The U.S. Petrochemical Industry is about to get a wake-up call.

1. Oil & Gas = The Economy
The Economy = Oil & Gas
Bruce LaCour
February 1, 2016
Graphs From “Peak Oil.Com”
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2. OPEC Became a Power in the 1970s
• Conventional oil production in the lower 48 U.S. states
peaked around September 1970.
• An oil crisis began in October 1973 when OPEC proclaimed an
oil embargo. By the end of March 1974, the price of oil had
risen from $3 per barrel to nearly $12. This was a response to
United States support of Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Long lines at the gas stations started to appear.
• The second, more severe, oil shock began in 1979. This
time crude oil price nearly doubled and long lines at the
gas stations reappeared. Oil users then created a natural
gas shortage due to the switch from oil to natural gas,
which also became a problem.
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3. OPEC’s Power Waned in the 1980s
• The oil price peaked in 1981 and started falling again causing
the demand for natural gas to drop.
• By mid 1970s to the late 1980s, nuclear energy became the
“new solution” to the problem of human energy
consumption.
• Energy conservation became an issue in the early 1980s, but
the interest soon disappeared as oil and gas prices declined.
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4. OPEC Regained Control in the 1990s
• The 1990s, except for a slowdown in 1990 to 1992, was a
period of growth with little concern about energy
conservation. Plus the internet is the less energy intensive
new future! Party like its 1999!!! Then 2000 came.
• Natural gas discoveries and pipeline infrastructure around the
world started to make the U.S. “Basic Chemicals” industry less
competitive in the 1990s. Many U.S. Ammonia and Methanol
plants were shutdown by 2005.
• The term “Peak Oil” became an issue and was popularized in
2002 by Colin Campbell and Kjell Aleklett, one a geologist and
the other a Physics professor, and they formed The
Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
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5. The Early Years of the First Decade of the 21st
Century Raised Concerns
• By 2003, the price of natural gas increased rapidly and U.S.
methanol and ammonia production was being replaced by
ammonia and methanol plants in Trinidad. Other places like
Chile, Egypt, Qatar, Indonesia, and China started to provide
increased competition to the natural-gas based
petrochemical industry.
• In 2003, a report by the National Commission on Energy
Policy stated that “…recent trends (in natural gas) indicate the
future supply and demand dynamics for natural gas and
relatively low prices (from 1990 to 2002) may be far different
from the experience of the 1990s, leading many analysts to
conclude that the North American natural gas market has
moved to a permanently higher price level.”
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6. The FED Thought It Could Prop Up The Economy
Forever
• Allen Greenspan’s low interest rate policy and the loose
restrictions on mortgage lending created the housing bubble.
Housing prices peaked in 2006. Increased foreclosures rates
in 2006-2007 among U.S. homeowners led to an August 2008
crisis that nearly shut down the entire financial system.
• The second bubble, housing based on subprime mortgages,
collapsed leading to unprecedented bank bailouts. According
to the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve and
reported to Congress, refusal to bail out the large U.S. banks
would have led to total shutdown of the economy.
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7. Tight Oil and Shale Gas Arrived to Save The Day!
• The beginning of the first part of the third bubble started in
2006 with the “Shale Gas” craze. Natural gas drilling started
to increase significantly in Barnett and later in Fayetteville
and Haynesville plays in response to the rising natural gas
price.
• Ben Bernanke became the next chairman of the Federal
Reserve in February, 2006. He instigated QE1 in November
2008 in response to the bursting of the second bubble.
• In 2009, natural gas production started to skyrocket in the
Haynesville play and six months later in the Marcellus play.
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8. By 2012 A Few Started to Educate about the
True Potential of Tight Oil and Shale Gas
• In its Annual Energy Outlook for 2011, the US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) more than doubled its
estimate of technically recoverable shale gas reserves in US to
827 trillion cubic feet from 353 trillion cubic feet. In the 2012
Outlook, the estimate was lowered back down to 482 trillion
cubic feet.
• In February 2013, one of the many independent analysts
trying to bring sensibility and accurate statistics to the shale
oil-gas craze, J. David Hughes, published “Drill, Baby, Drill”( a
play on the Republican moto) through the Post Carbon
Institute web site. The report was a critical analysis of shale
gas and shale oil (tight oil) and the potential of a shale
revolution.
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9. By 2013 The Concern About Tight Oil and Shale
Gas Began to Increase
• In December 2013, J. David Hughes published “Drilling
California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale” that had
empirical analysis of actual oil production data from the
Monterey Formation. In this report Hughes predicted earlier
what EIA later admitted to about the gross overestimated
recoverable reserves.
• In October 2014, J. David Hughes published “Drilling Deeper”
in which he investigated whether the Department of Energy’s
expectation of long-term domestic oil and natural gas
abundance was founded.
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10. The Petrochemical Industry Ignored Concerns in
2013
• By mid 2013, one announcement after another was being
made for new Louisiana and Texas facilities based on “long-
lasting” low natural gas prices. By 2014, at least five export
LNG plants were announced and several methanol plants.
Announcements for new ammonia plants were popping up all
over the United States.
• Some were calling for a “new petrochemical age” in the U.S.
Shale gas would do wonders!
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11. By 2015 Reality Started to Set In
• By January 2015, the oil price was staying below $50 a barrel
and one oil and gas operation after another announced
capital spending cutbacks and labor reductions. Articles
began to be written about the danger of spreading economic
disaster due to junk bonds associated with the “shale
revolution”.
