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OPEC Measures Against COVID-19
Nabeel Ahmed
Research Credits
Anand N Krishna
CA Jugal Narendra Gala
Legends used in the Presentation
DoC Declaration of Cooperation
GDP Global Domestic Product
OPEC Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
PSU Public Sector Units
Presentation Schema
Introduction OPEC+ Countries Proposal to Cut Production
Reaching Consensus Conclusion
Industry Overview
Introduction
The oil and gas sector is one of the core industries in India
It plays a major role in influencing decision making for all the other important sections of the economy
India’s economic growth is closely related to energy demand therefore the need for oil and gas is projected to grow
more, thereby making the sector quite conducive for investment
Industry Outlook
COVID-19 is an unseen beast that seems to be impacting everything in its path. There are no
sectors of the economy unaffected by this unprecedented situation
For the oil market, it has completely disoriented market supply and demand fundamentals
The expected 2020 global GDP was reduced from 2.4% in March to -1.1% in April. This global
contraction is far greater than that for the Great Recession of 2008-2009
OPEC Secretariat’s assessment of available global oil storage capacity stands over 1 billion barrels
Given the current unprecedented supply and demand imbalance there could be a colossal excess
volume of 14.7 million barrels per day in the 2nd Quarter of 2020
OPEC+ Countries
Algeria Nigeria Kazakhstan
Angola Qatar Malaysia
Ecuador Saudi Arabia Mexico
Gabon United Arab Emirites Oman
Iran Venezuela Russian Federation
Iraq Azerbaijin South Sudan
Kuwait Bahrain Sudan
Libya Brunei Darussalam
The following countries decided to strengthen their cooperation with a view to ensuring a sustainable oil
market, for the benefit of producers and consumers and to regularly review the status of their
cooperation. These countries are also referred to as the participants of the “Declaration of Cooperation”
Proposal to Cut Production
1st May, 2020 to 30th June, 2020 10 million barrels per day
1st July, 2020 to 31st December, 2020 8 million barrels per day
1st January, 2021 to 30th April, 2022 6 million barrels per day
At the 9th Extraordinary Meeting held on 10th April 2020, the OPEC put forward a proposal to OPEC+ countries in the
presence of stakeholders to adjust downwards their crude oil production in a staggered manner as follows:
The baseline for the calculation of the adjustments is the oil production of October 2018, except for the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia and The Russian Federation, which is at 11 million barrels days
The agreement will be valid until 30th April 2022, however, the extension of this agreement will be reviewed during
December 2021
The above was agreed by all the OPEC+ countries with the exception of Mexico, and as a result, the agreement is
conditional on the consent of Mexico
Reaching Consensus
At the 10th Extraordinary Meeting held on 12th April 2020, all the OPEC+ countries agreed to adjust downwards their
crude oil production in a staggered manner in line with the 9th Extraordinary Meeting with marginal changes as follows:
The Meeting reaffirmed and extended the mandate of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee
and its membership, to closely review general market conditions, oil production levels and the level
of conformity with the DoC
The Meeting called upon all major producers to provide commensurate and timely contributions to
the efforts aimed at stabilizing the oil market
The Participants agreed to meet on 10th June 2020 via videoconference, to determine further actions,
as needed to balance the market
•9.70 million barrels per day1st May, 2020 to 30th June, 2020
•7.70 million barrels per day1st July, 2020 to 31st December, 2020
•5.80 million barrels per day1st January, 2021 to 30th April, 2022
Conclusion
Despite the attention given to the OPEC deal, the most profound problem remains
crashing global oil demand due to the economic impacts of the coronavirus
Ultimately, the size of the demand shock is simply too large for a coordinated
supply cut
The oversupply would add a further 1.3 billion barrels to global crude oil stocks, and
hence exhaust the available global crude oil storage capacity within the month of May
Thank You!
