Gilgel Gibe III hydro-electric dam, Ethiopia: technical, engineering and economic feasibility study report.
Introduces soil engineering concepts in easy-to-understand and language.
Includes climate change and tariff considerations. Fun to read.
Demonstrates that Gibe III is ‘the dam to watch.’
Detailed description of Environmental Impact Assessment - Historical Background - Objectives - Assessment procedure - Necessity in Water resources projects - Environmental discourse on DAM construction - Case study
Detailed description of Environmental Impact Assessment - Historical Background - Objectives - Assessment procedure - Necessity in Water resources projects - Environmental discourse on DAM construction - Case study
supplying wholesome water to consumers with suitable methods in economical way,to exist human life water is very important as air is,so,as a civil engineer's we have to supply safe water to consumers in economical way,in this we are going to explain about component parts of water supply scheme,systems of water distribution and layouts of distribution system according to their suitability.
Rain water harvesting is a technique of collection and storage of rainwater into natural reservoirs or tanks, or the infiltration of surface water into subsurface aquifers (before it is lost as surface runoff). One method of rainwater harvesting is rooftop harvesting
Project report summer health & hygiene awarness programme hyd 18-may2014Jyoti Social Foundation
Relish Summer- A Health & Hygiene Awareness Programme conducted by Hyderabad Team Jyoti Social.
For more details about our Initiatives log on to http://jyotifoundations.org and http://recycleeducate.com
Applications of Artificial Neural Networks in Civil EngineeringPramey Zode
An artificial brain-like network based on certain mathematical algorithms developed using a numerical computing environment is called as an ‘Artificial Neural Network (ANN)’. Many civil engineering problems which need understanding of physical processes are found to be time consuming and inaccurate to evaluate using conventional approaches. In this regard, many ANNs have been seen as a reliable and practical alternative to solve such problems. Literature review reveals that ANNs have already being used in solving numerous civil engineering problems. This study explains some cases where ANNs have been used and its future scope is also discussed.
The river Bharathapuzha is the lifeline of three districts in Central Kerala namely Palakkad, Malappuram and Thrissur and also parts of Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu. This region gets an increase in population during the recent years. Water is unevenly distributed as surface and groundwater resources. An integrated hydrogeological study in the whole basin has not been attempted so far. This is the result of our investigation.
supplying wholesome water to consumers with suitable methods in economical way,to exist human life water is very important as air is,so,as a civil engineer's we have to supply safe water to consumers in economical way,in this we are going to explain about component parts of water supply scheme,systems of water distribution and layouts of distribution system according to their suitability.
Rain water harvesting is a technique of collection and storage of rainwater into natural reservoirs or tanks, or the infiltration of surface water into subsurface aquifers (before it is lost as surface runoff). One method of rainwater harvesting is rooftop harvesting
Project report summer health & hygiene awarness programme hyd 18-may2014Jyoti Social Foundation
Relish Summer- A Health & Hygiene Awareness Programme conducted by Hyderabad Team Jyoti Social.
For more details about our Initiatives log on to http://jyotifoundations.org and http://recycleeducate.com
Applications of Artificial Neural Networks in Civil EngineeringPramey Zode
An artificial brain-like network based on certain mathematical algorithms developed using a numerical computing environment is called as an ‘Artificial Neural Network (ANN)’. Many civil engineering problems which need understanding of physical processes are found to be time consuming and inaccurate to evaluate using conventional approaches. In this regard, many ANNs have been seen as a reliable and practical alternative to solve such problems. Literature review reveals that ANNs have already being used in solving numerous civil engineering problems. This study explains some cases where ANNs have been used and its future scope is also discussed.
The river Bharathapuzha is the lifeline of three districts in Central Kerala namely Palakkad, Malappuram and Thrissur and also parts of Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu. This region gets an increase in population during the recent years. Water is unevenly distributed as surface and groundwater resources. An integrated hydrogeological study in the whole basin has not been attempted so far. This is the result of our investigation.
Kingston Greenline & Ulster County Trails Summit - KPRT Feasibility StudyThe Kingston Land Trust
Lindsay Zefting, planner and engineer at Alta Planning + Design, presented the final report of the Kingston Point Rail Trail Feasibility Study, which reviewed a proposed trail from midtown Kingston to the Rondout Creek.
