Third OECD-DOE Workshop: Unlocking finance and investment in offshore wind power and energy efficiency in public buildings in the Philippines, 6-7 March 2024, Makati, Philippines
2. 65 GW of offshore wind has been installed around the
globe as of 2023*
1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY
2 CONFIDENTIAL
135+
71
112
191
225
237
396
482
2,263
2,343
3,010
8,043
13,601
26,563
Others
Finland
South Korea
Sweden
Japan
Taiwan
Vietnam
France
Belgium
Denmark
Netherlands
Germany
UK
China
*Orrick, Global Offshore Wind Report 2024; **WFO, Global offshore wind report (Feb 2023); others: US, IT, PT, IE, NO, ES, ***GWEC Global Offshore Wind Report 2022
Since 2010 there has been a plethora of OW projects
reaching financial close across the globe
โข The past decade has seen a total of 206 closed deals with a
total disclosed transaction volume of EUR 133.5 bn
โข Expected annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% until 2026 and
up to 13.9% from 2026-30***
Global offshore wind market
expected growth
2020
2030
2050
0 GW 25 GW 0 GW
31 GW
2 GW
126 GW
8 GW
79 GW
2 GW
181 GW
31 GW
439 GW
60 GW
490 GW
87 GW
Source: DNV Energy transition outlook 2022
OW capacity (GW)
Of which FOW
Cumulative offshore wind capacity in
operation as of 2022 (MW)**
APAC ex-China will spearhead the next growth wave, surging to 490 GW installation by 2050 or ~44% market share
APAC ex-China
4. Over the past 2 years, the offshore wind sector has
faced headwinds due to various factors
OW CAPEX increasing by ~40% since 2021 and thus higher LCOE
is driven by a mix of i) commodity price surge such as steel and key
metals, ii) labour cost rise, iii) higher cost of capital and iv) supply
chain challenges
OW projects which have their power prices fixed first before
finalising contracting for next 1-2 years have suffered the most
1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Aug-2020 Aug-2021 Sep-2022 Sep-2023
15-year swap rates (%)
EUR 15Y swaps GBP 15Y swaps
3-4 %
Increase
Late-stage development projects are the most impacted, as the increased LCOE cannot be reflected in PPA
Country Comment
โข Difficulties for awarded OW projects allocated as part of
the CfD AR4, leading to some projects being cancelled
or postponed
โข No OW allocated during the CfD AR5 with the cap price
of 44 GBP / MWh (60 GBP / MWh in todayโs price)
โข In late 2023, UK increased the cap price for OW projects
to 73 GBP / MWh and for floating offshore wind projects
from 116 GBP / MWh to GBP 176 / MWh, for CfD AR6
โข Construction and supply chain issues, coupled with
pandemic and macroeconomic headwinds, severely
affects debt financing and investment appetite
โข Heavy localisation increases costs and risks
โข Corporate PPA in Rd 3 adds another layer of complexity
โข Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties
4 CONFIDENTIAL
5. Country PPA structure Project pipeline Finance/ Macro Supply chain Summary 1
PH
โ Government RE auction
โ Various off-take routes
โ OW prioritised to increase
energy independence; DOE
targets 35% RE by 2030
โ Bankable GEAP / FiT
ร Local interest rate is high
under inflationary
environment
โ RE Law supports import and
encourage local job creation
ร Lack of port infra and grid
capacity
Promising market
subject to ongoing
regulatory and infra
development
JP
โ FiP scheme for fixed-bottom
OW auctions
โ CPPA + off-take aggregator
โ 10 GW projects by 2030
โ 1.8 GW Rd 2 released in
2023 and Q1 2024
โ Continued monetary
easing environment
โ Mature PF market w/ liquidity
ร FX volatility risk
