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Megatrends
Ahead of the future
2022
01.	Technology: human connections in an
	 increasingly virtual world
02.	 Advanced artificial intelligence
	 and its consequences for humans
03.	 Metaverse, blockchain and cybersecurity
04.	Mobility: where will the automation of public
	 and private transport take us?
05.	Science: towards the human microbiome,
	 a door to cure disease
06.	Work: the potential of technology
07.	Education: a new educational paradigm
	 in a changing world
08.	Sustainability, ecologic transition and
	 business transformation
09.	 Aging in the near future:
	 life expectancy versus quality of life
10.	 The ethics of social media
	 and their power to influence and divide communities
Table of
contents
Introduction
Trends
Leader
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Introduction
4
4
Megatrends
Answering this question is the main mission of the
Future Trends Forum, the international think tank
where the most prominent voices of the Bankinter
Innovation Foundation analyze the details of the
present in order to accurately sketch the future.
Detecting the innovation trends that will change our
technology, business models and society is no easy
task. For this reason, the aim of this report is to lay
out the current scene, in the context of 2022, in areas
such as artificial intelligence, new work models and
sustainability challenges, and to point out what
will be the keys to their development in the medium
term. In other words, to put the spotlight on the pre-
sent; since that is where we find the answers to the
main questions about the future and the clues as to
the desired direction of our actions and strategies.
Introduction
The American computer scientist Alan Kay, a pioneer in programming
languages, used to say that "the best way to predict the future is to invent
it". That is why we are asking probing questions to the experts of the
Bankinter Innovation Founda-tion: what innovative trends will impact our
society in the medium term, in the next two, four or six years?
More than 700 internationally renowned profes-
sionals who collaborate with Bankinter Innovation
Foundation have triaged and picked these ten trends.
Once a year, our Future Trends Forum experts propo-
se different topics and vote on those that will have
the greatest impact. This is our way of sharing all our
knowledge with society and anticipating the trends
that will transform society through innovation.
There are four categories: Technology and Scien-
ce, Emerging Trends, Economic Progress and the
Future of Society. Once obtained and analyzed, they
are submitted to a vote that results in a final ranking.
Our experts will explore the topics in this global list
one by one over the course of 2022.
And as a foretaste of the global analysis, we conclude
in a single headline the link that unites all the sub-
jects analyzed: "The future has arrived, and the only
constant is change".
TECHNOLOGY
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
BLOCKCHAIN,
CYBERSECURITY,
PRIVACY
MOBILITY
SCIENCE
WORK
EDUCATION
SUSTAINABILITY
LONGEVITY
OTHERS
Human connection
in virtual and
digital world
51.2%
Advanced AI and its
social human consequences
67.9%
Metaverse
and Blockchain
58.3%
Updating look into private
and public transport
automation: where is it all going?
64.3%
Environmental sustainability,
green transition and
business transformation
83.3%
The very near future
of aging: not just
lifespan, health span
84.6%
Ethics of social media
in influencing and
dividing communities
46.4%
Changes in
employment models
over lifetime
57.7%
A new education
paradigm for a world
of explosive change
55.6%
Shaping the human
microbiome,
taming all disease
60.5%
50%
50%
100%
0%
Trends
6
6
Megatrends
6
If there were a graph that traced personal in-
teractions through technological devices over the
years, it would very likely show a huge peak in March
2020. Driven by the global pandemic, we began to
see social interactions of all kinds being transferred
to the virtual world. From chatting with friends after
work to water-cooler conversations with colleagues.
Everything was now happening on a screen. We bid
farewell to face-to-face. "When will normality return?"
we asked ourselves.
Now, almost two years later, we have finally
understood that many changes have come to stay
and that the future we had heard so much about was
already among us.
We need to see more of each other
Yes, seeing each other then made more sense than
ever. Video calls replaced voice calls with family
and friends to bridge the gap left by distance and
isolation. "Cameras on, please," was one of the most
frequently heard requests at work meetings via
Zoom. We realized how many nuances were lost in
a long-distance conversation in which non-verbal
communication played no role.
But how do we adapt our needs as human beings to
the virtual world in which we operate daily?
Redefining work
When was the last time you closed a business deal
with a handshake? Gestures like that, as well as
networking events, seem like routines of the past.
Now, working life is being built on new foundations—
technological foundations.
We now enjoy greater globality, flexibility, mobility
and accessibility. For some professions, technology
and a change of mindset have granted access to labor
markets previously limited due to geography. At the
same time, organizations are placing professionals
now more than ever at the center, seeking to generate
satisfaction, retain talent and foster group dynamics
that maintain team cohesion. Technology yes, but as
humane as possible.
Technology that brings people closer together
Having a thousand friends on Facebook doesn't mean
that those friendships are real. Maybe only ten or
twenty of those contacts are really an important part
of your life. And the rest? Acquaintances or people you
once crossed paths with and are happy to hear from.
Without social media, you'd probably never hear from
most of them again.
And that's what technology does to human re-
relationships. As we discuss in the 'Technology
Technology
Human connections in an
increasingly virtual world
01
7
7
Megatrends
7
and Inequality' report, these tools spearhead a
hyper-connected world, where we can enrich our
relationships, bring out the best in ourselves and fight
inequality with powerful tools. How will they develop,
what will be the next frontier of digitalization? We will
analyze it over the course of 2022.
Technology
TECHNOLOGY
Human connection in
virtual and digital world
With the emergence of Metaverse,
Human connection
in virtual and
digital world
51.2%
VR, AR, and Technology related to
blending real and digital worlds
46.2%
Collaborative robotics, man-robot
interaction, and share
38.8%
Are You Ready for the Quantum
Computing Revolution?
35%
Impact technologies in SMEs
16.2%
Soft technology and business model innovation
16.2%
Remote social connection technologies
15%
Web3 -
implications
in the real world
27.5%
Technology Revolution:
Dystopia or Utopia Ahead
26.2%
Becoming Superhuman: How Technology
& Science Will Enable Us to be Our Best
35%
50%
50%
50%
100%
0%
1. Tecnología: Human connection in virtual and digital world
80 out of 96 answered
8
8
Megatrends
8
Joshua Barbeau, a freelance writer from Canada, was
surfing the web one night in December 2020 when he
stumbled upon GPT-3, a complex AI chat development
software co-founded, among others, by Elon Musk.
Barbeau, who had not gotten over the death of
his fiancée, discovered that he could recreate her
personality and talk to her again thanks to these
algorithms, capable of adapting in a very complex
way to human language. The conversation they had
was so disturbing and real that its creators decided
to close the website, called Project December, amidst
great controversy.
What happened to Barbeau is just another example of
how delicate and complex it is to set limits to artificial
intelligence. It is also a sign of how shocking it is to face
a fully computerized world, a challenge that we will also
analyze with expert voices in the coming months.
AI, regulation and ethics
In a context in which technology is advancing by leaps
and bounds and regulation is following at an awfully
slow pace, society must focus on ed-ucation.
Understanding the advantages of applying artifi-
cial intelligence in our daily lives, understanding its
drawbacks and discovering our initial prejudices is a
complicated but necessary exercise in order to move
forward. Furthermore, once we have overcome the
technological barriers, we must assess how to use
them in a way to effect positive impact on society.
The word "ethics" has probably tagged along the
concept of artificial intelligence the most in recent
years. Public Administrations strive to regulate this
technology and ensure that it protects freedoms,
rights and equality among citizens. One of the latest
to take the initiative has been the UNESCO, which
has issued a series of ethical recommendations that
serve as a guide for applying AI in a way that protects
people, respects their privacy, rights and freedoms,
and promotes non-discrimination.
Are robots taking our jobs?
The application of artificial intelligence in the workplace
will have as great an impact as the mechanization of
agricultural work in the 20th century, which led to
large-scale migrations from the countryside to the city
and the creation of more urban societies.
Part of the task of educating about these tech-
nologies involves dispelling myths such as the fact
that thousands of people will become unemployed and
be replaced by robots or machines. At the Bankinter
Innovation Foundation we analyzed this in detail
last year: it is not a question of machines replacing
humans, but of machines complementing them. This
means that many professionals will be able to devote
more hours of their time to less mechanical tasks.
Advanced artificial
intelligence
And its consequences for humans
02
9
9
Megatrends
9
Why employ human assets in repetitive tasks that can
be automated? Why not dedicate human resources
to tasks associated with creativity, thinking or logic?
This would undoubtedly be the next logical step in the
optimization of human resources in organizations.
In Spain, the OECD estimates that 22% of jobs could
be automated in the next few years. On the other side
of this story, it is estimated that 133 million new jobs
will emerge worldwide by 2022.
Which new professions will emerge? Which will
be reinvented along the way? Warehouse per-
sonnel, customer service managers, administra-
tion positions... these are just a few examples of
professions that will be completely reinvented by the
impact of artificial intelligence and au-tomation.
