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Offshore wind market today
MARCH 2024 โ€“ GREEN GIRAFFE ADVISORY
1 CONFIDENTIAL
65 GW of offshore wind has been installed around the
globe as of 2023*
1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY
2 CONFIDENTIAL
135+
71
112
191
225
237
396
482
2,263
2,343
3,010
8,043
13,601
26,563
Others
Finland
South Korea
Sweden
Japan
Taiwan
Vietnam
France
Belgium
Denmark
Netherlands
Germany
UK
China
*Orrick, Global Offshore Wind Report 2024; **WFO, Global offshore wind report (Feb 2023); others: US, IT, PT, IE, NO, ES, ***GWEC Global Offshore Wind Report 2022
Since 2010 there has been a plethora of OW projects
reaching financial close across the globe
โ€ข The past decade has seen a total of 206 closed deals with a
total disclosed transaction volume of EUR 133.5 bn
โ€ข Expected annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% until 2026 and
up to 13.9% from 2026-30***
Global offshore wind market
expected growth
2020
2030
2050
0 GW 25 GW 0 GW
31 GW
2 GW
126 GW
8 GW
79 GW
2 GW
181 GW
31 GW
439 GW
60 GW
490 GW
87 GW
Source: DNV Energy transition outlook 2022
OW capacity (GW)
Of which FOW
Cumulative offshore wind capacity in
operation as of 2022 (MW)**
APAC ex-China will spearhead the next growth wave, surging to 490 GW installation by 2050 or ~44% market share
APAC ex-China
179
73
55
4
47
0 0 0 0 <0 0 <0 <0
103
64
50
70
103
200
180
162
83
64
44
46
71
47.5
44.9
86 86
60
145
100
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Winning
bid
price
(โ‚ฌ/MWh)
Floor price, flat
Fixed price, flat
Fixed price, Indexed
LCOE trend
LCOE disconnected bids
Fixed bottom offshore wind tender results indicate the
steady LCOE declineโ€ฆuntil 2021
1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY
3 CONFIDENTIAL
More zero / negative bids were seen in recent tenders structured for private sectors to shoulder the cost premium
Over the past 2 years, the offshore wind sector has
faced headwinds due to various factors
OW CAPEX increasing by ~40% since 2021 and thus higher LCOE
is driven by a mix of i) commodity price surge such as steel and key
metals, ii) labour cost rise, iii) higher cost of capital and iv) supply
chain challenges
OW projects which have their power prices fixed first before
finalising contracting for next 1-2 years have suffered the most
1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Aug-2020 Aug-2021 Sep-2022 Sep-2023
15-year swap rates (%)
EUR 15Y swaps GBP 15Y swaps
3-4 %
Increase
Late-stage development projects are the most impacted, as the increased LCOE cannot be reflected in PPA
Country Comment
โ€ข Difficulties for awarded OW projects allocated as part of
the CfD AR4, leading to some projects being cancelled
or postponed
โ€ข No OW allocated during the CfD AR5 with the cap price
of 44 GBP / MWh (60 GBP / MWh in todayโ€™s price)
โ€ข In late 2023, UK increased the cap price for OW projects
to 73 GBP / MWh and for floating offshore wind projects
from 116 GBP / MWh to GBP 176 / MWh, for CfD AR6
โ€ข Construction and supply chain issues, coupled with
pandemic and macroeconomic headwinds, severely
affects debt financing and investment appetite
โ€ข Heavy localisation increases costs and risks
โ€ข Corporate PPA in Rd 3 adds another layer of complexity
โ€ข Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties
4 CONFIDENTIAL
Country PPA structure Project pipeline Finance/ Macro Supply chain Summary 1
PH
โœ“ Government RE auction
โœ“ Various off-take routes
โœ“ OW prioritised to increase
energy independence; DOE
targets 35% RE by 2030
โœ“ Bankable GEAP / FiT
ร— Local interest rate is high
under inflationary
environment
โœ“ RE Law supports import and
encourage local job creation
ร— Lack of port infra and grid
capacity
Promising market
subject to ongoing
regulatory and infra
development
JP
