IEP_GPI_2020_Presentation.pptx

June 2020
GLOBAL
PEACE
INDEX
2020
Measuring peace in a complex world

Institute for Economics & Peace
Institute for Economics and Peace
Research used extensively
by organisations, including
the OECD, Commonwealth
Secretariat, World Bank and
the United Nations.
Work is included in 1,000s of
university courses
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of IEP reports in the last 12
months
16BN
2019 MEDIA REACH
900M
SOCIAL REACH
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COUNTRY REACH
10
PUBLISHED REPORTS
3000
BOOK REFERENCES
1.3M
UNIQUE VISITORS

IEP International Offices
SYDNEY
Australia
NEW YORK
USA
BRUSSELS
Belgium
THE HAGUE
The Netherlands
MEXICO CITY
Mexico
HARARE
Zimbabwe

The Global Peace Index
99.7%
of world’s population
covered
14thyear
Now in its Ranks
163
countries
Using
23
Indicators weighed
on a 1-5 scale
Developed by the
Institute for
Economics and
Peace
Guided and
overseen by a
panel of
International
Experts

Including: intensity of
organized internal
conflicts, relations with
neighbouring countries
and number of deaths
from conflict
6
measures of
ongoing domestic
and international
conflict
Including: number
of refugees and
IDPs, impact of
terrorism, homicide
and incarceration
rates
10
measures of
societal safety
and security
Including: military
expenditure,
number of armed
service personnel,
ease of access to
small weapons
7
measures of
militarisation
The Global Peace Index Indicators

The Global Peac Index Indicators
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2020

2020 Key Highlights
80countries deteriorated
81countries became
more peaceful
The average level of global country
peacefulness has deteriorated by
0.34%
This is the ninth deterioration in
the last 12 years.
Deteriorations primarily driven by
changes in:
• Political Terror Scale
• Refugees and IDPs
• Intensity of Internal Conflict
Improvements were driven by
changes in:
• Terrorism Impact
• Homicides
• Weapons Imports and Exports

2020 highlights
Iceland is the most peaceful country in the world
Azerbaijan and Armenia had the largest improvement
Russia and Eurasia had the largest regional improvement
Europe remains the most peaceful region, despite ongoing
political instability and a small deterioration in peacefulness

2020 highlights - continued
Afghanistan remains the world’s least peaceful nation. It has
now been deteriorating for over a decade
South America and Central America had the largest
regional deteriorations
Benin and Nicaragua had the largest deteriorations
Middle East and North Africa remains the least peaceful
region. However, it did improve on deaths from terrorism and
internal conflict

10 most peaceful countries
ICELAND
Rank change:
1
NEW ZEALAND
Rank change:
2
CANADA
Rank change:
6
PORTUGAL
Rank change:
3
AUSTRIA
Rank change:
4
DENMARK
Rank change:
5
JAPAN
Rank change: 2
9
CZECH REPUBLIC
Rank change: 1
8
SWITZERLAND
Rank change:
10
SINGAPORE
Rank change:
7

10 least peaceful countries
RUSSIA
Rank change:
154
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
Rank change: 3
155
CONGO, DRC
Rank change:
156
LIBYA
Rank change:
157
SOMALIA
Rank change: 3
158
AFGHANISTAN
Rank change:
163
SYRIA
Rank change:
162
IRAQ
Rank change: 1
161
SOUTH SUDAN
Rank change: 1
160
YEMEN
Rank change:
159

ARMENIA
RANK: 99
Rose 15 places
5 most improved countries
HONDURAS
RANK: 119
Rose 4 places
SOUTH AFRICA
RANK: 123
Rose 3 places
AZERBAJIAN
RANK: 120
Rose 12 places
BAHRAIN
RANK: 110
Rose 9 places

5 most deteriorated countries
NICARAGUA
RANK: 135
Fell 15 places
VENEZUELA
RANK: 149
Fell 4 places
CHILE
RANK: 45
Fell 17 places
NIGER
RANK: 138
Fell 11 places
BENIN
RANK: 106
Fell 35 places

Peace since 2008
Peacefulness has declined year on year for nine of the last 12 years.
2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
2.10
2.12
2008 2013 2018
GPI
SCORE
OVERALL SCORE TREND
Less
Peaceful
->
<-
More
Peaceful
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2008 2013 2018
YOY % CHANGE

countries
became less
peaceful
81
countries
became more
peaceful
Peace declined
2.49%
Over the last
decade
Improvements and deteriorations, 2008-2020
79

Rising inequality in Global Peace
The gap between the least and most peaceful countries continues to grow.
Most Peaceful
Least Peaceful
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CHANGE
IN
GPI
SCORE
(2008
=
1)
<-
More
Peaceful
Less
Peaceful
->

Trends in key Safety and Security indicators
After peaking in 2014, deaths from terrorism are now at the lowest level in a decade
Almost 70 million people have now been displaced by violence
The average global homicide rate continues to fall
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
TOTAL
DEATHS
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM
Internally
Displaced
People
Refugees
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
MILLIONS
OF
PEOPLE
REFUGEES AND IDPS
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80
8.00
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
RATE
PER
100,000
HOMICIDE RATE

