Bjarni Ellert Ísleifsson discusses the many choices that must be made in developing effective maintenance strategies, systems, and objectives. He notes there are many options for strategies like RCM and TPM, systems like SAP and Maximo, and objectives like OEE and MTBF. However, there is no single correct approach - the right choices depend on balancing costs, risks, and business needs. Effective maintenance requires using good methods and tools to maximize productivity while minimizing costs.
How To Get Results From Maintenance Systems Montreal2012
1. Choosing the right maintenance strategies to achieve desired
results from maintenance systems and objectives
Bjarni Ellert Ísleifsson, CMRP
Maintenance Specialist
Alcoa Fjarðaál, Iceland
2. Just a little about me
Bjarni Ellert Ísleifsson, CMRP
Maintenance Specialist Alcoa Fjarðaál Iceland
MSc in Maintenance Engineering & Asset Management from
Manchester University, England
The short overview of my work so far:
Maintenance Specialist at Alcoa
Chairman of The Icelandic Maintenance Association
General Manager at Maintenance Management ltd
Consulting with focus on Maintenance Engineering , Reliability & Asset
Management
All my work was related to showing companies how to achieve success through
good maintenance & reliability practices
3. … a little more about me
DMM Solutions ltd, CMMS Software development company
Software analysis
Service management
Maintenance consulting
Training
Implementation of Maintenance Management software
Sudurnes Geothermal Corporation, Svartsengi Power plant
Engineer
Implementing DMM, Maintenance Management Software
Engineer on various ships and production facilities
Working in maintenance from 16 years old
7. But we are here to talk about maintenance!
Choosing the right maintenance strategies to achieve desired results from
maintenance systems and objectives
How can we be sure about what maintenance strategies, systems and
objectives are best to be chosen?
We have plenty of strategies to choose from
We have plenty of systems to choose from
We have plenty of objectives to choose from
Is there only one correct way to go?
…of course there is one correct way to go, it is called my way
9. With all these choices can there ↓ be only one…
Strategies Systems Objectives, KPI’s
RCM SAP OEE
TPM Maximo MTBF
VDM JD Edwards PMC
BCM DMM CMH
QBM Many more… SO
Many more… Many more…
10. Why do we do maintenance?
To maintain equipment’s function and productivity!
If an equipment does not work or deliver the required productivity then it does not
return the investment that the owners of that equipment require from it
Maintenance should only be done if it is justifiable, financially or otherwise
Preventive Maintenance or
Condition Based Maintenance or
Break Down Maintenance
11. Why do we do maintenance?
BUT you need to account for ALL costs and consequences of failures
Usually production losses are what drives maintenance managerial decision making
It is sometimes not a simple task to measure maintenance losses and gains,
especially gains
What is a maintenance gain? For examle a prevention of failure… how do you
measure what does NOT happen?
Maintenance Management can be a very complicated phenomenon
Maintenance is ONLY a necessary evil!!!
If we could choose not to do it, we would not do it!!!
12. General misunderstanding in maintenance
Throw money, recourses and time into the problem and it will be solved
However it has been proven over and over again that if we use our recourses well
with the right methods and tools, we actually save money and increase productivity
Maintenance cost Productivity and availability of equipment
$$$ Bad methods and tools
Bad Good
$ Good methods and tools
13. General misunderstanding in maintenance
Maintenance cost Productivity and availability of equipment
$$$ Bad methods and tools
Bad Good
PROFIT$
$ Good methods and tools $$$$$$$
$$$$$$$
Investing in good methods and tools can
bring a company great benefits in the form
of big gains in productivity and profit
14. Efficiency and effect
Bad maintenance The dream place to be
Executed well
Efficiency Good maintenance
Well executed
Improved
Maintenance
Planning
Good maintenance
Bad maintenance
Executed badly
Executed badly
Improved maintenance methods Effect
15. How do we get what we need for maintenance
Always talk money, it is the only thing that matters at the end of the day!
There is no certain amount of maintenance or methods that is more correct
then another
You choose how much maintenance you do
The maintenance process is based on finding the correct balance between
acceptable risk and cost
Cost Risk
16. And having said all that we are back to choices?
Strategies Systems Objectives, KPI’s
RCM SAP OEE
TPM Maximo MTBF
VDM JD Edwards PMC
BCM ORACLE eAM CMH
QBM DMM SO
Many more… Many more… Many more…
18. Methods and tools vs. Strategy
RCM has a great method called FMEA sometimes called FMECA, the 7 steps
process...