Feasibility assessment of selected sites for the pilot project on the feasibi...ILRI
Presented by Isabelle Baltenweck at the Pilot project on the feasibility of generating carbon credit through dairy productivity gains Second Project Stakeholder Consultation Workshop, Nairobi, Kenya, 29 January 2013
The Cavite-Laguna (CALA) Expressway will provide a critical linke for the provinces of Cavite and Laguna, connecting two major toll roads, the CAVITEX and the SLEX.
This document provides an overview on real estate development and financial feasibility.
Topics Covered:
Development - Process, Ecosystem, Model, Flowchart, Risk vs Value, Development Risk, Development Cycle, Key Categories of Tasks
Economic Feasibility - Financial, Development Budget, Static Analysis, Loan-to-Cost, Debt Cover & Default Ratio Approaches, Detailed Proforma & Analysis
This is the product proposal paper prepared by the students of Capitol University major in Marketing Management and Human Resource Management taking up Introduction to Entrepreneurship Feasibility Study paper.
Distribution of petroleum product within the oil rich Niger Delta area of Nigeria is a daunting
task because of its deltaic nature. To solve this challenge, fixed fuel dispensing stations will be built in the
coastal environment to receive and make supplies available to fishermen and marine transporters. Building of
such fuel stations require proper foundation design. Soil test results of the region was obtained and a foundation
design was made to ascertain the number of piles pile depth, pile spacing, skin friction, lateral load bearing
capacity and end bearing capacity. API codes where used to check and ensure that the results obtained are
within safety limits. This will ensure that the offshore structure completes it intended and designed life span.
Earthquake Resistance Architecture: A Study for the Architectural Design of B...ijtsrd
In Addressing the role of architects and the architectural aspects of earthquake performance of buildings, this paper has had three objective: First to show that earthquake construction is not merely an engineering activity for structural engineers, it is an activity to be shared by both engineers and architects; Second to demonstrate the role that non computal or architectural aspects plays in determining the earthquake resistance of building, and third to emphasise the need for engineers to understand characteristics of traditional construction and for architects to understand the problem and nature of earthquake effect on building. Prof. Y. P. Singh"Earthquake Resistance Architecture: A Study for the Architectural Design of Buildings in Sesmic Zones" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-1 | Issue-5 , August 2017, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd2229.pdf http://www.ijtsrd.com/engineering/civil-engineering/2229/earthquake-resistance-architecture-a-study-for-the-architectural-design-of-buildings-in-sesmic-zones/prof-y-p-singh
SAP Sapphire 2024 - ASUG301 building better apps with SAP Fiori.pdfPeter Spielvogel
Building better applications for business users with SAP Fiori.
• What is SAP Fiori and why it matters to you
• How a better user experience drives measurable business benefits
• How to get started with SAP Fiori today
• How SAP Fiori elements accelerates application development
• How SAP Build Code includes SAP Fiori tools and other generative artificial intelligence capabilities
• How SAP Fiori paves the way for using AI in SAP apps
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
In this session I delve into the encryption technology used in Microsoft 365 and Microsoft Purview. Including the concepts of Customer Key and Double Key Encryption.
Welocme to ViralQR, your best QR code generator.ViralQR
Welcome to ViralQR, your best QR code generator available on the market!
At ViralQR, we design static and dynamic QR codes. Our mission is to make business operations easier and customer engagement more powerful through the use of QR technology. Be it a small-scale business or a huge enterprise, our easy-to-use platform provides multiple choices that can be tailored according to your company's branding and marketing strategies.
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We are here to make the process of creating QR codes easy and smooth, thus enhancing customer interaction and making business more fluid. We very strongly believe in the ability of QR codes to change the world for businesses in their interaction with customers and are set on making that technology accessible and usable far and wide.
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Ever since its inception, we have successfully served many clients by offering QR codes in their marketing, service delivery, and collection of feedback across various industries. Our platform has been recognized for its ease of use and amazing features, which helped a business to make QR codes.
