rapidly.
- Both exports and imports as a percentage of GDP have increased substantially, indicating growing openness and importance of trade to the economy. However, the trade deficit remains high at
Analysis Influence Exchange Rates and Exports on Economic Growth in Indonesiaiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) discourages theoretical articles that are limited to axiomatics or that discuss minor variations of familiar models. Similarly, IOSR-JEF has little interest in empirical papers that do not explain the model's theoretical foundations or that exhausts themselves in applying a new or established technique (such as cointegration) to another data set without providing very good reasons why this research is important.
Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in NigeriaYogeshIJTSRD
Nigeria apex bank Central Bank of Nigeria CBN has continued to battle with the job of reviving the ailing economy and putting it on the path of growth. The economy has witnessed unprecedented job loss, rising poverty level, accelerating inflation, sluggish economic growth and disequilibrium in the balance of trade. The study therefore examine the effect of monetary policy on trade balance in Nigeria. Specifically the study ascertained the extent to which inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria using an econometric regression model of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . From the result of the OLS, it is observed that monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate have a significant positive impact on foreign trade in Nigeria. This means that increases in monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate, will lead to increase in foreign trade in Nigeria. On the other, inflation rate and interest rate has a significant negative impact on foreign trade in Nigeria, meaning that as inflation rate and interest rate increases, will be bring about a decline in foreign trade in Nigeria. Based on the findings of this study, the study recommends that the government should employ a contractionary monetary policy to fight inflation by reducing the money supply in the country through decreased bond price. inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria. The government should intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to build reserves for themselves or provide them to the bank to help stabilize the exchange rate. The government should strive to improve trade performance in the short and long run. They should also reduce government spending and tax capital inflow. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45080.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45080/monetary-policy-and-trade-balance-in-nigeria/edokobi-tonna-david
structural transformation in Ethiopia: Enhancing the transition from Agrarian...frankbill
This document discusses Ethiopia's development strategies and structural transformation. It provides background on Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI), Ethiopia's initial strategy to achieve growth through agricultural transformation. While ADLI has helped reduce poverty and increase growth, the industrial sector share remains low. The document argues for a policy transition from ADLI to industrialization-led development to accelerate structural change and establish industry as an economic leader. It examines the experiences of East Asian countries and conditions needed to promote industrialization.
Trade barriers and its effect in Bangladesh economy.Fardeen Ahmed
In this research project I did primary and secondary research to find out the effect of trade barriers( recent increase in tariff, quota) in Bangladesh.
Import Substitution in India: Issues, Challenges and PromotionAakriti Agarwal
This document provides an overview of import substitution in India. It discusses India's economic situation in the pre-liberalization and post-liberalization eras, including factors that led to India's balance of payments crisis in 1991. It then defines import substitution industrialization and explains how India has extensively launched its Make in India program to reduce imports and promote domestic production. The document goes on to analyze opportunities for import substitution in India's top four import commodities: oil, gold, electronics, and machinery.
The document discusses several theories of international trade:
1. Mercantilism held that a nation's wealth depended on accumulating gold and silver through trade surpluses. It advocated subsidies for exports and tariffs/quotas on imports.
2. Adam Smith's absolute advantage theory argued that countries should specialize in goods they produce most efficiently and trade for other goods. Both countries can benefit through specialization and trade.
3. David Ricardo's comparative advantage theory extended this, showing that trade can benefit both sides even if one country is more efficient overall. Countries should import goods they have a comparative - not absolute - disadvantage in.
4. Later theories examined factors like differences in factor endowments
Mercantilism encouraged exports and discouraged imports to accumulate wealth, usually in gold and silver. Adam Smith argued that free trade and specializing in absolute advantages benefits countries more. Comparative advantage theory extended this by showing even without absolute advantages, all countries gain from trade. Porter's diamond model explains how national competitive advantages arise from factor conditions, demand conditions, related/supporting industries, and firm strategy/rivalry within a country.
This document proposes an online system for APMC (Agriculture Product Marketing Committees) to digitize their processes. Currently, all documentation and reporting is done manually, which is difficult to store, access and analyze. The proposed system would allow farmers and merchants to complete the entire APMC transaction process digitally. This includes farmer registration, product verification, auction bidding, billing, payment processing and exit procedures. The system would make it easier for APMC administrators to generate reports, store transaction data and make data-driven decisions.
Comparative evaluation of participants satisfaction & perception in castor tr...HItesh Karkar
The document is a project report submitted to the Institute of Agribusiness Management in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a Master's degree in Agribusiness Management. It evaluates farmers' satisfaction and perception of castor trading on the National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) platform compared to the traditional Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) system. The report includes chapters on the industry and company profiles, objectives of the study, research methodology, data analysis and findings. It analyzes survey data collected from farmers on their awareness and experience of NSEL and identifies areas for improvement in NSEL's system based on farmer feedback.
The Calculation of Optimal Osmotic Dehydration Process Parameters for Mushroo...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
Abstract— The Firefly Algorithm (FA) is employed to determine the optimal parameter settings in a case study of the osmotic dehydration process of mushrooms. In the case, the functional form of the dehydration model is established through a response surface technique and the resulting mathematical programming is formulated as a non-linear goal programming model. For optimization purposes, a computationally efficient, FA-driven method is used and the resulting optimal process parameters are shown to be superior to those from previous approaches.
The document presents a proposal for an integrated cow-based project in rural areas to generate sustainable income and employment. The key aspects of the project include:
1) Establishing small dairy farms (10 cows each) in villages managed by marginalized groups to produce cow milk and products.
2) Generating biogas from cow dung for cooking, lighting, and electricity, achieving more self-sufficient energy.
3) Using biogas byproducts and cow urine to promote organic farming and cultivation of medicinal plants for local healthcare.
The project aims to create employment through backward and forward linkages in rural industries based on cow resources, improving livelihoods and reducing poverty and migration to cities.
The impact of government agricultural expenditure on economic growth in zimbabweAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated the impact of government agricultural expenditure on economic growth in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2009. The study employed a log linear regression model with gross domestic product as the dependent variable and factors such as government expenditure on agriculture, investment, and consumption as explanatory variables. The regression analysis found that increased spending on agricultural research and development can improve economic growth. However, insufficient government expenditure on agricultural extension and credit assistance adversely affected economic growth in Zimbabwe. The results provide evidence that agriculture is an engine of economic growth in the country.
This document summarizes an economic report analyzing the relationship between economic growth and inequality in 73 countries from 1993-2013. Two regression models were used to examine the impact of various economic variables on the rate of economic growth. The first model found a positive relationship between internal direct investment and growth. The second model found positive relationships between gross capital formation and growth. Both models found negative relationships between the GINI index, government debt, and GDP per capita with economic growth. The analysis aims to better understand how inequality impacts economic growth.
This document provides an overview of the forms and processes used at an APMC (Agriculture Product Marketing Committee). It describes several key forms including the entry gate pass for farmers, a registration log to record farmer details, a verification form to count product quantities, and an auction register to record bidding. It also outlines the billing process where three copies of sale receipts are generated for the farmer, agent, and APMC. Finally, it reviews the various roles within the APMC organization and summarizes the general process a farmer undergoes to sell their products through the APMC system.
Analysis of the effects of capital flight on economic growth evidence from ni...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the effects of capital flight on economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2011. It finds that large capital outflows from Nigeria are due to political instability, high fiscal deficits, high interest rates, and high external debt servicing costs. It recommends policies to alleviate capital flight such as good governance, fiscal discipline, and enacting laws to encourage repatriation of illegally moved funds for investment in Nigeria's real economy.
The APMC provides agricultural services and operates the main agricultural market in Amreli, India. It was established in 1952 and has since grown significantly, recently obtaining ISO 9001-2000 certification. The document discusses the APMC's history, operations, achievements, and financial details.
Tax policy, inflation and unemployment in nigeria (1970 – 2008)Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study examining Nigeria's use of tax policy from 1970 to 2008 to influence macroeconomic indicators like inflation and unemployment. Statistical analysis found that inflation and unemployment rates did not significantly respond to tax policy changes during this period. Periods of lower taxes saw both higher and lower inflation in some years, and unemployment increased steadily in some years regardless of whether taxes were raised or lowered. The inconsistent use of tax measures meant they were not effective at controlling inflation or unemployment. The document reviews economic theory on taxation as a tool for macroeconomic management and outlines Nigeria's various tax policy changes over this period.
Led by Mrs Uju A. Hassan Baba, Nigerian government officials presented the draft investment policy review to OECD committee delegates in December 2013.
Visit: http://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/investment-policy/nigeria-investment-policy.htm
The document outlines Saudi Arabia's strategy for economic diversification beyond oil. It discusses:
1) Saudi Arabia's history of diversification efforts in infrastructure, education, and privatization.
2) Opportunities in organic chemicals, oil-related engineering products, and pharmaceuticals due to growing demand, export potential, and regional markets.
3) The strategy to diversify by creating empowered industrial zones led by ministries to coordinate capabilities development through vocational schools, foreign partnerships, and Saudi business involvement from deal-making to implementation.
