Developing the India Smallholder Dairy
Value Chain Impact Pathway(s)
Michael Kidoido
Workshop on Smallholder Dairy Value C...
• The L&F CRP’s objective in India is:
“To sustainably increase the productivity of small holder
daily production to incre...
Rationale
• There is an increasing expectation of the CG to
demonstrate that it is making a difference in
the welfare of b...
• Impact Pathways (IPs) are result chains that represent the steps from
outputs to impact at scale, through successive out...
Theory of change (TOC)
• ToCs extend IPs by describing the causal assumptions and risks
behind these links
– Assumptions a...
Applications of Impact Pathways and ToCs
• Designing and planning interventions
 Design interventions
 Understanding and...
Characteristics of IPs/ToCs
• Are time dependent
 Reflect understanding up to that point in time
 Should evolve to refle...
So what should IPs/ToCs inlcude?
• Research outputs
• Capacity change outcomes
• Behavioral change outcomes
• Enabling env...
 Capacity development approaches
 Professional development courses
 On the job trainings and activities
Research output...
 Change in knowledge, awareness and skills
 Change in capacity of beneficiaries and intermediaries
Capacity change outco...
• New policies and policy instruments
• New or better functioning institutions
(formal or informal)
 Functional seed dist...
• These are largely the CRP IDOs
• Increased productivity for beneficiaries
• Improved distribution of opportunities, inco...
• Enhanced livelihoods in target domains across
the program
 Increased food security
 Reduced rural poverty
 Reduced un...
Generic program Impact Pathway(s)/TOC
Assumption:
Increased and equitable
consumption of ASF will
improve nutrition and
he...
Nested value chain Impact pathway(s)/Tocs
• L&F is a complex program and needs nested IPs
• Nested IPs can be around
 By ...
“Systems assessment to support
value chain transformation ”
An example of a nested IP from Tanzania
dairy value chain:
Impact Pathway 3: Systems assessments to support value chain
transformation.
Improved household
nutrition and health statu...
“Dairy practices for farmers and
traders Toc”
An example of a sub-ToC from “Innovative
strategies to increase consumption ...
PRA undertaken on best
practices
Evidence-based
information on tested best
practices
Farmers and traders
informed training...
Program M&E/IA next steps
• Develop and publish the Bihar Dairy Value
chain ToC/IP narratives
• Develop the Bihar Dairy va...
Objectives of the workshop
 Communicate and validate the program’s intervention
logic,
 Question and clarify the program...
CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR Research
P...
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Developing the India smallholder dairy value chain impact pathway(s)

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Presented by Michael Kidoido at the Workshop on Smallholder Dairy Value Chain Transformation in Bihar—Challenges, Opportunities and the Way Forward, Patna, India, 1-2 August 2014

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  • The spatial heterogeneity of bio—physical and socio-economic pattern is quite big
  • In Blue what we have already done in read what possibly should be done today
    Target zone = we want to capture high poverty with livestock, and also a urban and rural component
  • In Blue what we have already done in read what possibly should be done today
  • We used the poverty map, and used the median to define high and low (right map), then we have aggregated this result to district level (left map)
    Is the median a good value? We will discuss this just later on…
  • The two two district level maps into a domain maps that shows identify zone where both poverty and bovine density is high
  • We propose to select site from the green areas as first priority, from red and orange as second priority of no agreement can be found but not from the white zone.
    If it becomes an issue, rural to rural and rural to urban will be introduced while selecting the blocks with the selected district at a later stage.
  • Workout in small groups if the thresholds are ok, modify them if necessary. There is an excel file that automatically computes the new list of sites
    VARIANTE if under time pressure : let each participant propose a value on a flip chart while going for coffee and use the average of this
    You might want to negotiate if we use only the green site (high poverty and livestock) or if we also include yellow (high poverty low livestock)
    Also here you need to negotiate if there are areas that are absolutely no go, for example because of existing conflict, just too far away to reach, just not relevant maybe because global datasets are not very accurate)
  • Collect here the different soft criteria, you can work in small groups.
    VARIANTE : give 5 papers to every participant and ask them to think of criterias (allows to give a voice to silent participants) then collect them, order them so that you can agree on a final set of criterias
  • There is a scoring sheet ready for each group

    Use the marking system in used in school or just 10 excellent 1 very bad
  • You can do this if you have time. I think you can learn a lot from this negotiation
    VARIANT : just compare the group work, and we will use an average of all the groups for the final stakeholder ranking
  • Developing the India smallholder dairy value chain impact pathway(s)