ร Nascent supply chain due to
lack of projects and scale
ร Lack of port infra and grid
capacity
Progressively rolling-
out 10 GW OW target;
clear auction plan but
highly competitive
KR
โ REC SPA with RPS
Obligors (i.e. GENCOs)
โ REC SPA auction being
implemented
โ 1 GW COD by 2026
โ 14 GW pipeline target for
COD by 2030
ร Quasi-financial crisis and
weakened currency in 2023
โ Developed PF market
โ Starting from scratch
โ Well-established offshore
marine sector
Govt to streamline OW
permitting framework
TW
ร Zero-bid auction; need to
develop CPPA market
โ CPPA with government
credit support
โ 9 GW COD by 2027
โ 6 GW auction in 2023/24
โ Planning floating demo
ร IRS pricing increases
โ FX well under control
ร Construction delays causing
liquidity issues
ร Localisation requirements
increasing capex
โ Ready port infra, leading
experts in place
Most mature market in
APAC. Clear long-term
auction plan despite
current headwinds
AU
? Likely CPPA + government
support
โ VIC: Targeting 2 GW COD by
2030, 9GW by 2040
โ NSW: 5 GW OWZ
โ 3 other OWZ to be declared
ร Inflationary environment
โ Deep project financing
market for OW
ร Pending development of
OW related infra
OWZ of each state to
materialise from 2030
onwards
VN
ร Unbankable USD-pegged
fixed PPA with EVN
โ 6 GW OW in PDP 8
ร Unclear route after phasing-
out FiT
ร Hit by weakened exports and
property prices
โ Mostly nearshore BOP (not
vessel installed)
ร Rely on Chinese EPC
Deep-water OW is not
prioritised by govt in
the short-term
Overview of APAC offshore wind key markets
1. OFFSHORE WIND MARKET TODAY
5 CONFIDENTIAL Note 1: Colors show the marketโs attractiveness for historical (top-left) and current (bottom-right)
6. BOSTON โ CAPE TOWN โ HAMBURG โ LONDON โ MADRID โ MARSEILLE โ PARIS โ SINGAPORE โ SYDNEY โ TOKYO โ UTRECHT
GREEN-GIRAFFE.COM
7. 7 CONFIDENTIAL
Over a decade of growth and industry recognition as a
leading financial advisor
INTRODUCTION TO GREEN GIRAFFE ADVISORY
0
100
200
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. IJGlobal โ global renewable financial advisors by deal value as of Q3 2023 for the period 2010-2023
10-year growth in deal count
Rank Company1 Total (USD bn)1
1 Macquarie 75
2 Green Giraffe 53
3 BNP Paribas 49
4 EY 48
5 Santander 47
6 Sociรฉtรฉ Gรฉnรฉrale 45
7 Mitsubishi UFJ 45
8 KPMG 34
9 Citigroup 34
10 UBS 28
Ranked
in the world
by deal values
over the last
decade
#2
Best Financial Adviser
New technologies
Financial Advisory
of the year
Gemini Offshore
Wind Refinance
Deal of the year
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Offshore Wind
Deal of the year
Clรฉment Weber
Wind power list
Barbara Zuiderwijk
Wind power list
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Rising star
Awards
Leading renewables financial advisor by global rankings
7
8. Green Giraffe is the premier financial advisor for
offshore wind in APAC and beyond
8 CONFIDENTIAL
Involved in 310+ transactions
or projects with a total capacity
of 267+ GW worldwide
Shaping the energy transition
with a focus on offshore wind
Active across APAC with a track
record in 7 markets providing
M&A, debt and tender advisory
TW
Formosa 4
495 MW
TW
Formosa 2
376 MW
TW
Hai Long
1044 MW
JP
Tainai
684 MWv
Countries where Green Giraffe is active
KR
Debt
Ongoing
AU
Tender*2
Ongoing
TW
Formosa 2&3
2400 MW
TW
OW platform
2023
Equity reference Debt or tender reference
VN
Buy-side
1 GW +
PH
Undisclosed
Ongoing
AU/NZ
Sell-side
Ongoing
Recent offshore wind deals across APAC
INTRODUCTION TO GREEN GIRAFFE ADVISORY
JP
Tender
Ongoing