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At ViralQR, here is a comprehensive suite of services that caters to your very needs:
Static QR Codes: Create free static QR codes. These QR codes are able to store significant information such as URLs, vCards, plain text, emails and SMS, Wi-Fi credentials, and Bitcoin addresses.
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Pricing and Packages
Additionally, there is a 14-day free offer to ViralQR, which is an exceptional opportunity for new users to take a feel of this platform. One can easily subscribe from there and experience the full dynamic of using QR codes. The subscription plans are not only meant for business; they are priced very flexibly so that literally every business could afford to benefit from our service.
Why choose us?
ViralQR will provide services for marketing, advertising, catering, retail, and the like. The QR codes can be posted on fliers, packaging, merchandise, and banners, as well as to substitute for cash and cards in a restaurant or coffee shop. With QR codes integrated into your business, improve customer engagement and streamline operations.
Comprehensive Analytics
Subscribers of ViralQR receive detailed analytics and tracking tools in light of having a view of the core values of QR code performance. Our analytics dashboard shows aggregate views and unique views, as well as detailed information about each impression, including time, device, browser, and estimated location by city and country.
So, thank you for choosing ViralQR; we have an offer of nothing but the best in terms of QR code services to meet business diversity!
Observability Concepts EVERY Developer Should Know -- DeveloperWeek Europe.pdfPaige Cruz
Monitoring and observability aren’t traditionally found in software curriculums and many of us cobble this knowledge together from whatever vendor or ecosystem we were first introduced to and whatever is a part of your current company’s observability stack.
While the dev and ops silo continues to crumble….many organizations still relegate monitoring & observability as the purview of ops, infra and SRE teams. This is a mistake - achieving a highly observable system requires collaboration up and down the stack.
I, a former op, would like to extend an invitation to all application developers to join the observability party will share these foundational concepts to build on:
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...UiPathCommunity
💥 Speed, accuracy, and scaling – discover the superpowers of GenAI in action with UiPath Document Understanding and Communications Mining™:
See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
This is a hands-on session specifically designed for automation developers and AI enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge in leveraging the latest intelligent document processing capabilities offered by UiPath.
Speakers:
👨🏫 Andras Palfi, Senior Product Manager, UiPath
👩🏫 Lenka Dulovicova, Product Program Manager, UiPath
Accelerate your Kubernetes clusters with Varnish CachingThijs Feryn
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
Leading Change strategies and insights for effective change management pdf 1.pdf
Gilgel Gibe III dam Ethiopia: technical, engineering and economic feasibility study report.
1. Gilgel Gibe III Economic, Technical and Engineering Feasibility
Desk Study Report Submitted to the African Development Bank
By Anthony Mitchell, April 15, 2009
http://AnthonyMitchell.com
Background
This report presents the results of an independent study of the feasibility of completing construction
and beginning operations at the Gilgel Gibe III hydro-electric project in Ethiopia’s Omo River basin.
The Gibe III dam is slated to be 240 meters tall and has a projected generation capacity of 1,870
megawatts of electricity.
While the Nurek Dam in Tajikistan stands 60 meters taller than the planned height of Gibe III, in
conducting research for this report, no previous example of any dam of Gibe III’s rockfill design with
a concrete external liner was found to have been constructed anywhere in the world to the height
proposed for Gibe III. A list of other big dam projects is included herein.
This report identifies economic, technical and engineering issues at Gibe III. The report finds six
areas in need of additional attention to fully assess the feasibility of Gibe III. In describing those six
areas, the report suggests priorities for further research and review.
The report draws on the findings of an earlier review conducted by the same author in support of a
workplan created in 2008 for the World Bank as part of a proposal to assess the feasibility of the
Bank providing financial assistance to the Gibe III project. Citing a lack of transparency and the
absence of a competitive bidding process in the selection of a prime contractor, the World Bank opted
not to proceed with a full review of the funding application for Gibe III. A full-scale economic and
technical feasibility study was therefore not conducted.
The World Bank’s feasibility study would have provided opportunities for site access and record
reviews that are beyond the scope of a desk study. It is not known whether any qualified independent
review teams have been given adequate access to the Gibe III project site and project records to date.
