Closing keynote at Advancing Credentials for Career Pathways Institute 2018, Winston-Salem, NC.

1. The Future of Work:
Are we Ready?

2. Onceupona
time…

3. Butmorethan
anythingelse…

4. Now, “Future of Work”
is a thing.

5. Everyone’stalking
aboutit.
(Nearly 3 billion results? Mom and apple pie
together do not get you to 2 billion.)

6. Aquickpeek?

7. Manythreads…
New York Times, Dec 11, 2017
1. Jobs, wages
& income

8. 2. “Unjobs”

9. 3. Skills
(& Gaps)
Big Think, Michio Kaku, June 24, 2018

10. 4. New Kinds of
“Organizations”
Hilo Motion Pictures

11. And in NC?

13. (Member of state
workforce board)

15. Big“Aha…”
People value stability and
increased wages over time. The
economy is creating the
opposite – lower wages,
volatility.

16. #FOW. Everyone
is talking about it.
No really.

17. Will,28.DrivesforUber&Lyft,
studiescomputerscience.Says
thefutureofworkis“people–
companiescomeandgo.”
Will,28.DrivesforUber&
Lyft,studiescomputer
science.Saysthefutureof
workis“people–
companiescomeandgo.”

18. “Yea,robots.McDonald’shasgot
them.Everybody’sgettingthem.”
Brittany

19. “Ifyoudon’thaveahustle,you
aren’tgoingtohaveajob.”
Dwight&Tanisha “If you don’t have a
hustle, you aren’t going
to have a job.””Dwight & Tanisha

20. A tsunami of reports about AI, robotics,
machine learning, deep learning,
prediction machines, automation,
robotics, fourth industrial revolution or
[insert favorite phrase here].

21. 1. Insurance underwriters
2. Bank tellers
3. Financial analysts
4. Construction workers
5. Inventory managers/stockers
6. Farmers
7. Taxi drivers
8. Manufacturing workers
9. Journalists
10.Movie stars
Curious?

28. Talkingpastone
another?
Accenture Survey (2018)
Auto Execs
§ 84% say they will automate tasks or jobs to a “large
or very large degree” over next three years. (75% say
industry will be “transformed.”)
§ 2% plan to significantly increase investment in skills
training.
Auto Workers
§ 2/3 of employees say “intelligent machines will
make their jobs simpler” and “encourage
creativity and innovation.”

29. Positivestories,too.

30. Andscaryones…
“It will soon be obvious that
half our tasks can be done
better at almost no cost by
AI.This will be the fastest
transition humankind has
experienced,and we’re not
ready for it.”

32. So much noise.
So little signal.

33. In the next thirty or
ten or five years,
47%1 or 60%2 or
between 6% and
39%3 of jobs will
change, disappear,
or be automated.
1 Source:The Future of Employment (the famous Oxford Study, 2013)
2 Source: McKinsey Global institute: A Future that Works (report on automation of work, not jobs, 2017)
3 Source: Forrester Research: Future of Jobs (report on jobs, automation, and augmentation, 2017)

34. We can safely say that “upcoming
workforce transitions could be very large.”
McKinsey,WhattheFutureofWorkwillmeanforJobs,SkillsWages(2017)

35. Thefuture? Less2.5Mtruckdriversof3.5Mtoday

36. MeetSam.

37. Some humans are fighting back.

38. But it’s not just
automation.

39. Critical context:
We’re fragile.

40. Thestomachchurners.§ 3.8% Unemployment, but dramatic rise in gig
economy: 54-68M workers lack benefits of “jobs.”
(McKinsey, 2017)
§ One in two Americans cannot cover a $400
unexpected expense. (Federal Reserve, 2015)
§ College debt tops $1.3T (Federal Reserve, 2017)
§ Income inequality higher than at any time in history
(Andy Sum, 2013)
§ Half American families have no retirement savings, of
those who do, the median value is $5,000 (EPI, 2011)
§ Income volatility is rising faster than income
inequality (Brookings, citing J. Hacker)
§ Stock Market at record levels, but ½ working
Americans don’t own any. And the wealthiest 10%
own 90% of it.
Afewfacts…

41. Wheretolive?

42. Agenerationago,
yourchancesof
doingbetterthan
yourparentswere
nearlydouble.

44. MajorEvent#1
(undisclosed
locationeast)
“One in seven Americans are likely to
lose their jobs.”
Famous Person
* Chris Hughes & the Stockton project do tie into policy.

45. MajorEvent#2
(undisclosed
locationwest)
“It’s not hard to imagine – a bobcat-bot,a
retail-bot,Siri – jobs for those displaced will
be the defining challenge of our time.“
Famous People

46. MajorEvent#3
(undisclosed
locationwest)
“We should have a program that trains people who are laid
off or at-risk being laid off for new jobs.”
Famous People in the Social Policy space (!!)

47. Enough.
Please.

48. Problem vs. Solutions?

49. What to do?
(Hmmm…How about…
#ACCP18?!)

50. 1. Get real about transitions
(that’sonus,allofus…)
Solution#1:
Forgenewcareer
paths.

52. 1. Get real about transitions
(that’sonus,allofus…)
Solution#2:Build
modernstudent
supports

53. Photo credit: Kim Oanh Nguyen photosbykim.com

54. Career Advising 2018?

55. https://www.spra.com/m-cam/

56. Solution3:
Leverage

57. Trident
Tech:Go
Public
https://youtu.be/GsJC7miO9oc

58. SanDiego:
Takeonthe
bigstuff

59. Awordabout
training…
“Government has a huge role
to play:
1) We have to make benefits
portable.
2) Streamline but don’t
eliminate the regulatory
environment.
3) Training – this is the one
I’ve seen the fewest good
answers for.
4) Housing in urban America.”

60. Jointhe
wider
ecosystem
§Florida commissioned a report about what
employers want from workforce system, only 2/3
wanted help with hiring or training “full-time
employees” (not yet published).
§Samaschool and kin
§So many WDQI states (e.g., Ohio Education
Research Center at “the” OSU”)
§Learning platforms (General Assembly, Skillshare,
Western Governors University)
§Institutional Innovators (Arizona State University,
Wallace Community College)
§Online/Offline Networks (Meetups/LinkedIn)
§SBDCs, Public Benefit Corps, Intrastate investing,
localism, etc.

61. Since3500B.C.

62. Because the future is already here—it’s just not very evenly distributed.
William Gibson
https://medium.com/the-tomorrow-project

63. Keepintouch!
Kristin Wolff, Social Policy
Research Associates (SPR)
@kristinwolff
Kristin_Wolff@spra.com
Your turn!