The name of the challenge going forward is learning.
Advanced artificial intelligence
29.5%
50%
50%
50%
100%
0%
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Advanced AI and its
social human
consequences
2. IA: Advanced AI and its social human consequences
Advanced AI and its
social human consequences
67.9%
Future of AI
and surveillance
Evolution of AI and organoids
and their putative coupling
Agrotech IA
AI, Bias, and real-world harms -
After Facebook Papers... what then?
33.3%
55.1%
12.8%
78 out of 96 answered
10
10
Megatrends
10
Ever since Mark Zuckerberg announced in October
2021 his firm commitment to metaverse, the word
has crept into every conversation. What is it really,
who is driving it, what will it mean in our daily lives?
We do not know for sure what it is or what it will
mean, but what we do know for sure is that we want
to be there.
At the Bankinter Foundation we are already reflecting
on what the metaverse is, a very global concept from
which we can affirm that we will never disconnect and
which opens up an infinite world of possibilities.
Experts such as Amir Baradan gave us answers on how
adding virtual layers will affect the physical world and
in 2022 we will continue to analyze the evolution of a
technology that will play a major role in our future.
It is not a game, it is the evolution
of the Internet
Yes, there have been forerunners—Second Life—of
what Silicon Valley gurus call today the metaverse.
But, like many other inventions and projects, aligning
the idea with the right timing is crucial for it to be
a real game changer. This is what seems to be the
difference between the impact of the forerunners vs.
metaverse now on our lives and on how we interact
with each other as a society.
The technology and the use we make of them are now
prime and ripe to face a change of such magnitude.
Because no, we are not talking about a video game
or a virtual world for a few gamers and fans. We are
talking about the natural next step of the Internet.
And in this process, cybersecurity will play a key role,
especially after a 2021 with several episodes of major,
global cyber-attacks.
There are many questions still to be answered in
this area: how to prevent identity theft? What laws
will govern metaverses? And which bodies will be
responsible for their application and control? What are
minors being exposed to? Where will the enormous
amounts of data generated by users be stored and for
what purposes will this data be used?
Weaving safety nets strong enough to articulate
systems that protect users is not an easy task, but it
is a necessary one.
Blockchain
Buying virtual land for millions of dollars was
unthinkable just a few years ago. But today, in 2022,
the new real estate boom is taking place in the
metaverse thanks to blockchain technology. In the
month of December 2021 alone, this land-buying craze
Metaverse,
blockchain and
cybersecurity
03
11
11
Megatrends
11
has attracted more than $100 million in investments.
We have witnessed news one would think belonged
to the realm of science fiction, such as the purchase
of all the digital land of The Alhambra in Granada by
a single buyer.
In the report 'The Future of Money' we analyze,
precisely, blockchain, which will be the basis of the
metaverse economy. It is time to familiarize yourself
with it, which will be used for all kinds of transactions
and represent a promising market that experts look at
with equal parts of wariness and enthusiasm.
Forget shopping as we know it. How will this affect the
various business sectors? Will it change the way we
work and our personal lives? How will the development
of paradigms such as quantum computing affect us?
In just a few years, the answers to these questions will
become clearer.
Metaverse, blockchain and cybersecurity
BLOCKCHAIN,
3. Blockchain y ciberseguridad: Metaverse and Blockchain
10%
50%
0%
Metaverse and Blockchain
58.3%
Cyber Security and Resilience
56.9%
Blockchains and distributed
ledgers Technologies
40.3%
0%
72 out of 96 answered
BLOCKCHAIN,
CYBERSECURITY, PRIVACY
Metaverse and
Blockchain
The metaverse will be pushed by
Facebook and other technology
3. Blockchain y ciberseguridad: Metaverse and Blockchain
10%
50%
0%
Metaverse and Blockchain
58.3%
Cyber Security and Resilience
56.9%
Blockchains and distributed
ledgers Technologies
40.3%
0%
72 out of 96 answered
12
12
Megatrends
12
It was 1985 when movies depicted a futuristic
panorama of hoverboards and flying cars in the
famous Back to the Future trilogy. But a few decades
later, Marty McFly would have been disappointed to
see that, even in 2022, cars, motorcycles and buses
are still wheeling off.
Although our cities are not as imagined in the story
of that rebellious teenager and Emmet Brown, a.k.a.
Doc, the next few years are shap-ing up to be a really
promising period.
Autonomous cars, at last?
Fortunately, the technologies needed to make such
vehicles work in a practical and functional way are
evolving rapidly, and there are signs that autonomous
driving is (now) much closer to becoming widespread.
Smart cities, which we discussed in one of our
mobility reports, will be the stage for these
developments. Munich, for example, will start to
enjoy a fleet of autonomous cabs this year.
In September 2022, France will enact a new law
regarding these vehicles, authorizing their traffic
on public roads. In this case, they are especially
designed for university campuses, shopping malls
or communities.
Also in Europe, Madrid will be the stage of a trilogy of
automated vehicles: cars, delivery robots and drones.
The latter will be particularly interesting for dodging
the capital's traffic and delivering basic necessities to
places such as hospitals. There are also plans to use
them for home deliveries and replace riders.
Despite this, the sector is fighting against some
failures that have forced giants like Tesla to take a few
steps back (and a lot of explanations).
Controversies, accidents and complaints from the
most suspicious users of this technology aside, Tesla
remains firm in its intention to be the first to offer
a market of 100% autonomous vehicles. And it will
undoubtedly have a lot to say in this market in the
medium term.
Public transport, at the forefront
It is in the city bus sector that we find the greatest
advances in this field. Hong Kong, Singapore, Las
Vegas, Michigan, Lyon, Freiburg, etc. have already had
fully automated public transport vehicles for at least
three years.
Another key factor will be the way millennials and
Generation Z understand transportation. For the
most part, they do not care about driving or owning a
vehicle in the way previous generations did. Moreover,
sustainability is a determining factor in defining the
world they want to live in, and shared transport or
micro-mobility are already part of their way of under-
standing life and caring for the planet. Therefore,
Mobility
Where will the automation of public
and private transportation take us?
04
13
13
Megatrends
13
autonomous and sustainable public transport will be
much more attractive to these users.
Almost 90% of road accidents caused by human error.
The automated vehicle sector clearly has a long and
promising road ahead. The technology is almost
ready. It remains for the laws to be ready as well.
Mobility
MOBILITY
Updating look into
private and public
transport automation:
4. Movilidad: Updating look into private and public transport automation: where is it all going?
Updating look into private
and public transport
automation: where is it all going?
64.3%
Electric vehicles: anticipating
and addressing challenges of
scaling to mainstream adoption
60%
Personal and cargo air
mobility also Witz drones
15.7%
70 out of 96 answered
100%
50%
0%
MOBILITY
Updating look into
private and public
transport automation:
where is it all going?
4. Movilidad: Updating look into private and public transport automation: where is it all going?
Updating look into private
and public transport
automation: where is it all going?
64.3%
Electric vehicles: anticipating
and addressing challenges of
scaling to mainstream adoption
60%
Personal and cargo air
mobility also Witz drones
15.7%
70 out of 96 answered
100%
50%
0%
14
14
Megatrends
14
Aaron Ciechanover, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry,
said that the day will come when all diseases have a
cure. Even the creator of Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg,
envisioned a world without diseases in the year
2100, after donating billions of dollars to medical and
scientific research. Is this realistic?
To understand and help cure diseases as diverse as
Alzheimer's, depression, diabetes or some types of
cancer, the scientific community has agreed to focus
on the intestinal microbiome.
Our microbiome evolves and alters according to what
we do and our routines. And also what we eat, a
factor that we have already analyzed at the Bankinter
Innovation Foundation as a real brake on aging.
A second genome
The genetics inherited from our parents is perceived
as a kind of sentence against which we cannot fight.
But the scientific community agrees that all this
microbial information that we harbor in our body
and that depends on external factors, and not on
our DNA, functions as a "second genome" and carries
much more weight than our genetics when it comes
to developing all kinds of diseases.
The statement by Californian university professor
and science communicator Michael Pollan, who
describes it as follows, helps us to understand such
complex concepts: "I began to think of myself as a
superorganism, in the first-person plural.
Curing cancer, chimerical?
Faced with a disease as aggressive, complex and
diverse as cancer, scientific breakthroughs aimed
at curing it completely can seem like a David versus
Goliath struggle.
Research that sheds light on the importance of the
microbiome has meant, already in 2021, incredibly
good news for the third most com-mon type of cancer
in Spain and the second most common cause of death:
colon cancer.
Scientists at the University of Pittsburgh were
able to prove that, by introducing a specific bacte-
rium, the immune system becomes strong against
cancer cells. Yes, a single bacterium. A finding that
represents a huge breakthrough in the treatment of
advanced tumors and will lead to great results in the
coming years.