โœ“ FiP scheme for fixed-bottom
OW auctions
โœ“ CPPA + off-take aggregator
โœ“ 10 GW projects by 2030
โœ“ 1.8 GW Rd 2 released in
2023 and Q1 2024
โœ“ Continued monetary
easing environment
โœ“ Mature PF market w/ liquidity
ร— FX volatility risk
ร— Nascent supply chain due to
lack of projects and scale
ร— Lack of port infra and grid
capacity
Progressively rolling-
out 10 GW OW target;
clear auction plan but
highly competitive
KR
โœ“ REC SPA with RPS
Obligors (i.e. GENCOs)
โœ“ REC SPA auction being
implemented
โœ“ 1 GW COD by 2026
โ€“ 14 GW pipeline target for
COD by 2030
ร— Quasi-financial crisis and
weakened currency in 2023
โœ“ Developed PF market
โ€“ Starting from scratch
โœ“ Well-established offshore
marine sector
Govt to streamline OW
permitting framework
TW
ร— Zero-bid auction; need to
develop CPPA market
โœ“ CPPA with government
credit support
โœ“ 9 GW COD by 2027
โœ“ 6 GW auction in 2023/24
โœ“ Planning floating demo
ร— IRS pricing increases
โœ“ FX well under control
ร— Construction delays causing
liquidity issues
ร— Localisation requirements
increasing capex
โœ“ Ready port infra, leading
experts in place
Most mature market in
APAC. Clear long-term
auction plan despite
current headwinds
AU
? Likely CPPA + government
support
โœ“ VIC: Targeting 2 GW COD by
2030, 9GW by 2040
โ€“ NSW: 5 GW OWZ
โ€“ 3 other OWZ to be declared
ร— Inflationary environment
โœ“ Deep project financing
market for OW
ร— Pending development of
OW related infra
OWZ of each state to
materialise from 2030
onwards
VN
ร— Unbankable USD-pegged
fixed PPA with EVN
โœ“ 6 GW OW in PDP 8
ร— Unclear route after phasing-
out FiT
ร— Hit by weakened exports and
property prices
โ€“ Mostly nearshore BOP (not
vessel installed)
ร— Rely on Chinese EPC
Deep-water OW is not
prioritised by govt in
the short-term
Overview of APAC offshore wind key markets
1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY
5 CONFIDENTIAL Note 1: Colors show the marketโ€™s attractiveness for historical (top-left) and current (bottom-right)
BOSTON โˆ’ CAPE TOWN โˆ’ HAMBURG โˆ’ LONDON โˆ’ MADRID โˆ’ MARSEILLE โˆ’ PARIS โˆ’ SINGAPORE โˆ’ SYDNEY โˆ’ TOKYO โˆ’ UTRECHT
GREEN-GIRAFFE.COM
7 CONFIDENTIAL
Over a decade of growth and industry recognition as a
leading financial advisor
INTRODUCTION TO GREEN GIRAFFE ADVISORY
0
100
200
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. IJGlobal โ€“ global renewable financial advisors by deal value as of Q3 2023 for the period 2010-2023
10-year growth in deal count
Rank Company1 Total (USD bn)1
1 Macquarie 75
2 Green Giraffe 53
3 BNP Paribas 49
4 EY 48
5 Santander 47
6 Sociรฉtรฉ Gรฉnรฉrale 45
7 Mitsubishi UFJ 45
8 KPMG 34
9 Citigroup 34
10 UBS 28
Ranked
in the world
by deal values
over the last
decade
#2
Best Financial Adviser
New technologies
Financial Advisory
of the year
Gemini Offshore
Wind Refinance
Deal of the year
Baltic Power
Offshore Wind
Deal of the year
Clรฉment Weber
Wind power list
Barbara Zuiderwijk
Wind power list
Marion Collette
Rising star
Awards
Leading renewables financial advisor by global rankings
7
Green Giraffe is the premier financial advisor for
offshore wind in APAC and beyond
8 CONFIDENTIAL
Involved in 310+ transactions
or projects with a total capacity
of 267+ GW worldwide
Shaping the energy transition
with a focus on offshore wind
Active across APAC with a track
record in 7 markets providing
M&A, debt and tender advisory
TW
Formosa 4
495 MW
TW
Formosa 2
376 MW
TW
Hai Long
1044 MW
JP
Tainai
684 MWv
Countries where Green Giraffe is active
KR
Debt
Ongoing
AU
Tender*2
Ongoing
TW
Formosa 2&3
2400 MW
TW
OW platform
2023
Equity reference Debt or tender reference
VN
Buy-side
1 GW +
PH
Undisclosed
Ongoing
AU/NZ
Sell-side
Ongoing
Recent offshore wind deals across APAC
INTRODUCTION TO GREEN GIRAFFE ADVISORY
JP
Tender
Ongoing

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Green Giraffe Advisory: Offshore wind market today.pdf