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Impact of COVID-19 in Oil Industry

  • 1. OPEC Measures Against COVID-19 Nabeel Ahmed
  • 2. Research Credits Anand N Krishna CA Jugal Narendra Gala
  • 3. Legends used in the Presentation DoC Declaration of Cooperation GDP Global Domestic Product OPEC Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PSU Public Sector Units
  • 4. Presentation Schema Introduction OPEC+ Countries Proposal to Cut Production Reaching Consensus Conclusion
  • 6. Introduction The oil and gas sector is one of the core industries in India It plays a major role in influencing decision making for all the other important sections of the economy India’s economic growth is closely related to energy demand therefore the need for oil and gas is projected to grow more, thereby making the sector quite conducive for investment
  • 7. Industry Outlook COVID-19 is an unseen beast that seems to be impacting everything in its path. There are no sectors of the economy unaffected by this unprecedented situation For the oil market, it has completely disoriented market supply and demand fundamentals The expected 2020 global GDP was reduced from 2.4% in March to -1.1% in April. This global contraction is far greater than that for the Great Recession of 2008-2009 OPEC Secretariat’s assessment of available global oil storage capacity stands over 1 billion barrels Given the current unprecedented supply and demand imbalance there could be a colossal excess volume of 14.7 million barrels per day in the 2nd Quarter of 2020
  • 8. OPEC+ Countries Algeria Nigeria Kazakhstan Angola Qatar Malaysia Ecuador Saudi Arabia Mexico Gabon United Arab Emirites Oman Iran Venezuela Russian Federation Iraq Azerbaijin South Sudan Kuwait Bahrain Sudan Libya Brunei Darussalam The following countries decided to strengthen their cooperation with a view to ensuring a sustainable oil market, for the benefit of producers and consumers and to regularly review the status of their cooperation. These countries are also referred to as the participants of the “Declaration of Cooperation”
  • 9. Proposal to Cut Production 1st May, 2020 to 30th June, 2020 10 million barrels per day 1st July, 2020 to 31st December, 2020 8 million barrels per day 1st January, 2021 to 30th April, 2022 6 million barrels per day At the 9th Extraordinary Meeting held on 10th April 2020, the OPEC put forward a proposal to OPEC+ countries in the presence of stakeholders to adjust downwards their crude oil production in a staggered manner as follows: The baseline for the calculation of the adjustments is the oil production of October 2018, except for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and The Russian Federation, which is at 11 million barrels days The agreement will be valid until 30th April 2022, however, the extension of this agreement will be reviewed during December 2021 The above was agreed by all the OPEC+ countries with the exception of Mexico, and as a result, the agreement is conditional on the consent of Mexico
  • 10. Reaching Consensus At the 10th Extraordinary Meeting held on 12th April 2020, all the OPEC+ countries agreed to adjust downwards their crude oil production in a staggered manner in line with the 9th Extraordinary Meeting with marginal changes as follows: The Meeting reaffirmed and extended the mandate of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee and its membership, to closely review general market conditions, oil production levels and the level of conformity with the DoC The Meeting called upon all major producers to provide commensurate and timely contributions to the efforts aimed at stabilizing the oil market The Participants agreed to meet on 10th June 2020 via videoconference, to determine further actions, as needed to balance the market •9.70 million barrels per day1st May, 2020 to 30th June, 2020 •7.70 million barrels per day1st July, 2020 to 31st December, 2020 •5.80 million barrels per day1st January, 2021 to 30th April, 2022
  • 11. Conclusion Despite the attention given to the OPEC deal, the most profound problem remains crashing global oil demand due to the economic impacts of the coronavirus Ultimately, the size of the demand shock is simply too large for a coordinated supply cut The oversupply would add a further 1.3 billion barrels to global crude oil stocks, and hence exhaust the available global crude oil storage capacity within the month of May
  • 12. Thank You! Scan the QR Code to Join our Research Group on WhatsApp Scan the QR Code to explore more Research from our Website DVS Advisors LLP India-Singapore-London-Dubai-Malaysia-Africa www.dvsca.com Copyrights © 2020 DVS Advisors LLP