    1. 1. Developing the India Smallholder Dairy Value Chain Impact Pathway(s) Michael Kidoido Workshop on Smallholder Dairy Value Chain Transformation in Bihar – Challenges, Opportunities and the Way Forward Patna, India, 1-2 August 2014
    2. 2. • The L&F CRP’s objective in India is: “To sustainably increase the productivity of small holder daily production to increase the supply and affordability of milk and dairy products for poor producers and for poor consumers.” • However to do this?  Develop articulate pathways to impact with partners,  Identify how interventions will deliver the benefits,  and how actors will have to change to cause the desired outcome, will need to be clearly defined and mapped out. Introduction
    3. 3. Rationale • There is an increasing expectation of the CG to demonstrate that it is making a difference in the welfare of beneficiaries • An increasing need for development programs to monitor and adjust progress towards achieving impact • Its important to monitor and learn during program implementation to increase the probability of progress towards impact
    4. 4. • Impact Pathways (IPs) are result chains that represent the steps from outputs to impact at scale, through successive outcomes resulting from adoption and use of program outputs by various stakeholders along the paths. Development Outcomes Impact Research Outputs Research Outcomes Impact pathways and Theories of Change (ToC)
    5. 5. Theory of change (TOC) • ToCs extend IPs by describing the causal assumptions and risks behind these links – Assumptions are supporting factors and risks are confounding factors – If assumptions and risks associated with the arrows are identified and explained, then have a ToC. Development Outcomes Impact Research Outputs Research Outcomes Description of causal mechanism, with evidence Description of causal mechanism, with evidence
    6. 6. Applications of Impact Pathways and ToCs • Designing and planning interventions  Design interventions  Understanding and agreeing on interventions  Ex-ante evaluation of interventions • Managing interventions  Designing monitoring and evaluation systems  Managing adaptively • Assessing interventions  Designing evaluation questions, methods and tools  Making causal claims  Reporting performance • Scaling  Generalizing of the theory to other locations
    7. 7. Characteristics of IPs/ToCs • Are time dependent  Reflect understanding up to that point in time  Should evolve to reflect current thinking • Have different purposes  Hence likely to be different • Need to recognize uncertainties  They are deterministic • Can be ex-ante or ex-post
    8. 8. So what should IPs/ToCs inlcude? • Research outputs • Capacity change outcomes • Behavioral change outcomes • Enabling environment outcomes • Direct benefits outcomes • Program level impact
    9. 9.  Capacity development approaches  Professional development courses  On the job trainings and activities Research outputs These include information, understanding and new approaches of putting research into action
    10. 10.  Change in knowledge, awareness and skills  Change in capacity of beneficiaries and intermediaries Capacity change outcomes Behavioral change outcomes • Change in actual practices of beneficiaries and “next users”  Land use planners using GIS maps  Smallholders adopt improved crop varieties  NARES approach to soil management adapted to local conditions
    11. 11. • New policies and policy instruments • New or better functioning institutions (formal or informal)  Functional seed distribution system  Increased value chain productivity  Policies e.g better use of natural resources adopted Enabling environment outcomes
    12. 12. • These are largely the CRP IDOs • Increased productivity for beneficiaries • Improved distribution of opportunities, income, food security and nutrition benefits to the target group • Reduced degradation of natural resources • Examples:  Increased income for smallholder farmers from adopting improved varieties  Increased consumption of biofortified foods  Reduced loss of biodiversity and genetic resources Direct benefits outcomes
    13. 13. • Enhanced livelihoods in target domains across the program  Increased food security  Reduced rural poverty  Reduced under nutrition  Enhanced sustainability of natural resources in target domain across program Program impacts
    14. 14. Generic program Impact Pathway(s)/TOC Assumption: Increased and equitable consumption of ASF will improve nutrition and health.
    15. 15. Nested value chain Impact pathway(s)/Tocs • L&F is a complex program and needs nested IPs • Nested IPs can be around  By types of strategies being applied  By target groups • In our case they are the value chains • So far we have developed IPs for:  Tanzania,  Uganda,  Nicaragua,  Vietnam, Ethiopia and Egypt. • These allow closer monitoring, evaluation and learning at the value chain level
    16. 16. “Systems assessment to support value chain transformation ” An example of a nested IP from Tanzania dairy value chain:
    17. 17. Impact Pathway 3: Systems assessments to support value chain transformation. Improved household nutrition and health status Increased household income from dairy production PROGRAMOUTPUT CHANGEINPRACTICEATTITUDE ANDKNOWLEDGE IMMEDIATE OUTCOMES Evidence of tested best dairy practices INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES Farmers use best dairy practices Decreased outbreaks of animal diseases INTERVENTIONS Provide evidence for scaling out and scaling up; co-create technologies and do action research; use diagnostic studies to design research Develop the capacity of traders associations in market information, quality assurance, and business management Rational milk marketing options Increased household asset ownership "Next users" and researchers adapt better mechanisms of communicating evidence of best dairy practices Unchanged status of natural resources Improved quality and of dairy products lower incidences of zoonotic diseases Healthier dairy animals Build capacity of actors in advocacy and lobbying skills and link farmers’ groups to apex bodies including Tanzania Dairy Forum Strategies for engaging policy and regulatory bodies Sustainable farmer groups and organizations More localized and incentive based regulatory standards Improved quality and of dairy products lower incidences of zoonotic diseases Rational milk marketing options Better environment for pro-poor dairy development The DDF lobbies for required policy shift
    18. 18. “Dairy practices for farmers and traders Toc” An example of a sub-ToC from “Innovative strategies to increase consumption of dairy products” impact pathway:
    19. 19. PRA undertaken on best practices Evidence-based information on tested best practices Farmers and traders informed training offered Farmers and traders KAS increased Farmers and traders use best practices Assumptions: • Practices are inexpensive • Actors can see the benefits • Regulations are supportive • Actors are subsidized for social cost avoidance • There is incentive to adopt the best practices • Collective action occurs Examples of research questions from the assumptions: • How to best convince actors to adopt? • What incentives might be used? • How can benefits from new practices be widely demonstrated? • Which regulatory regime is best suited to facilitate and support the new best airy practices?
    20. 20. Program M&E/IA next steps • Develop and publish the Bihar Dairy Value chain ToC/IP narratives • Develop the Bihar Dairy value chain L&F specific MEL frameworks based on the value chains Impact Pathway(s) and ToCs • Support ongoing value chain evaluations to continue testing L&F Theory of change
    21. 21. Objectives of the workshop  Communicate and validate the program’s intervention logic,  Question and clarify the program’s potential for achieving impact,  Begin to lay the building blocks for designing a MEL framework,  Refine the theories of change and the underlying assumptions of causality for the four main intervention areas of the Bihar Dairy Value chain,  Sketch the impact pathways of the four components.
    22. 22. CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish aims to increase the productivity of small-scale livestock and fish systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable across the developing world. CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish livestockfish.cgiar.org

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