05
Science
Towards the human microbiome,
a door to cure disease
15
15
Megatrends
15
Does mental health depend on our gut?
It may sound paradoxical, but the answer is yes. We
live in a time when mental health is increasingly
important, as we become increasingly aware of the
importance of taking care of our mind.
What is becoming increasingly clear to the scientific
community is that this "other pandemic" of our century,
which affects all types of people, regardless of their
social, economic or emotional position, may find a
solution in the intestinal microbiome.
Research will continue to explore the gut-brain axis
in the coming years after the recent and promising
findings, which open up a world of possibilities for the
cure of hundreds of pathol-ogies of all kinds.
Will biology, medicine or nutrition be able to undertake
these great efforts and innovations and bring about a
great change in medicine as we know it?
Science
SCIENCE
Shaping the human microbiome,
taming all disease
5. Ciencia: Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease
Shaping the human
microbiome,
taming all disease
60.5%
53.9%
51.3%
34.2%
Biotechnology and
critical diseases
mRNA based on
technology therapeutics
The discovery of
the microbiome
100%
50%
0%
0%
76 out of 96 answered
SCIENCE
Shaping the human microbiome,
taming all disease
The human microbiome, particularly the gut
microbiome, has emerged as a nexus of health
and disease. From inflammation to diabetes,
from Alzheimer's to depression, understanding
5. Ciencia: Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease
Shaping the human
microbiome,
taming all disease
60.5%
53.9%
51.3%
34.2%
Biotechnology and
critical diseases
mRNA based on
technology therapeutics
The discovery of
the microbiome
100%
50%
0%
0%
76 out of 96 answered
16
16
Megatrends
16
"I quit" has probably been one of the most frequently
uttered phrases by professionals during the year
2021. At least in the United States, where this sort
of mass labor exodus has been dubbed The Big Quit.
This provides a stark contrast with the more flexible,
global and liquid work models we have known so far,
allowing many professionals to have better work-life
balance and aspire to work for companies previously
unattainable to them due to geographical barriers.
Is the brain drain a truly global phenomenon?
The pandemic has triggered a phenomenon of hitherto
unknown consequences. As far as the figures are
concerned, there is no doubt: 11.5 million employees
in the United States (7.3 % of the country's workforce)
voluntarily left their jobs in the second half of 2021.
Even without another job lined up.
The reasons are intertwined with multiple factors:
from caring for sick or vulnerable family members
to latent situations of labor dissatisfaction. The
pandemic was merely the fuse that lit a flame that
had been smoldering for years.
The professional network LinkedIn supported this
phenomenon with data: 3 out of 4 employees in
the United States claim to have reconsidered their
working lives as a result of the pandemic. Then, the
consulting firm McKinsey offered a very convincing
statistic: 36 % of the employees who had resigned
had no new job in sight.
The so-called burnout syndrome—chronic stress
suffered by many workers who cannot find a way to
defuse it—has affected professionals all over the world.
Towards new ways of working
"Do I like what I do?", "Can I still enjoy some free
time afterwork?", "Am I happy with my routine?".
Questions like these are what mil-lions of workers
have been asking themselves during the pandemic.
Many, seeing that the answers to these questions
were not what they should have been, decided to act
on it. From the city to the countryside. From working
for others to freelancing. From meeting the de-
mands of a manager to becoming their own boss.
Flexibility and work-life balance have ceased to be
additional perks to become basic needs for many,
as we analyzed in the Future Trends Forum report on
the future of work. Far ahead, even, of other crucial
factors such as financial remuneration. Who said
money was the most important thing?
Our experts put it this way: this is the era of the
most connected and best-trained professionals;
what will the world of work in which they will develop
be like? Will technology continue to be the great
enabler of all processes? Are we facing the most
complex and complete world of work we have ever
seen? FTF experts will analyze this in detail soon.
Work
The potential of technology
06
17
17
Megatrends
17
Work
WORK
Changes in
employment models
over lifetime
Gigging, freelance instead of jobs
in organizations
6. Trabajo: Changes in employment models over lifetime
100%
50%
0%
Changes in employment
models over lifetime
Automation, robotics,
“meta” technology, and
the future of work, particularly
within the retail sector
The future of
public works
The forgotten industry:
Creative Economy and
its potential for job creation
Tools and knowledge
to generate alternatives
to job automation
Ecological work & Changes in
employment models over lifetime
Knowledge work offshoring
The possibility to create somekind of
Artificial life (robot or organic avatar)
may change the value of work.
57.7%
42.3%
42.3%
30.8%
23.1%
19.2%
19.2%
19.2%
26 out of 96 answered
18
18
Megatrends
18
2021 was the year of educational change, driven by
the global situation. But then, it remains to be seen if
we are facing a real paradigm shift over the next two
to three years.
Education is now more accessible than ever before–as
disconcerting as this may be—and, at the same time,
it has experienced a major set-back during the year
of the pandemic. On the one hand, students all over
the world have had to get used to attending classes
in front of a screen, studying more individually than
ever before and dispensing with the face-to-face
factor and all that it implies. On the other hand, this
situation has uncovered a digital divide between
families with enough devices to meet the needs
of their students and those who, perhaps, did not
even have a computer or tablet to be able to do their
homework from home.
What will education be like from now on? Un-
doubtedly, and as our experts have already analyzed,
it will be hybrid and multidimensional.
Technology, empathy and teamwork
Technology and its profound transforming power are,
indisputably, the driving force behind the general
change in the education system. It has been the
key element during the pandemic, but it had been
gaining momentum over the last few years and will
undoubtedly gain more and more weight in the short
and medium term.
The biggest challenge will be to adapt this model to
also include work on empathy and teamwork, which
can be left aside in an educational strategy that turns
a new page towards individualism, and away from fully
on-site models.
"Mom, I want to be a youtuber"
As the years go by, new jobs will emerge, and others
will disappear. Experts insist that 65% of the jobs
that will be held by today's children in the future do
not yet exist. For this reason, educational models are
increasingly tending to be more liquid, flexible and
skill-enhancing rather than maintaining static models
anchored in outdated schemes.
This does not mean that, if your child claims that
his or her dream is to be a youtuber, influencer
or gamer, you should worry too much. They have
totally different references to those of previous
generations, so their concerns are also different. The
important thing is to instill in them timeless values
and skills that allow them to be, simply, what they
want in the future.
Educating tomorrow's leaders
How to prepare a leader? The answer to this
question was not easy a few years ago and it is not
easy now. As work models evolve, so does leadership
in organizations.
Education
A new educational paradigm
in a changing world
07
19
19
Megatrends
19
In large and small companies alike, today's lead-
ers have nothing to do with those of the past.
Organizations are becoming more and more
horizontal and less hierarchical, even though
there are people who report to others. Knowing
how to appreciate the strengths of each team
member, having the ability to be entrepreneurial,
understanding the concerns of professionals and
being totally transparent are some of the keys. Yes,
principled leadership is here to stay. Or, as our experts
defined it: the challenge of soft skills is the new epi-
center of leadership education.
We must respond to new scenarios with new
professions, new professionals and new
business leaders.
Education
EDUCATION
A new education paradigm for a world of explosive change
The world has shifted from widget making to changemaking. The tools of change once available to the few--printing presses, content
development, research--are now at the fingertips of the many. Change is no longer linear and faster, it is explosive and omnidirectional.
We have moved away from assembly lines and defined skills of repetition to a connected world requiring empathy and teamwork. Yet,
even though 65% of job types will not exist for an entering kindergartener upon graduating year 12 or 16, our young people are still on
7. Educación: A new education paradigm for a world of explosive change
A new education paradigm
for a world of explosive change
Best practices and success
methods of education globally
How do we unleash the
creativity and passion of
young people to become
problem-solvers in STEM?
Promoting diversity
of thoughts
through Education
Education and
talent acquisition
Future of Education in the Age of
Distributed Ledger Technologies
55.6%
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
29.6%
14.8%
100%
50%
0%
27 out of 96 answered
20
20
Megatrends
20
It is often said that times of deep crisis are also great
opportunities to take a positive turn for the future.
This is exactly what is happening in the field of energy
transition and the fight against climate change.
The big environmental organizations were very
confident about 2021. But it still seems that we are
far from achieving the climate goals established in the
Paris agreement.
Are we on the road to a zero-emission world?
Faced with the inaction of some of the relevant
players in this global situation, individual action is the
determining factor in remedying this critical situation.
This does not mean that the action of a single
person can bring about a great change, but ra-
ther that individual awareness of climate-change
related problems has generated an enormous social
movement that is already un-stoppable. People are
now asking questions that were unthinkable just a
few years ago: "Where does this product come from?",
"What is the impact on the planet if I buy this brand or
that brand?
