Third International Workshop on "Geographical Analysis, Urban Modeling, Spatial Statistics"

3. Cellular Automata land use model Time Loop Transition Rule Change cells to land-use for which they have the highest transition potential until Regional demands are met. & Stochastic perturbation Zoning & & Accessibility Transition-potential = & Suitability Land use & Interaction weights Land use at time T+1

8. Focal presence: Euclidean distance Mean Euclidean Distance

9. Focal structure: Patch size Map Patch size Moving window Difference Root Mean Squared Error

12. Results: Local presence (Kappa) + - 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 Nature 0.81 0.73 0.77 0.77 Business 0.86 0.83 0.85 0.87 Residential 0.91 0.88 0.89 0.91 Agricultural 0.89 0.87 0.88 0.90 Overall Reference Model Reference Model Validation ’96-’00 Calibration ’89-’96

13. Results: Focal presence & structure Calibration period 1989-1996 Validation period 1996-2000 Presence Euclidean Structure Patch size + + - - +