TPM has a great method called OEE, Operators care, 5S ...
BCM has the maintenance circle... Business
objectives
Production
objectives
VDM... Maintenance
Adjust as objectives
REx... necassary
Maintenance management Failure symtoms
Safety demands
Longevity demands
Purchasing demands
Life plans
Employee policy Organization
Set up of production process
PM / PdM Demands of production
Stores policy Work planning
Resource Budget
Set up of production process planning Workload
Employees
Contractors
19. RCM, 7 steps process
It is defined by the technical standard SAE JA1011 [3], Evaluation Criteria for
RCM Processes, which sets out the minimum criteria that any process should
meet before it can be called RCM. This starts with the 7 questions below,
worked through in the order that they are listed:
1. What is the item supposed to do and its associated performance standards?
2. In what ways can it fail to provide the required functions?
3. What are the events that cause each failure?
4. What happens when each failure occurs?
5. In what way does each failure matters?
6. What systematic task can be performed proactively to prevent, or to diminish to
a satisfactory degree, the consequences of the failure?
7. What must be done if a suitable preventive task cannot be found?
20. RCM, FMECA
Effectiveness analysis Example FMECA Worksheet
Responsibility
S O D C
Failure Current Recommended and target
ID Function Effects (severity Cause(s) (occurrence (detection (critical Action taken
mode controls actions completion
rating) rating) rating) characteristic)
date
High Filling
High High of
Liquid Look into
Tundish level level tundish Bjarni E.
aluminium installing a
1 overflo sensor A sensor 5 based 1 4 Ísleifsson
spills on direct switch
w did not failed on laser 06-Apr-2010
floor to cast abort
trip I/O unit level
frose sensor
Severity
A B C D E
Use absolutely the best
5 ID = 1
Occurrence
methods that are cost
justifyable
4
3 Use best known practises
2 ID = 4
1 ID = 2 ID = 3 Maybe even just do nothing
21. RCM, FMECA – The piramite approach
Effectiveness analysis Example FMECA Worksheet
Responsibility
S O D C
Failure Current Recommended and target
ID Function Effects (severity Cause(s) (occurrence (detection (critical Action taken
mode controls actions completion
rating) rating) rating) characteristic)
date
High Filling
High High of
Liquid Look into
Tundish level level tundish Bjarni E.
aluminium installing a
1 overflo sensor A sensor 5 based 1 4 Ísleifsson
spills on direct switch
w did not failed on laser 06-Apr-2010
floor to cast abort
trip I/O unit level
frose sensor
Use absolutely the best
methods that are cost
justifyable
Use best known practises
2
4
Maybe even just do nothing
1
3
22. RCM, FMECA – The 3D piramite approach
Effectiveness analysis Example FMECA Worksheet
Responsibility
S O D C
Failure Current Recommended and target
ID Function Effects (severity Cause(s) (occurrence (detection (critical Action taken
mode controls actions completion
rating) rating) rating) characteristic)
date
High Filling
High High of
Liquid Look into
Tundish level level tundish Bjarni E.
aluminium installing a
1 overflo sensor 1 sensor 5 based 1 3 Ísleifsson
spills on direct switch
w did not failed on laser 06-Apr-2010
floor to cast abort
trip I/O unit level
frose sensor
Use absolutely the best
methods that are cost
Maybe even just do nothing Use best known practises justifyable
1 62 - 64 125
23. TPM, OEE
The definition of OEE
Availability to Produce in the Quality wanted at the correct delivery time
Actual Actual Produced
production production volume in
time volume correct quality
X X = ?%
Planned Planned Actual
production production produced
time volume volume
Availability Production Quality
opportunities opportunities opportunities
? ? ?