Trends in key Ongoing Conflict indicators
Battle Deaths continue to fall after peak in 2014
However, the total number of active conflicts has not fallen
The average intensity of internal conflict is still rising
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
NUMBER
OF
DEATHS
BATTLE DEATHS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
ACTIVE
CONFLICTS
TOTAL CONFLICTS
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
AVERAGE
INTENSITY
INTENSITY OF INTERNAL CONFLICT

Trends in key Militarisation indicators
The fall in the size of armed forces now appears to be levelling off
Despite high spending by global superpowers, average military expenditure has declined
Weapons imports and exports have had a moderate but sustained increase
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
RATE
PER
100,000
PEOPLE
ARMED FORCES PERSONNEL
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.10
2.30
2.50
2.70
2.90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
OF
GDP
MILITARY EXPENDITURE
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
TREND
INDICATOR
VALUES
WEAPONS IMPORTS

Civil Unrest- Highlights
Europe had the largest number of protests 1,600 events from 2011 to 2018.
Sixty-five per cent of the demonstrations in Europe were nonviolent.
The number of riots around the world increased by 282 per cent from 2011 to
2019 while general strikes increased by 821 per cent.
From 2011 to 2019, the number of riots, general strikes and anti-government
demonstrations increased by 244 per cent globally.
96 countries recorded a violent demonstration in 2019, as citizens protest
against a range of issues - economic hardship, race, police brutality and
corruption.
The impending economic recession will increase the likelihood of
demonstrations and riots.

The Economic
Value of Peace
03.

Which is equivalent to
10.6%
of total world GDP
OR
$1909
per person
The economic impact of violence 2020
$1.45
TRILLION
Could be directed to
other economic activities
If the world decreased
violence by 10%...
$14.5
trillion

Military expenditure accounts for over 40% of the total economic impact of violence.
Breakdown of the economic impact of violence
Military
expenditure,
40.5%
Internal security
expenditure, 34.1%
Private security
expenditure, 5.6%
Homicide,
7.7%
Suicide, 5.2%
Conflict, 3.6%
Violent crime, 2.8%
Other, 0.5%

COVID-19 and Peace - Key Findings
Level of air travel strongly correlated with the take up of COVID-19.
Drug dealing and other types of crime have seen a temporary reduction as a result of social
isolation. However, reports of domestic violence, suicide and mental illness increased.
US and Europe are expected to see an increase in political instability.
Most indicators in the Global Peace Index are expected to deteriorate. The one area that may
improve is military expenditure, as countries redirect resources to propping up their economies.

COVID-19 and Peace - Key Findings
Countries with low credit ratings, such as Brazil, Pakistan, Argentina and Venezuela may not be able
to borrow enough to sustain their economic recoveries, potentially leading to greater social unrest.
Overseas Developmental Aid is likely to decrease as funds are used to support domestic economies.
Further stressing fragile countries, such as Liberia, Afghanistan, Burundi and South Sudan.
US and China relations are deteriorating, affecting many multilateral organisations – WHO, WTO, UN
Security Council.
Support of UN Peacekeeping operations is likely to decrease.

Positive Peace and pandemic recovery.
Countries with better financial conditions and higher Positive Peace are most likely to have the
best outcomes through the crisis.
PPI RANK
-
Higher Positive Peace Lower Positive Peace
Switzerland
Australia
New Zealand
Norway
Iceland
Germany
Japan
Estonia
Finland
Sweden
Denmark
Ireland
Netherlands
Canada
UK
Austria
Spain
Belgium
France
Portugal
Slovenia
Italy
Greece
Latvia
Poland
Slovakia
Hungary
Brazil
South Africa
US
South Korea
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Chile
Russia
China
Mexico
Israel
Indonesia
Turkey
Colombia
India
Source: IEP
Higher
Lower
Economic
Strength

Past US recessions required cuts in the Fed Funds rates of five per cent. At 1.5 per cent, there is little room
for large interest rate cuts.
Interest rate responses to US recessions
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
First Oil Shock
(1973 - 1974)
Second Oil Shock
(1979)
Early 1990s
Recession (1990 -
1991)
Dot Com Bubble &
9/11 Attacks (2000
- 2002)
Global Financial
Crisis (2007 -
2009)
COVID-19 (2020)
EFFECTIVE
FEDS
FUND
RATE
(%PA) Pre-Recession Peak
Post-Recession Trough
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

Peace and
Ecological Threat
05.

Water-related risk by region
Water-related risks are highest in the Middle East and North Africa.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Middle East &
North Africa
South Asia sub-Saharan
Africa
Central
America & the
Caribbean
Asia-Pacific Europe Russia &
Eurasia
North America South America
PER
CENT
OF
CATCHMENTS
Low Low to Medium Medium to High High Extremely High

Food security vs. Positive Peace
Countries with low levels of Positive Peace have higher levels of food insecurity.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
FOOD
SECURITY
POSITIVE PEACE INDEX
r = 0.91
Less Peaceful 
 More Peaceful
More
Food
Secure


Less
Food
Secure

GlobalPeaceIndex
@GlobPeaceIndex
@GlobalPeaceIndex
visionofhumanity.org
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