International Retail Structure of Ferragamo S.P.AKübra Bayram
Salvatore Ferragamo Group S.P.A. is a significant retail based company in luxury goods market worldwide from 1927 year until now. The purpose of this project is analysing of the company strategies by focusing on the company’s retail structure. The project framework is consists of the strategic analysis of the company which is included its target markets, socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle, values and consumer
purchasing behavior, defining brand identity of the company within the framework of Kapferer’s Brand Identity Analysis, explaining marketing mix strategy of the company by
focusing on its distribution channel and retail structure, discussing of the company’s market positioning map by comparing its competitors and finally explaining of the company’s experiential marketing strategy into the framework of Scmmitt’s Experiential Analysis. In the project, we applied qualitative research methods during the data collection process
which is included primarily data collection, it is consists of interviews and observations, secondly data collection is consists of literatures, articles and internet searches.
Waterfront Development Principles - TU Delft Thesis 2011Nicholas Socrates
This document provides details about Nicholas Orthodox Socrates' architectural history thesis focusing on key factors and guiding principles for major waterfront development in relation to ports and harbors. It includes two case studies, the first on Barcelona's ports and harbors. It provides background on Barcelona and the history of its development, known as the "Barcelona Model". It then examines the history and operations of Barcelona's ports, including cargo terminals, cruise ship terminals, and services. It discusses guiding principles for port master planning and development. A key part of the case study is an in-depth examination of Port Vell in Barcelona, its services and importance in relation to the city and tourism. The document concludes by comparing the Barcelona Model to other
Our project team prepared this slide deck to support presentation of our research results for the Managerial Economics course at UT Arlington Graduate School.
We performed a minor research project to determine whether there was a correlation between joining WTO and improved GDP growth over a 10-year period.
In this presentation, we will discuss about how or what conditions trigger international trade, which are further elaborated through various theories of international trade.
To know more about Welingkar School’s Distance Learning Program and courses offered, visit: http://www.welingkaronline.org/distance-learning/online-mba.html
impact of trade policy of Pakistan on imports and exports of PakistanNouman Rafique
The document discusses Pakistan's trade policy and its impact on imports and exports. It provides background on what trade policy is, who formulates Pakistan's policy, and its key purposes. The 2009-2012 Strategic Trade Policy Framework's goals are outlined, including export targets and funding. Key features of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 policies are highlighted. Major imports and exports are listed, and quarterly trade data from 2011 is presented showing totals and balances.
impact of trade policy of Pakistan on imports and exports of Pakistan
Similar to Impact of exports on economic growth of ecowas countries a comparative analysisimpact of exports on economic growth of ecowas countries a comparative analysis
Pattern and Determinants of Export Diversification in BangladeshMd. Moulude Hossain
This paper analyzes the pattern and the main determinants of
export diversification in Bangladesh. A large data set of Bangladesh export during the period of 1980-81 to 2006-07 has been used for this purpose. Three main indexes have been used to explore the trend of export concentration and these three indicators of export diversification were calculated to determine the trend of export from Bangladesh. The
Hirschman Index, the Ogive Index and the Entropy Coefficient were used to analyze the diversification pattern of export from Bangladesh. From the analyses, robust evidence has been found across the specifications and indicators that the export basket of Bangladesh has continued to remain relatively undiversified and the country has not been able to translate its
comparative advantage into competitive advantage. Further, this study reveals that the export growth and overall economic growth are highly correlated and a robust restructuring in trade policy is needed for gaining momentum in diversification of export in Bangladesh. The analyses show that exports at the intensive margin account for the most important share of
overall trade growth. At the extensive margin, geographic diversification is more important than product diversification, especially for developing countries. Taking part in free trade agreements, thereby reducing trade barrier and costs, development of infrastructure and communication, extensive financing for export and policies emphasizing the development of human capital is now the need of time for improving diversification of export.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF EXPORT AND IMPORT DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN INDIAN E...chelliah paramasivan
International trade is a major concept welfare of labour intensive, capital, investment and technology resources promote marketing background throughout world. International trade exchanges of goods and services between countries developing economy inflation. International trade is exchanges of capital good and consumed product transfer across the international borders or territiores. International trade is lockdown period faliure of commercial activities not supply of home appliance products, natural resources during COVID-19 pandemic in Indian economy. Government of India not finalised the export and import extend the marketing network, working capital and reduction of economy growth rate. This paper highlighted is international trade of export and import during COVID-19 pademic in Indian economy.
This document summarizes a research paper that analyzes the effects of international trade on economic growth in China. It begins with an overview of China's rapid economic growth and integration into the global economy. It then reviews literature showing that international trade can positively impact productivity and growth. The paper aims to examine these effects in China through econometric and non-parametric analysis of panel data from 2002-2007. It finds that increasing trade volume and high-tech exports led to productivity gains across Chinese regions, with eastern regions developing most due to greater trade participation.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Nigeria china trade relations implication on the nigerian domestic economyAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research study on the trade relations between Nigeria and China and its implications for Nigeria's domestic economy. The following key points are made:
1) Trade between Nigeria and China has increased significantly in recent decades, reaching $7.7 billion in 2010, however China exports more to Nigeria than it imports, resulting in a trade imbalance.
2) Nigerian manufacturers and entrepreneurs perceive that the influx of cheap Chinese imports is negatively impacting the competitiveness of domestic industry due to issues like substandard goods and lack of access to credit and stable electricity.
3) For Nigeria to better leverage its relationship with China and grow its domestic economy, the study recommends that the Nigerian government encourage more direct
This document is a project report on globalization in India submitted by a student. It includes a certificate verifying the work, acknowledgements, table of contents, abstract, and sections on the introduction of economic reforms in India, strategies initiated, the process of globalization in India, and objectives of the study. The report provides an overview of India's economic liberalization and opening to globalization in the 1990s, the key policy changes introduced, and analyzes the impact and implications of globalization on the Indian economy.
This paper applies the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) technique to annual data from 1980 to 2013 to provide empirical evidence on the long-run relationship between export trade and economic growth in Malawi. The export trade in this study is disaggregated into services and goods exports. Thus, the paper estimated two models. The first model deals with the relationship between export of services and growth, and the other one determines the relationship between goods export and growth. While the paper finds no evidence for long-run relationship between export of services and goods on economic growth, the empirical results suggest existence of a short-run nexus between export of goods and economic growth in Malawi. The Granger causality test results have also confirmed existence of a unidirectional causality from goods exports to economic growth and another unidirectional causality from goods exports to service exports.
This paper applies the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) technique to annual data from 1980 to 2013 to provide empirical evidence on the long-run relationship between export trade and economic growth in Malawi. The export trade in this study is disaggregated into services and goods exports. Thus, the paper estimated two models. The first model deals with the relationship between export of services and growth, and the other one determines the relationship between goods export and growth. While the paper finds no evidence for long-run relationship between export of services and goods on economic growth, the empirical results suggest existence of a short-run nexus between export of goods and economic growth in Malawi. The Granger causality test results have also confirmed existence of a unidirectional causality from goods exports to economic growth and another unidirectional causality from goods exports to service exports.
External Trade Benefits and Poverty Reduction in English Speaking West Africa...iosrjce
This research examines the impact of external trade benefits on poverty reduction in five English
Speaking West African Countries (ESWACs) from 1980 to 2013. These countries include; The Gambia, Ghana,
Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone). The study expressed external trade benefits (ETB) as increase in export
earnings (EXE), trade openness (TOP), total government expenditure (TGE) and reduction in foreign exchange
rate (FER), while poverty level is expressed as real gross domestic income (GNI) per capita current US Dollar.
Theoretically, the study relied on five trade theories, in practice; the study constructs a balanced panel data
structure (BPDS) and methodologically, departs from the classical OLS and 1st generation panel econometric
techniques to adopting recently developed 2nd generation panel data econometric methods. The results of the
study reveal that external trade benefits were not found to be significant enough to reduce the poverty level in
ESWACs from 1980 to 2013.This impliesthat external trade benefits did not significantly increase GNI per
capita in ESWACs within the period of study. Based on this result, the study therefore concluded that the impact
of external trade benefits on poverty level is a trivial matter because external trade benefits have not
comprehensively and significantly augmented the status of real gross domestic income (GNI) percapital
currentUSDollar of English speaking West African countries within the period of study. Following this
conclusion we recommended, among others, that policy implication on the result of co-integration of the panel
equation 2 is that more credible expansionary fiscal policy should be pursued as this will help to pump more
money into circulation with the aim of creating and expanding employment opportunities that would be able to
reduce poverty in the region and cut in public investment spending on agriculture and industrial sectors should
be avoided so that the countries will be encouraged to produce locally and also export.
Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria (1977-2008) OLADAPO TOLU...dapoace
This document contains a literature review on foreign direct investment (FDI). It begins by defining FDI and discussing how FDI flows are compiled. It then reviews several theories on the determinants and impacts of FDI. Market size, trade openness, macroeconomic stability, and infrastructure development are identified as important determinants of FDI inflows. The literature suggests that while FDI can benefit economic growth, developing effective policies is important to maximize benefits and minimize risks for host countries like Nigeria.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the ICC Open Markets Index (OMI) 2013. The OMI measures the openness of 75 economies across 4 components: observed openness to trade, trade policy, foreign direct investment openness, and infrastructure for trade. It finds that while governments have pledged to keep markets open, protectionism has increased since the 2008 financial crisis. The OMI aims to evaluate countries' performance on openness indicators and identify areas for improvement, in order to encourage open trade policies and monitor progress over time. The report discusses the methodology used to construct the index and analyze results, finding that some countries have more open markets than others and outlining categories of openness performance.