24. TPM, 5 times why ?
The simplest and most effective way to tackle problems is 5x why
It is based on asking 5x why? EXAMPLE:
1. Why did 2. Why was 5. Why not?
4. Why was there
the there 3. Why did it The filter was
no lubrication?
machine overload? overheat? dirty
Pump did not
stop? Bearing No lubrication
deliver oil
Overload overheated
90% of the time it is enough to ask 5x
25. TPM, 5S - How much does a wrench cost?
Your tools that you need for your job are numbers, you need to find your tool…
try as quickly as you can to count from 1, 2, etc… up to 30… you get 15 seconds!
26. TPM, 5S - Practical example
Now we have Sorted out all that we do not need in the work station, how
quickly can you find 1, 2, 3… etc. you get 15 seconds!
27. TPM, 5S - Practical example
1 14 4 2 12 26 30
3 23 9 16 5 6 19
15 22 8 18 11 7 28 20
10 17 24 21 29 25 13 27
Now we have Set in order all of what we need in the work station, how quickly
can you find 1, 2, 3… etc. you get 15 seconds!
28. TPM, 5S - Practical example
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Now we have Shined and Standardized all of what we need in the work station,
how quickly can you find 1, 2, 3… etc. you get 15 seconds!
29. TPM, 5S - Practical example
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 14
15 16 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 28 29 30
Now we “just” need to Sustain all of what we need in the work station, it is
amazing how convenient it is to get what you need and not return it! Old habits
die hard
30. TPM, 5S - Practical example
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Lets not forget that there is always room for improvements.
31. TPM, 5S - Practical example
A well organized toolbox
can be quick to pay for itself!
32. Strategies
Strategies, conclusion
Here above we have talked about methods and tools from many strategies and
even the strategies we did not talk about (VDM, REx) also have some great tools that
can be used in an effective way
Maintenance management is not a simple process to control effectively
However by focusing on the right methods and tools you can
achieve great results in a manufacturing facility and set up the
right strategy that can work for your process
33. So what strategy should we choose ?
Strategies Systems Objectives, KPI’s
RCM SAP OEE
TPM Maximo MTBF
VDM JD Edwards PMC
BCM DMM CMH
QBM Many more… SO
Many more… Many more…
34. Now let’s take a look at systems
Strategies Systems Objectives, KPI’s
RCM SAP OEE
TPM Maximo MTBF
VDM JD Edwards PMC
BCM ORACLE eAM CMH
QBM DMM SO
Many more… Many more… Many more…
35. Systems
Before you select a system, define the outcome you want from it, but remember:
A system that solves all of managers problems ...
... does not exist but in the advertisement brochures
A bad manager without a system, will be ...
... a bad manager with a system
A good manager without a system, will be ...
... a better manager with a system
Define your processes first and then choose the system ...
... but be aware of the extreme and specific solutions; how much do you
think a specificly designed car for you would cost? However you can
modify some systems to fit better your specific needs…
36. Just like you can modify a car to better suit your needs
37. What does a system need to do ?
Give access to technical datas
Plan & Schedule
Asset registry
Maintenance procedures
Backlog of work needed to do
Control calibration
Accounting
Project management
Inventory
Condition monitoring & analysis results
Process parameters
Analysis
E-mail, Internet, Report generation ... The list is almost endless ...
38. What type of system is best for us ?
Generally we have BIG systems or small systems that are focused on their core
function
Example SAP is a big system with most functionalities that anyone could think
of ever needing, however there are concerns that it could be too big in some
cases...
There are many small CMMS solutions out there to choose from, however
there are concerns that these systems might be too small in some cases...
There are also examples that we do not have to worry about; what we should
choose, the corporate has already made a decision
In these cases we should just do whatever we can to make it work, whatever the
system
39. Big vs. small
Main benefits of big systems are :
“Everything” is there
Same basic principles throughout the system
When updating the system, you seldomly get conflicts between functions
Main negatives of big systems are :
Designed for many purposes so they can be not very user friendly in many
functions
Main benefits of small systems are :
Most of the time they are user friendly
Specifically designed for the function
Main negatives of small systems are :
When one system is upgraded it can cause conflicts with other systems
40. Systems
Problem :
Company X Project registration Production is not stable
Registered by: Project due date: Next review: 24. June2008
John Doe 15. July2008
The foundation of the project The goals
To make money $$$ 1. Machines
Who is responsible 2. Resources
Who is backing it up 3. People
Who are participating 4. Methods
Current condition Project plan
1. Machines What Who With who Date Comment
2. Resources ... ... ... ... ...
3. People ... ... ... ... ...
4. Methods ... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ...
41. Systems
Problem :
Company X Project registration Production is not stable
Registered by: Project due date: Next review: 24. June2008
John Doe 15. July2008
To make money $$$
Who is responsible
Systems can help here!!!
