SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 165
CHAPTER 11
PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Perform and interpret a sensitivity analysis for a proposed
investment
Perform and interpret a scenario analysis for a proposed
investment
Determine and interpret cash, accounting, and financial break-
even points
Explain how the degree of operating leverage can affect the
cash flows of a project
Discuss how capital rationing affects the ability of a company
to accept projects
Key Concepts and Skills
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Evaluating NPV Estimates
Scenario and Other What-If Analyses
Break-Even Analysis
Operating Cash Flow, Sales Volume, and Break-Even
Operating Leverage
Capital Rationing
Chapter Outline
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
NPV estimates are just that – estimates.
A positive NPV is a good start – now we need to take a closer
look.
Forecasting risk – how sensitive is our NPV to changes in the
cash flow estimates; the more sensitive, the greater the
forecasting risk.
Sources of value – why does this project create value?
Evaluating NPV Estimates
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
4
Section 11.1
There are two primary reasons for a positive NPV: (1) we have
constructed a good project or (2) we have done a bad job of
estimating NPV.
Lecture Tip: With the lower flat-tax for corporations, previously
unattractive projects may not have positive NPVs. So, there may
be a one-time exception to the two reasons for finding positive
NPV projects.
Lecture Tip: Perhaps the single largest source of positive NPVs
is the economic concept of monopoly rents – positive profits
that occur from being the only one able or allowed to do
something. Monopoly rents are often associated with patent
rights and technological edges and they quickly disappear in a
competitive market. Introducing this notion in class provides a
springboard for discussions of both business and financial
strategy, as well as for discussion of the application of
economic theory to the real world.
According to Alan Shapiro, the following are project
characteristics associated with positive NPVs.
1) Economies of scale
2) Product differentiation
3) Cost advantages
4) Access to distribution channels
5) Favorable government policy
What happens to the NPV under different cash flow scenarios?
At the very least, look at:
Best case – high revenues, low costs
Worst case – low revenues, high costs
Measures of the range of possible outcomes
Best case and worst case are not necessarily probable, but they
can still be possible.
Scenario Analysis
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
5
Section 11.2 (B)
A good example of the worst case actually happening is the
sinking of the Titanic. There were a lot of little things that went
wrong, none of which were that important by themselves, but in
combination they were deadly.
A more recent example of the worst case scenario happening is
the 2004 hurricane season in Florida. During the months of
August and September, 4 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan,
Jeanne) hit the state of Florida (the most previously had been 3
in the state of Texas in the late 1880s). This is ignoring tropical
storm Bonnie that hit the panhandle a week before Charley came
through. The eyes of 3 of the 4 hurricanes (all but Ivan, who
tore through the panhandle) passed over Polk County in central
Florida. The probability of 3 hurricanes passing over the same
location in the span of 6 weeks is extremely low. The eyes of
two of the hurricanes (Frances and Jeanne) made landfall on the
east side of Florida within 10 miles of each other. Again, the
probability of this happening 3 weeks apart is very, very small.
To imagine anything more devastating would have been
difficult, making this truly a worst-case scenario…until Katrina
paid a visit to New Orleans and the levees failed!
Lecture Tip: A major misconception about a project’s estimated
NPV at this point is that it depends upon how the cash flows
actually turn out. This thinking misses the point that NPV is an
ex ante valuation of an uncertain future. The distinction
between the valuation of what is expected versus the ex post
value of what transpired is often difficult for students to
appreciate.
A useful analogy for getting this point across is the market
value of a new car. The potential to be a “lemon” is in every
car, as is the possibility of being a “cream puff.” The greater
the likelihood that a car will have problems, the lower the price
will be. The point, however, is that a new car doesn’t have
many different prices right now – one for each conceivable
repair record. Rather, there is one price embodying the different
potential outcomes and their expected value. So it is with NPV
– the potential for good and bad cash flows is reflected in a
single market value.
Consider the project discussed in the text in section 11.2.
The initial cost is $200,000, and the project has a 5-year life.
There is no salvage.
Depreciation is straight-line, the required return is 12%, and the
tax rate is 21%.
The base, lower, and upper values are given for unit sales, price
per unit, variable costs per unit, and fixed costs.
Click on the Excel icon to see base case, best case, and worst
case scenarios results.
New Project Example
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
6
Section 11.2 (B)
Click on the Excel icon to go to a spreadsheet that includes both
the scenario analysis and the sensitivity analysis presented in
the book.
ScenarioNet IncomeCash FlowNPVIRRBase
case23,70063,70029,62417.8%Worst Case-18,56521,435-
122,732-17.7%Best Case71,495111,495201,91547.9%
Summary of Scenario Analysis
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
7
Section 11.2 (B)
Lecture Tip: You may wish to integrate this discussion of risk
with some of the topics to be discussed in forthcoming chapters.
The variability between best- and worst-case scenarios is the
essence of forecasting risk. Similarly, we link the risk of a
security with the variability of its expected return. This point
provides another opportunity to link economic theory
(investor/manager rationality versus required returns) with real -
world decision-making. You might also want to point out that
the cases examined in this type of analysis typically aren’t
literally the best and worst cases possible. The true worst-case
scenario is something absurdly unlikely, such as an earthquake
that swallows our production plant. Instead, the worst-case used
in scenario analysis is simply a pessimistic (but possible)
forecast used to develop expected cash flows.
What happens to NPV when we change one variable at a time?
This is a subset of scenario analysis where we are looking at the
effect of specific variables on NPV.
The greater the volatility in NPV in relation to a specific
variable, the larger the forecasting risk associated with that
variable, and the more attention we want to pay to its
estimation.
Sensitivity Analysis
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
8
Section 11.2 (C)
Click on the Excel icon to return to the new project spreadsheet.
If desired, it may be a good point at which to demonstrate the
Solver function in Excel, as you can identify how high/low an
input could go before NPV becomes negative.
ScenarioUnit SalesCash FlowNPVIRRBase
case6,00063,70029,62417.8%Worst case5,50055,800
1,14712.2%Best case6,50071,60058,10223.2%
Summary of Sensitivity Analysis for New Project
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.2 (C)
Using an older standard tax rate of 34%, the worst case scenario
gives a negative NPV. This illustrates that the reduction in
taxes will make some previously unattractive investments
favorable.
9
Simulation is really just an expanded sensitivity and scenario
analysis.
Monte Carlo simulation can estimate thousands of possible
outcomes based on conditional probability distributions and
constraints for each of the variables.
The output is a probability distribution for NPV with an
estimate of the probability of obtaining a positive net present
value.
The simulation only works as well as the information that is
entered, and very bad decisions can be made if care is not taken
to analyze the interaction between variables.
Simulation Analysis
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
10
Section 11.2 (D)
Lecture Tip: A very useful software is Crystal Ball, which is a
simulation package that integrates with Excel. It is relatively
inexpensive, yet it is very useful for basic-to-moderate
simulation analysis. For example, the software allows you to
build models (such as NPV) in Excel, then define the
assumptions behind the inputs (such as distribution, possible
extreme values, etc.), as well as the interaction (i.e.,
correlation) between the inputs. Output is then generated based
on a simulation of 1,000 runs, providing distribution analysis
and numerical summary statistics.
Beware “Paralysis of Analysis”
At some point you have to make a decision.
If the majority of your scenarios have positive NPVs, then you
can feel reasonably comfortable about accepting the project.
If you have a crucial variable that leads to a negative NPV with
a small change in the estimates, then you may want to forego
the project.
Making a Decision
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.2 (D)
11
Common tool for analyzing the relationship between sales
volume and profitability
There are three common break-even measures:
Accounting break-even:
sales volume at which NI = 0
Cash break-even:
sales volume at which OCF = 0
Financial break-even:
sales volume at which NPV = 0
Break-Even Analysis
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.3
12
There are two types of costs that are important in breakeven
analysis: variable and fixed.
Total variable costs = quantity × cost per unit
Fixed costs are constant, regardless of output, over some time
period.
Total costs = fixed + variable = FC + vQ
Example:
Your firm pays $3,000 per month in fixed costs. You also pay
$15 per unit to produce your product.
What is your total cost if you produce 1,000 units?
What if you produce 5,000 units?
Example: Costs
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
13
Section 11.3 (A)
Produce 1000 units: TC = 3000 + 15 × 1000 = 18,000
Produce 5000 units: TC = 3000 + 15 × 5000 = 78,000
Lecture Tip: You may wish to emphasize that, in computing
total variable costs, the only relevant costs are those that are
directly related to the manufacture and sale of the product.
Allocated (or indirect) costs should not enter the analysis.
Suggest to the students that when they are uncertain, they
should use the “with/without” criterion: will the costs be
different if the investment is made? If not, the cost is, by
definition, not directly related to the decision and should not be
included.
Average Cost
TC / # of units
Will decrease as # of units increases
Marginal Cost
The cost to produce one more unit
Same as variable cost per unit
Example: What is the average cost and marginal cost under each
situation in the previous example?
Produce 1,000 units: Average = 18,000 / 1000 = $18
Produce 5,000 units: Average = 78,000 / 5000 = $15.60
Average vs. Marginal Cost
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
14
Section 11.3 (A)
Lecture Tip: Students should recognize that as quantity
increases, total fixed costs remain constant, but on a per unit
basis, they decrease with increasing volume. And, as quantity
increases, total cost per unit approaches variable cost per unit.
If a company expects a high unit sales volume, the company
may desire to exploit the possible economies of scale by
investing more in fixed costs in an effort to lower variable cost
per unit. However, this could create future financial problems if
sales expectations fail to materialize. You might mention that
this sensitivity to earnings declines will be examined later in
this chapter through the discussion of the degree of operating
leverage.
The quantity that leads to a zero net income
NI = (Sales – VC – FC – D)(1 – T) = 0
QP – vQ – FC – D = 0
Q(P – v) = FC + D
Q = (FC + D) / (P – v)
Accounting Break-Even
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.3 (B)
15
Accounting break-even is often used as an early stage screening
number.
If a project cannot break-even on an accounting basis, then it is
not going to be a worthwhile project.
Accounting break-even gives managers an indication of how a
project will impact accounting profit.
Using Accounting Break-Even
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.3 (C)
16
We are more interested in cash flow than we are in accounting
numbers.
As long as a firm has non-cash deductions, there will be a
positive cash flow.
If a firm just breaks even on an accounting basis, cash flow =
depreciation.
If a firm just breaks even on an accounting basis, NPV will
generally be < 0.
Accounting Break-Even and Cash Flow
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.4 (A)
17
Consider the following project:
A new product requires an initial investment of $5 million and
will be depreciated to an expected salvage of zero over 5 years.
The price of the new product is expected to be $25,000, and the
variable cost per unit is $15,000.
The fixed cost is $1 million.
What is the accounting break-even point each year?
Depreciation = 5,000,000 / 5 = 1,000,000
Q = (1,000,000 + 1,000,000)/(25,000 – 15,000) = 200 units
Example
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
18
Section 11.4 (A)
What is the operating cash flow at the accounting break-even
point (ignoring taxes)?
OCF = (S – VC – FC - D) + D
OCF = (200 × 25,000 – 200 × 15,000 – 1,000,000 -1,000,000) +
1,000,000 = 1,000,000
What is the cash break-even quantity (ignoring taxes)?
OCF = [(P-v)Q – FC – D] + D = (P-v)Q – FC
Q = (OCF + FC) / (P – v)
Q = (0 + 1,000,000) / (25,000 – 15,000) = 100 units
Sales Volume and Operating Cash Flow
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
19
Section 11.4 (B)
Cash break-even occurs where operating cash flow = 0.
Accounting Break-even
Where NI = 0
Q = (FC + D)/(P – v)
Cash Break-even
Where OCF = 0
Q = (FC + OCF)/(P – v); (ignoring taxes)
Financial Break-even
Where NPV = 0
Cash BE < Accounting BE < Financial BE
Three Types of Break-Even Analysis
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
20
Section 11.4 (C)
Lecture Tip: Inquisitive students may ask how the computations
change when you include taxes. The equations change as
follows:
OCF = [(P − v)Q − FC − D](1 − T) + D
Use a tax rate = 21% and rework the Wettways example from
the book:
Need 1170 in OCF to break-even on a financial basis
OCF = [(40 − 20)(Q) − 500 − 700](1 − .21) + 700 = 1170
Q = 89.75
You end up with a new quantity of 90 units. The firm must sell
an additional 16 units to offset the effects of taxes. Although,
with the recent tax cuts, this difference is not as large as it
previously was.
Consider the previous example.
Assume a required return of 18%
Accounting break-even = 200
Cash break-even = 100 (ignoring taxes)
What is the financial break-even point (ignoring taxes)?
What OCF (or payment) makes NPV = 0?
N = 5; PV = 5,000,000; I/Y = 18;
CPT PMT = 1,598,889 = OCF
Q = (1,000,000 + 1,598,889) / (25,000 – 15,000)
= 260 units (ignoring taxes)
The question now becomes: Can we sell at least 260 units per
year?
Example: Break-Even Analysis
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
21
Section 11.4 (C)
Assumptions: Cash flows are the same every year, no salvage
and no NWC. If there were salvage and NWC, you would net it
out to year 0 so that all you have in future years is OCF.
Operating leverage is the relationship between sales and
operating cash flow.
Degree of operating leverage measures this relationship.
The higher the DOL, the greater the variability in operating
cash flow.
The higher the fixed costs, the higher the DOL.
DOL depends on the sales level you are starting from.
DOL = 1 + (FC / OCF)
Operating Leverage
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.5
22
Consider the previous example.
Suppose sales are 300 units.
This meets all three break-even measures.
What is the DOL at this sales level?
OCF = (25,000 – 15,000) × 300 – 1,000,000 = 2,000,000
DOL = 1 + 1,000,000 / 2,000,000 = 1.5
What will happen to OCF if unit sales increases by 20%?
Percentage change in OCF = DOL × Percentage change in Q
Percentage change in OCF = 1.5(.2) = .3 or 30%
OCF would increase to 2,000,000(1.3) = 2,600,000
Example: DOL
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.5 (C)
23
Capital rationing occurs when a firm or division has limited
resources.
Soft rationing – the limited resources are temporary, often self-
imposed
Hard rationing – capital will never be available for this project
The profitability index is a useful tool when a manager is faced
with soft rationing.
Capital Rationing
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
24
Section 11.6
If you face hard rationing, you need to reevaluate your analysis.
If you truly estimated the required return and expected cash
flows appropriately and computed a positive NPV, then capital
should be available.
Lecture Tip: In 2008, the economy was suffering from a real
estate and credit crisis. As a result, lenders essentially withdrew
from the market and credit dried up. This is a perfect example
of an issue that would create a situation very close to hard
rationing for many businesses.
Lecture Tip: If lower tax rates result in higher cash flows and
more attractive projects, then the issue of capital rationing will
become even more pronounced.
What is sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and simulation?
Why are these analyses important, and how should they be
used?
What are the three types of break-even analysis, and how should
each be used?
What is the degree of operating leverage?
What is the difference between hard rationing and soft
rationing?
Quick Quiz
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
Section 11.7
25
Is it ethical for a medical patient to pay for a portion of R&D
costs (since experimental procedures are not covered by
insurance) prior to the introduction of the final product?
Is it proper for physicians to recommend this procedure when
they have a vested interest in its usage?
Ethics Issues
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
26
Case: Researchers associated with South Miami Hospital (SMH)
developed a new experimental laser treatment for heart patients.
Its development team and the physicians who use the laser
consider it to be a lifesaving advance. It should be noted that
the physicians who are touting the laser hold a significant stake
in the company that produces the laser. To offer a substitute for
a balloon angioplasty to treat heart blockages, the experimental
laser was developed at a cost of $250,000. SMH estimates that
it will cost $20,000 to install the laser. The procedure requires a
nurse at $50 per hour, a technician at $30 per hour, and a
physician who is paid $750 per hour. Patients are billed $3,000
for the procedure compared to $1,500 for the traditional balloon
treatment.
Now ask the students to determine the break-even quantity for
the new procedure:
Fixed cost = 250,000 + 20,000 = 270,000
Variable cost = 50 + 30 + 750 = 830 per hour
Cash Break-Even = 250,000 / (3,000 – 830) = 115.2 hours,
or approximately 116 patients (assuming a one-hour procedure
per patient).
A project requires an initial investment of $1,000,000 and is
depreciated straight-line to zero salvage over its 10-year life.
The project produces items that sell for $1,000 each, with
variable costs of $700 per unit. Fixed costs are $350,000 per
year.
What is the accounting break-even quantity, operating cash flow
at accounting break-even (ignoring taxes), and DOL at that
output level?
Comprehensive Problem
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
27
Section 11.7
Accounting break-even:
Q = (FC + D) / (P – V) = ($350,000 + $100,000) / ($1,000 -
$700) = 1,500 units
OCF = ( S – VC – FC – D) + D = (1,500 × $1,000 – 1,500 ×
$700 - $350,000 - $100,000) + $100,000 = $100,000
DOL = 1 + (FC / OCF) = 1 + ($350,000 / 100,000) = 4.5
End of Chapter
CHAPTER 11
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
11-‹#›
11-‹#›
Microsoft Excel
97-2003 Worksheet
ScenarioBaseLowerUpperUnit
Sales600055006500Depreciation40000Price per unit807585VC
per unit605862No NWCFC per unit500004500055000Base Case
AnalysisBest CaseWorst CasePro Forma StatementPro Forma
StatementPro Forma
StatementSales480000Sales552500Sales412500VC360000VC37
7000VC341000FC50000FC45000FC55000Depreciation40000De
preciation40000Depreciation40000EBIT30000EBIT90500EBIT-
23500Taxes6300Taxes19005Taxes-4935NI23700NI71495NI-
18565Cash
FlowsYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFF
A0-200000-2000000-200000-2000000-200000-
20000016370063700111149511149512143521435263700637002
11149511149522143521435363700637003111495111495321435
21435463700637004111495111495421435214355637006370051
1149511149552143521435NPV$29,624.24NPV$201,914.52NPV
-$122,731.62Sensitivity Analysis For Unit SalesPro Forma
StatementBaseLowerUpperSales480000440000520000VC36000
0330000390000FC500005000050000Depreciation400004000040
000EBIT300002000040000Taxes630042008 400NI23700158003
1600Cash FlowsYear0-200,000-200,000-
200,0001637005580071600263700558007160036370055800716
0046370055800716005637005580071600NPV$29,624.24$1,146
.51$58,101.98Numbers in blue were computed in Excel.
SensitivityBaseLowerUpperUnit
Sales600055006500Depreciation40000Price per unit807585VC
per unit605862No NWCFC per unit500004500055000Base Case
AnalysisBest CaseWorst CasePro Forma StatementPro Forma
StatementPro Forma
StatementSales480000Sales552500Sales412500VC360000VC37
7000VC341000FC50000FC45000FC55000Depreciation40000De
preciation40000Depreciation40000EBIT30000EBIT90500EBIT-
23500Taxes6300Taxes19005Taxes-4935NI23700NI71495NI-
18565Cash
FlowsYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFF
A0-200000-2000000-200000-2000000-200000-
20000016370063700111149511149512143521435263700637002
11149511149522143521435363700637003111495111495321435
21435463700637004111495111495421435214355637006370051
1149511149552143521435NPV$29,624.24NPV$201,914.52NPV
-$122,731.62Sensitivity Analysis For Unit SalesPro Forma
StatementBaseLowerUpperSales480000440000520000VC36000
0330000390000FC500005000050000Depreciation400004000040
000EBIT300002000040000Taxes630042008400NI23700158003
1600Cash FlowsYear0-200,000-200,000-
200,0001637005580071600263700558007160036370055800716
0046370055800716005637005580071600NPV$29,624.24$1,146
.51$58,101.98Numbers in blue were computed in Excel.
CHAPTER 9
NET PRESENT VALUE AND
OTHER INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Show the reasons why the net present value criterion is the best
way to evaluate proposed investments
Discuss the payback rule and some of its shortcomings
Discuss the discounted payback rule and some of its
shortcomings
Explain accounting rates of return and some of the problems
with them
Present the internal rate of return criterion and its strengths and
weaknesses
Calculate the modified internal rate of return
Illustrate the profitability index and its relation to net present
value
Key Concepts and Skills
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Net Present Value
The Payback Rule
The Discounted Payback
The Average Accounting Return
The Internal Rate of Return
The Profitability Index
The Practice of Capital Budgeting
Chapter Outline
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.3
Lecture Tip: A logical prerequisite to the analysis of investment
opportunities is the creation of investment opportunities. Unlike
the field of investments, where the analyst more or less takes
the investment opportunity set as a given, the field of capital
budgeting relies on the work of people in the areas of
engineering, research and development, information technology
and others for the creation of investment opportunities. As such,
it is important to remind students of the importance of creativity
in this area, as well as the importance of analytical techniques.
We need to ask ourselves the following questions when
evaluating capital budgeting decision rules:
Does the decision rule adjust for the time value of money?
Does the decision rule adjust for risk?
Does the decision rule provide information on whether we are
creating value for the firm?
Good Decision Criteria
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.4
Section 9.1
Economics students will recognize that the practice of capital
budgeting defines the firm’s investment opportunity schedule.
The difference between the market value of a project and its
cost
How much value is created from undertaking an investment?
The first step is to estimate the expected future cash flows.
The second step is to estimate the required return for proj ects of
this risk level.
The third step is to find the present value of the cash flows and
subtract the initial investment.
Net Present Value
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.5
Section 9.1 (A)
We learn how to estimate the cash flows and the required return
in subsequent chapters.
The NPV measures the increase in firm value, which is also the
increase in the value of what the shareholders own. Thus,
making decisions with the NPV rule facilitates the achievement
of our goal in Chapter 1 – making decisions that will maximize
shareholder wealth.
Lecture Tip: Although this point may seem obvious, it is often
helpful to stress the word “net” in net present value. It is not
uncommon for some students to carelessly calculate the PV of a
project’s future cash flows and fail to subtract out its cost (after
all, this is what the programmers of Lotus and Excel did when
they programmed the NPV function). The PV of future cash
flows is not NPV; rather, NPV is the amount remaining after
offsetting the PV of future cash flows with the initial cost.
Thus, the NPV amount determines the incremental value created
by undertaking the investment.
You are reviewing a new project and have estimated the
following cash flows:
Year 0: CF = -165,000
Year 1: CF = 63,120; NI = 13,620
Year 2: CF = 70,800; NI = 3,300
Year 3: CF = 91,080; NI = 29,100
Average Book Value = 72,000
Your required return for assets of this risk level is 12%.
Project Example Information
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.6
Section 9.1 (B)
This example will be used for each of the decision rules so that
the students can compare the different rules and see that
conflicts can arise. This illustrates the importance of
recognizing which decision rules provide the best information
for making decisions that will increase owner wealth.
If the NPV is positive, accept the project.
A positive NPV means that the project is expected to add value
to the firm and will therefore increase the wealth of the owners.
Since our goal is to increase owner wealth, NPV is a direct
measure of how well this project will meet our goal.
NPV – Decision Rule
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.7
Section 9.1 (B)
Lecture Tip: Here’s another perspective on the meaning of NPV.
If we accept a project with a negative NPV of -$2,422, this is
financially equivalent to investing $2,422 today and receiving
nothing in return. Therefore, the total value of the firm would
decrease by $2,422. This assumes that the various components
(cash flow estimates, discount rate, etc.) used in the
computation are correct.
Lecture Tip: In practice, financial managers are rarely presented
with zero NPV projects for at least two reasons. First, in an
abstract sense, zero is just another of the infinite number of
values the NPV can take; as such, the likelihood of obtaining
any particular number is small. Second, and more pragmatically,
in most large firms, capital investment proposals are submitted
to the finance group from other areas for analysis. Those
submitting proposals recognize the ambivalence associated with
zero NPVs and are less likely to send them to the finance group
in the first place.
Using the formulas:
NPV = -165,000 + 63,120/(1.12) + 70,800/(1.12)2 +
91,080/(1.12)3 = 12,627.41
Using the calculator:
CF0 = -165,000; C01 = 63,120; F01 = 1; C02 = 70,800; F02 = 1;