Moreover, it is these same consumers who openly
demand, through their decisions, more conscientious,
greener companies. A commit-ment that is more than
necessary to achieve the desired goal of a world with
zero emissions.
This translates into an exponential increase in CSR
initiatives, in the creation of new jobs re-lated to
these policies within organizations (whether large or
small) and in lines of external communication aimed,
ultimately, at the end consumer. These indicate that
not all is lost.
From Glasgow to Egypt
If the last CoP in Glasgow ended with a bittersweet
sensation due to the lack of determination in some of
the (non-binding) decisions that came out of it, a new
stage is now opening with an eye on Egypt. It will be
there that the COP27 will be held in November 2022
and where it will be possible to analyze whether there
has really been relevant progress.
“The world must wake up,” said the UN Secre-tary
General himself in September 2021.
Adapt or die
Change must be structural, not cyclical. This also
applies to companies. This is why the transfor-
mation in the business world will be so great that
some will survive, and others will be left behind,
unable to adapt.
The ability to generate positive impact is remaking
entire industries and generating a host of new forms
08
Sustainability
Green transition and business transformation
21
21
Megatrends
21
of growth. It will require investment and awareness,
as we are talking about a transformation that can be
equated to the digital transformation we have been
experiencing for years.
It's not about acting more sustainably; it's
about embedding sustainability into the DNA
of organizations.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY
Sostenibilidad: Environmental sustainability, green transition and business transformation
Environmental sustainability, green transition
and business transformation
83.3%
Sustainability in
the Food sector
58.3%
Responsive to climate change
and consumer demands
8.3%
100%
50%
0%
24 out of 96 answered
SUSTAINABILITY
Environmental
sustainability, green
transition and business
transformation
Sostenibilidad: Environmental sustainability, green transition and business transformation
Environmental sustainability, green transition
and business transformation
83.3%
Sustainability in
the Food sector
58.3%
Responsive to climate change
and consumer demands
8.3%
100%
50%
0%
24 out of 96 answered
22
22
Megatrends
22
It is estimated that by the year 2050 there will be
more than 2 billion people over the age of 60 living
in the world. As years go by, the number of elderly
people is increasing at a faster rate than the number
of new births. This situation paints a picture that
many consider daunting and difficult to maintain. But
why not approach it as an opportunity?
Living, not surviving
Thanks to technology applied to health and the
evolution of scientific research in many of the most
serious diseases, we can affirm that we will live better,
longer, healthier and happier lives. This takes us back
to a question already asked by our former experts:
What does living up to 150 years depend on?
How old are we when we are old? If you ask this
question to a person in their thirties, they will answer
that from age 60 onwards. If the same question is
posed to a 50-year-old, they would probably choose
to draw that line at 70.
A change might come about sooner than we think.
The challenge is not simply to extend life. Rather, it is
to make quality of life greater in old age.
Greater longevity would translate into independent
older adults. If they enjoy better health and have
technology as an ally, their level of independence will
multiply.
Focusing on the positive aspects of aging, rather than
on its darker side, means appreciating the universe
of opportunities it offers. After a lifetime of work,
it is time to enjoy all the knowledge and experience
acquired and the social relationships that have come
with age.
A discourse that should be modified from all angles
of social life. First, institutions and media outlets
have regularly paired old age with a host of negative
factors. Then, companies tend to focus on the
youth of professionals—an unsustainable model in
the short-term.
How will technology help to promote independence
in the elderly? And how can we promote care for
those who need it?
Aging in
the near future
Life expectancy versus quality of life
09
23
23
Megatrends
23
Extending working life
The traditional retirement age of 65 in Spain will
inevitably have to adapt to the current situation.
In an attempt to maintain the complex balance of the
national pension system, governments are currently
encouraging (for financial reasons) to postpone
retirement. However, it may increasingly become
a choice. Especially for those who will have a much
better quality of life than they expected, supported
by technological innovation.
Health and longevity go, now more than ever, hand
in hand.
Aging in the near future
LONGEVITY
The very near future of aging: not
just lifespan, health span
9. Longevidad: The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span
Agetech
The very near future of aging:
not just lifespan, health span
84.6%
42.3%
34.6%
26.9%
The culture of caring
The quest for immortality
100%
50%
0%
0%
26 out of 96 answered
LONGEVITY
The very near future of aging: not
just lifespan, health span
As the populations of most developed countries
age rapidly, multiple societal crises are looming
social, financial and medical.
9. Longevidad: The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span
Agetech
The very near future of aging:
not just lifespan, health span
84.6%
42.3%
34.6%
26.9%
The culture of caring
The quest for immortality
100%
50%
0%
0%
26 out of 96 answered
24
24
Megatrends
24
Americans activate their phones an average of 262
times a day, most of them to check notifications or
browse their social networks. The design of many
of the apps to which we dedicate hours and hours
of our time is designed to mimic the functioning of
addictive painkillers.
Add to this the legal vacuum in which they op-erate,
the complexity of regulating basic and fundamental
aspects regarding content accessible to minors,
cases of harassment or fraudulent uses that a slow
regulation is not able to respond to, and it becomes a
ticking bomb.
How can we put a stop to this situation and what
can be done in the short term? Jonathan Zittrain,
professor of cyber law at Harvard, has defined "user
loyalty ethics" that big tech companies should adopt.
"They shouldn't just see us as individuals to sell ads to,
they should treat us as people."
Something as simple and basic as "treating the user
as a person" is probably the cornerstone of social
networks in the short-term.
How to regain control?
As in other fields such as sustainability, the short-term
future of ethics in social networks and the proper use
of these powerful global communication and content
dissemination tools depends on self-responsibility
and awareness. Once again, it is unfeasible to think
that legisla-tion will advance at the breakneck speed
of change, so it is time to move from being part of the
problem to being part of the solution.
Avoiding hate speech, becoming informed and
educated citizens to distinguish between the
information in social networks or encouraging their
positive and responsible use will be the driving force
for change on a global scale.
Ethical social networks, educated citizens
As social networks grow older, so do we as a society.
It is surprising to recall that Facebook was created in
2004, Twitter in 2006 and Instagram in 2010. Just
16, 14 and 10 years, respectively, separate us from a
time when we lived without using all these platforms,
which have already become a fundamental part of
most people's routines.
Therefore, in the coming years we will see how these
platforms mature, finetuning ethical aspects that
had not been considered until now, improving and
implementing changes that society is demanding—and
will continue to demand, ever more firmly.
Likewise, the mature use of networks by citizens will
be more evident than ever, as we become aware of
the behind-the-scenes of platforms that are part of
our lives. Because ethical citizenship begins with a
responsible attitude, also on social networks. Will we
be up to the challenge?
The ethics
of social media
And their power to influence and divide communities
10
25
25
Megatrends
25
The ethics of social media
OTHERS
Ethics of social media
in influencing and
dividing communities
10. Otros: Ethics of social media in influencing and dividing communities
100%
50%
0%
Ethics of social media
in influencing and
dividing communities
Future of Urbanisation
Migration
Scientific
integrity
Vibrant
post-growth
societies
Remote laboratory on space
Space Tourism
True sharing of the violent and racist histories
Expanded connectivity
and interactivity of each
human consciousness
to electronic devices
46.4%
42.9%
32.1%
32.1%
28.6%
25%
17.9%
17.9%
14.3%
28 out of 96 answered
Editorial
27
27
Megatrends
27
2022
the year when all change is put to the test
After two years of unexpected twists and turns, dys-
topian experiences and changes that have forcefully
put us to the test at all levels, we can state (this time,
it seems, without fear of being wrong) that the much
talked-about new normal is already among us.
While 2020 and 2021 were years of drastic changes,
2022 starts a new page where we examine this reality.
But what are the issues that will be subjected to
indepth analysis? And, above all, what implications
will they have on our lives and our society?
Through the Future Trends Forum, the experts of
the Bankinter Innovation Foundation anticipate the
trends that will define the near future and answer
the big question: What will the world and society of
tomorrow be like?
Following the clues of the most relevant trends in each
area offered by the experts, the Bankinter Innovation
Foundation points at a future that will look towards the
metaverse, virtual universes. Also, towards blockchain
as a way to articulate worlds that we imagined one
day and that are drawn as great economic, social and
commercial opportunities.
We will also see artificial intelligence reach new
heights, moving closer to ethics and continuing its
transformation into a real tool at the service
of people.
New ways of working, which have brought more flexi-
ble and global work schemes, will be put to the test
this year and will have to prove to what extent they
represent a real structural change.
The same applies to education, a sector that has fa-
ced one of the greatest lessons in its history and must
now learn to build a new paradigm.
Technology and science are facing a great opportuni-
ty to completely transform our society and there are
many exciting questions and challenges that remain to
be solved. Throughout the year, we will be addressing
some of them with expert voices. Shall we continue?