The document summarizes Bangladesh's national budget for the 2016-17 fiscal year. Key points include:
- The total budget was Tk 3.41 trillion (equivalent to 17.37% of GDP)
- Tk 1.17 trillion was allocated for development expenditures including the Annual Development Programme
- Non-development expenditures were set at Tk 2.16 trillion, a 32% increase over the previous year
- Revenue collection was projected to be Tk 2.43 trillion, with the highest amounts coming from Value Added Tax and income/corporate taxes
- The budget projected a deficit of Tk 978.53 billion, representing less than 5% of GDP
Economics - Trend in India's Trade Policieschintankanabar
This document is a project report submitted by a student for a Master's program. It includes sections like the title page, declaration, certificate, index, acknowledgements, introduction, observations, suggestions, scope and limitations, and details on the Indian economy and trade policy. The report analyzes trends in India's trade policy and aims to promote exports while regulating imports to support economic growth and reduce trade deficits. It discusses India's shift from import substitution to a more open trade stance after the 1990s reforms.
- The document analyzes the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Cape Verde from 1985 to 2018 using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.
- It finds a long-run relationship between FDI, labor force, inflation and GDP growth in Cape Verde. However, it finds that FDI does not "Granger cause" economic growth.
- Factors like openness and domestic investment were not found to have a long-term relationship with GDP in Cape Verde's economy.
To what extent foreign direct investment (fdi) affect in economic development...Alexander Decker
This document discusses research on the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on Pakistan's economic growth from 1975 to 2010. It finds that FDI has had a positive effect on economic growth in both the short and long run. The document reviews previous literature on the relationship between FDI and economic growth. It then describes the methodology used in the study, which analyzes the impact of FDI, reserves, inflation, and gross domestic savings on GDP. The results show that all variables are positively correlated with FDI and statistically significant. The conclusion is that FDI contributes to Pakistan's economic growth.
Comparative Longitudinal Analysis on Global Inflation with a special emphasis...Ram Sharma
https://zenodo.org/record/7939068#.ZGQTS_dX6Ef
This is the presentation for the research “Comparative Longitudinal Analysis on Global Inflation with a special emphasis on Indian Economy” presented at the Second International Conference at the Daly College of Business Management, DAVV Indore.
The research was further published in its peer to peer reviewed conference journal.
The economic fluctuations in Indian housing markets have been time and again proved to be led by inflation (Granger Cause) (Richa Pandey & V. Mary Jessica, 2020).
The purpose of this study is to perform a comparative longitudinal analysis on Global Inflation with a special emphasis on Indian Economy.
The study aims to observe the positive cause-effect relationship between the rise of money supply and circulation in the economy and the succeeding rise in housing prices.
As Gregory Wolfe theorised, “The inflation of our time is intimately connected with some of its most obdurate ideas, forces, postulates, and institutions and can be overcome only by influencing these profound causes and conditions. It is not just a disorder of the monetary system which can be left to financial experts to redress, it is a moral disease, a disorder of society. This inflation, too, belongs to the things which can be understood and remedied only in the area beyond supply and demand.”
Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis suggests that people would change their desired consumption if changes in housing prices affect their expected lifetime wealth. Moreover, an inflationary housing market can be termed essentially, as one of the most major contributors to a nation’s overall inflation (Jared Bernstein, Ernie Tedeschi, and Sarah Robinson, 2021).
A comparative longitudinal analysis on inflation can provide significant insights into the evolution of prices over time. By comparing inflation rates across different countries, researchers can identify patterns and commonalities that can help explain the underlying causes of inflation.
Additionally, by looking at inflation over a long period of time, this research can help economists, administrators and businesses in identifying periods of high and low inflation to investigate the factors that may have contributed to these changes. In general, inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the price level of goods and services in an economy.
Over time, inflation can erode the purchasing power of a currency, as prices for goods and services rise faster than the currency’s value. There are a variety of factors that can contribute to inflation, including increases in the cost of production, changes in monetary policy, and demand-side pressures.
https://zenodo.org/record/7942937#.ZGQQyPdX6Ed
The document is a project report on the impact of economic liberalization on the Indian economy. It discusses India's pre-liberalization period of protectionism and licensing. In 1991, India faced an economic crisis and introduced reforms like opening to foreign investment and trade. This led to changes in the direction and composition of India's foreign trade, with exports and imports shifting away from developed countries. Liberalization also worsened India's net factor income from abroad, though it has been unable to significantly impact the agricultural sector.
Financial development, trade openness and economic growth evidence from sulta...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a journal article that empirically investigates the relationship between financial development, trade openness, and economic growth in the Sultanate of Oman from 1972 to 2012. It finds evidence of cointegration between the three variables. Specifically, it finds unidirectional causality from economic growth to financial development, and from trade openness to the other two variables. Variance decomposition analyses show that trade openness shocks are an important source of variability for GDP and financial development in Oman.
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Impact of exports on economic growth of ecowas countries a comparative analysisimpact of exports on economic growth of ecowas countries a comparative analysis
1. A
PROJECT REPORT
ON
“IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF
ECOWAS COUNTRIES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS”
Submitted to
Punjabi University, Patiala
In partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of degree of
Master of Business Administration
By:
Kodjane Jean Michel
Univ. Roll No: 12975
Registration No: GBC (P) 2005-209
Under the guidance of:
Dr. Surendar Singh
Senior Lecturer, Deptt. Of Management
DESH BHAGAT INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AND COMPUTER SCIENCES
MANDI GOBINDGARH
2013
1
2. DECLARATION
I declare that the Project entitled “Impact Of Exports on Economic Growth of
Ecowas Countries: A Comparative Analysis” is a record of independent work carried out
by me under the supervision and guidance of Dr. Surendar Singh, Senior Lecturer. This
has not been previously submitted for the award of any other diploma, degree or other
similar title.
________________
Kodjane Jean Michel
Univ. Roll No: 12975
2
3. CERTIFICATE
Certified that the Project Report entitled “Impact of Exports on Economic Growth
of Ecowas Countries: A Comparative Analysis” submitted to the Punjabi University,
Patiala for the award of degree of Master of Business Administration is a record of
independent work carried out by Kodjane Jean Michel, under my supervision and
guidance. This has not been previously submitted for the award of any diploma, degree or
other similar title.
__________________
Dr. Surendar Singh
Senior Lecturer
Deptt. of Management
3
4. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I owe a great many thanks to a great many people who helped and supported me
during the preparation of this project report.
My deepest thanks to Dr. Surendar Singh, Senior Lecturer, Deptt. of
Management the Guide of the project for guiding and correcting various documents of
mine with attention and care. He has taken pain to go through the project and make
necessary corrections as and when needed.
I express my thanks to the Mrs. Nidhi Gupta, Director, Desh Bhagat Institute of
Management and Computer Sciences, Mandi Gobindgarh for extending her support
throughout my studies.
I would also thank my Institution and my faculty members without whom this
project would have been a distant reality.
I also extend my heartfelt thanks to my loving parents for their ever encouraging
moral support and inspiration that really kept me going.
All might not have been mentioned, but none is forgotten.
________________
Kodjane Jean Michel
Univ. Roll No: 12975
4
6. LIST OF ABREVIATION
CFA: Communauté Française d'Afrique (in French)
ECOWAS: Economic Community of West African States
ELG: Export Led Growth
ERP: Economic Recovery Programme
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
LDCs: Least Developed Countries
OLS: Ordinary Least Squares
OPEC: Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
UEMOA: Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (in French)
US: United States of America
WAEMU: West African Economic and Monetary Union
6
7. Abstract
An assessment of the role of export in economic growth is of obvious importance, it
is in this regards that the study has been conducted. This study investigates the
relationship between exports and economic growth in a group of three developing
countries selected from ECOWAS (Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria). For analysis,
secondary data for the period of 1980 to 2011 are used; the data have been collected from
World Bank databank. Simple linear regression model and ordinary least squares (OLS)
technique have been used for empirically estimation of the impacts of exports on
economic growth. During the study period, the impacts of exports on economic growth
have been found statistically significant for Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana. However, the
magnitude of impact of exports on economic growth for Nigeria has been found
comparatively highest. Thus, the outcomes of this study recommend that the policy
makers of each country incorporated in this study needs to expand level of exports in
order to improve socio-economic development.
Keywords: Exports, Economic Growth, Regression analysis, Developing countries,
ECOWAS, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria.
7
9. INTRODUCTION
Economic development is one of the main objectives of every society in the world
and economic growth is fundamental to economic development. There are many factors
affecting economic growth and export is recognised as one of the very important factors
as exports of goods and services represent one of the most important sources of foreign
exchange income that ease the pressure on the balance of payments and create
employment opportunities. It was also recognised that exports provide the economy with
foreign exchange needed for imports that cannot be produced domestically. Therefore,
management authorities and governments usually intend to encourage expansion in
exports through various incentives such as, for instance, export subsidies etc...