The foundation of the project The goals
1.
2.
Machines
Resources
Who is backing it up 3. People
Who are participating 4. Methods
Current condition Project plan
1. Machines What Who With who Date Comment
2. Resources ... ... ... ... ...
3. People ... ... ... ... ...
4. Methods ... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ...
42. The workflow of systems in maintenance
Objectives and Work Descripripn
policy Check lists
Deviation
corrected
Time controlled
Analyze Work
Deviation Condition
Warnings controlled Work
Reports
Filled out data
Information to Information
other systems from other
systems
43. Systems of work done
Common ratios Total number
Amount of
Type of work of work %
work orders
orders
Condition monitoring 31 193 16%
Redesign and improvement 2 193 1%
Condition based maintenance 41 193 21%
Failures 107 193 55%
New setup of equipment 5 193 3%
Work orders that are generated from Condition monitoring 1 193 1%
Human mistakes 6 193 3%
100%
General guidelines: This example: Today in many places:
•Condition monitoring 75% •Condition monitoring 17% •Condition monitoring 5%
•Preventive 13% •Preventive 21% •Preventive 25%
•Redesign and improvement 2% •Redesign and improvement 4% •Redesign and improvement 0%
•Failures 5% •Failures 59% •Failures 65%
•Laws 5% •Laws 0% •Laws 5%
44. Registration of data into Maintenance Systems
The registration needs to be clear and disciplined
Numerical data (Analytical analysis)
Time registry
Register spare parts
Measurements
Types of Work Orders
Failure type registration
Etc.
Reports
Information in text format (Objective analysis)
Reports need to answer at least three questions
What failed?
How did it fail?
How was it fixed to prevent it from happening again?
45. What should come out of systems
Data collection to advance maintenance management and maintenance practices to support business
objectives
Objective = 100% -- Success =87%
The cost category The efficiency category The quality category The equipment health category
Objective = 1.024.442$ Objective = 1.3 Objective = 1.0 Objective = 1.4
Reality = 1.527.762$ Reality = 1.1 Reality = 1.1 Reality = 1.0
Success = 67% Success = 118% Success = 91% Success = 71%
Loss of production due to unplanned maintenance (breakdowns)
Objective = 244.442$
Reality = 611.105$
Success = 40% Amount of lost production due to unplanned
inspections
Spare parts cost Objective = 70.000$
Objective =300.000$ Reality =122.221$
Reality =305.552$ Success = 57%
Success = 98%
Amount of lost production due to unknown failure
Labor cost causes
Objective = 350.000$ Objective =160.000$
Reality =458.329$ Reality =244.442$
Success = 76% Success = 65%
Etc Amount of lost production due to known failure
Objective = 130.000$ causes
Reality = 152.776$ Objective = 10.442$
Success = 85% Reality =183.332$
Success = 6%
Etc.
Objective = 4.000$ Bad maintenance
Reality =61.110$ Objective = 1.442$
Inefficient maintenance
Success = 7%
Objective =1.000$ Reality =100.000$
Reality =66.666$ Success = 1%
Success = 2%
Too little lubrication Too much lubrication
Reality =20.000$ Reality =30.000$
Inspection failure Etc.
Wrong assembly
Reality =40.000$ Objective = 8.000$
Reality =60.000$
Reality =16.666$
Etc.
Success = 48% Etc.