Construction of the dam has begun with Ethiopian sponsorship and is slated for completion in
2011-2012. Construction is supported in part by the issuance of hard-currency, domestically tax-
exempt Millennium bonds marketed to the Ethiopian diaspora at a reported maximum 5% rate of
interest. The bonds carry the risks of a premature call and uncertain currency repatriation rights.
There is no secondary market for Ethiopian bonds. Ethiopia’s currency does not trade freely on
global markets.
The Millennium bonds have not been found to be marketed with provisions for independent audits of
the bond issue or of subsequent fund distributions or bond repayments. To those uncertainties can be
added issues regarding currency repatriation (whether repayments will ultimately be made in
Ethiopian currency and at artificial exchange rates), taxation, and the interest to be paid in the event
of premature repayment (a “call”).
This desk study does not include conclusions or recommendations on whether to provide
financial support for Gibe III. It does identify economic, technical and engineering issues
regarding the feasibility of the Gibe III project—but not environmental issues because the scope of
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 1
2. the World Bank’s proposed economic and technical assessment did not encompass environmental
impacts. The results of this study can be used to structure additional research and create
decision tools for financial institutions, policy makers and bond analysts.
A summary of findings is presented first, with six categories of issues. Detailed findings are then
presented for each category.
Summary of Findings
Permeability: The structural integrity of dams depends in part on the ability of the
dam structure to minimize permeability through the structure itself.
Some seepage is inevitable, but permeability risks are compounded by
the dam’s design and dimensions. Primary permeability is
distinguished from more critical issues of secondary permeability, i.e.,
permeability through joints and cracks in the concrete liner installed on
the rockfill dam structure. Secondary permeability rates will govern at
Gibe III.
The dam will create an artificial lake 150 kilometers long. The lake
will retain 11 billion cubic meters of water. That amount of water will
exert considerable hydrostatic pressure on the dam structure. If water
builds up inside the base of the dam, it will make the facility more
unstable and vulnerable to deformation and structural failure during
seismic events.
Structural stability: Structural stability is initially achieved on the basis of the peak
strength of the materials used to construct the dam. After the dam and
its foundations have settled and experienced one or more seismic
events, materials in the dam may shift beyond the capability of peak
strength to hold them in place. Once this occurs, the dam begins to rely
on residual strength for its structural stability.
Volcanic ash has been a problem at other civil engineering projects in
the region. If ash or other low-load-bearing soils are present in the dam
or its foundations, then the risk of catastrophic failure will be
heightened. The Gibe III contractor’s prior performance at Gibe II
provides cause for concern, thanks to the failure of the original design
and construction plan to identify and address the presence of weak
soils. The risk of catastrophic failure of the dam at Gibe III is not
insignificant.
Shear strength: Pre-construction measurement and testing of the shear strength of
materials to be installed in a dam assists in calculating when and how
structural failure or deformation could occur. In assessing Gibe III’s
engineering designs, it is important to examine how shear strength was
measured. Two principal measurement techniques are contrasted here.
Shear-block tests are equated with peak strength. Ring-shear tests can
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 2
3. measure both peak strength and residual strength. No evidence was
found that appropriate strength testing has been conducted at Gibe III.
Monitoring and planning: Dam construction involves more than simply moving rocks around. It
involves ongoing and diligent construction oversight, materials testing
and laboratory analysis. Is independent construction oversight
occurring at Gibe III?
• Monitoring devices need to be installed during construction.
• Monitoring and contingency plans need to be developed to
detect and respond to seepage, shifting, pressure buildup,
deformation, movement of the dam and other scenarios during
facility operation.
• Potential facility failure modes need to be identified and
surveillance and monitoring systems put into place for each of
them.
• Mitigation and emergency response capabilities need to be
institutionalized and readied for quick deployment.
Economic feasibility: The economic feasibility of a hydro-electric facility is determined in
part by power sale arrangements and the performance of electrical
generators. Gibe III’s rate structures and performance projections are
called into question. Given existing indicators regarding tariff
structures in Ethiopia, the electrical power generated at Gibe III could
prove to be unaffordable for many of the residential customers for
whom the dam is ostensibly being constructed.