C03 = 91,080; F03 = 1; NPV; I = 12; CPT NPV = 12,627.41
Do we accept or reject the project?
Computing NPV for the Project
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.8
Section 9.1 (B)
Again, the calculator used for the illustration is the TI BA-II
plus. The basic procedure is the same; you start with the year 0
cash flow and then enter the cash flows in order. F01, F02, etc.
are used to set the frequency of a cash flow occurrence. Many
calculators only require you to use this functio n if the frequency
is something other than 1.
Since we have a positive NPV, we should accept the project.
Does the NPV rule account for the time value of money?
Does the NPV rule account for the risk of the cash flows?
Does the NPV rule provide an indication about the increase in
value?
Should we consider the NPV rule for our primary decision rule?
Decision Criteria Test – NPV
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.9
Section 9.1 (B)
The answer to all of these questions is yes.
The risk of the cash flows is accounted for through the choice
of the discount rate.
Lecture Tip: The new tax law contains a provision that allows
firms, in some cases, to take bonus depreciation in year one up
to 100 percent of the cost of the asset. This will, all else equal,
increase the NPV of proposed projects.
Spreadsheets are an excellent way to compute NPVs, especially
when you have to compute the cash flows as well.
Using the NPV function
The first component is the required return entered as a decimal.
The second component is the range of cash flows beginning
with year 1.
Subtract the initial investment after computing the NPV.
Calculating NPVs with a Spreadsheet
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.10
Section 9.1 (B)
Click on the Excel icon to go to an embedded Excel worksheet
that has the cash flows along with the right and wrong way to
compute NPV. Click on the cell with the solution to show the
students the difference in the formulas.
How long does it take to get the initial cost back in a nominal
sense?
Computation
Estimate the cash flows.
Subtract the future cash flows from the initial cost until the
initial investment has been recovered.
Decision Rule – Accept if the payback period is less than some
preset limit.
Payback Period
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.2 (A)
8.11
Assume we will accept the project if it pays back within two
years.
Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120 = 101,880 still to recover
Year 2: 101,880 – 70,800 = 31,080 still to recover
Year 3: 31,080 – 91,080 = -60,000 project pays back in year 3
Do we accept or reject the project?
Computing Payback
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.12
Section 9.2 (A)
The payback period is year 3 if you assume that the cash flows
occur at the end of the year, as we do with all of the other
decision rules.
If we assume that the cash flows occur evenly throughout the
year, then the project pays back in 2.34 years.
Either way, the payback rule would say to reject the project.
Does the payback rule account for the time value of money?
Does the payback rule account for the risk of the cash flows?
Does the payback rule provide an indication about the increase
in value?
Should we consider the payback rule for our primary decision
rule?
Decision Criteria Test – Payback
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.13
Section 9.2 (B)
The answer to all of these questions is no.
Lecture Tip: The payback period can be interpreted as a naïve
form of discounting if we consider the class of investments with
level cash flows over arbitrarily long lives. Since the present
value of a perpetuity is the payment divided by the discount
rate, a payback period cutoff can be seen to imply a cer tain
discount rate. That is:
cost/annual cash flow = payback period cutoff
cost = annual cash flow times payback period cutoff
The PV of a perpetuity is: PV = annual cash flow / R. This
illustrates the inverse relationship between the payback period
cutoff and the discount rate.
Advantages
Easy to understand
Adjusts for uncertainty of later cash flows
Biased toward liquidity
Disadvantages
Ignores the time value of money
Requires an arbitrary cutoff point
Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff date
Biased against long-term projects, such as research and
development, and new projects
Advantages and Disadvantages of Payback
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.14
Section 9.2 (D)
Teaching the payback rule seems to put one in a delicate
situation – as the text indicates, the rule is flawed as an
indicator of project desirability. Yet, past surveys suggest that
practitioners often use it as a secondary decision measure. How
can we explain this apparent discrepancy between theory and
practice? While the payback period is widely used in practice, it
is rarely the primary decision criterion. As William Baumol
pointed out in the early 1960s, the payback rule serves as a
crude “risk screening” device – the longer cash is tied up, the
greater the likelihood that it will not be returned. The payback
period may be helpful when mutually exclusive projects are
compared. Given two similar projects with different paybacks,
the project with the shorter payback is often, but not always, the
better project. Similarly, the bias toward liquidity may be
justifiable in such industries as healthcare, where technology
changes rapidly, requiring quick payback to make machines
justifiable, or in international investments where the possibility
of government seizure of assets exists.
Compute the present value of each cash flow and then determine
how long it takes to pay back on a discounted basis.
Compare to a specified required period.
Decision Rule: Accept the project if it pays back on a
discounted basis within the specified time.
Discounted Payback Period
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.3
8.15
Assume we will accept the project if it pays back on a
discounted basis in 2 years.
Compute the PV for each cash flow and determine the payback
period using discounted cash flows.
Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120/1.121 = 108,643
Year 2: 108,643 – 70,800/1.122 = 52,202
Year 3: 52,202 – 91,080/1.123 = -12,627 project pays back in
year 3
Do we accept or reject the project?
Computing Discounted Payback
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.16
Section 9.3
No – it doesn’t pay back on a discounted basis within the
required 2-year period.
Does the discounted payback rule account for the time value of
money?
Does the discounted payback rule account for the risk of the
cash flows?
Does the discounted payback rule provide an indication about
the increase in value?
Should we consider the discounted payback rule for our primary
decision rule?
Decision Criteria Test – Discounted Payback
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.17
Section 9.3
The answer to the first two questions is yes.
The answer to the third question is no because of the arbitrary
cut-off date.
Since the rule does not indicate whether or not we are creating
value for the firm, it should not be the primary decision rule.
Advantages
Includes time value of money
Easy to understand
Does not accept negative estimated NPV investments when all
future cash flows are positive
Biased towards liquidity
Disadvantages
May reject positive NPV investments
Requires an arbitrary cutoff point
Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff point
Biased against long-term projects, such as R&D and new
products
Advantages and Disadvantages of Discounted Payback
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.3
8.18
There are many different definitions for average accounting
return.
The one used in the book is:
Average net income / average book value
Note that the average book value depends on how the asset is
depreciated.
Need to have a target cutoff rate
Decision Rule: Accept the project if the AAR is greater than a
preset rate.
Average Accounting Return
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.19
Section 9.4
The example in the book uses straight line depreciation to a
zero salvage; that is why you can take the initial investment and
divide by 2. If you use MACRS, you need to compute the BV in
each period and take the average in the standard way.
Assume we require an average accounting return of 25%.
Average Net Income:
(13,620 + 3,300 + 29,100) / 3 = 15,340
AAR = 15,340 / 72,000 = .213 = 21.3%
Do we accept or reject the project?
Computing AAR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.20
Section 9.4
Students may ask where you came up with the 25%. Point out
that this is one of the drawbacks of this rule. There is no good
theory for determining what the return should be. We generally
just use some rule of thumb.
This rule would indicate that we reject the project.
Does the AAR rule account for the time value of money?
Does the AAR rule account for the risk of the cash flows?
Does the AAR rule provide an indication about the increase in
value?
Should we consider the AAR rule for our primary decision rule?
Decision Criteria Test – AAR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.21
Section 9.4
The answer to all of these questions is no. In fact, this rule is
even worse than the payback rule in that it doesn’t even use
cash flows for the analysis. It uses net income and book value.
Thus, it is not surprising that most surveys indicate that few
large firms employ the payback and/or AAR methods
exclusively.
Advantages
Easy to calculate
Needed information will usually be available
Disadvantages
Not a true rate of return; time value of money is ignored
Uses an arbitrary benchmark cutoff rate
Based on accounting net income and book values, not cash
flows and market values
Advantages and Disadvantages of AAR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.22
Section 9.4
Lecture Tip: An alternative view of the AAR is that it is the
micro-level analogue to the ROA discussed in a previous
chapter. As you remember, firm ROA is normally computed as
Firm Net Income / Firm Total Assets. And, it is not uncommon
to employ values averaged over several quarters or years in
order to smooth out this measure. Some analysts ask, “If the
ROA is appropriate for the firm, why is it less appropriate for a
project?” Perhaps the best answer is that whether you compute
the measure for the firm or for a project, you need to recognize
the limitations – it doesn’t account for risk or the time value of
money and it is based on accounting, rather than market, data.
This is the most important alternative to NPV.
It is often used in practice and is intuitively appealing.
It is based entirely on the estimated cash flows and is
independent of interest rates found elsewhere.
Internal Rate of Return
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.23
Section 9.5
The IRR rule is very important. Management, and individuals in
general, often have a much better feel for percentage returns,
and the value that is created, than they do for dollar increases.
A dollar increase doesn’t appear to provide as much information
if we don’t know what the initial expenditure was. Whether or
not the additional information is relevant is another issue.
Definition: IRR is the return that makes the NPV = 0
Decision Rule: Accept the project if the IRR is greater than the
required return.
IRR – Definition and Decision Rule
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.5
8.24
If you do not have a financial calculator, then this becomes a
trial and error process.
Calculator
Enter the cash flows as you did with NPV.
Press IRR and then CPT.
IRR = 16.13% > 12% required return
Do we accept or reject the project?
Computing IRR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.25
Section 9.5
Many of the financial calculators will compute the IRR as soon
as it is pressed; others require that you press compute.
NPV Profile for the Project
IRR = 16.13%
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.26
Section 9.5
Note that the NPV profile is also a form of sensitivity analysis.
NPV00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.180.
20.22600005076042121340312644619324126276323381-5227-
10525-
1553600.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.180
.20.2200.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.18
0.20.2200.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.1
80.20.22
Discount Rate
NPV
Does the IRR rule account for the time value of money?
Does the IRR rule account for the risk of the cash flows?
Does the IRR rule provide an indication about the increase in
value?
Should we consider the IRR rule for our primary decision
criteria?
Decision Criteria Test - IRR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.27
Section 9.5
The answer to all of these questions is yes, although it is not
always as obvious.
The IRR rule accounts for time value because it is finding the
rate of return that equates all of the cash flows on a time value
basis.
The IRR rule accounts for the risk of the cash flows because
you compare it to the required return, which is determined by
the risk of the project.
The IRR rule provides an indication of value because we will
always increase value if we can earn a return greater than our
required return.
We could consider the IRR rule as our primary decision criteria,
but as we will see, it has some problems that the NPV does not
have. That is why we end up choosing the NPV as our ultimate
decision rule.
Knowing a return is intuitively appealing
It is a simple way to communicate the value of a project to
someone who doesn’t know all the estimation details.
If the IRR is high enough, you may not need to estimate a
required return, which is often a difficult task.
Advantages of IRR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.28
Section 9.5
You should point out, however, that if you get a very large IRR
then you should go back and look at your cash flow estimates
again. In competitive markets, extremely high IRRs should be
rare. Also, since the IRR calculation assumes that you can
reinvest future cash flows at the IRR, a high IRR may be
unrealistic.
You start with the cash flows the same as you did for the NPV.
You use the IRR function.
You first enter your range of cash flows, beginning with the
initial cash flow.
You can enter a guess, but it is not necessary.
The default format is a whole percent – you will normally want
to increase the decimal places to at least two.
Calculating IRRs With A Spreadsheet
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.29
Section 9.5
Click on the Excel icon to go to an embedded spreadsheet so
that you can illustrate how to compute IRR on the spreadsheet.
SummaryNet Present ValueAcceptPayback
PeriodRejectDiscounted Payback PeriodRejectAverage
Accounting ReturnRejectInternal Rate of ReturnAccept
Summary of Decisions for the Project
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.30
Section 9.5
So, what should we do?
We have two rules that indicate to accept and three that indicate
to reject.
NPV and IRR will generally give us the same decision.
Exceptions:
Nonconventional cash flows – cash flow signs change more than
once
Mutually exclusive projects
Initial investments are substantially different (issue of scale).
Timing of cash flows is substantially different.
NPV vs. IRR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.5 (A)
8.31
When the cash flows change sign more than once, there is more
than one IRR.
When you solve for IRR you are solving for the root of an
equation, and when you cross the x-axis more than once, there
will be more than one return that solves the equation.
If you have more than one IRR, which one do you use to make
your decision?
IRR and Nonconventional
Cash Flows
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.32
Section 9.5 (A)
Lecture Tip: A good introduction to mutually exclusive projects
and non-conventional cash flows is to provide examples that
students can relate to. An excellent example of mutually
exclusive projects is the choice of which college or university
to attend. Many students apply and are accepted to more than
one college, yet they cannot attend more than one at a time.
Consequently, they have to decide between mutually exclusive
projects.
Nonconventional cash flows and multiple IRRs occur when
there is a net cost to shutting down a project. The most common
examples deal with collecting natural resources. After the
resource has been harvested, there is generally a cost associated
with restoring the environment.
Suppose an investment will cost $90,000 initially and will
generate the following cash flows:
Year 1: 132,000
Year 2: 100,000
Year 3: -150,000
The required return is 15%.
Should we accept or reject the project?
Another Example: Nonconventional Cash Flows
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.33
Section 9.5 (A)
NPV = – 90,000 + 132,000 / 1.15 + 100,000 / (1.15)2 – 150,000
/ (1.15)3 = 1,769.54
Calculator: CF0 = -90,000; C01 = 132,000; F01 = 1; C02 =
100,000; F02 = 1; C03 = -150,000; F03 = 1; I = 15; CPT NPV =
1769.54
If you compute the IRR on the calculator, you get 10.11%
because it is the first one that you come to. So, if you just
blindly use the calculator without recognizing the uneven cash
flows, NPV would say to accept and IRR would say to reject.
Another type of nonconventional cash flow involves a
“financing” project, where there is a positive cash flow
followed by a series of negative cash flows. This is the opposite
of an “investing” project. In this case, our decision rul e
reverses, and we accept a project if the IRR is less than the cost
of capital, since we are borrowing at a lower rate.
NPV Profile
IRR = 10.11% and 42.66%
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.34
Section 9.5 (A)
You should accept the project if the required return is between
10.11% and 42.66%.
NPV00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.5500000000000000
4-8000-3158.41-
52.591769.542638.8928002435.141681.15641.4-605.6-2000-
3496.0200.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.5500000000000
000400.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.550000000000000
0400.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.55000000000000004
Discount Rate
NPV
The NPV is positive at a required return of 15%, so you should
Accept.
If you use the financial calculator, you would get an IRR of
10.11% which would tell you to Reject.
You need to recognize that there are non-conventional cash
flows and look at the NPV profile.
Summary of Decision Rules
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.5 (A)
8.35
Mutually exclusive projects
If you choose one, you can’t choose the other.
Example: You can choose to attend graduate school at either
Harvard or Stanford, but not both.
Intuitively, you would use the following decision rules:
NPV – choose the project with the higher NPV
IRR – choose the project with the higher IRR
IRR and Mutually Exclusive Projects
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.5 (A)
8.36
PeriodProject AProject B0-500-
40013253252325200IRR19.43%22.17%NPV64.0560.74
Example With Mutually
Exclusive Projects
The required return for both projects is 10%.
Which project should you accept and why?
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.37
Section 9.5 (A)
As long as we do not have limited capital, we should choose
project A. Students will often argue that you should choose B
because then you can invest the additional $100 in another good
project, say C. The point is that if we do not have limited
capital, we can invest in A and C and still be better off.
If we have limited capital, then we will need to examine what
combinations of projects with A provide the highest NPV and
what combinations of projects with B provide the highest NPV.
You then go with the set that will create the most value. If you
have limited capital and a large number of mutually exclusive
projects, then you will want to set up a computer program to
determine the best combination of projects within the budget
constraints. The important point is that we DO NOT use IRR to
choose between projects regardless of whether or not we have
limited capital.
Embedded in the analysis, we may want to calculate the NPV of
the incremental project, i.e., the additional CF represented by
project A above project B. The IRR of this CF stream is the
crossover point and provides the return on the incremental
investment.
NPV Profiles
IRR for A = 19.43%
IRR for B = 22.17%
Crossover Point = 11.8%
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.38
Section 9.5 (A)
If the required return is less than the crossover point of 11.8%,
then you should choose A.
If the required return is greater than the crossover point of
11.8%, then you should choose B.
A00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.180.20.
220.24150131.01112.9895.8579.5664.0549.2735.159999999999
99721.78.83-3.47-15.25-
26.53B00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.18
0.20.220.24125110.8697.4184.672.3960.7449.6238.9799999999
9999728.819.0599999999999999.72000000000000060.77-7.83
Discount Rate
NPV
NPV directly measures the increase in value to the firm.
Whenever there is a conflict between NPV and another decision
rule, you should always use NPV.
IRR is unreliable in the following situations:
Nonconventional cash flows
Mutually exclusive projects
Conflicts Between
NPV and IRR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.5 (A)
8.39
Calculate the net present value of all cash outflows using the
borrowing rate.
Calculate the net future value of all cash inflows using the
investing rate.
Find the rate of return that equates these values.
Benefits: single answer and specific rates for borrowing and
reinvestment
Modified IRR
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.40
Section 9.5 (C)
Measures the benefit per unit cost, based on the time value of
money.
A profitability index of 1.1 implies that for every $1 of
investment, we create an additional $0.10 in value.
This measure can be very useful in situations in which we have
limited capital.
Profitability Index
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.6
8.41
Advantages
Closely related to NPV, generally leading to identical decisions
Easy to understand and communicate
May be useful when available investment funds are limited
Disadvantages
May lead to incorrect decisions in comparisons of mutually
exclusive investments
Advantages and Disadvantages of Profitability Index
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.6
8.42
We should consider several investment criteria when making
decisions.
NPV and IRR are the most commonly used primary investment
criteria.
Payback is a commonly used secondary investment criteria.
Capital Budgeting In Practice
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.43
Section 9.7
Even though payback and AAR should not be used to make the
final decision, we should consider the project very carefully if
they suggest rejection. There may be more risk than we have
considered or we may want to pay additional attention to our
cash flow estimations. Sensitivity and scenario analysis can be
used to help us evaluate our cash flows.
The fact that payback is commonly used as a secondary criterion
may be because short paybacks allow firms to have funds sooner
to invest in other projects without going to the capital markets.
Why are smaller firms more likely to use payback as a primary
decision criterion?
Small firms don’t have direct access to the capital markets and
therefore find it more difficult to estimate discount rates based
on funds cost;
the AAR is the project-level equivalent to the ROA measure
used for analyzing firm profitability; and
(3) some small firm decision-makers may be less aware of DCF
approaches than their large firm counterparts.
When managers are judged and rewarded primarily on the basis
of periodic accounting figures, there is an incentive to evaluate
projects with methods such as payback or average accounting
return. On the other hand, when compensation is tied to firm
value, it makes more sense to use NPV as the primary decision
tool.
Net present value
Difference between market value and cost
Take the project if the NPV is positive.
Has no serious problems
Preferred decision criterion
Internal rate of return
Discount rate that makes NPV = 0
Take the project if the IRR is greater than the required return.
Same decision as NPV with conventional cash flows
IRR is unreliable with nonconventional cash flows or mutually
exclusive projects.
Profitability Index
Benefit-cost ratio
Take investment if PI > 1
Cannot be used to rank mutually exclusive projects
May be used to rank projects in the presence of capital rationing
Summary – DCF Criteria
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.44
Section 9.8
For IRR, we assume a conventional investment project. For a
financing project, we accept if the IRR is less than the
“required” rate.
Payback period
Length of time until initial investment is recovered
Take the project if it pays back within some specified period.
Doesn’t account for time value of money, and there is an
arbitrary cutoff period
Discounted payback period
Length of time until initial investment is recovered on a
discounted basis
Take the project if it pays back in some specified period.
There is an arbitrary cutoff period.
Summary – Payback Criteria
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.8
8.45
Average Accounting Return
Measure of accounting profit relative to book value
Similar to return on assets measure
Take the investment if the AAR exceeds some specified return
level.
Serious problems and should not be used
Summary – Accounting Criterion
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
Section 9.8
8.46
Consider an investment that costs $100,000 and has a cash
inflow of $25,000 every year for 5 years. The required return is
9%, and required payback is 4 years.
What is the payback period?
What is the discounted payback period?
What is the NPV?
What is the IRR?
Should we accept the project?
What decision rule should be the primary decision method?
When is the IRR rule unreliable?
Quick Quiz
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.47
Section 9.8
Payback period = 4 years
The project does not pay back on a discounted basis.
NPV = -2,758.72
IRR = 7.93%
An ABC poll in the spring of 2004 found that one-third of
students age 12 – 17 admitted to cheating and the percentage
increased as the students got older and felt more grade pressure.
If a book entitled “How to Cheat: A User’s Guide” would
generate a positive NPV, would it be proper for a publishing
company to offer the new book?
Should a firm exceed the minimum legal limits of government
imposed environmental regulations and be responsible for the
environment, even if this responsibility leads to a wealth
reduction for the firm? Is environmental damage merely a cost
of doing business?
Should municipalities offer monetary incentives to induce firms
to relocate to their areas?
Ethics Issues
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.48
Case 1:
Assume the publishing company has a cost of capital of 8% and
estimates it could sell 10,000 volumes by the end of year one
and 5,000 volumes in each of the following two years. The
immediate printing costs for the 20,000 volumes would be
$20,000. The book would sell for $7.50 per copy and net the
company a profit of $6 per copy after royalties, marketing costs
and taxes. Year one net would be $60,000. From a capital
budgeting standpoint, is it financially wise to buy the
publication rights? What is the NPV of this investment? The
year 0 cash flow is -20,000, year 1 is 60,000, and years 2 and 3
are 30,000 each. Given a cost of capital of 8%, the NPV is just
over $85,000. It looks good, right? Now ask the class if the
publishing of this book would encourage cheating and if the
publishing company would want to be associated with this text
and its message. Some students may feel that one should accept
these profitable investment opportunities, while others might
prefer that the publication of this profitable text be rejected due
to the behavior it could encourage. Although the example is
simplistic, this type of issue is not uncommon and serves as a