  • 1. Offshore wind market today MARCH 2024 โ€“ GREEN GIRAFFE ADVISORY 1 CONFIDENTIAL
  • 2. 65 GW of offshore wind has been installed around the globe as of 2023* 1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY 2 CONFIDENTIAL 135+ 71 112 191 225 237 396 482 2,263 2,343 3,010 8,043 13,601 26,563 Others Finland South Korea Sweden Japan Taiwan Vietnam France Belgium Denmark Netherlands Germany UK China *Orrick, Global Offshore Wind Report 2024; **WFO, Global offshore wind report (Feb 2023); others: US, IT, PT, IE, NO, ES, ***GWEC Global Offshore Wind Report 2022 Since 2010 there has been a plethora of OW projects reaching financial close across the globe โ€ข The past decade has seen a total of 206 closed deals with a total disclosed transaction volume of EUR 133.5 bn โ€ข Expected annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% until 2026 and up to 13.9% from 2026-30*** Global offshore wind market expected growth 2020 2030 2050 0 GW 25 GW 0 GW 31 GW 2 GW 126 GW 8 GW 79 GW 2 GW 181 GW 31 GW 439 GW 60 GW 490 GW 87 GW Source: DNV Energy transition outlook 2022 OW capacity (GW) Of which FOW Cumulative offshore wind capacity in operation as of 2022 (MW)** APAC ex-China will spearhead the next growth wave, surging to 490 GW installation by 2050 or ~44% market share APAC ex-China
  • 3. 179 73 55 4 47 0 0 0 0 <0 0 <0 <0 103 64 50 70 103 200 180 162 83 64 44 46 71 47.5 44.9 86 86 60 145 100 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Winning bid price (โ‚ฌ/MWh) Floor price, flat Fixed price, flat Fixed price, Indexed LCOE trend LCOE disconnected bids Fixed bottom offshore wind tender results indicate the steady LCOE declineโ€ฆuntil 2021 1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY 3 CONFIDENTIAL More zero / negative bids were seen in recent tenders structured for private sectors to shoulder the cost premium
  • 4. Over the past 2 years, the offshore wind sector has faced headwinds due to various factors OW CAPEX increasing by ~40% since 2021 and thus higher LCOE is driven by a mix of i) commodity price surge such as steel and key metals, ii) labour cost rise, iii) higher cost of capital and iv) supply chain challenges OW projects which have their power prices fixed first before finalising contracting for next 1-2 years have suffered the most 1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Aug-2020 Aug-2021 Sep-2022 Sep-2023 15-year swap rates (%) EUR 15Y swaps GBP 15Y swaps 3-4 % Increase Late-stage development projects are the most impacted, as the increased LCOE cannot be reflected in PPA Country Comment โ€ข Difficulties for awarded OW projects allocated as part of the CfD AR4, leading to some projects being cancelled or postponed โ€ข No OW allocated during the CfD AR5 with the cap price of 44 GBP / MWh (60 GBP / MWh in todayโ€™s price) โ€ข In late 2023, UK increased the cap price for OW projects to 73 GBP / MWh and for floating offshore wind projects from 116 GBP / MWh to GBP 176 / MWh, for CfD AR6 โ€ข Construction and supply chain issues, coupled with pandemic and macroeconomic headwinds, severely affects debt financing and investment appetite โ€ข Heavy localisation increases costs and risks โ€ข Corporate PPA in Rd 3 adds another layer of complexity โ€ข Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties 4 CONFIDENTIAL