28
28
Megatrends
28
Alper Utku
Alph Bingham
Ángel Cabrera
Antonio Damasio
Carolina Najar
Chin Nam
Clara Jiménez Cruz
Daniel Diez
David Isenberg
Eduardo Porter
Eugene Kandel
Gerald Anthony Harris
Gotzon Bernaola
Henry F. De Sio Jr.
Jacques haiech
Jane L Delgado
Jane Piper
JC Herz
Jim Olds
Juliana Rotich
Lisa Gansky
Lisa Rosenberg
Mark Ciccone
Michael Fertik
Miguel Arias
Natalia de Estevan-Ubeda
Paola Subacchi
Raul Rojas Gonzalez
Reinier van den Biggelaar
Russell J Howard
Sean Hill
Stephen Johnston
Talia Milgrom-Elcott
Tianhui Li
Victor H. Sáez Gómez
Wilfried Vanhonacker
William Haseltine
Yossi Yamin
Zhouying Jin
Julio Mayol
Dimitris Bountolos
Nacho de Pinedo
Jesus de la Quintana
Cristina Aranda Gutiérrez
Jens Schulte-Bockum
Renée Vassilos
Eric Bonabeau
Peter Coffee
Naby Diaw
Acknowledgements
Ahead of the future
Megatrends
2022

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Future Trends Forum Megatrends 2022

  • 2. 01. Technology: human connections in an increasingly virtual world 02. Advanced artificial intelligence and its consequences for humans 03. Metaverse, blockchain and cybersecurity 04. Mobility: where will the automation of public and private transport take us? 05. Science: towards the human microbiome, a door to cure disease 06. Work: the potential of technology 07. Education: a new educational paradigm in a changing world 08. Sustainability, ecologic transition and business transformation 09. Aging in the near future: life expectancy versus quality of life 10. The ethics of social media and their power to influence and divide communities Table of contents Introduction Trends Leader 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
  • 4. 4 4 Megatrends Answering this question is the main mission of the Future Trends Forum, the international think tank where the most prominent voices of the Bankinter Innovation Foundation analyze the details of the present in order to accurately sketch the future. Detecting the innovation trends that will change our technology, business models and society is no easy task. For this reason, the aim of this report is to lay out the current scene, in the context of 2022, in areas such as artificial intelligence, new work models and sustainability challenges, and to point out what will be the keys to their development in the medium term. In other words, to put the spotlight on the pre- sent; since that is where we find the answers to the main questions about the future and the clues as to the desired direction of our actions and strategies. Introduction The American computer scientist Alan Kay, a pioneer in programming languages, used to say that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it". That is why we are asking probing questions to the experts of the Bankinter Innovation Founda-tion: what innovative trends will impact our society in the medium term, in the next two, four or six years? More than 700 internationally renowned profes- sionals who collaborate with Bankinter Innovation Foundation have triaged and picked these ten trends. Once a year, our Future Trends Forum experts propo- se different topics and vote on those that will have the greatest impact. This is our way of sharing all our knowledge with society and anticipating the trends that will transform society through innovation. There are four categories: Technology and Scien- ce, Emerging Trends, Economic Progress and the Future of Society. Once obtained and analyzed, they are submitted to a vote that results in a final ranking. Our experts will explore the topics in this global list one by one over the course of 2022. And as a foretaste of the global analysis, we conclude in a single headline the link that unites all the sub- jects analyzed: "The future has arrived, and the only constant is change". TECHNOLOGY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BLOCKCHAIN, CYBERSECURITY, PRIVACY MOBILITY SCIENCE WORK EDUCATION SUSTAINABILITY LONGEVITY OTHERS Human connection in virtual and digital world 51.2% Advanced AI and its social human consequences 67.9% Metaverse and Blockchain 58.3% Updating look into private and public transport automation: where is it all going? 64.3% Environmental sustainability, green transition and business transformation 83.3% The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span 84.6% Ethics of social media in influencing and dividing communities 46.4% Changes in employment models over lifetime 57.7% A new education paradigm for a world of explosive change 55.6% Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease 60.5% 50% 50% 100% 0%
  • 6. 6 6 Megatrends 6 If there were a graph that traced personal in- teractions through technological devices over the years, it would very likely show a huge peak in March 2020. Driven by the global pandemic, we began to see social interactions of all kinds being transferred to the virtual world. From chatting with friends after work to water-cooler conversations with colleagues. Everything was now happening on a screen. We bid farewell to face-to-face. "When will normality return?" we asked ourselves. Now, almost two years later, we have finally understood that many changes have come to stay and that the future we had heard so much about was already among us. We need to see more of each other Yes, seeing each other then made more sense than ever. Video calls replaced voice calls with family and friends to bridge the gap left by distance and isolation. "Cameras on, please," was one of the most frequently heard requests at work meetings via Zoom. We realized how many nuances were lost in a long-distance conversation in which non-verbal communication played no role. But how do we adapt our needs as human beings to the virtual world in which we operate daily? Redefining work When was the last time you closed a business deal with a handshake? Gestures like that, as well as networking events, seem like routines of the past. Now, working life is being built on new foundations— technological foundations. We now enjoy greater globality, flexibility, mobility and accessibility. For some professions, technology and a change of mindset have granted access to labor markets previously limited due to geography. At the same time, organizations are placing professionals now more than ever at the center, seeking to generate satisfaction, retain talent and foster group dynamics that maintain team cohesion. Technology yes, but as humane as possible. Technology that brings people closer together Having a thousand friends on Facebook doesn't mean that those friendships are real. Maybe only ten or twenty of those contacts are really an important part of your life. And the rest? Acquaintances or people you once crossed paths with and are happy to hear from. Without social media, you'd probably never hear from most of them again. And that's what technology does to human re- relationships. As we discuss in the 'Technology Technology Human connections in an increasingly virtual world 01
  • 7. 7 7 Megatrends 7 and Inequality' report, these tools spearhead a hyper-connected world, where we can enrich our relationships, bring out the best in ourselves and fight inequality with powerful tools. How will they develop, what will be the next frontier of digitalization? We will analyze it over the course of 2022. Technology TECHNOLOGY Human connection in virtual and digital world With the emergence of Metaverse, Human connection in virtual and digital world 51.2% VR, AR, and Technology related to blending real and digital worlds 46.2% Collaborative robotics, man-robot interaction, and share 38.8% Are You Ready for the Quantum Computing Revolution? 35% Impact technologies in SMEs 16.2% Soft technology and business model innovation 16.2% Remote social connection technologies 15% Web3 - implications in the real world 27.5% Technology Revolution: Dystopia or Utopia Ahead 26.2% Becoming Superhuman: How Technology & Science Will Enable Us to be Our Best 35% 50% 50% 50% 100% 0% 1. Tecnología: Human connection in virtual and digital world 80 out of 96 answered
  • 8. 8 8 Megatrends 8 Joshua Barbeau, a freelance writer from Canada, was surfing the web one night in December 2020 when he stumbled upon GPT-3, a complex AI chat development software co-founded, among others, by Elon Musk. Barbeau, who had not gotten over the death of his fiancée, discovered that he could recreate her personality and talk to her again thanks to these algorithms, capable of adapting in a very complex way to human language. The conversation they had was so disturbing and real that its creators decided to close the website, called Project December, amidst great controversy. What happened to Barbeau is just another example of how delicate and complex it is to set limits to artificial intelligence. It is also a sign of how shocking it is to face a fully computerized world, a challenge that we will also analyze with expert voices in the coming months. AI, regulation and ethics In a context in which technology is advancing by leaps and bounds and regulation is following at an awfully slow pace, society must focus on ed-ucation. Understanding the advantages of applying artifi- cial intelligence in our daily lives, understanding its drawbacks and discovering our initial prejudices is a complicated but necessary exercise in order to move forward. Furthermore, once we have overcome the technological barriers, we must assess how to use them in a way to effect positive impact on society. The word "ethics" has probably tagged along the concept of artificial intelligence the most in recent years. Public Administrations strive to regulate this technology and ensure that it protects freedoms, rights and equality among citizens. One of the latest to take the initiative has been the UNESCO, which has issued a series of ethical recommendations that serve as a guide for applying AI in a way that protects people, respects their privacy, rights and freedoms, and promotes non-discrimination. Are robots taking our jobs? The application of artificial intelligence in the workplace will have as great an impact as the mechanization of agricultural work in the 20th century, which led to large-scale migrations from the countryside to the city and the creation of more urban societies. Part of the task of educating about these tech- nologies involves dispelling myths such as the fact that thousands of people will become unemployed and be replaced by robots or machines. At the Bankinter Innovation Foundation we analyzed this in detail last year: it is not a question of machines replacing humans, but of machines complementing them. This means that many professionals will be able to devote more hours of their time to less mechanical tasks. Advanced artificial intelligence And its consequences for humans 02