starting point for a discussion of the value of “reputational
capital.”
Case 2:
Assume that to comply with the Air Quality Control Act of
1989, a company must install three smoke stack scrubber units
to its ventilation stacks at an installed cost of $355,000 per unit.
An estimated $100,000 per unit in fines could be saved each
year over the five-year life of the ventilation stacks. The cost of
capital is 14% for the firm. The analysis of the investment
results in a NPV of -$35,076. Could investment in a healthier
working environment result in lower long-term costs in the form
of lower future health costs? If so, might this decision result in
an increase in shareholder wealth? Notice that if the answer to
this second question is yes, it suggests that our original analysis
omitted some side benefits to the project.
An investment project has the following cash flows: CF0 = -
1,000,000; C01 – C08 = 200,000 each
If the required rate of return is 12%, what decision should be
made using NPV?
How would the IRR decision rule be used for this project, and
what decision would be reached?
How are the above two decisions related?
Comprehensive Problem
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
8.49
Section 9.8
NPV = -$6,472; reject the project since it would lower the value
of the firm.
IRR = 11.81%, so reject the project since it would tie up
investable funds in a project that will provide insufficient
return.
The NPV and IRR decision rules will provide the same decision
for all independent projects with conventional/normal cash flow
patterns. If a project adds value to the firm (i.e., has a positive
NPV), then it must be expected to provide a return above that
which is required. Both of those justifications are good for
shareholders.
End of Chapter
CHAPTER 9
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
9-‹#›
9-‹#›
Sheet1Year0123Cash Flows-165000631207080091080Required
Return0.12NPV - WRONG$11,274.48NPV - RIGHT$12,627.41
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet1Year0123Cash Flows-165000631207080091080Required
Return0.12NPV - WRONG$11,274.48NPV -
RIGHT$12,627.41IRR16%16.13%Default Format
Sheet2
Sheet3
CHAPTER 6
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION (CALCULATOR)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.1
This version relies primarily on the financial calculator with a
brief presentation of formulas. The calculator discussed is the
TI-BA-II+. The slides are easy to modify for whatever
calculator you prefer.
Determine the future and present value of investments with
multiple cash flows
Explain how loan payments are calculated and how to find the
interest rate on a loan
Describe how loans are amortized or paid off
Show how interest rates are quoted (and misquoted)
Key Concepts and Skills
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Future and Present Values of Multiple Cash Flows
Valuing Level Cash Flows: Annuities and Perpetuities
Comparing Rates: The Effect of Compounding
Loan Types and Loan Amortization
Chapter Outline
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
You think you will be able to deposit $4,000 at the end of each
of the next three years in a bank account paying 8 percent
interest.
You currently have $7,000 in the account.
How much will you have in three years?
How much will you have in four years?
Multiple Cash Flows – FV (Example 6.1)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.1 (A)
5.4
Find the value at year 3 of each cash flow and add them
together.
Today’s (year 0) CF: 3 N; 8 I/Y; -7,000 PV; CPT FV = 8817.98
Year 1 CF: 2 N; 8 I/Y; -4,000 PV; CPT FV = 4,665.60
Year 2 CF: 1 N; 8 I/Y; -4,000 PV; CPT FV = 4,320
Year 3 CF: value = 4,000
Total value in 3 years = 8,817.98 + 4,665.60 + 4,320 + 4,000 =
21,803.58
Value at year 4: 1 N; 8 I/Y; -21,803.58 PV; CPT FV =
23,547.87
Multiple Cash Flows – FV (Example 6.1, CTD.)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.5
Section 6.1 (A)
The students can read the example in the book. It is also
provided here.
You think you will be able to deposit $4,000 at the end of each
of the next three years in a bank account paying 8 percent
interest. You currently have $7,000 in the account. How much
will you have in three years? In four years?
Point out that there are several ways that this can be worked.
The book works this example by rolling the value forward each
year. The presentation will show the second way to work the
problem, finding the future value at the end for each cash flow
and then adding. Point out that you can find the value of a set of
cash flows at any point in time, all you have to do is get the
value of each cash flow at that point in time and then add them
together.
I entered the PV as negative for two reasons. (1) It is a cash
outflow since it is an investment. (2) The FV is computed as
positive, and the students can then just store each calculation
and then add from the memory registers, instead of writing
down all of the numbers and taking the risk of keying something
back into the calculator incorrectly.
Formula:
Today (year 0): FV = 7000(1.08)3 = 8,817.98
Year 1: FV = 4,000(1.08)2 = 4,665.60
Year 2: FV = 4,000(1.08) = 4,320
Year 3: value = 4,000
Total value in 3 years = 8817.98 + 4665.60 + 4320 + 4000 =
21,803.58
Value at year 4 = 21,803.58(1.08) = 23,547.87
Suppose you invest $500 in a mutual fund today and $600 in
one year.
If the fund pays 9% annually, how much will you have in two
years?
Year 0 CF: 2 N; -500 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 594.05
Year 1 CF: 1 N; -600 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 654.00
Total FV = 594.05 + 654.00 = 1,248.05
Multiple Cash Flows – FV Example 2
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.6
Section 6.1 (A)
Formula: FV = 500(1.09)2 + 600(1.09) = 1,248.05
How much will you have in 5 years if you make no further
deposits?
First way:
Year 0 CF: 5 N; -500 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 769.31
Year 1 CF: 4 N; -600 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 846.95
Total FV = 769.31 + 846.95 = 1,616.26
Second way – use value at year 2:
3 N; -1,248.05 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 1,616.26
Multiple Cash Flows – FV Example 2 (ctd.)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.7
Section 6.1 (A)
Formula:
First way: FV = 500(1.09)5 + 600(1.09)4 = 1,616.26
Second way: FV = 1248.05(1.09)3 = 1,616.26
Suppose you plan to deposit $100 into an account in one year
and $300 into the account in three years.
How much will be in the account in five years if the interest
rate is 8%?
Year 1 CF: 4 N; -100 PV; 8 I/Y; CPT FV = 136.05
Year 3 CF: 2 N; -300 PV; 8 I/Y; CPT FV = 349.92
Total FV = 136.05 + 349.92 = 485.97
Multiple Cash Flows – FV Example 3
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.8
Section 6.1 (A)
Formula:
FV = 100(1.08)4 + 300(1.08)2 = 136.05 + 349.92 = 485.97
Find the PV of each cash flow and add them
Year 1 CF: N = 1; I/Y = 12; FV = 200; CPT PV = -178.57
Year 2 CF: N = 2; I/Y = 12; FV = 400; CPT PV = -318.88
Year 3 CF: N = 3; I/Y = 12; FV = 600; CPT PV = -427.07
Year 4 CF: N = 4; I/Y = 12; FV = 800; CPT PV = -508.41
Total PV = 178.57 + 318.88 + 427.07 + 508.41 = 1,432.93
Multiple Cash Flows – pv (Example 6.3)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.9
Section 6.1 (B)
The students can read the example in the book.
You are offered an investment that will pay you $200 in one
year, $400 the next year, $600 the next year and $800 at the end
of the fourth year. You can earn 12 percent on very similar
investments. What is the most you should pay for this one?
Point out that the question could also be phrased as “How much
is this investment worth?”
Remember the sign convention. The negative numbers imply
that we would have to pay 1,432.93 today to receive the cash
flows in the future.
Formula:
Year 1 CF: 200 / (1.12)1 = 178.57
Year 2 CF: 400 / (1.12)2 = 318.88
Year 3 CF: 600 / (1.12)3 = 427.07
Year 4 CF: 800 / (1.12)4 = 508.41
Example 6.3 Timeline
0
1
2
3
4
200
400
600
800
178.57
318.88
427.07
508.41
1,432.93
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.1 (B)
5.10
You can use the PV or FV functions in Excel to find the present
value or future value of a set of cash flows.
Setting the data up is half the battle – if it is set up properly,
then you can just copy the formulas.
Click on the Excel icon for an example.
Multiple Cash Flows Using a Spreadsheet
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.11
Section 6.1 (B)
Click on the tabs at the bottom of the worksheet to move from a
future value example to a present value example.
Lecture Tip: The present value of a series of cash flows depends
heavily on the choice of discount rate. You can easily illustrate
this dependence in the spreadsheet on Slide 6.10 by changing
the cell that contains the discount rate. A separate worksheet on
the slide provides a graph of the relationship between PV and
the discount rate.
You are considering an investment that will pay you $1,000 in
one year, $2,000 in two years, and $3,000 in three years.
If you want to earn 10% on your money, how much would you
be willing to pay?
N = 1; I/Y = 10; FV = 1,000; CPT PV = -909.09
N = 2; I/Y = 10; FV = 2,000; CPT PV = -1,652.89
N = 3; I/Y = 10; FV = 3,000; CPT PV = -2,253.94
PV = 909.09 + 1,652.89 + 2,253.94 = 4,815.93
Multiple Cash Flows – PV Another Example
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.12
Section 6.1 (B)
Formula:
PV = 1000 / (1.1)1 = 909.09
PV = 2000 / (1.1)2 = 1,652.89
PV = 3000 / (1.1)3 = 2,253.94
PV = 909.09 + 1,652.89 + 2,253.94 = 4,815.92
Another way to use the financial calculator for uneven cash
flows is to use the cash flow keys.
Press CF and enter the cash flows beginning with year 0.
You have to press the “Enter” key for each cash flow.
Use the down arrow key to move to the next cash flow.
The “F” is the number of times a given cash flow occurs in
consecutive periods.
Use the NPV key to compute the present value by entering the
interest rate for I, pressing the down arrow, and then computing
the answer.
Clear the cash flow worksheet by pressing CF and then 2nd
CLR Work.
Multiple Uneven Cash Flows – Using the Calculator
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.13
Section 6.1 (B)
The next example will be worked using the cash flow keys.
Note that with the BA-II Plus, the students can double check the
numbers they have entered by pressing the up and down arrows.
It is similar to entering the cash flows into spreadsheet cells.
Other calculators also have cash flow keys. You enter the
information by putting in the cash flow and then pressing CF.
You have to always start with the year 0 cash flow, even if it is
zero.
Remind the students that the cash flows have to occur at even
intervals, so if you skip a year, you still have to enter a 0 cash
flow for that year.
Your broker calls you and tells you that he has this great
investment opportunity.
If you invest $100 today, you will receive $40 in one year and
$75 in two years.
If you require a 15% return on investments of this risk, should
you take the investment?
Use the CF keys to compute the value of the investment.
CF; CF0 = 0; C01 = 40; F01 = 1; C02 = 75; F02 = 1
NPV; I = 15; CPT NPV = 91.49
No – the broker is charging more than you would be willing to
pay.
Decisions, Decisions
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.14
Section 6.1 (B)
You can also use this as an introduction to NPV by having the
students put –100 in for CF0. When they compute the NPV, they
will get –8.51. You can then discuss the NPV rule and point out
that a negative NPV means that you do not earn your required
return. You should also remind them that the sign convention on
the regular TVM keys is NOT the same as getting a negative
NPV.
You are offered the opportunity to put some money away for
retirement.
You will receive five annual payments of $25,000 each
beginning in 40 years.
How much would you be willing to invest today if you desire an
interest rate of 12%?
Use cash flow keys:
CF; CF0 = 0; C01 = 0; F01 = 39; C02 = 25,000; F02 = 5; NPV; I
= 12; CPT NPV = 1,084.71
Saving For Retirement
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.1 (B)
5.15
Saving For Retirement Timeline
0 1 2 … 39 40 41 42 43 44
0 0 0 … 0 25K 25K 25K 25K 25K
Notice that the year 0 cash flow = 0 (CF0 = 0)
The cash flows in years 1 – 39 are 0 (C01 = 0; F01 = 39)
The cash flows in years 40 – 44 are 25,000 (C02 = 25,000; F02
= 5)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.1 (B)
5.16
Suppose you are looking at the following possible cash flows:
Year 1 CF = $100;
Years 2 and 3 CFs = $200;
Years 4 and 5 CFs = $300.
The required discount rate is 7%.
What is the value of the cash flows at year 5?
What is the value of the cash flows today?
What is the value of the cash flows at year 3?
Quick Quiz – Part I
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.17
Section 6.1
The easiest way to work this problem is to use the uneven cash
flow keys and find the present value first and then compute the
others based on that.
CF0 = 0; C01 = 100; F01 = 1; C02 = 200; F02 = 2; C03 = 300;
F03 = 2; I = 7; CPT NPV = 874.17
Value in year 5: PV = 874.17; N = 5; I/Y = 7; CPT FV =
1,226.07
Value in year 3: PV = 874.17; N = 3; I/Y = 7; CPT FV =
1,070.90
Using formulas and one CF at a time:
Year 1 CF: FV5 = 100(1.07)4 = 131.08; PV0 = 100 / 1.07 =
93.46; FV3 = 100(1.07)2 = 114.49
Year 2 CF: FV5 = 200(1.07)3 = 245.01; PV0 = 200 / (1.07)2 =
174.69; FV3 = 200(1.07) = 214
Year 3 CF: FV5 = 200(1.07)2 = 228.98; PV0 = 200 / (1.07)3 =
163.26; FV3 = 200
Year 4 CF: FV5 = 300(1.07) = 321; PV0 = 300 / (1.07)4 =
228.87; PV3 = 300 / 1.07 = 280.37
Year 5 CF: FV5 = 300; PV0 = 300 / (1.07)5 = 213.90; PV3 =
300 / (1.07)2 = 262.03
Value at year 5 = 131.08 + 245.01 + 228.98 + 321 + 300 =
1,226.07
Present value today = 93.46 + 174.69 + 163.26 + 228.87 +
213.90 = 874.18 (difference due to rounding)
Value at year 3 = 114.49 + 214 + 200 + 280.37 + 262.03 =
1,070.89 (difference due to rounding)
Annuity – finite series of equal payments that occur at regular
intervals
If the first payment occurs at the end of the period, it is called
an ordinary annuity.
If the first payment occurs at the beginning of the period, it is
called an annuity due.
Perpetuity – infinite series of equal payments
Annuities and Perpetuities Defined
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2
5.18
Perpetuity: PV = C / r
Annuities:
Annuities and Perpetuities – Basic Formulas
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.19
Section 6.2
Lecture Tip: The annuity factor approach is a short-cut
approach in the process of calculating the present value of
multiple cash flows and it is only applicable to a finite series of
level cash flows. Financial calculators have reduced the need
for annuity factors, but it may still be useful from a conceptual
standpoint to show that the PVIFA is just the sum of the PVIFs
across the same time period.
You can use the PMT key on the calculator for the equal
payment.
The sign convention still holds.
Ordinary annuity versus annuity due
You can switch your calculator between the two types by using
the 2nd BGN 2nd Set on the TI BA-II Plus.
If you see “BGN” or “Begin” in the display of your calculator,
you have it set for an annuity due.
Most problems are ordinary annuities.
Annuities and the Calculator
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.20
Section 6.2
Other calculators also have a key that allows you to switch
between Beg/End.
After carefully going over your budget, you have determined
you can afford to pay $632 per month toward a new sports car.
You call up your local bank and find out that the going rate is 1
percent per month for 48 months.
How much can you borrow?
To determine how much you can borrow, we need to calculate
the present value of $632 per month for 48 months at 1 percent
per month.
Annuity – Example 6.5
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (A)
5.21
You borrow money TODAY so you need to compute the present
value.
48 N; 1 I/Y; -632 PMT; CPT PV = 23,999.54 ($24,000)
Formula:
Annuity – Example 6.5 (ctd.)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.22
Section 6.2 (A)
The students can read the example in the book.
After carefully going over your budget, you have determined
you can afford to pay $632 per month towards a new sports car.
You call up your local bank and find out that the going rate is 1
percent per month for 48 months. How much can you borrow?
Note that the difference between the answer here and the one in
the book is due to the rounding of the Annuity PV factor in the
book.
Suppose you win the Publishers Clearinghouse $10 million
sweepstakes.
The money is paid in equal annual end-of-year installments of
$333,333.33 over 30 years.
If the appropriate discount rate is 5%, how much is the
sweepstakes actually worth today?
30 N; 5 I/Y; 333,333.33 PMT;
CPT PV = 5,124,150.29
Annuity – Sweepstakes Example
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.23
Section 6.2 (A)
Formula:
PV = 333,333.33[1 – 1/1.0530] / .05 = 5,124,150.29
You are ready to buy a house, and you have $20,000 for a down
payment and closing costs.
Closing costs are estimated to be 4% of the loan value.
You have an annual salary of $36,000, and the bank is willing
to allow your monthly mortgage payment to be equal to 28% of
your monthly income.
The interest rate on the loan is 6% per year with monthly
compounding (.5% per month) for a 30-year fixed rate loan.
How much money will the bank loan you?
How much can you offer for the house?
Buying a House
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.24
Section 6.2 (A)
It might be good to note that the outstanding balance on the
loan at any point in time is simply the present value of the
remaining payments.
Bank loan
Monthly income = 36,000 / 12 = 3,000
Maximum payment = .28(3,000) = 840
30×12 = 360 N
.5 I/Y
-840 PMT
CPT PV = 140,105
Total Price
Closing costs = .04(140,105) = 5,604
Down payment = 20,000 – 5,604 = 14,396
Total Price = 140,105 + 14,396 = 154,501
Buying a House (ctd.)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.25
Section 6.2 (A)
You might point out that you would probably not offer 154,501.
The more likely scenario would be 154,500 , or less if you
assumed negotiations would occur.
Formula
PV = 840[1 – 1/1.005360] / .005 = 140,105
The present value and future value formulas in a spreadsheet
include a place for annuity payments.
Click on the Excel icon to see an example.
Annuities on the Spreadsheet – Example
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (A)
5.26
You know the payment amount for a loan, and you want to know
how much was borrowed. Do you compute a present value or a
future value?
You want to receive 5,000 per month in retirement.
If you can earn 0.75% per month and you expect to need the
income for 25 years, how much do you need to have in your
account at retirement?
Quick Quiz – Part II
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.27
Section 6.2 (A)
Calculator
PMT = 5,000; N = 25×12 = 300; I/Y = .75; CPT PV = 595,808
Formula
PV = 5000[1 – 1 / 1.0075300] / .0075 = 595,808
Suppose you want to borrow $20,000 for a new car.
You can borrow at 8% per year, compounded monthly (8/12 =
.66667% per month).
If you take a 4-year loan, what is your monthly payment?
4(12) = 48 N; 20,000 PV; .66667 I/Y; CPT PMT = 488.26
Finding the Payment
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.28
Section 6.2 (A)
Formula
20,000 = PMT[1 – 1 / 1.006666748] / .0066667
PMT = 488.26
Another TVM formula that can be found in a spreadsheet is the
payment formula.
PMT(rate, nper, pv, fv)
The same sign convention holds as for the PV and FV formulas.
Click on the Excel icon for an example.
Finding the Payment on a Spreadsheet
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (A)
5.29
You ran a little short on your spring break vacation, so you put
$1,000 on your credit card.
You can afford only the minimum payment of $20 per month.
The interest rate on the credit card is 1.5 percent per month.
How long will you need to pay off the $1,000?
Finding the Number of Payments – Example 6.6
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (A)
5.30
The sign convention matters!
1.5 I/Y
1,000 PV
-20 PMT
CPT N = 93.111 months = 7.75 years
And this is only if you don’t charge anything more on the card!
Finding the Number of Payments – Example 6.6 (ctd.)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.31
Section 6.2 (A)
You ran a little short on your spring break vacation, so you put
$1,000 on your credit card. You can only afford to make the
minimum payment of $20 per month. The interest rate on the
credit card is 1.5 percent per month. How long will you need to
pay off the $1,000?
This is an excellent opportunity to talk about credit card debt
and the problems that can develop if it is not handled properly.
Many students don’t understand how it works, and it is rarely
discussed. This is something that students can take away from
the class, even if they aren’t finance majors.
1000 = 20(1 – 1/1.015t) / .015
.75 = 1 – 1 / 1.015t
1 / 1.015t = .25
1 / .25 = 1.015t
t = ln(1/.25) / ln(1.015) = 93.111 months = 7.75 years
Suppose you borrow $2,000 at 5%, and you are going to make
annual payments of $734.42.
How long before you pay off the loan?
Sign convention matters!!!
5 I/Y
2,000 PV
-734.42 PMT
CPT N = 3 years
Finding the Number of Payments – Another Example
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.32
Section 6.2 (A)
2000 = 734.42(1 – 1/1.05t) / .05
.136161869 = 1 – 1/1.05t
1/1.05t = .863838131
1.157624287 = 1.05t
t = ln(1.157624287) / ln(1.05) = 3 years
Suppose you borrow $10,000 from your parents to buy a car.
You agree to pay $207.58 per month for 60 months.
What is the monthly interest rate?
Sign convention matters!!!
60 N
10,000 PV
-207.58 PMT
CPT I/Y = .75%
Finding the Rate
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (A)
5.33
Trial and Error Process
Choose an interest rate and compute the PV of the payments
based on this rate.
Compare the computed PV with the actual loan amount.
If the computed PV > loan amount, then the interest rate is too
low.
If the computed PV < loan amount, then the interest rate is too
high.
Adjust the rate and repeat the process until the computed PV
and the loan amount are equal.
Annuity – Finding the Rate Without a Financial Calculator
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (A)
5.34
You want to receive $5,000 per month for the next 5 years.
How much would you need to deposit today if you can earn
0.75% per month?
What monthly rate would you need to earn if you only have
$200,000 to deposit?
Suppose you have $200,000 to deposit and can earn 0.75% per
month.
How many months could you receive the $5,000 payment?
How much could you receive every month for 5 years?
Quick Quiz – Part III
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.35
Section 6.2 (A)
Q1: 5(12) = 60 N; .75 I/Y; 5000 PMT; CPT PV = -240,867
PV = 5000(1 – 1 / 1.007560) / .0075 = 240,867
Q2: -200,000 PV; 60 N; 5000 PMT; CPT I/Y = 1.439%
Trial and error without calculator
Q3: -200,000 PV; .75 I/Y; 5000 PMT; CPT N = 47.73 (47
months plus partial payment in month 48)
200,000 = 5000(1 – 1 / 1.0075t) / .0075
.3 = 1 – 1/1.0075t
1.0075t = 1.428571429
t = ln(1.428571429) / ln(1.0075) = 47.73 months
Q4: -200,000 PV; 60 N; .75 I/Y; CPT PMT = 4,151.67
200,000 = C(1 – 1/1.007560) / .0075
C = 4,151.67
Suppose you begin saving for your retirement by depositing
$2,000 per year in an IRA.
If the interest rate is 7.5%, how much will you have in 40
years?
Remember the sign convention!
40 N
7.5 I/Y
-2,000 PMT
CPT FV = 454,513.04
Future Values for Annuities
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.36
Section 6.2 (B)
FV = 2000(1.07540 – 1)/.075 = 454,513.04
Lecture Tip: It should be emphasized that annuity factor tables
(and the annuity factors in the formulas) assumes that the first
payment occurs one period from the present, with the final
payment at the end of the annuity’s life. If the first payment
occurs at the beginning of the period, then FV’s have one
additional period for compounding and PV’s have one less
period to be discounted. Consequently, you can multiply both
the future value and the present value by (1 + r) to account for
the change in timing.
You are saving for a new house and you put $10,000 per year in
an account paying 8%. The first payment is made today.
How much will you have at the end of 3 years?
2nd BGN 2nd Set (you should see BGN in the display)
3 N
-10,000 PMT
8 I/Y
CPT FV = 35,061.12
2nd BGN 2nd Set (be sure to change it back to an ordinary
annuity)
Annuity Due
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.37
Section 6.2 (C)
Note that the procedure for changing the calculator to an
annuity due is similar on other calculators.
Formula:
FV = 10,000[(1.083 – 1) / .08](1.08) = 35,061.12
What if it were an ordinary annuity? FV = 32,464 (so you
receive an additional 2,597.12 by starting to save today.)
Annuity Due Timeline
0 1 2 3
10000 10000 10000
32,464
35,016.12
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.38
Section 6.2 (C)
If you use the regular annuity formula, the FV will occur at the
same time as the last payment. To get the value at the end of the
third period, you have to take it forward one more period.
Suppose the Fellini Co. wants to sell preferred stock at $100 per
share.
A similar issue of preferred stock already outstanding has a
price of $40 per share and offers a dividend of $1 every quarter.
What dividend will Fellini have to offer if the preferred stock is
going to sell?
Perpetuity – Example 6.7
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (D)
5.39
Perpetuity formula: PV = C / r
Current required return:
40 = 1 / r
r = .025 or 2.5% per quarter
Dividend for new preferred:
100 = C / .025
C = 2.50 per quarter
Perpetuity – Example 6.7 (ctd.)
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.40
Section 6.2 (D)
This is a good preview to the valuation issues discussed in
future chapters. The price of an investment is just the present
value of expected future cash flows.
Example statement:
Suppose the Fellini Co. wants to sell preferred stock at $100 per
share. A very similar issue of preferred stock already
outstanding has a price of $40 per share and offers a dividend of
$1 every quarter. What dividend will Fellini have to offer if the
preferred stock is going to sell?
You want to have $1 million to use for retirement in 35 years.
If you can earn 1% per month, how much do you need to deposit
on a monthly basis if the first payment is made in one month?
What if the first payment is made today?
You are considering preferred stock that pays a quarterly
dividend of $1.50.
If your desired return is 3% per quarter, how much would you
be willing to pay?
Quick Quiz – Part IV
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
5.41
Section 6.2 (D)
Q1: 35(12) = 420 N; 1,000,000 FV; 1 I/Y; CPT PMT = 155.50
1,000,000 = C (1.01420 – 1) / .01
C = 155.50
Q2:Set calculator to annuity due and use the same inputs as
above. CPT PMT = 153.96
The payments would be smaller by one period’s interest. Divide
the above result by 1.01.
1,000,000 = C[(1.01420 – 1) / .01] ( 1.01)
C = 153.96
Q3: PV = 1.50 / .03 = $50
Another online financial calculator can be found at
MoneyChimp.
Go to the website and work the following example.
Choose calculator and then annuity
You just inherited $5 million. If you can earn 6% on your
money, how much can you withdraw each year for the next 40
years?
MoneyChimp assumes annuity due!
Payment = $313,497.81
Work the Web Example
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (D)
5.42
Table 6.2
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (D)
5.43
A growing stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity
Growing Annuity
Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
6C-‹#›
Section 6.2 (E)
5.44
A defined-benefit retirement plan offers to pay $20,000 per year
for 40 years and increase the annual payment by three-percent
each year. What is the present value at retirement if the
discount rate is 10 percent?
Growing Annuity: Example
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc
CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc

More Related Content

Similar to CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc

Capital budgeting and risk ii
Capital budgeting and risk   iiCapital budgeting and risk   ii
Capital budgeting and risk iiUzma Yzaii
 
TVA p3 RISK ... LESSONS LEARNED ... OR NOT!
TVA p3 RISK ... LESSONS LEARNED ... OR NOT!TVA p3 RISK ... LESSONS LEARNED ... OR NOT!
TVA p3 RISK ... LESSONS LEARNED ... OR NOT!Peter Burgess
 
John Gutfranski, CFP, AIF, CRPC & Debra White Stephens, CFP – Proactive Advis...
John Gutfranski, CFP, AIF, CRPC & Debra White Stephens, CFP – Proactive Advis...John Gutfranski, CFP, AIF, CRPC & Debra White Stephens, CFP – Proactive Advis...
John Gutfranski, CFP, AIF, CRPC & Debra White Stephens, CFP – Proactive Advis...Proactive Advisor Magazine
 
2015 CLRS - Reserving in High Inflation
2015 CLRS - Reserving in High Inflation2015 CLRS - Reserving in High Inflation
2015 CLRS - Reserving in High InflationAlejandro Ortega
 
TVA p3 RISK examples and lessons learned 151022
TVA p3 RISK examples and lessons learned 151022TVA p3 RISK examples and lessons learned 151022
TVA p3 RISK examples and lessons learned 151022Peter Burgess
 
Using Cross Asset Information To Improve Portfolio Risk Estimation
Using Cross Asset Information To Improve Portfolio Risk EstimationUsing Cross Asset Information To Improve Portfolio Risk Estimation
Using Cross Asset Information To Improve Portfolio Risk Estimationyamanote
 
Outline March 2014
Outline March 2014Outline March 2014
Outline March 2014Redington
 
Benefits Management – a fool’s errand?
Benefits Management – a fool’s errand?Benefits Management – a fool’s errand?
Benefits Management – a fool’s errand?grantpn
 
1. Payback Period and Net Present Value[LO1, 2] If a project with .docx
1. Payback Period and Net Present Value[LO1, 2] If a project with .docx1. Payback Period and Net Present Value[LO1, 2] If a project with .docx
1. Payback Period and Net Present Value[LO1, 2] If a project with .docxpaynetawnya
 

Similar to CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc (14)

Chap009.ppt
Chap009.pptChap009.ppt
Chap009.ppt
 
Capital budgeting and risk ii
Capital budgeting and risk   iiCapital budgeting and risk   ii
Capital budgeting and risk ii
 
TVA p3 RISK ... LESSONS LEARNED ... OR NOT!
TVA p3 RISK ... LESSONS LEARNED ... OR NOT!TVA p3 RISK ... LESSONS LEARNED ... OR NOT!
TVA p3 RISK ... LESSONS LEARNED ... OR NOT!
 
KMV model
KMV modelKMV model
KMV model
 
Capital budgeting
Capital budgetingCapital budgeting
Capital budgeting
 
Ch 12
Ch 12Ch 12
Ch 12
 
John Gutfranski, CFP, AIF, CRPC & Debra White Stephens, CFP – Proactive Advis...
John Gutfranski, CFP, AIF, CRPC & Debra White Stephens, CFP – Proactive Advis...John Gutfranski, CFP, AIF, CRPC & Debra White Stephens, CFP – Proactive Advis...
John Gutfranski, CFP, AIF, CRPC & Debra White Stephens, CFP – Proactive Advis...
 
2015 CLRS - Reserving in High Inflation
2015 CLRS - Reserving in High Inflation2015 CLRS - Reserving in High Inflation
2015 CLRS - Reserving in High Inflation
 
TVA p3 RISK examples and lessons learned 151022
TVA p3 RISK examples and lessons learned 151022TVA p3 RISK examples and lessons learned 151022
TVA p3 RISK examples and lessons learned 151022
 
Using Cross Asset Information To Improve Portfolio Risk Estimation
Using Cross Asset Information To Improve Portfolio Risk EstimationUsing Cross Asset Information To Improve Portfolio Risk Estimation
Using Cross Asset Information To Improve Portfolio Risk Estimation
 
Outline March 2014
Outline March 2014Outline March 2014
Outline March 2014
 
Capital budgetingtraining
Capital budgetingtrainingCapital budgetingtraining
Capital budgetingtraining
 
Benefits Management – a fool’s errand?
Benefits Management – a fool’s errand?Benefits Management – a fool’s errand?
Benefits Management – a fool’s errand?
 
1. Payback Period and Net Present Value[LO1, 2] If a project with .docx
1. Payback Period and Net Present Value[LO1, 2] If a project with .docx1. Payback Period and Net Present Value[LO1, 2] If a project with .docx
1. Payback Period and Net Present Value[LO1, 2] If a project with .docx
 

More from EstelaJeffery653

Individual ProjectMedical TechnologyWed, 9617Num.docx
Individual ProjectMedical TechnologyWed, 9617Num.docxIndividual ProjectMedical TechnologyWed, 9617Num.docx
Individual ProjectMedical TechnologyWed, 9617Num.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual ProjectThe Post-Watergate EraWed, 3817Numeric.docx
Individual ProjectThe Post-Watergate EraWed, 3817Numeric.docxIndividual ProjectThe Post-Watergate EraWed, 3817Numeric.docx
Individual ProjectThe Post-Watergate EraWed, 3817Numeric.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual ProjectArticulating the Integrated PlanWed, 31.docx
Individual ProjectArticulating the Integrated PlanWed, 31.docxIndividual ProjectArticulating the Integrated PlanWed, 31.docx
Individual ProjectArticulating the Integrated PlanWed, 31.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Multilingualism Guidelines1)Where did the a.docx
Individual Multilingualism Guidelines1)Where did the a.docxIndividual Multilingualism Guidelines1)Where did the a.docx
Individual Multilingualism Guidelines1)Where did the a.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Implementation Strategiesno new messagesObjectives.docx
Individual Implementation Strategiesno new messagesObjectives.docxIndividual Implementation Strategiesno new messagesObjectives.docx
Individual Implementation Strategiesno new messagesObjectives.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Refine and Finalize WebsiteDueJul 02View m.docx
Individual Refine and Finalize WebsiteDueJul 02View m.docxIndividual Refine and Finalize WebsiteDueJul 02View m.docx
Individual Refine and Finalize WebsiteDueJul 02View m.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Cultural Communication Written Assignment  (Worth 20 of .docx
Individual Cultural Communication Written Assignment  (Worth 20 of .docxIndividual Cultural Communication Written Assignment  (Worth 20 of .docx
Individual Cultural Communication Written Assignment  (Worth 20 of .docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual ProjectThe Basic Marketing PlanWed, 3117N.docx
Individual ProjectThe Basic Marketing PlanWed, 3117N.docxIndividual ProjectThe Basic Marketing PlanWed, 3117N.docx
Individual ProjectThe Basic Marketing PlanWed, 3117N.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual ProjectFinancial Procedures in a Health Care Organiza.docx
Individual ProjectFinancial Procedures in a Health Care Organiza.docxIndividual ProjectFinancial Procedures in a Health Care Organiza.docx
Individual ProjectFinancial Procedures in a Health Care Organiza.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Expanded Website PlanView more »Expand view.docx
Individual Expanded Website PlanView more  »Expand view.docxIndividual Expanded Website PlanView more  »Expand view.docx
Individual Expanded Website PlanView more »Expand view.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Expanded Website PlanDueJul 02View more .docx
Individual Expanded Website PlanDueJul 02View more .docxIndividual Expanded Website PlanDueJul 02View more .docx
Individual Expanded Website PlanDueJul 02View more .docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Communicating to Management Concerning Information Syste.docx
Individual Communicating to Management Concerning Information Syste.docxIndividual Communicating to Management Concerning Information Syste.docx
Individual Communicating to Management Concerning Information Syste.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Case Analysis-MatavIn max 4 single-spaced total pag.docx
Individual Case Analysis-MatavIn max 4 single-spaced total pag.docxIndividual Case Analysis-MatavIn max 4 single-spaced total pag.docx
Individual Case Analysis-MatavIn max 4 single-spaced total pag.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Individual Assignment Report Format• Report should contain not m.docx
Individual Assignment Report Format• Report should contain not m.docxIndividual Assignment Report Format• Report should contain not m.docx
Individual Assignment Report Format• Report should contain not m.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Include LOCO api that allows user to key in an address and get the d.docx
Include LOCO api that allows user to key in an address and get the d.docxInclude LOCO api that allows user to key in an address and get the d.docx
Include LOCO api that allows user to key in an address and get the d.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Include the title, the name of the composer (if known) and of the .docx
Include the title, the name of the composer (if known) and of the .docxInclude the title, the name of the composer (if known) and of the .docx
Include the title, the name of the composer (if known) and of the .docxEstelaJeffery653
 
include as many events as possible to support your explanation of th.docx
include as many events as possible to support your explanation of th.docxinclude as many events as possible to support your explanation of th.docx
include as many events as possible to support your explanation of th.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
Incorporate the suggestions that were provided by your fellow projec.docx
Incorporate the suggestions that were provided by your fellow projec.docxIncorporate the suggestions that were provided by your fellow projec.docx
Incorporate the suggestions that were provided by your fellow projec.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
inal ProjectDUE Jun 25, 2017 1155 PMGrade DetailsGradeNA.docx
inal ProjectDUE Jun 25, 2017 1155 PMGrade DetailsGradeNA.docxinal ProjectDUE Jun 25, 2017 1155 PMGrade DetailsGradeNA.docx
inal ProjectDUE Jun 25, 2017 1155 PMGrade DetailsGradeNA.docxEstelaJeffery653
 
include 1page proposal- short introduction to research paper and yo.docx
include 1page proposal- short introduction to research paper and yo.docxinclude 1page proposal- short introduction to research paper and yo.docx
include 1page proposal- short introduction to research paper and yo.docxEstelaJeffery653
 