Nevertheless, the role of exports in the economies of developing countries has been
subject to a wide range of empirical and theoretical studies. There have been
disagreements among economists concerning the contribution of export to economic
development; this divergence of opinion goes back to the classical economic theories by
Adam Smith and David Ricardo, who argued that international trade plays an important
role in economic growth, and that there are economic gains from specialization. While
many economists view export as a powerful engine of growth, there are some very
renowned economists who highlight the deleterious effect of trade on developing
countries.
1. Statement of the problem
Trade in West Africa has gone through various phases. Before the 1960, West
African countries’ trade policy was defined by her colonial masters. Essentially, trade
was a two-way relation whereby primary commodities were exported and manufactured
products imported. Trade structure during this period was driven by the interests of the
colonial masters. The GDP growth was reasonably high during this period.
In the period from 1960 to 1980’s the trade policies were informed by the doctrine
of import substitution industrialization. During this period, an inward oriented policy
9
10. with significant trade restrictions was adopted. As a result, trade policies during this
period were characterized by extensive state involvement in the economy both in the
production and marketing. The period was characterized by trade restrictions through
tariffs and taxes that were justified on account of infant industry protection argument.
In view of the continued deterioration of West Africa’s economic performance since
1970s, an Economic Recovery Programme (ERP) was launched from 1980’s. The
objective was to achieve higher rates of economic growth by increasing the efficiency of
resource allocation, in particular by aligning domestic prices more closely with
international prices. This period marked the beginning of trade liberalization and export
promotion growth strategy.
Exports of the ECOWAS rose from US$10.4 billion in 1983 to US$29 billion in
1996 and US$36.4 billion in 2000. In the year 2005, it was US$73 billion and again rose
to US$93.6 billion in 2007. It then went up in 2011 to US$ 136.6 billion (World Bank).
At the same time, GDP seems to have increased steadily as it rose from US$57.5
billion in 1983 to US$77 billion in 1996 and US$82.2 billion in 2000. In 2005, it was
US$ 175.9 billion and rose to US$ 257.9 billion in 2007. In 2011, it went up to US$ 373
billion (World Bank).
From the above, exports and GDP appear to be moving upward together after 1983.
But is there a reason for us to believe that growth in GDP is due to growth in exports?
Again, is a positive trend in exports not due to a rise in GDP? Furthermore, is the rise in
GDP not due to other factors apart from exports? In any case, is there any link between
exports and economic growth?
To this end, an empirical assessment of the linkage between exports and economic
growth is important. However, there is no recent empirical evidence assessing the impact
of exports on economic growth.
2. Objectives of the study
Since exports of goods and services account for significant portion in African
developing countries income, the objective of this study is to examine the impact of
exports on economic growth of ECOWAS countries.
10
11. The objectives of this study are spelt out into two, i. e. general objective and
specific objectives. The general objective of this study is to examine the impact of
exports on economic growth of ECOWAS countries. While the specific objectives are:
1. To examine the relationship between exports growth and economic growth.
2. To find out if fluctuations in exports affect the economic growth of the countries in
the same manner.
3. Hypotheses of the study
This study is designed to investigate the impact of export on economic growth of
ECOWAS countries. The hypothesis is therefore postulated as follow:
Ho: There is no statistically significant relationship between exports and economic
growth of ECOWAS countries.
Hi: There is statistically significant relationship between exports and economic
growth of ECOWAS countries.
4. Methodology
In this research work, the econometric technique used is ordinary least square
(OLS) in form of simple linear regressions. The data used are purely obtained from
secondary sources, only from World Bank Databank for the time period ranging from
1980 to 2011.
5. Organisation of the study
This research work has been divided into six chapters as follows:
Chapter one which is the general introduction of the entire study comprises of the
statement of problem, objectives of the study, hypothesis of the study, methodology and
organization of the study.
Chapter two gives a detail the background information on the study which includes
the historical background of exports, its composition, and challenges faced and
performances of export sector.
11
12. Chapter three is the literature reviews, which covers conceptual, theoretical and
empirical framework.
Chapter four consists of the research methodology which shows the model
specification, sources of data, econometrics techniques and sampling techniques.
Chapter five presents the data and show the analysis and interpretation of findings
which as well as hypothesis testing and discussion of results.
Chapter six which is the last chapter deals with the summary of findings,
conclusions and recommendations.
12
14. I.
OVERVIEW OF ECOWAS
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is a regional trade
bloc created on May 28, 1975 by the Treaty of Lagos. It headquarter is located in Abuja,
Nigeria.
There are officially three co-equal languages; French, English, and Portuguese in
ECOWAS and eight Currencies; Cape Verde-Escudo, Ghana-Cedi, The Gambia-Dalasi,
Guinea Franc, Liberia Dollar, Nigeria-Naira, Sierra Leone-Leone and W. African CFA
franc.
ECOWAS aims at promoting cooperation and integration with the establishment of
a West African economic union as an ultimate goal. It is aimed at improving the living
standard of the people, ensuring economic growth and strengthening relations between
Member States. In order to achieve these goals, ECOWAS has set up a number of
structures entrusted with the preparation, implementation and evaluation of the
Community programmes and projects. ECOWAS’s mission is to promote economic
integration in "all fields of economic activity, particularly industry, transport,
telecommunications, energy, agriculture, natural resources, commerce, monetary and
financial questions, social and cultural matters."
ECOWAS is not fully a custom union but it can be fully consider as a free trade
area with free visa among members. It has 15 members: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape
Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger,
Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. With a total surface of 5.112.903 km²,
ECOWAS region population is estimate to 308,659,730 inhabitants (est. 2011) with a
dominant Nigeria economy, accounting for near about half of the population and more
than half of the regional aggregate nominal GDP which is $ 373,080,195,046 (US
Dollar). ECOWAS taken as a block stands as the 28th power of the world. It consists of
4.4% of the world population however its contribution in the world total GDP and
Import-Export is lower; with 0.53% of the world GDP, 0.6% of both world import and
export of goods and services. The most performer countries are Nigeria, Ghana followed
by Cote d’Ivoire.
14
15. ECOWAS consists broadly of two distinct zones a Sahelian zone, largely
landlocked, and a more humid, forested coastal zone. Besides, this geographic specificity,
eight ECOWAS members also belong to WAEMU (also known as UEMOA from its
name in French), a customs and monetary union (Franc CFA is used as the common
currency of WAEMU). Its exports are mostly comprised of a limited range of agricultural
commodities and somehow oil. This reliance on internationally traded commodities
leaves Ecowas countries vulnerable to the external shocks of international market price
fluctuations. Since all countries but Nigeria are net oil importers, fluctuations in oil prices
on the import side are often combined with commodity price shocks on the export side.
Manufactured exports are negligible. Intra-regional trade as a share of total trade remains
marginal, at some 10 percent reflecting the lack of complementarities of the economies.
Exports of goods and services are not so diversify in Ecowas community, therefore
Ecowas’ exports depend highly on commodities.
II.
PROFILE OF ECOWAS COUNTRIES
1. Benin
With a total area of 112,620 square kilometers, Benin has a population of 8.8
million inhabitants. Its GDP is estimated to US$ 7.3 billion divided in the following way;
Agriculture 35%, Industry 14% and Service 51%.
Benin total exports and contribute to GDP up to 15% whereas exports of
commodity account for 91% of total exports. Major items exported by Benin can be
represented in the following manner; All food items 24%, Agricultural raw materials
45%, Fuels 19% and Mining 12%. The three leading items exported are cotton 38%,
Petroleum oils or bituminous minerals 17% and fruits and nut 8%.
The biggest export partners of Benin are China 25%, India 16%, EU (27) 15%, Mali
12% and Nigeria 5%.
15
16. 2. Burkina Faso
The population of Burkina Faso is estimated to 16.4 million spread on 274,220
square kilometers. Burkina Faso GDP is around US$ 10.4 billion, composed by
Agriculture 35%, Industry 24% and Service 42%.
The country of Burkina Faso has been among the major exporters of a few
important commodities in the whole world, its exports depend on commodities at 94%.
However, exports of goods and services account to 21% of the total GDP. Major items
exported can be represented in the following manner; All food items 20%, Agricultural
raw materials 45%, and Mining 35%. The three leading commodities exported are cotton
44%, Gold, non-monetary 35% and Oil seeds and Oleaginous fruits 9 %.
The major export partners of Burkina Faso are Switzerland 24%, EU (27) 17%,
China 13%, Singapore 12% and Thailand 4%.
3. Cape Verde
Known as the island of Ecowas, the total area of Cape Verde is 4,030 square
kilometers, its population of 0.5 million inhabitants. Its GDP is estimated to US$ 1.9
billion divided in the following way; Agriculture 8%, Industry 17% and Service 74%.
Commodity exports account for 70% of its total exports but total exports contribute
to GDP up to 42%. Total exported by Benin can be represented in the following manner;
All food items 98% and Mining 1%. The three leading items exported are Fishery
products 96%, Alcoholic beverages 2% and ferrous waste, scrape; remelting ingots, iron,
steel 1%.
The major export partners of Cape Verde are EU (27) 94%, United States 1% and
Brazil 1%.