Economic externalities: The costs and impacts of building and operating a dam often extend
beyond the dam site itself. Negative economic externalities can be
created where changes in physical resources occur. At Gibe III,
physical changes will extend upstream and downstream. So too will
economic impacts, which include disruptions in food production and
drinking water access. Despite their significance, these impacts do not
appear to have been quantified or adequately considered in assessing
the economic and technical feasibility of Gibe III.
Detailed Findings
Permeability
In examining the permeability of the dam structure, two types of permeability need to be
distinguished. Primary permeability is the rate at which liquids pass through consolidated soil or
other materials. Secondary permeability is the rate at which liquids pass through the voids (and
highly permeable material) that may exist between more impermeable, consolidated substances.
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 3
4. In calculating permeability rates, secondary permeability governs the speed at which liquids travel
through materials (where secondary permeability exists) such as highly fractured masses of rock.
Published descriptions of Gibe III characterize the dam as a rockfill structure with a concrete exterior
liner. Concrete is intended to provide an impermeable barrier, which the dam’s rockfill mass itself
cannot do because the voids between the rocks are highly permeable.
If properly constructed and maintained, concrete’s low primary permeability can allow it to serve as
an effective water barrier for long periods of time, especially in small structures protected from
extreme temperature differentials. Concrete’s primary impermeability is limited by the size of each
contiguous concrete mass or slab.
Filler material placed in the joints between slabs is designed to allow concrete to expand and contract
without cracking. However, seam fillers are vulnerable to damage and deterioration.
Cracks and other failures within concrete slabs can create voids that allow for high rates of secondary
permeability to negate concrete’s low primary permeability. In a structure as tall as Gibe III there is a
risk that the concrete liner will be damaged by differential settling and other structural shifts within
the dam and its foundations. These shifts could be aggravated by risks from:
1. Soils containing volcanic ash present under or adjacent to the dam. A bridge in the region
reportedly failed because it had been built over volcanic ash that was not strong enough to
support the loads placed upon it.
2. Impurities in the water used to make concrete.
3. Differential compaction and uneven settling of the dam structure.
4. Uneven cooling and contraction of the concrete during construction.
5. Heat expanding the concrete and causing it to crack following construction.
6. Seismic activity, for which southwestern Ethiopia is known. See: http://www.ethiopians.com/
earthquake_engineering_resources.htm. The weight of the 11 billion cubic meters of water
retained by the dam could trigger seismic events.
7. Excessive moisture inside the base of the dam is liable to make the facility more unstable and
vulnerable to liquefaction, deformation and structural failure during seismic events.
Detailed engineering reviews of the site’s geology and the dam’s design and construction should
assess the risks to the concrete liner failing and reducing the structural integrity to the rockfill
structure. A dam failure will not necessarily result in the complete release of all impounded water.
Risks of failure at Gibe III need to be considered in the context of the dam’s slope and scale. At 240
meters in height, Gibe III will exceed the height of these existing dams:
• The Three Gorges Dam in China, at 101 meters in height
• Cahora Bassa Dam, Zambezi River, Mozambique, 171 meters
• Hoover Dam in the United States, 221 meters
• Guri Dam or Central Hidroeléctrica Simón Bolívar in Venezuela, 162 meters
• Itaipu Dam on the border between Brazil and Paraguay, 196 meters
• Grand Coulee Dam in the United States, 168 meters
Structural stability
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 4
5. The stability of the dam depends on the strength of materials at their weakest points, which is often
found where materials join together, such as rocks-to-rocks or concrete on top of rocks. Calculations
of sheer strength would or should have served as a basis for determining the dam’s dimensions. An
outside engineering review needs to examine how those calculations were made and how the sheer
strength of the dam was modeled under static loading and different (and repeated) seismic events.
Two types of sheer strength can be distinguished:
• Peak strength
• Residual strength
When you dislodge a rock and begin to move it, peak strength is the energy needed to start the rock
moving. Once the rock has begun to move, residual strength may be all that is needed to keep the
rock moving.