More from EstelaJeffery653 (20)

Individual ProjectMedical TechnologyWed, 9617Num.docx
Individual ProjectMedical TechnologyWed, 9617Num.docxIndividual ProjectMedical TechnologyWed, 9617Num.docx
Individual ProjectMedical TechnologyWed, 9617Num.docx
 
Individual ProjectThe Post-Watergate EraWed, 3817Numeric.docx
Individual ProjectThe Post-Watergate EraWed, 3817Numeric.docxIndividual ProjectThe Post-Watergate EraWed, 3817Numeric.docx
Individual ProjectThe Post-Watergate EraWed, 3817Numeric.docx
 
Individual ProjectArticulating the Integrated PlanWed, 31.docx
Individual ProjectArticulating the Integrated PlanWed, 31.docxIndividual ProjectArticulating the Integrated PlanWed, 31.docx
Individual ProjectArticulating the Integrated PlanWed, 31.docx
 
Individual Multilingualism Guidelines1)Where did the a.docx
Individual Multilingualism Guidelines1)Where did the a.docxIndividual Multilingualism Guidelines1)Where did the a.docx
Individual Multilingualism Guidelines1)Where did the a.docx
 
Individual Implementation Strategiesno new messagesObjectives.docx
Individual Implementation Strategiesno new messagesObjectives.docxIndividual Implementation Strategiesno new messagesObjectives.docx
Individual Implementation Strategiesno new messagesObjectives.docx
 
Individual Refine and Finalize WebsiteDueJul 02View m.docx
Individual Refine and Finalize WebsiteDueJul 02View m.docxIndividual Refine and Finalize WebsiteDueJul 02View m.docx
Individual Refine and Finalize WebsiteDueJul 02View m.docx
 
Individual Cultural Communication Written Assignment  (Worth 20 of .docx
Individual Cultural Communication Written Assignment  (Worth 20 of .docxIndividual Cultural Communication Written Assignment  (Worth 20 of .docx
Individual Cultural Communication Written Assignment  (Worth 20 of .docx
 
Individual ProjectThe Basic Marketing PlanWed, 3117N.docx
Individual ProjectThe Basic Marketing PlanWed, 3117N.docxIndividual ProjectThe Basic Marketing PlanWed, 3117N.docx
Individual ProjectThe Basic Marketing PlanWed, 3117N.docx
 
Individual ProjectFinancial Procedures in a Health Care Organiza.docx
Individual ProjectFinancial Procedures in a Health Care Organiza.docxIndividual ProjectFinancial Procedures in a Health Care Organiza.docx
Individual ProjectFinancial Procedures in a Health Care Organiza.docx
 
Individual Expanded Website PlanView more »Expand view.docx
Individual Expanded Website PlanView more  »Expand view.docxIndividual Expanded Website PlanView more  »Expand view.docx
Individual Expanded Website PlanView more »Expand view.docx
 
Individual Expanded Website PlanDueJul 02View more .docx
Individual Expanded Website PlanDueJul 02View more .docxIndividual Expanded Website PlanDueJul 02View more .docx
Individual Expanded Website PlanDueJul 02View more .docx
 
Individual Communicating to Management Concerning Information Syste.docx
Individual Communicating to Management Concerning Information Syste.docxIndividual Communicating to Management Concerning Information Syste.docx
Individual Communicating to Management Concerning Information Syste.docx
 
Individual Case Analysis-MatavIn max 4 single-spaced total pag.docx
Individual Case Analysis-MatavIn max 4 single-spaced total pag.docxIndividual Case Analysis-MatavIn max 4 single-spaced total pag.docx
Individual Case Analysis-MatavIn max 4 single-spaced total pag.docx
 
Individual Assignment Report Format• Report should contain not m.docx
Individual Assignment Report Format• Report should contain not m.docxIndividual Assignment Report Format• Report should contain not m.docx
Individual Assignment Report Format• Report should contain not m.docx
 
Include LOCO api that allows user to key in an address and get the d.docx
Include LOCO api that allows user to key in an address and get the d.docxInclude LOCO api that allows user to key in an address and get the d.docx
Include LOCO api that allows user to key in an address and get the d.docx
 
Include the title, the name of the composer (if known) and of the .docx
Include the title, the name of the composer (if known) and of the .docxInclude the title, the name of the composer (if known) and of the .docx
Include the title, the name of the composer (if known) and of the .docx
 
include as many events as possible to support your explanation of th.docx
include as many events as possible to support your explanation of th.docxinclude as many events as possible to support your explanation of th.docx
include as many events as possible to support your explanation of th.docx
 
Incorporate the suggestions that were provided by your fellow projec.docx
Incorporate the suggestions that were provided by your fellow projec.docxIncorporate the suggestions that were provided by your fellow projec.docx
Incorporate the suggestions that were provided by your fellow projec.docx
 
inal ProjectDUE Jun 25, 2017 1155 PMGrade DetailsGradeNA.docx
inal ProjectDUE Jun 25, 2017 1155 PMGrade DetailsGradeNA.docxinal ProjectDUE Jun 25, 2017 1155 PMGrade DetailsGradeNA.docx
inal ProjectDUE Jun 25, 2017 1155 PMGrade DetailsGradeNA.docx
 
include 1page proposal- short introduction to research paper and yo.docx
include 1page proposal- short introduction to research paper and yo.docxinclude 1page proposal- short introduction to research paper and yo.docx
include 1page proposal- short introduction to research paper and yo.docx
 

Recently uploaded

Separation of Lanthanides/ Lanthanides and Actinides
Separation of Lanthanides/ Lanthanides and ActinidesSeparation of Lanthanides/ Lanthanides and Actinides
Separation of Lanthanides/ Lanthanides and ActinidesFatimaKhan178732
 
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impactAccessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impactdawncurless
 
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communicationInteractive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communicationnomboosow
 
Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application )
Hybridoma Technology  ( Production , Purification , and Application  ) Hybridoma Technology  ( Production , Purification , and Application  )
Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application ) Sakshi Ghasle
 
Call Girls in Dwarka Mor Delhi Contact Us 9654467111
Call Girls in Dwarka Mor Delhi Contact Us 9654467111Call Girls in Dwarka Mor Delhi Contact Us 9654467111
Call Girls in Dwarka Mor Delhi Contact Us 9654467111Sapana Sha
 
Mastering the Unannounced Regulatory Inspection
Mastering the Unannounced Regulatory InspectionMastering the Unannounced Regulatory Inspection
Mastering the Unannounced Regulatory InspectionSafetyChain Software
 
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptxCARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptxGaneshChakor2
 
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptxContemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptxRoyAbrique
 
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️9953056974 Low Rate Call Girls In Saket, Delhi NCR
 
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxIntroduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxpboyjonauth
 
Paris 2024 Olympic Geographies - an activity
Paris 2024 Olympic Geographies - an activityParis 2024 Olympic Geographies - an activity
Paris 2024 Olympic Geographies - an activityGeoBlogs
 
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)eniolaolutunde
 
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website AppURLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website AppCeline George
 
Concept of Vouching. B.Com(Hons) /B.Compdf
Concept of Vouching. B.Com(Hons) /B.CompdfConcept of Vouching. B.Com(Hons) /B.Compdf
Concept of Vouching. B.Com(Hons) /B.CompdfUmakantAnnand
 
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK  LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdfBASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK  LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdfSoniaTolstoy
 
Organic Name Reactions for the students and aspirants of Chemistry12th.pptx
Organic Name Reactions  for the students and aspirants of Chemistry12th.pptxOrganic Name Reactions  for the students and aspirants of Chemistry12th.pptx
Organic Name Reactions for the students and aspirants of Chemistry12th.pptxVS Mahajan Coaching Centre
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Separation of Lanthanides/ Lanthanides and Actinides
Separation of Lanthanides/ Lanthanides and ActinidesSeparation of Lanthanides/ Lanthanides and Actinides
Separation of Lanthanides/ Lanthanides and Actinides
 
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impactAccessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
 
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communicationInteractive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
 
Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application )
Hybridoma Technology  ( Production , Purification , and Application  ) Hybridoma Technology  ( Production , Purification , and Application  )
Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application )
 
Call Girls in Dwarka Mor Delhi Contact Us 9654467111
Call Girls in Dwarka Mor Delhi Contact Us 9654467111Call Girls in Dwarka Mor Delhi Contact Us 9654467111
Call Girls in Dwarka Mor Delhi Contact Us 9654467111
 
Mastering the Unannounced Regulatory Inspection
Mastering the Unannounced Regulatory InspectionMastering the Unannounced Regulatory Inspection
Mastering the Unannounced Regulatory Inspection
 
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptxCARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
 
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptxContemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
 
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
 
9953330565 Low Rate Call Girls In Rohini Delhi NCR
9953330565 Low Rate Call Girls In Rohini  Delhi NCR9953330565 Low Rate Call Girls In Rohini  Delhi NCR
9953330565 Low Rate Call Girls In Rohini Delhi NCR
 
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxIntroduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
 
Paris 2024 Olympic Geographies - an activity
Paris 2024 Olympic Geographies - an activityParis 2024 Olympic Geographies - an activity
Paris 2024 Olympic Geographies - an activity
 
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
 
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
 
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website AppURLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
 
Concept of Vouching. B.Com(Hons) /B.Compdf
Concept of Vouching. B.Com(Hons) /B.CompdfConcept of Vouching. B.Com(Hons) /B.Compdf
Concept of Vouching. B.Com(Hons) /B.Compdf
 
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK  LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdfBASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK  LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
 
Organic Name Reactions for the students and aspirants of Chemistry12th.pptx
Organic Name Reactions  for the students and aspirants of Chemistry12th.pptxOrganic Name Reactions  for the students and aspirants of Chemistry12th.pptx
Organic Name Reactions for the students and aspirants of Chemistry12th.pptx
 
TataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdf
TataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdfTataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdf
TataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdf
 
Staff of Color (SOC) Retention Efforts DDSD
Staff of Color (SOC) Retention Efforts DDSDStaff of Color (SOC) Retention Efforts DDSD
Staff of Color (SOC) Retention Efforts DDSD
 

CHAPTER 11PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATIONCopyright © 2019 Mc

