The document outlines objectives and an overview of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Phase 2 project. The project aims to 1) enhance coordinated biophysical and economic models, 2) strengthen capacity for ex ante impact assessment, and 3) assess potential returns to technologies under global futures. It involves various CGIAR centers and aims to link crop models with economic models to analyze technologies, climate change impacts, and food security to 2050.

1. Global Futures and
Strategic Foresight
CIAT, Cali
24 February 2014

2. Objectives
• Enhance a coordinated suite of biophysical and
economic models
• Strengthen capacity and build a community of
practice for ex ante impact assessment
• Assess potential returns to a range of possible
technologies and investments under alternative
global futures

3. Overview
• Global Futures Phase 1 (2010 – 2013)
• Funding from BMGF and CCAFS
• IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICRISAT, IRRI; ICRAF, ILRI
• Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Phase 2
(2013 – 2016)
• Funding from BMGF, CCAFS and PIM
• Joined by ICARDA, IITA, IWMI and WorldFish

4. Modeling climate impacts on
agriculture
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

5. AgMIP climate scenarios to
2050
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

6. The role of agricultural
technologies
Source: IFPRI (2014)
• Baseline to
2050, including climate
change
• Linked crop models and
economic models
• Assessed 11
technologies for
maize, rice and wheat
• Impacts on
prices, yields, risk of
hunger

7. IMPACT – Una Red de
Modulos
• Módulos Actuales
• Modelo Económico
• Producción de Cultivos
• Producción Ganadero
• Producción de productos procesados
• Modelos Hídricos
• Modelos de Nutrición
• Modelo de análisis de beneficio y costo
• Futuros módulos:
• Agropecuario
• Mejorado Producción ganadero
• Módulo de biocombustibles
7

8. Producción Demanda y Precios
Producción
Prices
Demanda
• Crecimiento exogeno
• Precios del productos
• Gastos de producción
• Equilibra demanda y
producción
• Ingresos
• Precios
• Población
8

9. Geografía en IMPACT
159
154
320
• Países
• Cuencas
• Unidades de
Producción
Agraria

10. Producción y Demanda
• 56 cultivos
• Producción
• Comercio
• Consumo
• Demanda desagregado
por país y posiblemente por tipo de consumidor (i.e.
urbano-rural, rico-pobre)
10

11. Actividades y Productos – La cadena de
producción
Actividad Prima
Producto
• Produce
algun
producto
• Se vende en
el Mercado
Actividad
Procesador
Productos
procesados
• Demanda
productos
• Produce
nuevos
productos
procesados
• Soybean Oil
(csbol)
• Soybean
Meal
(csbml)
11

12. Ag R&D Cycle
Clayuca
FLAR
Policy
Recommendations &
strategies
Cassava,
Beans, Rice,
Forages
Problem
identification
Intervention
Priority setting
Cassava, Be
ans, Rice
Foresight &
ex-ante eval
Outputs, Outcomes
Impacts
M&E, review
(Ex-post evaluation)

13. Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
DELPHI Process
(
y)
(
DSSAT,
Biophysical
models
y)
Shocks
Priority setting
New technologies
Strategies, policies
Dalys, Env
Services, Gender
issues, other
( y, P )
IMPACT
Model
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

14. Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
(
y)
(
DSSAT,
Biophysical
models
y)
Shocks
Priority setting
New technologies
Strategies, policies
• DSSAT: Participated in
DELPHI Process
various workshops and
meetings (including AgMip)
Dalys, Env
Services,
• Set up of a working High Gender
issues,
Performance Cluster for other
crop modeling
∆y, ∆P
• Data collection, calibration
of cultivars (beans)
• Following the revamping of
cassava model
IMPACT
Model
• Data collection:
management practices
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

15. Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
• Expert surveys to detect
Technologies
constraints: Cassava, rice
• Future: expert survey for
DSSAT, Biop
hysical
beans, expert consultation
for forages models
• Multicriteria surveys to
Shocks
stakeholders: Cassava, rice
• Foresight workshops for
agriculture in LAC
Priority setting
New technologies
Strategies, policies
DELPHI Process
Dalys, Env
Services, Gender
issues, other
∆y, ∆P
IMPACT
Model
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

16. Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
• minor participation in the
Technologies
elaboration of the new IMPACT
• Run a few models, Biop ones:
DSSAT, main
hysical
• Herbicide tolerant Cassava
models
• Biological control of mealybug
• Subutilized
• Future work: Shocks
• Analyze new technologies
• Model for LAC
• Model commodity markets:
Priority setting
Cassva and beans
New technologies
Strategies, policies
DELPHI Process
Dalys, Env
Services, Gender
issues, other
∆y, ∆P
IMPACT
Model
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

17. Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
DSSAT,
Biophysical
models
Shocks
Priority setting
New technologies
Strategies, policies
• RTB CRP ps project
• SetDELPHI Process
priorities for:
rice, beans, forages Dalys, Env
• Analyze and keep Services, Gender
track of
issues, other
changes in major trends and
drivers
∆y, ∆P for CIAT Commodities /
in LAC
• Strategic foresight for main
crops: multidisciplinary
committees
IMPACT
Model
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

18. Opportunities GFSF & CIAT
• Internal:
• Priority setting for crop groups: support for R&D agenda
• Identifying opportunities and risks
• Linking research to impacts: donors
• CGIAR level
• Increase communication among centers and CRPs
• Help setting credible IDOs & Outcomes
• Policy making
• Scenario based global modeling: support decision making
• Work with NARs in strategic planning