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ASIAPACIFICHEADOFRESEARCH
NICHOLASHOLT
15TH OCTOBER2015
AGENDA
MACROECONOMICBACKDROP
CAPITALMARKETSTRENDS
HOWTHEOFFICEISCHANGING
INFRASTRUCTURE
THEEMERGINGMARKETSSLOWDOWN
RECENTGROWTHDRIVERS
EmergingMarket
Commodityexporting
Manufacturingled
FUTUREGROWTHDRIVERS
Advancedeconomies
Commodityimporting
Services/Techled
USGROWTHENGINE
3.9%GDPGrowth
(yeartoQ2)
CAPITALMARKETSTRENDS
Someemergingmarketstoseedrop
inoutboundcapital
MoreproactiveUSbuyers
Europeanopportunistmoney
Moreinterestinspecialistsectors
Deregulation
PRIMEOFFICEYIELDS(END‘15ESTIMATE)
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Bengaluru
Mumbai
Delhi
MexicoCity
Shanghai
Beijing
Melbourne
Sydney
Chicago
WashingtonDC
LosAngeles
Frankfurt
SanFrancisco
NewYorkCity
Madrid
Tokyo
Singapore
London
Paris
HongKong
Source:KnightFrank/NewmarkGrubbKnightFrank
CROSSBORDERINVESTORSPROMINENTININDIA,SGANDMALAYSIA
INVESTMENTINTOREALESTATEH1‘15($M)
Source:KnightFrank/RealCapitalAnalytics
H1 2015 Domestic Foreign % Foreign
US $777,728 $42,456 5%
UK $169,691 $38,710 19%
CHINA $106,011 $17,902 14%
JAPAN $104,284 $3,800 4%
AUSTRALIA $74,919 $5,575 7%
HONGKONG $6,872 $1,560 18%
NEWZEALAND $6,121 $1,170 16%
SINGAPORE $2,954 $2,259 43%
SOUTHKOREA $1,903 $842 31%
MALAYSIA $1,005 $1,454 59%
THAILAND $1,468 $175 11%
INDIA $493 $998 67%
TOPTENOFFICERENTALGROWTHTO2018
Source:KnightFrank/NewmarkGrubbKnightFrank
1 6
2 7
3 8
4 9
5 10
22% 14%
21% 13%
20% 12%
16% 10%
16% 9%
MADRID LONDON
MUMBAI LOSANGELES
SANFRANCISCO HONGKONG
MELBOURNE PARIS
BENGALURU CHICAGO
HOWTHEOFFICEISCHANGING
COOLOFFICES
Courting‘Millennials’
Desksout/sofasin
Growingfastinpopularity
IMPACTONDENSITIES?
Typical space allocation per worker
Source:KnightFrank/NewmarkGrubbKnightFrank
SHANGHAI NEWYORK PARIS LONDON SYDNEY MUMBAI
160 150 150
120 120
75
100
SINGAPORE
INFRASTRUCTURE1:TRANSPORT
Airport:Dubai,Beijing,Singapore,
HongKong
Intercityrail:Japan,SEAsia
Metro:Acrossmostmarkets
INFRASTRUCTURE2:INDIA
Delhi/MumbaiIndustrialCorridor
920mileslong,186mileswide
Newrail,seaports,airports,
and100smartcities
INFRASTRUCTURE3:ONEBELTONEROAD
China:OneBeltOneRoad
NewSilkRoadEconomicBelt
21st-CenturyMaritimeSilkRoad
SUMMARY
Growthshiftingfromemergingtomaturemarketswithglobalcitiestocontinuetoattract
significantinvestmentcapital
Officemarketsarechangingintermsoftenantprofile,designandfit-out,respondingtothe
needsofbusinessesandemployees
InfrastructureissupportingthedevelopmentoftheGlobalCitiesandwillprovideopportunities
forinvestmentgoingforward
PRIMEYIELDS:INDIANCITIESAHEADOFNEWYORK&LONDON
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Bengaluru
Mumbai
Delhi
MexicoCity
Shanghai
Beijing
Melbourne
Sydney
Chicago
WashingtonDC
LosAngeles
Frankfurt
SanFrancisco
NewYorkCity
Madrid
Tokyo
Singapore
London
Paris
HongKong
Source:KnightFrank/NewmarkGrubbKnightFrank
CURRENTRENTALS:MUMBAIANDDELHIARELOWERTHANTHE2007PEAK
Source:KnightFrank/NewmarkGrubbKnightFrank
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0% Beijing
SanFrancisco
Melbourne
Sydney
London
WashingtonDC
Bengaluru
MexicoCity
Shanghai
LosAngeles
Frankfurt
HongKong
NewYorkCity
Chicago
Paris
Mumbai
Delhi
Tokyo
Madrid
Singapore
FUTURERENTALGROWTH:MUMBAI&BENGALURUAMONGTOP5
Source:KnightFrank/NewmarkGrubbKnightFrank
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Madrid
Mumbai
SanFrancisco
Melbourne
Bengaluru
London
LosAngeles
HongKong
Paris
Chicago
WashingtonDC
Sydney
Shanghai
NewYorkCity
Tokyo
Delhi
Frankfurt
MexicoCity
Beijing
Singapore
DMICAMONGSTTHETOP5
Source:KnightFrank/NewmarkGrubbKnightFrank
Triplingindustrialoutputandquadrupling
exportsinthenext5years
GlobalITmajorstohelptransformationof
SmartCitiesonthiscorridor
Delhitobecomeaneconomicanchorof
NorthIndia
CAPITALFLOWS
ForeigninvestmentinIndianRealEstate
doubleofthedomesticflow
REITtogiveafurtherpushtocommercial
realestate;Couldattractinvestments
worth$100bninthenextfewyears
ROBUSTOUTLOOKFORCOMMERCIALREALESTATE
Strongdemandfrome-commerceandstart-ups
Highyieldsandrentalgrowth aperfectcombinationforinvestment
Heightenedforeigninterestcoupledwithimprovingregulatorylandscape
Robusteconomicgrowth,focusoninfrastructureandeaseofdoingbusiness
Global Cities 2016

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