Latest Dallas Fed Energy Slideshow

Updated: May 15, 2017
ENERGY SLIDESHOW
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

ENERGY PRICES
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Brent & WTI Crude OilWTI & Brent Crude Oil
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 5/12/17.
Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate.
SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Brent (May 12 = $48) WTI (May 12 = $47.04)Dollars per barrel
95% confidence
bands for WTI

Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 5/12/17.
Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of
Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices.
SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Henry Hub (May 12 = $3.12) Marcellus (May 12 = $2.68)Dollars per million
British thermal units
95% confidence bands
for Henry Hub

Retail Gasoline & Diesel
NOTES: Prices are for the week of 5/1/17. PADDs are “Petroleum
Administration for Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Retail price per gallon
PADD Gasoline Diesel
1 $2.39 $2.62
1A $2.40 $2.65
1B $2.50 $2.77
1C $2.30 $2.51
2 $2.29 $2.52
3 $2.23 $2.44
4 $2.41 $2.67
5 $2.89 $2.86
U.S. $2.41 $2.58
Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel

GLOBAL PETROLEUM

World Oil Supply & Demand
NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts.
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Million barrels per day
Q1
2017
97.0
96.7
World
production
World
consumption

NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts.
Implied Change in World Oil Stocks
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

OPEC Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast.
OPEC Crude Oil Production
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Apr.
31.71

OECD Commercial Inventories
NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast.
OECD Commercial Oil Inventories
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Million barrels
2010-2014 average
Apr.
3027

OECD Commercial Inventories
NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
World Oil Production Outages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Apr.
1.90
0.63
OPEC
Non-OPEC

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

U.S. Oil Production & Rig CountU.S. Oil & Gas Production
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017
U.S. crude oil production
U.S. natural gas production
Billion cubic feet per day

U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 5/9/17. Rig count
series shows the last weekly count each month.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
U.S. crude oil production
U.S. oil rig count
Number of active rigs
Feb.
9.03
Apr.
697

Gasoline Demand
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Oil & Gas Employment
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Number of jobs (thousands)
Support activities
for oil and gas operations Oil and gas
extraction
Mar.
208.2
Apr.
181.2

Crude Oil & Product Inventories
NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 5/15/17.
Commercial Crude Oil Inventories
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015Million barrels
Mar.
535Feb.
526
Apr.
528

Gasoline Demand
NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 5/15/17.
Natural Gas Inventories
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015Trillion cubic feet
Mar.
2.1
Apr.
2.3Feb.
2.3

Gasoline DemandGasoline Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 5/15/17.
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
Apr.
241
Feb.
251
Mar.
239

Gasoline DemandDistillate Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 5/15/17.
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Mar.
152
Apr.
150
Feb.
163

Gasoline Demand
NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly
traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide.
SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.
Vehicle Miles Traveled
240
245
250
255
260
265
270
275
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billion miles traveled
Feb.
269

Gasoline Demand
NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 5/15/17.
Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied.
Gasoline Consumption
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2017 2016 2015Million barrels per day
Apr.
9.22
Feb.
8.99
Mar.
9.30

REGIONAL ACTIVITY

Texas Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.
Texas Oil & Gas Production
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Texas crude oil production
Texas natural gas production

NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Texas crude oil production
Texas rig count
Number of active rigs
Feb.
3.31
Apr.
437

Texas Mining Sector EmploymentTexas Oil & Gas Employment
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Number of jobs (thousands)
Support activities
for mining
Oil and gas
extraction
Mar.
119.17
92.49

Crude Oil Production by State
NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for Feb. 2017.

Natural Gas Production by State
NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for Feb. 2017.
Series depicted is marketed natural gas production.

Crude Oil Production by Region
NOTE: Series depict estimates after Feb. 2017.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Permian
Basin
Eagle
Ford
Bakken
Niobrara
Other
areas

Natural Gas Production by Region
NOTE: Series depict estimates after Feb. 2017.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Marcellus-Utica
Permian Basin
Other areas
Haynesville
Eagle Ford

Energy Survey Business Activity
NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity
since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease.
Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values
reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business
activity increased, not changed or decreased?
-42.1
13.8
26.7
40.1 41.8
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Diffusion index

Breakeven Prices for New Wells
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars shows the range of responses. 62
E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What
WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?
Permian
(Midland)
SCOOP/
STACK
Eagle Ford
Permian
(Delaware)
Permian
(Central
Platform)
Other U.S. (non-shale)
Other U.S.
(shale)
$46 $47 $48
$48 $50 $53
$55
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dollars per barrel
13 8 4 10 13 40 8
Number of responses

Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What
WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars shows the range of responses. 60
E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017.
Permian
(Midland)
SCOOP/
STACK
Eagle Ford
Permian
(Delaware)
Permian
(Central
Platform)
Other U.S.
(shale)
Other U.S.
(non-shale)
$24
$27 $29
$33 $33 $35
$38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dollars per barrel
13 7 5 9 11 8 39
Number of responses

Additional Resources
• Energy Indicators
– A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector
• Quarterly Energy Update
– Concise analysis of the latest major developments and key changes facing global oil and gas markets
• Dallas Fed Energy Survey
– A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District
• Energy in the 11th District
– Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin.
• Other energy articles and research
Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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