  • 1. CHAPTER 11 PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Perform and interpret a sensitivity analysis for a proposed investment Perform and interpret a scenario analysis for a proposed investment Determine and interpret cash, accounting, and financial break- even points Explain how the degree of operating leverage can affect the cash flows of a project Discuss how capital rationing affects the ability of a company to accept projects
  • 2. Key Concepts and Skills Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Evaluating NPV Estimates Scenario and Other What-If Analyses Break-Even Analysis Operating Cash Flow, Sales Volume, and Break-Even Operating Leverage Capital Rationing Chapter Outline Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› NPV estimates are just that – estimates. A positive NPV is a good start – now we need to take a closer look.
  • 3. Forecasting risk – how sensitive is our NPV to changes in the cash flow estimates; the more sensitive, the greater the forecasting risk. Sources of value – why does this project create value? Evaluating NPV Estimates Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 4 Section 11.1 There are two primary reasons for a positive NPV: (1) we have constructed a good project or (2) we have done a bad job of estimating NPV. Lecture Tip: With the lower flat-tax for corporations, previously unattractive projects may not have positive NPVs. So, there may be a one-time exception to the two reasons for finding positive NPV projects. Lecture Tip: Perhaps the single largest source of positive NPVs is the economic concept of monopoly rents – positive profits that occur from being the only one able or allowed to do something. Monopoly rents are often associated with patent rights and technological edges and they quickly disappear in a competitive market. Introducing this notion in class provides a springboard for discussions of both business and financial strategy, as well as for discussion of the application of economic theory to the real world.
  • 4. According to Alan Shapiro, the following are project characteristics associated with positive NPVs. 1) Economies of scale 2) Product differentiation 3) Cost advantages 4) Access to distribution channels 5) Favorable government policy What happens to the NPV under different cash flow scenarios? At the very least, look at: Best case – high revenues, low costs Worst case – low revenues, high costs Measures of the range of possible outcomes Best case and worst case are not necessarily probable, but they can still be possible. Scenario Analysis Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 5 Section 11.2 (B) A good example of the worst case actually happening is the sinking of the Titanic. There were a lot of little things that went wrong, none of which were that important by themselves, but in combination they were deadly.
  • 5. A more recent example of the worst case scenario happening is the 2004 hurricane season in Florida. During the months of August and September, 4 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) hit the state of Florida (the most previously had been 3 in the state of Texas in the late 1880s). This is ignoring tropical storm Bonnie that hit the panhandle a week before Charley came through. The eyes of 3 of the 4 hurricanes (all but Ivan, who tore through the panhandle) passed over Polk County in central Florida. The probability of 3 hurricanes passing over the same location in the span of 6 weeks is extremely low. The eyes of two of the hurricanes (Frances and Jeanne) made landfall on the east side of Florida within 10 miles of each other. Again, the probability of this happening 3 weeks apart is very, very small. To imagine anything more devastating would have been difficult, making this truly a worst-case scenario…until Katrina paid a visit to New Orleans and the levees failed! Lecture Tip: A major misconception about a project’s estimated NPV at this point is that it depends upon how the cash flows actually turn out. This thinking misses the point that NPV is an ex ante valuation of an uncertain future. The distinction between the valuation of what is expected versus the ex post value of what transpired is often difficult for students to appreciate. A useful analogy for getting this point across is the market value of a new car. The potential to be a “lemon” is in every car, as is the possibility of being a “cream puff.” The greater the likelihood that a car will have problems, the lower the price will be. The point, however, is that a new car doesn’t have many different prices right now – one for each conceivable repair record. Rather, there is one price embodying the different potential outcomes and their expected value. So it is with NPV – the potential for good and bad cash flows is reflected in a single market value.
  • 6. Consider the project discussed in the text in section 11.2. The initial cost is $200,000, and the project has a 5-year life. There is no salvage. Depreciation is straight-line, the required return is 12%, and the tax rate is 21%. The base, lower, and upper values are given for unit sales, price per unit, variable costs per unit, and fixed costs. Click on the Excel icon to see base case, best case, and worst case scenarios results. New Project Example Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 6 Section 11.2 (B) Click on the Excel icon to go to a spreadsheet that includes both the scenario analysis and the sensitivity analysis presented in the book. ScenarioNet IncomeCash FlowNPVIRRBase case23,70063,70029,62417.8%Worst Case-18,56521,435- 122,732-17.7%Best Case71,495111,495201,91547.9% Summary of Scenario Analysis Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 7. 11-‹#› 7 Section 11.2 (B) Lecture Tip: You may wish to integrate this discussion of risk with some of the topics to be discussed in forthcoming chapters. The variability between best- and worst-case scenarios is the essence of forecasting risk. Similarly, we link the risk of a security with the variability of its expected return. This point provides another opportunity to link economic theory (investor/manager rationality versus required returns) with real - world decision-making. You might also want to point out that the cases examined in this type of analysis typically aren’t literally the best and worst cases possible. The true worst-case scenario is something absurdly unlikely, such as an earthquake that swallows our production plant. Instead, the worst-case used in scenario analysis is simply a pessimistic (but possible) forecast used to develop expected cash flows. What happens to NPV when we change one variable at a time? This is a subset of scenario analysis where we are looking at the effect of specific variables on NPV. The greater the volatility in NPV in relation to a specific variable, the larger the forecasting risk associated with that variable, and the more attention we want to pay to its estimation. Sensitivity Analysis Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
  • 8. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 8 Section 11.2 (C) Click on the Excel icon to return to the new project spreadsheet. If desired, it may be a good point at which to demonstrate the Solver function in Excel, as you can identify how high/low an input could go before NPV becomes negative. ScenarioUnit SalesCash FlowNPVIRRBase case6,00063,70029,62417.8%Worst case5,50055,800 1,14712.2%Best case6,50071,60058,10223.2% Summary of Sensitivity Analysis for New Project Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Section 11.2 (C) Using an older standard tax rate of 34%, the worst case scenario gives a negative NPV. This illustrates that the reduction in taxes will make some previously unattractive investments favorable. 9
  • 9. Simulation is really just an expanded sensitivity and scenario analysis. Monte Carlo simulation can estimate thousands of possible outcomes based on conditional probability distributions and constraints for each of the variables. The output is a probability distribution for NPV with an estimate of the probability of obtaining a positive net present value. The simulation only works as well as the information that is entered, and very bad decisions can be made if care is not taken to analyze the interaction between variables. Simulation Analysis Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 10 Section 11.2 (D) Lecture Tip: A very useful software is Crystal Ball, which is a simulation package that integrates with Excel. It is relatively inexpensive, yet it is very useful for basic-to-moderate simulation analysis. For example, the software allows you to build models (such as NPV) in Excel, then define the assumptions behind the inputs (such as distribution, possible extreme values, etc.), as well as the interaction (i.e., correlation) between the inputs. Output is then generated based on a simulation of 1,000 runs, providing distribution analysis
  • 10. and numerical summary statistics. Beware “Paralysis of Analysis” At some point you have to make a decision. If the majority of your scenarios have positive NPVs, then you can feel reasonably comfortable about accepting the project. If you have a crucial variable that leads to a negative NPV with a small change in the estimates, then you may want to forego the project. Making a Decision Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Section 11.2 (D) 11 Common tool for analyzing the relationship between sales volume and profitability There are three common break-even measures: Accounting break-even: sales volume at which NI = 0 Cash break-even: sales volume at which OCF = 0
  • 11. Financial break-even: sales volume at which NPV = 0 Break-Even Analysis Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Section 11.3 12 There are two types of costs that are important in breakeven analysis: variable and fixed. Total variable costs = quantity × cost per unit Fixed costs are constant, regardless of output, over some time period. Total costs = fixed + variable = FC + vQ Example: Your firm pays $3,000 per month in fixed costs. You also pay $15 per unit to produce your product. What is your total cost if you produce 1,000 units? What if you produce 5,000 units? Example: Costs Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#›
  • 12. 13 Section 11.3 (A) Produce 1000 units: TC = 3000 + 15 × 1000 = 18,000 Produce 5000 units: TC = 3000 + 15 × 5000 = 78,000 Lecture Tip: You may wish to emphasize that, in computing total variable costs, the only relevant costs are those that are directly related to the manufacture and sale of the product. Allocated (or indirect) costs should not enter the analysis. Suggest to the students that when they are uncertain, they should use the “with/without” criterion: will the costs be different if the investment is made? If not, the cost is, by definition, not directly related to the decision and should not be included. Average Cost TC / # of units Will decrease as # of units increases Marginal Cost The cost to produce one more unit Same as variable cost per unit Example: What is the average cost and marginal cost under each situation in the previous example? Produce 1,000 units: Average = 18,000 / 1000 = $18 Produce 5,000 units: Average = 78,000 / 5000 = $15.60 Average vs. Marginal Cost Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 13. 11-‹#› 14 Section 11.3 (A) Lecture Tip: Students should recognize that as quantity increases, total fixed costs remain constant, but on a per unit basis, they decrease with increasing volume. And, as quantity increases, total cost per unit approaches variable cost per unit. If a company expects a high unit sales volume, the company may desire to exploit the possible economies of scale by investing more in fixed costs in an effort to lower variable cost per unit. However, this could create future financial problems if sales expectations fail to materialize. You might mention that this sensitivity to earnings declines will be examined later in this chapter through the discussion of the degree of operating leverage. The quantity that leads to a zero net income NI = (Sales – VC – FC – D)(1 – T) = 0 QP – vQ – FC – D = 0 Q(P – v) = FC + D Q = (FC + D) / (P – v) Accounting Break-Even Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 14. 11-‹#› Section 11.3 (B) 15 Accounting break-even is often used as an early stage screening number. If a project cannot break-even on an accounting basis, then it is not going to be a worthwhile project. Accounting break-even gives managers an indication of how a project will impact accounting profit. Using Accounting Break-Even Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Section 11.3 (C) 16 We are more interested in cash flow than we are in accounting numbers. As long as a firm has non-cash deductions, there will be a positive cash flow.
  • 15. If a firm just breaks even on an accounting basis, cash flow = depreciation. If a firm just breaks even on an accounting basis, NPV will generally be < 0. Accounting Break-Even and Cash Flow Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Section 11.4 (A) 17 Consider the following project: A new product requires an initial investment of $5 million and will be depreciated to an expected salvage of zero over 5 years. The price of the new product is expected to be $25,000, and the variable cost per unit is $15,000. The fixed cost is $1 million. What is the accounting break-even point each year? Depreciation = 5,000,000 / 5 = 1,000,000 Q = (1,000,000 + 1,000,000)/(25,000 – 15,000) = 200 units Example Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 16. 11-‹#› 18 Section 11.4 (A) What is the operating cash flow at the accounting break-even point (ignoring taxes)? OCF = (S – VC – FC - D) + D OCF = (200 × 25,000 – 200 × 15,000 – 1,000,000 -1,000,000) + 1,000,000 = 1,000,000 What is the cash break-even quantity (ignoring taxes)? OCF = [(P-v)Q – FC – D] + D = (P-v)Q – FC Q = (OCF + FC) / (P – v) Q = (0 + 1,000,000) / (25,000 – 15,000) = 100 units Sales Volume and Operating Cash Flow Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 19 Section 11.4 (B) Cash break-even occurs where operating cash flow = 0. Accounting Break-even
  • 17. Where NI = 0 Q = (FC + D)/(P – v) Cash Break-even Where OCF = 0 Q = (FC + OCF)/(P – v); (ignoring taxes) Financial Break-even Where NPV = 0 Cash BE < Accounting BE < Financial BE Three Types of Break-Even Analysis Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 20 Section 11.4 (C) Lecture Tip: Inquisitive students may ask how the computations change when you include taxes. The equations change as follows: OCF = [(P − v)Q − FC − D](1 − T) + D Use a tax rate = 21% and rework the Wettways example from the book: Need 1170 in OCF to break-even on a financial basis OCF = [(40 − 20)(Q) − 500 − 700](1 − .21) + 700 = 1170 Q = 89.75
  • 18. You end up with a new quantity of 90 units. The firm must sell an additional 16 units to offset the effects of taxes. Although, with the recent tax cuts, this difference is not as large as it previously was. Consider the previous example. Assume a required return of 18% Accounting break-even = 200 Cash break-even = 100 (ignoring taxes) What is the financial break-even point (ignoring taxes)? What OCF (or payment) makes NPV = 0? N = 5; PV = 5,000,000; I/Y = 18; CPT PMT = 1,598,889 = OCF Q = (1,000,000 + 1,598,889) / (25,000 – 15,000) = 260 units (ignoring taxes) The question now becomes: Can we sell at least 260 units per year? Example: Break-Even Analysis Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 21 Section 11.4 (C) Assumptions: Cash flows are the same every year, no salvage
  • 19. and no NWC. If there were salvage and NWC, you would net it out to year 0 so that all you have in future years is OCF. Operating leverage is the relationship between sales and operating cash flow. Degree of operating leverage measures this relationship. The higher the DOL, the greater the variability in operating cash flow. The higher the fixed costs, the higher the DOL. DOL depends on the sales level you are starting from. DOL = 1 + (FC / OCF) Operating Leverage Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Section 11.5 22 Consider the previous example. Suppose sales are 300 units. This meets all three break-even measures. What is the DOL at this sales level? OCF = (25,000 – 15,000) × 300 – 1,000,000 = 2,000,000 DOL = 1 + 1,000,000 / 2,000,000 = 1.5 What will happen to OCF if unit sales increases by 20%? Percentage change in OCF = DOL × Percentage change in Q
  • 20. Percentage change in OCF = 1.5(.2) = .3 or 30% OCF would increase to 2,000,000(1.3) = 2,600,000 Example: DOL Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› Section 11.5 (C) 23 Capital rationing occurs when a firm or division has limited resources. Soft rationing – the limited resources are temporary, often self- imposed Hard rationing – capital will never be available for this project The profitability index is a useful tool when a manager is faced with soft rationing. Capital Rationing Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#›
  • 21. 24 Section 11.6 If you face hard rationing, you need to reevaluate your analysis. If you truly estimated the required return and expected cash flows appropriately and computed a positive NPV, then capital should be available. Lecture Tip: In 2008, the economy was suffering from a real estate and credit crisis. As a result, lenders essentially withdrew from the market and credit dried up. This is a perfect example of an issue that would create a situation very close to hard rationing for many businesses. Lecture Tip: If lower tax rates result in higher cash flows and more attractive projects, then the issue of capital rationing will become even more pronounced. What is sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and simulation? Why are these analyses important, and how should they be used? What are the three types of break-even analysis, and how should each be used? What is the degree of operating leverage? What is the difference between hard rationing and soft rationing? Quick Quiz Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 22. 11-‹#› Section 11.7 25 Is it ethical for a medical patient to pay for a portion of R&D costs (since experimental procedures are not covered by insurance) prior to the introduction of the final product? Is it proper for physicians to recommend this procedure when they have a vested interest in its usage? Ethics Issues Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 26 Case: Researchers associated with South Miami Hospital (SMH) developed a new experimental laser treatment for heart patients. Its development team and the physicians who use the laser consider it to be a lifesaving advance. It should be noted that the physicians who are touting the laser hold a significant stake in the company that produces the laser. To offer a substitute for a balloon angioplasty to treat heart blockages, the experimental laser was developed at a cost of $250,000. SMH estimates that it will cost $20,000 to install the laser. The procedure requires a nurse at $50 per hour, a technician at $30 per hour, and a
  • 23. physician who is paid $750 per hour. Patients are billed $3,000 for the procedure compared to $1,500 for the traditional balloon treatment. Now ask the students to determine the break-even quantity for the new procedure: Fixed cost = 250,000 + 20,000 = 270,000 Variable cost = 50 + 30 + 750 = 830 per hour Cash Break-Even = 250,000 / (3,000 – 830) = 115.2 hours, or approximately 116 patients (assuming a one-hour procedure per patient). A project requires an initial investment of $1,000,000 and is depreciated straight-line to zero salvage over its 10-year life. The project produces items that sell for $1,000 each, with variable costs of $700 per unit. Fixed costs are $350,000 per year. What is the accounting break-even quantity, operating cash flow at accounting break-even (ignoring taxes), and DOL at that output level? Comprehensive Problem Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 27 Section 11.7 Accounting break-even:
  • 24. Q = (FC + D) / (P – V) = ($350,000 + $100,000) / ($1,000 - $700) = 1,500 units OCF = ( S – VC – FC – D) + D = (1,500 × $1,000 – 1,500 × $700 - $350,000 - $100,000) + $100,000 = $100,000 DOL = 1 + (FC / OCF) = 1 + ($350,000 / 100,000) = 4.5 End of Chapter CHAPTER 11 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 11-‹#› 11-‹#› Microsoft Excel 97-2003 Worksheet ScenarioBaseLowerUpperUnit Sales600055006500Depreciation40000Price per unit807585VC per unit605862No NWCFC per unit500004500055000Base Case AnalysisBest CaseWorst CasePro Forma StatementPro Forma StatementPro Forma StatementSales480000Sales552500Sales412500VC360000VC37 7000VC341000FC50000FC45000FC55000Depreciation40000De preciation40000Depreciation40000EBIT30000EBIT90500EBIT- 23500Taxes6300Taxes19005Taxes-4935NI23700NI71495NI-
  • 25. 18565Cash FlowsYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFF A0-200000-2000000-200000-2000000-200000- 20000016370063700111149511149512143521435263700637002 11149511149522143521435363700637003111495111495321435 21435463700637004111495111495421435214355637006370051 1149511149552143521435NPV$29,624.24NPV$201,914.52NPV -$122,731.62Sensitivity Analysis For Unit SalesPro Forma StatementBaseLowerUpperSales480000440000520000VC36000 0330000390000FC500005000050000Depreciation400004000040 000EBIT300002000040000Taxes630042008 400NI23700158003 1600Cash FlowsYear0-200,000-200,000- 200,0001637005580071600263700558007160036370055800716 0046370055800716005637005580071600NPV$29,624.24$1,146 .51$58,101.98Numbers in blue were computed in Excel. SensitivityBaseLowerUpperUnit Sales600055006500Depreciation40000Price per unit807585VC per unit605862No NWCFC per unit500004500055000Base Case AnalysisBest CaseWorst CasePro Forma StatementPro Forma StatementPro Forma StatementSales480000Sales552500Sales412500VC360000VC37 7000VC341000FC50000FC45000FC55000Depreciation40000De preciation40000Depreciation40000EBIT30000EBIT90500EBIT- 23500Taxes6300Taxes19005Taxes-4935NI23700NI71495NI- 18565Cash FlowsYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFFAYearOCFNCSCFF A0-200000-2000000-200000-2000000-200000- 20000016370063700111149511149512143521435263700637002 11149511149522143521435363700637003111495111495321435 21435463700637004111495111495421435214355637006370051 1149511149552143521435NPV$29,624.24NPV$201,914.52NPV -$122,731.62Sensitivity Analysis For Unit SalesPro Forma StatementBaseLowerUpperSales480000440000520000VC36000 0330000390000FC500005000050000Depreciation400004000040 000EBIT300002000040000Taxes630042008400NI23700158003
  • 26. 1600Cash FlowsYear0-200,000-200,000- 200,0001637005580071600263700558007160036370055800716 0046370055800716005637005580071600NPV$29,624.24$1,146 .51$58,101.98Numbers in blue were computed in Excel. CHAPTER 9 NET PRESENT VALUE AND OTHER INVESTMENT CRITERIA Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Show the reasons why the net present value criterion is the best way to evaluate proposed investments Discuss the payback rule and some of its shortcomings Discuss the discounted payback rule and some of its shortcomings
  • 27. Explain accounting rates of return and some of the problems with them Present the internal rate of return criterion and its strengths and weaknesses Calculate the modified internal rate of return Illustrate the profitability index and its relation to net present value Key Concepts and Skills Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Net Present Value The Payback Rule The Discounted Payback The Average Accounting Return The Internal Rate of Return The Profitability Index The Practice of Capital Budgeting Chapter Outline Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
  • 28. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.3 Lecture Tip: A logical prerequisite to the analysis of investment opportunities is the creation of investment opportunities. Unlike the field of investments, where the analyst more or less takes the investment opportunity set as a given, the field of capital budgeting relies on the work of people in the areas of engineering, research and development, information technology and others for the creation of investment opportunities. As such, it is important to remind students of the importance of creativity in this area, as well as the importance of analytical techniques. We need to ask ourselves the following questions when evaluating capital budgeting decision rules: Does the decision rule adjust for the time value of money? Does the decision rule adjust for risk? Does the decision rule provide information on whether we are creating value for the firm? Good Decision Criteria Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 29. 9-‹#› 8.4 Section 9.1 Economics students will recognize that the practice of capital budgeting defines the firm’s investment opportunity schedule. The difference between the market value of a project and its cost How much value is created from undertaking an investment? The first step is to estimate the expected future cash flows. The second step is to estimate the required return for proj ects of this risk level. The third step is to find the present value of the cash flows and subtract the initial investment. Net Present Value Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.5 Section 9.1 (A)
  • 30. We learn how to estimate the cash flows and the required return in subsequent chapters. The NPV measures the increase in firm value, which is also the increase in the value of what the shareholders own. Thus, making decisions with the NPV rule facilitates the achievement of our goal in Chapter 1 – making decisions that will maximize shareholder wealth. Lecture Tip: Although this point may seem obvious, it is often helpful to stress the word “net” in net present value. It is not uncommon for some students to carelessly calculate the PV of a project’s future cash flows and fail to subtract out its cost (after all, this is what the programmers of Lotus and Excel did when they programmed the NPV function). The PV of future cash flows is not NPV; rather, NPV is the amount remaining after offsetting the PV of future cash flows with the initial cost. Thus, the NPV amount determines the incremental value created by undertaking the investment. You are reviewing a new project and have estimated the following cash flows: Year 0: CF = -165,000 Year 1: CF = 63,120; NI = 13,620 Year 2: CF = 70,800; NI = 3,300 Year 3: CF = 91,080; NI = 29,100 Average Book Value = 72,000 Your required return for assets of this risk level is 12%. Project Example Information Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 31. 9-‹#› 8.6 Section 9.1 (B) This example will be used for each of the decision rules so that the students can compare the different rules and see that conflicts can arise. This illustrates the importance of recognizing which decision rules provide the best information for making decisions that will increase owner wealth. If the NPV is positive, accept the project. A positive NPV means that the project is expected to add value to the firm and will therefore increase the wealth of the owners. Since our goal is to increase owner wealth, NPV is a direct measure of how well this project will meet our goal. NPV – Decision Rule Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.7 Section 9.1 (B) Lecture Tip: Here’s another perspective on the meaning of NPV. If we accept a project with a negative NPV of -$2,422, this is
  • 32. financially equivalent to investing $2,422 today and receiving nothing in return. Therefore, the total value of the firm would decrease by $2,422. This assumes that the various components (cash flow estimates, discount rate, etc.) used in the computation are correct. Lecture Tip: In practice, financial managers are rarely presented with zero NPV projects for at least two reasons. First, in an abstract sense, zero is just another of the infinite number of values the NPV can take; as such, the likelihood of obtaining any particular number is small. Second, and more pragmatically, in most large firms, capital investment proposals are submitted to the finance group from other areas for analysis. Those submitting proposals recognize the ambivalence associated with zero NPVs and are less likely to send them to the finance group in the first place. Using the formulas: NPV = -165,000 + 63,120/(1.12) + 70,800/(1.12)2 + 91,080/(1.12)3 = 12,627.41 Using the calculator: CF0 = -165,000; C01 = 63,120; F01 = 1; C02 = 70,800; F02 = 1; C03 = 91,080; F03 = 1; NPV; I = 12; CPT NPV = 12,627.41 Do we accept or reject the project? Computing NPV for the Project Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#›