Reality =6.667$
Reality =10.000$
LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4 LEVEL 5 LEVEL 6
47. And last but not least, lets look at objectives, KPI’s
Strategies Systems Objectives, KPI’s
RCM SAP OEE
TPM Maximo MTBF
VDM JD Edwards PMC
BCM ORACLE eAM CMH
QBM DMM SO
Many more… Many more… Many more…
48. KPI’s
There are literally hundreds of KPI’s that we can use to measure different
elements of maintenance and reliability
When we choose which ones we use, we should always focus on the ones that
make us better at the moment we are in
We should be careful not to focus on too many at each given moment
SMRP and EFNMS have developed a harmonized document where these KPI’s
are described and compared
The EN 15341 standard is published and if companies want to compare
between each other, this is a good starting point
SMRP has also published many KPI’s that can be used as well
49. KPI’s
The one thing to be aware when comparing KPI’s is to be careful not to
compare apples with oranges
Here below is a sample of the Harmonized KPI’s published by EFNMS and
SMRP
51. Thank you very much for your attention
If you would like to contact me, you are welcome to do so.
Bjarni Ellert Ísleifsson, CMRP
Maintenance Specialist Alcoa Fjarðaál Iceland
bjarni.isleifsson@alcoa.com / bjarniis@gmail.com
http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=8579177&trk=tab_pro
http://bjarniis.wordpress.com
Editor's Notes
Going a little over what I have done so far
Going a little over what I have done so far
A small introduction of Iceland and where the plant I work in is.330.000 people living in Iceland, most of them in the capital area.The area I live in it is about 10.000 people spread ofer a pretty big area, I live in a town of about 3500
A small intdroduction to the Alcoa Fjarðaál Aluminium plant.Design production capacity 345.000 tons per yearActual production capacity around 360.000 tons per year... And climbing Harbour, recieving of Alumina, tanks, distribution system into potsRodding and carbon recycling (Assemble Anodes and Cathodes)Pot line 336 potsCasthouse with 3 main production lines / 7 core processesHarbour, product out
Quick introduction to the product’s we make.The Casthouse has 3 lines, rod / ingot and T-bar / sowRod, from 9,5 to 18,5mm... There is a option to produce 25mmT-bar and Ingot from the same machine, we can produce there specific blends of aluminiumThe rest is Sow’s
That was just a small introduction of myself and where I come from and what I am doing on a day to day bases but let’s focus on why we are here...
A small talk about the choices in strategies, systems and KPI’sOEE MTBFPMC = Preventive Maintenance CostCMH = Corrective Maintenance HoursBSC = Balances Score Card
In this slide focus on why only one… there might be more than one option…Only one Strategy!Only one System!Only one Objective!Production facilities are usually more complex than that... If we brake it down we could say in a Aluminium smelter like I come from we have :Electrical supply, for potsHarbour facilities, to get Alumina to holding tanksAlumina transfer, to potsRod Shop to make Anodes and CathodesTransformation of Alumina into Aluminium, in the potsTransformation of molten Aluminium to whatever product we are making, Sow’s, Ingots or T-bar’s, Wire Rod... Etc.In this relatively simple production process we have 6 different processes, within those 6 different processes we have many types of different emphasys... So is RCM the right strategy for ALL of them... Is SAP the best system for ALL of them... Is OEE the best objective for ALL of them... Maybe... But maybe not... We would need to take a closer look at all of them to define what is best for each part of the process...Electricity is essential as well as transfer of Alumina... So nothing can fail, for a long time there, so what strategy do we choose?However we usually have a good stock of Anodes so we can stop for some time the production there... So what strategy do we choose?
Before we focus on how to choose strategies we might first focus on Why do we do maintenance...Preventive if we are doing work that actually prevents equipment to fail, focus on failure modesCondition monitoring if we can monitor a failure mode and see trend’s towards a failureBreak down maintenance... If it does not affect production when it fails (we might have a spare motor for that function, etc.) than why maintain it?Focus on the cost benefits... Include all costs/losses... Usually the benefits are where the production losses are
No one has however invented the maintenance free production process... At least I have not seen it... So we try and find the most profitable way of maintaining our machines... And yes the maintenance management process can be a VERY profitable process in a manufacturing facility!
Talking about how we can leverage our cash better with good methods and tools to achieve better and financial results with less money spent.
Talking about how we can leverage our cash better with good methods and tools to achieve better and financial results with less money spent.
Discussion about the dream place (Good maintenance, executed well).Point out that maintenance can be done well but executed badly as well as done badly in a very effective way (get things done quickly… finish on time… we need this machine operating NOW…)
Talking about the focus on risk vs. cost… making sure management realises the risk’s of their decisions.It is easy to save money in maintenance by cost cutting and it might not even show in a bad way on KPI’s of maintenance right away, it might even take 1-3 years to have some serious effect, however don’t be fooled… it will hit the company in the end if cost cutting is done in the wrong way… HARD!!!Talk about a known sales strategy to cost cut maintenance for 1-3 years and sell
How should we choose the right one?