4. Cote d'Ivoire
With a total area of 322,462 square kilometers, Benin has a population of 20 million
inhabitants. Its GDP is estimated to US$ 24 billion divided in the following way;
Agriculture 26%, Industry 28% and Service 45%.
16
17. Cote d'Ivoire is the world's largest producer and exporter of cocoa beans; it
produces 30% of the world production. Similarly, it is a significant producer and exporter
of coffee and palm oil. Consequently, the economy is highly sensitive to fluctuations in
international prices for these products, and, to a lesser extent, in climatic conditions.
Cocoa, oil, rubber and coffee are the country's top export revenue earners, but the country
is also exporting gold, significant amount of crude oil (30 % of total exports), coffee,
palm oil, timber, cotton, natural rubber, fish and gold. Exports has significant
contribution in the country GDP and Commodity exports account for 85% of its total
exports whereas total exports contribute to GDP up to 44%. Items exported by Cote
d’Ivoire can be represented in the following manner; All food items 53%, Agricultural
raw materials 9%, Fuels 36% and Mining 2%. The three leading items exported are cocoa
39%, Petroleum oils or bituminous minerals 17% and bitumen materials, crude 15%.
Cote d’Ivoire’s major export partners are EU (27) 46%, United States 11%, Nigeria
7%, Ghana 5% and Canada 3%.
5. Gambia
The population of The Gambia is estimated to 1.7 million spread on 11,300 square
kilometers. The Gambia GDP is around US$ 0.9 billion, composed by Agriculture 28%,
Industry 17% and Service 54%.
The Gambia’s exports depend on commodities at 82%. However, Total exports
account to 29% of the total GDP. Items exported can be represented in the following
manner; All food items 78%, Agricultural raw materials 3%, and Mining 19%. The three
leading items exported are Fruits and nuts 42%, Vegetable fats and oil 13% and Fishery
products 8%.
The export major partners of The Gambia are India 41%, EU (27) 26%, China 10%,
Senegal 5% and Guinea 4%.
17
18. 6. Ghana
Like all the country in West Africa, export is the main source of foreign exchange
earnings. Ghana population is around 24.3 million over a total area of 238,540 square
kilometers, its GDP is US$ 39 billion divided as follow; Agriculture 36%, Industry 28%
and Service 37%.
Commodities exports account to 90% of total exports and represent 38% of GDP.
Commodities export is composed by All food items 60%, Agricultural raw materials 8%,
Fuels 4% and Mining 28%. The major exports of Ghana are listed as; Cocoa 49%, Gold
14% and Ores and concentrates of base metals 10%.
The major export partners of Ghana are EU (27) 43%, South Africa 12%, Ukraine
9%, United States 5% and India 4%.
7. Guinea
The population of Guinea is estimated to 9.9 million spread on 245,860 square
kilometers. Guinea GDP is around US$ 5 billion, composed by Agriculture 25%,
Industry 41% and Service 34%.
The country has been among the major exporters of a few important commodities in
the whole world, its exports depend on commodities at 85%. However, total exports
account to 30% of the total GDP. Items exported can be represented in the following
manner; All food items 9%, Agricultural raw materials 4%, Fuels 18% and Mining 70%.
The three leading items exported are Aluminum ores and concentrates 51%, Petroleum
oils, oils from bitumen materials, crude 17% and Gold, non-monetary 10.
The major export partners of Guinea are EU (27) 40%, India 19%, Russian
Federation 12%, United States 8% and Ukraine 5%.
8. Guinea-Bissau
With a total area of 36,130 square kilometers, Guinea-Bissau has a population of
1.5 million inhabitants. Its GDP is estimated to US$ 0.9 billion divided in the following
way; Agriculture 45%, Industry 14% and Service 42%.
18
19. Commodity exports account for 99% of its total exports whereas exports contribute
to GDP up to 18%. Items exported by Guinea-Bissau can be represented in the following
manner; All food items 92%, Agricultural raw materials 1%, Fuels 6% and Mining 1%.
The three leading items exported are Fruits and nuts 91%, Petroleum oils, oils from
bitumen materials, crude 6%, Ferrous waste, scrape; remelting ingots, iron, steel 1%.
The major export partners of Guinea-Bissau are India 89%, United States 6%,
Singapore 2%, and EU (27) 1%.
9. Liberia
The population of Liberia is estimated to 3.9 million spread on 11,300 square
kilometers. The Gambia GDP is around US$ 1.5 billion, composed by Agriculture 64%,
Industry 13% and Service 24%.
Liberia’s exports depend on commodities at 62% and total exports account to 27%
of the total GDP. Liberia’s exported items can be represented in the following manner;
All food items 3%, Agricultural raw materials 56%, Fuels 19% and Mining 22%. The
three leading items exported are Natural rubber & similar gums 54%, Gold 13%,
Petroleum oils, oils from bitumen materials, crude 10%,
The export partners of Liberia are United States 35%, EU (27) 19%, United Arab
Emirates 12%, South Africa 10% and Canada 9%.
10. Mali
With a total area of 1,240,190 square kilometers, Mali has a population of 15.3
million inhabitants. Its GDP is estimated to US$ 10.8 billion divided in the following
way; Agriculture 39%, Industry 20% and Service 40%.
Mali’s exports depend on commodities at 88%. However, total exports account to
25% of the total GDP. Items exported can be represented in the following manner; All
food items 9%, Agricultural raw materials 30%, Fuels 1% and Mining 60%. The three
leading items exported are Gold 59%, Cotton 30%, and Live animals other 4%.
The major export partners of Mali are South Africa 55%, China9%, EU (27) 6%,
Thailand 5% and Senegal 4%.
19
20. 11.Niger
Niger has a population estimated to 15.5 million inhabitants spread on 1,267,000
square kilometers. Its GDP is around US$ 6 billion, composed by Agriculture 44%,
Industry 16% and Service 40%.
Niger’s exports depend on commodities at 68%. However, total exports account to
18% of the total GDP. Items exported can be represented in the following manner; All
food items 42%, Agricultural raw materials 6%, Fuels 18% and Mining 33%. The three
leading items exported Ores and concentrates of uranium or thorium 28%, Live animals
26%, Petroleum oils or bitumen materials 11%.
The major export partners of Niger are Nigeria 33%, United States 23%, EU (27)
22%, Japan 6% and Ghana 4%.
12. Nigeria
Nigeria is a member of OPEC, with a total area of 923,770; it has a population of
160 million of inhabitants. Nigeria GDP is 243.9 Billion composed by Agriculture 37%,
Industry 34% and Service 29%.
As an OPEC member, Nigeria’s exports depend on commodities at 97%. Similarly,
its total exports account to 40% of the total GDP. Exported items can be represented in
the following manner; All food items 3%, Agricultural raw materials 1%, Fuels 95% and
Mining 1%. The three leading items exported are Petroleum oils, oils from bitumen
materials, crude 83%, Natural gas 5% and bituminous minerals 6%. Exports of oil and
natural gas are the main factor behind Nigeria's growth.
Nigeria's main exports partners are United States 36%, EU (27) 24%, India 10%,
Brazil 8%l and South Africa 3%.
20
21. 13. Senegal
The population of Senegal is estimated to 12.5 million spread on 196,720 square
kilometers. Its GDP is around US$ 14.3 billion, composed by Agriculture 19%, Industry
21% and Service 61%.
Senegal’s exports depend on commodities at 66%. However, total exports account
to 25% of the total GDP. Items exported can be represented in the following manner; All
food items 47%, Agricultural raw materials 2%, Fuels 38% and Mining 13%. The three
leading items exported are Petroleum oils or bituminous minerals 37%, Fishery products
21%, Gold 7%,
The export major partners of Senegal are EU (27) 26%, Mali 19%, Côte d’Ivoire
4%, Switzerland 3% and China 3%.
14. Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone area is 71,740 square kilometers and it has a population of 5.8 million
inhabitants. Its GDP is estimated to US$ 3.6 billion divided in the following way;
Agriculture 58%, Industry 5% and Service 37%.
Commodity exports account for 69% of Sierra Leone total exports whereas total
exports contribute to GDP up to 17%. Items exported by Sierra Leone can be represented
in the following manner; All food items 24%, Agricultural raw materials 3%, Fuels 1%
and Mining 72%. The three leading items exported are Pearls, precious & semi-precious
stones 35%, Aluminum ores and concentrates 18% and Ores and concentrates 13%.
The major export partners of Sierra Leone are EU (27) 14%, United States 10%,
China 4%, India 2% and Côte d’Ivoire 2%.
15. Togo
The total area of Togo is 56,790 square kilometers and its population of 6 million
inhabitants. Its GDP is estimated to US$ 2.9 billion divided in the following way;
Agriculture 47%, Industry 19% and Service 34%.
Commodity exports account for 61% of its total exports and total exports contribute
to GDP up to 41%. Exported items by Togo can be represented in the following manner;
21
22. All food items 40%, Agricultural raw materials 14%, Fuels 20% and Mining 25%. The
three leading items exported are cocoa 19%, Crude fertilizers 18% and Petroleum oils or
bituminous minerals 18%.
The major export partners of Togo are EU (27) 25%, India 14%, Mali 10%, Burkina
Faso 7% and Benin 6%.
