5. A more recent example of the worst case scenario happening is
the 2004 hurricane season in Florida. During the months of
August and September, 4 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan,
Jeanne) hit the state of Florida (the most previously had been 3
in the state of Texas in the late 1880s). This is ignoring tropical
storm Bonnie that hit the panhandle a week before Charley came
through. The eyes of 3 of the 4 hurricanes (all but Ivan, who
tore through the panhandle) passed over Polk County in central
Florida. The probability of 3 hurricanes passing over the same
location in the span of 6 weeks is extremely low. The eyes of
two of the hurricanes (Frances and Jeanne) made landfall on the
east side of Florida within 10 miles of each other. Again, the
probability of this happening 3 weeks apart is very, very small.
To imagine anything more devastating would have been
difficult, making this truly a worst-case scenario…until Katrina
paid a visit to New Orleans and the levees failed!
Lecture Tip: A major misconception about a project’s estimated
NPV at this point is that it depends upon how the cash flows
actually turn out. This thinking misses the point that NPV is an
ex ante valuation of an uncertain future. The distinction
between the valuation of what is expected versus the ex post
value of what transpired is often difficult for students to
appreciate.
A useful analogy for getting this point across is the market
value of a new car. The potential to be a “lemon” is in every
car, as is the possibility of being a “cream puff.” The greater
the likelihood that a car will have problems, the lower the price
will be. The point, however, is that a new car doesn’t have
many different prices right now – one for each conceivable
repair record. Rather, there is one price embodying the different
potential outcomes and their expected value. So it is with NPV
– the potential for good and bad cash flows is reflected in a
single market value.
25. 18565Cash
FlowsYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFF
A0-200000-2000000-200000-2000000-200000-
20000016370063700111149511149512143521435263700637002
11149511149522143521435363700637003111495111495321435
21435463700637004111495111495421435214355637006370051
1149511149552143521435NPV$29,624.24NPV$201,914.52NPV
-$122,731.62Sensitivity Analysis For Unit SalesPro Forma
StatementBaseLowerUpperSales480000440000520000VC36000
0330000390000FC500005000050000Depreciation400004000040
000EBIT300002000040000Taxes630042008 400NI23700158003
1600Cash FlowsYear0-200,000-200,000-
200,0001637005580071600263700558007160036370055800716
0046370055800716005637005580071600NPV$29,624.24$1,146
.51$58,101.98Numbers in blue were computed in Excel.
SensitivityBaseLowerUpperUnit
Sales600055006500Depreciation40000Price per unit807585VC
per unit605862No NWCFC per unit500004500055000Base Case
AnalysisBest CaseWorst CasePro Forma StatementPro Forma
StatementPro Forma
StatementSales480000Sales552500Sales412500VC360000VC37
7000VC341000FC50000FC45000FC55000Depreciation40000De
preciation40000Depreciation40000EBIT30000EBIT90500EBIT-
23500Taxes6300Taxes19005Taxes-4935NI23700NI71495NI-
18565Cash
FlowsYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFF
A0-200000-2000000-200000-2000000-200000-
20000016370063700111149511149512143521435263700637002
11149511149522143521435363700637003111495111495321435
21435463700637004111495111495421435214355637006370051
1149511149552143521435NPV$29,624.24NPV$201,914.52NPV
-$122,731.62Sensitivity Analysis For Unit SalesPro Forma
StatementBaseLowerUpperSales480000440000520000VC36000
0330000390000FC500005000050000Depreciation400004000040
000EBIT300002000040000Taxes630042008400NI23700158003
38. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.14
Section 9.2 (D)
Teaching the payback rule seems to put one in a delicate
situation – as the text indicates, the rule is flawed as an
indicator of project desirability. Yet, past surveys suggest that
practitioners often use it as a secondary decision measure. How
can we explain this apparent discrepancy between theory and
practice? While the payback period is widely used in practice, it
is rarely the primary decision criterion. As William Baumol
pointed out in the early 1960s, the payback rule serves as a
crude “risk screening” device – the longer cash is tied up, the
greater the likelihood that it will not be returned. The payback
period may be helpful when mutually exclusive projects are
compared. Given two similar projects with different paybacks,
the project with the shorter payback is often, but not always, the
better project. Similarly, the bias toward liquidity may be
justifiable in such industries as healthcare, where technology
changes rapidly, requiring quick payback to make machines
justifiable, or in international investments where the possibility
of government seizure of assets exists.