As the dam weighs down soils within and beneath the structure or is jolted by seismic events, peak
strength could be exceeded in portions of the facility. This will leave the structure’s integrity reliant
on residual strength.
Given the nature of the local soils, voids present within the rockfill structure, repeated seismic
activity in the area and pressures exerted by the mass of water that will build up behind the dam, an
engineering study needs to assess the consequences of peak strength being exceeded during the dam’s
lifecycle and then how the dam structure could react under different scenarios.
The Gibe III prime contractor’s level of previous experience with dam projects the size of Gibe III,
and the contractor’s inclination to perform pre-construction engineering studies (as evidenced by the
interruption of work at Gibe II due to a failure to adequately perform pre-construction geological
testing) underscores the importance of examining whether and how residual strength was measured
and factored into the Gibe III design.
Measurement of shear strength
The strength of two materials where they come together can be measured using sheer block tests and
ring sheer tests.
Sheer blocks: A sheer block test places a sample on a block and pushes it laterally over another
sample. While sheer blocks can be used to measure peak strength, the fact that fresh,
untouched base material is constantly being encountered on the lower portion of the
test unit’s slip surface makes sheer block tests unsuitable for assessing the residual
strength of slip surfaces because they consistently over-state calculations of residual
strength.
Ring sheer: A ring sheer test has the upper test substance rotated over the base substance in a
circular, ring-like motion that enables both test surfaces to achieve full contact before
residual strength is determined. Ring sheer tests can provide accurate data on both
peak strength (at the beginning of a test sequence) and residual strength—once peak
strength has been exceeded.
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 5
6. An independent engineering assessment should examine how sheer strength was measured at Gibe III
and seek to assess the extent to which the design will remain stable once peak strength has been
exceeded.
Monitoring and planning
Monitoring and contingency planning is important in all phases of a dam’s lifecycle. It is critical
during construction.
The adequacy of oversight of the construction process needs to be evaluated as part of an independent
engineering and technical study. The oversight capabilities and practices of the Ethiopian Electric
Power Corporation (EEPCo) and government regulatory agencies in Ethiopia to oversee the design
and construction of the Gibe dams should be evaluated. Technical expertise (supported by adequate
oversight procedures, training, laboratory analysis capabilities and resources for onsite monitoring)
are needed to ensure that proper engineering practices were followed by Salini Costruttori, the prime
contractor at Gibe III and the previous two Gibe hydroelectric projects.
Sound engineering and construction practices can be employed to reduce structural risks at big dam
projects but not eliminate them. Hence the need for monitoring and contingency planning.
Monitoring plans at Gibe III need to be reviewed for adequacy in detecting and responding to
seepage, movement of the dam structure, excessive pressure on the dam structure and other
indications of failure. Proper placement of instrumentation needs to be planned prior to facility
construction and subject to independent outside review. During construction, the following should be
installed:
• Observation wells and piezometers
• Plumb lines
• Load cells
• Strain gauges
A list of potential problems with the facility needs to be developed and contingency plans readied,
tested and institutionalized for each potential problem. Potential failure modes need to be identified,
with monitoring and response plans organized for each failure scenario identified. Mitigation and
emergency response capabilities need to be built up, monitored and kept ready for launch.
Contingency planning needs to be extended to potentially impacted areas downstream, paid for by the
dam operator.
Periodic reviews need to be initiated of actions taken to reduce the likelihood and consequences of
dam failure. Reviews should include:
• Facility designs
• Design and placement of monitoring systems
• Data collection and analysis procedures
• Dam operation procedures
• Risk-reduction measures
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 6
7. • Structural remediation capabilities
• Contingency plans and capabilities
• Downstream impact reduction
• Communication capabilities and procedures
Economic feasibility
The economic feasibility of the Gibe III project is an open question that would need to take into
account the rate structures for selling power generated from the facility and the service agreement
with the dam operator.
Global climate change and diminished water supplies are reducing power generated at hydro-electric
facilities elsewhere in the world and appear likely to do so at Gibe III.
Liability exposure and allocation in the event of unanticipated outcomes at the Gibe projects needs to
be clarified and examined. Unanticipated events could interfere with loan repayments and the supply
of electricity to residential consumers in the franchise areas served by the Gibe hydro-electric
projects.