  • 9. 9 9 Megatrends 9 Why employ human assets in repetitive tasks that can be automated? Why not dedicate human resources to tasks associated with creativity, thinking or logic? This would undoubtedly be the next logical step in the optimization of human resources in organizations. In Spain, the OECD estimates that 22% of jobs could be automated in the next few years. On the other side of this story, it is estimated that 133 million new jobs will emerge worldwide by 2022. Which new professions will emerge? Which will be reinvented along the way? Warehouse per- sonnel, customer service managers, administra- tion positions... these are just a few examples of professions that will be completely reinvented by the impact of artificial intelligence and au-tomation. The name of the challenge going forward is learning. Advanced artificial intelligence 29.5% 50% 50% 50% 100% 0% ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Advanced AI and its social human consequences 2. IA: Advanced AI and its social human consequences Advanced AI and its social human consequences 67.9% Future of AI and surveillance Evolution of AI and organoids and their putative coupling Agrotech IA AI, Bias, and real-world harms - After Facebook Papers... what then? 33.3% 55.1% 12.8% 78 out of 96 answered
  • 10. 10 10 Megatrends 10 Ever since Mark Zuckerberg announced in October 2021 his firm commitment to metaverse, the word has crept into every conversation. What is it really, who is driving it, what will it mean in our daily lives? We do not know for sure what it is or what it will mean, but what we do know for sure is that we want to be there. At the Bankinter Foundation we are already reflecting on what the metaverse is, a very global concept from which we can affirm that we will never disconnect and which opens up an infinite world of possibilities. Experts such as Amir Baradan gave us answers on how adding virtual layers will affect the physical world and in 2022 we will continue to analyze the evolution of a technology that will play a major role in our future. It is not a game, it is the evolution of the Internet Yes, there have been forerunners—Second Life—of what Silicon Valley gurus call today the metaverse. But, like many other inventions and projects, aligning the idea with the right timing is crucial for it to be a real game changer. This is what seems to be the difference between the impact of the forerunners vs. metaverse now on our lives and on how we interact with each other as a society. The technology and the use we make of them are now prime and ripe to face a change of such magnitude. Because no, we are not talking about a video game or a virtual world for a few gamers and fans. We are talking about the natural next step of the Internet. And in this process, cybersecurity will play a key role, especially after a 2021 with several episodes of major, global cyber-attacks. There are many questions still to be answered in this area: how to prevent identity theft? What laws will govern metaverses? And which bodies will be responsible for their application and control? What are minors being exposed to? Where will the enormous amounts of data generated by users be stored and for what purposes will this data be used? Weaving safety nets strong enough to articulate systems that protect users is not an easy task, but it is a necessary one. Blockchain Buying virtual land for millions of dollars was unthinkable just a few years ago. But today, in 2022, the new real estate boom is taking place in the metaverse thanks to blockchain technology. In the month of December 2021 alone, this land-buying craze Metaverse, blockchain and cybersecurity 03
  • 11. 11 11 Megatrends 11 has attracted more than $100 million in investments. We have witnessed news one would think belonged to the realm of science fiction, such as the purchase of all the digital land of The Alhambra in Granada by a single buyer. In the report 'The Future of Money' we analyze, precisely, blockchain, which will be the basis of the metaverse economy. It is time to familiarize yourself with it, which will be used for all kinds of transactions and represent a promising market that experts look at with equal parts of wariness and enthusiasm. Forget shopping as we know it. How will this affect the various business sectors? Will it change the way we work and our personal lives? How will the development of paradigms such as quantum computing affect us? In just a few years, the answers to these questions will become clearer. Metaverse, blockchain and cybersecurity BLOCKCHAIN, 3. Blockchain y ciberseguridad: Metaverse and Blockchain 10% 50% 0% Metaverse and Blockchain 58.3% Cyber Security and Resilience 56.9% Blockchains and distributed ledgers Technologies 40.3% 0% 72 out of 96 answered BLOCKCHAIN, CYBERSECURITY, PRIVACY Metaverse and Blockchain The metaverse will be pushed by Facebook and other technology 3. Blockchain y ciberseguridad: Metaverse and Blockchain 10% 50% 0% Metaverse and Blockchain 58.3% Cyber Security and Resilience 56.9% Blockchains and distributed ledgers Technologies 40.3% 0% 72 out of 96 answered
  • 12. 12 12 Megatrends 12 It was 1985 when movies depicted a futuristic panorama of hoverboards and flying cars in the famous Back to the Future trilogy. But a few decades later, Marty McFly would have been disappointed to see that, even in 2022, cars, motorcycles and buses are still wheeling off. Although our cities are not as imagined in the story of that rebellious teenager and Emmet Brown, a.k.a. Doc, the next few years are shap-ing up to be a really promising period. Autonomous cars, at last? Fortunately, the technologies needed to make such vehicles work in a practical and functional way are evolving rapidly, and there are signs that autonomous driving is (now) much closer to becoming widespread. Smart cities, which we discussed in one of our mobility reports, will be the stage for these developments. Munich, for example, will start to enjoy a fleet of autonomous cabs this year. In September 2022, France will enact a new law regarding these vehicles, authorizing their traffic on public roads. In this case, they are especially designed for university campuses, shopping malls or communities. Also in Europe, Madrid will be the stage of a trilogy of automated vehicles: cars, delivery robots and drones. The latter will be particularly interesting for dodging the capital's traffic and delivering basic necessities to places such as hospitals. There are also plans to use them for home deliveries and replace riders. Despite this, the sector is fighting against some failures that have forced giants like Tesla to take a few steps back (and a lot of explanations). Controversies, accidents and complaints from the most suspicious users of this technology aside, Tesla remains firm in its intention to be the first to offer a market of 100% autonomous vehicles. And it will undoubtedly have a lot to say in this market in the medium term. Public transport, at the forefront It is in the city bus sector that we find the greatest advances in this field. Hong Kong, Singapore, Las Vegas, Michigan, Lyon, Freiburg, etc. have already had fully automated public transport vehicles for at least three years. Another key factor will be the way millennials and Generation Z understand transportation. For the most part, they do not care about driving or owning a vehicle in the way previous generations did. Moreover, sustainability is a determining factor in defining the world they want to live in, and shared transport or micro-mobility are already part of their way of under- standing life and caring for the planet. Therefore, Mobility Where will the automation of public and private transportation take us? 04
  • 13. 13 13 Megatrends 13 autonomous and sustainable public transport will be much more attractive to these users. Almost 90% of road accidents caused by human error. The automated vehicle sector clearly has a long and promising road ahead. The technology is almost ready. It remains for the laws to be ready as well. Mobility MOBILITY Updating look into private and public transport automation: 4. Movilidad: Updating look into private and public transport automation: where is it all going? Updating look into private and public transport automation: where is it all going? 64.3% Electric vehicles: anticipating and addressing challenges of scaling to mainstream adoption 60% Personal and cargo air mobility also Witz drones 15.7% 70 out of 96 answered 100% 50% 0% MOBILITY Updating look into private and public transport automation: where is it all going? 4. Movilidad: Updating look into private and public transport automation: where is it all going? Updating look into private and public transport automation: where is it all going? 64.3% Electric vehicles: anticipating and addressing challenges of scaling to mainstream adoption 60% Personal and cargo air mobility also Witz drones 15.7% 70 out of 96 answered 100% 50% 0%
  • 14. 14 14 Megatrends 14 Aaron Ciechanover, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, said that the day will come when all diseases have a cure. Even the creator of Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, envisioned a world without diseases in the year 2100, after donating billions of dollars to medical and scientific research. Is this realistic? To understand and help cure diseases as diverse as Alzheimer's, depression, diabetes or some types of cancer, the scientific community has agreed to focus on the intestinal microbiome. Our microbiome evolves and alters according to what we do and our routines. And also what we eat, a factor that we have already analyzed at the Bankinter Innovation Foundation as a real brake on aging. A second genome The genetics inherited from our parents is perceived as a kind of sentence against which we cannot fight. But the scientific community agrees that all this microbial information that we harbor in our body and that depends on external factors, and not on our DNA, functions as a "second genome" and carries much more weight than our genetics when it comes to developing all kinds of diseases. The statement by Californian university professor and science communicator Michael Pollan, who describes it as follows, helps us to understand such complex concepts: "I began to think of myself as a superorganism, in the first-person plural. Curing cancer, chimerical? Faced with a disease as aggressive, complex and diverse as cancer, scientific breakthroughs aimed at curing it completely can seem like a David versus Goliath struggle. Research that sheds light on the importance of the microbiome has meant, already in 2021, incredibly good news for the third most com-mon type of cancer in Spain and the second most common cause of death: colon cancer. Scientists at the University of Pittsburgh were able to prove that, by introducing a specific bacte- rium, the immune system becomes strong against cancer cells. Yes, a single bacterium. A finding that represents a huge breakthrough in the treatment of advanced tumors and will lead to great results in the coming years. 05 Science Towards the human microbiome, a door to cure disease