  • 5. Country PPA structure Project pipeline Finance/ Macro Supply chain Summary 1 PH โœ“ Government RE auction โœ“ Various off-take routes โœ“ OW prioritised to increase energy independence; DOE targets 35% RE by 2030 โœ“ Bankable GEAP / FiT ร— Local interest rate is high under inflationary environment โœ“ RE Law supports import and encourage local job creation ร— Lack of port infra and grid capacity Promising market subject to ongoing regulatory and infra development JP โœ“ FiP scheme for fixed-bottom OW auctions โœ“ CPPA + off-take aggregator โœ“ 10 GW projects by 2030 โœ“ 1.8 GW Rd 2 released in 2023 and Q1 2024 โœ“ Continued monetary easing environment โœ“ Mature PF market w/ liquidity ร— FX volatility risk ร— Nascent supply chain due to lack of projects and scale ร— Lack of port infra and grid capacity Progressively rolling- out 10 GW OW target; clear auction plan but highly competitive KR โœ“ REC SPA with RPS Obligors (i.e. GENCOs) โœ“ REC SPA auction being implemented โœ“ 1 GW COD by 2026 โ€“ 14 GW pipeline target for COD by 2030 ร— Quasi-financial crisis and weakened currency in 2023 โœ“ Developed PF market โ€“ Starting from scratch โœ“ Well-established offshore marine sector Govt to streamline OW permitting framework TW ร— Zero-bid auction; need to develop CPPA market โœ“ CPPA with government credit support โœ“ 9 GW COD by 2027 โœ“ 6 GW auction in 2023/24 โœ“ Planning floating demo ร— IRS pricing increases โœ“ FX well under control ร— Construction delays causing liquidity issues ร— Localisation requirements increasing capex โœ“ Ready port infra, leading experts in place Most mature market in APAC. Clear long-term auction plan despite current headwinds AU ? Likely CPPA + government support โœ“ VIC: Targeting 2 GW COD by 2030, 9GW by 2040 โ€“ NSW: 5 GW OWZ โ€“ 3 other OWZ to be declared ร— Inflationary environment โœ“ Deep project financing market for OW ร— Pending development of OW related infra OWZ of each state to materialise from 2030 onwards VN ร— Unbankable USD-pegged fixed PPA with EVN โœ“ 6 GW OW in PDP 8 ร— Unclear route after phasing- out FiT ร— Hit by weakened exports and property prices โ€“ Mostly nearshore BOP (not vessel installed) ร— Rely on Chinese EPC Deep-water OW is not prioritised by govt in the short-term Overview of APAC offshore wind key markets 1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY 5 CONFIDENTIAL Note 1: Colors show the marketโ€™s attractiveness for historical (top-left) and current (bottom-right)
  • 6. BOSTON โˆ’ CAPE TOWN โˆ’ HAMBURG โˆ’ LONDON โˆ’ MADRID โˆ’ MARSEILLE โˆ’ PARIS โˆ’ SINGAPORE โˆ’ SYDNEY โˆ’ TOKYO โˆ’ UTRECHT GREEN-GIRAFFE.COM
  • 7. 7 CONFIDENTIAL Over a decade of growth and industry recognition as a leading financial advisor INTRODUCTION TO GREEN GIRAFFE ADVISORY 0 100 200 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1. IJGlobal โ€“ global renewable financial advisors by deal value as of Q3 2023 for the period 2010-2023 10-year growth in deal count Rank Company1 Total (USD bn)1 1 Macquarie 75 2 Green Giraffe 53 3 BNP Paribas 49 4 EY 48 5 Santander 47 6 Sociรฉtรฉ Gรฉnรฉrale 45 7 Mitsubishi UFJ 45 8 KPMG 34 9 Citigroup 34 10 UBS 28 Ranked in the world by deal values over the last decade #2 Best Financial Adviser New technologies Financial Advisory of the year Gemini Offshore Wind Refinance Deal of the year Baltic Power Offshore Wind Deal of the year Clรฉment Weber Wind power list Barbara Zuiderwijk Wind power list Marion Collette Rising star Awards Leading renewables financial advisor by global rankings 7
  • 8. Green Giraffe is the premier financial advisor for offshore wind in APAC and beyond 8 CONFIDENTIAL Involved in 310+ transactions or projects with a total capacity of 267+ GW worldwide Shaping the energy transition with a focus on offshore wind Active across APAC with a track record in 7 markets providing M&A, debt and tender advisory TW Formosa 4 495 MW TW Formosa 2 376 MW TW Hai Long 1044 MW JP Tainai 684 MWv Countries where Green Giraffe is active KR Debt Ongoing AU Tender*2 Ongoing TW Formosa 2&3 2400 MW TW OW platform 2023 Equity reference Debt or tender reference VN Buy-side 1 GW + PH Undisclosed Ongoing AU/NZ Sell-side Ongoing Recent offshore wind deals across APAC INTRODUCTION TO GREEN GIRAFFE ADVISORY JP Tender Ongoing