Tariff structures for selling electricity from the Gibe projects and the service agreements with the
electrical utility and the contractors engaged in the Gibe projects need to be examined to assess
whether and how investors and bond holders can be repaid under a variety of performance scenarios.
Rate structures and service agreements need to be examined to determine whether they are equitable,
reasonable, and conform to general principles of fairness, soundness and best utility-rate-practices.
The viability, independence and fairness of systems for resolving tariff disputes should also be
examined.
National and local governments (and many international organizations) lack the expertise and
resources to conduct rate studies and to adequately and fairly respond to subsequent rate disputes and
rate appeals. These institutional and systemic shortcomings have led to unexpected economic burdens
from utility projects in many areas of the world, including Western countries where such expertise is
more readily available.
Tariff systems commonly operate outside of normal government channels for taxation and
appropriation. Their frequent lack of transparency and their ability to generate significant recurrent
revenues makes utility franchises an attractive vehicle for private enrichment at public expense. The
larger the infrastructure project, the greater the opportunities for kick-backs and diversion of funds
away from purposes that are used and useful to rate payers. Even where instances of outright fraud
and corruption are low, poor decisions in utility infrastructure planning and financing can exercise
profound, long term negative economic effects.
EEPCo’s existing tariff and electrical distribution policies are reputed to favor large industrial and
commercial users over residential consumers. Cross subsidization of industrial and commercial users
by residential customers, who pay disproportionally higher rates for the same amount of electricity,
can unreasonably benefit industrial and commercial users, while under serving residential consumers
whose lack of access to electricity originally served to justify public investments in the Gibe dam
projects.
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 7
8. The affordability and equitability of electrical tariffs can be reduced in the event that generation
capacity falters due to unplanned events such as water shortages and maintenance problems. It is not
known whether or how power sale agreements may favor specific customers or classes of customers
in the event of generation shortfalls or cost increases involving the Gibe projects. While wholesale
customers may be provided with guaranteed supplies of power at relatively low cost, it is possible
that EEPCo’s rate structures could allocate responsibility for cost increases and generation shortfalls
to categories of rate payers least able to afford it.
Contract terms, oversight arrangements and tariff-dispute-resolution systems may neither allow nor
encourage adequate control of costs once Gibe III becomes operational. Contract terms and oversight
arrangements may allow costs to be passed on for expenses that are not used or useful to some classes
of rate payers, thereby violating central principles of equity and fairness in utility rate systems.
Electrical power from Gibe III could be unaffordable to substantial numbers of residential
customers for whom the dam project is ostensibly being built. Residential customers appear likely
to subsidize the electricity used by commercial and industrial customers.
Considerable attention needs to be devoted to assessing the financial aspects of the Gibe III project
and the institutional factors surrounding tariff-system administration. When neglected, the financial
terms and conditions of electrical projects can exercise long-term negative effects on some economic
sectors, interfere with debt servicing and divert resources away from productive purposes. The
allocation of liabilities at Gibe III deserves attention in light of the nature and extent of the risks
inherent in the Gibe III project and the manner in which risks have been monitored and controlled to
date.
The need for a new approach to risk management at EEPCo is underscored by the fact that research
activities to support the preparation of this report were repeatedly hindered by EEPCo’s website.
EEPCo’s main website www.eepco.gov.et was found to be propagating ‘Silent love China’ computer
attacks that attempt to install Trojan software on visitors’ computers and steal passwords. It is
recommended that www.eepco.gov.et not be visited until corrective actions have been taken.
Security breaches within EEPCo’s computer systems need to be investigated and corrected
immediately, with enhanced security monitoring and response capabilities instituted and maintained.
Independent outside auditing of EEPCo’s computer security practices should also be instituted and
maintained.
From the outside, it is now known whether EEPCo has been breached by deliberate acts of espionage
by government agencies within the Peoples’ Republic of China or by Chinese criminal groups. The
nature of the breach at EEPCo, which purposely avoids infecting PRC government websites, suggests
the former.