22
24. I.
CONCEPTUAL REVIEW
Export can be defined as goods and services which are sent from a country to other
countries in the world for sale. There are two types of export: visible export and invisible
export. Visible export consists of commodities which are tangible and can be seen and
touched. They appear in a country balance of trade as crude oil, coal, tin, palm oil, cotton,
rubber, gold, livestock etc…
Invisible export consists of intangible commodities that cannot be physically seen
or touch, such as services. The services are calculated in terms of money. They are
insurance, civil aviation, banking services, and tourism, audio-visual services etc...
An increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, compared
from one period of time to another. Economic growth can be measured in nominal terms,
which include inflation, or in real terms, which are adjusted for inflation. Similarly,
growth in output can be divided into two major categories; growth through increased
input i.e. labor and capital inputs cannot be increased indefinitely without encountering
diminishing marginal returns., and growth through improvement in productivity i.e.
technological progress is needed to increase the standard of living in the long-run.
Growth domestic product can be defined as all products that are produce in a
country irrespective of the nationals that produce it. For example, all goods and services
produced in USA regardless of the nationality. If Indian based in USA produced output it
is usually included in the GDP of USA. GDP is calculated without deductions for
depreciation.
II.
THEORITICAL REVIEW
One of the most enduring questions in economics is how a country can achieve high
economic growth. In Harrod-Domar model, growth depends on the amount of capital
invested. More physical capital would generate economic growth according to the model.
For any take off, the model suggests that there should be mobilization of domestic and
foreign saving in order to generate sufficient investment to accelerate economic growth.
24
25. Economic growth therefore requires policies that encourage saving and /or generate
technological advances which lower capital-output ratio (Gillis et al 1991).
However, in Arthur Lewis’s two-sector model, growth stems from capital
accumulation in the modern sector. In this model, the underdeveloped economy consists
of two sectors: a traditional, overpopulated rural subsistence sector characterized by zero
marginal labour productivity a situation that permits Lewis to classify this as surplus
labour in the sense that it can be withdrawn from the agricultural sector without any loss
of output and a high productivity modern urban industrial sector into which labour from
the subsistence sector is gradually transferred. The primary focus of the model is on both
the process of labour transfer and the growth of output and employment in the modern
sector. Both labour transfer and modern-sector employment growth are brought about by
output expansion in that sector. The speed with which this expansion occurs is
determined by the rate of industrial investment and capital accumulation in the modern
sector. Such investment is made possible by the excess of modern sector profits over
wages on the assumption that capitalists reinvest all their profits. Finally, the level of
wages in the urban industrial sector is assumed to be constant and higher than that in
traditional sector so as to induce people to leave traditional sector and work in urban
industrial sector. An increase in the amount of capital in the modern sector would
therefore increase the marginal product of labour and hence total output in the sector
without affecting the traditional sector. For Lewis, capital accumulation in the modern
sector is the method for growing a less developed economy without doing any real
damage to the traditional sector (Todaro, 1997).
In the Lewis-Ranis-Fei model, saving and investment are drivers of economic
growth. This is consistent with the Harrod-Domar model but in context of less-developed
countries. The model is an improvement over Lewis’s model of unlimited supplies of
labour because Lewis failed to present a satisfactory analysis of the growth of the
agricultural sector. Ranis and Fei (1961) formalized Lewis’s theory by combining it with
Rostow’s (1961) three “linear-stages-of-growth” theory. They disassembled Lewis’s twostage economic development into three phases, defined by the marginal productivity of
agricultural labour. They assume the economy to be stagnant in its pre-conditioning
stage. The breakout point marks the creation of an infant non-agricultural sector and the
entry into phase one. Agricultural labour starts to be reallocated to the non-agricultural
25
26. sector. Due to the abundance of surplus agricultural labour, its marginal productivity is
extremely low and average labour productivity defines the agricultural institutional wage.
When the redundant agricultural labour force has been reallocated, the agricultural
marginal productivity of labour starts to rise but is still lower than the institutional wage.
This marks the shortage point at which the economy enters phase two of development.
During phase two the remaining agricultural unemployment is gradually absorbed. At the
end of this process the economy reaches the commercialization point and enters phase
three where the agricultural labour market is fully commercialized (Ercolani and Wei
2010).
Finally, according to Pack (1988), there is potential for no causal relationship
between exports and economic growth when the growth paths of the two time series are
determined by other unrelated variables in the economic system.
III.
EMPIRICAL REVIEW
1. Export and economic growth
Numerous articles on the correlation between trade and growth have been written
and large numbers of those studies established positive relationship between exports
expansion and economic growth. There are several influential studies that provide a
useful framework for analyzing the relationship between exports and economic growth,
i.e., Baldwin and Forslid (1996), Feenstra (1990), Segerstrom, Anant and Dinopoulos
(1990), Grossman and Helpman (1990), and Rivera-Batiz and Romer (1991). The basic
idea of this literature is that exports increase total factor productivity because of their
impact on economics of scale and other externalities such as technology transfer,
improving skills of workers, improving managerial skills, and increasing productive
capacity of the economy. Another advantage of export-led growth is that it allows for a
better utilization of resources, which reflects the true opportunity cost of limited
resources and does not discriminate against the domestic market.
There are also many studies analyzing the role of exports in the economic growth
specifically for developing countries. Most of these studies conclude that there is a
26
27. positive relationship between exports and economic growth, for example, Balassa (1978
and 1985), Jung and Marshall (1985), Ram (1985 and 1987), Chow (1987), Shan and Sun
(1988), Bahmani-Oskoee, Mohtadi and Shabsigh (1991), Bahmani-Oskoee and Alse
(1993), Jin (1995), Levin and Raut (1997), and Khalifa Al-Youssif (1997). Vohra (2001)
investigated the role of export-growth linkage in India, Pakistan, Philippines, Malaysia,
and Thailand respectively. Time series data for the period from 1973-1993 was used.
Most of this literature attributes the effects of exports on economic growth to several
factors. One of the key factors however is that exports promote thresholds effects due to
economies of scale, increased capacity utilization, productivity gains, and greater product
variety. It is also argued that exports of goods and services provide the opportunity to
compete in the international markets that leads to technology transfer and improvement
in managerial skills. Indeed, a recent review by Gunter, Taylor and Yeldan (2005)
concludes that any gains from trade liberalization are often associated with external
effects that are dynamic in nature.
Michaely (1977) finds an optimistic association sandwich between export and
growth of economics. Vohra (2001) investigated the role of export-growth linkage in
India, Pakistan, Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand respectively. Time series data for the
period from 1973-1993 was used. The empirical results shows that exports have a
positive and significant impact on economic growth. Young (2002) found that export
growth is a positive contributor to economic development in low-income countries as
well as middle-income countries. Though, the impact is somehow stronger in middleincome countries than in low-income countries. Hadass and Williamson (2003) find the
empirical evidence between economic growths, terms of trade and exports over the
period 1870-1940. They find strong disassociation between economic growths, terms of
trade and exports. Abou-Stait, (2005) described that there are large numbers of empirical
studies that confirm the strong association between exports and economic growth.
2. Export led economic growth
The notion of trade as an engine of growth is given much emphasis by many
economists. The ideal that international trade brings economic growth increases the
27
28. welfare of a nation started during the 17th century by a group of merchants, government
officials and philosophers who advocated on economic philosophy known as
mercantilism. For a nation to become and powerful, it has to export more than it imports
where the resulting export surplus is used to purchase precious metals like gold and
silver. The government in its power has control imports and stimulates the nation’s
exports.
Adam Smith attacked the main mercantilist’s views and proposed the classical
theory of international trade based on the concept of absolute advantage model.
According to him, stock of human, man-made and natural resources rather than stock of
precious metals were the true wealth of a nation and argued that the wealth of a nation
can be expanded if the government would abandon mercantilist controls. In addition, he
showed that trade can make a nation better off without making another worse off (Debel
2002).
A model of comparative advantage was later articulated by David Ricardo to
replace the principle of absolute advantage. According to this model, a country will
specialized in the production of which it’s had in abundant and export the commodity i.e.
the commodity that it can produce at the lowest relative cost. Also, J.S. Mill formulated a
theory, the principle of reciprocal demand and later developed by Edgeworth and
Marshall. Both demand and supply conditions which determine the terms of trade and
hence trade between countries.
The proponents of the traditional theory of trade argues that trade can contribute
largely to the development of primary exporting countries. However, other economists
strongly believe that the accrual of the gains from international trade is biased in favour
of the advanced industrial countries and that foreign trade has inhibited industrial
development in poor nations. These economists contend that international trade as being
irrelevant for developing nations and the development process. There are two policies
adopted by many developing countries namely, import substitution and export promotion.
Portents of the view that trade brings development policies encourage outward
looking development policies (Export promotion). According to Todaro (1994), the
outward looking development policies “encourage not only free trade but also free
28
29. movement of capital, workers, enterprises and students, the multinational enterprises, and
open system of communication”.
In contrast, opponents of the traditional view advocate an inward-looking
development policy. This policy stresses the need for less developed countries to
implement their own styles of development and adopt indigenous technologies
appropriate to their resource endowment.