Compute the present value of each cash flow and then determine
how long it takes to pay back on a discounted basis.
Compare to a specified required period.
72. consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.5
Section 6.1 (A)
The students can read the example in the book. It is also
provided here.
You think you will be able to deposit $4,000 at the end of each
of the next three years in a bank account paying 8 percent
interest. You currently have $7,000 in the account. How much
will you have in three years? In four years?
Point out that there are several ways that this can be worked.
The book works this example by rolling the value forward each
year. The presentation will show the second way to work the
problem, finding the future value at the end for each cash flow
and then adding. Point out that you can find the value of a set of
cash flows at any point in time, all you have to do is get the
value of each cash flow at that point in time and then add them
together.
I entered the PV as negative for two reasons. (1) It is a cash
outflow since it is an investment. (2) The FV is computed as
positive, and the students can then just store each calculation
and then add from the memory registers, instead of writing
down all of the numbers and taking the risk of keying something
back into the calculator incorrectly.
Formula:
Today (year 0): FV = 7000(1.08)3 = 8,817.98
76. 5.9
Section 6.1 (B)
The students can read the example in the book.
You are offered an investment that will pay you $200 in one
year, $400 the next year, $600 the next year and $800 at the end
of the fourth year. You can earn 12 percent on very similar
investments. What is the most you should pay for this one?
Point out that the question could also be phrased as “How much
is this investment worth?”
Remember the sign convention. The negative numbers imply
that we would have to pay 1,432.93 today to receive the cash
flows in the future.
Formula:
Year 1 CF: 200 / (1.12)1 = 178.57
Year 2 CF: 400 / (1.12)2 = 318.88
Year 3 CF: 600 / (1.12)3 = 427.07
Year 4 CF: 800 / (1.12)4 = 508.41
Example 6.3 Timeline
0
1
2
3
4
80. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.13
Section 6.1 (B)
The next example will be worked using the cash flow keys.
Note that with the BA-II Plus, the students can double check the
numbers they have entered by pressing the up and down arrows.
It is similar to entering the cash flows into spreadsheet cells.
Other calculators also have cash flow keys. You enter the
information by putting in the cash flow and then pressing CF.
You have to always start with the year 0 cash flow, even if it is
zero.
Remind the students that the cash flows have to occur at even
intervals, so if you skip a year, you still have to enter a 0 cash
flow for that year.
Your broker calls you and tells you that he has this great
investment opportunity.
If you invest $100 today, you will receive $40 in one year and
$75 in two years.
If you require a 15% return on investments of this risk, should
you take the investment?
Use the CF keys to compute the value of the investment.
CF; CF0 = 0; C01 = 40; F01 = 1; C02 = 75; F02 = 1
94. 6C-‹#›
5.31
Section 6.2 (A)
You ran a little short on your spring break vacation, so you put
$1,000 on your credit card. You can only afford to make the
minimum payment of $20 per month. The interest rate on the
credit card is 1.5 percent per month. How long will you need to
pay off the $1,000?
This is an excellent opportunity to talk about credit card debt
and the problems that can develop if it is not handled properly.
Many students don’t understand how it works, and it is rarely
discussed. This is something that students can take away from
the class, even if they aren’t finance majors.
1000 = 20(1 – 1/1.015t) / .015
.75 = 1 – 1 / 1.015t
1 / 1.015t = .25
1 / .25 = 1.015t
t = ln(1/.25) / ln(1.015) = 93.111 months = 7.75 years
Suppose you borrow $2,000 at 5%, and you are going to make
annual payments of $734.42.
How long before you pay off the loan?
Sign convention matters!!!
5 I/Y
2,000 PV
-734.42 PMT
CPT N = 3 years