Given their commercial interests at stake in Ethiopia, one would have expected that the Italian
government and Salini would have defended their interests and sought to prevent Chinese
interference at EEPCo, regardless of whether security breaches stemmed from PRC government
agencies or private parties. Actual responsibility for defending EEPCo’s interests rests with EEPCo
itself, notwithstanding EEPCo’s inability or unwillingness to do so.
Economic externalities
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 8
9. In addition to the aforementioned economic considerations regarding Gibe III, the following negative
externalities appear as costs to populations who will bear disproportionately negative economic and
quality-of-life impacts as a result of Gibe III.
Economic losses are likely to be experienced from increases in disease caused by the dam’s impacts
on the physical environment. Specifically:
• Increases in schistosomiasis (also known as bilharzia or snail fever) are expected upstream of
the dam. According to the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:
Children who are repeatedly infected can develop anemia, malnutrition, and learning
difficulties. After years of infection, the parasite can also damage the liver, intestines,
lungs, and bladder. Rarely, eggs are found in the brain or spinal cord and can cause
seizures, paralysis, or spinal cord inflammation.
Symptoms of schistosomiasis are caused by the body's reaction to the eggs produced by
worms, not by the worms themselves.
• Malaria rates are likely increase around the artificial lake, especially among children, as
indicated by a study of malaria rates at Gibe I completed in 2008. Gibe III’s impact on
malaria rates downstream should also be examined.
Downstream economic losses do not appear to have been adequately examined in the host nation’s
planning activities and reviews of the dam conducted to date. In order to meet electricity sales
targets, water withholdings in excess of publicly announced levels may occur.
Impacts from evapotranspiration, evaporation and ground water recharge from the artificial lake
created by Gibe III have not been found to be adequately recognized in the official plans for Gibe III.
These water losses will expand the need for additional water withholdings from the Omo River and
will inevitably lead to decreases in water released downstream.
Loss of water in the Omo River basin will translate into reduced flows into Lake Turkana, shrinking
the size of the lake and altering the lake’s chemistry. Lake Turkana is a high desert lake largely
located in Kenya. The lake is the destination of the Omo River. The lake is a source of potable water
and food (from fishing). It reportedly provides support for 300,000 people, many of whom have no
viable economic alternatives.
Lake Turkana is already stressed. The lake has been receding and becoming more alkaline, which
threatens to make its water undrinkable. Resources for securing alternate potable water supplies have
not been identified. Gibe III would contribute additional stress and lower economic outputs from the
lake and the Omo River basin.
“Stopping the periodic inundations that replenish floodplains in the R Omo and its delta region will
have a direct effect on several commercial [fish] species that depend on those areas as nurseries,” said
Dr. Peter B. Bayley, Department of Fisheries & Wildlife, Oregon State University, who has
conducted research on fisheries in the Omo River basin.
Eliminating periodic inundations in the Omo River basin will disrupt food supplies for downstream
communities that have developed sophisticated agricultural practices that depend on existing water
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 9
10. supplies and flow cycles. Disruptions in food supplies do not appear to have been fully taken into
account in planning for the dam, nor have adequate mitigation measures reportedly begun to be
implemented downstream. Changes in water supplies will accelerate resource competitions among
tribes downstream and could lead to armed conflicts.
Adversely impacted individuals and localities do not appear to have been granted adequate legal
standing and enabling resources that would allow them to participate at key junctures of the dam’s
permitting, licensing and funding processes. Nor does the existing permitting and licensing process
appear to have been conducted independently from the process of pro-actively arranging for the Gibe
III project to be implemented.
A lack of independent outside participation in planning, regulatory and technical matters has deprived
all three Gibe hydro-electric projects of valuable inputs that would have reduced risks for project
sponsors, investors and electrical rate payers.
As demonstrated by the failure of Gibe II to be implemented as planned, the lack of independent
oversight and meaningful stakeholder participation has contributed to cost over runs, project delays
and wasted allocations of public resources. In the case of Gibe III, the stakes are higher, notably in
regard to engineering and financial risks and impacts on populations whose survival depends on
maintaining access to existing natural resources.
END
Gibe III Independent Feasibility Report 10