  • 15. 15 15 Megatrends 15 Does mental health depend on our gut? It may sound paradoxical, but the answer is yes. We live in a time when mental health is increasingly important, as we become increasingly aware of the importance of taking care of our mind. What is becoming increasingly clear to the scientific community is that this "other pandemic" of our century, which affects all types of people, regardless of their social, economic or emotional position, may find a solution in the intestinal microbiome. Research will continue to explore the gut-brain axis in the coming years after the recent and promising findings, which open up a world of possibilities for the cure of hundreds of pathol-ogies of all kinds. Will biology, medicine or nutrition be able to undertake these great efforts and innovations and bring about a great change in medicine as we know it? Science SCIENCE Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease 5. Ciencia: Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease 60.5% 53.9% 51.3% 34.2% Biotechnology and critical diseases mRNA based on technology therapeutics The discovery of the microbiome 100% 50% 0% 0% 76 out of 96 answered SCIENCE Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease The human microbiome, particularly the gut microbiome, has emerged as a nexus of health and disease. From inflammation to diabetes, from Alzheimer's to depression, understanding 5. Ciencia: Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease Shaping the human microbiome, taming all disease 60.5% 53.9% 51.3% 34.2% Biotechnology and critical diseases mRNA based on technology therapeutics The discovery of the microbiome 100% 50% 0% 0% 76 out of 96 answered
  • 16. 16 16 Megatrends 16 "I quit" has probably been one of the most frequently uttered phrases by professionals during the year 2021. At least in the United States, where this sort of mass labor exodus has been dubbed The Big Quit. This provides a stark contrast with the more flexible, global and liquid work models we have known so far, allowing many professionals to have better work-life balance and aspire to work for companies previously unattainable to them due to geographical barriers. Is the brain drain a truly global phenomenon? The pandemic has triggered a phenomenon of hitherto unknown consequences. As far as the figures are concerned, there is no doubt: 11.5 million employees in the United States (7.3 % of the country's workforce) voluntarily left their jobs in the second half of 2021. Even without another job lined up. The reasons are intertwined with multiple factors: from caring for sick or vulnerable family members to latent situations of labor dissatisfaction. The pandemic was merely the fuse that lit a flame that had been smoldering for years. The professional network LinkedIn supported this phenomenon with data: 3 out of 4 employees in the United States claim to have reconsidered their working lives as a result of the pandemic. Then, the consulting firm McKinsey offered a very convincing statistic: 36 % of the employees who had resigned had no new job in sight. The so-called burnout syndrome—chronic stress suffered by many workers who cannot find a way to defuse it—has affected professionals all over the world. Towards new ways of working "Do I like what I do?", "Can I still enjoy some free time afterwork?", "Am I happy with my routine?". Questions like these are what mil-lions of workers have been asking themselves during the pandemic. Many, seeing that the answers to these questions were not what they should have been, decided to act on it. From the city to the countryside. From working for others to freelancing. From meeting the de- mands of a manager to becoming their own boss. Flexibility and work-life balance have ceased to be additional perks to become basic needs for many, as we analyzed in the Future Trends Forum report on the future of work. Far ahead, even, of other crucial factors such as financial remuneration. Who said money was the most important thing? Our experts put it this way: this is the era of the most connected and best-trained professionals; what will the world of work in which they will develop be like? Will technology continue to be the great enabler of all processes? Are we facing the most complex and complete world of work we have ever seen? FTF experts will analyze this in detail soon. Work The potential of technology 06
  • 17. 17 17 Megatrends 17 Work WORK Changes in employment models over lifetime Gigging, freelance instead of jobs in organizations 6. Trabajo: Changes in employment models over lifetime 100% 50% 0% Changes in employment models over lifetime Automation, robotics, “meta” technology, and the future of work, particularly within the retail sector The future of public works The forgotten industry: Creative Economy and its potential for job creation Tools and knowledge to generate alternatives to job automation Ecological work & Changes in employment models over lifetime Knowledge work offshoring The possibility to create somekind of Artificial life (robot or organic avatar) may change the value of work. 57.7% 42.3% 42.3% 30.8% 23.1% 19.2% 19.2% 19.2% 26 out of 96 answered
  • 18. 18 18 Megatrends 18 2021 was the year of educational change, driven by the global situation. But then, it remains to be seen if we are facing a real paradigm shift over the next two to three years. Education is now more accessible than ever before–as disconcerting as this may be—and, at the same time, it has experienced a major set-back during the year of the pandemic. On the one hand, students all over the world have had to get used to attending classes in front of a screen, studying more individually than ever before and dispensing with the face-to-face factor and all that it implies. On the other hand, this situation has uncovered a digital divide between families with enough devices to meet the needs of their students and those who, perhaps, did not even have a computer or tablet to be able to do their homework from home. What will education be like from now on? Un- doubtedly, and as our experts have already analyzed, it will be hybrid and multidimensional. Technology, empathy and teamwork Technology and its profound transforming power are, indisputably, the driving force behind the general change in the education system. It has been the key element during the pandemic, but it had been gaining momentum over the last few years and will undoubtedly gain more and more weight in the short and medium term. The biggest challenge will be to adapt this model to also include work on empathy and teamwork, which can be left aside in an educational strategy that turns a new page towards individualism, and away from fully on-site models. "Mom, I want to be a youtuber" As the years go by, new jobs will emerge, and others will disappear. Experts insist that 65% of the jobs that will be held by today's children in the future do not yet exist. For this reason, educational models are increasingly tending to be more liquid, flexible and skill-enhancing rather than maintaining static models anchored in outdated schemes. This does not mean that, if your child claims that his or her dream is to be a youtuber, influencer or gamer, you should worry too much. They have totally different references to those of previous generations, so their concerns are also different. The important thing is to instill in them timeless values and skills that allow them to be, simply, what they want in the future. Educating tomorrow's leaders How to prepare a leader? The answer to this question was not easy a few years ago and it is not easy now. As work models evolve, so does leadership in organizations. Education A new educational paradigm in a changing world 07
  • 19. 19 19 Megatrends 19 In large and small companies alike, today's lead- ers have nothing to do with those of the past. Organizations are becoming more and more horizontal and less hierarchical, even though there are people who report to others. Knowing how to appreciate the strengths of each team member, having the ability to be entrepreneurial, understanding the concerns of professionals and being totally transparent are some of the keys. Yes, principled leadership is here to stay. Or, as our experts defined it: the challenge of soft skills is the new epi- center of leadership education. We must respond to new scenarios with new professions, new professionals and new business leaders. Education EDUCATION A new education paradigm for a world of explosive change The world has shifted from widget making to changemaking. The tools of change once available to the few--printing presses, content development, research--are now at the fingertips of the many. Change is no longer linear and faster, it is explosive and omnidirectional. We have moved away from assembly lines and defined skills of repetition to a connected world requiring empathy and teamwork. Yet, even though 65% of job types will not exist for an entering kindergartener upon graduating year 12 or 16, our young people are still on 7. Educación: A new education paradigm for a world of explosive change A new education paradigm for a world of explosive change Best practices and success methods of education globally How do we unleash the creativity and passion of young people to become problem-solvers in STEM? Promoting diversity of thoughts through Education Education and talent acquisition Future of Education in the Age of Distributed Ledger Technologies 55.6% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 29.6% 14.8% 100% 50% 0% 27 out of 96 answered
  • 20. 20 20 Megatrends 20 It is often said that times of deep crisis are also great opportunities to take a positive turn for the future. This is exactly what is happening in the field of energy transition and the fight against climate change. The big environmental organizations were very confident about 2021. But it still seems that we are far from achieving the climate goals established in the Paris agreement. Are we on the road to a zero-emission world? Faced with the inaction of some of the relevant players in this global situation, individual action is the determining factor in remedying this critical situation. This does not mean that the action of a single person can bring about a great change, but ra- ther that individual awareness of climate-change related problems has generated an enormous social movement that is already un-stoppable. People are now asking questions that were unthinkable just a few years ago: "Where does this product come from?", "What is the impact on the planet if I buy this brand or that brand? Moreover, it is these same consumers who openly demand, through their decisions, more conscientious, greener companies. A commit-ment that is more than necessary to achieve the desired goal of a world with zero emissions. This translates into an exponential increase in CSR initiatives, in the creation of new jobs re-lated to these policies within organizations (whether large or small) and in lines of external communication aimed, ultimately, at the end consumer. These indicate that not all is lost. From Glasgow to Egypt If the last CoP in Glasgow ended with a bittersweet sensation due to the lack of determination in some of the (non-binding) decisions that came out of it, a new stage is now opening with an eye on Egypt. It will be there that the COP27 will be held in November 2022 and where it will be possible to analyze whether there has really been relevant progress. “The world must wake up,” said the UN Secre-tary General himself in September 2021. Adapt or die Change must be structural, not cyclical. This also applies to companies. This is why the transfor- mation in the business world will be so great that some will survive, and others will be left behind, unable to adapt. The ability to generate positive impact is remaking entire industries and generating a host of new forms 08 Sustainability Green transition and business transformation
