1. Tallinn, Estonia 14.11.2008
Dr. Sam Inkinen
Senior Consultant, Futurist
Dicole Ltd.
www.dicole.com - www.inkinen.org
Future of Social
Networks & Open
Innovation
The cultural requirements for
Web 2.0 powered innovation,
networking, and collaboration

2. Artist: Lotta Viitaniemi, Story: Kim Forsman & Teemu Arina Ⓒ Dicole Ltd.

3. The Age of Agility:
When memories exceed dreams, the end
is near. The hallmark of a truly
successful organization is the willingness
to abandon what made it successful and
start fresh.
– Michael Hammer

4. Digitality is (all) over.
– Espen Aarseth

5. Changes on the web
WEB X.O

6. Source: Jimmy Maymann, The Social Metropolis (2008)

7. Source: Jimmy Maymann,
The Social Metropolis (2008)

8. Source: Jimmy Maymann,
The Social Metropolis (2008)

9. Web as a platform
Photo: Christopher Chan
“What happens when information
becomes social and more than one billion
internet users add their contributions and
creativity to the media landscape?”
– Jimmy Maymann: The Social Metropolis (2008)

10. Software above a
single device
Photo: *One*

11. Data as the new
Intel inside
Photo: _fabrizio_

12. Photo: Donna Cymek
Harnessing collective
intelligence

13. Rich Internet
Applications
(RIA, AJAX)
LBS Services,
Context
Knowledge

14. Photo: ulterior epicure
Lightweight business
models, e.g. SaaS
(Software as a Service)

15. Sales
Products
Head (20%)
Tail (80%)
Signal vs. noise Required filtering power
Ref: Chris Anderson
Long Tail

16. “The project would
have been a success
if everything had
gone as we planned.”

17. “Everything would
work out if we had
the right information
at the right time at
the right place.”
Myth

18. Photo: Shapeshift
The integrated pattern of human
knowledge, belief, and behavior that
depends upon the capacity for
learning and transmitting knowledge
to succeeding generations.
– Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary
Culture

19. 1) Anonymous voting
2) Open conversation
3) Prediction markets
4) Internet crowdsourcing
Ref: Cass R. Sunstein, Infotopia
Connecting
Many Minds

20. Anonymous
Voting
Examples
• Kasparov vs. Internet team
• Estimating temperature
• “Ask audience” in Who
Wants to be a Millionaire
• Movie ratings in IMDB
• Youtube video ratings

21. Condorcet Jury Theorem
Why groups can be wise?
Marquis de Condorcet, 1743–94

22. 1) Diversity of opinion
2) Independence
3) Decentralization
4) Aggregation
Ref: James Surowiecki,Wisdom of the Crowds
Wise
Crowds

23. Each of them by himself
may not be of good
quality; but when they all
come together it is
possible that they may
surpass – collectively
and as a body, although
not individually – the
quality of the few best.
– Aristotle on Collective Intelligence,
Politics, circa 334–23 BC.
Conversation

24. • Groupthink and unthinking
• Amplification of falsehoods
• Strategic behavior
• Use of heuristics
• From confidence to extremism
• Focus on personal prospects
• Design by committee
Photo: Mike9Alive
Traps

25. Design by Committee

26. Photo: .supernova.
Weak
Signals
Filters
• Surveillance filter
• Mentality filter
• Power filter
– Dr. Igor Ansoff, 1984

27. • Group polarization
• Reputational cascades
• Informational cascades
• Hidden profiles
• Social pressures
• Common knowledge effects
• Algorithmic bias (e.g. Google)
Biases

28. Diversity of Thought is
Accuracy of Thought

29. 1
Cow
2
Chicken
3
Grass
Ref: Richard Nisbett
What doesn’t fit in?

30. Prediction
Markets
1) Economic incentives
motivate participation
2) Disclosing information is
crucial for winning
3) Those who do not know,
will step aside

31. Ecosystem way:
Internet
Crowdsourcing
Photo: Hugo*

32. ■ An idea becomes an innovation
only through wide adoption,
either through:
■ centralized resources
(traditional innovation)
■ decentralized resources
(open innovation)
commons-based peer-production
What is Innovation?