Before we go further I would like to point out that we are going to focus on three main areas of Maintenance Management in this lecture, this chapter will focus on Strategies. Then we will talk about Systems and the last part will focus on Objectives, KPI’s...
Within each strategy you will find a set of tools, methods, KPI’s they will want you to use so focus on the methods and tools that fit your application, your production process, your needs... Most strategies are great, have a proven track record and success in industry in some way. The trick is to find the set of methods and tools that are the right ones for your needs...
RCM is sometimes called the Resource Consuming Monster... It is a disciplined way and can take a lot of recourses to get done properly, however if used in a logical way it can be very effective and not so resource consuming...A “short” version has been developed that is called RCM Blitz ... This is also a good strategy to go for, where it applies...
This is more of a FMEA, where you chart the Occurrence and Severity... This is a good tool to see where we should place our focus and what we should do, should we use Condition Monitoring etc.
Here we add Criticality into the chart and we can actually define this any way we want... We just decide for our process what we would like to focus on, if we find it better we just use numbers and multiply them... This is often simpler when you add categories like criticality, cost, production loss... The point is you create a decision chart for what you want and for what best fits your process.
The 3D approach reveals an interesting reality that a score of 1 – 125 (if we set 5x5x5=125 as a cryticality, Occurrance and Severity rating). It can reveal that a neutral approach for all categories might not always apply. Example severity is high = 5 but Occurrance is low = 1 and Criticality is high = 5, it gives us a score of 25! Does that look OK ? Maybe even do nothing ? … in FMECA we most of the time need to have a logical approach… common sense tells us that a high severity and criticality rating of high must force us to move closer to red and there we go into a Balanced Scorecard approach where we are bias to one or more factors in the evaluation.
OEE helps us focus on the right things... Is it availability problems? Is it production problems? Is it quality problems?Do not forget it is always all our problems, not his or them... We all have oppertunities to improve together, co-operation is key to success
Going quickly over a small 5x why example, what can we do to prevent this problem from happening again?
Going through the conclusion points
Main conclusion point
With all those systems out there and all those choices it is helpfull to know that a large portion of implementations fail... There are many reasons for that, however you can make a bad system work... It is possible... It is a lot better to have a good system, however no system should fail because the system is bad... Usually it has more to do with the actual users and how they want to use the systems that they fail rather then the systems themselfs.The system works just as badly as it is designed to do
Go through each point and follow through on next slide.
However designing it from the ground up to your specific needs would be extremely expensive!
Go through the points and discuss them.
Discussion around each pointSAP = System Against People ... SAP = Superior Applications for People
Discuss the pros and cons
Go over the use of A3 system to improveWhat is the foundation of the project to improveWhat is the current conditionWhat are the goals that are wanted to reachList of how to reach those goals
Systems can be used to help with acheving the goals set. Executing the project plan.
Categorise type of work beeing done, the way to categorise is often different from one company to another. Even within one company there can be different understandings of what work falls into what category.
The registration of Analytical data (measurable numbers in any way) needs to be very disciplined and organised to be reliable in the analysis of the data. The registration of Objective data (not measurable, more an evaluation) needs to be clear and decisive, also these data should be taken with caution in analysis because it is a evaluation and one might evaluate something in bad condition while another one might say it is OK.
This is just one example of what should come out of systems... There are a lot of other information that should come out of systems. What one does with it is the real challange, how can we use information to improve? That is the real question.
Easy reports to analyse, act upon for better results later on... And more! A LOT MORE
All our objectives are focused on getting the right things done at the right time with the minimal cost’s and maximum benefit possible... So to put it in short, MAKE AS MUCH PROFIT AS POSSIBLE!!!
Go over points on slide
Discuss points on slide
Information are collected in systems, they are processed and information output systems can help us make great decisions or they can also make us take bad decisions. This all depends greatly on the quality of data put into the system as well as how we interpret the data. It is very important that the data gathering process is of very good quality.