The factor endowment theory of Eli Hecksher and Berti Ohlin (H-O), of external
trade evolved. According to this theory, different relative proportions and countries have
different endowments of factors of production. Some countries have large amounts of
capital (capital abundant) while others have little capital and much labour (labour
abundant). This theory argued that each country has a comparative advantage in that
commodity which uses the country’s abundant factor. Capital abundant countries should
specialize in the production and export of capital-intensive goods while labour abundant
countries should specialize in the production and export of labour-intensive commodities.
This theory encouraged third world countries to focus on their labour and land intensive
primary product exports.
However, it was argued that by exchanging these primary products for
manufactured goods of the developed countries, third world nations could realize
enormous benefits obtained from trade with the richer nations. (Debel 2002)
Afxentiou and Serletis (1991) examine the validity of ELG in 16 industrial
countries. The study covers the period from 1950 to 1985. The countries included in the
sample are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark and Finland. Others are Germany,
Iceland, Ireland, Japan and Netherlands. The rest are Norway, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, UK and US.
After testing for unit root and cointegration, vector autoregressve (VAR) model is
used to test for causality. Afxentiou and Serletis (1991) find no export –led growth in any
of the 16 countries. However, they find unidirectional causality from output growth to
export growth in Norway, Canada and Japan. The other causal relationship they find is
bidirectional causality in the US.
29
30. Marin (1992) presents a vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis of data for four
countries (Germany, United Kingdom, the United States and Japan). He uses quarterly
data for manufactured exports, the terms of trade, OECD output and labour productivity.
To verify whether exports and productivity have a long-run equilibrium relationship,
Marin (1992) performs preliminary tests for the cointegration. He finds no conclusive
evidence of cointegration between these two variables. However, he does find evidence
of a cointegrating relationship among exports, productivity and the terms of trade in the
United States, Germany and Japan. He tests for optimal lag-length of past information
using Beyesian Information Criterion (BIC). To determine the causal relationship
between exports and economic growth, he performs Granger-Causality test. His tests
support the export-led growth hypothesis for the four countries. However, he finds that
the “quantitative impact of exports on productivity is negligible” on the basis of the sum
of the autoregressive coefficients on lagged values of exports in the productivity
equation.
Al –Yousif (1997), tests the export-led-growth (ELG) hypothesis in four Arab Gulf
oil producing countries. These countries are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates
and Oman. The study covers the period 1973 -1993.
In order to examine the relationship between exports and economic growth, Al –
Yousif (1997) estimates two models for each country. One of the models has basic form
of the production function while the other is a sectoral model.
To determine the long run relationship between exports and economic growth, Al –
Yousif (1997) performs cointegration. He finds no long –run relationship between
exports and economic growth. However, export is found to have positive and significant
impact on economic growth in all the countries. The Durbin –Watson and BrueschGodfrey statistics show no evidence of serial correlation. Again, he tests for structural
stability of the series using the Farely-Hininch test and finds that the growth equations for
the four countries are structurally stable. Finally, he performs a specification test using
White’s and Hausman’s specification tests and both models are found to be correctly
specified.
30
31. Ram (1985) investigates the role of exports in economic growth using the
production function model that treats exports as similar to a production input. His
objective is to shed new light on the relationship between exports and economic growth
using fairly standard models but employing larger data sets, focusing on certain specific
issues, and handling some econometric questions relevant to such empirical work. His
study adopts the specification used by Bala Balassa, William Tylor etc. He conducts the
investigation for 1960 -70 and 1970 -77 separately so as to determine whether the
importance of exports for economic growth increase over the 1970s.
Again, he takes a closer look at the differential in the impact of exports in the low income and the middle income LDCs for both periods, thus examining the widely held
belief that exports are probably not important for growth in the low-income LDCs. He
conducts a test to see whether the assumption of homoscedasticity is reasonable and
whether a single equation model is adequate. The results of the study indicate that export
performance is important for economic growth. Besides, the impact of export
performance on growth is small in the low-income LDCs over the period 1960 -70 but
the impact differential almost disappears in 1970 -77.
Finally, he used the test statistics proposed by White to test for heteroscedasticity
and other specification errors and the result indicates the absence of both problems.
Njikam (2003) tested for the ELG hypothesis in 21 sub-Saharan African countries.
These countries are Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, Cote
d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Gabon. Others are Ghana, Kenya,
Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria and Niger. The rest are Republic of Congo, Senegal,
Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo and Zambia.
The study aims at: (a) testing the causal relationship between exports and economic
growth. (b) establishing the direction of causality if the relationship in (a) above exists
and (c), examining whether the direction of causality is reversed when countries change
from import –substitution strategy to exports promotion strategies.
To examine whether agriculture and manufactured exports cause economic growth
and vice versa in the above countries, Njikam (2003) employs autoregressive models.
The author tests for stationary on the series using the ADF test. The minimum final
prediction error (FPE) and Schwarz–Bayesian (SBC) Criteria are used by Njikam (2003)
31
32. to determine the optimum lag –length of past information. Again, he uses the Granger –
causality technique to determine the direction of causation.
To verify the direction of causation and to test the significance of the restricted
coefficients, Njikam (2003) uses the wald test (WT) and the likelihood ratio test (LRT).
He finds that, real GDP and real exports are stationary in all countries during the exports
promotion period. The optimum lag length for all variables is found to vary across
countries. In Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, DRC, Ghana, Madagascar, Malawi
and Zambia, unidirectional causation is found from agricultural exports to economic
growth. In Cameroon, Mali and Malawi however, he finds unidirectional causation from
manufactured exports to real GDP growth.
Again, the author finds unidirectional causation from real GDP to agricultural
exports in Mali, Nigeria, Kenya, Senegal and Tanzania. Besides, he finds unidirectional
causation from real GDP to manufactured exports in Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon,
Ghana, Madagascar and Togo. This implies that total export growth depends on the
economic growth in these countries.
Finally, bidirectional causation between agricultural exports and economic growth
is found in Burkina Faso, DRC and Madagascar. This therefore leads to an acceptance of
the ELG and the economic growth led export hypotheses in these countries.
To conclude, it can be deduced from the above studies that most of the authors saw
the need to adopt time series approaches because the question on export –led growth is
essentially dynamic one. However, the results remain mixed and ambiguous. This may be
due to either specification bias or exclusion of import or different time periods. This
thesis corrects these problems.
32
34. A research methodology is a framework or blueprint to conduct a research project;
it details the procedures necessary to carry out a research and answer decision regarding
what, when, where, how to do a particular research work. For any research work to be
conducted in a scientific way, it is necessary to have a method through which information
will be obtained or collected and variables will be analysed and measured. Therefore, this
chapter seeks to explain the sample size, the procedures and method employed in data
analysis of the study.
I.
UNIVERSE
In the methodological language, the universe is defined as the place where relevant
data is collected. Selection of the universe is very important in a research study as it
provides more accuracy and precision. In statistical sense, the tern “universe” means the
aggregate of person or objective of study. Universe is theoretical or hypothetical
aggregation of all elements as defined for a given research (Babbie, 2001. In this optic,
the universe has been made simple considering the countries which are considered as the
pillar of ECOWAS economy with the highest annual GDP (More than US$ 20 Billion).
Thus, out of fifteen countries members of ECOWAS, only three countries having GDP
over US$ 20 billion have been selected as universe of the study according World Bank
data, 2011. Those countries are namely; Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria. These three
country together represent 67% of ECOWAS total population, 82% of ECOWAS total
GDP, and 89% of ECOWAS total exports value.
II.
SAMPLE DESIGN
The selection of the research sample has important consequences on the validity of
research findings (Vaus, 2001). The major purpose of conducting a research is to be able
to make some claims about the larger population. Therefore, it is essential to choose a
sample that enable to generalise findings to the larger population. In order to represent
the population, the sample size of 31years has been drawn from 1980 to 2011.
34
35. III.
DATA
1. Data collection
In this study, the data used are purely obtained from secondary sources. Secondary
data are data which have been already collected by someone or an organisation. For this
study, data have been sourced only from World Bank Databank for the time period
ranging from 1980 to 2011.
2. Data analysis
Once data has been collected, the next step usually involves the analysis of those
data. The choice of analytical procedure depends on several factors, including type of
research question which was asked originally and the characteristics of the data which
was collected (Sowel & Casey, 1982). So for the study, Simple linear regression model
and the ordinary least squares technique have been used as an analytical technique for
parameters estimation. Minitab statistical software has been used for computation
analysis.
IV.
MODEL SPECIFICATION
The model employed in this study is simple linear regression models. The model is
expressed as follows:
GDP = f (Export)
(1)
Symbolically equation (1) can be expressed as follow:
G = α + βExp + µ
(2)
Where;
G: GDP growth rate (annual gross domestic product growth rate in %age),
Exp: exports as %age of gross domestic product,
α: Intercept,
35
36. β: coefficient (β>0),
µ: stochastic term (shows effect of the other factors).
Equation (2) states that the impact of exports on economic growth expected to be
positive.