  • 33. 8.8 Section 9.1 (B) Again, the calculator used for the illustration is the TI BA-II plus. The basic procedure is the same; you start with the year 0 cash flow and then enter the cash flows in order. F01, F02, etc. are used to set the frequency of a cash flow occurrence. Many calculators only require you to use this functio n if the frequency is something other than 1. Since we have a positive NPV, we should accept the project. Does the NPV rule account for the time value of money? Does the NPV rule account for the risk of the cash flows? Does the NPV rule provide an indication about the increase in value? Should we consider the NPV rule for our primary decision rule? Decision Criteria Test – NPV Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.9 Section 9.1 (B) The answer to all of these questions is yes.
  • 34. The risk of the cash flows is accounted for through the choice of the discount rate. Lecture Tip: The new tax law contains a provision that allows firms, in some cases, to take bonus depreciation in year one up to 100 percent of the cost of the asset. This will, all else equal, increase the NPV of proposed projects. Spreadsheets are an excellent way to compute NPVs, especially when you have to compute the cash flows as well. Using the NPV function The first component is the required return entered as a decimal. The second component is the range of cash flows beginning with year 1. Subtract the initial investment after computing the NPV. Calculating NPVs with a Spreadsheet Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.10 Section 9.1 (B) Click on the Excel icon to go to an embedded Excel worksheet that has the cash flows along with the right and wrong way to
  • 35. compute NPV. Click on the cell with the solution to show the students the difference in the formulas. How long does it take to get the initial cost back in a nominal sense? Computation Estimate the cash flows. Subtract the future cash flows from the initial cost until the initial investment has been recovered. Decision Rule – Accept if the payback period is less than some preset limit. Payback Period Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.2 (A) 8.11 Assume we will accept the project if it pays back within two years. Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120 = 101,880 still to recover Year 2: 101,880 – 70,800 = 31,080 still to recover Year 3: 31,080 – 91,080 = -60,000 project pays back in year 3 Do we accept or reject the project? Computing Payback Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
  • 36. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.12 Section 9.2 (A) The payback period is year 3 if you assume that the cash flows occur at the end of the year, as we do with all of the other decision rules. If we assume that the cash flows occur evenly throughout the year, then the project pays back in 2.34 years. Either way, the payback rule would say to reject the project. Does the payback rule account for the time value of money? Does the payback rule account for the risk of the cash flows? Does the payback rule provide an indication about the increase in value? Should we consider the payback rule for our primary decision rule? Decision Criteria Test – Payback Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 37. 9-‹#› 8.13 Section 9.2 (B) The answer to all of these questions is no. Lecture Tip: The payback period can be interpreted as a naïve form of discounting if we consider the class of investments with level cash flows over arbitrarily long lives. Since the present value of a perpetuity is the payment divided by the discount rate, a payback period cutoff can be seen to imply a cer tain discount rate. That is: cost/annual cash flow = payback period cutoff cost = annual cash flow times payback period cutoff The PV of a perpetuity is: PV = annual cash flow / R. This illustrates the inverse relationship between the payback period cutoff and the discount rate. Advantages Easy to understand Adjusts for uncertainty of later cash flows Biased toward liquidity Disadvantages Ignores the time value of money Requires an arbitrary cutoff point Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff date Biased against long-term projects, such as research and development, and new projects Advantages and Disadvantages of Payback Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
  • 38. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.14 Section 9.2 (D) Teaching the payback rule seems to put one in a delicate situation – as the text indicates, the rule is flawed as an indicator of project desirability. Yet, past surveys suggest that practitioners often use it as a secondary decision measure. How can we explain this apparent discrepancy between theory and practice? While the payback period is widely used in practice, it is rarely the primary decision criterion. As William Baumol pointed out in the early 1960s, the payback rule serves as a crude “risk screening” device – the longer cash is tied up, the greater the likelihood that it will not be returned. The payback period may be helpful when mutually exclusive projects are compared. Given two similar projects with different paybacks, the project with the shorter payback is often, but not always, the better project. Similarly, the bias toward liquidity may be justifiable in such industries as healthcare, where technology changes rapidly, requiring quick payback to make machines justifiable, or in international investments where the possibility of government seizure of assets exists. Compute the present value of each cash flow and then determine how long it takes to pay back on a discounted basis. Compare to a specified required period.
  • 39. Decision Rule: Accept the project if it pays back on a discounted basis within the specified time. Discounted Payback Period Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.3 8.15 Assume we will accept the project if it pays back on a discounted basis in 2 years. Compute the PV for each cash flow and determine the payback period using discounted cash flows. Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120/1.121 = 108,643 Year 2: 108,643 – 70,800/1.122 = 52,202 Year 3: 52,202 – 91,080/1.123 = -12,627 project pays back in year 3 Do we accept or reject the project? Computing Discounted Payback Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 40. 9-‹#› 8.16 Section 9.3 No – it doesn’t pay back on a discounted basis within the required 2-year period. Does the discounted payback rule account for the time value of money? Does the discounted payback rule account for the risk of the cash flows? Does the discounted payback rule provide an indication about the increase in value? Should we consider the discounted payback rule for our primary decision rule? Decision Criteria Test – Discounted Payback Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.17 Section 9.3 The answer to the first two questions is yes. The answer to the third question is no because of the arbitrary
  • 41. cut-off date. Since the rule does not indicate whether or not we are creating value for the firm, it should not be the primary decision rule. Advantages Includes time value of money Easy to understand Does not accept negative estimated NPV investments when all future cash flows are positive Biased towards liquidity Disadvantages May reject positive NPV investments Requires an arbitrary cutoff point Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff point Biased against long-term projects, such as R&D and new products Advantages and Disadvantages of Discounted Payback Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.3 8.18 There are many different definitions for average accounting return. The one used in the book is: Average net income / average book value
  • 42. Note that the average book value depends on how the asset is depreciated. Need to have a target cutoff rate Decision Rule: Accept the project if the AAR is greater than a preset rate. Average Accounting Return Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.19 Section 9.4 The example in the book uses straight line depreciation to a zero salvage; that is why you can take the initial investment and divide by 2. If you use MACRS, you need to compute the BV in each period and take the average in the standard way. Assume we require an average accounting return of 25%. Average Net Income: (13,620 + 3,300 + 29,100) / 3 = 15,340 AAR = 15,340 / 72,000 = .213 = 21.3% Do we accept or reject the project?
  • 43. Computing AAR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.20 Section 9.4 Students may ask where you came up with the 25%. Point out that this is one of the drawbacks of this rule. There is no good theory for determining what the return should be. We generally just use some rule of thumb. This rule would indicate that we reject the project. Does the AAR rule account for the time value of money? Does the AAR rule account for the risk of the cash flows? Does the AAR rule provide an indication about the increase in value? Should we consider the AAR rule for our primary decision rule? Decision Criteria Test – AAR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 44. 9-‹#› 8.21 Section 9.4 The answer to all of these questions is no. In fact, this rule is even worse than the payback rule in that it doesn’t even use cash flows for the analysis. It uses net income and book value. Thus, it is not surprising that most surveys indicate that few large firms employ the payback and/or AAR methods exclusively. Advantages Easy to calculate Needed information will usually be available Disadvantages Not a true rate of return; time value of money is ignored Uses an arbitrary benchmark cutoff rate Based on accounting net income and book values, not cash flows and market values Advantages and Disadvantages of AAR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.22 Section 9.4
  • 45. Lecture Tip: An alternative view of the AAR is that it is the micro-level analogue to the ROA discussed in a previous chapter. As you remember, firm ROA is normally computed as Firm Net Income / Firm Total Assets. And, it is not uncommon to employ values averaged over several quarters or years in order to smooth out this measure. Some analysts ask, “If the ROA is appropriate for the firm, why is it less appropriate for a project?” Perhaps the best answer is that whether you compute the measure for the firm or for a project, you need to recognize the limitations – it doesn’t account for risk or the time value of money and it is based on accounting, rather than market, data. This is the most important alternative to NPV. It is often used in practice and is intuitively appealing. It is based entirely on the estimated cash flows and is independent of interest rates found elsewhere. Internal Rate of Return Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.23 Section 9.5 The IRR rule is very important. Management, and individuals in general, often have a much better feel for percentage returns, and the value that is created, than they do for dollar increases. A dollar increase doesn’t appear to provide as much information
  • 46. if we don’t know what the initial expenditure was. Whether or not the additional information is relevant is another issue. Definition: IRR is the return that makes the NPV = 0 Decision Rule: Accept the project if the IRR is greater than the required return. IRR – Definition and Decision Rule Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.5 8.24 If you do not have a financial calculator, then this becomes a trial and error process. Calculator Enter the cash flows as you did with NPV. Press IRR and then CPT. IRR = 16.13% > 12% required return Do we accept or reject the project? Computing IRR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 47. 9-‹#› 8.25 Section 9.5 Many of the financial calculators will compute the IRR as soon as it is pressed; others require that you press compute. NPV Profile for the Project IRR = 16.13% Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.26 Section 9.5 Note that the NPV profile is also a form of sensitivity analysis. NPV00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.180. 20.22600005076042121340312644619324126276323381-5227- 10525- 1553600.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.180 .20.2200.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.18 0.20.2200.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.1 80.20.22 Discount Rate
  • 48. NPV Does the IRR rule account for the time value of money? Does the IRR rule account for the risk of the cash flows? Does the IRR rule provide an indication about the increase in value? Should we consider the IRR rule for our primary decision criteria? Decision Criteria Test - IRR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.27 Section 9.5 The answer to all of these questions is yes, although it is not always as obvious. The IRR rule accounts for time value because it is finding the rate of return that equates all of the cash flows on a time value basis. The IRR rule accounts for the risk of the cash flows because you compare it to the required return, which is determined by
  • 49. the risk of the project. The IRR rule provides an indication of value because we will always increase value if we can earn a return greater than our required return. We could consider the IRR rule as our primary decision criteria, but as we will see, it has some problems that the NPV does not have. That is why we end up choosing the NPV as our ultimate decision rule. Knowing a return is intuitively appealing It is a simple way to communicate the value of a project to someone who doesn’t know all the estimation details. If the IRR is high enough, you may not need to estimate a required return, which is often a difficult task. Advantages of IRR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.28 Section 9.5 You should point out, however, that if you get a very large IRR then you should go back and look at your cash flow estimates again. In competitive markets, extremely high IRRs should be rare. Also, since the IRR calculation assumes that you can reinvest future cash flows at the IRR, a high IRR may be unrealistic.
  • 50. You start with the cash flows the same as you did for the NPV. You use the IRR function. You first enter your range of cash flows, beginning with the initial cash flow. You can enter a guess, but it is not necessary. The default format is a whole percent – you will normally want to increase the decimal places to at least two. Calculating IRRs With A Spreadsheet Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.29 Section 9.5 Click on the Excel icon to go to an embedded spreadsheet so that you can illustrate how to compute IRR on the spreadsheet. SummaryNet Present ValueAcceptPayback PeriodRejectDiscounted Payback PeriodRejectAverage Accounting ReturnRejectInternal Rate of ReturnAccept Summary of Decisions for the Project Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 51. 9-‹#› 8.30 Section 9.5 So, what should we do? We have two rules that indicate to accept and three that indicate to reject. NPV and IRR will generally give us the same decision. Exceptions: Nonconventional cash flows – cash flow signs change more than once Mutually exclusive projects Initial investments are substantially different (issue of scale). Timing of cash flows is substantially different. NPV vs. IRR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.5 (A) 8.31
  • 52. When the cash flows change sign more than once, there is more than one IRR. When you solve for IRR you are solving for the root of an equation, and when you cross the x-axis more than once, there will be more than one return that solves the equation. If you have more than one IRR, which one do you use to make your decision? IRR and Nonconventional Cash Flows Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.32 Section 9.5 (A) Lecture Tip: A good introduction to mutually exclusive projects and non-conventional cash flows is to provide examples that students can relate to. An excellent example of mutually exclusive projects is the choice of which college or university to attend. Many students apply and are accepted to more than one college, yet they cannot attend more than one at a time. Consequently, they have to decide between mutually exclusive projects. Nonconventional cash flows and multiple IRRs occur when there is a net cost to shutting down a project. The most common examples deal with collecting natural resources. After the
  • 53. resource has been harvested, there is generally a cost associated with restoring the environment. Suppose an investment will cost $90,000 initially and will generate the following cash flows: Year 1: 132,000 Year 2: 100,000 Year 3: -150,000 The required return is 15%. Should we accept or reject the project? Another Example: Nonconventional Cash Flows Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.33 Section 9.5 (A) NPV = – 90,000 + 132,000 / 1.15 + 100,000 / (1.15)2 – 150,000 / (1.15)3 = 1,769.54 Calculator: CF0 = -90,000; C01 = 132,000; F01 = 1; C02 = 100,000; F02 = 1; C03 = -150,000; F03 = 1; I = 15; CPT NPV = 1769.54 If you compute the IRR on the calculator, you get 10.11% because it is the first one that you come to. So, if you just blindly use the calculator without recognizing the uneven cash flows, NPV would say to accept and IRR would say to reject.
  • 54. Another type of nonconventional cash flow involves a “financing” project, where there is a positive cash flow followed by a series of negative cash flows. This is the opposite of an “investing” project. In this case, our decision rul e reverses, and we accept a project if the IRR is less than the cost of capital, since we are borrowing at a lower rate. NPV Profile IRR = 10.11% and 42.66% Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.34 Section 9.5 (A) You should accept the project if the required return is between 10.11% and 42.66%. NPV00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.5500000000000000 4-8000-3158.41- 52.591769.542638.8928002435.141681.15641.4-605.6-2000- 3496.0200.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.5500000000000 000400.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.550000000000000 0400.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.50.55000000000000004 Discount Rate NPV
  • 55. The NPV is positive at a required return of 15%, so you should Accept. If you use the financial calculator, you would get an IRR of 10.11% which would tell you to Reject. You need to recognize that there are non-conventional cash flows and look at the NPV profile. Summary of Decision Rules Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.5 (A) 8.35 Mutually exclusive projects If you choose one, you can’t choose the other. Example: You can choose to attend graduate school at either Harvard or Stanford, but not both. Intuitively, you would use the following decision rules: NPV – choose the project with the higher NPV IRR – choose the project with the higher IRR IRR and Mutually Exclusive Projects Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 56. 9-‹#› Section 9.5 (A) 8.36 PeriodProject AProject B0-500- 40013253252325200IRR19.43%22.17%NPV64.0560.74 Example With Mutually Exclusive Projects The required return for both projects is 10%. Which project should you accept and why? Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.37 Section 9.5 (A) As long as we do not have limited capital, we should choose project A. Students will often argue that you should choose B because then you can invest the additional $100 in another good project, say C. The point is that if we do not have limited capital, we can invest in A and C and still be better off. If we have limited capital, then we will need to examine what
  • 57. combinations of projects with A provide the highest NPV and what combinations of projects with B provide the highest NPV. You then go with the set that will create the most value. If you have limited capital and a large number of mutually exclusive projects, then you will want to set up a computer program to determine the best combination of projects within the budget constraints. The important point is that we DO NOT use IRR to choose between projects regardless of whether or not we have limited capital. Embedded in the analysis, we may want to calculate the NPV of the incremental project, i.e., the additional CF represented by project A above project B. The IRR of this CF stream is the crossover point and provides the return on the incremental investment. NPV Profiles IRR for A = 19.43% IRR for B = 22.17% Crossover Point = 11.8% Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.38 Section 9.5 (A) If the required return is less than the crossover point of 11.8%, then you should choose A.
  • 58. If the required return is greater than the crossover point of 11.8%, then you should choose B. A00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.180.20. 220.24150131.01112.9895.8579.5664.0549.2735.159999999999 99721.78.83-3.47-15.25- 26.53B00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140000000000000010.160.18 0.20.220.24125110.8697.4184.672.3960.7449.6238.9799999999 9999728.819.0599999999999999.72000000000000060.77-7.83 Discount Rate NPV NPV directly measures the increase in value to the firm. Whenever there is a conflict between NPV and another decision rule, you should always use NPV. IRR is unreliable in the following situations: Nonconventional cash flows Mutually exclusive projects Conflicts Between NPV and IRR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.5 (A)
  • 59. 8.39 Calculate the net present value of all cash outflows using the borrowing rate. Calculate the net future value of all cash inflows using the investing rate. Find the rate of return that equates these values. Benefits: single answer and specific rates for borrowing and reinvestment Modified IRR Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.40 Section 9.5 (C) Measures the benefit per unit cost, based on the time value of money. A profitability index of 1.1 implies that for every $1 of investment, we create an additional $0.10 in value. This measure can be very useful in situations in which we have limited capital. Profitability Index
  • 60. Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.6 8.41 Advantages Closely related to NPV, generally leading to identical decisions Easy to understand and communicate May be useful when available investment funds are limited Disadvantages May lead to incorrect decisions in comparisons of mutually exclusive investments Advantages and Disadvantages of Profitability Index Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.6 8.42 We should consider several investment criteria when making
  • 61. decisions. NPV and IRR are the most commonly used primary investment criteria. Payback is a commonly used secondary investment criteria. Capital Budgeting In Practice Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.43 Section 9.7 Even though payback and AAR should not be used to make the final decision, we should consider the project very carefully if they suggest rejection. There may be more risk than we have considered or we may want to pay additional attention to our cash flow estimations. Sensitivity and scenario analysis can be used to help us evaluate our cash flows. The fact that payback is commonly used as a secondary criterion may be because short paybacks allow firms to have funds sooner to invest in other projects without going to the capital markets. Why are smaller firms more likely to use payback as a primary decision criterion? Small firms don’t have direct access to the capital markets and therefore find it more difficult to estimate discount rates based on funds cost;
  • 62. the AAR is the project-level equivalent to the ROA measure used for analyzing firm profitability; and (3) some small firm decision-makers may be less aware of DCF approaches than their large firm counterparts. When managers are judged and rewarded primarily on the basis of periodic accounting figures, there is an incentive to evaluate projects with methods such as payback or average accounting return. On the other hand, when compensation is tied to firm value, it makes more sense to use NPV as the primary decision tool. Net present value Difference between market value and cost Take the project if the NPV is positive. Has no serious problems Preferred decision criterion Internal rate of return Discount rate that makes NPV = 0 Take the project if the IRR is greater than the required return. Same decision as NPV with conventional cash flows IRR is unreliable with nonconventional cash flows or mutually exclusive projects. Profitability Index Benefit-cost ratio Take investment if PI > 1 Cannot be used to rank mutually exclusive projects May be used to rank projects in the presence of capital rationing Summary – DCF Criteria Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 63. 9-‹#› 8.44 Section 9.8 For IRR, we assume a conventional investment project. For a financing project, we accept if the IRR is less than the “required” rate. Payback period Length of time until initial investment is recovered Take the project if it pays back within some specified period. Doesn’t account for time value of money, and there is an arbitrary cutoff period Discounted payback period Length of time until initial investment is recovered on a discounted basis Take the project if it pays back in some specified period. There is an arbitrary cutoff period. Summary – Payback Criteria Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#›
  • 64. Section 9.8 8.45 Average Accounting Return Measure of accounting profit relative to book value Similar to return on assets measure Take the investment if the AAR exceeds some specified return level. Serious problems and should not be used Summary – Accounting Criterion Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› Section 9.8 8.46 Consider an investment that costs $100,000 and has a cash inflow of $25,000 every year for 5 years. The required return is 9%, and required payback is 4 years. What is the payback period? What is the discounted payback period? What is the NPV? What is the IRR? Should we accept the project?
  • 65. What decision rule should be the primary decision method? When is the IRR rule unreliable? Quick Quiz Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.47 Section 9.8 Payback period = 4 years The project does not pay back on a discounted basis. NPV = -2,758.72 IRR = 7.93% An ABC poll in the spring of 2004 found that one-third of students age 12 – 17 admitted to cheating and the percentage increased as the students got older and felt more grade pressure. If a book entitled “How to Cheat: A User’s Guide” would generate a positive NPV, would it be proper for a publishing company to offer the new book? Should a firm exceed the minimum legal limits of government imposed environmental regulations and be responsible for the environment, even if this responsibility leads to a wealth reduction for the firm? Is environmental damage merely a cost of doing business?
  • 66. Should municipalities offer monetary incentives to induce firms to relocate to their areas? Ethics Issues Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 8.48 Case 1: Assume the publishing company has a cost of capital of 8% and estimates it could sell 10,000 volumes by the end of year one and 5,000 volumes in each of the following two years. The immediate printing costs for the 20,000 volumes would be $20,000. The book would sell for $7.50 per copy and net the company a profit of $6 per copy after royalties, marketing costs and taxes. Year one net would be $60,000. From a capital budgeting standpoint, is it financially wise to buy the publication rights? What is the NPV of this investment? The year 0 cash flow is -20,000, year 1 is 60,000, and years 2 and 3 are 30,000 each. Given a cost of capital of 8%, the NPV is just over $85,000. It looks good, right? Now ask the class if the publishing of this book would encourage cheating and if the publishing company would want to be associated with this text and its message. Some students may feel that one should accept these profitable investment opportunities, while others might prefer that the publication of this profitable text be rejected due to the behavior it could encourage. Although the example is simplistic, this type of issue is not uncommon and serves as a starting point for a discussion of the value of “reputational capital.”