• The crude oil price remained below $50 a barrel for the entire
year. The Baltic Dry Index began to fall by the Fall of 2015 and
the Chinese economy started showing signs of slowing. The
Baltic Dry Index eventually reached an all-time low in January
2016.
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12. 2016 Starts The Slide Downward
• The first month of 2016 was the worst start for the DJIA in the
modern history. All the industrialized economies and their
stock markets were in decline.
• Both the U.S. tight oil and shale gas production numbers were
in decline, and probably by the end of 2016 many of the
smaller oil and gas operators will either go bankrupt or
consolidate with survivors to join the many that are already
out of business.
• The rest of 2016 will continue to show declines in total U.S.
“crude oil” production.
• Many OPEC countries are in deep financial trouble with a few
on the brink of bankruptcy.
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13. Oil & Gas = The Economy and The Economy = Oil
& Gas
• It should be obvious that oil & gas are the major drivers of the
U.S. economy, not Apple, not Amazon, not Facebook, not
Wal-Mart, and certainly not the Federal bureaucracy. In the
last ten years, the price of crude oil made two trips over the
$100 a barrel mark and the U.S economy crashed both times.
• Now the price of oil is crashing below $30 a barrel and you
read idiotic headlines like “Can $30 Oil Crash the Economy”.
The price of oil is dropping due to the economy starting to
crash in June 2015, not the other way around!
• The lack of demand is the reason for the low price of oil, and
demand will not return until debt destruction has removed all
the weak players from the game. See the next slide.
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14. Increased U.S. Oil Inventory is an Indication of
Lack of Demand Similar to the 1929 Crash
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15. How Does This Play Out?
• First we will have severe deflation. Some say we are headed
for a 1930s type depression. Debt destruction must destroy
overcapacity in all phases of the economy, but especially in
commodities. Oil & gas are the most important commodities.
• The survivors in the oil & gas industry will resume production
eventually; however, future production will never reach 2015
levels again. I believe we will see some type of crude oil
supply shortage before the end of this decade and these
shortage problems will worsen in the next decade.
• In the past, OPEC came back stronger after a period of
economic slowdown, but OPEC is in rapid decline as the next
few graphs will show.
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16. Iraq is the Reason for OPEC Production Increase
Since 2012
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17. Saudi Arabia is Busting at the Seams
• The graph on the previous page (thousand bbls/day) shows
that Iraq is the reason for the production increase from OPEC
since 2012.
• Saudi Arabia (SA) has been laboring for years to try to both kill
“Shale Oil” and keep their populace from revolting. However,
Saudi Arabia and probably the entire Middle East could fall
into total chaos any day now.
• The graph on the next page (thousand bbls/day) shows that
all the billions SA spent to try to ramp up production above
2005-2009 levels resulted in a temporary increase of about
8%, and now the sheiks are trying to outlast U.S. tight oil
producers. They are losing steam fast.
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18. SA Spent billions to Try to Ramp Up Above 2005-
2009 Production Levels
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19. The Rest of OPEC is in Rapid Decline
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20. The Rest of OPEC is in Rapid Decline
• The graph on the previous page (thousand bbls/day on the
left and average crude oil price on the right) shows that the
rest of OPEC (other than Iraq, SA, and UAE) are in rapid
decline. Venezuela especially is in deep trouble, so is Nigeria.
• Starting this year, we will witness a battle between declining
demand for crude oil and declining production as the weak
players start falling out of the game. What happens to the
price of oil will depend on whether demand or supply is in a
steeper decline.
• During this time, U.S. heavy industry, especially the
petrochemical industry, had better operate much more
efficiently because the “good ole days” are over.
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21. Don’t Expect Help From Canada or Mexico
• The usual reply from the “eternal optimists” is that Canada
will come to the rescue. Canada along with the “Tight Oil
Ponzi Scheme” is the reason for the great buildup in U.S.
inventory in the last 18 months. As the next graph shows
Canada is the number one importer, and has been for some
years. However, Canada is already in economic recession and
the great tar sands investment boom won’t return anytime
soon, if ever.
• Canadian oil production is in decline, and the rate of decline
can only increase as the economic slowdown worsens.
• Mexico’s oil production is in decline, and recent events will
ensure an even more rapid decline.
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22. Canada Took First Place in U.S. Imports Years
Ago
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23. Canadian Oil Production is Also Declining
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24. The Payback for “Shale Oil-Gas” Boom is on the
Way
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25. Energy Conservation Will Become the Primary
Concern
• I believe we will see some type of crude oil supply shortage
before the end of this decade and these shortage problems
will worsen in the next decade. The past support from the big
importers will not be available.
• The tremendous increase in U.S. oil production from 2010 as
shown on the previous slide was a result of the loose
monetary policy of the Federal Reserve which benefited only
Wall Street that threw money at every shale oil and gas driller
that could walk and talk. Most of these outfits have never
made what use to be called “profit”. They just drill as long as
Wall Street keeps feeding them. That’s coming to an end
soon.
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26. Now It is Payback Time
• U.S. oil was supposed to be the new Saudi Arabia. Production
almost reached the 1970 peak. Now reality will set in.
However, it is much too late and future generations will be
paying for this period of extreme stupidity for many years to
come.
• I believe energy conservation will become the primary
concern in the third decade of the 21st
century and many will
finally begin to understand the conclusions of the much
ridiculed study “The Limit to Growth” of 1972.
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