33. How’s your innovation pipeline?
Photo: Pavlos Pavlidis
“Discovery consists of seeing what
everybody has seen and thinking what
nobody has thought.”
– Albert Szent-Györgyi (1893–1986, Nobel Laureate in Physiology)

34. Traditional Innovation

35. Photo: ippei + janine
Open & Organic
Innovation

36. What kind of innovation?
Source: Henry Chesbrough, 2007
Business model
innovation
Product &
service innovation
Closed OpenHow you innovate
Whatyouinnovate
Changing
the how
Changing
thewhat
Traditional
product
development
Challenge:
ecosystem
innovation
Challenge:
new ways
to capture value
Challenge:
be an innovation
partner of choice

37. Image: Felippe Torres
In the future, organizations will
compete on:
Who is able to create a rich
user community improving
their products where users
want to belong
Future Challenge

38. “There’s something fundamental about
organizations and leadership that
makes it almost impossible for people
inside a business to change their own
industry. Industries are based on
formats that are basically legacies of
military hierarchies.”
Ricardo Semler
Semco
Kuva: GustavoG

39. “Virtually everything new seems to
come from the 20 percent of their time
engineers here are expected to spend on
side projects. They certainly don't come
out of the management team.”
Eric Schmidt
Google CEO
Kuva: GustavoG

40. Ref: Bradley Horowitz, Jacob Nielsen
1% creators
100% consumers
10% synthesizers
Participation Inequality

41. Low
Threshold
High
Engagement
Reading
Rating
Tagging
Commenting
Subscribing
Linking
Recommending
Reflecting
Collaborating
Moderating
Ownership
Collaborative
Intelligence
(explicit creation)
Collective
Intelligence
(implicit creation)
Ref: Teemu Arina, based
on Ross Mayfield
Participation Power Law

42. CASE
Winner of World
Summit Award
Finland 2009
in e-business &
category

43. ‣ See all
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Teemu Arina
employer
‣ Edit employer
Itämerenkatu 30 A 10
FI-00180 Helsinki, Finland
teemu@dicole.com
Blog: tarina.blogging.fi
Skype: infe00
Phone: +358 - 50 -555 7636
facebook
jaiku
+ Add contact
CEO, founder
Dicole Oy
Kansakoulukuja 3, 2 krs.
FI-00100 Helsinki, Finland
+358 - 50 - 555 7636
“All progress depends
on the unreasonable man”
‣ Edit details
“ I seek to understand the changing
nature of organizations as they shift
from the industrial era to the knowledge
intensive era. What new methods,
structures, skills and tools will they
need? As an entrepreneur, programmer,
teacher and designer I design, build and
deliver web-based interaction
technology (or social software) that
enables people to co-create together in
a distributed knowledge intensive
environment.”
Digitalization
grade +10
education
‣ Edit education
School
Degree
Other degree
Target degree
Skill profileHSE
Bachelor
Knowledge kung-fu
Evil priest
“Technology is my sixth sense.”
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case Challenge Digitalization
e-banking e-invoicing eu idea
tags of interest
Professional description

45. CASE
Dicole
Innovation
Work
Environment

46. Blogs Wikis Networking
Seeds Media Feeds
Tags

47. Source: Jimmy Maymann,
The Social Metropolis (2008)

48. Source: Jimmy Maymann,
The Social Metropolis (2008)

49. Source: Jimmy Maymann,
The Social Metropolis (2008)

50. Source: Jimmy Maymann,
The Social Metropolis (2008)

51. Source:JimmyMaymann,
TheSocialMetropolis(2008)

52. Skeleton
Automation, Real-
time processes,
Operative
technologies – Back-
bone for business processes
Ref: Teemu Arina, Illustration: Lotta Viitaniemi
Senses
Blogs, Media –
Reflection in and on action
Nervous system
Feeds, Search, APIs –
Sharing, discovering and
tapping into reflections
Brain
Wikis, tagging –
Connecting and remixing
reflectons
Blood system
Social networking,
Real-time
communications,
Network analysis –
Optimizing interaction flow
Organic Enterprise

53. Photo: tashland
Command & Control
should become
Collaboration and Communication

54. Contact
Company website: www.dicole.com
Dr. Sam Inkinen
Senior Consultant, Futurist
Dicole Ltd.
sam@dicole.com
www.inkinen.org
“Imagination is more important than knowledge.”
– Albert Einstein
Mr.Teemu Arina
CEO
Dicole Ltd.
teemu@dicole.com
tarina.blogging.fi