  • 67. Case 2: Assume that to comply with the Air Quality Control Act of 1989, a company must install three smoke stack scrubber units to its ventilation stacks at an installed cost of $355,000 per unit. An estimated $100,000 per unit in fines could be saved each year over the five-year life of the ventilation stacks. The cost of capital is 14% for the firm. The analysis of the investment results in a NPV of -$35,076. Could investment in a healthier working environment result in lower long-term costs in the form of lower future health costs? If so, might this decision result in an increase in shareholder wealth? Notice that if the answer to this second question is yes, it suggests that our original analysis omitted some side benefits to the project. An investment project has the following cash flows: CF0 = - 1,000,000; C01 – C08 = 200,000 each If the required rate of return is 12%, what decision should be made using NPV? How would the IRR decision rule be used for this project, and what decision would be reached? How are the above two decisions related? Comprehensive Problem Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#›
  • 68. 8.49 Section 9.8 NPV = -$6,472; reject the project since it would lower the value of the firm. IRR = 11.81%, so reject the project since it would tie up investable funds in a project that will provide insufficient return. The NPV and IRR decision rules will provide the same decision for all independent projects with conventional/normal cash flow patterns. If a project adds value to the firm (i.e., has a positive NPV), then it must be expected to provide a return above that which is required. Both of those justifications are good for shareholders. End of Chapter CHAPTER 9 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 9-‹#› 9-‹#›
  • 69. Sheet1Year0123Cash Flows-165000631207080091080Required Return0.12NPV - WRONG$11,274.48NPV - RIGHT$12,627.41 Sheet2 Sheet3 Sheet1Year0123Cash Flows-165000631207080091080Required Return0.12NPV - WRONG$11,274.48NPV - RIGHT$12,627.41IRR16%16.13%Default Format Sheet2 Sheet3 CHAPTER 6 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION (CALCULATOR) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.1 This version relies primarily on the financial calculator with a brief presentation of formulas. The calculator discussed is the TI-BA-II+. The slides are easy to modify for whatever
  • 70. calculator you prefer. Determine the future and present value of investments with multiple cash flows Explain how loan payments are calculated and how to find the interest rate on a loan Describe how loans are amortized or paid off Show how interest rates are quoted (and misquoted) Key Concepts and Skills Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Future and Present Values of Multiple Cash Flows Valuing Level Cash Flows: Annuities and Perpetuities Comparing Rates: The Effect of Compounding Loan Types and Loan Amortization Chapter Outline Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 71. 6C-‹#› You think you will be able to deposit $4,000 at the end of each of the next three years in a bank account paying 8 percent interest. You currently have $7,000 in the account. How much will you have in three years? How much will you have in four years? Multiple Cash Flows – FV (Example 6.1) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.1 (A) 5.4 Find the value at year 3 of each cash flow and add them together. Today’s (year 0) CF: 3 N; 8 I/Y; -7,000 PV; CPT FV = 8817.98 Year 1 CF: 2 N; 8 I/Y; -4,000 PV; CPT FV = 4,665.60 Year 2 CF: 1 N; 8 I/Y; -4,000 PV; CPT FV = 4,320 Year 3 CF: value = 4,000 Total value in 3 years = 8,817.98 + 4,665.60 + 4,320 + 4,000 = 21,803.58 Value at year 4: 1 N; 8 I/Y; -21,803.58 PV; CPT FV = 23,547.87 Multiple Cash Flows – FV (Example 6.1, CTD.) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
  • 72. consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.5 Section 6.1 (A) The students can read the example in the book. It is also provided here. You think you will be able to deposit $4,000 at the end of each of the next three years in a bank account paying 8 percent interest. You currently have $7,000 in the account. How much will you have in three years? In four years? Point out that there are several ways that this can be worked. The book works this example by rolling the value forward each year. The presentation will show the second way to work the problem, finding the future value at the end for each cash flow and then adding. Point out that you can find the value of a set of cash flows at any point in time, all you have to do is get the value of each cash flow at that point in time and then add them together. I entered the PV as negative for two reasons. (1) It is a cash outflow since it is an investment. (2) The FV is computed as positive, and the students can then just store each calculation and then add from the memory registers, instead of writing down all of the numbers and taking the risk of keying something back into the calculator incorrectly. Formula: Today (year 0): FV = 7000(1.08)3 = 8,817.98
  • 73. Year 1: FV = 4,000(1.08)2 = 4,665.60 Year 2: FV = 4,000(1.08) = 4,320 Year 3: value = 4,000 Total value in 3 years = 8817.98 + 4665.60 + 4320 + 4000 = 21,803.58 Value at year 4 = 21,803.58(1.08) = 23,547.87 Suppose you invest $500 in a mutual fund today and $600 in one year. If the fund pays 9% annually, how much will you have in two years? Year 0 CF: 2 N; -500 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 594.05 Year 1 CF: 1 N; -600 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 654.00 Total FV = 594.05 + 654.00 = 1,248.05 Multiple Cash Flows – FV Example 2 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.6 Section 6.1 (A) Formula: FV = 500(1.09)2 + 600(1.09) = 1,248.05 How much will you have in 5 years if you make no further deposits?
  • 74. First way: Year 0 CF: 5 N; -500 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 769.31 Year 1 CF: 4 N; -600 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 846.95 Total FV = 769.31 + 846.95 = 1,616.26 Second way – use value at year 2: 3 N; -1,248.05 PV; 9 I/Y; CPT FV = 1,616.26 Multiple Cash Flows – FV Example 2 (ctd.) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.7 Section 6.1 (A) Formula: First way: FV = 500(1.09)5 + 600(1.09)4 = 1,616.26 Second way: FV = 1248.05(1.09)3 = 1,616.26 Suppose you plan to deposit $100 into an account in one year and $300 into the account in three years. How much will be in the account in five years if the interest rate is 8%? Year 1 CF: 4 N; -100 PV; 8 I/Y; CPT FV = 136.05 Year 3 CF: 2 N; -300 PV; 8 I/Y; CPT FV = 349.92 Total FV = 136.05 + 349.92 = 485.97 Multiple Cash Flows – FV Example 3
  • 75. Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.8 Section 6.1 (A) Formula: FV = 100(1.08)4 + 300(1.08)2 = 136.05 + 349.92 = 485.97 Find the PV of each cash flow and add them Year 1 CF: N = 1; I/Y = 12; FV = 200; CPT PV = -178.57 Year 2 CF: N = 2; I/Y = 12; FV = 400; CPT PV = -318.88 Year 3 CF: N = 3; I/Y = 12; FV = 600; CPT PV = -427.07 Year 4 CF: N = 4; I/Y = 12; FV = 800; CPT PV = -508.41 Total PV = 178.57 + 318.88 + 427.07 + 508.41 = 1,432.93 Multiple Cash Flows – pv (Example 6.3) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#›
  • 76. 5.9 Section 6.1 (B) The students can read the example in the book. You are offered an investment that will pay you $200 in one year, $400 the next year, $600 the next year and $800 at the end of the fourth year. You can earn 12 percent on very similar investments. What is the most you should pay for this one? Point out that the question could also be phrased as “How much is this investment worth?” Remember the sign convention. The negative numbers imply that we would have to pay 1,432.93 today to receive the cash flows in the future. Formula: Year 1 CF: 200 / (1.12)1 = 178.57 Year 2 CF: 400 / (1.12)2 = 318.88 Year 3 CF: 600 / (1.12)3 = 427.07 Year 4 CF: 800 / (1.12)4 = 508.41 Example 6.3 Timeline 0 1 2 3 4
  • 77. 200 400 600 800 178.57 318.88 427.07 508.41 1,432.93 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.1 (B) 5.10 You can use the PV or FV functions in Excel to find the present value or future value of a set of cash flows. Setting the data up is half the battle – if it is set up properly, then you can just copy the formulas.
  • 78. Click on the Excel icon for an example. Multiple Cash Flows Using a Spreadsheet Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.11 Section 6.1 (B) Click on the tabs at the bottom of the worksheet to move from a future value example to a present value example. Lecture Tip: The present value of a series of cash flows depends heavily on the choice of discount rate. You can easily illustrate this dependence in the spreadsheet on Slide 6.10 by changing the cell that contains the discount rate. A separate worksheet on the slide provides a graph of the relationship between PV and the discount rate. You are considering an investment that will pay you $1,000 in one year, $2,000 in two years, and $3,000 in three years. If you want to earn 10% on your money, how much would you be willing to pay? N = 1; I/Y = 10; FV = 1,000; CPT PV = -909.09 N = 2; I/Y = 10; FV = 2,000; CPT PV = -1,652.89 N = 3; I/Y = 10; FV = 3,000; CPT PV = -2,253.94 PV = 909.09 + 1,652.89 + 2,253.94 = 4,815.93
  • 79. Multiple Cash Flows – PV Another Example Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.12 Section 6.1 (B) Formula: PV = 1000 / (1.1)1 = 909.09 PV = 2000 / (1.1)2 = 1,652.89 PV = 3000 / (1.1)3 = 2,253.94 PV = 909.09 + 1,652.89 + 2,253.94 = 4,815.92 Another way to use the financial calculator for uneven cash flows is to use the cash flow keys. Press CF and enter the cash flows beginning with year 0. You have to press the “Enter” key for each cash flow. Use the down arrow key to move to the next cash flow. The “F” is the number of times a given cash flow occurs in consecutive periods. Use the NPV key to compute the present value by entering the interest rate for I, pressing the down arrow, and then computing the answer. Clear the cash flow worksheet by pressing CF and then 2nd CLR Work. Multiple Uneven Cash Flows – Using the Calculator Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
  • 80. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.13 Section 6.1 (B) The next example will be worked using the cash flow keys. Note that with the BA-II Plus, the students can double check the numbers they have entered by pressing the up and down arrows. It is similar to entering the cash flows into spreadsheet cells. Other calculators also have cash flow keys. You enter the information by putting in the cash flow and then pressing CF. You have to always start with the year 0 cash flow, even if it is zero. Remind the students that the cash flows have to occur at even intervals, so if you skip a year, you still have to enter a 0 cash flow for that year. Your broker calls you and tells you that he has this great investment opportunity. If you invest $100 today, you will receive $40 in one year and $75 in two years. If you require a 15% return on investments of this risk, should you take the investment? Use the CF keys to compute the value of the investment. CF; CF0 = 0; C01 = 40; F01 = 1; C02 = 75; F02 = 1
  • 81. NPV; I = 15; CPT NPV = 91.49 No – the broker is charging more than you would be willing to pay. Decisions, Decisions Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.14 Section 6.1 (B) You can also use this as an introduction to NPV by having the students put –100 in for CF0. When they compute the NPV, they will get –8.51. You can then discuss the NPV rule and point out that a negative NPV means that you do not earn your required return. You should also remind them that the sign convention on the regular TVM keys is NOT the same as getting a negative NPV. You are offered the opportunity to put some money away for retirement. You will receive five annual payments of $25,000 each beginning in 40 years. How much would you be willing to invest today if you desire an interest rate of 12%? Use cash flow keys: CF; CF0 = 0; C01 = 0; F01 = 39; C02 = 25,000; F02 = 5; NPV; I = 12; CPT NPV = 1,084.71 Saving For Retirement
  • 82. Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.1 (B) 5.15 Saving For Retirement Timeline 0 1 2 … 39 40 41 42 43 44 0 0 0 … 0 25K 25K 25K 25K 25K Notice that the year 0 cash flow = 0 (CF0 = 0) The cash flows in years 1 – 39 are 0 (C01 = 0; F01 = 39) The cash flows in years 40 – 44 are 25,000 (C02 = 25,000; F02 = 5) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 83. 6C-‹#› Section 6.1 (B) 5.16 Suppose you are looking at the following possible cash flows: Year 1 CF = $100; Years 2 and 3 CFs = $200; Years 4 and 5 CFs = $300. The required discount rate is 7%. What is the value of the cash flows at year 5? What is the value of the cash flows today? What is the value of the cash flows at year 3? Quick Quiz – Part I Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.17 Section 6.1 The easiest way to work this problem is to use the uneven cash flow keys and find the present value first and then compute the others based on that. CF0 = 0; C01 = 100; F01 = 1; C02 = 200; F02 = 2; C03 = 300; F03 = 2; I = 7; CPT NPV = 874.17
  • 84. Value in year 5: PV = 874.17; N = 5; I/Y = 7; CPT FV = 1,226.07 Value in year 3: PV = 874.17; N = 3; I/Y = 7; CPT FV = 1,070.90 Using formulas and one CF at a time: Year 1 CF: FV5 = 100(1.07)4 = 131.08; PV0 = 100 / 1.07 = 93.46; FV3 = 100(1.07)2 = 114.49 Year 2 CF: FV5 = 200(1.07)3 = 245.01; PV0 = 200 / (1.07)2 = 174.69; FV3 = 200(1.07) = 214 Year 3 CF: FV5 = 200(1.07)2 = 228.98; PV0 = 200 / (1.07)3 = 163.26; FV3 = 200 Year 4 CF: FV5 = 300(1.07) = 321; PV0 = 300 / (1.07)4 = 228.87; PV3 = 300 / 1.07 = 280.37 Year 5 CF: FV5 = 300; PV0 = 300 / (1.07)5 = 213.90; PV3 = 300 / (1.07)2 = 262.03 Value at year 5 = 131.08 + 245.01 + 228.98 + 321 + 300 = 1,226.07 Present value today = 93.46 + 174.69 + 163.26 + 228.87 + 213.90 = 874.18 (difference due to rounding) Value at year 3 = 114.49 + 214 + 200 + 280.37 + 262.03 = 1,070.89 (difference due to rounding) Annuity – finite series of equal payments that occur at regular intervals If the first payment occurs at the end of the period, it is called an ordinary annuity. If the first payment occurs at the beginning of the period, it is called an annuity due. Perpetuity – infinite series of equal payments Annuities and Perpetuities Defined Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
  • 85. consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 5.18 Perpetuity: PV = C / r Annuities: Annuities and Perpetuities – Basic Formulas Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.19 Section 6.2 Lecture Tip: The annuity factor approach is a short-cut approach in the process of calculating the present value of multiple cash flows and it is only applicable to a finite series of level cash flows. Financial calculators have reduced the need for annuity factors, but it may still be useful from a conceptual standpoint to show that the PVIFA is just the sum of the PVIFs across the same time period.
  • 86. You can use the PMT key on the calculator for the equal payment. The sign convention still holds. Ordinary annuity versus annuity due You can switch your calculator between the two types by using the 2nd BGN 2nd Set on the TI BA-II Plus. If you see “BGN” or “Begin” in the display of your calculator, you have it set for an annuity due. Most problems are ordinary annuities. Annuities and the Calculator Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.20 Section 6.2 Other calculators also have a key that allows you to switch between Beg/End. After carefully going over your budget, you have determined you can afford to pay $632 per month toward a new sports car. You call up your local bank and find out that the going rate is 1 percent per month for 48 months. How much can you borrow? To determine how much you can borrow, we need to calculate the present value of $632 per month for 48 months at 1 percent per month.
  • 87. Annuity – Example 6.5 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (A) 5.21 You borrow money TODAY so you need to compute the present value. 48 N; 1 I/Y; -632 PMT; CPT PV = 23,999.54 ($24,000) Formula: Annuity – Example 6.5 (ctd.) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.22 Section 6.2 (A) The students can read the example in the book.
  • 88. After carefully going over your budget, you have determined you can afford to pay $632 per month towards a new sports car. You call up your local bank and find out that the going rate is 1 percent per month for 48 months. How much can you borrow? Note that the difference between the answer here and the one in the book is due to the rounding of the Annuity PV factor in the book. Suppose you win the Publishers Clearinghouse $10 million sweepstakes. The money is paid in equal annual end-of-year installments of $333,333.33 over 30 years. If the appropriate discount rate is 5%, how much is the sweepstakes actually worth today? 30 N; 5 I/Y; 333,333.33 PMT; CPT PV = 5,124,150.29 Annuity – Sweepstakes Example Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.23 Section 6.2 (A) Formula: PV = 333,333.33[1 – 1/1.0530] / .05 = 5,124,150.29 You are ready to buy a house, and you have $20,000 for a down
  • 89. payment and closing costs. Closing costs are estimated to be 4% of the loan value. You have an annual salary of $36,000, and the bank is willing to allow your monthly mortgage payment to be equal to 28% of your monthly income. The interest rate on the loan is 6% per year with monthly compounding (.5% per month) for a 30-year fixed rate loan. How much money will the bank loan you? How much can you offer for the house? Buying a House Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.24 Section 6.2 (A) It might be good to note that the outstanding balance on the loan at any point in time is simply the present value of the remaining payments. Bank loan Monthly income = 36,000 / 12 = 3,000 Maximum payment = .28(3,000) = 840 30×12 = 360 N .5 I/Y -840 PMT CPT PV = 140,105 Total Price Closing costs = .04(140,105) = 5,604
  • 90. Down payment = 20,000 – 5,604 = 14,396 Total Price = 140,105 + 14,396 = 154,501 Buying a House (ctd.) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.25 Section 6.2 (A) You might point out that you would probably not offer 154,501. The more likely scenario would be 154,500 , or less if you assumed negotiations would occur. Formula PV = 840[1 – 1/1.005360] / .005 = 140,105 The present value and future value formulas in a spreadsheet include a place for annuity payments. Click on the Excel icon to see an example. Annuities on the Spreadsheet – Example Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 91. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (A) 5.26 You know the payment amount for a loan, and you want to know how much was borrowed. Do you compute a present value or a future value? You want to receive 5,000 per month in retirement. If you can earn 0.75% per month and you expect to need the income for 25 years, how much do you need to have in your account at retirement? Quick Quiz – Part II Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.27 Section 6.2 (A) Calculator PMT = 5,000; N = 25×12 = 300; I/Y = .75; CPT PV = 595,808 Formula PV = 5000[1 – 1 / 1.0075300] / .0075 = 595,808 Suppose you want to borrow $20,000 for a new car. You can borrow at 8% per year, compounded monthly (8/12 = .66667% per month).
  • 92. If you take a 4-year loan, what is your monthly payment? 4(12) = 48 N; 20,000 PV; .66667 I/Y; CPT PMT = 488.26 Finding the Payment Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.28 Section 6.2 (A) Formula 20,000 = PMT[1 – 1 / 1.006666748] / .0066667 PMT = 488.26 Another TVM formula that can be found in a spreadsheet is the payment formula. PMT(rate, nper, pv, fv) The same sign convention holds as for the PV and FV formulas. Click on the Excel icon for an example. Finding the Payment on a Spreadsheet Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 93. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (A) 5.29 You ran a little short on your spring break vacation, so you put $1,000 on your credit card. You can afford only the minimum payment of $20 per month. The interest rate on the credit card is 1.5 percent per month. How long will you need to pay off the $1,000? Finding the Number of Payments – Example 6.6 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (A) 5.30 The sign convention matters! 1.5 I/Y 1,000 PV -20 PMT CPT N = 93.111 months = 7.75 years And this is only if you don’t charge anything more on the card! Finding the Number of Payments – Example 6.6 (ctd.) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 94. 6C-‹#› 5.31 Section 6.2 (A) You ran a little short on your spring break vacation, so you put $1,000 on your credit card. You can only afford to make the minimum payment of $20 per month. The interest rate on the credit card is 1.5 percent per month. How long will you need to pay off the $1,000? This is an excellent opportunity to talk about credit card debt and the problems that can develop if it is not handled properly. Many students don’t understand how it works, and it is rarely discussed. This is something that students can take away from the class, even if they aren’t finance majors. 1000 = 20(1 – 1/1.015t) / .015 .75 = 1 – 1 / 1.015t 1 / 1.015t = .25 1 / .25 = 1.015t t = ln(1/.25) / ln(1.015) = 93.111 months = 7.75 years Suppose you borrow $2,000 at 5%, and you are going to make annual payments of $734.42. How long before you pay off the loan? Sign convention matters!!! 5 I/Y 2,000 PV -734.42 PMT CPT N = 3 years
  • 95. Finding the Number of Payments – Another Example Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.32 Section 6.2 (A) 2000 = 734.42(1 – 1/1.05t) / .05 .136161869 = 1 – 1/1.05t 1/1.05t = .863838131 1.157624287 = 1.05t t = ln(1.157624287) / ln(1.05) = 3 years Suppose you borrow $10,000 from your parents to buy a car. You agree to pay $207.58 per month for 60 months. What is the monthly interest rate? Sign convention matters!!! 60 N 10,000 PV -207.58 PMT CPT I/Y = .75% Finding the Rate Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 96. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (A) 5.33 Trial and Error Process Choose an interest rate and compute the PV of the payments based on this rate. Compare the computed PV with the actual loan amount. If the computed PV > loan amount, then the interest rate is too low. If the computed PV < loan amount, then the interest rate is too high. Adjust the rate and repeat the process until the computed PV and the loan amount are equal. Annuity – Finding the Rate Without a Financial Calculator Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (A) 5.34 You want to receive $5,000 per month for the next 5 years. How much would you need to deposit today if you can earn 0.75% per month? What monthly rate would you need to earn if you only have $200,000 to deposit?
  • 97. Suppose you have $200,000 to deposit and can earn 0.75% per month. How many months could you receive the $5,000 payment? How much could you receive every month for 5 years? Quick Quiz – Part III Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.35 Section 6.2 (A) Q1: 5(12) = 60 N; .75 I/Y; 5000 PMT; CPT PV = -240,867 PV = 5000(1 – 1 / 1.007560) / .0075 = 240,867 Q2: -200,000 PV; 60 N; 5000 PMT; CPT I/Y = 1.439% Trial and error without calculator Q3: -200,000 PV; .75 I/Y; 5000 PMT; CPT N = 47.73 (47 months plus partial payment in month 48) 200,000 = 5000(1 – 1 / 1.0075t) / .0075 .3 = 1 – 1/1.0075t 1.0075t = 1.428571429 t = ln(1.428571429) / ln(1.0075) = 47.73 months Q4: -200,000 PV; 60 N; .75 I/Y; CPT PMT = 4,151.67 200,000 = C(1 – 1/1.007560) / .0075 C = 4,151.67 Suppose you begin saving for your retirement by depositing $2,000 per year in an IRA.
  • 98. If the interest rate is 7.5%, how much will you have in 40 years? Remember the sign convention! 40 N 7.5 I/Y -2,000 PMT CPT FV = 454,513.04 Future Values for Annuities Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.36 Section 6.2 (B) FV = 2000(1.07540 – 1)/.075 = 454,513.04 Lecture Tip: It should be emphasized that annuity factor tables (and the annuity factors in the formulas) assumes that the first payment occurs one period from the present, with the final payment at the end of the annuity’s life. If the first payment occurs at the beginning of the period, then FV’s have one additional period for compounding and PV’s have one less period to be discounted. Consequently, you can multiply both the future value and the present value by (1 + r) to account for the change in timing. You are saving for a new house and you put $10,000 per year in an account paying 8%. The first payment is made today. How much will you have at the end of 3 years?
  • 99. 2nd BGN 2nd Set (you should see BGN in the display) 3 N -10,000 PMT 8 I/Y CPT FV = 35,061.12 2nd BGN 2nd Set (be sure to change it back to an ordinary annuity) Annuity Due Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.37 Section 6.2 (C) Note that the procedure for changing the calculator to an annuity due is similar on other calculators. Formula: FV = 10,000[(1.083 – 1) / .08](1.08) = 35,061.12 What if it were an ordinary annuity? FV = 32,464 (so you receive an additional 2,597.12 by starting to save today.) Annuity Due Timeline
  • 100. 0 1 2 3 10000 10000 10000 32,464 35,016.12 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.38 Section 6.2 (C) If you use the regular annuity formula, the FV will occur at the same time as the last payment. To get the value at the end of the third period, you have to take it forward one more period. Suppose the Fellini Co. wants to sell preferred stock at $100 per share. A similar issue of preferred stock already outstanding has a price of $40 per share and offers a dividend of $1 every quarter. What dividend will Fellini have to offer if the preferred stock is going to sell? Perpetuity – Example 6.7 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 101. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (D) 5.39 Perpetuity formula: PV = C / r Current required return: 40 = 1 / r r = .025 or 2.5% per quarter Dividend for new preferred: 100 = C / .025 C = 2.50 per quarter Perpetuity – Example 6.7 (ctd.) Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.40 Section 6.2 (D) This is a good preview to the valuation issues discussed in future chapters. The price of an investment is just the present value of expected future cash flows. Example statement:
  • 102. Suppose the Fellini Co. wants to sell preferred stock at $100 per share. A very similar issue of preferred stock already outstanding has a price of $40 per share and offers a dividend of $1 every quarter. What dividend will Fellini have to offer if the preferred stock is going to sell? You want to have $1 million to use for retirement in 35 years. If you can earn 1% per month, how much do you need to deposit on a monthly basis if the first payment is made in one month? What if the first payment is made today? You are considering preferred stock that pays a quarterly dividend of $1.50. If your desired return is 3% per quarter, how much would you be willing to pay? Quick Quiz – Part IV Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› 5.41 Section 6.2 (D) Q1: 35(12) = 420 N; 1,000,000 FV; 1 I/Y; CPT PMT = 155.50 1,000,000 = C (1.01420 – 1) / .01 C = 155.50 Q2:Set calculator to annuity due and use the same inputs as above. CPT PMT = 153.96
  • 103. The payments would be smaller by one period’s interest. Divide the above result by 1.01. 1,000,000 = C[(1.01420 – 1) / .01] ( 1.01) C = 153.96 Q3: PV = 1.50 / .03 = $50 Another online financial calculator can be found at MoneyChimp. Go to the website and work the following example. Choose calculator and then annuity You just inherited $5 million. If you can earn 6% on your money, how much can you withdraw each year for the next 40 years? MoneyChimp assumes annuity due! Payment = $313,497.81 Work the Web Example Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (D) 5.42 Table 6.2 Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 104. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (D) 5.43 A growing stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity Growing Annuity Copyright © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6C-‹#› Section 6.2 (E) 5.44 A defined-benefit retirement plan offers to pay $20,000 per year for 40 years and increase the annual payment by three-percent each year. What is the present value at retirement if the discount rate is 10 percent? Growing Annuity: Example