Several empirical studies reveal that exports contribute to GDP growth more than
just the change in the volume of exports. Many researchers, highlighting many beneficial
aspects of exports, such as greater capacity utilization, economies of scale, incentives for
technological improvements and efficient management due to competitive pressures
abroad (Balassa, 1978; Al-Youssif, 1997). Voivodas, (1973) and Ram, (1987) described
that trade, particularly exports, may encourage competition. According to Salvatore and
Hatcher (1991) exports is a key explanatory variable contributing in the process of
economic growth. Thus, an increase in exports expected to promote economic growth
and expand market for the domestic producers and forces them to be more efficient in the
wake of increased competition. Therefore, this study hypothesises positive relationship
between exports and economic growth.
36
38. I.
PRESENTATION OF RESULT
1. Results for Cote d’Ivoire
The regression equation is: G = - 2.16 + 0.074 Exp (a)
Predictor
Coef
SE Coef
T
P
Constant
-2.161
4.179
-0.52
0.609
Exp
0.0740
0.1024
0.72
0.475
Table 1
S = 3.70233 R-Sq = 1.7% R-Sq (adj) = 0. 0%
Analysis of Variance
Source
Regression
DF
SS
MS
1
7.17
7.17
Residual Error
30
411.22
31
0.52
P
13.71
Total
F
0.475
418.39
Table 2
38
39. 2. Results for: Ghana
The regression equation is: G = 0.66 + 0.150 Exp
Predictor
Coef
Constant
(b)
SE Coef
T
P
0.659
0. 49
0.630
0.14981
Exp
1.356
0.04933
3.04
0.005
Table 3
S = 3.40208 R-Sq = 23.5% R-Sq (adj) = 21.0%
Analysis of Variance
Source
Regression
DF
SS
MS
1
106.76
106.76
Residual Error
30
347.22
31
9. 22
P
11.57
Total
F
0.005
453.99
Table 4
39
40. 3. Results for: Nigeria
The regression equation is: G = 19.9 + 0,576 Exp
Predictor
Coef
(c)
SE Coef
T
P
Constant
19.935
1.101
18.10
0.000
Exp
0. 5759
0.1875
3.07
0.004
Table 5
S = 5.18456 R-Sq = 23.9% R-Sq (adj) = 21.4%
Analysis of Variance
Source
Regression
DF
SS
MS
1
253.62
253.62
Residual Error
30
806.39
31
9.44
P
26.88
Total
F
0.004
1060.01
Table 6
40
41. II.
INTERPRETATION & DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
Empirical results of this study are given for Cote d’Ivoire in Table 1, and Table 2,
for Ghana in Table 3 and Table 4 and for Nigeria in Table 5 and Table 6 respectively.
1. Cote d’Ivoire
From the Table 1, the positive sign of the coefficient shows a positive relationship
between the explanatory variable (Exp) and the response (G), it means that both exports
and GDP move in the same direction. And the regression equation (a) indicates that the
export coefficient is 0.074; it means that if exports increase by 1%, the GDP of Cote
d’Ivoire will also increase by 0.074% on average when all other factors are held constant,
vice versa.
However, the ANOVA Table 2 shows that the F statistic is equal to 7.17/13.71 =
0.52. The distribution is F (1, 30), and the probability of observing a value greater than or
equal to 0.52 is greater than 0.01, so the evidence that β is not equal to zero is very less.
Similarly, F-test tells that Exports do not explain a larger part of the variance observed in
GDP compared to the null model (intercept only). Therefore, the significant quantity of
Exports is less in the GDP variability.
In the other side, the R-Square term is equal to 0.017, indicates that 1.7% of the
variability in GDP is explained by Exports.
2. Ghana
By analysing the Table 3, the positive sign of the coefficient shows a positive
relationship between the explanatory variable (Exp) and the response (G), it means that
both exports and GDP move in the same direction. And the regression equation (b)
indicates that the export coefficient is 0.165; it means that if exports increase by 1%, the
GDP of Ghana will also increase by 0.165% on average when all other factors are held
constant, vice versa.
Nevertheless, the ANOVA Table 4 shows that the F statistic is equal to
106.76/11.57 = 9.22. The distribution is F (1, 30), and the probability of observing a
41
42. value greater than or equal to 9.22 is less than 0.01, so there is strong evidence that β is
not equal to zero. Similarly, F-test tells that Exports explain a larger part of the variance
observed in GDP compared to the null model (intercept only). Therefore, the significant
quantity of Exports is strong in the GDP variability.
In the other side, the R-Square term is equal to 0.235, indicates that 23.5% of the
variability in GDP is explained by Exports.
3. Nigeria
From the analysis of the Table 5, the positive sign of the coefficient shows a
positive relationship between the explanatory variable (Exp) and the response (G), it
means that both exports and GDP move in the same direction. And the regression
equation (c) indicates that the export coefficient is 0.165; it means that if exports increase
by 1%, the GDP of Nigeria will also increase by 0.165% on average when all other
factors are held constant, vice versa.
Nevertheless, the ANOVA Table 6 shows that the F statistic is equal to
253.62/26.88 = 9.44. The distribution is F (1, 30), and the probability of observing a
value greater than or equal to 9.44 is less than 0.01, so there is strong evidence that β is
not equal to zero. Similarly, F-test tells that Exports do explain a larger part of the
variance observed in GDP compared to the null model (intercept only). Therefore, the
significant quantity of Export is very strong in the GDP variability.
In the other side, the R-Square term is equal to 0.239, indicates that 23.9% of the
variability in GDP is explained by Exports.
42
44. I.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
A sample size of thirty six years (31) that ranged from 1980 to 2011 had been used
in this study to examine the impact of export on economic growth of ECOWAS
countries. The method of OLS regression has been adopted in carrying out the research
work. It was found that there is positive relationship between exports and GDP for all the
countries of study. Overall results found are statistically significant and support the study
hypothesis even though the significant in Cote d’Ivoire case was less.
Table 1 show that the impact of exports found positively significant and the
coefficient size of this variable found 0.074; in this case one percent change in exports
will change economic growth of Cote d’Ivoire by 0.074 percent. It means that due to
promotion of exports, economic growth of Cote d’Ivoire would increase. Table 3 reveals
that the impact of Ghana’s exports on economic growth found positively significant at
1% level of significance. The coefficient size of this variable found 0.165; in this case
one percent change in exports will change economic growth of Ghana by 0.165 percent.
Table 5 reveals that the impact of Nigeria’s exports on economic growth found positively
significant at 1% level of significance. The coefficient size of this variable found 0.576;
in this case one percent change in exports will change economic growth of Nigeria by
0.576 percent. The positive significant results of exports on economic growth also have
been found by (Khan and Saqib, 1993; Ruppel, 1997; Gopinath and Vasavada, 1999;
Abou-Stait, 2005; Chiara and Subash 2009).
In a comparative view, Nigeria comes first with the highest exports coefficient size
of the study (0.576) followed by Ghana (0.165) and Cote d’Ivoire which has the lowest
(0.074).
Therefore, it is found that the economic grow of Nigeria lies strongly on its exports.
This fact can be explained by the fact that export of agriculture, petroleum and petroleum
products are the main GDP contributors.
Similarly, Exports have also significant impact on the economic growth of Ghana as
the country economy is based on exports of mining, agriculture and recently petroleum
and petroleum products.
Unlike Nigeria and Ghana, exports growth impacts lightly on the economy of Cote
d’Ivoire. Its economy is mainly based on exports of agricultural commodities and
44
45. products, although the country tries to diversify its economy the fluctuation of
commodities prices affect its exports.
II.
CONCLUSION
Drawing from the empirical investigation into the impact of exports on economic
growth of ECOWAS pillar countries using GDP as the dependent variable and Exports as
independent variables from 1980 to 2011, it emerged from the study that there is
significant relationship between exports and GDP even though that relationship is not
equally observed in all the countries. The main objectives of this study are to analyze
empirically the impact of exports on economic growth of selected countries of ECOWAS
i.e. Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria. The impacts of exports on economic growth found
are statistically significant in this study during the study period. The positive impact of
exports on economic growth demonstrates that expansion in exports is highly important
for the encouragement of desirable level of economic development in all selected
countries. However, it has been observed from the empirical results that impact of
exports on economic growth for both the countries i.e. Ghana and Nigeria are high if
compared with the results of Cote d’Ivoire.
Finally, we can say that exports have significant impact on economic growth.
Therefore, it is obvious that increase in exports represents improvement in economic
development of a country and expansions in exports improve social welfare of people.
The rapid growth economies are usually characterized by speedy expansion in exports.
III.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on the findings of this study, it is important to provide a set of policy
recommendation that would be applicable to the ECOWAS economy.
1. The Governments should come together to establish a regional export promotion
council to provide help to exporter.
45
46. 2. The governments should encourage more private company participation in
industrialisation so that of manufacturing products will increase.
3. Security should be boosted on the high sea where crude oil products are being
smuggled. This will help reduce the loss from illegal export of crude oil products.
4. Government should give immediate attention to the indigenous of the region where
crude oil is being extracted from. This will reduce the unrest in the region in Nigeria.
5. Government should increase intra-ecowas trade in order to foster regional growth.
6. Government should improve on fighting corruption, arrest and prosecute corrupt public
office holders.
7. Stay apace with changing consumer preferences through continual introduction of new
and innovative products.
8. Reduce costs in order to stave off competition from elsewhere.
Thus, findings of the present study suggest that the policy makers of each country
included in this study needs to expand volume of exports in order to boost socioeconomic development.
46
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