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Disruptive Technology and Trade
Where Is Growth Coming From – and
Is That Where You Will Be?
Dr. Kati Suominen
Founder & CEO, Nextrade Group
ICC Banking Commission, Miami
5 April 2018
kati@nextradegroupllc.com
Who Exports? Almost No-One
Source: Enterprise Surveys and eBay (2016).
% of companies that export
Source: Enterprise Surveys and eBay (2016).
Ecommerce Is Killer App for World Trade
% of companies that export
Ecommerce Sellers Export Everywhere
Source: Enterprise Surveys and eBay (2016).
Number of export markets
Source: Suominen (2017).
Ecommerce Alchemy
% of companies that export
• Visibility, trust
From Long Tail to Fat Tail
Top 5%
• Old trade: largest 5%
firms originated 90% of
exports
• New trade: largest 5%
originate 30% of exports
Intermediated Trade to Direct Trade
3bn New Netizens: New Smartphone Subscriptions
1.6bn in
APAC
New Shoppers
In Trade:
• More sellers & buyers
• More corridors
• More product varieties
Larger Feasible Market  More Export Products
Number of Products Exported
Old Globalization: iPhone
Old Globalization: “Made in the World”
New Globalization
New Globalization
• Lower production, inventory, & shipping costs: savings conservatively 50%
• Volvo engines: time to manufacture down from 36 days to 2 days, 94% gain
Global Local Supply Chains
AT RISK:
• 41% of air cargo
• 37% of container trade
• 25% of trucking
Source: Pricewaterhouse Coopers (2015).
New Globalization
“Apple Manufacturer Foxconn to Fully Replace Humans With Robots” –
Digitimes, 2016
New Smart Physical-Financial Supply Chain

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