  • 21. 21 21 Megatrends 21 of growth. It will require investment and awareness, as we are talking about a transformation that can be equated to the digital transformation we have been experiencing for years. It's not about acting more sustainably; it's about embedding sustainability into the DNA of organizations. Sustainability SUSTAINABILITY Sostenibilidad: Environmental sustainability, green transition and business transformation Environmental sustainability, green transition and business transformation 83.3% Sustainability in the Food sector 58.3% Responsive to climate change and consumer demands 8.3% 100% 50% 0% 24 out of 96 answered SUSTAINABILITY Environmental sustainability, green transition and business transformation Sostenibilidad: Environmental sustainability, green transition and business transformation Environmental sustainability, green transition and business transformation 83.3% Sustainability in the Food sector 58.3% Responsive to climate change and consumer demands 8.3% 100% 50% 0% 24 out of 96 answered
  • 22. 22 22 Megatrends 22 It is estimated that by the year 2050 there will be more than 2 billion people over the age of 60 living in the world. As years go by, the number of elderly people is increasing at a faster rate than the number of new births. This situation paints a picture that many consider daunting and difficult to maintain. But why not approach it as an opportunity? Living, not surviving Thanks to technology applied to health and the evolution of scientific research in many of the most serious diseases, we can affirm that we will live better, longer, healthier and happier lives. This takes us back to a question already asked by our former experts: What does living up to 150 years depend on? How old are we when we are old? If you ask this question to a person in their thirties, they will answer that from age 60 onwards. If the same question is posed to a 50-year-old, they would probably choose to draw that line at 70. A change might come about sooner than we think. The challenge is not simply to extend life. Rather, it is to make quality of life greater in old age. Greater longevity would translate into independent older adults. If they enjoy better health and have technology as an ally, their level of independence will multiply. Focusing on the positive aspects of aging, rather than on its darker side, means appreciating the universe of opportunities it offers. After a lifetime of work, it is time to enjoy all the knowledge and experience acquired and the social relationships that have come with age. A discourse that should be modified from all angles of social life. First, institutions and media outlets have regularly paired old age with a host of negative factors. Then, companies tend to focus on the youth of professionals—an unsustainable model in the short-term. How will technology help to promote independence in the elderly? And how can we promote care for those who need it? Aging in the near future Life expectancy versus quality of life 09
  • 23. 23 23 Megatrends 23 Extending working life The traditional retirement age of 65 in Spain will inevitably have to adapt to the current situation. In an attempt to maintain the complex balance of the national pension system, governments are currently encouraging (for financial reasons) to postpone retirement. However, it may increasingly become a choice. Especially for those who will have a much better quality of life than they expected, supported by technological innovation. Health and longevity go, now more than ever, hand in hand. Aging in the near future LONGEVITY The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span 9. Longevidad: The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span Agetech The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span 84.6% 42.3% 34.6% 26.9% The culture of caring The quest for immortality 100% 50% 0% 0% 26 out of 96 answered LONGEVITY The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span As the populations of most developed countries age rapidly, multiple societal crises are looming social, financial and medical. 9. Longevidad: The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span Agetech The very near future of aging: not just lifespan, health span 84.6% 42.3% 34.6% 26.9% The culture of caring The quest for immortality 100% 50% 0% 0% 26 out of 96 answered
  • 24. 24 24 Megatrends 24 Americans activate their phones an average of 262 times a day, most of them to check notifications or browse their social networks. The design of many of the apps to which we dedicate hours and hours of our time is designed to mimic the functioning of addictive painkillers. Add to this the legal vacuum in which they op-erate, the complexity of regulating basic and fundamental aspects regarding content accessible to minors, cases of harassment or fraudulent uses that a slow regulation is not able to respond to, and it becomes a ticking bomb. How can we put a stop to this situation and what can be done in the short term? Jonathan Zittrain, professor of cyber law at Harvard, has defined "user loyalty ethics" that big tech companies should adopt. "They shouldn't just see us as individuals to sell ads to, they should treat us as people." Something as simple and basic as "treating the user as a person" is probably the cornerstone of social networks in the short-term. How to regain control? As in other fields such as sustainability, the short-term future of ethics in social networks and the proper use of these powerful global communication and content dissemination tools depends on self-responsibility and awareness. Once again, it is unfeasible to think that legisla-tion will advance at the breakneck speed of change, so it is time to move from being part of the problem to being part of the solution. Avoiding hate speech, becoming informed and educated citizens to distinguish between the information in social networks or encouraging their positive and responsible use will be the driving force for change on a global scale. Ethical social networks, educated citizens As social networks grow older, so do we as a society. It is surprising to recall that Facebook was created in 2004, Twitter in 2006 and Instagram in 2010. Just 16, 14 and 10 years, respectively, separate us from a time when we lived without using all these platforms, which have already become a fundamental part of most people's routines. Therefore, in the coming years we will see how these platforms mature, finetuning ethical aspects that had not been considered until now, improving and implementing changes that society is demanding—and will continue to demand, ever more firmly. Likewise, the mature use of networks by citizens will be more evident than ever, as we become aware of the behind-the-scenes of platforms that are part of our lives. Because ethical citizenship begins with a responsible attitude, also on social networks. Will we be up to the challenge? The ethics of social media And their power to influence and divide communities 10
  • 25. 25 25 Megatrends 25 The ethics of social media OTHERS Ethics of social media in influencing and dividing communities 10. Otros: Ethics of social media in influencing and dividing communities 100% 50% 0% Ethics of social media in influencing and dividing communities Future of Urbanisation Migration Scientific integrity Vibrant post-growth societies Remote laboratory on space Space Tourism True sharing of the violent and racist histories Expanded connectivity and interactivity of each human consciousness to electronic devices 46.4% 42.9% 32.1% 32.1% 28.6% 25% 17.9% 17.9% 14.3% 28 out of 96 answered
  • 27. 27 27 Megatrends 27 2022 the year when all change is put to the test After two years of unexpected twists and turns, dys- topian experiences and changes that have forcefully put us to the test at all levels, we can state (this time, it seems, without fear of being wrong) that the much talked-about new normal is already among us. While 2020 and 2021 were years of drastic changes, 2022 starts a new page where we examine this reality. But what are the issues that will be subjected to indepth analysis? And, above all, what implications will they have on our lives and our society? Through the Future Trends Forum, the experts of the Bankinter Innovation Foundation anticipate the trends that will define the near future and answer the big question: What will the world and society of tomorrow be like? Following the clues of the most relevant trends in each area offered by the experts, the Bankinter Innovation Foundation points at a future that will look towards the metaverse, virtual universes. Also, towards blockchain as a way to articulate worlds that we imagined one day and that are drawn as great economic, social and commercial opportunities. We will also see artificial intelligence reach new heights, moving closer to ethics and continuing its transformation into a real tool at the service of people. New ways of working, which have brought more flexi- ble and global work schemes, will be put to the test this year and will have to prove to what extent they represent a real structural change. The same applies to education, a sector that has fa- ced one of the greatest lessons in its history and must now learn to build a new paradigm. Technology and science are facing a great opportuni- ty to completely transform our society and there are many exciting questions and challenges that remain to be solved. Throughout the year, we will be addressing some of them with expert voices. Shall we continue?
  • 28. 28 28 Megatrends 28 Alper Utku Alph Bingham Ángel Cabrera Antonio Damasio Carolina Najar Chin Nam Clara Jiménez Cruz Daniel Diez David Isenberg Eduardo Porter Eugene Kandel Gerald Anthony Harris Gotzon Bernaola Henry F. De Sio Jr. Jacques haiech Jane L Delgado Jane Piper JC Herz Jim Olds Juliana Rotich Lisa Gansky Lisa Rosenberg Mark Ciccone Michael Fertik Miguel Arias Natalia de Estevan-Ubeda Paola Subacchi Raul Rojas Gonzalez Reinier van den Biggelaar Russell J Howard Sean Hill Stephen Johnston Talia Milgrom-Elcott Tianhui Li Victor H. Sáez Gómez Wilfried Vanhonacker William Haseltine Yossi Yamin Zhouying Jin Julio Mayol Dimitris Bountolos Nacho de Pinedo Jesus de la Quintana Cristina Aranda Gutiérrez Jens Schulte-Bockum Renée Vassilos Eric Bonabeau Peter Coffee Naby Diaw Acknowledgements
  • 29. Ahead of the future Megatrends 2022